The Scott response
Just as I did with Scott Shaffer a few days ago, I’m going to publish Audrey Scott’s refutation of points made by yours truly and others in its entirety, aside from minor formatting revisions to make this work on my site. It will not be blockquoted.
This comes from a letter to Central Committee members, with two pages being a general letter and a third page entitled “My Response.” I’ll have additional comments at the conclusion, which will come after Audrey’s note commences on the other side of the jump.
Maryland GOP: home for interesting electoral action?
At the risk of playing a little too much inside baseball again, it’s interesting to note that the Republican primaries for various Maryland Congressional seats (all but the First District) and U.S. Senate post aren’t the only games in town this April, at least not for those who serve on the various county Central Committees.
The race for the Republican National Committeewoman seat which opened up when Joyce Terhes opted not to seek another term has already made news around these parts, but there was no counterpart on the National Committeeman side, where Louis Pope is presumably seeking another term. Until today.
Palin: ‘I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination’
It looks like the GOP field is set, and the cries of “run Sarah run” were ignored. Tonight Sarah Palin wrote on her Facebook page:
After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States. As always, my family comes first and obviously Todd and I put great consideration into family life before making this decision. When we serve, we devote ourselves to God, family and country. My decision maintains this order.
My decision is based upon a review of what common sense Conservatives and Independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s governors to Congressional seats and the Presidency. We need to continue to actively and aggressively help those who will stop the “fundamental transformation” of our nation and instead seek the restoration of our greatness, our goodness and our constitutional republic based on the rule of law.
From the bottom of my heart I thank those who have supported me and defended my record throughout the years, and encouraged me to run for President. Know that by working together we can bring this country back – and as I’ve always said, one doesn’t need a title to help do it.
I will continue driving the discussion for freedom and free markets, including in the race for President where our candidates must embrace immediate action toward energy independence through domestic resource developments of conventional energy sources, along with renewables. We must reduce tax burdens and onerous regulations that kill American industry, and our candidates must always push to minimize government to strengthen the economy and allow the private sector to create jobs.
Those will be our priorities so Americans can be confident that a smaller, smarter government that is truly of the people, by the people, and for the people can better serve this most exceptional nation.
In the coming weeks I will help coordinate strategies to assist in replacing the President, re-taking the Senate, and maintaining the House.
Thank you again for all your support. Let’s unite to restore this country!
God bless America.
Sarah Palin
After the harsh treatment afforded to Sarah during the 2008 campaign and its aftermath, including her resignation as governor of Alaska, this decision isn’t all that surprising. Many pundits have opined that Sarah is such damaged goods as a candidate that she would have little to no chance of winning, but could do well with her broad base of supporters in doing just what she plans to do to help elect other candidates.
With that, and barring an extremely late change of heart by someone who’s decided against running this time, it appears the field of a dozen serious contenders for the Republican nomination is set. The remaining 8 to 10 percent of those polled who were pining for a Palin bid will now be free to gravitate to their second choice.
It’s worthy to note as well that Sarah has her own political action committee (SarahPAC) which can provide financial assistance to candidates she sees fit to back. And while her endorsement of Brian Murphy in last year’s race for governor of Maryland didn’t push him to victory, it placed him on the map and created a stir in state Republican circles.
Furthermore, as she tells radio host Mark Levin, not running leaves her “unshackled” and “allowed to be more active” in the effort to promote her brand of conservatism.
So there’s no Palin 2012 campaign. Since she’s only 47 years old, though, there’s plenty of time for her to gather her chits for a future run. I don’t think Sarah Palin is through with electoral politics and she sure as heck isn’t going away – you betcha.
WCRC meeting – June 2011
If you missed this meeting, you missed an opportunity to meet one of the leading candidates to unseat incumbent U.S. Senator Ben Cardin.
Of course, we went through the usual business of doing the Lord’s Prayer, Pledge of Allegiance, and reading of the minutes, but those who attended were really there to hear from and interact with Senate candidate Daniel Bongino.
With his family and campaign advisor Brian Murphy in tow, Bongino told those assembled that this was his fourth trip to the Eastern Shore in 20 days – however, he was hoping his campaign wouldn’t be broken by upcoming toll hikes for the Bay Bridge. Dan portrayed the meeting as a “job interview…you don’t need me, I need you.”
Dan related that he decided to run for the U.S. Senate with “no Plan B…I left it all on the line for this.” But he got into the race to run an “aggressive” campaign against the incumbent. “The other side is not taking prisoners,” said Bongino.
Citing the three key issues as education, health care, and the economy, Dan laid into the left’s three-pronged philosophy espoused by Cardin. Their agenda items always include a price control mechanism, a third-party payer, and coercion of some sort. There’s little or no market component with government involvement.
Government has created a number of systems, particularly in health care, that are ‘designed to fail,” including the Great Society. “We made poverty comfortable” during that era, and to Bongino that was “a travesty.”
He also answered a number of audience questions on Medicaid, competing against Ben Cardin, the PATRIOT Act, our involvement in Libya, ending the Federal Reserve, and immigration. For these queries Dan had a number of compelling answers.
Bongino gave a short economic treatise on why one is more likely to die if they’re on Medicaid than they are with no insurance at all. When one considers cost and quality in spending other people’s money on other people (i.e. how government works) “the most inefficient way to spend money is government, every time.” And since there is no regard for either cost or quality with a third-party payer system “(Ben Cardin) is going to sell everyone up the river with this healthcare plan, and he knows it,” stated Bongino.
In competing against Cardin, Dan said it’s a matter of not forfeiting the minority vote as Republicans are prone to do – telling him otherwise is “garbage.” Yet the Democrats have done nothing for the minority population, said Bongino. “We’re not knocking on the doors (in minority areas,” he continued, “Let them slam the door in my face…but I’m going to fight there.”
Those of the libertarian persuasion may have a couple objections, but Bongino thinks that “we need the PATRIOT Act (because) to abuse it takes an act of God” and dismisses the idea of ending the Fed: “Every country needs a central bank.” Yet there are provisions of the PATRIOT Act he would like to see sunsetted, and his support for a central bank comes with the caveat that they need to eliminate one part of the Fed’s dual mandate to control inflation and unemployment. We will either default on our debt or inflate our way out of it, said Dan.
On the other hand, Dan doesn’t support the War Powers Act. He questioned why we are in Libya and Afghanistan, saying “our boys” were being killed there as thanks from the people who we were trying to save. “We need our kids back…(the Taliban and tribal supporters) will kill us every minute we are there; they don’t know they’ve been defeated.”
He concluded with conceding that there’s “zero chance of deporting 12 million (illegal immigrants)” but believes we need to secure the border first before attempting any sort of immigration reform.
Afterward, the reaction to Dan was generally positive, save for a few items he knew could rub some the wrong way. “Honest and refreshing” was the verdict from one observer.
And you can decide for yourself as I recorded Bongino’s remarks last night.
Still, we weren’t finished. Dave Parker gave us the rundown on Central Committee happenings, which included recommending two new members to the Wicomico County Board of Education. Not that it may mean much – “Martin O’Malley doesn’t care” about the Republican party’s desires, conceded Parker – but we did our assigned task.
He also talked about the Catholic Conference and their support of the DREAM Act (against the SB167 petition drive.) “(Their flyer) reads like Democratic Party talking points,” asserted Dave. CASA de Maryland with their aggressive tactics at public places where petition signatures are being solicited and other illegal immigrant supporters were “looking for ways to disenfranchise voters,” Dave said. A copy of the petition was passed around, with more signatures being added to those already in.
Shawn Jester informed us the next Lower Shore Young Republican meeting will be August 9 and talk about redistricting.
Julie Brewington made a pitch for a new group called the Constitutional Conservatives for Maryland PAC, which is holding a raffle fundraiser. (Once their website is up, there will be a link to it from my site.)
Other internal business discussed was a membership drive and potential scholarship. We also decided not to skip the July meeting, as has happened previously in non-election years. One suggested speaker was Robin Holloway, who is leaving the Wicomico County Board of Education after two terms.
So, since we decided it would be so, our next meeting will be July 25. While it’s likely Robin Holloway would be our speaker, stay tuned. We have about a half-dozen U.S. Senate candidates to go.
Senate hopeful Bongino featured WCRC speaker
For the first time since Brian Murphy spoke to us last July, a statewide candidate will grace the Wicomico County Republican Club stage – ironically, with a boost from the aforementioned 2010 candidate for governor.
Daniel Bongino is making his first political run a challenging one by running in a statewide race to unseat incumbent Senator Ben Cardin. Cardin defeated former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele in 2006, keeping the seat in Democratic hands after longtime Senator Paul Sarbanes retired following a thirty-year run.
Featuring the tagline, “we did nothing wrong, government failed us,” Bongino’s key issues appear to be the economy, health care, energy, the environment, national security, and immigration. Certainly he’ll discuss these and other topics Monday evening.
The meeting, as always, will be held at the Chamber of Commerce building at 144 E. Main Street in downtown Salisbury. We gather for a social time at 6:30 p.m. with the meeting beginning around 7:00.
It’s likely that Bongino will be the first of several GOP Senatorial candidates to grace our stage, since six people are currently in the race. However, Bongino is coming off a strong second-place finish in my most recent Senate poll, just behind 2010 nominee Eric Wargotz.
Murphy’s man
After teasing the Maryland public over the last week, 2010 gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy made it official: he’s not running for the U.S. Senate. Instead, he’s backing a first-time candidate who’s spent most of his professional career in law enforcement and who believes, “we did nothing wrong, government failed us.” If you look at this hopeful’s issue page it reads as a fairly conservative platform both economically and in foreign policy.
Daniel Bongino is a 36-year-old Severna Park resident who has no political resume, but instead has worked for both the Secret Service and the New York City police department over the last sixteen years. It would seem a curious choice for Murphy to be backing this neophyte, but Brian hasn’t played by the conventional wisdom yet and probably won’t be doing so anytime soon.
Of course, the obvious question is whether Bongino will be able to take advantage of Murphy’s backing to vault past the other contenders for the GOP’s U.S. Senate challenger slot. Most figure incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin a virtual lock for re-election for a second term but Daniel joins a fairly diverse field of five Republican contenders; a field which includes 2010 GOP nominee Eric Wargotz. Other Republican aspirants are former District 31 State Senate candidate William Capps, political neophyte Rick Hoover, and perennial candidate Corrogan Vaughn.
Wargotz would have to be considered as the odds-on favorite, but it’s worth noting that Eric only garnered 38% of the vote in a 10-man race last year so a better, well-funded candidate could defeat Wargotz in the primary. (In that primary Jim Rutledge, who had a much smaller campaign war chest but considerable TEA Party backing, finished second with just over 30 percent of the vote.) In theory, the blessing from Murphy, also a TEA Party favorite, could allow Bongino a 25-point base in the primary based on Brian’s support.
If events run true to form, the Republican primary for U.S. Senate next year will attract between seven and ten candidates for the nomination. Some of these will be on the ballot for the umpteenth time and others won’t even file with the FEC because they don’t (or won’t) raise enough money to wage a serious campaign. Given that background and the high-profile support of Murphy, a candidate like Daniel Bongino – even as a first-time officeseeker in a statewide race – will be one to contend with as next April draws closer.
Will Larry Hogan be a Maryland hero?
Now you know I couldn’t resist some reference to that. But seriously, this group may have some merit as perhaps being attractive to the TEA Party element yet acceptable to the conservative Republican establishment. I’ll let him take it from here:
We need YOU to Change Maryland.
Join the grassroots movement that’s fighting to bring fiscal responsibility and common sense to Annapolis. Change Maryland was born out of the frustrations of average Marylanders who are fed up with politics as usual in our state, want to stand together, and fight back for a change.
Our elected leaders are not solving the problems – they are causing them and making them worse. We’re concerned that Maryland is way off track, headed in the wrong direction and that our very economic future is at stake. It’s time to send a message to Annapolis.
We can’t sit back, accept the status quo, and allow the out of touch monopoly in Annapolis to continue to run our state into the ground with no opposition, no debate, and no checks and balances. It’s time we said enough is enough.
All Marylanders –Republicans, Democrats, and Independents – suffer when the professional politicians and the special interest groups go unchecked and continue to push the same failed ‘tax and spend’ policies. This cycle must stop. We can stop it together.
Together, we can Change Maryland. Real competition, honest debate of the issues, and the competition of a healthy and strong two party system are needed to turn Maryland around. Say no to more spending, more debt and higher taxes.
This isn’t just a fight between the right and the left. It’s a fight between right and wrong. We don’t need partisanship; we need honest leaders in Maryland who will tackle the tough issues. This isn’t about Republicans versus Democrats. It’s more important than that. This is about Maryland’s future, and it’s a fight worth fighting.
The group referred to already has a website; naturally it’s ChangeMaryland.org. This is a pretty solid introduction:
You can’t help but notice the tagline “from Election Strategies.”
So why now? Well, I haven’t asked Larry (although I do believe he checks out this site from time to time) but if I were to hazard a guess it would come from two distinct pieces of information:
- Brian Murphy has been a frequent guest on radio programs around the state and contributes the occasional op-ed piece, too.
- Charles Lollar was selected to head up the Maryland chapter of Americans for Prosperity – a natural bully pulpit.
The reason these are important is quite simple, really – these two gentlemen either ran for or considered running for Governor in 2010, as did Hogan before he withdrew in favor of Bob Ehrlich. We know that Murphy followed through until losing in the primary (with a little help from the Republican establishment) but Lollar considered the race until he was tripped up by an arcane residency rule. That won’t apply in 2014.
So perhaps part of the reason behind Change Maryland is to keep Larry’s name in the spotlight, although in actuality his name is nowhere on the site. Yet, in looking at Larry’s Facebook page he’s been a one-man promoter for Change Maryland, and that’s how I became familiar with the CM page. I figure he had something to do with its creation, and certainly I don’t have an issue with the message. But you know me: always looking for that deeper meaning.
We’ll keep an eye on the page as it develops, but in the meantime this could be an indication that Larry Hogan’s not through with politics just yet.
The TEA Party is not a loser
Sorry about the time away, but now things are back to normal in my new locale.
I’m catching up on some things I meant to respond to, with one being a December 31 post by Richard Cross at Cross Purposes which picked Maryland political winners and losers. I’m not going to quibble with the other seven items, but I don’t think the TEA Party in Maryland was a loser in 2010. After all, Cross also picked “insurgent Republicans” as one of his four winners and the TEA Party was a big part of getting those insurgents elected.
“The makings of a political farm team consisting of young, energetic, upwardly-mobile candidates” has been a GOP goal for many years, but Cross chooses to focus on the electoral losses of TEA Party darlings Jim Rutledge and Brian Murphy. Certainly those two were my personal picks, but the TEA Party was victorious on the local level in getting that GOP bench in place.
It’s also worth mentioning that Rutledge and Murphy have placed themselves in a position to run for future office. I don’t see another Senate run for Jim, but many have postulated that he could run for another statewide office in 2014 – perhaps Attorney General, as he was rumored to do this year. Certainly the GOP could use a candidate there. And with Bob Ehrlich out of the picture, one could use the example of recycling 2008 Presidential hopefuls like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee on a national scale to presume Murphy as a gubernatorial player in 2014 (along with the possibilities of those who dropped out earlier like Pat McDonough, Larry Hogan, and Charles Lollar.)
Yet it’s Richard’s contention that ”(the TEA Party) never approached the level of relevance and organization evident in other states, and its influence will only wane over time” which I object most to. Perhaps he wasn’t in Annapolis over the weekend to see over 200 conservative activists get together to plan for the next electoral cycles. (If it weren’t for having already picked the day to move, it may have been over 201.)
So you have 200 activists all ready to continue fighting and teaching, as they’ll influence their circle and those influenced will spread the word even farther. I’ll grant the political landscape of Maryland makes the fight an uphill battle, but I don’t believe the TEA Party has breathed their last in the Free State. Cross is wrong in picking this movement as a loser.
Conservatives in Maryland CAN
In three weeks, we may be seeing the beginnings of the TEA Party moving into its rightful place at the head of the Maryland political table. Yes, we have to wait until 2014 for the next statewide election but the process is moving in the right direction with a meeting of the minds coming up on Saturday, January 8th. Instead of being outside looking in (as they were at the recent GOP convention, where the picture is from) they are the organizers of the event – ironically set in the same locale of the Doubletree Hotel in Annapolis.
Organizers believe it will be the catalyst for future gains.
“To our knowledge, nothing like this has been done before in Maryland,” said Ann Corcoran, Washington County blogger and one of the organizers. ”We expect like-minded activists to share ideas and talents, forge alliances, sound the call for action, and give rise to conservative voices so that political competition can thrive in Maryland.”
Added Howard County activist Tonya Tiffany, ”We’ll be talking about 2010 campaign lessons, precinct organization, voter fraud, media outreach, running for office as a citizen legislator, and federal pressures bearing down on the state of Maryland. We’re not forming another political ‘group’ (but) trying to network people.”
With a roster of speakers well-known to conservative activists statewide, this daylong event was set up to give TEA Party faithful and their allies around the state the opportunity to converse and plan a strategy for future political gains. The speakers include:
- Marta Mossburg, Maryland Public Policy Institute
- Claver Kamau-Imani, Raging Elephants
- Anita MonCrief, ACORN whistleblower and creator, Emerging Corruption.com
- Delegate Ron George
- Congressman Andy Harris
- Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins
- Delegate-elect Kathy Afzali
- Charles Lollar (2010 Congressional candidate)
- Robert Broadus (2010 Congressional candidate)
- Brian Murphy (2010 gubernatorial candidate)
All this (and more) packed into eight hours for a cost of $40, which includes a box lunch. A registration form can be found here, or by contacting Tonya Tiffany at marylandcan@yahoo.com.
Is Murphy the man?
Update 2, 8 p.m.: There is a draft movement to get writer and former State Senate candidate Ron Miller to run. I also have it on good authority that another former Delegate and candidate is considering the race as well.
Update: Eric Wargotz is on record in the Washington Post as considering a bid, too.
“We need to change the mindset — the idea that Republicans can’t win here. I’m a physician. I believe there’s a cure and a diagnosis for everything.”
A published report is now saying that Brian Murphy is “hinting” that he wants to be Maryland GOP Chair. Obviously the angle presented by Sun writer Anne Linskey is one of a near-rematch between Brian Murphy and Mary Kane – technically this rematch would be true if Mike Ryman jumped into the race (and for all I know right now observing this race he just might.)
Certainly Murphy would bring a more conservative element to the chairmanship, and those of us who supported him in the gubernatorial election were reminded on November 2nd that those naysayers who said only Bob Ehrlich had a chance against Martin O’Malley were, oh, only about 14 1/2 points shy of being right. Shoot, Brian could have gotten 40 percent of the vote just by being a underfunded placeholder.
The rub for any of these “insurgent” candidates, though, is whether they can keep some of the large donors and rainmakers on board. Of course, business sense does help when it comes to running a party, but there’s no denying that a number of people and entities decided to step up and open their checkbooks the moment Audrey Scott was elected. As I reported at the time:
In the spirit of cooperation, Mike Collins of Anne Arundel County began a parade of people willing to donate to the party. All told, the impromptu effort raised $4,000 for the party coffers, which included donations from two county committees.
In thinking back, though, one could construe that effort as a little bit insulting. The party’s needs didn’t change and hopefully its principles didn’t change either, but suddenly they were worth donating to again. Will Mike Collins and his ilk again snap their wallets shut in a snit if Murphy or another non-establishment candidate (read: anyone besides Mary Kane) wins? That seems like a poor reaction to losing control of a party that, quite frankly, badly underperformed on a state level.
One who will not be running is Jim Rutledge, who announced on his Facebook page he wouldn’t be a candidate. But he had some strong words for those who were:
This is the time for bold leadership, not the time to succumb to the siren’s song of moderation, liberalization, and the club mentality of the Rockefeller republicans who have held sway over too many elements of the party in MD for too long. We in MD are being ruled not represented. Money is king and those that have it threaten to walk if they do not get their way. I say, let them walk, no let them run to their democrat friends. It is time for the ruling class to be deposed. Just look at the MD GOP website today promoting a celebration of Audrey Scott who presided over one of the worst GOP performances in the nation. After losing 2 MD Senate seats, she should have taken the honorable path and resigned immediately.
Time is short, and under pressure, taking the familiar “safe” way will be a great temptation. Take the opportunity now to buck the trends and strike for a new face on the MD GOP. The phone calls and emails having been flying and clamoring for new leadership and a new direction. The enemies of liberty abound, and we are counting on you to strike the ground for freedom now.
I write as a citizen. I am no longer a candidate, and I am not running for the Chair. I have obligations to fulfill that will not permit me to give the job the time it will require.
The “familiar ‘safe’ way” got us drubbed by 14 1/2 points and only netted us 4 seats in the General Assembly. But in areas the state party didn’t touch nearly as much we were much more successful – look at our success here in Wicomico County where we picked up at least one (and possibly two) County Council seats and the State’s Attorney office. (Too bad we couldn’t fill the whole ballot or we may have done even better!) And I’d be willing to wager that those who run as the most conservative alternatives win easily in Salisbury’s upcoming election (which is nonpartisan.)
Maybe it’s time to listen to those who have success?
Blog note: I think I’m going to create a widget for my sidebar on the ins, outs, and maybes. Look for it later today or tomorrow.
Murphy speaks out
It’s about four minutes of commentary, but former gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy had the chance to discuss the recent election with Shari Elliker on WBAL Radio Friday.
There’s no doubt that Murphy paid as much attention to the election results as the rest of us did, and it’s not clear from the conversation that his campaign rhetoric about Bob Ehrlich being beatable wasn’t quite the “I told you so” in retrospect. Critics noted that Bob Ehrlich’s message was a little muddy in their postmortems.
But now is the time to look forward to what is and will be. Martin O’Malley has one more term to serve as governor, and it’s conceivable a number of state Democrats are playing the game of being coy about their 2014 plans while laying the groundwork for a run of their own for Government House. Anthony Brown, Peter Franchot, and Doug Gansler are naturally front and center in that conversation since they have ran and won statewide.
Meanwhile, the GOP side has its own contenders with Brian Murphy probably among them. (He was coy about this in his conversation with Elliker, but one has to believe he’s considering the prospect of seeking an open seat. We’ll see based on how much interaction he has with Republican and TEA Party groups in the coming months.)
But we can’t forget a couple other names.
The old guard establishment may well be represented by Larry Hogan, who began something of a placeholder run for Governor this year until Bob Ehrlich got in.
We also need to consider Charles Lollar, who was the beneficiary of a draft movement last year but was tripped up by residency requirements this time around based on when he first registered to vote in Maryland he was just a few months short of the five years required. Undaunted, he ran for Congress. Unless Democrats decide to push through a ten-year requirement to foil him again, he may well decide to run again IF he doesn’t win a Congressional seat first.
It’s going to be about message, though. With the strong probability of another set of tax increases or expansions for Maryland one has to wonder just how long it will be before the unaffiliated voters and thoughtful suburban Democrats realize that continually funneling more money to the state for fewer and poorer core services needs to come to a screeching halt and eventually be turned around. Given the slow pace of economic recovery, the prospect of a strong economy come 2014 can only be described as a crapshoot at best – people my age may recall that the Reagan recovery didn’t begin until his third year in office and if a Republican takes the White House in 2012 it may take that long to undo the Obama damage (even with a GOP House over his last two years.)
But I’m glad to see Brian Murphy hasn’t gone away. Maybe we should be hanging onto those yard signs.
Comment on another’s post
Subtitled, why bury good writing and research in a comment?
First, let me set this up: Julie Brewington pondered on her site, Right Coast, why Martin O’Malley was leading Bob Ehrlich so widely (11 points) in a recent Washington Post poll. I weighed in with some statistics found on the Maryland Board of Elections website which may point out the poll was an outlier. This is my comment.
A couple points not necessarily considered:
In 2006 the primary voter split between Republicans and Democrats was 29-71 – over 70 percent of voters were Democrats.
In 2010 it was 37-63 R to D, in a state where the actual voter proportion as of the last report was 32-68. Bear in mind that in August 2006 the split was 35-65. (We’ve lost ground over the last four years for a variety of reasons.)
So in 2006 (a year that was terrible for Republicans) they underperformed at the primary ballot by 6 points, leading one to believe that R’s were less than enthused and D’s were excited.
This time we outperformed by 5 points, suggesting the tide has turned. The fact Garrett County, which is the most solidly Republican in the state, led the pack in turnout speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap.
I think you’re citing a poll that will turn out to be an outlier because there’s not a good geographic breakdown and it depends a lot on people who may not show up at the polls anyway.
However, having said that, there was a trend (shown by Rasmussen) of Ehrlich pulling even to barely ahead all spring and into the summer, but the last two polls have placed MOM back in the lead.
**********
Julie does bring up a valid point regarding the Brian Murphy campaign. I have a number of thoughts on that 25% of the GOP vote and what will happen to it.
First of all, I sincerely doubt that many of those voters will vote for Martin O’Malley out of spite. While many were dismayed by the actions of the Maryland GOP in that race, I think that most realize the stakes are great in this election. The fraction of Republicans who vote for O’Malley out of spite probably will be fewer that the votes the Democrats found in Baltimore back in 1994 to push Parris Glendening over Ellen Sauerbrey.
A larger number will choose to leave the Governor’s race blank or vote for either Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian in the race, or Eric Knowles, who represents the Constitution Party. Ironically, this could help one or both secure ballot status for the next four years since they need 1 percent of the vote to qualify as a minor party. But in all likelihood those numbers will subtract out from the Ehrlich column.
Having said that, though, Murphy’s campaign may have served to expand the Republican universe enough that, even if a decent number of Murphy supporters go third party or skip, it will end up being a wash as compared to a scenario where Murphy withdrew and left the field to Ehrlich. Some proof of this lies in how the GOP did 11 points better compared to the expected average because we had a contested primary for Governor – in 2006 we did not.
Yet the vast majority of Murphy supporters accepted the primary results, and will move into the Ehrlich column next month. The $64,000 question is whether they’ll be advocates for Bob or just show up on Election Day, hold their noses, and touch the screen next to the Ehrlich name.
But that difference could also affect races down the ticket, particularly in areas (like the Shore) where the GOP has a shot of picking off some Democratic General Assembly seats. While they can’t expect the same sort of rout we may see on a national scale, there is a threshold of 10 House seats and five Senate seats that could turn the GOP from a cipher to a truly functioning minority party in the Maryland General Assembly.
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