Maryland GOP: home for interesting electoral action?
At the risk of playing a little too much inside baseball again, it’s interesting to note that the Republican primaries for various Maryland Congressional seats (all but the First District) and U.S. Senate post aren’t the only games in town this April, at least not for those who serve on the various county Central Committees.
The race for the Republican National Committeewoman seat which opened up when Joyce Terhes opted not to seek another term has already made news around these parts, but there was no counterpart on the National Committeeman side, where Louis Pope is presumably seeking another term. Until today.
Scott reveals support group
For most, the contest to represent the Maryland Republican Party nationally as National Committeewoman has no meaning and is just another example of the “inside baseball” of party politics. But those who are astute should see the parallels between this race and the power struggle within the Republican Party on a national level.
To review, last month current state National Committeewoman (and onetime MDGOP Chair) Joyce Lyons Terhes announced she would not seek another four-year term in the post. To date two contenders have announced their intention to seek election – former YRNF Chairwoman Nicolee Ambrose and former state party Chair Audrey Scott. Anyone who’s paid attention to this space has seen me rake Audrey Scott over the coals for her participation in a rally supporting an increase in the state’s gasoline tax and, secondarily, for locking up the Transportation Trust Fund to prevent it from being raided every time Martin O’Malley needs to balance his budget. (The latter I’m fine with, but not the gas tax increase. Correctly prioritize what we have first.)
Audrey Scott, though, has a lot of backers who don’t mind that misstep with six members of the MDGOP’s executive board, six of the 24 local county Chairs, 24 of 43 Delegates, and 5 of 12 Senators on a list of endorsers Audrey has on her Facebook site devoted to the race. On the other hand, Ambrose has fewer elected officials supporting her (only Delegates Donna Stifler and LeRoy Myers, Senator J.B. Jennings, and U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino have expressed their support for Ambrose) but far more “likes” on her campaign’s Facebook page (143 vs. 17 for Scott.) Perhaps that’s a generational thing, but in any case the votes which will count are coming at the party’s Spring Convention April 27-28 – over three months from now.
(This upcoming state convention will also feature the election of ten Delegates and ten Alternate Delegates to the Republican National Convention. I unsuccessfully ran for this in 2008 but will take a pass in 2012 since I have something far more important to attend to that month and money enough for just one trip. We also elect a National Committeeman but thus far I’m unaware of anyone who will challenge current officeholder Louis Pope.)
Movin’ on out
As I’ve said from time to time on this forum and others, Maryland is the first place (besides, to a limited extent, my college alma mater) where I lived by choice. And the main reasons I moved here, as opposed to other prospective places where I could have worked like Jacksonville, Las Vegas, or Phoenix, were the somewhat rural setting and the idea that this area had plenty of room for growth. Needless to say, when compared to those urban areas, Salisbury was by far the smallest location I considered.
There are serious economic handicaps about living here which have always existed more or less, but at the time of my arrival they were held somewhat in check by the state government in place in the fall of 2004. Sure, Bob Ehrlich was no doctrinaire conservative but most of his ideas for revenue enhancement were limited to increasing user fees, and Maryland participated fully in the national economic boom which was taking place during the Ehrlich era here. Unemployment for the state was just 4.4% when Ehrlich took office and 3.6% when he left – the rate never exceeded 4.6% during his tenure. Obviously things are different now, and Maryland reflects the national situation in that respect. Oddly enough, though, the other three places I was considering were among the hardest hit by the recession, so while Salisbury never quite reached that exhilarating height this fact made the low point easier to handle.
Endorsements and other fun stuff in the Maryland U.S. Senate race
It seems to me that, much as I could probably like the other eight gentlemen seeking the Republican nod to charge up the hill that is Senator Ben Cardin, I only get to hear a lot from two of the ten contenders. And the dynamic between their campaigns is generally interesting, although I have to concede the advantage in communication goes to Dan Bongino over fellow candidate Rich Douglas. This list is culled just from items this week, which are coming at me in rapid-fire fashion.
An update on the Audrey Scott flap
Obviously this story from yesterday has gotten a little bit of play around the state because former MDGOP Chair (now National Committeewoman candidate) Audrey Scott claimed we bloggers got it wrong.
(Insofar as I know, those “bloggers” would be me. Richard Cross of Cross Purposes made the statement as part of linking to the Washington Post story on Facebook, and I just pointed to his site as a professional courtesy. To date he hasn’t weighed in on the subject on his site.)
Regardless, Scott’s contention is that she was only at the rally to support protecting the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF), a position she staked out at Kevin Waterman’s Questing for Atlantis website. Apparently she also defended herself at the Montgomery County Republican Central Committee meeting, according to county Chair Mark Uncapher.
But Mark also sent along a link to the press release the Greater Baltimore Committee did regarding the rally, noting that their Chairman also served on the Blue Ribbon Commission which recommended the gas tax – along with a slew of other fee and toll increases and enactments, including “development of revenue mechanisms that are directly tied to the use of the transportation system…commonly referred to as mileage-based or vehicle miles traveled (VMT) charges” – in the first place. (Not only that, those who are up in arms about PlanMaryland should also pay attention to Issue Area III in the 32-page report.) The rally’s basic purpose was to show support to the General Assembly for raising $800 million annually in revenues for the TTF, according to the GBC release. A tax increase is also part of the GBC legislative agenda.
To be fair to Audrey, neither she nor Doug Duncan, who was also quoted in the Post article (which was a reprint of an AP story), was a featured speaker at the event. Apparently she was a face in the crowd who wanted to lend her support for the protection of the Transportation Trust Fund. Certainly I would like to see the TTF protected as well – if we have to have any gas tax, it should go to keep up roads and bridges. Mass transit should pay its own way, although the Blue Ribbon Commission believes farebox collection should only make up 35% of operating revenues. So much for building bridges and highways.
But as I said yesterday the perception of Audrey Scott, who is a symbol of the Maryland Republican Party, being at a pro-tax increase rally was something the Post would seize on to undermine the principled position Republicans in the General Assembly would stand upon that we are taxed enough already. It doesn’t necessarily matter what she actually said, for perception is often reality.
On the other hand, if we eliminate the items which aren’t germane to transportation infrastructure, like mass transit, and pass the legislation already introduced by a bipartisan coalition that would protect the TTF, we can see what can be done under the existing tax structure first.
Let me state for the record that I haven’t made up my mind in the National Committeewoman race yet. But when Audrey Scott is already infamous in some quarters for her “party over everything” statement, she’s already behind the 8-ball with a lot of Republican regulars and supporters. And I come from a muckraking county Central Committee which definitely goes against the flow the establishment attempts to create because we have a heavy TEA Party influence on our body, so Audrey already has a tough sell locally.
Now if you want to know what was said at this rally, the Greater Baltimore Committee has a YouTube channel with four videos of the January 19 event. None of them feature Audrey, so presumably the AP stringer covering the rally recognized her as someone important and got her take. But what I did hear being said was speakers who were only too happy to raise our taxes, with the TTF protection being secondary at best.
Judge for yourself whether you agree with me that her attendance wasn’t a politically wise choice.
Update: Scott has garnered a key local endorsement. District 38B Delegate Mike McDermott wrote in a note to local Central Committee members:
I ask you to give strong consideration to (Audrey Scott’s) candidacy as I know that she has everything it takes to represent the interests of Maryland and our party to the uttermost.
He also pointed out Scott’s involvement in the Ehrlich administration as Secretary of Planning. One thing in Scott’s favor: no move toward a PlanMaryland was made during her tenure there.
Maryland’s role
I was doing a quick bit of research just to see something I was interested in.
Most of you know that Maryland’s presidential primary is April 3rd. It’s key because we are among the states participating in the first set of “winner-take-all” contests – the other primaries before us are supposed to allocate delegates proportionately.
I like the system because it doesn’t automatically mean the winner of the first two or three primaries will be the nominee, since that person can’t get a large lead on the field. But after March that all changes.
Presumably Mitt Romney would be the winner here in Maryland, but that’s not set in stone. It’s also important to note that we share our date with two other states and the District of Columbia – one of them being Texas, where it would be a shock to see anyone but Rick Perry win. The other state in the mix is Wisconsin, and at the moment they’re not really focused on presidential politics because there’s a nasty recall campaign ongoing.
Also worthy of note is the fact that in the previous two weeks there are only two primary elections, one in Illinois and one in Louisiana – and neither occur the Tuesday before ours. The upshot is that we may actually have some campaigning about these parts, and that could in turn help the Republican Party here in the state.
A little food for thought.
A second look before he leaps?
Well, we can’t count Eric Wargotz out can we?
In a move which both piques interest and certainly cheers a certain segment of the Maryland Republican Party, the aforenentioned 2010 GOP Senate candidate is reportedly taking a “second look” at the race, according to the Baltimore Sun and other blog reports. As examples, David Moon at Maryland Juice has the port side view on this while Richard Cross, who briefly worked with the 2010 Wargotz effort, also weighs in at Cross Purposes.
Obviously, this could be much ado about nothing. For one thing, there are only four days before the filing deadline, and while Eric likely has a portion of his team in place and certainly hasn’t closed out his campaign accounts from 2010 he’s already facing a field with some established frontrunners and an uphill battle to secure the same proportion of the primary vote he received two years ago.
But it appears Eric’s logic regarding a primary battle is sound to a certain extent – obviously Ben Cardin has a serious opponent. Yet on the other hand, it appears the Maryland Democratic Party is going all in for Cardin despite their own bylaws prohibiting the practice. While our state is perceived as a safely Democratic state, anything is possible and Democrats have to protect the seats they have in the Senate, bylaws be damned.
And there’s always the “testing the waters” theory: perhaps this trial balloon has been launched to see what sort of buzz is generated by the possibility of a late Wargotz entry. Obviously it’s enough to make me write something during an NFL playoff game, and perhaps there is a chance that disillusioned minority Democrats here in Maryland – who will surely turn out to vote for Barack Obama – make that vote and then cast a ballot for the Republican to punish Ben Cardin for running against one of their own. But I only see that as adding 2 to 5 percent to the total of the eventual GOP nominee, and whoever runs needs to make up the 10-point deficit Michael Steele had in the 2006 race.
Certainly Eric is free to toss his hat into the ring, as I always think the more primary choices I have the better. But no one is going to hand him the GOP nomination and many of the factors which led him to initially skip the 2012 contest will remain in place regardless of how the Democratic race goes. My thinking at the moment is that C. Anthony Muse has a steep climb in order to beat Ben Cardin, even without the state and national Democrats putting their thumbs on the scale. Sometimes the first gut instinct is the best one.
The Maryland Model (part two)
In part one I related the Maryland Model in its current state to the 2012 campaign, particularly when considering the battle to repeal the in-state tuition for illegal aliens passed last year by the General Assembly. The bill was petitioned to referendum as opponents turned the trick for the first time in over twenty years in Maryland.
As you should recall, I distilled the idea behind the Colorado Model liberal Democrats used to take over that state into four simpler M words: money, message, media, and mobilization. In this part I assess the overall shape conservatives here in Maryland exist in regarding these four issues – and we definitely need to do some work!
A Senate endorsement closer to home
I think it’s her position as the second-ranking Republican in the Maryland House of Delegates that explains this big deal.
“Dan Bongino is an excellent example of the next generation of leaders who understand that the ways of the past will not lead us to a better future,” said Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio. “Electing Dan Bongino to the U.S. Senate is paramount to changing the mindset and culture in Washington.”
In kind, Bongino responded:
“I am honored by the Minority Whip’s endorsement. Delegate Haddaway-Riccio represents a new generation of leaders in our state who refuse to allow Maryland to fall to the wayside, while the powerful establishment serves the needs of special interests over the needs of the people,” said Bongino. “Jeannie and I firmly believe that the future for Maryland lies in the hands of those willing to change the way the federal and state governments operate and respond to the very people it serves.”
And in case you forgot:
Serving since 2003, Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio began her career as one of the youngest members of the Maryland House of Delegates and now serves as its Minority Whip. As a small business owner and Eastern Shore native, Jeannie works hard for her constituents, focusing on the economy, education, and the environment. Her and her husband, Joseph, reside in Talbot County with their dog Max.
I remember when it was just Jeannie Haddaway…
Setting aside the endorsement for the moment, does anyone else sense that bigger things are awaiting Jeannie in 2014? I found it interesting that she gave the GOP response to Governor O’Malley’s State of the State address last year as opposed to many other longtime party leaders. Perhaps she’s being portrayed as the softer side of the Maryland Republican Party since her voting record is pretty much middle-of-the-pack between conservative and moderate.
It’s also worthy of noting that Bongino and Haddaway-Riccio are fairly contemporary in terms of age – Bongino is 37 and Jeannie will turn 35 later this year. But eight years into a career in the House of Delegates, Haddaway-Riccio definitely has the experience required to make a change if she desires to.
As is usually the case with endorsements, they’re sort of like trophies on the wall – nice to look at but not much in the way of usefulness. However, if Bongino picks up a percent or two in the 37th District that could be helpful in both April and November. If I were to make a prediction right now, I would expect the Senate primary to be a repeat of the 2010 version, which saw the winner come in with less than 40 percent of the vote – only the names have been changed for some of the participants.
A parting on the left
It looks like the rumors may be true, the exploring is over, and Republicans can rejoice in the fact there will be a potentially divisive primary fight for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Ben Cardin. (h/t: Maryland Juice.)
State Senator C. Anthony Muse of Prince George’s County will emerge as the first serious challenger to Cardin from the left. While there are several others who also share the Democratic line, the reality is that most are perennial fringe candidates (take Lih Young as a nearly incomprehensible great example) who would be fortunate to pick up 10 percent between the lot of them. As proof of their perennial nature, four of the other Democrats vying for Senate were on the ballot just two years ago: J.P. Cusick and Ralph Jaffe picked up the 13% of the vote Martin O’Malley didn’t get in the Democratic primary for governor while between them Chris Garner and Lih Young bagged just under 9% in the 2010 Senatorial race. (Garner did finish second, a respectable 75 points behind incumbent Barbara Mikulski.)
But Muse presents a different sort of challenge, making the race perhaps a little more reminiscent of the 2006 primary where Cardin emerged victorious from a crowded 18-candidate scrum with only 44% of the vote, beating Kweisi Mfume by just three points. While Cardin has the obvious advantage of incumbency, he may have the same difficulty in Prince George’s County – where Mfume trounced Cardin by 55,000 votes – but fewer names to split the other 12,000 votes from there which went to the sixteen others in the 2006 race. Moreover, the disadvantage to Muse in not being as well known in the Baltimore area as Mfume was would likely be negated in the rapidly growing counties of southern Maryland, where Muse is more recognized. So there is a definite path to victory in Muse’s case.
However, one handicap for Muse which will help Cardin immensely is that the primary campaign will overlap with the General Assembly session. Unless Muse is willing to give up his State Senate seat, he’ll have one hand tied behind his back insofar as fundraising and campaigning goes.
So what does this mean to the Republican who emerges from the GOP primary? For one thing, a strong primary challenge to Cardin will help negate the monetary advantage he’s certain to have – as of the September 30 filing Cardin had a war chest of $2.3 million he was sitting on, with no Republican even into six digits with their total. It goes without saying that a Democrat in Maryland is going to have a financial advantage over a Republican, but it would be more advantageous to see some of that used up well before November.
But there are two other possible effects. Muse was the lone Senate Democrat to vote against the Congressional redistricting plan Martin O’Malley and his cronies foisted upon the state because it was felt that minorities got the shaft. Add the bruised feelings sure to occur when minority voters feel put upon by the Democratic establishment once again because they’re expected to unquestioningly back a white candidate who defeated one of their own in the primary and, though they’ll turn out in droves to support the top of the ticket, the remaining races may see serious undervoting. The trick will be getting Republicans who know the state is likely written off by the national GOP to turn out and vote for the whole ballot. Most Marylanders will only see three races: President, Senator, and their local Congressman. (A smattering will get other local races and ballot issues to vote on as well.) While turnout is usually best for a Presidential election, it’s still nowhere near 100 percent.
It’s nice to see a little bit of drama on the other side for a change, and it could serve as a warmup for the real battle royale sure to come once 2014 rolls around and offices aplenty open up across the state.
The spirit of giving…3,200 signatures
Now I think I’ve received everything – but then again I haven’t.
I’ve never been asked to sign a nominating petition for a Presidential candidate to get on the Maryland ballot, until yesterday – but it wasn’t for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, or Michele Bachmann. Strange thing was that the person in question is someone I’ve never heard of, but he’s attempting to start at the top.
Oregon resident Mark Callahan is one of the dozens and dozens who have filed with the Federal Elections Commission to run for President, and in order to get on the Maryland ballot he needs to have at least 3,200 valid signatures (with at least 400 from each Congressional district.) I checked out his website, and while he might not get my vote I’m certainly willing to help him out. His platform is conservative with some libertarian touches, in my rough estimation. I think he’d be better served running for Congress or perhaps a local state of Oregon office first, but I suppose some people just like to start at the top.
So how was I selected for this task? I suspect that Callahan made a pretty logical decision of contacting the over 250 Central Committee members in Maryland, of which I am one. Little did he know he would get some free press out of the deal, although I’ve noticed he has visited Iowa and New Hampshire like the more well-known candidates have. No campaign swing through Maryland yet.
But perhaps the largest stumbling block Callahan may have is his age; if elected this year he would be by far the youngest President because he doesn’t reach the Constitutionally mandated age of 35 until next May. Still, if you want to get him on the Maryland ballot his petition form is here. Heck, I’ll sign my name for him just as I would for any serious GOP candidate.
Who knows? Maybe this little taste of the national political world will stand him in good stead later in life; after all, Herman Cain was a little-known Presidential candidate for the 2000 election and turned the world upside down a dozen years later. And considering the fact Mark’s taken the time to do a little campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire it certainly makes the case he’s not just in it to see his name on the ballot line. Maybe – just maybe – we may see the same resurgence Cain had from Callahan around 2024.
Just make sure to stay faithful to your spouse and don’t give money to strange women.
Endorsement tit for tat, part two
Staking out a position as a foreign policy maven, U.S. Senate candidate Rich Douglas announced another endorsement this morning:
Richard Douglas, an Iraq veteran, former American diplomat, and small business owner, is pleased to announce that U.S. Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) has strongly endorsed his accelerating campaign to unseat incumbent Democrat Ben Cardin in the U.S. Senate.
Senator Kirk said, “Douglas is one of the most qualified U.S. Senate candidates in the nation. His comprehensive experience in the Middle East exhibits a deep understanding of the complex issues our Country and our allies face. I know that Douglas will be a strong Senate partner with me, from day one, in facing down Iran and supporting our ally Israel.”
Senator Mark Kirk went to the United States Senate in November 2010, after winning a special election to serve the final weeks of Barack Obama’s Senate term. Kirk also won a regular six-year term which began January 3, 2011. Senator Kirk is a leading national proponent of a nuclear-free Iran, and a leader in
serious efforts to reduce the federal budget deficit.Douglas welcomed Senator Kirk’s endorsement and looks forward to working with other like-minded Senators to “create jobs, put an end to America’s 40-year nightmare of fiscal irresponsibility, and restore foreign policies which put America’s national interests first.”
Let me say this right up front: if you believe this is an endorsement to burnish Rich’s conservative credentials (as in the case of Kirk’s fellow Senator Mike Lee endorsing opponent Dan Bongino) you’d be wrong: Senator Kirk has a lifetime American Conservative Union rating in the 50′s. (Kirk served five terms in the House before winning that Senate seat in 2010.) But Kirk is solid on foreign affairs, and that seems to be the main plank in the Douglas platform.
On the other hand, Dan Bongino received a more local endorsement from Frederick County:
Blaine Young, President of the Frederick County Commissioners, officially endorses Dan Bongino, candidate for US Senate in Maryland.
“Dan is the kind of candidate I can get behind. He is running for the right reasons,” said Blaine Young. “His solid background in economics and dedicated service to our country prove to me that he not only has the character to defeat Senator Cardin, but also has a clear plan for getting our country back on track.”
(snip)
“I am both grateful and humbled by Commissioner Young’s endorsement. He has served the people of Frederick County well by being a true representative of the people,” said Bongino. “Blaine and I believe that the way to economic growth is by lowering the tax burden and government regulation both on small businesses and the people they employ.”
Perhaps this is an unfair assessment of the race at this point, but judging from the backers on each side this is beginning to look like a contest between the rural, more conservative Republicans who would likely back Dan Bongino against the suburbanites who might feel more comfortable backing a more establishment candidate in Rich Douglas. Another set of differences will come from ground game, turnout, and the effect the other several candidates have on taking votes from the front-runners.
But the positions seem to be more and more staked out: foreign policy expertise in a threatening world against ideas to combat a threatening economy. However, the reaction I’d love to get from the candidates on is how they would address the other’s strengths (i.e. Bongino on foreign policy and Douglas on conservative, TEA Party values.)
That should make for a very interesting conversation, and it may be one which wins or loses the election for them.
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