Wargotz wins beauty contest
Much as a straw poll is somewhat helpful in determining grassroots support – but isn’t necessarily an indication of how an election will turn out – U.S. Senate Dr. Eric Wargotz may have proven he has the best supporters for stacking a straw poll.
My U.S. Senate poll came to a close early this morning (by prearrangement) and the final results out of over 5,000 votes are as follows:
- Eric Wargotz 2,864 (56%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 1,436 (28%)
- Jim Rutledge 519 (10%)
- John Kimble 144 (3%)
- Carmen Amedori 138 (3%)
- John Curran 5 (<1%)
- Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)
Conclusions:
- Eric’s campaign never stopped responding to the poll once it got underway. He led pretty much the entire way and kept increasing his percentage as other candidates and their supporters lost interest. The last time I did this (with just four candidates – Amedori hadn’t entered the race yet and I didn’t know Curran and Kimble had entered) Jim Rutledge picked up support toward the end but not this time.
- I think Corrogan Vaughn’s camp exhibited the same phenomenon, as he and his supporters were probably the best at plugging the poll. But I’m hesitant to consider him as a real force in the race yet based on prior results. Even if you forget that the 2006 campaign had an all-but-annointed candidate in Michael Steele, Vaughn only drew 3.7% of the vote in 2004. Why is the support coming out now when the message didn’t sell before? Something doesn’t add up here.
- Jim Rutledge has good supporters based on comments, but they didn’t stay for the whole poll. It makes me wonder if his backing is all that strong as I’ve found his campaign stays on message well but has spotty execution at times. Hopefully those videos are helping Jim with campaign financing too.
- As for John Kimble, see Corrogan Vaughn. Most of his support came in the last day or two because prior to that he was a cypher. So my guess is that he or one of his backers caught wind of the poll and tried to make it sound like he had a little bit of backing. On the bright side, he did beat Vaughn in 2006 with 2.9% of the vote, finishing a very distant second in the primary.
- I see Carmen Amedori as the “establishment” candidate based on her prior service in state government, and it sounds to me like she ignored the poll. I got a note from her that she was doing door-to-door instead, which makes sense. She’ll get far more than 3% in September, I’m certain of that.
- On the other hand, McAndrew and Curran performed as expected.
At some point I’m going to do this again, perhaps later on this spring. But the next time I’m going to shorten the poll’s duration and see if I can dampen the repeat voting aspect to some extent. I had it set to one hour on my site but then again I don’t know if Polldaddy works that restriction through its site-based voting. (Now I know why I had 5,111 votes but not 5,111 readers! But readership did have a nice increase, thank you!)
I promised to put up some of the best comments for each candidate. There is no doubt that this poll was by far my best as participation goes, and I think I finally harnessed the power I envisioned when I started doing polling a few months back. These will be in order of finish, but most of the comments spoke about my top finishers and were cleaned up as needed for spelling errors and such.
“Sam” said about Dr. Eric Wargotz:
I don’t know. All are good people but very few really qualified to take a 6 year legislative hitch IMHO. I was quite taken with Dr. Eric Wargotz at the debate. Warm, comfortable, approachable style. Not stuffy and boring. Seemed to be right on with his responses. Came across very sincere and caring along with very knowledgeable. I have trouble supporting candidates for a 6 year legislative hitch if they have no elected legislative or constituent experience. I am also not a fan of politicians who are elected and then quit to take an appointed position. I feel that is a derilection of duty to the constituents who elected them. Just my view.
Jim Duncan pointed out the Facebook aspect – analytical like me:
Before you go too far in questioning the fairness of this poll, as the creator (of the poll) points out, it does appear to be consistent with each candidate’s level of support. At least with respect to the current order of finish, when you look at each campaign’s number of fans/friends on Facebook, where the candidates have pushed this poll. As best as I could tell, Eric Wargotz has by far the most support on Facebook with exactly 5000 friends. He has additional sites ranging from 126 to 1853 friends, but I will assume that most are duplicates. A distant second appears to be Corrogan Vaughn with 562, Vaughn has two other sites with 197 and 373 friends, Jim Rutledge with 514 and Carmen Amedori with 292, neither appeared to have other sites. I’ll bet there are some cross overs here as well…
Corrogan Vaughn had a number of passionate defenders for his cause. “JPS” liked his stand on the issues:
I agree with some of the above posters that we need someone who can take Baltimore city, and to add to that Vaughn can not only win Baltimore city, but he can win on solid principles. He has called for (abolishing) the IRS in place of sensible fair and simple taxation, abolishing the Department of Education because the education of our children comes from the states, and he’s serious about reining in spending. I know many have called Corrogan Vaughn the most Conservative candidate because he is deeply committed first and foremost to fiscal responsibility while maintaining social conservative values that will win over black conservative Democrats, a large voting bloc in Maryland fyi.
“Maryland Patriot” also chimed in for Vaughn:
I have worked in Maryland politics for several years on both sides of the aisle and have yet to meet an individual more honest and sincere than Corrogan Vaughn. The others are nice people, but seem to share the same disregard for the needs of everyday Marylanders as our present senator. Mr. Vaughn offers genuine solutions and ideas to the problems faced by our state and nation. He seems to be in this race out of sincere concern for Marylanders and Americans. Go Vaughn!
“Jasmine” was quite succinct:
I’m not familiar with politics here in Maryland but I will say that as a lifelong Democrat I’m switching to Republican this election to vote for Vaughn!!! Go Corrogan!
As Rush Limbaugh would say, “welcome home.” Meanwhile, Jim Rutledge supporters were in force early on. Here’s some of what they had to say, beginning with “libertypatriot”:
If you want a conservative candidate then the best candidate is Jim Rutledge. The other candidates do not possess the Constitutional knowledge and understanding that Jim possesses. While I don’t have anything personal against anyone in the race, conservatives know that Ehrlich is considered a moderate and what I’m hearing from people is Carmen is a reflection of that. Again, not making any judgment, just passing that on. Lastly, Tea Party people are tired of people already in government. We want an outsider, not an insider.
I think we all agree though… whomever ends up winning the Republican primary… needs to take down Mikulski. That’s the real end game.
In looking at her record, Amedori isn’t particularly moderate compared to some of her peers, regardless Wayne Ehrensberger said:
I have talked with Jim Rutledge at length on a wide range of topics. I can assure everyone that he is a staunch constitutional conservative, of solid moral character, knows the issues and fully articulates well thought out responsive plans and ideas. These same traits cannot be applied to Dr. Wargotz. Jim is a successful, experienced businessman. He is well versed in the politics although admittedly not a “veteran” politician. And that is certainly a good thing. What we obviously don’t need are more long term politicians. We need to put in place those that are in tune with the private sector that most of us work in and who understand, appreciate and will honestly adhere to the Constitution.
I am closely associated with several of Jim’s support staff. We knew each other before any of us were even aware of Jim Rutledge. These individuals would never align themselves with someone who isn’t a pure Constitutionalist. That of course also goes for me. I don’t possess any great incite into the remaining candidates, but I don’t really need to. The simple fact is that they are not Jim Rutledge. He is the individual that must win the seat currently held by Mikulski. Then we will finally have someone that truly represents We the People.
If anyone is interested in learning more about the Constitutional Conservative/Tea Party movement, I offer you two “Groups” based here in Maryland that you should check out and consider joining – allianceofamericanpatriots.org and restoreamericasmission.org. You will find yourself in company with many Maryland Patriots as well as the same from across the Nation.
Even the few Amedori supporters got their points across, with the best being “NRAD”:
I was at the debate in MoCo and by no fault of the YR’s the venue was pretty lousy for all the candidates. There was no PA system and there were barriers in the middle of the room. So by all standards ALL the candidates did a pretty decent job considering they had to shout at the top of thier voices so the people in the back and behind the walls could hear. By no means, should that be a gauge of anything. I will note that in all my days in politics it is always the front runner who takes the worst beating. May I suggest, however, that we not beat up on the GOP candidates. I bet Ronald Reagan would be turning in his grave by such antics.
Now, my candidate is Amedori for many reasons. And her experience is in the private and public sector – such a fabric upon which sound and wise decisions can be made. It is going to take that fortitude to take on the corruption in D.C. She has never shied away from a good fight. I remember her when she confronted then Lt. Gov Townsend and the way she always took on Joe Curran in Judiciary Committee. This woman is relentless. And, in my opinion, it is going to take a strong woman to take the fight to Babs. Amedori will surely do that. She has a conservative voting record to reflect her positions. Seems to me that anyone can say what they will do but we really need to look at what has been done. She is 100% pro life, 100% small business having been a recipient of The Shaw Award with MD Business for Responsive Government. And she is a fiscal conservative. All of that is reflected in her voting record. That is why Amedori has my vote.
The poll and comments are available here. While I’m changing my poll today, I must say this version was a memorable one!
Obamacare reaches its climax
Well, it sounds like we’re at the tipping point for nationalizing one-sixth of our economy and the question is whether the House will pass the Senate bill or not. Forget reconciliation – there would be no need for it once the House swallows real hard and the dam is broken.
This is a sampling of some of the best action items I’ve seen in the grassroots effort to stop Obamacare. Amy Kremer, writing as part of the upcoming TEA Party Express version 3.0, had these suggestions as a daily schedule:
Wednesday, March 10th: Medical Professionals (you do not have to be a physician) visit local district offices. Be sure to wear your medical attire. Let these offices know that you are not going to sit back and let the government takeover our health care system!
Thursday, March 11th: Veterans go to local district offices. Our veterans are so special. They have a voice like no one else. Veterans, let these offices know that you fought for her once and you are fighting for her again!
Friday, March 12th: Nationwide rallies at local district offices for 1 hour at 12 noon local. Let’s make it a special point for all of us to go during our lunch hour if at all possible.
Monday, March 15th: Make calls. Send Faxes. Send Emails. You can do all of these things during the day and after business hours.
Tuesday, March 16th: Rally in DC and Nationwide at local district offices. Americans For Prosperity also has sent out an alert to honk at 12 noon that day while you are driving in your car.If you can’t go to DC on March 16th, please visit your local district offices to have your voices heard and show solidarity with those in DC. Our sources from the Hill tell us that the vote is likely to happen between March 16th and March 18th. If you are able to go to DC, please RSVP here.
If you are doing a rally at your local office please RSVP here, so we can let others know. This is a team effort, and we are part of your team. Whatever you need, please let us know!
Wednesday, March 17th – Friday, March 19th: If you are in D.C., please visit your Representatives and Senators. If you are not in D.C., please continue to visit local district offices! Make calls. Send Faxes. Send Emails. The calls, faxes, and emails can all be done during the day and after business hours.
Saturday & Sunday, March 20th & 21st: Town Halls for March Madness! In August we had some amazing town halls! They really made people and lawmakers stop and think about this health care legislation. Let’s do it again! Host a town hall in your community and invite your Senator and Congressman. More details on this next step will be available on American Grassroots Coalition within the next day or two. Thanks for your patience. (All emphasis in original.)
Sounds like a heckuva to-do list, particularly when we have a Congressman who’s on record for opposing Obamacare anyway. But it never hurts to remind him, does it?
More on that March 16th event comes from Tim Phillips of Americans for Prosperity:
On March 16, we’re holding the “Honk Against the Health Care Takeover” event. Here’s what we’re asking you to do. At 12 Noon your time on March 16, drive to your member of Congress’s district office and join a car caravan there, circling your representative’s office while honking against the health care takeover.
Just CLICK HERE for more information and to let us know you’re on board. You’ll be able to print off your very own “Honk Against the Health Care Takeover” sign for your car when you register. Sign up tomorrow, March 10, to receive a free bumper sticker in the mail before March 16.
In addition, you can sign up to be a car caravan leader. You can pick a parking lot near your Congressman’s office and let folks know you will be there to lead them over to the district office. It will be fun to meet fellow grassroots activists and to go over in a caravan to send your message.
Here’s the bottom line. The president is in the midst of his final all-out push for his health care takeover. Yes, his campaign is dishonest and over-the-top. But, to their credit they are refusing to quit this fight. So, we’ve got to beat them in these final days before the House vote.
They’ve put everything on the line for their ideology, as flawed as it is.
The question for us is: will we do the same for our values, our freedoms and our nation?
Knowing what I know about Americans like us, I believe the answer will be a resounding YES.
Again, given the fact we have Congressman on record as a likely “no” vote, I suspect our protest may be a little more subdued than others. But we’ll see.
Even Newt Gingrich chimed in, with this being the money passage from his post on Human Events:
I have even taken heat from fellow conservatives for cooperating with leading Democrats to achieve health reforms we agree on, like greater use of health information technology. In fact, there are even some specific elements of the bill — like payment reform to reward quality care — with which I agree.
However, as someone who has dedicated the last decade of his life to fixing what’s broken in America’s health care system, and has reached across party lines to do so, I regrettably have to say that this bill will do vastly more harm than good.
Here’s the rub, though. Why is it that conservatives and Republicans always have to reach across the aisle to Democrats?
You know, I’m damn tired of bipartisanship when it’s my side being sold down the river. I’ve watched this ship of state founder and draw dangerously close to the rocks ever since Ronald Reagan left office. While even Reagan couldn’t steer it in the proper direction, he at least held to the deepest part of the river and served as an anchor against the slow drift toward tyranny.
Not only is it time to kill this monstrosity of a bill, it’s long past time to reconsider why the government is in the health care market in the first place. One way or the other, entitlements left unchecked will destroy us – either we’ll drive the nation into default and bankruptcy or we’ll be dependent on government like New Orleans was as Katrina lashed the city.
We have a lot of hard decisions to make, but the first one is easy. Drive a wooden stake through the heart of Obamacare and be done with it.
Pollitt warms up the local campaign
You wouldn’t expect Wicomico County Executive Rick Pollitt to be a “one-and-done” termer if he could help it, so this news is not unexpected. From Progressive Delmarva:
Rick Pollitt will kick off his re-election effort to return as Wicomico County Executive with a fundraising dinner this Saturday.
The beef and dumplings dinner will cost $30 a ticket at the Pittsville Fire Hall from 5 p.m.- 8 p.m. Entertainment will be provided by Mat Creamer. Tickets are available at the door.
Rick has started a Facebook page, a Twitter profile, and a website with donations accepted by PayPal.
That scant description by “Duck Around” (who I presume is one of Pollitt’s 80 or so Facebook fans, since two have the surname “Duck”) is pretty much the whole post, and there’s little to Pollitt’s website yet either. It’s a shame, because I’d love to see what Rick thinks are the issues facing Wicomico County and what he’s done to recommend a second term.
However, if any Republicans are seeking the seat they are keeping their cards close to the vest. (Then again, Pollitt was first to file in 2006 and it was right about this time on the calendar.) Conventional wisdom holds that the leading contenders to make such an announcement would be County Councilmen John Cannon or Joe Holloway, but as I recall none of the three main GOP contenders last time came from an elected background (nor did Pollitt, as it turns out.) We could see a local business leader step into the ring once again, on either side.
Depending on your perspective, it’s either fortunate or unfortunate that I’ve been through this rodeo once before and my archives go back beyond the 2006 election. Here’s some golden oldies where Pollitt spoke during that campaign, like the NAACP forum, the Pittsville forum, and his response to my analysis. As an added bonus, I have an overview of the 2006 CE race and its key issues, and how he did his initial budget. Maybe if he’d said “no” a little more during the fat times the lean times would have been easier to deal with – in other words, a little “proven leadership” would have gone a long way.
But we can change the leader, and perhaps this November is a good time to do so. (Or even September - wonder if Tom Taylor will run again?)
Wicomico County can do better. Being first to hold the County Executive’s seat is certainly an honor but it’s not a license to remain there for life.
Thinking about tea
It’s a beautiful morning outside, and the snow pile that lay across the street from the driveway here has finally disappeared, so it must be spring! It’s not the type of morning which makes one think about doing taxes – as it happens, I haven’t done mine yet either – but it is the kind of morning which makes me think about the Tax Day TEA Party coming up in just over a month.
Certainly I hope the weather is more like what we’re enjoying today than the miserable damp and rainy day we endured last year, but the event promises to be bigger and better in many other ways. I know organizers are looking for musical entertainment to help fill a four-hour or so program, and that’s fine.
Yet I don’t necessarily want the event to lose its impact or its message by being bogged down in entertainment. It becomes less of a protest and more of an event like the annual picnic or fireman’s carnival if the pendulum swings too far in that direction.
The thing which appealed to me as I stood on the steps of the Government Office Building last year and said my brief piece was that the people I surveyed weren’t comprised of the same old political crowd I saw at any other party meeting or candidate forum. Instead, I was looking at a crowd of real-life Howard Beales – mad as hell, and they couldn’t take it anymore. Rather than stew about it or yell at the televison news, they came despite the weather to air their own grievances and make their voice heard.
No one knew if this would be a one-shot deal; after all, the naysayers always told us you can’t fight City Hall. But one protest sparked another and with several political battles being fought the anger and frustration were easily channeled into positive directions – in particular, the continuing fight against the takeover of one-sixth of our economy by the federal government. (If Medicare is broke, do we honestly believe putting more people on a similar program will enjoy success?)
So where do TEA Parties go from here? Well, they’ve spawned a copycat movement from their polar opposites, but the Astroturf known as the Coffee Party may not have the passion that it could have had it sprung up a year or two earlier. (Let me throw a question back at those guys – where were you when President Bush was enacting policies you didn’t like?)
But as the TEA Party movement matures there’s a risk that it ossifies into that which we protested against in the first place. While some say there’s room for a third political party, for years we’ve had a third, fourth, fifth, etc. and they’ve made little to no impact. The trick is figuring out how to infiltrate one (or, even better, both) of the major parties yet keep the movement fresh. After all, there’s always the possibility we get what we want, and like a team which wins the World Series after a long losing streak, we need to learn how to stay on top once we arrive there.
The biggest lesson, though, is that things will never again be as they once were. The TEA Party isn’t going to be the new cool thing forever but tyranny has been around as long as we’ve recorded history. In a time where fifteen minutes of fame is rapidly becoming fifteen seconds and yesterday’s hero is today’s zero (witness the souring of many on Sarah Palin), even protest has to change and grow.
But it can’t lose sight of the original message, for even when we have success the fight will be to maintain those victories.
Is it really a race, or hype?
As of today, we have a little under eight months before presumptive Democrat nominee (and incumbent governor) Martin O’Malley tangles with assumed Republican choice (and former governor) Bob Ehrlich. Both face primary challengers but it’s likely these two will be the guys come November.
I noted the other day that Ehrlich is closing the gap and this fact was not lost on the Rothenburg Political Report either. According to them, O’Malley is no longer “safe” but holds a “narrow advantage.”
Of course, the Maryland GOP is happy at the prospect, as party Chair Audrey Scott noted:
Governor O’Malley should be very concerned. Maryland voters are rejecting his agenda of high taxes, high spending and growing our state’s government… Marylanders are hurting under the failed leadership of Governor O’Malley, who has proven to be only accountable to party bosses and big wigs, not Maryland families. The primary responsibility of an elected official is to listen to their constituency. Governor O’Malley is deaf to the cries and concerns of Maryland citizens who are hurting from his out-of-control fiscal policies. Since Governor O’Malley has taken office nearly 100,000 Marylanders have lost their jobs and unemployment has reached a 26 year high, clearly he is not listening to what the people of Maryland need.”
In response, the Democrats are pooh-poohing Ehrlich’s chances. Noted Isaac Salazar on The OnLine State:
On page 19 of the (leaked to Politico) RNC document Steele and the RNC go through their targets in the 2010 gubernatorial elections. They seem confident about a lot of states – everything from Maine to New Mexico, Oregon to Tennessee, Michigan to Oklahoma, Wyoming to Ohio… OK, you get our point.
Noticeably absent… Maryland. In fact, Maryland was one of only three Democratic-held states the RNC is NOT targeting (New Hampshire and Arkansas being the other two).
With Bob Ehrlich an all but announced candidate for Governor, you would think he merits at least a mention? I mean, he is a former Governor, right?
It’s noteworthy this Salazar piece came out the day before Rothenburg’s analysis, and perhaps this could eventually change the RNC’s thinking. (It’s also funny the Democrats are worried about Michigan and Ohio – aren’t those incumbent Democrats doing a bang-up job on their state economies?)
The long-term horse race aspect is certainly more entertaining in a race that is pretty much cut-and-dried like Ehrlich vs. O’Malley than a divided one where several Republicans vie for a chance to become what conventional wisdom assumes will be cannon fodder for Barbara Mikulski. (Then again, conventional wisdom pretty much figured Scott Brown would never win the “Kennedy seat” either.)
So, newspapers need something to sell copies and bloggers need things to write about. While it’s good the experts feel we have a competitive race for governor, some of the undercards which are just as important (like a Jim Mathias trying to flip a longtime GOP seat to the D’s or the prospect his Delegate seat will go Republican) get all but ignored.
In those cases, less hype may make a better race. I’m looking forward to some big GOP wins come November.
Amedori launches online petition, calls on Mikulski to oppose reconciliation
Breaking news comes to me this morning from U.S. Senate candidate Carmen Amedori’s camp.
In an effort to contrast herself with longtime incumbent Barbara Mikulski and create pressure on the Democrat to forgo a vote for reconciliation (should it become necessary), Amedori has set up an online petition:
Today, Carmen Amedori, Republican candidate for United States Senate in Maryland, launched an online petition calling on United States Senator Barbara Mikulski to vote no on reconciliation for Obamacare.
“Reconciliation is not the method to pass health care reform. This parliamentary maneuver has never been used for such a sweeping piece of legislation,” said Amedori. “The President’s plan for health care reform is seriously flawed. That’s why no one elected Republican Senator will support the legislation.”
Reconciliation has been used 19 times since 1980. 12 of those times the procedure was used to pass omnibus budget bills that had an overwhelming support in the Senate. Only on 2 occasions were the budget bills controversial enough to lack bipartisan support.
“I am launching this online effort to send a message to our Senator that Marylanders don’t want Obamacare forced down our throats and that she should vote against reconciliation,” stated Amedori. “A national mandate is not a way to make health care more affordable.”
People can join Carmen’s effort by visiting her campaign website or by friending Amedori For U.S. Senate on Facebook.
Amedori believes that a health care reform package must include tort reform, associated health plans, rules that allow people to purchase health insurance across state lines, more emphasis on health savings accounts and a method for allowing people with pre-existing conditions to purchase insurance coverage.
Amedori is a former Maryland House Delegate where she served on the Judiciary Committee and quickly rose to the position of Assistant Minority Leader. She earned a distinguished reputation for being tough on crime, a strong advocate for property rights, and a champion for small business. In 2004, Governor Robert Ehrlich honored Amedori by appointing her to the Maryland Parole Commission where she served until last year.
(snip)
Amedori believes that as the next United States Senator she can do a better job for the people of Maryland. “It is time we had a Senator focused on results rather than political gamesmanship. As a former member of the House of Delegates, I know how to make a difference. Barbara has had 24 years and now is the time for new leadership,” added Amedori.
It should be noted I edited the original release slightly, but the point remains that if the Obamacare supporters choose the reconciliation route (which I doubt, since the House passage of the Senate bill gives us legislation which wouldn’t necessarily need to be reconciled anyway) Barbara would almost surely align with her fellow Democrats as being one of the 51 votes. Certainly Mikulski would feel safe enough in her seat to do so.
The other obvious reason for having the petition is gathering contacts for other communications from her campaign, which is fine – after all, I think voters should be well-informed about all of the candidates running. Carmen is unlike the others running in that she has a legislative record, and it’s one that’s been judged to be fairly conservative by the former Maryland Accountability Project (Amedori served in the House of Delegates 1999-2004.) But each voter should study all the candidates, judging their stated principles, goals, and experience inside and out of the political realm.
Since I got the release a little bit ahead of time, I can vouch the petition is up and running and I already signed it. You should too, even if you support one of the other six candidates currently in the race.
Poll update – day 3
It looks like two candidates’ supporters are taking this seriously.
As of about 3:00 this afternoon, it’s become a two-way race:
- Eric Wargotz 1,785 (49%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 1,156 (32%)
- Jim Rutledge 499 (14%)
- Carmen Amedori 128 (4%)
- John Kimble 43 (1%)
- Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)
- John Curran 4 (<1%)
Let’s look at what happened in the last 24 hours or so:
- Eric Wargotz 948 (54%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 783 (46%)
- Jim Rutledge 23 (1%)
- Carmen Amedori 2 (<1%)
No one else got a vote, so it’s obvious that this poll may have run its course as a useful exercise.
The percentage changes are as follows:
- Corrogan Vaughn +12 (20 to 32)
- Eric Wargotz +4 (45 to 49)
- Daniel McAndrew 0 (stays at <1)
- John Curran 0 (stays at <1)
- John Kimble -1 (2 to 1)
- Carmen Amedori -3 (7 to 4)
- Jim Rutledge -12 (26 to 14)
The poll will end on Tuesday, and I’ll have the final totals and the conclusions I draw from them that night.
By the way, the “Eric” you see on the Polldaddy.com comments is not the candidate Eric Wargotz. I figured you’d know that but he took the time today to point out it wasn’t the case. I can moderate these comments to some extent, but only after the fact.
I think when I wrap this exercise up I may post some of the better comments and cases for some of the candidates.
Weekend of local rock volume 30
I’m sure many of you come here in this timeslot and expect an op-ed from me as my normal practice is to repost my most recently cleared column from Liberty Features Syndicate at 10:30 on Sunday morning. But today I’m doing an op-ed of a different sort. (and no, it wasn’t syndicated.)
This was the scene when I walked into the bar area of Flavors of Italy Friday night.
My significant other and I had debated about dinner yesterday since we bowl on Friday nights, and I mentioned pizza might hit the spot. Yes, I knew The Permilla Project was playing so that was why I suggested Flavors of Italy.
When I peeked into that bar, I thought I saw every hipster, tripster, and anyone else who wanted to see and be seen within a 10 mile radius of the club.
We actually heard most of the first set before seeing them as we were seated in the restaurant portion enjoying a Continental-style dinner at 10:00 at night. A little dinner music, maestro?
If you take rock as a base, add some jazz influence and the willingness to extend the song to create the feel of perhaps a heavier version of O.A.R. you’d come up with The Permilla Project. The folks up front were certainly swaying to the music and a college town like Salisbury is a natural home base for such a band.
I can see why this is my blogger friend (afterthegoldrush) Ridgely Griffith’s favorite band, they are pretty good. Permilla isn’t completely my cup of tea but they are entertaining.
So next time The Permilla Project is at Flavors of Italy, I encourage you to come early, get a pizza, and grab a seat. You may not choose to stay in it, though. It’s a band and venue which will make you wish it was summer since you can stand outside and hear them (FoI has outdoor seating in the summer, but it’s limited.)
Then again, they may have to find a bigger venue before they know it.
Poll tracking – day 2
Well, things haven’t slowed down with my U.S. Senate poll, as the total response closes in on the 2,000 mark.
Again, I stress this isn’t a strictly scientific poll as there is the opportunity for multiple responses from the same person – but there is a time-out period built in. Yes, the system can be gamed but my theory is that the gamesmanship will occur roughly in proportion with actual support.
Here are the results I had shortly before 4:00 this afternoon:
- Eric Wargotz 837 (45%)
- Jim Rutledge 476 (26%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 373 (20%)
- Carmen Amedori 126 (7%)
- John Kimble 43 (2%)
- Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)
- John Curran 4 (<1%)
The other key number is tracking the daily totals as opposed to the overall totals. It was just about 24 hours since my first update, and the change since then has been most meaningful for Wargotz and Amedori. The percentage is the share of the votes cast in the last day or so.
- Eric Wargotz 582 (54%)
- Jim Rutledge 247 (23%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 220 (20%)
- Carmen Amedori 31 (3%)
- John Kimble 3 (<1%)
- Daniel McAndrew 2 (<1%)
- John Curran 0 (0%)
I did some checking on my Facebook page among the universe of friends I have and those associated with the Corrogan Vaughn campaign (including the candidate) plugged the poll twice, while a Wargotz ally did it once. Now here is the precentage difference from yesterday to today – you can see who benefitted at whose expense.
- Eric Wargotz +12 (33 to 45)
- Corrogan Vaughn 0 (still at 20)
- Daniel McAndrew 0 (still at <1)
- John Curran -1 (1 to <1)
- Jim Rutledge -3 (29 to 26)
- John Kimble -3 (5 to 2)
- Carmen Amedori -5 (12 to 7)
This is what I mean by depth of support – Wargotz’s supporters continue to flood the poll and perhaps distort it somewhat. But the last time I did this Wargotz held a large early lead only to see Jim Rutledge supporters close the gap at the end, so perhaps this may play out again.
Tomorrow I’ll do another update – I expect the pace to slow down some during the weekend but a big share from someone could have a significant impact on the results. The poll continues for a few more days (I have an end date set for it but I won’t say when it is) so we’ll see whether the supporters can keep going – it determines depth of support and also helps me determine whether my theory is validated or not.
Poll tracking – day 1
With the huge interest in my poll regarding who should face Barbara Mikulski for the U.S. Senate seat she currently occupies, I thought it would be a good idea to keep a daily track of it for the duration.
Most of the major candidates have posted about it on their Facebook pages multiple times, so the sampling size is extraordinarily high. As of 3 p.m. this afternoon there were 779 total votes cast, and the interim results follow:
- Eric Wargotz 255 (33%)
- Jim Rutlegdge 229 (29%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 153 (20%)
- Carmen Amedori 95 (12%)
- John Kimble 40 (5%)
- John Curran 4 (1%)
- Daniel McAndrew 3 (<1%)
Obviously this is a very tight race and I encourage people to stay involved! I’ll try to keep this tracking going for the duration of the poll, which will continue for the next few days.
A heavy heart (requiem for M.N.)
Through the grapevine I’ve found out one of the good guys in Maryland blogging passed away today.
While he blogged out of Anne Arundel County, I met Mike Netherland at the Tawes event in Crisfield two years ago, after I found out he was a fan of my site. In this we were a mutual admiration society; Mike wasn’t the most prolific blogger at his own site but he was an outspoken commenter in other venues and in all respects was a great spokesman for the conservative cause.
Most times death is unexpected, and judging by his last post Mike was looking forward to a lot more blogging. It reminds us again that we need to approach life by living it – little did Mike know that his version of “middle age” was several years ago.
In the space Mike had for his “about me” profile, he wrote in part:
Approaching middle age with not-so-quiet desperation, I find solace in my writing. I love trying to get people to think for themselves, thus I have a small but hardy band of friends who seem to tolerate me.
Hopefully he’s in a place where he can find out that he had more friends than he thought and we did a lot more than tolerate him. Perhaps he didn’t have the most well-read site but he held his little corner of Maryland’s blogosphere well and we’re all poorer for his loss.
Rest in peace, Mike.
Stealing a post
My original intention was to write a very short post highlighting an excellent, well-documented piece on Human Events by Newt Gingrich regarding the specter of reconciliation – after all, he’s been in Congress so I would have to defer to his expertise on the subject. I don’t always agree with Newt but I’m a fan and the man has a pretty good understanding of history.
But in looking for the actual website for the above link (I get the Newt Gingrich Letter in my e-mail so I don’t necessarily go to Human Events all the time) I found an op-ed by Maryland U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Eric Wargotz detailing his trip to Massachusetts during the exciting final days of Scott Brown’s campaign.
What I found most interesting was that Eric didn’t pull any rank during the visit, going out and slogging in the trenches like hundreds of other political volunteers. Having done petition drives in the cold and snow of January in Ohio for a candidate who wasn’t even in my district, lit drops and door knocking in October’s chill, and working the polls on a number of raw and rainy Election Days both here and in my native area I could relate.
And while Eric didn’t have the chance to hang around to savor Scott Brown’s eventual victory, there is a thrill for those of us who are political junkies as the elections draw closer.
Yet it’s both political junkies and agnostics who can make a difference in the battle over health care. Newt’s article is important because he describes the process which either health care bill needs to go through in order to be passed. Aside from a few small cracks here and there, the GOP wall of opposition has held fairly firm over the last many months these Obamacare proposals have been debated (remember, the original goal was to have health care done by last August’s recess.) With Frank Kratovil being considered as one of the possible key votes on the current reform packages being considered, it’s very important to let him know his original opposition should stand.
Unfortunately, none of the phone calls and e-mails beseeching them to “just say no” to Obamacare are likely to dissuade our two United States Senators from toeing the liberal Democrat line and voting in its favor. Since Barbara Mikulski has put aside those rumors she was calling it a career, the national GOP will likely not invest much time or effort into the Maryland Senate race. (Too bad, because the money they wasted on Dede Scozzafava may have come in handy here.)
It just so happens that Wargotz is hosting an online “Mikulski Retirement Party” (it’s really a ‘money bomb’ fundraiser) tomorrow. That’s an idea borrowed from the Brown campaign too, and if it works half as well as Scott’s he’ll gain an even larger financial advantage over his two main contenders. (He had a huge cash-on-hand advantage on Jim Rutledge at the end of 2009, but Wargotz’s pot was less than 1/10 the size of Mikulski’s. Carmen Amedori has just entered the race so she has no FEC reporting data yet.)
Right now we have to play the hand we were dealt in 2008, though, so it’s up to us to convince the jokers we have to vote in our country’s best interest and scrap this health care debacle once and for all.
Please note that the opinions expressed on monoblogue are not necessarily those of the Wicomico County Republican Party Central Committee, of which I'm a member. (But they probably should be.)
News from the loony left:
