The sprint to the finish
Standing as we are eight weeks out from the primary, if you were to consider the primary campaign calendar analogous to the general election calendar, we are at Labor Day. In the fall campaign, Labor Day is considered the point where people begin to pay attention to the election and start to make their final decision.
Because this is a Presidential election year, Republicans and Democrats in most of Maryland will only have a few choices to make when primary voting arrives in late March. (Some will also have local races to consider.) In seven out of eight districts for both parties voters will have a choice for Congress, while all Maryland voters who participate in the primary will select their party’s standardbearer for the U.S. Senate seat. Only Republicans will have a choice for President as no one stepped forth to challenge Barack Obama on the primary ballot. There is also only one Republican running in the First Congressional District – incumbent Andy Harris – while Dutch Ruppersberger enjoys a similar free ride in his Second District Democratic primary. Convention delegates are also at stake for both parties in each Congressional district.
Now that the stage is set, it’s very likely that only two or three GOP presidential candidates will be left standing by the time the race reaches Maryland on April 3. The good news is that Maryland and the District of Columbia may be pretty much the only game in town that day. Wisconsin voters will be much more mindful of the effort to recall Governor Scott Walker and, depending on whether the Texas legislative districts go to court or not, their scheduled April 3 primary is likely to be pushed back.
The State of the State is light-years away from what our governor thinks it is
Normally I’m pretty fair and even-handed, so since it took me about five minutes to read the Governor’s thoughts and ten minutes to watch the GOP response, I’ll link to the text and embed the video:
Besides, I didn’t vote for O’Malley anyway. There’s much more below the jump.
Four bits a gallon (or more) for a state gas tax?
Governor Martin O’Malley, he of the trial balloons, may have yet another one up his sleeve.
His latest (of many) tax proposals would extend the state’s 6% sales tax to purchases of gasoline, on top of the current 23.5 cents per gallon surcharge the state takes. If adopted, Maryland would join a handful of other states which use this nebulous practice of profiting off high gasoline prices.
The other states which do this are California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and New York. To see what impact this proposed tax would have on our wallets, we need to use three methods of comparison. First, here are the per-gallon gasoline taxes charged by each of these states and Maryland, ranked lowest to highest, not including sales taxes or various fees added by each state: (Source)
- Florida, 4 cents per gallon
- Georgia, 7.5 cents per gallon
- New York, 8.1 cents per gallon
- Indiana, 18 cents per gallon
- Illinois, 19 cents per gallon
- Michigan, 19 cents per gallon
- Maryland, 23.5 cents per gallon
- California, 35.7 cents per gallon
And now the sales tax rates which are (or would presumably be) applied to gasoline, also listed lowest to highest:
- California, 2.25%
- Georgia, 4%
- Maryland, 6%
- Michigan, 6%
- Illinois, 6.25%
- Indiana, 7%
- New York, 8%
- Florida, 12%
Finally, the combined bite between all taxes (federal, state, and local) impacting gasoline in the states which charge sales tax, which includes where Maryland would eventually rank. To do their calculations, API uses the average cost per gallon in each state according to AAA as of 1/1/12. For Maryland, I couldn’t find the price on the specific 1/1 date but according to the latest AAA figures, the average price one month ago from today was $3.26 and that should suffice for being roughly the price on January 1st. Again, this is lowest to highest.
- Georgia, 47.8 cents per gallon
- Florida, 53.4 cents per gallon
- Illinois, 57.3 cents per gallon
- Indiana, 57.3 cents per gallon
- Michigan, 57.8 cents per gallon
- Maryland,
61.558.9 cents per gallon* - California, 67 cents per gallon
- New York, 67.4 cents per gallon
If this is passed, Maryland would have the fifth-highest total gasoline tax in the country, trailing New York, California, Connecticut (also 67 cents per gallon) and Hawaii (65.5 cents per gallon.) Maryland drivers would be ceding a much higher bite out of their wallets than their neighbors in West Virginia (51.8 cents per gallon), Pennsylvania (50.7 cents per gallon), Washington D.C. (41.9 cents per gallon), Delaware (41.4 cents per gallon), and Virginia (38.2 cents per gallon.) Retailers in those states who are fortunate enough to be close to the Maryland line are probably licking their chops about now.
Of course, this doesn’t factor in the addition of some of MOM’s other trial balloons like a separate 15 cent per-gallon increase in the gasoline tax or increasing the sales tax to 7 percent. And as Todd Eberly points out at The FreeStater Blog, this could all be a feint to make a direct 15 cent additional surcharge more palatable.
As it is currently proposed, the gasoline sales tax would be phased in 2% at a time so drivers wouldn’t be hit all at once. But when they’re projecting $613 million in new annual revenue at a time when the state is over $1 billion in the hole, it will be a surprise if they don’t rush the process. It may get passed this way for now, but wait for the new, improved bill to accelerate the increase next session when money is still tight.
We’re also being told that a gas tax increase is about infrastructure jobs in fixing bridges and roads. But the Maryland Public Policy Institute does a magnificent job of not only blowing that argument out of the water but also pointing out the folly of public transportation while they’re at it. Simply put, it’s another component of the War on Rural Maryland as those of us who drive greater distances because we choose to live away from urban woes will be subsidizing those who ride the buses or light rail in more-developed areas. That group doesn’t quite comprise the 1% but they’re pretty darn close, and they don’t come close to paying their own way.
Putting private transport out of reach to the average family through higher prices also fits neatly into the goals of so-called “Smart Growth” and “sustainable development”, which strives to increase the usage of mass transit. Perhaps this is a line of thought more suited to the tinfoil hat crowd, but one can’t deny it’s much easier to control the population if their movements are controlled.
In any event, the first step in rebuilding Maryland’s crumbling transportation infrastructure needs to come from locking away the Transportation Trust Fund from greedy governors who can’t shake their spending addiction. And if we take back the half of transportation spending we waste on a tiny percentage of commuters and instead gave them a more appropriate share of a nickel per dollar, there are a lot of bridges, road widening projects, and traffic control measures which could be completed for the rest of us who get tired of sitting in traffic.
On the Eastern Shore, we already will bear a significant burden from the newly increased tolls on the Bay Bridge, so we should get a break when it comes to gasoline taxes. The state should quit using the knee-jerk reaction it always seems to have about raising taxes and instead consider spending the vast amounts already collected more wisely.
* I was also taxing the existing tax, not the actual price. Subtract out the 41.9 cents we currently pay in taxes and the sales tax is actually on $2.84 of the $3.26 per gallon.
Movin’ on out
As I’ve said from time to time on this forum and others, Maryland is the first place (besides, to a limited extent, my college alma mater) where I lived by choice. And the main reasons I moved here, as opposed to other prospective places where I could have worked like Jacksonville, Las Vegas, or Phoenix, were the somewhat rural setting and the idea that this area had plenty of room for growth. Needless to say, when compared to those urban areas, Salisbury was by far the smallest location I considered.
There are serious economic handicaps about living here which have always existed more or less, but at the time of my arrival they were held somewhat in check by the state government in place in the fall of 2004. Sure, Bob Ehrlich was no doctrinaire conservative but most of his ideas for revenue enhancement were limited to increasing user fees, and Maryland participated fully in the national economic boom which was taking place during the Ehrlich era here. Unemployment for the state was just 4.4% when Ehrlich took office and 3.6% when he left – the rate never exceeded 4.6% during his tenure. Obviously things are different now, and Maryland reflects the national situation in that respect. Oddly enough, though, the other three places I was considering were among the hardest hit by the recession, so while Salisbury never quite reached that exhilarating height this fact made the low point easier to handle.
An update on the Audrey Scott flap
Obviously this story from yesterday has gotten a little bit of play around the state because former MDGOP Chair (now National Committeewoman candidate) Audrey Scott claimed we bloggers got it wrong.
(Insofar as I know, those “bloggers” would be me. Richard Cross of Cross Purposes made the statement as part of linking to the Washington Post story on Facebook, and I just pointed to his site as a professional courtesy. To date he hasn’t weighed in on the subject on his site.)
Regardless, Scott’s contention is that she was only at the rally to support protecting the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF), a position she staked out at Kevin Waterman’s Questing for Atlantis website. Apparently she also defended herself at the Montgomery County Republican Central Committee meeting, according to county Chair Mark Uncapher.
But Mark also sent along a link to the press release the Greater Baltimore Committee did regarding the rally, noting that their Chairman also served on the Blue Ribbon Commission which recommended the gas tax – along with a slew of other fee and toll increases and enactments, including “development of revenue mechanisms that are directly tied to the use of the transportation system…commonly referred to as mileage-based or vehicle miles traveled (VMT) charges” – in the first place. (Not only that, those who are up in arms about PlanMaryland should also pay attention to Issue Area III in the 32-page report.) The rally’s basic purpose was to show support to the General Assembly for raising $800 million annually in revenues for the TTF, according to the GBC release. A tax increase is also part of the GBC legislative agenda.
To be fair to Audrey, neither she nor Doug Duncan, who was also quoted in the Post article (which was a reprint of an AP story), was a featured speaker at the event. Apparently she was a face in the crowd who wanted to lend her support for the protection of the Transportation Trust Fund. Certainly I would like to see the TTF protected as well – if we have to have any gas tax, it should go to keep up roads and bridges. Mass transit should pay its own way, although the Blue Ribbon Commission believes farebox collection should only make up 35% of operating revenues. So much for building bridges and highways.
But as I said yesterday the perception of Audrey Scott, who is a symbol of the Maryland Republican Party, being at a pro-tax increase rally was something the Post would seize on to undermine the principled position Republicans in the General Assembly would stand upon that we are taxed enough already. It doesn’t necessarily matter what she actually said, for perception is often reality.
On the other hand, if we eliminate the items which aren’t germane to transportation infrastructure, like mass transit, and pass the legislation already introduced by a bipartisan coalition that would protect the TTF, we can see what can be done under the existing tax structure first.
Let me state for the record that I haven’t made up my mind in the National Committeewoman race yet. But when Audrey Scott is already infamous in some quarters for her “party over everything” statement, she’s already behind the 8-ball with a lot of Republican regulars and supporters. And I come from a muckraking county Central Committee which definitely goes against the flow the establishment attempts to create because we have a heavy TEA Party influence on our body, so Audrey already has a tough sell locally.
Now if you want to know what was said at this rally, the Greater Baltimore Committee has a YouTube channel with four videos of the January 19 event. None of them feature Audrey, so presumably the AP stringer covering the rally recognized her as someone important and got her take. But what I did hear being said was speakers who were only too happy to raise our taxes, with the TTF protection being secondary at best.
Judge for yourself whether you agree with me that her attendance wasn’t a politically wise choice.
Update: Scott has garnered a key local endorsement. District 38B Delegate Mike McDermott wrote in a note to local Central Committee members:
I ask you to give strong consideration to (Audrey Scott’s) candidacy as I know that she has everything it takes to represent the interests of Maryland and our party to the uttermost.
He also pointed out Scott’s involvement in the Ehrlich administration as Secretary of Planning. One thing in Scott’s favor: no move toward a PlanMaryland was made during her tenure there.
Maryland’s role
I was doing a quick bit of research just to see something I was interested in.
Most of you know that Maryland’s presidential primary is April 3rd. It’s key because we are among the states participating in the first set of “winner-take-all” contests – the other primaries before us are supposed to allocate delegates proportionately.
I like the system because it doesn’t automatically mean the winner of the first two or three primaries will be the nominee, since that person can’t get a large lead on the field. But after March that all changes.
Presumably Mitt Romney would be the winner here in Maryland, but that’s not set in stone. It’s also important to note that we share our date with two other states and the District of Columbia – one of them being Texas, where it would be a shock to see anyone but Rick Perry win. The other state in the mix is Wisconsin, and at the moment they’re not really focused on presidential politics because there’s a nasty recall campaign ongoing.
Also worthy of note is the fact that in the previous two weeks there are only two primary elections, one in Illinois and one in Louisiana – and neither occur the Tuesday before ours. The upshot is that we may actually have some campaigning about these parts, and that could in turn help the Republican Party here in the state.
A little food for thought.
The Maryland Model (part three)
This will be the final part of a three-part series; in case you’re getting caught up here are parts one and two.
In truth, though, this part won’t be based strictly on the Maryland Model. It’s actually going to be a critique of a presentation I ran across, one which is presumably some sort of PowerPoint presentation translated to Scribed for the purposes of disseminating. Called Become a Force Multiplier: 5 Simple Tasks for American Activists, it addresses many of the issues we will face in 2012 with a particular focus on Big Labor’s aspect. (Not surprisingly, since it’s done by LaborUnionReport.com.) More importantly, they note that:
Several of the tactics and action models described herein have been adapted from models used by unions and other Left-wing groups. In other words, the Left is already using these models, you need to as well.
Fight fire with fire, as it is said.
A parting on the left
It looks like the rumors may be true, the exploring is over, and Republicans can rejoice in the fact there will be a potentially divisive primary fight for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Ben Cardin. (h/t: Maryland Juice.)
State Senator C. Anthony Muse of Prince George’s County will emerge as the first serious challenger to Cardin from the left. While there are several others who also share the Democratic line, the reality is that most are perennial fringe candidates (take Lih Young as a nearly incomprehensible great example) who would be fortunate to pick up 10 percent between the lot of them. As proof of their perennial nature, four of the other Democrats vying for Senate were on the ballot just two years ago: J.P. Cusick and Ralph Jaffe picked up the 13% of the vote Martin O’Malley didn’t get in the Democratic primary for governor while between them Chris Garner and Lih Young bagged just under 9% in the 2010 Senatorial race. (Garner did finish second, a respectable 75 points behind incumbent Barbara Mikulski.)
But Muse presents a different sort of challenge, making the race perhaps a little more reminiscent of the 2006 primary where Cardin emerged victorious from a crowded 18-candidate scrum with only 44% of the vote, beating Kweisi Mfume by just three points. While Cardin has the obvious advantage of incumbency, he may have the same difficulty in Prince George’s County – where Mfume trounced Cardin by 55,000 votes – but fewer names to split the other 12,000 votes from there which went to the sixteen others in the 2006 race. Moreover, the disadvantage to Muse in not being as well known in the Baltimore area as Mfume was would likely be negated in the rapidly growing counties of southern Maryland, where Muse is more recognized. So there is a definite path to victory in Muse’s case.
However, one handicap for Muse which will help Cardin immensely is that the primary campaign will overlap with the General Assembly session. Unless Muse is willing to give up his State Senate seat, he’ll have one hand tied behind his back insofar as fundraising and campaigning goes.
So what does this mean to the Republican who emerges from the GOP primary? For one thing, a strong primary challenge to Cardin will help negate the monetary advantage he’s certain to have – as of the September 30 filing Cardin had a war chest of $2.3 million he was sitting on, with no Republican even into six digits with their total. It goes without saying that a Democrat in Maryland is going to have a financial advantage over a Republican, but it would be more advantageous to see some of that used up well before November.
But there are two other possible effects. Muse was the lone Senate Democrat to vote against the Congressional redistricting plan Martin O’Malley and his cronies foisted upon the state because it was felt that minorities got the shaft. Add the bruised feelings sure to occur when minority voters feel put upon by the Democratic establishment once again because they’re expected to unquestioningly back a white candidate who defeated one of their own in the primary and, though they’ll turn out in droves to support the top of the ticket, the remaining races may see serious undervoting. The trick will be getting Republicans who know the state is likely written off by the national GOP to turn out and vote for the whole ballot. Most Marylanders will only see three races: President, Senator, and their local Congressman. (A smattering will get other local races and ballot issues to vote on as well.) While turnout is usually best for a Presidential election, it’s still nowhere near 100 percent.
It’s nice to see a little bit of drama on the other side for a change, and it could serve as a warmup for the real battle royale sure to come once 2014 rolls around and offices aplenty open up across the state.
The spirit of giving…3,200 signatures
Now I think I’ve received everything – but then again I haven’t.
I’ve never been asked to sign a nominating petition for a Presidential candidate to get on the Maryland ballot, until yesterday – but it wasn’t for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, or Michele Bachmann. Strange thing was that the person in question is someone I’ve never heard of, but he’s attempting to start at the top.
Oregon resident Mark Callahan is one of the dozens and dozens who have filed with the Federal Elections Commission to run for President, and in order to get on the Maryland ballot he needs to have at least 3,200 valid signatures (with at least 400 from each Congressional district.) I checked out his website, and while he might not get my vote I’m certainly willing to help him out. His platform is conservative with some libertarian touches, in my rough estimation. I think he’d be better served running for Congress or perhaps a local state of Oregon office first, but I suppose some people just like to start at the top.
So how was I selected for this task? I suspect that Callahan made a pretty logical decision of contacting the over 250 Central Committee members in Maryland, of which I am one. Little did he know he would get some free press out of the deal, although I’ve noticed he has visited Iowa and New Hampshire like the more well-known candidates have. No campaign swing through Maryland yet.
But perhaps the largest stumbling block Callahan may have is his age; if elected this year he would be by far the youngest President because he doesn’t reach the Constitutionally mandated age of 35 until next May. Still, if you want to get him on the Maryland ballot his petition form is here. Heck, I’ll sign my name for him just as I would for any serious GOP candidate.
Who knows? Maybe this little taste of the national political world will stand him in good stead later in life; after all, Herman Cain was a little-known Presidential candidate for the 2000 election and turned the world upside down a dozen years later. And considering the fact Mark’s taken the time to do a little campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire it certainly makes the case he’s not just in it to see his name on the ballot line. Maybe – just maybe – we may see the same resurgence Cain had from Callahan around 2024.
Just make sure to stay faithful to your spouse and don’t give money to strange women.
Lower Shore gerrymandering in Friday night document dump
Late this evening, the Maryland Department of Planning released their versions (House of Delegates and Senate) of the redistricting map for the General Assembly. For the purpose of this post, though, I’m going to concentrate on Districts 37 and 38.
The new District 37 is a lot like the old one, as they maintained a majority-minority district in 37A which snakes along the U.S. 50 corridor between Salisbury and Cambridge, with a arm of the district heading up toward Hurlock in Dorchester County. But District 37B now makes nearly an entire crescent around the single-member district and swallows up much of the Wicomico County territory formerly in District 38A. Geographically it’s a huge district that takes in all of Talbot County, the southern end of Caroline County, most of Dorchester County and the southern and western ends of Wicomico County, plus a small area near Sharptown. In essence, it moved a little bit southward and eastward.
As for District 38, well, I got part of my wish as it will now be comprised of three single-Delegate seats. The 38A portion, though, now takes in all of Somerset County and the southern half of Worcester County, with a spike running along the U.S. 113 corridor into the Berlin area. I predicted this would happen because it would force two incumbent Republicans (Charles Otto and Mike McDermott) into the same district. Looks like we have our 2014 District 38 Senate candidate now.
District 38B maintains only a sliver of the Wicomico County portion of the existing district, and looks tailor-made for another run by Norm Conway. To me it looks like the western boundary hardly changed so it’s now primarily a Salisbury/Delmar/Fruitland district, as it did move a little bit southward to take in that former 38A territory. The eastern side of Wicomico County and the northern half of Worcester County (except Berlin) now become part of the new District 38C.
So who does this benefit? Obviously the new District 37 will probably keep the incumbents in office, or at least decrease the chance for a non-minority to win the 37A seat. Rich Colburn picked up a decently Republican chunk of Wicomico County but lost quite a bit of Caroline County to District 36. So that is probably a wash. But District 38 was built simply to eliminate one Republican from the area, and the extension of District 38A into Berlin may have been on the behalf of Berlin mayor Gee Williams, who tried for the seat before. Perhaps it’s a more lopsidedly Republican seat, but now it gets only one Delegate.
And I’m stuck with Norm Conway, since I’ll be in the new and smaller District 38B. Unless Mike McDermott moves closer to me, he won’t be my Delegate anymore in a practical sense. But that’s okay – it just means I can give old Five Dollar more flak if he decides to run again, which I hope he doesn’t. Given the fact the district maintained its irregular shape at the western end, my guess is that he will and they eliminated the rural parts of his district to help his cause.
Finally, I’m disappointed with the MDP’s map since it wouldn’t allow me to figure out the new districts close-up – that is unless my laptop isn’t up to the task. So forgive me my wild guesses as to where the districts lie, but before that site failed me I did verify my home is in 38B. Not by a whole lot, though.
Update: This example may illustrate how cut up our area is. Along the first two miles of Mount Hermon Road you can have houses in four different districts. At the far west end of the road and up to Civic Avenue it’s the border between the extreme eastern fringe of District 37A on the north side and 38B on the south side. Then about a mile or so it’s in entirely in 38B, until the road passes under U.S. 13. Then it’s solely in District 38C for a short distance until it crosses a creek just west of Hobbs Road, when the highway becomes the border between 38C on one side and District 37B on the other. Finally, just past Walston Switch Road, the road becomes part of 38C. To use east side landmarks, the airport is in 37B, Perdue Stadium is in 38C, WinterPlace Park is in 38B, and the established part of the Aydelotte neighborhood is on the edge of 37A.
Not enough to tax?
After raising the cigarette tax in 2008 and the alcohol tax last year, a public health advocate (read: lover of big government and the nanny state) wants to jack up taxes on cigars from their current 15 percent rate, according to a recent Washington Times story by David Hill. Vincent DeMarco also spearheaded the unnecessary alcohol tax increase which took effect earlier this year.
I find it interesting that the angle DeMarco uses to justify yet another sin tax is teen smoking. Apparently cigarettes are now too expensive for teens to purchase – thanks to the additional taxes – so they are embracing cigars instead. DeMarco is quoted in the Times, “Anything that is going to stop young people from smoking is a good thing.” Well, sir, I have news for you – raising taxes on cigars and other tobacco products won’t work for that intended purpose. But you’ll certainly extract more money out of those adults who choose to smoke.
Maryland’s reborn spectator sport: how many General Assembly members will run for Congress?
We don’t have a representative from all eight districts quite yet, but the news that Minority Leader Tony O’Donnell is going to challenge entrenched Fifth District Congressman Steny Hoyer brings up the question of who will be minding the store?
Let’s look at it district by district:
- Obviously the First District has been made more safely Republican, as former State Senator Andy Harris won the seat in 2010 and hasn’t seen any significant Democratic opposition yet. At one time State Senator Jim Mathias was thought to be interested in running, but that may not be in the cards due to a increase in the GOP base there.
- In the Second District, where Dutch Ruppersberger has been in office for several terms, the name originally linked to a run was Delegate Pat McDonough. But he’s been waffling over the last months over whether to run for that seat or a statewide U.S. Senate seat; meanwhile former Senate Minority Leader Nancy Jacobs stepped down from that post in order to explore a Second District run.
- In the Third and Fourth Districts – John Sarbanes and Donna Edwards, respectively – no member of the General Assembly has stepped forward to make a challenge. In those cases, we’ll probably have to wait until they retire.
- As noted above, Tony O’Donnell is challenging Steny Hoyer in the Fifth District.
- The Sixth District is a bipartisan circus as Democrats gerrymandered the district into being much more Democrat-friendly than the previous rendition, presumably as a favor to State Senator Rob “Gas Tax” Garagiola to run. But the GOP has its share of politicians doing battle, with current State Senator David Brinkley being joined by recently-deposed former Senator Alex Mooney in the fray – a challenge which also leaves the state GOP scrambling for a Chair during an election year. All of them will have to deal with longtime incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
- So far the Seventh and Eighth Districts, represented by Elijah Cummings and Chris Van Hollen, have also been quiet.
- Along with the possibility of Delegate McDonough seeking a Senate seat against incumbent Ben Cardin, some have also spoke about a primary challenge from State Senator C. Anthony Muse of Prince George’s County.
Obviously some of these running will survive the primary, but it will be an interesting exercise in time management to see how they juggle the prospect of a primary battle with the demands placed on them by the “90 Days of Terror” known as the annual General Assembly session. It so happens the filing deadline is also the opening day of the 2012 session and the primary itself will occur just a few days before sine die. Particularly in the Sixth District, this fact may handicap those serving in the Maryland legislature who face opponents which can devote more time to the race.
There’s no question that serving in legislative office at a local level is considered the best training for higher office: many of those who serve in a local Council or Commission graduate to become Delegates or Senators, and in turn they gain the experience voters seek in electing Congressmen and Senators. Fully half of Maryland’s Congressional delegation once served in the Maryland General Assembly.
Obviously those who are seeking election this time, with the cover of incumbency to protect them if they should lose, hope to add to that total.
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