The votes are finally cast, and the filings nigh
And it’s about time. It will be interesting to see as the evening wears on whether any of the candidates who are currently in will exit the field after today’s New Hampshire primary.
But closer to home, we found out that both parties are now represented in all eight Congressional districts, so no incumbent gets a free ride in November. Andy Harris filed today to retain his First District seat, while Republican Charles Shepherd of Gaithersburg filed to run in the Fourth Congressional District to fill out the puzzle. As of now, here’s the breakdown of how many are in each Congressional primary:
- First District: 1 Republican, 2 Democrats
- Second District: 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat
- Third District: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats
- Fourth District: 1 Republican, 3 Democrats
- Fifth District: 3 Republicans, 2 Democrats
- Sixth District: 7 Republicans, 4 Democrats
- Seventh District: 3 Republicans, 3 Democrats, and 1 unaffiliated (who is automatically advanced to the General Election in November)
- Eighth District: 2 Republicans, 2 Democrats, and 1 Green Party (also automatically on November’s ballot if nominated by the Green Party.)
- U.S. Senate: 10 Republicans, 9 Democrats
At this point, with a day and a half to go, the only two incumbents to not have primary opposition are Andy Harris in the First District and Dutch Ruppersberger in the Second.
Another interesting item is the number of General Assembly members now running:
- State Senator Nancy Jacobs is running for the Second District Congressional seat.
- Delegate Tony O’Donnell seeks the Fifth District Congressional seat.
- The Sixth District race is a no-holds-barred firefight with representatives from both General Assembly chambers: Delegate Kathy Afzali jumped in today to join Senators Rob Garagiola and David Brinkley.
- The U.S. Senate race now officially features State Senator C. Anthony Muse, who also filed today.
We also have yet to hear from Delegate Pat McDonough, who made overtures to both the Second District Congressional and U.S. Senate races over the past year. But there’s still this afternoon and all day tomorrow; however, it’s more likely any member of the General Assembly won’t wait until the last minute because the 2012 session commences tomorrow as well. Former Senator and current Maryland GOP Chair Alex Mooney hasn’t filed as of this writing, either.
I’ll update this post as events warrant in both New Hampshire and Maryland.
Update #1: As of late this evening, this is how the Maryland Republican Presidential primary ballot will shape up:
- Newt Gingrich
- Jon Huntsman
- Fred Karger
- Ron Paul
- Rick Perry
- Buddy Roemer
- Mitt Romney
- Rick Santorum
Not surprisingly, Barack Obama is the lone Democrat on the ballot. All 9 are shown as having filed today.
And by the way, Eric Wargotz IS running – to be a delegate to the national Republican convention from the First District. He has not added his name to the list for U.S. Senate, however.
With just under 50% of the vote in, Mitt Romney was long since called as the winner in New Hampshire. Not surprisingly, he’s strongest in the two counties (Hillsborough and Rockingham) which are closest to the Boston area. Ron Paul is second, but runs closest to Romney in Cheshire County in the southwest corner of the state and Coos County, which is pretty much the northern third of the state.
Update #2: According to the Washington Post, Alex Mooney is taking a pass on the Sixth District race and endorsing Roscoe Bartlett.
So here’s my questions: one, will he again assume the leadership mantle of the Maryland Republican Party? (Hey, I’m just glad I don’t have to go to a special convention just to pick a new chair.)
Second, and more importantly, what’s he going to do with the $100,000 or so he raised? Can he give it to the MDGOP? I know state candidates have the ability to do so when they close out their campaigns, but I don’t know about federal law.
Nasty infighting in the Second
So State Senator Nancy Jacobs followed through on what she said she would do and announced this week she would run for the Second Congressional District seat currently held by Dutch Ruppersberger, a politician who she claims “left for Washington (and) became Washington.” Indeed, she has some interesting endorsements already.
But there’s one Republican who’s less than thrilled. According to an article in the Towson Patch, Jacobs is being called a “puppet candidate” by Delegate Pat McDonough. Pat claims that Jacobs is only running at the behest of First District Congressman Andy Harris, saying, “(Jacobs is) a puppet for Harris.”
While McDonough is also making news by spearheading the campaign to overturn the Maryland DREAM Act, last summer he had floated the idea of seeking the Second Congressional District seat himself, even hosting a fundraiser with 2010 Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell. Just a few weeks later, he turned on a dime and flirted with the idea of instead running for the U.S. Senate. In this case, McDonough speaks like a fellow Congressional candidate, but I daresay he’s not making any friends among area Republicans by eschewing a pair of races then disparaging one of the hopefuls he has to work with in the Maryland General Assembly. Obviously we’ll know for sure next week if Pat will follow through on one of his original 2012 plans or stay with the DREAM Act fight.
But even if Delegate McDonough is right and Harris does have something to do with Nancy’s entry into the race, that’s a good job of candidate recruitment more Republicans should be following. Who has Pat McDonough brought into the fold?
Just like in the Sixth Congressional District, I don’t have a dog in this fight. But Nancy does introduce herself to new voters reasonably well:
Last year Nancy scored an impressive 92 on the monoblogue Accountability Project, earning the distinction of being a Legislative All-Star for the first time. She has a lifetime (since 2007) rating of 77, which puts her about in the middle of the GOP Senate pack. Ironically, McDonough has a lifetime rating of 78 and was a Legislative All-Star in 2009, meaning they’re fairly similar in political style.
But it’s clear which one has the bull in the china shop mentality.
Maryland’s reborn spectator sport: how many General Assembly members will run for Congress?
We don’t have a representative from all eight districts quite yet, but the news that Minority Leader Tony O’Donnell is going to challenge entrenched Fifth District Congressman Steny Hoyer brings up the question of who will be minding the store?
Let’s look at it district by district:
- Obviously the First District has been made more safely Republican, as former State Senator Andy Harris won the seat in 2010 and hasn’t seen any significant Democratic opposition yet. At one time State Senator Jim Mathias was thought to be interested in running, but that may not be in the cards due to a increase in the GOP base there.
- In the Second District, where Dutch Ruppersberger has been in office for several terms, the name originally linked to a run was Delegate Pat McDonough. But he’s been waffling over the last months over whether to run for that seat or a statewide U.S. Senate seat; meanwhile former Senate Minority Leader Nancy Jacobs stepped down from that post in order to explore a Second District run.
- In the Third and Fourth Districts – John Sarbanes and Donna Edwards, respectively – no member of the General Assembly has stepped forward to make a challenge. In those cases, we’ll probably have to wait until they retire.
- As noted above, Tony O’Donnell is challenging Steny Hoyer in the Fifth District.
- The Sixth District is a bipartisan circus as Democrats gerrymandered the district into being much more Democrat-friendly than the previous rendition, presumably as a favor to State Senator Rob “Gas Tax” Garagiola to run. But the GOP has its share of politicians doing battle, with current State Senator David Brinkley being joined by recently-deposed former Senator Alex Mooney in the fray – a challenge which also leaves the state GOP scrambling for a Chair during an election year. All of them will have to deal with longtime incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
- So far the Seventh and Eighth Districts, represented by Elijah Cummings and Chris Van Hollen, have also been quiet.
- Along with the possibility of Delegate McDonough seeking a Senate seat against incumbent Ben Cardin, some have also spoke about a primary challenge from State Senator C. Anthony Muse of Prince George’s County.
Obviously some of these running will survive the primary, but it will be an interesting exercise in time management to see how they juggle the prospect of a primary battle with the demands placed on them by the “90 Days of Terror” known as the annual General Assembly session. It so happens the filing deadline is also the opening day of the 2012 session and the primary itself will occur just a few days before sine die. Particularly in the Sixth District, this fact may handicap those serving in the Maryland legislature who face opponents which can devote more time to the race.
There’s no question that serving in legislative office at a local level is considered the best training for higher office: many of those who serve in a local Council or Commission graduate to become Delegates or Senators, and in turn they gain the experience voters seek in electing Congressmen and Senators. Fully half of Maryland’s Congressional delegation once served in the Maryland General Assembly.
Obviously those who are seeking election this time, with the cover of incumbency to protect them if they should lose, hope to add to that total.
Two fewer for Senate
For William Capps, it was an uphill battle and one he decided to no longer keep fighting. Over the weekend he withdrew from the race for Maryland’s U.S. Senate seat and endorsed Dan Bongino.
But there’s something he alluded to in his statement that I haven’t received official word on. Capps notes that Pat McDonough has already entered the Senate race, but as for now he’s still on the fence between running for the U.S. Senate and running for Congress. Earlier this summer he had announced he was considering a Senate run based on how redistricting went, but nothing is official yet. If I were a betting man, though, I think Capps is correct and McDonough will take his statewide shot.
Another name candidate who hadn’t finalized his plans is Eric Wargotz, the 2010 GOP nominee. Back in September he put out a fundraising appeal which was to help him make a decision, and I had it on pretty good authority that choice would be made around the first of November.
Well, consider Eric a couple days late but this literally just came as I was writing the post:
As many of you know, our team has been carefully considering a run for US Senate in 2012. After extensive research, I was humbled to learn that I remain popular among Republican primary voters and remain well positioned to win the Republican nomination for US Senate in Maryland once again.
Unfortunately, support for the incumbent Senator (and the President) remains strong in Maryland, despite the national political environment. In this political reality, we find ourselves in the position of being able to win the Republican nomination but falling short in the general election.
Therefore, regrettably, I have decided to forgo entering the 2012 US Senate race.
My family and I are grateful for your continued support and well-wishes over the past several years in this endeavor. I was honored to serve as your 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nominee and I will continue to work diligently to bring Maryland closer to a true, two-party state.
May God Bless you, the State of Maryland and our great Country.
So that’s the news, hot off the press. We’ll see now what move McDonough makes.
Stuck, unless a judge bails us out
I’ll let Maryland Republican Party Chair Alex Mooney get the first word in:
Earlier today, the House of Delegates passed Governor O’Malley’s gerrymandered Congressional District Plan.
After only a short debate, the House voted to pass it 91-46. It needed 85 votes for passage. We were 7 votes away from stalling the Governor’s plan. 7 votes. And last night, we were only 3 votes away from stopping it in the Senate. (Emphasis in original.)
Well, you already know how I feel about the situation, but I have two other observations to add before I call it a night.
First of all, there probably is or will shortly be a party at State Senator Rob Garagiola’s house because the governor did his level best to put him in Congress – never mind he has nothing at all in common with the residents of the “traditional” Sixth District.
Second, my hunch is pretty strong that we have one more Republican Senate entrant, and his name will not be Eric Wargotz. I think Pat McDonough sees the writing on the Congressional wall and will go for a statewide race. Of course, there is one caveat – he would have to do a lot of campaigning during the regular General Assembly session. But we know he’s running for something and it’s more likely now that a statewide race will be his preference.
But it’s those seven damn votes in the House of Delegates and three in the Senate which may haunt us for the next ten years. Even more so is the thought we were thisclose to keeping two Senate seats, and if we were only one vote short perhaps one other Democrat besides Senator Muse would have turned. (Knowing that, we also know that Jim Mathias voted for the plan. I also looked up the committee vote, and sure enough Delegate Norm “Five Dollar” Conway voted it out of committee. Why am I not shocked?)
So we fight on. In 2014 it’s time to remember this because they can’t get rid of all the conservatives. If we turn out 100 percent we still win.
Bongino newest poll champion
You know, I have so much fun with these occasional polls I do.
As I said in June when I did the last Senate one, I obviously know the polls are manipulated. But in making the assumption that those who would manipulate a poll exist in the same general proportion as supporters in the population at large, I can at least gather a trend. At least in this sort of instance it’s doubtful anyone would lie to a pollster.
These results, though, show a trend which may only be occurring within Republican circles until we know for sure if other key contenders are getting into the party. Here’s how the poll went:
- Daniel Bongino – 3,425 votes (75.66%)
- Eric Wargotz – 1,068 votes (23.59%)
- Robert Broadus – 23 votes (0.51%)
- William Capps – 5 votes (0.11%)
- Rich Douglas – 2 votes (0.04%)
- Rick Hoover – 2 votes (0.04%)
- Pat McDonough – 1 vote (0.02%)
- Corrogan Vaughn – 1 vote (0.02%)
Having said that a trend may exist, I need to caution those reading into the results that there’s little chance Dan Bongino will get 76% of the vote – I don’t care if the Constitutional Conservatives Fund of Senator Mike Lee has endorsed Dan or not, he’s not getting 75 percent of the GOP vote. In 2006 Michael Steele didn’t even get 90 percent and he was the sitting lieutenant governor, had plenty of name recognition, and basically controlled the whole Maryland GOP apparatus. I can see something in the 40′s for Bongino if all goes right but a lot depends on who else gets into the race and we won’t have a couple possible entrants with statewide name recognition make a formal announcement on their status until later this month.
But I have to admire how Dan is laying the groundwork for his campaign, including people passionate enough to drive internet poll numbers over 75 percent.
Let’s compare this to June numbers, for example. The number of votes cast was nearly the same (4,716 in June vs. 4,527 now) but the results were somewhat different:
- Eric Wargotz – 44.87%
- Daniel Bongino – 36.28%
- William Capps – 17.62%
- Corrogan Vaughn – 0.81%
- Robert Broadus – 0.23%
- Rick Hoover – 0.19%
Since I didn’t figure Capps ever really had 18 percent, the idea of a two-man race at the time had merit. But if Eric decides not to run – and remember, he had not made a final decision as of a couple weeks ago – that only leaves Pat McDonough as a possible major opponent. (I wouldn’t completely discount Rich Douglas either, given his background.)
This election is a little bit different than the last cycle, where the primary was late – so late, in fact, that federal law precludes us from having a September primary again. (Too bad, because I liked that compressed season.) Now there’s less than six months remaining until election day and truly we won’t be really paying attention until after the holidays anyway. It’s possible we could have a post-holiday bid, sort of like Bob Ehrlich’s coyness about his 2010 try for governor, but like Ehrlich it would have to be someone with some name recognition already because the filing deadline is January 11.
In any case it won’t be as easy as voting in a monoblogue poll.
U.S. Senate hopeful Rich Douglas meets the Wicomico GOP Central Committee
Normally I don’t do this.
My usual custom is to discuss the Wicomico County Republican Club meetings but not Central Committee meetings, mainly because we talk shop there and I like to keep the opposition guessing. Judging by recent election results around these parts, that strategy works pretty well.
But we had a special guest tonight as newly committed U.S. Senate candidate Rich Douglas came a-callin’. So I’ll discuss a little bit about what he said.
McDonough: Obama ‘should be impeached’
I won’t be able to make his press conference later today, but I suppose the question now is whether Pat wants to draw up the articles of impeachment next year or serve as one of the jurors. He delivered a scathing indictment of the President, part of which is detailed here:
“President Obama has created a backdoor amnesty law for 15 million illegal aliens through an unlawful policy that circumvents Congress. The consequences and impact of this reckless action on the people of the United States is enormous.”
“Mr. Obama’s administration with its characterization of citizens as terrorists, creation of enemies’ lists, and the attack against state laws with tax payers’ financed litigation is beginning to make Richard Nixon look like a Boy Scout. Lawlessness and disrespect for justice are promoting the illegal alien agenda,” said Delegate McDonough.
It’s obvious Pat is a hardliner on immigration, as evidenced by his role in the recent SB167 petition drive. But it would be the longest of shots that President Obama would actually be impeached, and it’s not even certain that he’ll be in office if Pat is indeed elected since polls show a number of Republicans neck-and-neck with him at this stage in the game. (I know, that and $5 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.) Yet Pat “maintains that if he were a member of the Senate or the House of Representatives, he would initiate the articles of impeachment process.”
Perhaps it’s a good thing he’s not there, though, since Bill Clinton became the object of sympathy during his impeachment. And just like in the case of Slick Willie, if Obama is challenged in such a manner it’s a sure bet the press will be hounding the GOP for putting partisan politics above what’s best for the country and blaming the TEA Party for the whole situation. And it’s even harder to explain to a basically spoon-fed and ignorant American public how Obama is violating the Constitution with his “disrespect for the rule of law” (as McDonough puts it) than it was to maintain that Clinton’s impeachment was not about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky but the fact he committed perjury in front of a grand jury.
McDonough: Senate decision comes after redistricting
Perhaps we were a bit too hasty in assuming Pat will run for the U.S. Senate – a lot depends on what his district looks like after Martin O’Malley and his cronies get through with it. At least that’s what he’s saying now:
As you may know, I have been testing the waters for a possible campaign against Dutch Ruppersberger for a seat in the 2nd Congressional District. The Second District is a difficult challenge and an uphill fight for a Republican. However, polling results and reaction from the voters during the last 6 months, including a powerful show of support in the annual popular July 4th Dundalk parade indicate my chances are good. Radio and television exposure over many years and support for issues such as opposition to illegal immigration have provided me with high name recognition and voter approval.
Despite these advantages, that district still remains a challenge. Of course, the re-districting and the new district will not be revealed until October. At that time, if the 2nd Congressional District transforms from ‘uphill to impossible,’ my personal decision will become clear. It will not make any sense to ask family, friends, and supporters to engage in a campaign that cannot be won. That will be a choice forced upon me by political powers over which I have no influence or control.
My decision to consider a run for Congress is based on two simple conclusions: 1) Washington is a mess. 2) I believe I can help make a difference. My top priority is to serve in Washington as a representative of the people. After much thought and consultations with others, I have decided that if the 2nd Congressional District is gerrymandered rendering it impossible to win, I will take a serious look at seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland.
There is very little difference between Dutch Ruppersberger and Ben Cardin. They are liberal political twins and Obama clones. My vision for America is completely different than their tax and spend big government agenda.
I recognize that my critics will falsely charge that this plan may be indecisive. But, as I clearly stated before, my desire is to serve the people in Washington to help clean up the mess and make a difference. It does not matter whether that service is in the Senate or the House of Representatives. These are unsettling times where the pathway is not always clear. Unfortunately, the decisions that we make are overly controlled by outside forces. During the weeks and months ahead, I will continue to conduct my vigorous exploratory campaign. It is my desire to inform my supporters and colleagues about what may occur in the future. It is still early in the campaign season and I would ask everyone to be patient and wait until it is clear regarding everyone’s intentions. Thank you for your consideration and understanding.
Fortunately for Pat, he can also maintain his radio show as long as he’s not a declared candidate, and that message resonates well beyond the confines of the Second Congressional District. It means he can wage at least a somewhat effective statewide campaign while the redistricting process is at work. (Not to mention he’s running ‘from cover’ in either case since he wouldn’t have to stand for election in his Delegate seat until 2014.)
Perhaps the better question, though, is why not make a decision now? Waiting on the results of redistricting does convey that indecisiveness Pat’s critics will feast on. But we can deduce from the message that Pat is running for some federal office. We also know he has a name recognition advantage over most other members of the House of Delegates thanks to both his radio show and work on certain key issues, and can indeed believe that there may be radical changes in the makeup of every one of Maryland’s Congressional districts because the Democrats are running the show and don’t really care about anything but maintaining political power.
So in reading this missive it appears McDonough’s preference would be to run for the Second District seat and he’s using a Senate bid as a fallback option. That may indeed be the case, but, since I like to think an election or two ahead, there’s a scenario which argues instead that he’s going statewide.
Obviously if Pat runs for and wins a U.S. Senate seat, he’s in a good position for the next six years and the country would gain a conservative voice from one of the most unlikely places. But if he takes the shot for Cardin’s Senate seat and loses, well, we all lose. But McDonough still would have built a statewide campaign organization and it could prove useful in 2014 since that election presents the opportunity of an open Governor’s seat. Remember, Pat flirted with the idea in 2010 but chose not to challenge Bob Ehrlich.
(Of course, winning the Governor’s seat after serving in Congress from the Second District worked for Bob, but that was nearly a decade ago – way past a political lifetime in this day and age.)
So McDonough remains a ‘theoretical’ candidate for the U.S. Senate; in reality just three GOP candidates have filed with the FEC (Daniel Bongino, William Capps, and Corrogan Vaughn) while Capps and Rick Hoover are on the ballot at this early stage. It is presumed from other sources that Robert Broadus and Eric Wargotz are in the race as well, although we await a formal announcement from 2010 GOP nominee Wargotz.
In the end we should have between 7 and 10 enter the U.S. Senate race on the Republican side, if past history is a guide. If McDonough does decide to jump in this fall then we’ve reached the lucky seven mark with just a few weeks to go before the filing deadline. Everyone has until January 11 to make up their minds.
Pat McDonough to jump into U.S. Senate race
I’m seeing this story on several outlets, but I haven’t read the details yet because I don’t want to prejudge my initial take on the decision.
It seems to me that Delegate Pat McDonough from Baltimore County has a history of exploring various races and then getting out. In 2010 he thought about running for governor on the Republican side and earlier this year was considering a challenge to Second District Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger. He’s not quite up to the blinding pace of changing races set by Carmen Amedori, but he’s getting close. And the questions become: how well is he known outside his Baltimore base? Would his issue stance resonate with Republican voters in a statewide race?
In Pat’s favor, he does have the advantage of an occasional bully pulpit when he hosts his weekend radio show or fills in for Baltimore radio host Tom Marr, but we see how well radio hosting worked for Bob Ehrlich. Certainly his conservative viewpoint on immigration and similar topics would play well with a following that helped place the Maryland DREAM Act on the ballot for the November, 2012 election, though.
And out of the 141 Delegates in the General Assembly last term, Pat ranked 11th in my monoblogue Accountability Project – so he’s more conservative than most in the body, but not as strident as, say, an Andy Harris (who was among the top Senators.)
But there’s surely some disappointed Second District Republicans who thought they had a formidable candidate in McDonough – he even went so far as to hold a fundraiser with Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell. Its purpose: to “dump Dutch Ruppersberger & his Nancy Pelosi voting record.” Meanwhile, the field for U.S. Senate already had a number of candidates, with the leaders among the group being 2010 GOP nominee Eric Wargotz and Dan Bongino, who has the backing of 2010 gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy and his wing of the Republican Party. From what I understand, the war of words has already begun between McDonough’s allies and Dan Bongino, portending a nasty primary fight Republicans don’t need (think of the 2008 First District tussle between Andy Harris, E. J. Pipkin, and Wayne Gilchrest for an example.)
Pat McDonough will do what he wants to do, but perhaps this move wasn’t the best for the Maryland GOP. Only time will tell.
Odds and ends number 31
Once again I have a lot of little items that deserve a little bit of comment, so here goes.
Delegate Pat McDonough is at it again. The 2012 Congressional candidate has prefiled a bill called the Toll Fairness Act. It has three goals:
- Declare a moratorium on all toll increases.
- Mandate a General Assembly vote and Governor’s signature on all toll increases, for accountability.
- Prohibit transfers to non-transportation accounts. Delegate McDonough claims almost $800 million has been “stolen” from transportation accounts over the last eight years.
While it’s doubtful such a bill will muster the votes to get out of the Democratic-controlled committee it will be assigned to, the fact that we have this measure prefiled shows that people can be good and angry about the situation. We will see on July 14, when a hearing on the toll increases will be held in Ocean City.
Speaking of the peoples’ voice, the petition drive to overturn SB167 through referendum may well be successful. But CASA de Maryland was granted a request to make copies of the petitions; a move Delegate Michael Smigiel of the Upper Shore found shocking.
Delegate Smigiel made a point which I wanted to amplify. It’s bad enough that a group who’s dead-set against the referendum will be allowed to take possession of these petitions, if only for a brief time. Luckily the potential for mischief is lessened since that cat was let out of the bag.
But I think back to the controversy over Proposition 8 in California (to overturn same-sex marriage) and what happened to those who contributed to that effort financially – a number of them were harassed by pro-gay marriage supporters, with threats to both boycott their businesses and harm them physically. Could pro-illegal groups and supporters use the petition information to do the same in Maryland? They’re playing for keeps; unfortunately for them a goodly number of people about these parts are armed and don’t much like harassment. Hopefully the folks at the ACLU and CASA de Maryland will keep this in mind.
Meanwhile, those who support the petition and wish to make sure the count is done fairly aren’t allowed into the process. A Board of Elections worth its salt would tell the state to go pound sand on that (since it’s simply a policy memorandum and not law.)
And that’s not all from the state of Maryland. Richard Falknor at Blue Ridge Forum discusses the new “green” graduation requirement. There’s no time for teaching critical thinking or even the three R’s, but they have time to push that “smart growth” bullshit on our kids? Since the requirement appears to be only in public schools (for now) I guess I don’t have to deprogram my girlfriend’s daughter – yet – since she attends a private school.
I also learned a new word regarding this new environmentalism. In a press release from the Competitive Enterprise Institute announcing the formation of the Resourceful Earth website, a quote from Myron Ebell, the Director of CEI’s Center for Energy and Environment, caught my eye. Said Ebell, “unfortunately, many major corporations are being greenmailed into supporting these assaults on jobs and prosperity.” ‘Greenmailed,’ indeed. Do you think oil companies really want to spend millions to deal with environmental groups advocating for polar bears or caribou rather than job creation and maintaining our lifestyle? They probably add a nickel per gallon to the price.
Still, pump prices have been on the decline of late. That fact makes the timing of the decision to draw 30 million barrels down from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve very curious. Granted, there will still be nearly 700 million barrels remaining in our coffers, but there was no emergency situation to merit the release. Strife in Libya is no worse than unrest in Nigeria, another major oil-producing nation, back in 2009.
Reaction has been severe from some quarters, and seems to be the correct perception of the situation. Americans for Limited Government, for example, claims savings will be meager and short-lived:
If one is generous and assumes yesterday’s $4 drop was solely because of Obama and International Energy Agency, at best it will save consumers $.10 a gallon for gasoline. That works out to about $1.50 per fill up, or $6 for the month the additional gasoline is available.
In other words, Obama has jeopardized national security by drawing down the strategic reserves to, at best, save consumers about $1.50 per fill up when this ‘flood’ of new gasoline hits the market. To call this irresponsible would be an understatement.
And the real experts at the American Petroleum Institute were equally underwhelmed:
The release makes little sense for American markets. Crude and gasoline inventories are above average, and crude and gasoline prices have been trending down for weeks, despite the loss of Libyan oil, which markets have already adjusted to. The SPR was intended to be used for supply emergencies. There is no supply emergency. We don’t know what impacts this might have on markets long term. But we could and should be taking steps that would increase our own production by 2 million barrels a day or more for decades, which is possible if the government would grant much greater access to America’s ample oil and natural gas reserves. This would do vastly more to help consumers, increase energy security, create jobs and deliver more revenue to our government. It’s action that would truly strengthen our energy future, not a temporary gesture that has no lasting benefits.
30 million barrels is about what our nation consumes in a day-and-a-half. 60 million barrels (the total IEA release) is well under what the world consumes in a day.
Here’s the problem I see with this release. We have a President who doesn’t mind $4 per gallon gasoline, as long as the increase is relatively steady. He also has backtracked from allowing additional oil exploration thanks to a rare but ill-timed drilling accident in the Gulf of Mexico.
If you assume the oil which was placed in the SPR was purchased at a relatively low market price, well, we have to make that up sometime. And if you believe their line about supplies tightening up thanks to a civil war in Libya it would be my guess that oil will be more expensive. We just added 60 million barrels to future worldwide demand, and that will likely drive prices up a little bit.
In short, this is a shell game (no pun intended) to make people believe we’re doing something about a problem better solved with more oil extraction. For example, approving one pipeline would eventually make up for about half of what the world normally gets from Libya on a daily basis. Needless to say, I don’t buy the ‘peak oil’ theory. (Thanks to Jane Van Ryan of API for the pipeline info.)
And one final item. Over the last few weeks I had a PSA for the Move America Forward Troopathon which was broadcast over the internet last Thursday. They now have their tally in and were pleased to report they raised $507,843 from their efforts – exceeding their $500,000 goal.
It wasn’t as much as previous Troopathons raised, but then again we have fewer troops in that theater. Considering that being pro-military isn’t as much in vogue as it used to be I think that total is pretty good and reflects a nation that remains in a giving mood for our men in uniform.
Wow, that did a nice job of cleaning out my e-mail box. Look for more interesting stuff to come.
In-state tuition for illegals to become law – or will it?
On Thursday, Governor Martin O’Malley signed SB167 into law. Of course, that bill may be sent to referendum if enough signatures are applied to a petition seeking the vote of the people, and Delegate Neil Parrott is leading that effort.
Here’s what he had to say about the signing.
(On Thursday) Governor O’Malley signed into law SB 167, known as the Maryland Dream Act, that will provide in-state tuition benefits to illegal aliens.
MDPetitions.com, under the leadership of Delegates Neil Parrott and Pat McDonough, has launched a petition drive to bring the bill to referendum in the November 2012 elections.
Delegate Parrott, Chairman, indicated that “It’s no surprise that Gov. O’Malley signed this legislation. The people of Maryland anticipated this and that is why people across the state are going to www.mdpetitions.com to sign the petition so we can bring this bill to referendum.”
Delegate Pat McDonough, Honorary Chairperson of the Petition Drive stated, “Taxpayers are wasting millions educating someone who cannot and will not be hired legally. Politicians like Governor O’Malley have transformed Maryland into a ‘sanctuary state’ by becoming a Disneyland for illegal immigrants, attracting hundreds of thousands of them, and costing taxpayers about 2 billion dollars. This law will only make things worse.”
Delegate Parrott noted that “this bill barely passed during the night on the last day of the session despite Bi-partisan opposition to the bill. Given the choice, I believe Marylanders will reject this legislation outright.”
The outpouring of support for our petition drive should serve as notice to Governor O’Malley and the legislators in Annapolis that Marylanders are fed up with the rampant abuse of our hard earned tax dollars.
Certainly I’m as fed up with “rampant abuse of our hard earned tax dollars” and I was happy to place my John Hancock on the petition. And I also think Alex Mooney was right when he commented at the state GOP convention that “we need to use that petition to referendum more often.” Just wait until the Special Session, and the tax increases we’re sure to see.
Of course, much of that momentum will depend on how this particular petition drive goes – if it’s a success, then people will be emboldened to use the referendum route to overrule O’Malley and the Democrats in the General Assembly more often. But the last attempt to petition a bad bill into referendum (the speed camera law) failed when the organizers came up short at the 1/3 barrier in May 2009.
Obviously there will be a lot on the ballot next November, as the general election in Maryland only comes once every two years and there’s a long list of items which the General Assembly sends to the voters for final ratification. Three items were placed before voters in 2010, two in 2008, and four in 2006.
But according to this piece by Ann Marimow in the Washington Post, the last petition drive to succeed in making it to the ballot came two decades ago, and it lost at the polls. Insofar as this drive is concerned, the effect on the 2012 election will be interesting should it succeed - with Barack Obama a prohibitive favorite in the state, will downballot turnout determine the fate of the referendum? Also, since the ballot question could pit one minority against another, how will that shake out?
Perhaps one reason these drives tend to fizzle out is the lengthy timeframe between the referendum and the election. If the petition effort succeeds we’ll have 17 months before voters will decide. In many cases where the ballot question is determined by the General Assembly this doesn’t seem to matter, as most Constitutional amendments placed before voters pass handily. But this will be different and there’s a potential of legal wrangling before the voters get to decide whether to rescind the law.
Passing the bill in its fourth try (2007, 2008, and 2009 – notice they didn’t go for this in the election year of 2010 knowing it would be a hot-button issue) was ill-advised, so Maryland voters should get a crack at this. Some may argue that the referendum shouldn’t go through because it would bring more Latinos to the polls and they’ll both vote against the referendum and punish Republican candidates. But I believe this will help GOP turnout in a state that’s generally written off by the national GOP and maybe give the Republican nominee an outside chance of winning.
So if you get the chance, sign the petition. Let’s show the General Assembly and Martin O’Malley who’s in control of this state.
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