Six Senate candidates, one forum
A couple weeks back there was a candidates’ forum conducted by the Cecil County Patriots in conjunction with Americans for Prosperity. Six of the ten GOP hopefuls were present (in reverse alphabetical order, just to be different): Corrogan Vaughn, David Jones, Rick Hoover, Richard Douglas, Robert Broadus, and Daniel Bongino. William Capps was also slated to appear, but had to cancel at the last minute.
The forum was recorded in two parts, and the videos run just about two hours total. In order from left to right, the candidates are Bongino, Hoover, Vaughn, Broadus, Jones, and Douglas.
I’m going to allow you to make up your own mind on who won; some comported themselves well and made a solid presentation and others seemed a little ill at ease. At this time I like three candidates better than the others, but I would like to study a little bit more before I make a formal endorsement down the road.
Thanks to Jacklyn Gregory for putting the videos together and uploading them. The Cecil County Patriots and AFP Maryland have done a service to Republican voters. Just for fun I did a quick search for a similar event on the Democratic side, but it was no surprise I found nothing. It’s doubtful Ben Cardin would stoop so low as to honor his opponents with his consent to debate – a common trait I’ve found among incumbent Democrats.
The sprint to the finish
Standing as we are eight weeks out from the primary, if you were to consider the primary campaign calendar analogous to the general election calendar, we are at Labor Day. In the fall campaign, Labor Day is considered the point where people begin to pay attention to the election and start to make their final decision.
Because this is a Presidential election year, Republicans and Democrats in most of Maryland will only have a few choices to make when primary voting arrives in late March. (Some will also have local races to consider.) In seven out of eight districts for both parties voters will have a choice for Congress, while all Maryland voters who participate in the primary will select their party’s standardbearer for the U.S. Senate seat. Only Republicans will have a choice for President as no one stepped forth to challenge Barack Obama on the primary ballot. There is also only one Republican running in the First Congressional District – incumbent Andy Harris – while Dutch Ruppersberger enjoys a similar free ride in his Second District Democratic primary. Convention delegates are also at stake for both parties in each Congressional district.
Now that the stage is set, it’s very likely that only two or three GOP presidential candidates will be left standing by the time the race reaches Maryland on April 3. The good news is that Maryland and the District of Columbia may be pretty much the only game in town that day. Wisconsin voters will be much more mindful of the effort to recall Governor Scott Walker and, depending on whether the Texas legislative districts go to court or not, their scheduled April 3 primary is likely to be pushed back.
1,000 days…and counting
There are certain things Congress is supposed to do, and creating a budget is one of them. But on the very day President Obama delivered the State of the Union address, we “celebrated” an ominous milestone:
It didn’t take the House long to do its job, but the title of the “do-nothing” Congress belongs to the Senate. While gridlock can be a good thing in a lot of instances, not performing their Constitutional duty is inexcusable.
The House did their job, so tell the Senate to do theirs. We’re always being asked to compromise so now it’s their turn.
And if they don’t, perhaps it’s time to elect some new Senators who would work more closely with a Republican house. A few good candidates come to mind, none of them named Ben Cardin.
Endorsements and other fun stuff in the Maryland U.S. Senate race
It seems to me that, much as I could probably like the other eight gentlemen seeking the Republican nod to charge up the hill that is Senator Ben Cardin, I only get to hear a lot from two of the ten contenders. And the dynamic between their campaigns is generally interesting, although I have to concede the advantage in communication goes to Dan Bongino over fellow candidate Rich Douglas. This list is culled just from items this week, which are coming at me in rapid-fire fashion.
Obama kills Keystone jobs, reaction is as expected
Yesterday it was announced that the Keystone XL project, an oil pipeline which would have connected the oil sands of Alberta to refineries that could handle the product here in the United States, was shelved again by President Obama. This despite his quest to find “shovel-ready” projects and address the nation’s high unemployment rate.
Reactions? Well, pretty much what I expected. Needless to say, Mark Green at Energy Tomorrow was critical of the decision, stating President Obama wasn’t after jobs but “settled on a different calculus – re-election politics.” The American Petroleum Institute writer also pointed out the Keystone project had been under review for three years, plenty of time to gauge environmental impact. This is particularly true when one considers the Keystone XL pipeline could have run close by the existing Keystone pipeline already in use.
Two fewer for Senate
For William Capps, it was an uphill battle and one he decided to no longer keep fighting. Over the weekend he withdrew from the race for Maryland’s U.S. Senate seat and endorsed Dan Bongino.
But there’s something he alluded to in his statement that I haven’t received official word on. Capps notes that Pat McDonough has already entered the Senate race, but as for now he’s still on the fence between running for the U.S. Senate and running for Congress. Earlier this summer he had announced he was considering a Senate run based on how redistricting went, but nothing is official yet. If I were a betting man, though, I think Capps is correct and McDonough will take his statewide shot.
Another name candidate who hadn’t finalized his plans is Eric Wargotz, the 2010 GOP nominee. Back in September he put out a fundraising appeal which was to help him make a decision, and I had it on pretty good authority that choice would be made around the first of November.
Well, consider Eric a couple days late but this literally just came as I was writing the post:
As many of you know, our team has been carefully considering a run for US Senate in 2012. After extensive research, I was humbled to learn that I remain popular among Republican primary voters and remain well positioned to win the Republican nomination for US Senate in Maryland once again.
Unfortunately, support for the incumbent Senator (and the President) remains strong in Maryland, despite the national political environment. In this political reality, we find ourselves in the position of being able to win the Republican nomination but falling short in the general election.
Therefore, regrettably, I have decided to forgo entering the 2012 US Senate race.
My family and I are grateful for your continued support and well-wishes over the past several years in this endeavor. I was honored to serve as your 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nominee and I will continue to work diligently to bring Maryland closer to a true, two-party state.
May God Bless you, the State of Maryland and our great Country.
So that’s the news, hot off the press. We’ll see now what move McDonough makes.
Life’s been good: Bongino gets second Congressional endorsement
Coming from a guy who no one thought stood a chance in the 2010 election, perhaps it’s a sign of hope for U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino. Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh, who won his election by 291 votes out of over 200,000 cast and knocked out a heavily favored three-term Democratic incumbent, has given his endorsement to the upstart first-time Republican hopeful. Walsh has developed a reputation as a fiscal bulldog in his brief tenure, which may come to an end next year as Illinois Democrats have eliminated his seat and forced him to go against another Illinois Congressman, Randy Hultgren.
Walsh likes the Marylander’s thoughts on spending and the role of government:
“Career politicians and Washington insiders have spent away a generation of American prosperity and failed to lead,” said Congressman Joe Walsh. “Dan’s personal integrity and bold leadership from the Secret Service is desperately needed within the U.S. Senate.”
“Our nation is approaching a fiscal precipice; we simply cannot sustain our financial future unless we have proven leaders like Dan to fight for the interests of hard-working Americans who have been shut out of the political process. The raw passion Dan has for his family and country is refreshing. I am proud to stand by his side in his bid to replace the failed status quo.”
But the question becomes one of how important such an endorsement is in the grand scheme of things. Aside from being the namesake of a popular classic rocker and a media darling on the conservative talk shows, how much will this influence the decision of an average Maryland Republican? Not many but political junkies have heard of Utah Senator Mike Lee, who also endorsed Dan a couple weeks ago.
Still, the endorsement allows Dan to stay in the news cycle for free, which is important at this stage. It also makes his resume a little bit better for voters to consider.
Bongino newest poll champion
You know, I have so much fun with these occasional polls I do.
As I said in June when I did the last Senate one, I obviously know the polls are manipulated. But in making the assumption that those who would manipulate a poll exist in the same general proportion as supporters in the population at large, I can at least gather a trend. At least in this sort of instance it’s doubtful anyone would lie to a pollster.
These results, though, show a trend which may only be occurring within Republican circles until we know for sure if other key contenders are getting into the party. Here’s how the poll went:
- Daniel Bongino – 3,425 votes (75.66%)
- Eric Wargotz – 1,068 votes (23.59%)
- Robert Broadus – 23 votes (0.51%)
- William Capps – 5 votes (0.11%)
- Rich Douglas – 2 votes (0.04%)
- Rick Hoover – 2 votes (0.04%)
- Pat McDonough – 1 vote (0.02%)
- Corrogan Vaughn – 1 vote (0.02%)
Having said that a trend may exist, I need to caution those reading into the results that there’s little chance Dan Bongino will get 76% of the vote – I don’t care if the Constitutional Conservatives Fund of Senator Mike Lee has endorsed Dan or not, he’s not getting 75 percent of the GOP vote. In 2006 Michael Steele didn’t even get 90 percent and he was the sitting lieutenant governor, had plenty of name recognition, and basically controlled the whole Maryland GOP apparatus. I can see something in the 40′s for Bongino if all goes right but a lot depends on who else gets into the race and we won’t have a couple possible entrants with statewide name recognition make a formal announcement on their status until later this month.
But I have to admire how Dan is laying the groundwork for his campaign, including people passionate enough to drive internet poll numbers over 75 percent.
Let’s compare this to June numbers, for example. The number of votes cast was nearly the same (4,716 in June vs. 4,527 now) but the results were somewhat different:
- Eric Wargotz – 44.87%
- Daniel Bongino – 36.28%
- William Capps – 17.62%
- Corrogan Vaughn – 0.81%
- Robert Broadus – 0.23%
- Rick Hoover – 0.19%
Since I didn’t figure Capps ever really had 18 percent, the idea of a two-man race at the time had merit. But if Eric decides not to run – and remember, he had not made a final decision as of a couple weeks ago – that only leaves Pat McDonough as a possible major opponent. (I wouldn’t completely discount Rich Douglas either, given his background.)
This election is a little bit different than the last cycle, where the primary was late – so late, in fact, that federal law precludes us from having a September primary again. (Too bad, because I liked that compressed season.) Now there’s less than six months remaining until election day and truly we won’t be really paying attention until after the holidays anyway. It’s possible we could have a post-holiday bid, sort of like Bob Ehrlich’s coyness about his 2010 try for governor, but like Ehrlich it would have to be someone with some name recognition already because the filing deadline is January 11.
In any case it won’t be as easy as voting in a monoblogue poll.
U.S. Senate hopeful Rich Douglas meets the Wicomico GOP Central Committee
Normally I don’t do this.
My usual custom is to discuss the Wicomico County Republican Club meetings but not Central Committee meetings, mainly because we talk shop there and I like to keep the opposition guessing. Judging by recent election results around these parts, that strategy works pretty well.
But we had a special guest tonight as newly committed U.S. Senate candidate Rich Douglas came a-callin’. So I’ll discuss a little bit about what he said.
Odds and ends number 34
Believe it or not, I have been besieged with another plethora of items which deserve perhaps an paragraph or three of comment on my part. So let me get crackin’ on them.
Since I’ve had the opportunity to speak with him in person, I would suggest that those of you who are political activists consider attending David Craig’s campaign school. It will make a stop here on the Lower Eastern Shore at the Comfort Inn in Cambridge this Saturday (October 1st) from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. It’s absolutely free and includes lunch too. You can sign up for the event here.
You know, I’d be curious to know if any liberals show up because it’s a freebie. But if it’s conducted like the “Bloggers and Burgers” confab you should leave the Craig campaign school neither hungry nor uninformed.
Speaking of liberals and freebies, there’s 116 people in Salisbury who really must suffer from terminal ignorance. I got this in my e-mail the other day, simply because September 30 is coming:
Here’s something you don’t have in common with 116 other supporters of this movement who tell us they live in Salisbury, MD.
That many of your neighbors have decided to own a piece of this campaign by making a donation of whatever they could afford. For some, that meant just $5. For others, it meant $100 or more. But each had their own personal reason for giving.
Our records show that you aren’t one of the 116 people where you’re from who have stepped up for 2012. Now’s your chance to change that.
Since the e-mail came from Jim Messina of the Obama 2012 campaign, don’t hold your breath waiting for my gift. I might give a little to Herman Cain, though.
It makes me curious, though – how many of my readers have donated to a Presidential campaign? I haven’t done so yet this cycle, but I did donate to Rep. Duncan Hunter’s ill-fated bid last time. He was my first.
Fight the power
It’s late notice to be sure – and that was probably intentional – but Senator Ben Cardin is holding a Medicare and Social Security Forum TONIGHT (Thursday) at 7 p.m. in the Worcester Room of Salisbury University’s Commons.
The reason I say this omission was intentional is that the TEA Party wasn’t exactly welcomed at the last event, nor is this meeting on Ben’s public schedule insofar as I can tell. But in order to get a full hearing and not just something from a relatively pre-selected crowd, it might be a good idea for the younger generation to attend as well – after all, we’re paying for seniors’ health care and Social Security.
While the protest outside may or may not occur, getting the right people inside may open a few eyes.
McDonough: Senate decision comes after redistricting
Perhaps we were a bit too hasty in assuming Pat will run for the U.S. Senate – a lot depends on what his district looks like after Martin O’Malley and his cronies get through with it. At least that’s what he’s saying now:
As you may know, I have been testing the waters for a possible campaign against Dutch Ruppersberger for a seat in the 2nd Congressional District. The Second District is a difficult challenge and an uphill fight for a Republican. However, polling results and reaction from the voters during the last 6 months, including a powerful show of support in the annual popular July 4th Dundalk parade indicate my chances are good. Radio and television exposure over many years and support for issues such as opposition to illegal immigration have provided me with high name recognition and voter approval.
Despite these advantages, that district still remains a challenge. Of course, the re-districting and the new district will not be revealed until October. At that time, if the 2nd Congressional District transforms from ‘uphill to impossible,’ my personal decision will become clear. It will not make any sense to ask family, friends, and supporters to engage in a campaign that cannot be won. That will be a choice forced upon me by political powers over which I have no influence or control.
My decision to consider a run for Congress is based on two simple conclusions: 1) Washington is a mess. 2) I believe I can help make a difference. My top priority is to serve in Washington as a representative of the people. After much thought and consultations with others, I have decided that if the 2nd Congressional District is gerrymandered rendering it impossible to win, I will take a serious look at seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland.
There is very little difference between Dutch Ruppersberger and Ben Cardin. They are liberal political twins and Obama clones. My vision for America is completely different than their tax and spend big government agenda.
I recognize that my critics will falsely charge that this plan may be indecisive. But, as I clearly stated before, my desire is to serve the people in Washington to help clean up the mess and make a difference. It does not matter whether that service is in the Senate or the House of Representatives. These are unsettling times where the pathway is not always clear. Unfortunately, the decisions that we make are overly controlled by outside forces. During the weeks and months ahead, I will continue to conduct my vigorous exploratory campaign. It is my desire to inform my supporters and colleagues about what may occur in the future. It is still early in the campaign season and I would ask everyone to be patient and wait until it is clear regarding everyone’s intentions. Thank you for your consideration and understanding.
Fortunately for Pat, he can also maintain his radio show as long as he’s not a declared candidate, and that message resonates well beyond the confines of the Second Congressional District. It means he can wage at least a somewhat effective statewide campaign while the redistricting process is at work. (Not to mention he’s running ‘from cover’ in either case since he wouldn’t have to stand for election in his Delegate seat until 2014.)
Perhaps the better question, though, is why not make a decision now? Waiting on the results of redistricting does convey that indecisiveness Pat’s critics will feast on. But we can deduce from the message that Pat is running for some federal office. We also know he has a name recognition advantage over most other members of the House of Delegates thanks to both his radio show and work on certain key issues, and can indeed believe that there may be radical changes in the makeup of every one of Maryland’s Congressional districts because the Democrats are running the show and don’t really care about anything but maintaining political power.
So in reading this missive it appears McDonough’s preference would be to run for the Second District seat and he’s using a Senate bid as a fallback option. That may indeed be the case, but, since I like to think an election or two ahead, there’s a scenario which argues instead that he’s going statewide.
Obviously if Pat runs for and wins a U.S. Senate seat, he’s in a good position for the next six years and the country would gain a conservative voice from one of the most unlikely places. But if he takes the shot for Cardin’s Senate seat and loses, well, we all lose. But McDonough still would have built a statewide campaign organization and it could prove useful in 2014 since that election presents the opportunity of an open Governor’s seat. Remember, Pat flirted with the idea in 2010 but chose not to challenge Bob Ehrlich.
(Of course, winning the Governor’s seat after serving in Congress from the Second District worked for Bob, but that was nearly a decade ago – way past a political lifetime in this day and age.)
So McDonough remains a ‘theoretical’ candidate for the U.S. Senate; in reality just three GOP candidates have filed with the FEC (Daniel Bongino, William Capps, and Corrogan Vaughn) while Capps and Rick Hoover are on the ballot at this early stage. It is presumed from other sources that Robert Broadus and Eric Wargotz are in the race as well, although we await a formal announcement from 2010 GOP nominee Wargotz.
In the end we should have between 7 and 10 enter the U.S. Senate race on the Republican side, if past history is a guide. If McDonough does decide to jump in this fall then we’ve reached the lucky seven mark with just a few weeks to go before the filing deadline. Everyone has until January 11 to make up their minds.
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