If Ravens fans weren’t already bummed…
They may have to wait for quite a while to see their heroes take on the Steelers, or any other team for that matter.
With a player lockout looming in March, the 2011 season may be in doubt and players are being told to be prepared for a long work stoppage – save their money.
Interestingly enough, players are appealing to the fans to put pressure on the owners to negotiate but there’s a class envy element present in this dispute which you normally don’t see in a typical strike - in this instance you have millionaires taking on billionaires (even rookies who play a full season are assured a minimum salary of $325,000, with longtime veterans grossing at least $860,000 a year.) Nor do they seem to have a receptive audience in Washington.
Yes, it can be argued that the career span of an NFL player is relatively short, as most players wash out of the league in five years or less. One key aspect of the dispute is the owners’ desire to extend the regular season to 18 games by cutting the final two exhibition games – players contend they’ll run an even larger risk of serious injuries by extending the season. (This doesn’t count the numerous minor injuries they suffer during a season, like twisting their ankles or pulling muscles.) NFL players tend to have a shorter life expectancy than society at-large because of the abuse their bodies take.
But there is a conscious choice being made by these men, who generally have the opportunity to have their college education paid for thanks to their athletic ability. Many NFL alumni have taken advantage of their education and name recognition to build successful second careers after their playing days, but others cannot for various reasons.
As far as I’m concerned, the dispute can push the season back to open around the first of November, just in time for the conclusion of the World Series. My suspicion is that we’ll see the advent of the 18-game season by 2014 after the current four-year scheduling cycle ends and in return the players will keep the same percentage of revenue they currently receive. Maybe the post-career health insurance package will be sweetened as well.
It’s not unprecedented for an entire season to be wiped out, as the NHL lost the 2004-05 season to a labor dispute. Major League Baseball has lost portions of several seasons due to player strikes, with the 1994 season ending early and no champion crowned. The NFL lost a large portion of the 1982 season due to a strike and used ‘scab’ players for a few weeks during the 1987 season.
So Baltimore fans, you can just hope the Orioles have a good season because you may not have the Ravens to talk about this fall.
NFL playoff picture week 17
It all comes down to this. This week’s NFL schedule features 16 games but only six have any bearing on the playoff picture. With their flexible scheduling, the league placed most of these games in a time slot guaranteed to encourage channel-flipping between games – the 4:15 time slot has four huge games that impact the playoff picture, not to mention Sunday’s capper. But we’ll begin with tonight’s flirtation with history.
New England (15-0) at New York Giants (10-5), 8:15 p.m. (NBC, CBS, NFL Network)
The game’s already making history because it will be simulcast on three networks. Most likely it will be the highest-rated regular season game in NFL history. As far as playoff position, neither team can improve its standing with a win so the importance factor comes in with the Patriots’ bid for perfection.
Moving to Sunday’s early game…
New Orleans (7-8) at Chicago (6-9), 1 p.m. (FOX locally)
Like dominoes, the NFC wild card contenders play in sequence. New Orleans plays the Bears in a 2006 NFC Championship rematch – unfortunately the bloom is off the rose for this one as neither team is likely to claim a playoff spot. The Saints also lose one key weapon in the contest as running back Reggie Bush is out. For the Saints to sneak in as an 8-8 wild card, they need to beat Chicago and hope both Washington and Minnesota lose later games. Then they’ll win the tiebreaker based on a 7-5 conference record (vs. 6-6 for both the Redskins and Vikings.)
Next in sequence the 4:15 NFC game we won’t see…
Minnesota (8-7) at Denver (6-9), 4:15 p.m. (FOX)
After losing to Washington last Sunday night, the Vikings were kicked out of the playoff driver’s seat and now face a team who also looked bad in primetime this past week. But a win over Jay Cutler and company at least gives the Vikings a glimmer of hope by eliminating New Orleans. Minnesota does need a hand in the other key late NFC game though…
Dallas (13-2) at Washington (8-7), 4:15 p.m. (FOX locally)
From all indications the Redskins get a break because Dallas will rely heavily on its reserves to get them through this game. Since the Cowboys have some banged-up players (including Terrell Owens and Tony Romo) they’ll take advantage of the extra week off and lack of travel they’ll get as the highest seed to rest key personnel. On the other hand, the Redskins know the score and they’ll go all-out to win this one over their hated arch-rival. A win by Washington and they’ll earn a trip to Seattle to begin the playoffs regardless of what Minnesota does at Denver (because of their recent Sunday night win in the Metrodome over the Vikings.)
Now turning to the AFC…
Pittsburgh (10-5) at Baltimore (4-11), 4:15 p.m. (CBS locally)
I seem to recall these two teams met about this time last season and Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers spent a lot of the game on his back. I’m not sure the Ravens’ defense will make that same statement this time around as the tables are turned and Pittsburgh is heading into the playoffs while the Ravens stagger toward season’s end. If the Steelers win as expected, they still need a equally bad Oakland team to knock off San Diego to secure the #3 seed and avoid a rematch with Jacksonville in the first round.
San Diego (10-5) at Oakland (4-11), 4:15 p.m. (CBS)
After the 49-11 tattooing Oakland received in Jacksonville last week, expect to see the Chargers’ starters run up a nice first half lead and sit most of the second half. A win by San Diego means they get either Tennessee or Cleveland in their house to open their playoff run as the #3 seed and they avoid playing New England until the AFC title game. They would have a 9-3 conference record against Pittsburgh’s 8-4 mark to win the tiebreaker.
Lastly, we have what’s in essence the first playoff game…
Tennessee (9-6) at Indianapolis (13-2), 8:15 p.m. (NBC)
This is do-or-die for Tennessee. A scheduling quirk by the NFL means that, even though Tennessee and Cleveland have identical records going into Week 17, Cleveland’s game with San Francisco is meaningless to the playoff picture while the Titans have everything at stake. If they win, they gain the playoff berth by being better against common opponents than Cleveland was (Tennessee finished 4-1 against Houston, Cincinnati, Oakland, and the New York Jets while Cleveland was 3-2 against those four teams.) If the Titans lose, Cleveland takes the tiebreaker based on conference record (7-5 vs. Tennessee’s 6-6.) Like Washington, Tennessee gets some advantage in playing against the Colts’ reserves as Indianapolis is locked into their playoff position. So Browns fans need to hope Peyton Manning has a big quarter or so before turning the game over to backup Jim Sorgi.
Just for fun, here’s my prediction of the matchups we’ll see on the first weekend of the New Year as the playoffs begin.
AFC:
#6 Tennessee (10-6) at #3 San Diego (11-5), #5 Jacksonville (12-4) at #4 Pittsburgh (11-5)
NFC:
#6 Washington (9-7) at #3 Seattle (11-5), #5 New York Giants (11-5) at #4 Tampa Bay (10-6)
You can guess what the key prediction for the weekend is if you read the projected playoff matchups closely.
NFL playoff picture week 16
Taking a few days off from politics, since not much political goes on at the holiday. Besides, the NFL regular season is coming to a close and there’s two big questions yet to be answered. One is will the Patriots match the 1972 Miami Dolphins with a perfect season, and the other is will the Detroit Lions be the first team to lose 10 games after opening the season 6-2? Look for more of these signs if you’re unfortunate enough to be subjected to the Kansas City at Detroit game on your TV.
There are a number of relevant games this weekend though, with one played Thursday night as Pittsburgh beat up on St. Louis. That puts the pressure on Cleveland as you’ll see below – but first we’ll start with tonight’s game.
Dallas (12-2) at Carolina (6-8), 8:15 p.m. (NFL Network)
What’s at stake: A Dallas win puts them one step closer to home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, which certainly beats a trip to frigid Green Bay in mid-January. Carolina needs to win its last two games and have Minnesota swoon to have any playoff hope, but realistically they’re playing for pride at this point.
Key questions: Will Tony Romo’s thumb be an issue as it was last week against Philadelphia? Speaking of quarterbacks, has Carolina had too good of a season to have a high enough draft pick to get a good one who’s not injury-prone?
Also, who’s the genius who allowed the NFL Network to have two Dallas games this season along with quite possibly New England’s capper on a 16-0 season next week? Maybe the better question is why Comcast made it a pay service after it wasn’t last year?
Anyway, continuing in the NFC…
Green Bay (12-2) at Chicago (5-9), Sunday 1 p.m. (FOX)
What’s at stake: The Packers will know if they’re in a must-win situation to have a shot at home field through the NFC playoffs by the time they take the field in Chicago. Should Carolina upset Dallas, Green Bay can win their last two and become the #1 seed. Meanwhile, Chicago is only playing to sweep Green Bay this season since they were bounced out of the playoff picture against Minnesota Monday night.
Key questions: Can the Packers avoid injuries in what should be a bruising, nasty NFC North contest? And can they contain Bears return specialist Devin Hester?
Now for the game we’ll have locally on channel 21…
New York Giants (9-5) at Buffalo (7-7), 1 p.m. (FOX)
What’s at stake: Eli Manning and crew can earn themselves a playoff trip to either Tampa Bay or Seattle with a win at snowy, sloppy Buffalo. After last week’s game in Cleveland that eliminated them from playoff contention, the Bills have probably had enough of snow but play they must in their 2007 season home finale.
Key questions: Will Manning and the Giants continue their trend of playing well on the road? They’re just 3-4 at the Meadowlands but 6-1 in away games, so perhaps they won’t mind being a wild card. For Buffalo, will a December home game become a rarity? There’s been efforts made to schedule one of Buffalo’s home games in Toronto next season and beyond. They would likely be late-season contests since Toronto’s Canadian Football League season generally ends in mid-November.
I was surprised Fox didn’t give us this game…
Philadelphia (6-8) at New Orleans (7-7), 1 p.m. (FOX)
What’s at stake: Because of Minnesota’s Monday night win, the Eagles are out of the playoff picture despite knocking off Dallas on Sunday. But New Orleans still has a legitimate chance at the last wild card since two of their closest foes play each other on Sunday night. So a win for the Saints keeps them in the mix.
Key questions: Can the Eagles avenge a tough playoff loss last year in the Superdome, or will the Saints prevail again? Which Saints team will show up anyway? They’ve been up and down all season and need some momentum to have a shot. What’s sort of funny to me is that the people who came up with the NFL schedule this season probably thought they’d made such a great move having New Orleans finish with their two 2006 playoff foes, Philadelphia and Chicago. Guess which two participants from last year’s NFC playoffs are already eliminated?
Turning to the early AFC games…
Cleveland (9-5) at Cincinnati (5-9), 1 p.m. (CBS)
What’s at stake: A win by Cleveland and they’re in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Cincinnati would love to derail their in-state rivals for at least a week. Cleveland also has an outside chance at the AFC North title if they win at Cincinnati but ironically needs the team that once called Cleveland home to beat Pittsburgh next week.
Key questions: Did anyone think that before the first time these two teams met this year in Week 2 that one team would be 9-5 at the second meeting and the other 5-9? Perhaps, but something tells me if you asked 100 average football fans that day, 98 would’ve said the Bengals would be the 9-5 team. Guess again. So can Cleveland win 10 games for the first time since they returned to the league in 1999? WBOC hasn’t yet put up which game they’ll have this week, but I’m thinking since it’s an AFC North contest this may be the one.
Or we may get this game…
Oakland (4-10) at Jacksonville (10-4), 1 p.m. (CBS)
What’s at stake: The Jaguars lock up a wild card with a win (or a loss by either Cleveland or Tennessee). Possible playoff destinations for Jacksonville are San Diego (who they beat), Pittsburgh (ditto), or maybe Cleveland (who they didn’t play.) Oakland would like to just win, baby.
Key questions: Will Jacksonville running back Fred Taylor vote online 1,000 times for himself to get in the Pro Bowl next season? Apparently 10 times wasn’t enough.
Now to the late games…
Tampa Bay (9-5) at San Francisco (4-10), 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
What’s at stake: Tampa Bay is playing for playoff position since they’ve already won the NFC South. San Francisco is playing to enjoy sunny California before they go to Cleveland next weekend.
Key questions: Will Tampa Bay really be interested in winning? After all, would you really want to be the NFC’s #3 seed and likely go to frigid Green Bay in a second-round game or be the #4 seed and probably play at Dallas? Yeah, there’s the matter of who you play in the first round but the tradeoff looms. Because Seattle beat the Bucs in Week 1 they have the tiebreaker to determine seeding; thus a loss for Tampa and a Seattle win sets their positions.
Miami (1-13) at New England (14-0), 4:15 p.m. (CBS)
What’s at stake: New England’s quest for perfection. They’ve already set themselves up for home field throughout the AFC playoffs.
Key questions: Will this set a NFL record for betting point spread? The opening line was 23 points. One more and they tie the record of 24 points first set in a 1993 game between San Francisco and Cincinnati. The Patriots had a record opening line last week, 27 over the Jets but that soon fell to 24 points and tied the 1993 mark.
But you’ll get to watch this game instead…
Baltimore (4-10) at Seattle (9-5), 4:15 p.m. (CBS locally)
What’s at stake: Similarly to Tampa Bay, the Seahawks are playing to get as weak of a first-round opponent as possible and breaking out the long johns for the trip to Green Bay. As for Baltimore, perhaps what’s at stake is Brian Billick’s job.
Key questions: How long do the Ravens stay with Kyle Boller at quarterback? Certainly Troy Smith didn’t lose the game at Miami last week. Otherwise, will the Ravens win again this year? At least they get a fourth-place schedule next season.
This one might be a better game too…
New York Jets (3-11) at Tennessee (8-6), 4:15 p.m. (CBS)
What’s at stake: Tennessee needs to win or they’re eliminated from playoff contention. Of course, if Cleveland and Jacksonville are victorious beforehand this game becomes meaningless.
Key questions: The obvious – will this game still have playoff implications when it begins? They should know the Jacksonville and Cleveland results by then.
Now the Sunday night game…
Washington (7-7) at Minnesota (8-6), 8:15 p.m. (NBC locally)
What’s at stake: Washington needs to win to have any chance at a playoff berth. Minnesota could seal a spot if they win and Philadelphia defeated New Orleans earlier.
Key questions: Can the Redskins’ Todd Collins play well without a howling wind? Will the Washington D be able to contain Adrian Peterson? NBC picked well for it’s Sunday night game this week, but what will the Redskins do when they play a day game again? This will be three prime time games (Chicago, New York, Minnesota) in a row.
Monday night’s game…
Denver (6-8) at San Diego (9-5)
What’s at stake: San Diego can stay in the #3 seed position with a win. With a victory, they hold the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh based on conference record (8-3 vs. 7-4). Denver’s out of the running but they’d like a little payback for the 41-3 tattooing they received at home against the Chargers back in Week 5.
Key questions: Have the Chargers finally hit their stride? Remember, they were only 5-5 coming into the Baltimore game in Week 12. Since then they’ve won 4 straight but only against mediocre opposition.
Next week I’ll do this again, likely with fewer important games. It’s possible all 12 playoff teams may be set and it’s also possible 8 of 12 teams will be positioned so only a few games will have meaning. We’ll see.
Lions lament part 50
Yep, that’s how many seasons it’s been since the Detroit Lions have won an NFL title (not to mention 16 since they last won a playoff game.) And after being humiliated 51-14 at San Diego, losing their sixth straight game after a 6-2 start, and allowing the Chargers to clinch the AFC West title, I have one thing to say (again…)
I used this photo last year too, but nothing ever seems to change. Expect to see duplicates of that sign next week in the Lions’ home finale against Kansas City. Maybe we’ll even get the fans with the bags over their heads. The Ford family might make fine cars, but their football team sure is an Edsel.
Of course, when you stop and think about it, the bigger fools are the fans who come in and carry the signs. I know there’s a sunk cost in season tickets but somewhere along the line the fans will quit showing up, even in Detroit. Every team has a down cycle, but 50 years? Come on.
Fortunately, for all of the Lions’ woes, at least they’re not the Ravens losing to an 0-13 team.
Modell to Canton?
I was actually doing my reading tonight and bookmarking articles for future post ideas when I came across this one by Jim Williams in the Examiner.
The short version of my reaction is that I’ll support Art Modell’s induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame when he supports Robert Irsay’s. Williams quotes Sports Marketing, Inc. president Tom Wilson:
“But those of us who know Art know his move was all about business. The Indians and the Cavs got new homes, but the Browns could not get a favorable new stadium deal. The Baltimore offer was one of the greatest deals in the history of sports, and Art would have been a fool not to have taken it.”
Or he could have sold the unprofitable Browns and retired handsomely. The way the Browns/Ravens affair was handled was just terrible, much like Irsay’s moving the Colts in the dead of night. It basically left the team and city in limbo for the latter half of the 1995 season. And what was shaping up to maybe be a decent season turned into a nightmare.
I recall the news came out in early November, right before a home game (which once I looked it up I realized it was Houston because I also recalled they got blown out.) A team that started 4-4 before the secret negotiations were leaked to the news then proceeded to get bombed that afternoon by the Oilers and went into a 6 game tailspin. They did win their final game at old Municipal Stadium (their only late-season win as they ended the ’95 season 5-11) when they beat the hated Bengals 26-10 and hundreds of fans took anything they could out of the old park – turf, seats, whatever wasn’t nailed down. By this time the old stadium was no longer the home of the Indians (they moved over to Jacobs Field earlier that year) so no teams would play there after the Browns left.
I’ll concede that the NFL did learn from the Irsay/Colts debacle, mandating that the Browns name and colors stay with the city of Cleveland until it got a new expansion franchise – which did get the new stadium Modell wanted. From the Hall of Fame website:
“Determined to keep the team in Cleveland, Browns fans and Cleveland city officials orchestrated an unprecedented grass-roots campaign to block the move. The NFL quickly responded and, working with city officials, developed a unique solution that not only provided for a new state-of-the-art stadium, but guaranteed the return of pro football to Cleveland by no later than 1999. Additionally, Art Modell agreed to relinquish the “Browns” name, colors and team history to the new owner of the suspended franchise.”
Time heals almost all wounds. But if Modell is inducted into the HOF this August, don’t be surprised to hear a lot of boos and catcalls from the northeast Ohio football faithful (since Cleveland is the closest NFL franchise to the city of Canton.) That’s if he feels safe coming even that close to Cleveland, a city he reportedly hasn’t visited in a decade. Maybe Jim Williams will comment on the fans’ lack of class, but just as Baltimore’s villain is Robert Irsay, northern Ohio’s is Art Modell.
NFL playoff picture set
With San Francisco’s game-winning field goal moments ago, it solidified the NFL playoff setup.
Saturday will have two games, both on NBC (cable channel 11 locally).
At 4:30 #6 seed Kansas City (9-7), a winner over Jacksonville today, takes on AFC foe and #3 seed Indianapolis (12-4) and tangles with Peyton Manning and company after the Colts knocked off Miami to finish an 8-0 home season. The two teams did not meet this season, their last go-round was a 45-35 victory for the Chiefs in 2004. They also met in the 2003 playoffs when Indianapolis upset the favored Chiefs 38-31 – both these games were in Kansas City. A Kansas City win would send them out to San Diego to face the Chargers, but if Indianapolis takes the contest they’ll travel to their onetime home in Baltimore.
After that’s over, the 8:00 game begins the NFC playoffs as #5 seed Dallas (9-7) goes up to the Pacific Northwest to face the fourth seed Seattle (9-7). The Cowboys limp into the playoffs after losing two straight at home to eventual NFC East champion Philadelphia last week and the 2-13 Detroit Lions today. (Now why couldn’t the Lions play this well the WHOLE SEASON? Of course, now they don’t get the #1 draft pick. Oh well.) Seattle got into the postseason on a winning note by dusting off Tampa Bay down in Florida. Last season in Week 7 these two teams met in Seattle with the Seahawks winning 13-10. The winner will either face Chicago or New Orleans depending on Sunday’s result.
On Sunday the playoffs shift to the conference’s “home” networks with the early (1:00) game locally on WBOC 16. This game features a divisional rematch between AFC East foes as the #5 seeded New York Jets (10-6) make the short trip up I-95 to square off with #4 seed New England (11-5). These teams met twice this year and both won on enemy turf – last meeting was week 10 at Foxboro and the Jets prevailed 17-14. Most interesting about this game is the fact Jets coach Eric Mangini was a longtime assistant to Patriots coach Bill Belichick until New York hired him away for this season, Mangini’s first stint as an NFL head coach.
Lastly at 4:30, Fox 21 will have another game between East Coast rivals as ancient NFC East foes collide. The #6 seeded New York Giants (8-8) renew hostilities with the third seeded Philadelphia Eagles (10-6). Once again, these rivals spilt the two regular season games and both won on opponent’s home fields – most recently just two weeks ago as the Eagles throttled Eli Manning’s team 36-22. After being left for dead at 5-6 this season, Philadelphia’s won five straight including a three game run where they won consecutively against all three NFC East rivals (Washington, New York, and Dallas) on their turf. Mostly backups played as Philadelphia won over Atlanta today, while the retiring Tiki Barber extended his career by carrying the Giants to a win at Washington last night. If the Giants do win in Philadelphia, they face the Chicago Bears next week, but a Philadelphia win sends them down to the Superdome to play New Orleans.
The other thing that was set up today was next season’s opponent schedule as the final two opponents for each team were made official based on this season’s standings.
Locally, Baltimore will get home games against their three AFC North rivals (Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh); two teams from the AFC East (New England and New York Jets), two teams from the NFC West (Arizona and St. Louis), and the first-place AFC South team (Indianapolis). They’ll travel to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Miami, San Francisco, Seattle, and San Diego (AFC West first place team.)
Meanwhile, the Redskins will host their three NFC East rivals (Dallas, New York, Philadelphia); two teams from the NFC North (Chicago and Detroit), two teams from the AFC East (Buffalo and Miami), and the fourth place team from the NFC West (Arizona). Their road games will be at Dallas, New York (for both the Giants and the Jets), Philadelphia, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, and Tampa Bay (4th place in the NFC South.)
Being a Lions fan, one trivia note is that they’ll get to try again next season to win at Washington, which they never have. The other oddity is that this has to be the longest streak of playing an opponent outside your division – for the seventh season in a row they’ll play Arizona because both teams finished 4th in their division. There’s only been two times (including this season) where the entire divisions played (i.e. the entire NFC North played the entire NFC West), the other five were based on both teams finishing in the same divisional slot (usually last.)
All right, now I can get back to politics and other stuff since I don’t have a horse in the NFL playoff race. In these cases I generally root for teams who have never been to the Super Bowl – that will apply only to New Orleans in this case. I suppose Indianapolis would be the other team since that city hasn’t been there (although the Colts franchise has.) However, Kansas City has waited 36 years for a repeat appearance and the Jets 37 so they’ve been starved for a long while as well.
NFL playoff update: week 17
Well, the Giants won tonight so I can hit the old delete feature on a couple games which are now only for pride.
The dominoes will start to fall tonight as the NFL season comes to an exciting close. With 20 teams either secured a playoff spot or still alive for the postseason, it’s amazing that currently 14 of the 16 games have a bearing on the playoff picture – the only exceptions being Cleveland at Houston (both teams are eliminated) and Seattle at Tampa Bay (Seattle is set as #4 seed in the NFC because they have a worse conference record than Philadelphia even if both finish 9-7 – 7-5 vs. 8-4 for the Eagles. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was eliminated weeks ago.)
Tomorrow night’s matchup begins the weekend and has the potential to make many of the other games meaningless if the result is correct. Because it’s on the (cable-only) NFL Network, I’m not sure if there will also be a free TV outlet in the area. We live within the “home area” for the Redskins and the game’s a sellout. So this time I’m going in game order rather than seeding order.
New York Giants (7-8) at Washington (5-10), 8 p.m. Saturday (NFL Network).
Eli Manning brings the Giants into Washington needing to win to grab the final remaining NFC playoff spot and give the NFC East a sweep of the wildcards. They’ll be hoping to repeat their success of Week 5 where New York throttled the Redskins 19-3 in the Meadowlands. That game started a 5 game winning streak where the Giants looked like world-beaters and put them 6-2 at the midway mark.
But the Redskins will have many more fans than the ones packed into FedEx Field. The playoff fates of Green Bay, St. Louis, Carolina, and Atlanta also hang in the balance. A Giant win officially knocks out the final three teams in that group and leaves the Packers needing to win and getting help from 8 different teams to advance.
Now we’ll move on to the Sunday games.
Carolina (7-8) at New Orleans (10-5), 1 p.m.
Carolina is third in the NFC wildcard pecking order behind the Giants and Green Bay based on their current 5-6 conference record, division record vs. Atlanta, and victory over St. Louis. So they need the Giants and Packers to both lose while they win. Meanwhile, New Orleans wraps up a dream regular season where they’ve already assured themselves a week off and a home game against either Dallas, Philadelphia, or Seattle in the second round. Carolina seeks a repeat of their Week 5 win over the Saints (21-18 at Carolina.)
Detroit (2-13) at Dallas (9-6), 1 p.m. (locally on Fox 21)
If only because of the vagaries of the NFL’s schedulemaker, Detroit finds itself in the playoff mix. Not only would a Detroit win assure Philadephia the NFC East title, it’s also one of the eight games Green Bay needs to fall its way if the Giants win. So Dallas will just seek a repeat of its 20-7 victory last season over the Lions in Dallas. And I can watch to see if a Detroit fan can sneak a “Fire Millen” sign into Texas Stadium.
Jacksonville (8-7) at Kansas City (8-7), 1 p.m.
The loser in this one is definitely out, and there’s actually a pretty good chance the winner will be too when all is said and done. Both of these teams are well down the tiebreaker scenarios. Each team needs Cincinnati and Tennessee to lose, while Jacksonville needs a Jets loss and Kansas City has to see Denver go down. But play they must and will. The last time they did so was 2004, where Jacksonville won at home 22-16.
New England (10-5) at Tennessee (8-7), 1 p.m.
While the Patriots aren’t locked into the #4 seed in the AFC, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll end up there. Only if they win and Indianapolis loses would they slide up to #3 and in either case they host a playoff game next week. But Tennessee has a chance to make history should they get some help from losses by Cincinnati and Denver plus a Kansas City win…no team’s ever started 0-5 and made the playoffs. I’m sure at that point New England was thinking about the nice cake game it had at the end of the schedule, but no more. This may be a shootout like the teams’ last meeting, a 38-30 win for the Patriots back in 2003.
Oakland (2-13) at New York Jets (9-6), 1 p.m.
Like the Lions, Raider Nation has a role in the playoff hunt despite its woeful record. The question is whether they have any shot at playing spoiler against the Jets, who simply need to win to assure themselves a spot in the playoffs. If the Raiders win, it provides additional hope for teams underneath the Jets in the order. Last season these two played with the Jets winning 26-10 at home.
Pittsburgh (7-8) at Cincinnati (8-7), 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh was knocked out of the postseason sweepstakes by their loss to the Ravens last week, but can extend the same discourtesy to the Bengals with a win while avenging a 28-20 loss to Cincinnati back in Week 3. Even with a win, the Bengals will need help from either Oakland beating the Jets or a combo pack of a Denver loss and Kansas City win to make the playoffs for a second straight season.
St. Louis (7-8) at Minnesota (6-9), 1 p.m.
This game might be the next meaningless one. St. Louis is pretty much the bottom of the barrel as far as playoff hopes go, and a Giants win Saturday night snuffs out the Rams’ faint hopes. Even if they survive that, they still need losses from the Panthers and Falcons to make it (they defeated Green Bay earlier so they hold the tiebreaker over the Packers.) Last December they lost to the Vikings in the same building 27-13 so a repeat performance kills their hopes.
Meanwhile, we have an interesting anamoly in the broadcasting world. For the first time I can recall, both CBS and FOX were allowed to have doubleheader broadcasts. I couldn’t find out whether the CBS early game telecast locally would be Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (which would be my guess) but I know FOX has the Detroit-Dallas matchup starting at 1:00. Our late games are noted below with the 4:15 starts.
Arizona (5-10) at San Diego (13-2), 4:15 p.m.
Yeah, it’s pretty much a mismatch. But San Diego needs to win this to assure that they need not leave sunny California for a playoff game until they win the AFC title. This is one of those games that you’re happy that the teams only face off once every 4 years. By the way, the Chargers won in Arizona that 2002 day, 23-15.
Atlanta (7-8) at Philadelphia (9-6), 4:15 p.m. (locally on Fox 21)
While Atlanta may be out of the playoff running well before this game starts (since they need both the Giants and Carolina to lose earlier contests), the Eagles will likely know by then whether they need to win to assure themselves a NFC East crown and #3 seed. There is a scenario where these two teams could meet again next week in the same place but it also involves Dallas losing to the lowly Lions and that’s not likely. In 2005 these two opened the season against each other with Atlanta winning in the Georgia Dome 14-10. While the game’s outdoors this time, weather shouldn’t be a factor.
Buffalo (7-8) at Baltimore (12-3), 4:15 p.m. (locally on WBOC 16)
Buffalo’s loss to Tennessee last week ended their playoff hopes and Baltimore’s already locked in. The only question is how much scoreboard watching Brian Billick’s crew will do since they need San Diego to lose to Arizona to have a shot at homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, if things go badly for the Ravens they’ll be watching for Miami to win at Indianapolis and keep the Ravens’ possible first-round bye intact. Two seasons ago these teams met in Baltimore with the Ravens winning 20-6.
Miami (6-9) at Indianapolis (11-4), 4:15 p.m.
This game has a big stake in the AFC playoff picture. At 9-0, it looked like there was no doubt Indianapolis was looking at “home dome” advantage through the AFC playoffs. But 4 straight road losses dropped the Colts from world-beaters to just hoping for a first-round bye. Part of that is beating their onetime division rivals while the other part is hoping another former division foe (Buffalo) takes care of business in the franchise’s onetime home city. The Colts and Dolphins haven’t squared off since 2003, when the Colts won at Miami 23-17.
San Francisco (6-9) at Denver (9-6), 4:15 p.m.
Oh, this oughta be interesting. Denver’s slammed with their second straight weekend of snow and a warm-weather team comes to town. You just hope we don’t see the Super Bowl XXIV result in reverse with a huge Denver win, nor do fans of Cincinnati, Kansas City, Jacksonville, or Tennessee. Way back in the second week of 2002, these teams met under much less adverse conditions by the Bay with Denver winning 24-14. A Denver win and it’s off to a likely date with the Patriots (or possibly a Denver at Indianapolis playoff rematch for the third straight season) next weekend.
Green Bay (7-8) at Chicago (13-2), 8:15 p.m. (locally on NBC)
The draw to this is that it’s quite possibly Brett Favre’s final NFL game. But wait…there’s still a viable scenario that #4 may play another day. (Besides the fact he’s officially announced nothing about his future.) We will already know by this time whether it’s possible for Green Bay to make it with a win, but here’s the scenarios:
If the Giants win, Green Bay also has to win along with Arizona, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota, San Francisco, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Seattle. (So I guess technically all 16 games have playoff implications, don’t they?)
If the Giants lose, then Green Bay needs to win and have a St. Louis loss or a win by either Carolina or Atlanta to make it.
Theoretically the two teams (Giants and Packers) could get all the way to the “strength of schedule” tiebreaker where the Giants currently hold the edge (but playing 13-2 Chicago helps the Packers.) Crazier things have happened, but the first order of business is for Green Bay to avenge its season-opening 26-0 loss to “da Bears.”
I know where I’ll be this weekend as I’m checking off results and figuring out who’s playing where next week.
NFL playoff update: week 16
Back at it. I’m amazed that we only lost ONE team last week in the playoff sweepstakes as the NFL continues on its apparent goal of 32 mediocre 8-8 teams. Well, ok, maybe 26 mediocre 8-8 teams, 5 others that are 9-7, and the Detroit Lions finishing their usual 3-13 while Matt Millen gets another contract extension. Anyway…
There was one team that set its playoff destiny last week and thus made it two “meaningless” games this weekend. Chicago is assured of the #1 seed in the NFC and Soldier Field will host their playoff games until either the Bears are eliminated or they advance to Super Bowl XLI. Thus, their contest with the aforementioned Lions in Detroit has no bearing on the playoff race as Chicago’s in and Detroit’s out. It’ll be a nice warm venue for the Bears fans to cheer in.
The other meaningless game is Tampa Bay at Cleveland, both the Bucs and Browns long since knocked out of contention.
In like flint:
Chicago (see above).
Jockeying for position:
San Diego (12-2 overall, 5-1 division, 10-2 conference).
Opponent: at Seattle (8-6), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Seattle took a 31-28 decision against their onetime AFC West foe in the 2002 season finale.
What’s at stake: A win by San Diego plus a loss by Baltimore gives the Chargers homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. They still get the first round bye with the win or an Indianapolis loss, but the loss to Baltimore in Week 4 could give the Ravens the home turf if the Chargers stumble in their one of their final two games.
Indianapolis (11-3 overall, 3-2 division, 8-2 conference)
Opponent: at Houston (4-10), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Indianapolis rolled over the Texans 43-24 in Week 2 back home in Indiana.
What’s at stake: The Colts have to win to stay ahead of the Ravens in the battle for the first round bye. Despite having the same overall and conference record as Baltimore, Indianapolis owns the tiebreaker based on a better record against their common opponents (3-1 against Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Denver vs. Baltimore’s 2-2 against the same teams. Indianapolis also defeated future Ravens opponent Buffalo this season.) A loss puts the Colts in a position to have to play a first-round game then travel outside the RCA Dome for a second-round matchup…the Colts are just 4-3 on the road this season.
Baltimore (11-3 overall, 3-2 division, 8-2 conference)
Opponent: at Pittsburgh (7-7), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Ben Roethlisberger was on his back for much of this game as the Ravens bruised and cruised 27-0 just 4 weeks ago at home.
What’s at stake: Besides the joy of all but dooming the Pittsburgh playoff hopes with a win, the Ravens can keep pace with the two teams above them as they go for a first-round bye or even home field throughout the AFC playoffs. The win over San Diego could loom large.
New Orleans (9-5 overall, 4-1 division, 8-2 conference)
Opponent: at New York Giants (7-7), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: The nomadic 2005 Saints played their first “home” game against the Giants in New Jersey and lost 27-10.
What’s at stake: While the Saints are out of the running for the #1 seed in the NFC, they can secure a first round pass by winning this game and watching Dallas lose to Philadelphia on Christmas Day.
Dallas (9-5 overall, 2-3 division, 6-4 conference)
Opponent: vs. Philadelphia (8-6), 5 p.m. Monday.
Last meeting: Week 5 saw Dallas lose at Philadelphia 38-24.
What’s at stake: Dallas is already assured at least a wild-card berth, but can win the NFC East outright with a win in front of the home folks. A loss would give Philadelphia the leg up in the division race and could set up a Dallas-Philadelphia rematch in the playoffs if the Eagles win next week.
Win and they’re in:
New England (10-4 overall, 4-2 division, 6-4 conference)
Opponent: at Jacksonville (8-6), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: New England won last year’s playoff opener 28-3 at home.
What’s at stake: A win by the Patriots wraps up the AFC East, they’d be two games up on the Jets with one to play. It also maintains their slim chances at a first-round bye but for that they need some major help.
Seattle (8-6 overall, 3-3 division, 6-5 conference)
Opponent: vs. San Diego (12-2), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See San Diego above.
What’s at stake: If the Seahawks can beat the Chargers (or San Francisco loses) they win the NFC West (two games up with one to play). It’s not likely they would get a first-round playoff bye but their chances would improve with a Philadelphia win over Dallas.
Philadelphia (8-6 overall, 4-1 division, 7-3 conference)
Opponent: at Dallas (9-5), 5 p.m. Monday.
Last meeting: See Dallas above.
What’s at stake: It’s sort of hard to believe given the McNabb injury, but if Philadelphia beats Dallas they clinch a playoff berth (based on a better possible conference record than Atlanta and better possible division record than the Giants) and move into the driver’s seat for an NFC East title. A loss would place them into the “must-win” category next week for a shot at the playoffs.
A little help from their friends:
Denver (8-6 overall, 3-3 division, 7-4 conference)
Opponent: vs. Cincinnati (8-6), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In 2004, Denver lost to the Bengals 23-10 at Cincinnati.
What’s at stake: This is what I like to call a “sub-playoff” game, as these are the two teams sitting with the #5 and #6 seeds in the AFC. If Denver wins and gets help from Oakland beating Kansas City or either the New York Jets or Jacksonville losing, they get a spot in the postseason.
Cincinnati (8-6 overall, 4-1 division, 6-4 conference)
Opponent: at Denver (8-6), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Denver above.
What’s at stake: On the flip side, if Cincinnati takes this road contest they need the hand from Tennessee beating Buffalo with either the Jets or Jaguars going down.
New York Giants (7-7 overall, 3-2 division, 6-4 conference)
Opponent: vs. New Orleans (9-5), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See New Orleans above.
What’s at stake: The Giants need to win to stay in the hunt, and it’s at least theoretical a win gets them into the postseason – with either of these two scenarios also occurring:
Minnesota and Atlanta lose while Philadelphia and Seattle win, or Minnesota, Atlanta, and San Francisco lose while Philadelphia wins. Either way, they need to beat New Orleans or they’re pretty much out of it.
Fading fast:
One team could survive with a loss but it would severely diminish their playoff hopes.
Jacksonville (8-6 overall, 2-4 division, 5-5 conference)
Opponent: vs. New England (10-4), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See New England above. A repeat of that debacle could be critical to the Jaguars postseason plans, but they can’t be knocked out because of the Denver-Cincinnati matchup.
On life support:
A loss does these teams in for all intents and purposes.
New York Jets (8-6 overall, 3-2 division, 5-5 conference)
Opponent: at Miami (4-10), 8:30 p.m. Monday.
Last meeting: In Week 6 Miami lost to the Jets 20-17 at the Meadowlands. If the Jets lose this time, they’re out if Jacksonville wins since they were blown out early on by the Jags.
Buffalo (7-7 overall, 3-3 division, 5-5 conference)
Opponent: vs. Tennessee (7-7), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In 2003 Buffalo lost at Tennessee 28-26. Like last week’s game against the Dolphins, loser walks.
Pittsburgh (7-7 overall, 2-2 division, 4-6 conference)
Opponent: vs. Baltimore (11-3), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Baltimore above. Could this be Bill Cowher’s last home game as the Steelers coach? That question adds a little more intrigue to an already heated matchup.
Tennessee (7-7 overall, 4-2 division, 4-6 conference)
Opponent: vs. Buffalo (7-7), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Buffalo above. A good “sub-playoff” matchup but I don’t think it’ll stand up to the “Music City Miracle” of a few years back.
Kansas City (7-7 overall, 3-2 division, 3-7 conference)
Opponent: at Oakland (2-12), 8 p.m. Saturday.
Last meeting: In Week 11 the Chiefs prevailed 17-13 at home. Luckily they drew a weak opponent for a must-win game.
Atlanta (7-7 overall, 3-2 division, 5-5 conference)
Opponent: vs. Carolina (7-7), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Atlanta won the season opener 20-6 at Carolina. What puts them on the bubble with a 7-7 record is their losses to two NFC East teams (New York and Dallas) still in contention and a worse conference record than Philadelphia (5-5 vs. 7-3).
Green Bay (6-8 overall, 3-1 division, 5-5 conference)
Opponent: vs. Minnesota (6-8), 8 p.m. Thursday.
Last meeting: In Week 10 the Packers beat the Vikings 23-17 under the Metrodome. This could be the last opportunity for Brett Favre to play at Lambeau and in front of a national audience, which is likely why the NFL Network picked this game.
San Francisco (6-8 overall, 3-2 division, 5-6 conference)
Opponent: vs. Arizona (4-10), 4:05 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: The Niners lost the opener in Arizona 34-27. They may actually have a better shot at the division than a wildcard, but they need to beat the Cardinals either way.
Carolina (6-8 overall, 3-1 division, 4-6 conference)
Opponent: at Atlanta (7-7), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Atlanta above. This could put disappointed Carolina fans out of their misery.
Minnesota (6-8 overall, 2-3 division, 6-4 conference)
Opponent: at Green Bay (6-8), 8:00 p.m. Thursday.
Last meeting: See Green Bay above. I’m sure the Viking fans would love to spoil the Lambeau party since the loser’s done in the playoff race.
St. Louis (6-8 overall, 2-4 division, 4-6 conference)
Opponent: vs. Washington (5-9), 1 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: The Rams lost in the same locale last season to the Redskins, 24-9. They are the absolute bottom of the playoff heap and very well could get axed even if they win. But that’s what happens when you lose 4 home games.
Now, next week’s promises to be shorter because we will lose a bunch of teams.
Saturday football returns
Much as I did during the tail end of the baseball season, I enjoy the run up to the NFL playoffs. To me, the week that the Saturday games return is the beginning of the final push although this season is different than seasons past where there were 2 or 3 Saturday games. Now they’re spread out farther during the weekend and start Thursday night.
What I’ll do is cover the playoff contenders and the possible outcomes after this weekend’s games.
Jockeying for position:
San Diego (11-2 overall, 4-1 division, 9-2 conference).
Opponent: home to Kansas City (7-6), 8:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Kansas City won 30-27 at Arrowhead in week 7 this season.
What’s at stake: A win by San Diego plus a loss by Indianapolis assures the team who’s already clinched the AFC West a first-round bye and a home game in round 2. A loss to the Chiefs would allow either Indianapolis or Baltimore to leapfrog the Chargers into the #1 seed in the AFC. Because this is San Diego’s final AFC game (their last two games are against NFC foes Seattle and Arizona) a loss would set their conference record at 9-3. Indianapolis can win out and win the tiebreaker over San Diego (10-2 conference record vs. SD’s 9-3) while Baltimore automatically wins a tiebreaker over the Chargers because of their win over San Diego in Week 4.
Chicago (11-2 overall, 4-0 division, 9-0 conference).
Opponent: home to Tampa Bay (3-10), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Last season “da Bears” won in Florida by a 13-10 count. This is the first time since Tampa Bay was split out of the old NFC Central (after the 2001 season) that the Buccaneers play in Chicago.
What’s at stake: It’s pretty simple. If the Bears can handle lowly Tampa Bay and New Orleans loses to Washington, the Bears will have home field throughout the NFC playoffs. The Bears already have the first round bye and second round home game in hand.
Win and they’re in:
Indianapolis (10-3 overall, 3-2 division, 7-2 conference).
Opponent: home to Cincinnati (8-5), 8:30 p.m. Monday.
Last meeting: In 2005, Indianapolis won a 45-37 shootout with the Bengals in Cincinnati.
What’s at stake: Indianapolis has stumbled after their 9-0 start but can still secure a playoff berth by beating the Bengals. Their 11th win would be enough as only 6 teams in the AFC have fewer than 6 losses. It’s possible that by the time this game is played Monday night the Colts would be in the playoffs anyway if one of the following two scenarios happen:
Jacksonville loses to Tennessee. It would assure the Colts no worse than a tie for the top of the AFC South with Jacksonville (both with 10-6 records.) Indianapolis split the two games with Jacksonville but the Colts would have a 3-3 division record vs. the Jaguars’ 2-4 division mark.
Denver loses at Arizona. It eliminates the possibility of Indianapolis losing a 3-way tie with Denver and some other team which would have a better conference record than Indianapolis.
Baltimore (10-3 overall, 3-1 division, 7-2 conference).
Opponent: home to Cleveland (4-9), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In week 3, the Ravens barely beat Cleveland in front of the Dawg Pound 15-14.
What’s at stake: A win puts the Ravens in the playoffs with at least a wild card. If Cincinnati falls at Indianapolis then Baltimore wins the AFC North outright. A loss to the Browns would not only help make my day, it would put the Ravens in a slightly more precarious position to possibly miss the playoffs if other teams behind them win.
New Orleans (9-4 overall, 4-1 division, 8-1 conference).
Opponent: home to Washington (4-9), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: The Saints marched into Washington and won 24-20 back in 2003.
What’s at stake: Probably the feel-good story of the NFL season, New Orleans can secure an NFC South title by beating the Redskins. This is because they swept second-place Atlanta in the season series and could do no worse than tying with 10-6 records. It’s also possible the Saints can get a first-round bye with losses from the other division leaders (Dallas and Seattle) and the New York Giants…but first things first.
Seattle (8-5 overall, 3-2 division, 6-4 conference).
Opponent: home to San Francisco (5-8), 8:00 p.m. Thursday.
Last meeting: In week 11, Seattle was surprised in San Francisco 20-14. That was the 49′ers last victory.
What’s at stake: It’s because of that loss in San Francisco that the NFC West is even in question. Had the Seahawks won that game they would’ve been in the playoffs already when Green Bay won last Sunday. But a win for the Seahawks at home puts them in and snaps a string of five straight Super Bowl losers not making the playoffs the next season.
A little help from their friends:
New England (9-4 overall, 4-2 division, 5-4 conference).
Opponent: home to Houston (4-9), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: New England and Houston have met just once, a 23-20 OT win for New England at Houston in 2003. This is Houston’s first trip to New England since rejoining the NFL.
What’s at stake: A Patriot victory coupled with a New York Jets loss in Minnesota gives the Patriots another AFC East crown, their fourth straight (yawn.) However, they are currently the lowest seed among the four division leaders so it’s likely they’ll get just one home playoff game.
Dallas (8-5 overall, 2-3 division, 5-4 conference).
Opponent: at Atlanta (7-6), 8:00 p.m. Saturday.
Last meeting: The Falcons spanked the Cowboys in Texas Stadium, 27-13, during the 2003 season.
What’s at stake: This is actually the lone Saturday game on the schedule. Dallas needs a win plus losses by Minnesota against the New York Jets and either New Orleans or Carolina in their games on Sunday to assure themselves a postseason spot this week.
Muddling along:
There are several teams in the playoff hunt who cannot clinch a position nor can they be eliminated this week. These teams are:
Cincinnati (8-5 overall, 4-1 division, 6-3 conference).
Opponent: at Indianapolis (10-3), 8:30 p.m. Monday.
Last meeting: See Indianapolis above.
Jacksonville (8-5 overall, 2-3 division, 5-4 conference).
Opponent: at Tennessee (6-7), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In week 9, Jacksonville routed Tennessee at home 37-7.
New York Giants (7-6 overall, 3-1 division, 6-3 conference).
Opponent: home to Philadelphia (7-6), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Back in Week 2, the Giants took a stunner at Philly in OT 30-24.
Philadelphia (7-6 overall, 3-1 division, 6-3 conference).
Opponent: at New York Giants (7-6), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See New York Giants above.
Atlanta (7-6 overall, 3-2 division, 5-4 conference).
Opponent: home to Dallas (8-5), 8:00 p.m. Saturday.
Last meeting: See Dallas above.
Fading fast:
These teams are one game back of the lowest playoff teams in each conference. A loss may not eliminate them but they would be on the brink. In the AFC, wins by Cincinnati and Jacksonville would all but doom the teams below them on the ladder, while the NFC also-rans would be hurt badly by an Atlanta win. Since the Giants and Philadelphia play each other, someone will (almost certainly) get an 8th win.
New York Jets (7-6 overall, 3-2 division, 5-5 conference).
Opponent: at Minnesota (6-7), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: Back in 2002, the Jets won at home 20-7. Teams in opposite conferences only meet every four seasons during the regular season under the NFL’s scheduling formula.
What’s at stake: This is a game between two teams in the “fading fast” category so it’s sort of a sub-playoff matchup.
Kansas City (7-6 overall, 3-1 division, 3-6 conference).
Opponent: at San Diego (11-2), 8:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See San Diego (way) above.
What’s at stake: A loss by the Chiefs eliminates them in all but the most complex mathematics.
Denver (7-6 overall, 3-3 division, 7-4 conference).
Opponent: at Arizona (4-9), 4:05 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: The 2002 season finale saw Denver blow out the hapless Cards 37-7.
What’s at stake: Denver has an advantage over many others in this group as they’ve won all seven of their victories over AFC foes. Since conference record is a key tiebreaker, it’s to the Broncos’ benefit. A loss to Arizona doesn’t hurt their conference mark.
Minnesota (6-7 overall, 2-3 division, 6-4 conference).
Opponent: home to New York Jets (7-6), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See New York Jets above.
What’s at stake: Like Denver above, Minnesota has picked its victories well and holds an advantage in conference record over other close teams. Again, a loss doesn’t hurt their conference record but would put them two games in back of either the Giants or Philadelphia.
Carolina (6-7 overall, 3-1 division, 4-6 conference).
Opponent: home to Pittsburgh (6-7), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In 2002, the Steelers manhandled Carolina 30-14 in Pittsburgh.
What’s at stake: This is Carolina’s final home game and the last two are no bargain (at Atlanta, at New Orleans.) So here is a must-win for the Panthers.
On life support:
Teams in this category – if they lose, stick a fork in them because their playoff hopes are done. They’re 2 games back with 3 to play.
Buffalo (6-7 overall, 2-3 division, 4-5 conference).
Opponent: home to Miami (6-7), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In week 2, Buffalo knocked off the Dolphins in southern Florida 16-6. Loser walks.
Pittsburgh (6-7 overall, 2-2 division, 4-6 conference).
Opponent: at Carolina (6-7), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Carolina above. This looked like a great late-season matchup in August, didn’t it?
Tennessee (6-7 overall, 3-2 division, 3-6 conference).
Opponent: home to Jacksonville (8-5), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Jacksonville above. If they had half-winners on the NFL schedule, Tennessee would be a second-half playoff team…6-2 after an 0-5 start.
Miami (6-7 overall, 1-3 division, 3-6 conference).
Opponent: at Buffalo (6-7), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: See Buffalo above. Another rotten start by the Dolphins did them in this year.
St. Louis (5-8 overall, 2-4 division, 4-6 conference).
Opponent: at Oakland (2-11), 4:15 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: 2002 saw the Rams win a battle between the defending NFC champs and the soon-to-be AFC champs 28-13. My, how times change in the NFL.
Green Bay (5-8 overall, 2-1 division, 4-5 conference).
Opponent: home to Detroit (2-11), 1:00 p.m. Sunday.
Last meeting: In week 3, Green Bay won at Ford Field 31-24. Brett Favre is 15-0 against the Lions at Lambeau. It would be nice to make that 15-1. Now if that somehow happens, Lambeau might just sound like a Lions home game.
San Francisco (5-8 overall, 2-2 division, 4-6 conference).
Opponent: at Seattle (8-5), 8:00 p.m. Thursday.
Last meeting: See Seattle above. At least the Niners got this far in the playoff picture, better than last season.
Long past overdue
This is a repeat of a picture I posted about the same time last year on monoblogue. Same old same old.
In 2000, the Detroit Lions were a 54-yard field goal made by Chicago’s Paul Edinger with 2 seconds left in the season finale away from reaching the playoffs for a second season in a row. In early 2001 the Lions hired Matt Millen to be their new GM after the tough ending to a 9-7 campaign.
In Matt Millen’s first season, the Lions were 2-14 and began a league-record streak of 25 road losses in a row.
While almost every other team has had at least one postseason appearance since 2000, the Lions continue to suffer humiliating defeat after defeat under Millen’s direction. On Sunday they lost to Arizona, who ended an 8 game losing skid with the 17-10 victory.
There are 3 other teams who have roughly the same length of playoff futility as the Lions do. They are the aforementioned Arizona Cardinals (last playoff appearance in 1998), Buffalo Bills (last playoff appearance was in 1999), and the Houston Texans (no playoff appearances since their 2002 debut.) In the stretch since Millen has assumed his GM role, Arizona has an overall record of 29-61, Buffalo 35-55 (with a 8-8 season in 2002 and 9-7 in 2004 so they’ve been playoff contenders), and Houston’s all-time record stands at 21-53. Given the fact that Houston started its franchise from zero, it’s a sad commentary that Detroit’s record in the same span is the exact same 21-53 with Millen at the helm. For the full period Millen’s now 23-67.
And if you look at the six #1 draft picks that Millen’s had, only 3 are still active with the Lions. His first pick was OL Jeff Backus, who’s been a solid starter throughout his career. But the next year’s pick, QB Joey Harrington, had three so-so years with the Lions and now starts for the Miami Dolphins. WR Charles Rogers was cut after two unproductive seasons in Detroit, WR Roy Williams is a good but not regularly gamebreaking receiver (153 receptions and 20 TD in 2+ seasons), and last year’s first pick, WR Mike Williams, has been left off the active roster as a healthy scratch in all but 2 games this year, with just 29 receptions and 1 TD to his credit in his brief career (all in 2005). This year’s pick was LB Ernie Sims, who’s been a starter and done a reasonable job, so maybe Millen drafts better on defense.
However, if a boss at any level had this sort of dismal performance, someone would likely show him the door. But somehow the woebegone Lions continue to keep this guy around.
So, on Thanksgiving Day, once again America will get to watch the Lions most likely be routed again like they have the last couple Thanksgiving Days – by its former quarterback no less. (But then again, maybe the Lions do have a shot with #3 at the helm for Miami.) And on Friday, the football writers will howl about how rotten it is that the lousy Detroit Lions always get a Thanksgiving game and why don’t they spread the games around? (They don’t complain about Dallas having the same tradition though.)
I say the first turkey sacrificed in the Detroit area needs to be Matt Millen. With the Tigers winning the A.L. pennant in 2006 and the Pistons and Red Wings recent champs in their respective sports, there’s only one losing team left in Detroit and now’s the time to work on changing it to four-for-four.
The final week
Well, once again I’ll be glued to the TV next weekend. It’s really nice to have Monday off 2 weeks in a row because the Sunday night games are relevant to the playoff picture.
It all starts next Saturday night with the late game:
New York Giants (10-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-11), 8 p.m. Saturday (ESPN)
The Giants can win the NFC East with a win, but they did get some help from the Ravens tonight. By beating Minnesota, Baltimore knocked the Vikings out of the playoff picture and allowed the Giants to back into a spot despite losing to Washington yesterday.
At the moment, the Giants are the #4 seed in the NFC. They could finish anywhere from #3 to #6 depending on results of theirs and other games.
To be a #3 seed, the Giants must win and Tampa Bay must lose to New Orleans. If that happens and Carolina wins their finale over Atlanta, the Giants must hope that enough of their beaten opponents win to carry the “strength of victory” tiebreaker. Currently the Giants’ defeated opponents have 3 more victories between them than Carolina’s defeated opponents do.
If the Giants simply defeat Oakland, or if Philadelphia beats Washington, New York is assured no worse than a #4 seed and a home game next week.
If the Giants lose to Oakland and do not win the NFC East, their seeding is determined by the NFC South contests. If both Carolina and Tampa Bay win, the Giants would finish as the #6 seed. If one wins and the other loses (or both lose), the Giants most likely finish #5. That would depend on how Tampa Bay’s defeated opponents do, since both teams would stand with both their conference record and common opponent record in a tie.
Carolina Panthers (10-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7), 1 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Carolina needs to win and hope Tampa Bay loses to win the NFC South title. They currently could get the #3 seed if they win and both Tampa Bay and the Giants lose. Even if they don’t win the NFC South title, a win would give them a playoff berth as the #5 seed.
If Carolina loses they could miss the playoffs entirely if both the Dallas Cowboys and Washington emerge with wins.
Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-6), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Cincinnati needs to win to hold on to the #3 seed in the AFC, or else they need New England to lose to either the New York Jets tomorrow night or Miami Dolphins next Sunday.
Kansas City may hold the largest contingent of Detroit Lions fans outside the state of Michigan next week since the Chiefs must win and the Lions must beat the Pittsburgh Steelers for Kansas City to sneak into the playoffs as the #6 seed – possibly setting up a rematch in Cincinnati. If I were running the FOX station in KC, I’d be putting the Detroit-Pittsburgh game on.
Late edit: According to nfl.com, a win by San Diego against Denver on Saturday would also eliminate the Chiefs.
Detroit Lions (5-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), 1 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
For Pittsburgh, it’s very simple. Win and they’re in as the #6 seed in the AFC. Lose and they need help from the Cincinnati Bengals. But it’s possible this game becomes irrelevant if San Diego wins Saturday afternoon. (see above.)
Miami Dolphins (8-7) at New England Patriots (most likely 10-5 after tomorrow night’s game), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
If New England chokes against the hapless 3-11 Jets, they deserve the #4 seed. This only becomes relevant as a game if they beat the Jets, otherwise New England is locked in as the #4 seed. Either way, I’m sure CBS is drooling over the possible matchups for the Patriots against either the Steelers in the first round or the Colts in the second round. The Steelers matchup only occurs if the Patriots win out and Kansas City wins over Cincinnati, while the Steelers knock off Detroit.
New Orleans Saints (3-12) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5), 1 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
If Tampa Bay wins, they are set as the #3 seed in the NFC race, as they will be NFC South champions and win the tiebreaker over the Giants on the basis of conference record.
A loss could possibly eliminate them, but it would be highly unlikely as they defeated Washington earlier this season and Dallas would have to win on strength of victory where they are 4 wins behind Tampa Bay. Basically all three NFC East leaders and Tampa Bay would have to finish 10-6.
Washington Redskins (9-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-9), 4:15 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
If the Redskins win, they’re in. If they win and the Giants lose, they’ll win the NFC East. But because Tampa Bay beat the Redskins earlier this year, there’s no way Washington could be higher than a #4 seed.
If the Redskins lose, they’ll become huge St. Louis Rams fans because they’ll need the Rams to beat Dallas later that night in order to make the playoffs.
St. Louis Rams (5-10) at Dallas Cowboys (9-6), 8:30 p.m. Sunday (ESPN)
The final game of the regular season is only meaningful if Philadelphia wins earlier over Washington – otherwise they are both playing for pride.
So there’s 7 teams in each conference vying for 6 playoff spots. At the moment, their order is:
AFC:
1. Indianapolis Colts (have won AFC South with a 13-2 record)
2. Denver Broncos (have won AFC West with a 12-3 record)
Both of those teams will get a bye through the opening round.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (have won AFC North with a 11-4 record)
4. New England Patriots (have won AFC East with a current 9-5 10-5 record)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (have locked up a wild card with a 11-4 record, 2nd in the AFC South)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (currently have a 10-5 record, 2nd in the AFC North)
On the outside but still alive:
7. Kansas City Chiefs (currently have a 9-6 record, 2nd in the AFC West)
If the playoffs were held by the current standings, Indianapolis and Denver would get byes, Jacksonville would play at New England, and Pittsburgh would play at Cincinnati. I think this is the way things will shake out anyway after next week.
NFC:
1. Seattle Seahawks (have won NFC West with a 13-2 record)
2. Chicago Bears (have won NFC North with a 11-4 record)
Both of those teams will get a bye through the opening round.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (lead NFC Sourth with a 10-5 record)
4. New York Giants (lead NFC East with a 10-5 record)
5. Carolina Panthers (currently have a 10-5 record, 2nd in the NFC South)
6. Washington Redskins (currently have a 9-6 record, 2nd in the NFC East)
On the outside but still alive:
7. Dallas Cowboys (currently have a 9-6 record, 3rd in the NFC East)
If the playoffs were held by the current standings, Seattle and Chicago would get byes, Carolina would travel to New Jersey to play the Giants, and Washington would be at Tampa Bay. Again, I think this is the way things will work out next week. But the team with the toughest game to me is Carolina, so it could be 3 NFC East teams in the playoffs.
Another interesting guessing game to me is who plays at what time and which day. The TV networks split the first-round coverage three ways. ABC gets the two Saturday games and FOX and CBS take care of Sunday’s. I’m not sure who picks the games covered, but I think FOX and CBS get their preferred games.
So let’s say the matchups above are the ones that occur. Here’s my prediction of the TV schedule.
Saturday (January 7th):
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 4:30 p.m. (ABC)
Washington at Tampa Bay, 8:00 p.m. (ABC)
Sunday (January 8th):
Carolina at New York Giants, 4:30 p.m. (FOX)
Jacksonville at New England, 8:00 p.m. (CBS)
I’d like that schedule if it panned out. I especially hope that they do play the late Sunday games, so I can watch bowling beforehand!
There was another thing that happened today on account of the games played. Those results almost locked up the 2006 schedules for my two favorite teams, the Lions and the Browns. There’s only one question left for each schedule.
Lions 2006 opponents will be:
Home: Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, and Atlanta.
Away: Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Arizona, St. Louis, New England, New York Jets, and the 3rd place NFC East team (currently Dallas but possibly Washington).
I predict right now that the Thanksgiving game will be Miami at Detroit. The other turkey day game will be Washington at Dallas.
Browns 2006 opponents will be:
Home: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and most likely the New York Jets (unless the Jets win both their remaining games, then the Browns would host Buffalo in 2006.)
Away: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Oakland, San Diego, Atlanta, Carolina, and Houston.
The great thing about Baltimore winning tonight is that it knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs (since I hate the Viqueens) and it assured Cleveland of getting the “easier” fourth place schedule even if they kick the shit out of the Ravens next week (which I hope they do.)
Of course, Green Bay losing earlier tonight did the opposite for the Lions – instead of easier games against New Orleans and Philadelphia, the Lions will get two teams who will finish at .500 or better this year in Atlanta and the NFC East team.
But right now the combined record of Detroit’s opponents for next season is 113-127. The teams of the NFC North get a big advantage playing full slates against two weak divisions (NFC West and AFC East) next season.
Cleveland’s opponents combined are 124-116. This is mainly because the AFC North draws two tough divisions for most of its games (AFC West and NFC South.) So all four teams are in the same boat, but it may hurt them if the Browns are in the playoff hunt next season.
It will be interesting to see what happens next week. Hopefully things will work out best for teams I want to get into the playoffs.
I’ll update this tonight as needed if New England runs into trouble with the Jets.
Premonition or coincidence?
On September 29, the Chicago White Sox beat the Detroit Tigers 4-2 on Detroit’s home field of Comerica Park to wrap up the AL Central title. Less than a month later, they celebrated a World Series championship.
Earlier today, the Cincinnati Bengals routed the Detroit Lions 41-17 to clinch the AFC North title at Detroit’s Ford Field. Will there be a repeat performance? I’m not sure I could stand that.
It’s truly odd how a city with four professional sports teams could have two that are so good (Red Wings and Pistons, who have 6 championships between them in the last 16 years) and two that are so wretchedly horrible. And of course, the bad ones are in the sports I like (baseball and football.)
I guess there’s no way I could be called a fair-weather fan, can I?
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