A tourist’s view of CPAC (from an insider)
As most conservatives (and a few who aren’t) know, this weekend marks the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC for short) in Washington, D.C. For those of us who can’t be there, blogger Robert Stacy McCain (The Other McCain) gives us a brief flavor of the hubbub:
I’ll grant that my political convention experience is limited to those involving the Young Republicans or Republican Party, and only on a state level at that. Something like CPAC could quite well overwhelm the senses, sort of like a local TEA Party rally (even one with chicken-suited protesters) was in no way a match for the 9/12 rally I attended a couple years ago. Definitely a difference in scale there.
It’s also a reminder that political necessity has allowed a cottage industry of sorts to spring up. With well over 100 sponsors, co-sponsors, and exhibitors there’s no shortage of marketing being perpetrated at the confab.
But on the other hand it’s obvious CPAC would be quite the place for networking, and certainly many of those bloggers who are more well-known than I thus far are represented there on ‘blogger’s row’. (Who knows, maybe I can work my way into CPAC ’13 with a little tip jar rattling, or better yet more advertising revenue. And you can help by spreading the word!) McCain’s video reminds us that there are a large number of like-minded people working on our behalf, too. It’s a comfort to know this.
Friday night videos – episode 59
Another edition of this long-running series is upon us, and the star doesn’t need rehab! Let’s see what we’ve got this time.
The recent CPAC event was a gold mine of video inspiration for conservatives. For example, Human Events interviewed Ann Coulter before she made her remarks.
Not to be outdone, Townhall.com latched onto Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann for her take.
And on it went, as both entities catalogued dozens of interviews there.
Since the last time I did this, a number of videos have looked at the battle between TEA Party stalwarts on one side and Big Labor on the other, in Wisconsin and elsewhere. I have four different videos on the subject, beginning with Wisconsin’s protest.
Americans for Limited Government has its take on the Madison protests, then covered the event in Annapolis.
Expanding on the coverage was Renee Giachino and CFIF’s Freedom Minute.
But there’s one more protest which comes from inside the Wisconsin state house.
Sore losers. Wonder what would happen if Maryland Republicans adopted the same style of tactics?
This is different and a humorous take on overbearing nanny state governance from CEI, who is usually good at this sort of thing.
I don’t wear makeup but I sure don’t drink coffee with soy milk either.
Okay, there’s no music video this time because next week will be an all-music edition. So that’s it for this edition of FNV.
Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll (again…yawn)
To the surprise of few, Texas Congressman Ron Paul beat out a slew of Republican candidates to win the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC for short) straw poll, a traditional close out event for the gathering. His 30% of the vote bested other so-called frontrunners Mitt Romney (23%), Newt Gingrich (5%), Tim Pawlenty (4%), and Sarah Palin (3 percent.) It was Paul’s second CPAC win in a row; last year he ended Mitt Romney’s three-year winning streak.
But bear in mind that the poll only counted a total of 3,742 ballots; by comparison, Wicomico County accounted for 8,902 Republican primary votes in 2008. Moreover, Paul’s Campaign for Liberty front group was a key promoter of the event, so the results weren’t completely surprising.
Straw polls can be notoriously fickle, too. Remember back in September 2007 when Duncan Hunter won a Texas straw poll? By the time Texas actually had a say in the matter, Duncan Hunter was long gone from the presidential contest. (Too bad, because he was my personal choice.) While his campaign was one of notable conservativism and attracted backing from luminaries like Gen. Chuck Yeager, WorldNetDaily‘s Joseph Farah, and columnist Ann Coulter, Hunter disappeared from the race shortly after the New Hampshire primary. (Perhaps Hunter simply ran four years too soon, but there’s no indication so far he’s looking for a repeat in 2012.)
Even the Ames Straw Poll, which is seen as a kickoff to the Presidential race because of its Iowa location, hasn’t been a good prognosticator of results. Out of five such events, only twice (Bob Dole in 1995 and George W. Bush in 1999) has the eventual GOP nominee been the winner of this bellweather event. Mitt Romney won the straw ballot in 2007 but didn’t even win the state’s caucuses five months later.
So it would appear that Ron Paul, despite running strongly in a caucus-style situation, wouldn’t have a great chance of winning the GOP nod. After all, this would be his third time around the block should he choose to run – besides the 2008 campaign, he ran as the Libertarian Party standardbearer in 1988 – and he would almost certainly be the oldest candidate in the field since he turns 76 in August. Another strike against him is that most states have winner-take-all primaries, although Republican Party rules this time around push those states to the back of the electoral line.
But there are a number of ways that Paul can have a role in the race, even if he doesn’t win or even come anywhere close to victory. Consider the impact of the TEA Party this time around.
It’s a group that wasn’t politically active in 2008, which served as the end of the era of so-called compassionate conservatism. While this new course of conservativism was designed to appeal to the big tent of moderate voters the result was an ever-expanding government, and Republicans disgusted with the excesses of the Bush years stayed home in droves on Election Day. The only excitement in the McCain campaign turned out to be the selection of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee; picking the Alaska governor may have been the only thing to save McCain from a Goldwater-like electoral slaughter by Barack Obama.
Yet despite the fact only two years have passed since that nadir, the political landscape has been irrevocably changed by the ascension of the TEA Party, with the proof being the 2010 midterm elections. There’s no need to recount here the entire rise of the TEA Party, but it’s a group where Ron Paul’s acolytes have certainly found a home. Add to that the evidence from 2008 that Paul can be a powerful and convincing fundraiser, and it shows the financial firepower and grassroots support should be there for a reasonable run at the brass ring.
This election will be a showdown between establishment Republicans who favor the predictability of a Mitt Ronmey and the TEA Party irregulars who could throw their support behind Paul initially and make or break the candidacy of whichever populist conservative eventually emerges as Ronmey’s foremost challenger for the nomination.
In time, Ron Paul could become a dealmaker, with his small but loyal following moving squarely behind another darkhorse candidate like Herman Cain, Jim DeMint, or Gary Johnson. (It’s a sure bet that Donald Trump is not on that list.)
But at this early stage, Paul and his legions can bask in the glow of a straw poll neatly set up to make him look good. We’re still nearly a year out from actual voting so every Republican with a pulse theoretically has a shot at the nomination. Most of the likely contenders are working hard behind the scenes building a campaign team while being coy about their intentions in public.
Still, in a time where conventional wisdom has evolved into a contest of who can most completely upset the apple cart in the quickest time, we can’t just dismiss the renegade Texan. The CPAC results prove Ron Paul has a role to play in this process, with the question being only what frontrunners like Romney and Palin will do to accommodate his diligent supporters.
Republicans divided
At a time when the political winds should be at their back the Republican Party may be ill-poised to make the electoral gains conventional wisdom and history dictate they should at this fall’s midterm elections.
Nowhere was this more evident than at last weekend’s Conservative Political Action Conference, better known by the acronym CPAC. One case in point: Rep. Ron Paul, who showed outstanding fund raising ability but few votes in the 2008 Presidential campaign, won 31% of the vote in a straw poll of preference for the 2012 Presidential nomination. The 76 year old Texas Congressman beat out such luminaries and former candidates as Mitt Romney (who had won the previous three CPAC straw polls), Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee.
Huckabee was also critical of CPAC, an event he skipped for the first time in several years, noting that the gathering had taken a more libertarian turn and focused less on conservative social issues. He also pointed out that the numerous TEA Parties had taken some of the luster off CPAC – however, over 10,000 participants registered for the event, making its 37th edition the largest ever.
There’s no question the TEA Party movement, which began with rallies about a year ago and became popularized by a nationally televised rant from CNBC correspondent Rick Santelli, has affected the GOP over the last year. While these newly-minted political advocates helped secure Chris Christie’s and Bob McDonnell’s victories in their respective New Jersey and Virginia races for governor and financially put Scott Brown in a position to be elected to the Senate, they also created a rift in the New York 23rd Congressional District race, allowing a Democrat to win there for the first time in over a century. Certainly this movement has caused GOP Chair Michael Steele no shortage of headaches during the first half of his two-year tenure.
Of course, Democrats have taken notice and are attempting to use this rift to their advantage. In Nevada, embattled Senator Harry Reid received some help as a group billing itself as the Tea Party placed a candidate on the November ballot. Organizers of the actual TEA Party movement in Nevada claim they know nothing about candidate Jon Ashjian or the ten people who are listed as the Tea Party’s slate of officers. Yet the group obtained the required 250 signatures and filed the requisite paperwork under the Tea Party moniker. Reid needs the third-party assistance as recent polls show he trails two of the leading GOP contenders, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, by double-digits.
With a mindset of fiscal conservatism and dislike of President Obama’s agenda, those who comprise the TEA Party movement seem like the Holy Grail of supporters for the Republican Party. But many in the GOP establishment dislike the libertarian streak present among TEA Party participants while social conservatives like Huckabee fret their pet issues will continue to get short shrift. And TEA Party protesters themselves dislike many Congressional Republicans who supported unpopular Bush-era policies and entitlements, dismissing them as “Democrat-lite.”
Perhaps herding cats would be an easier task, but to win in November the Republicans will have to walk the tightrope of appeasing their existing base while integrating the TEA Partiers by appealing to their fiscal side. But TEA Partiers don’t mind the Republicans being the “party of no” because they fear the effect of President Obama’s statist policies, so standing firm in opposition and not heeding the siren song of “bipartisanship” with the unpopular Obama agenda may be the key to turning over Congress this fall.
Michael Swartz, an architect and writer who lives in rural Maryland, is a Liberty Features Syndicated writer.
With a personnel change at LFS, apparently they are holding on to these for far less time. This cleared on Tuesday – tomorrow you get last week’s op-ed.
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