Bachmann’s turn is over (but Perry’s isn’t after all)
Well, it was fun while it lasted. The monoblogue kiss of death has claimed another victim, Michele Bachmann.
After gamely trying to convince herself and others the fight wasn’t over last night, apparently she slept on it and “decided to stand aside” this morning. This was the statement on her website:
I will be forever grateful to Iowa and its people for launching us on this path with our victory in the Iowa Straw Poll. While I will not be continuing in this race, my faith in the Lord God Almighty, this country, in our republic, has been strengthened. As I have traveled around Iowa, and the country, I have seen the very best in America, our people. And I will always believe in the greatness of them and the greatness of our God.
And, of course, I am deeply grateful to our entire campaign team, here in Iowa, in South Carolina and everywhere. I have no regrets. We never compromised our principles and we can leave this race knowing that we ran it with integrity and that we made an important contribution.
Thank you, God Bless you.
At this time, she hasn’t made an endorsement but presumably her decision was hastened in part by the necessity to begin her campaign to retain her Congressional seat – a campaign which has already drawn her GOP opposition and perhaps may place her in another Congressional district, as the DFL (their version of the Democratic Party) redistricting plan does. She also remains as the titular head of the TEA Party Caucus.
So the old adage that there are only three tickets out of Iowa may yet prove almost true, as the list of contenders gets whittled down to six: Newt Gingrich (4th in Iowa), Jon Huntsman (7th, but did not campaign there), Ron Paul (3rd in Iowa), Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. (The latter two essentially tied for first.) Fifth-place finisher Rick Perry was going to “reassess” his campaign, but perhaps Bachmann’s decision allowed him to stay in the hunt.
This hasn’t been much of a campaign for conservatives. Many would have liked to see Sarah Palin run, while others pined for a TEA Party favorite like Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana. Other names tossed around were Senator Marco Rubio and Congressman Allen West of Florida, and Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, all reliably conservative.
But many conservatives coalesced around the lesser-known Herman Cain until a series of unfounded allegations of marital misconduct and sexual harassment knocked him out of the race. Others have been in the Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann camps early on and stayed during the frequent ups and downs.
Now we have fewer but certainly not better choices: Mitt Romney will forever have the albatross of ushering in the precursor to Obamacare in Massachusetts and has the perception of being the “establishment” choice in an era of anti-establishmentism. (Come on, he’s been endorsed by John McCain – how much more of a milquetoast, reach across the aisle pander can one get?) Likewise, Newt Gingrich is the consummate Beltway insider who never really left Washington once he left the House.
Rick Santorum is the darling of the social conservative group – and that’s an integral part of our cause. But Rick won’t be the fiscal conservative we need and hasn’t always shown fealty to the cause of limited government – one can ask Pat Toomey about that. (Yet for everything Santorum has said he seems to have a manner of parsing his words later. I call it saying what he thinks will get him elected.)
Jon Huntsman started out turning his back to the TEA Party movement and his idea that anthropogenic climate change is real is a disqualifier. And then there’s Ron Paul. If being President didn’t involve a lick of foreign affairs he would be my guy, but the Constitution is not a suicide pact.
And while Perry is back in, will this post-Iowa misstep work the same as John McCain’s late suspension of 2008 campaign efforts in order to address the economic crisis? After that he never recovered in the polls.
That’s all folks. That’s what we now have to choose from, unless there’s somehow a brokered convention and some white knight rides in to save us from ourselves. Certainly any of the above would be an improvement over the current occupant of the Oval Office, but I somehow get the gnawing feeling that we’re leaving a huge missed opportunity here.
But Rome wasn’t built in a day, either, and to undo nearly 100 years of damage to the Republic will take more than four. The trick is just getting started on the task.
The first real move
With apologies to Fred Karger, Herman Cain, and former Louisiana governor Buddy Roemer, the GOP field will be getting its first heavyweight. Today Newt Gingrich announced his own Presidential exploratory committee.
Over the last year I’ve watched a failure in leadership, and have spent a lot of time thinking and praying about taking the first step. I am writing you to ask for your advice, as Callista and I consider whether or not I should run in 2012.
What I need to do right now is listen to and learn from people all across America. I need to be certain that if I run, my candidacy will have the support it will need to make a positive difference for our nation. However, I can’t do it alone. What I am hoping you will do is help me and support me during this exploratory process.
I have asked a lot from you over the years. In return you have humbled me by demonstrating your talent, energy, and financial sacrifice that reflect how deeply you and others like you, care about our nation. You are an indispensable part of helping me decide what to do next, and I have to tell you, I need you now more than ever before. If I run, this will be the single biggest challenge we’ve ever faced together.
With Newt joining this not-so-crowded field, this will likely mean a slew of the other probable contenders will be making their own decisions shortly (as in by month’s end) so as not to let Gingrich get too much of a lead in fundraising and exposure. In particular, those who are considered among the field’s lesser lights will likely need to jump in shortly while someone like Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney could wait a bit longer.
Since a couple other legislators (Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and South Dakota Sen. John Thune) have taken a pass on the race, Gingrich could be one of the few Washington insiders to make a run. However, most of his Beltway experience of late has come as a political gadfly as the last election he won came back in 1998. He served in the House for nearly 20 years and was Speaker of the House from 1995-98.
The 67 year old Gingrich will also be a generation removed from the incumbent, although several other contenders are also in their sixties (including the three aforementioned with exploratory committees.)
So now the chess game can begin as the other pieces will be placed on the board and arrayed against the Barack Obama re-election machine.
Cain raised to top in GOP poll
The former Godfather Pizza CEO pulled it out in the end, but a widely split GOP Presidential poll here drew votes for nearly twenty possible contenders. This goes to show that…we need to see just who will enter the field for sure, as Cain is the first reasonable contender to establish an exploratory committee.
This is how they finished:
- Herman Cain (former Godfather Pizza CEO, radio host) – 10 (12.82%)
- Gary Johnson (former New Mexico governor) – 9 (11.54%)
- Chris Christie (New Jersey governor) – 8 (10.26%)
- Ron Paul (Congressman from Texas, 2008 Presidential candidate) – 8 (10.26%)
- Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House) – 7 (8.97%)
- Sarah Palin (2008 VP candidate, former Alaska governor) – 6 (7.69%)
- Rudy Giuliani (2008 Presidential candidate, former NYC mayor) – 5 (6.41%)
- Michele Bachmann (Congressman from Minnesota) – 4 (5.13%)
- Tim Pawlenty (outgoing Minnesota governor) – 4 (5.13%)
- Mitt Romney (2008 Presidential candidate, former Massachusetts governor) – 3 (3.85%)
- Donald Trump (businessman) – 3 (3.85%)
- Mitch Daniels (Indiana governor) – 2 (2.56%)
- Jim DeMint (Senator from South Carolina) – 2 (2.56%)
- Paul Ryan (Congressman from Wisconsin) – 2 (2.56%) – write-in
- Rick Santorum (former Senator from Pennsylvania) – 2 (2.56%)
- George Allen (former Senator from Virginia) – 1 (1.28%) – write-in
- Mike Pence (Congressman from Indiana) – 1 (1.28%) – withdrew
- John Thune (Senator from North Dakota) – 1 (1.28%)
- Haley Barbour (Mississippi governor) – 0 (o%)
- Mike Huckabee (2008 Presidential candidate, former Arkansas governor) – 0 (0%)
If you look at your top 6 candidates in this poll, you’d find the TEA Party carried a great amount of influence along with the libertarian wing of the GOP (who would tend to support Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.)
But would all of them be viable? Time will tell, but if you look at the top contenders from 2008 there’s little desire for a rewarmed candidate. Since I don’t consider Ron Paul as an ‘establishment’ candidate, the top votegetter among the group was Rudy Giuliani with 5 votes. Even combining the other 2008 aspirants (including Paul) they collected just 16 votes, which is barely 20 percent of the total vote. Mike Huckabee was shut out.
The only 2008 names which seem to have support are Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, who didn’t run for the top job four years ago but was added to the ticket just prior to the GOP convention. She polled reasonably well in this trial, but those who believe the nomination is hers to lose may want to think again.
Over the next month or two we’ll likely see the field shake out a bit as some of the bottom-feeders (and maybe a top name or two) decide to take a pass. The remainder of the contenders will likely begin getting their teams together for the busy times one year hence.
Well, there goes my vote…
I haven’t updated my sidebar poll to reflect this, but last night Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana announced he would sit out the 2012 Presidential race. In a letter to supporters (and reposted at the Indianapolis Star website) Pence announced:
In the choice between seeking national office and serving Indiana in some capacity, we choose Indiana. We will not seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.
The “we” he is apparently referring to is his wife and family, but the decision by Pence will certainly dampen the spirits of at least a few people who were backing him on various Facebook groups and other conservative activists.
But in the long run, the decision makes sense. In our nation’s history, only three men have ran as a major candidate for President as a sitting member in the House, and just one succeeded (President James A. Garfield in 1880.) The last was Rep. John Anderson of Illinois in 1980, and he drew single-digit support as a breakaway Republican in President Reagan’s win. (By the way, Anderson ran as a centrist so you can see how well squishy moderates do against conservatives.) Aside from Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich, who had both ran for President on previous occasions, neither of the other 2008 candidates who ran as House members (Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo) lasted long in the process.
On the other hand, running from a Governor’s seat has launched the national political career of four of our last six Presidents – Barack Obama and George H.W. Bush are exceptions. Since Pence is only 51, he has plenty of time to learn to govern on an executive level and could benefit from his predecessor (and current Indiana governor) Mitch Daniels.
So it’s not a complete surprise that Pence sits this one out, although I’m disappointed that my vote in the poll (yes, I’m the lone Pence vote at the moment) is thrown away. But the field for the 2012 Republican nomination needs to begin to form and who’s taking a pass is just as important as who decides to jump in.
Isn’t it a bit early for this?
Well, regardless of the fact the survivor of the process won’t know the final result for another 21 1/2 months, the polls have begun for the GOP nomination in 2012, with the winner most likely taking on President Obama that November.
Today Rasmussen released a poll which showed Mitt Romney has the early lead for the GOP nomination, with 24 percent replying they prefer Mitt at this nascent stage. Sarah Palin netted 19% while Mike Huckabee picked up 17 percent. The top contender who didn’t run in 2008, Newt Gingrich, had 11 percent while national newcomer Tim Pawlenty finished under the “undecided” (10%) with a 6% score. Ron Paul and Mitch Daniels rounded out the field.
One weakness in the Rasmussen Poll is that they somewhat arbitrarily picked the seven contenders, yet they point out that the leaders at this stage rarely end up with the nomination. As I recall, at this time four years ago we were supposed to have a rematch of the abortive 2000 New York Senate race between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Hillary was the last person standing between Barack Obama and the 2008 Democratic nomination, but Rudy was an early casualty in the GOP race.
This is notable about the methodology, though:
The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary.
In other words, they rely on an open primary of sorts. More tellingly:
Romney, Palin and Huckabee are essentially in a three-way tie among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Those who characterize themselves as somewhat conservative and moderate/liberal have a clear preference for Romney.
Yet Palin has the lead among TEA Partiers, and there’s no real way of knowing just how much influence they’ll have over the GOP nominating process in states with both open and closed primaries.
New Hampshire is a state with an open primary, and a straw poll was conducted there over the weekend – 273 Granite State Republicans scattered their votes among a total of 20 candidates. It’s not particularly surprising that Mitt Romney won, but 35 percent isn’t all that overwhelming considering he comes from a neighboring state and is a name well-known to “establishment” Republicans. Ron Paul was a distant second with 11 percent.
However, if you look at the candidates who could be considered the “darlings” of the TEA Party (Paul, Palin, Michele Bachmann, Jim DeMint, Herman Cain, Mike Pence, and Gary Johnson) you get just as much support as Romney drew – they add up to 37 percent. Once the TEA Party can coalesce around one or two candiates, the race will be joined.
It’s pretty amazing to think that only one of those mentioned (Herman Cain) has even taken the step to form an exploratory committee – the rest are still considering if and when to jump in. But surely over the next few months the final field will emerge, and it will be fun to see how the race shakes out.
Friday night videos – episode 37
Once again it’s time for the interesting stuff I run across in the course of a week. Let’s begin with a video you may have already seen. I’m putting it up because it’s a case of a Congressman who thinks he’s above everyone else.
Let’s hope he’s not above his opponent after the votes are counted Election Day. Let’s also hope that the subject of the next video has to turn over her Speaker’s gavel in January. Human Events is moving quickly into the realm of video – this is the first of two I use from them and it features one of my favorite Congressmen, Rep. Mike Pence.
Speaking of slimy and dishonest politicians, the subject of the next video is our very own governor, Martin O’Malley. Bob Ehrlich calls him out on a radio ad the O’Malley campaign recently produced.
The slime theme continues as I turn your attention to the Deepwater Horizon disaster and its handling. First is the assessment of Obama’s performance from a man I respect (and would have voted for had he survived long enough in his Presidential primaries,) Steve Forbes.
That was the second Human Events video. Another video from Americans for Limited Government details the first 45 days after the accident.
I vote for the second option myself. The next one is something a little different, and considering it was forwarded to me from political gadfly Daniel “the Wig Man” Vovak, isn’t something I would have looked for. But this could be a nice little comedy.
Last but not least is the local band Vivid Season and their take on Seether’s ‘Remedy.’ I throw it in because I like the song.
Once again, thanks for following this week’s edition of FNV and it should be back next week!
Friday night videos episode 27
Hey, two weeks in a row! How about that? Let’s see what I have this week.
I guess we have enough anger out there over the Obamacare bill (boy did I get an earful in one Facebook forum.) Let’s try a more amusing look at the pitfalls of Obamacare from a group called TalkPAC.
And Rep. Mike Pence is right – it’s time to condemn those who turn to violence to oppose Obamacare, but it’s also time to end the smears!
On the other hand, Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak may be the most reviled man in America, particularly for pro-lifers. Here’s one reason why – he wasn’t really a firm vote against Obamacare.
Yet I thought the focus for Obama now was going to be on jobs – didn’t you? Producing our own energy resources would fit the bill.
The are jobs in the legal community, but do you ever get tired of these ambulance chasers pitching the legal lottery of having a dread disease pay off? Bob McCarty did.
Let’s transition to the music portion of FNV with this politically-charged song. A little more country than I like, but the lyrics are sound.
Now it’s time to rock. Last weekend at Marina’s up in Blades, Delaware I recorded my friends from Semiblind doing this little ditty.
This post is timed so you can enjoy it, then head over to Pickles Pub in Ocean City and enjoy Semiblind as headliners of the 8th Annual Spring Luau – Semiblind goes on at 1:00. (Why do you think I do my FNV posts in advance most of the time?)
Hopefully I’ll get more good video tonight for use in future FNV episodes.
Friday night videos episode 26
Doing this real time tonight, so let’s see what I have. Three guesses what the main subject is, first two don’t count.
Then again, perhaps I can deem this post already done – isn’t that what the House wants to do?
And here’s the epitome of sleaze part two, courtesy of the National Republican Congressional Committee:
And if that weren’t enough, the GOP came up with sleaze part three on the part of Democrats:
Finally, a voice of sanity: Indiana Congressman Mike Pence.
There are other things going on, though. This is an admirable effort by the Sunlight Foundation to bring government back into the open.
And this last one is just for inspiration for my friends heading up to Washington, D.C. tomorrow morning. I already had plans for the day, but I’ll be there in spirit.
It’s a good way to close this 26th edition of FNV. Well, actually a good way to close it out would be to announce they’ve dropped Obamacare and Ava Aston was coming here. Maybe by next time.
Friday night videos episode 25
Bringing back the FNV franchise again after a week off, so let’s see what the extra week has given me to work with.
Lots of video on the health care debacle, as you might expect. Pollster Scott Rasmussen talks to the Washington News-Observer on the upcoming midterm elections and about how unpopular Obamacare really is:
It wasn’t too popular among this group either. My blogger friend Bob McCarty (who lives in that area) covered the counter-protest to President Obama’s health care show in St. Charles, Missouri.
If I didn’t put this on when it first came out, I sure missed out. This edition of FNV will be graced by the common sense of Rep. Mike Pence, perhaps my favorite member of Congress.
But the Democrats do reveal the facts about their health care bill.
Speaking of leading Democrats, in a couple weeks we’re going to see the third edition of the TEA Party Express, which begins in Searchlight, Nevada (Harry Reid’s hometown.) Mark Williams of TPX3 wanted to have a conversation with MSNBC’s Dylan Ratigan but you can see how the left expresses “Anger in America.”
And if you’re interested in saddling up and heading out west, they have an interesting lineup to start their tour – wonder how many will be there for the other stops?
Let’s finish the political end of FNV with something humorous. We can laugh about this now that this half of the globe is actually warming (with a corresponding cooling on the other side – funny how that works, huh?)
Now the fun part. This comes from one of my favorite regional bands and was recorded live at the Trocadero Theater in Philadelphia (unfortunately, not by me.) Hailing from Smyrna, Delaware, this is 13:1.
If you go to their website, crank out ‘No Goodbyes.’ (Feel free to do so with their other songs if you wish, too.)
With that, we put another FNV in the books. That was fun.
The Spending Limit Amendment
Earlier this morning I participated in a conference call with Rep. Jeb Hansarling (R-TX) and Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN). They are two of the three initial sponsors of a possible Constitutional amendment called the Spending Limit Amendment (H.J. Res. 79), a proposal to limit federal spending to 20% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This number was arrived at because that’s a rough average of federal spending vs. GDP over an extended period.
Their argument falls in a number of categories ranging from dire economic straits to lost productivity to a national security threat. In the call, Hensarling noted “we believe we have to act now” and that he’s “not naive about the fact 5,000 amendments to the Constitution have been offered but only 27 ratified.” Instead, “what we hope to do is start a national debate on the size of government.”
Added Pence, “we have come to the conclusion that we need to introduce a new force,” that force being one of changing our “charter.” He also made the oft-noted point that “as government expands, freedom contracts.”
A number of different bloggers asked questions; I happened to be one of them. My question related to the fact that this seemed to me a weaker version of the balanced budget amendments proposed in the early 1990′s. Congressman Pence argued that this was “not a weaker version” but “a focused effort” on reining in the “runaway spending on steroids” going on today. In their estimate, running a small deficit but only spending 20% of GDP was preferable to having a balanced budget consuming 40% of GDP.
On an earlier question, the pair agreed that the BBA debate ”had an impact” on spending immediately after it was considered.
There’s a lot more to the roughly 40-minute call, but since I’ve been promised the recording later today I can let you be the judge. Suffice to say that this should be a great issue to use in the 2010 campaign and they hope the TEA Party movement embraces the proposal, but they agreed this will be “a multiyear effort” and warned that, left unchecked, in 20 years our spending will place us in the similar position Greece faces now.
It reinforced my belief that Pence and Hensarling are “keepers” when it comes to a “throw the bums out” mentality. You’ll enjoy hearing what they have to say.
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