The very unofficial poll

Since it seemed to me to be sort of an unfair fight and a point was made, I closed my poll a couple days early.

It’s obvious that two campaigns have enough supporters (and programming savvy, since I know it can be done) to game the system in such a way that they’ll do well. If this were an actual scientific survey it’s obvious the top two wouldn’t get 98% of the vote as they did.

But here’s how this poll turned out:

  1. David Craig – 2,153 (52.95%)
  2. Larry Hogan – 1,831 (45.03%)
  3. Brian Murphy – 29 (0.71%)
  4. Bob Ehrlich – 15 (0.37%)
  5. Charles Lollar – 15 (0.37%)
  6. Marty Madden – 9 (0.22%)
  7. Blaine Young – 5 (0.12%)
  8. Pat McDonough – 3 (0.07%)
  9. E.J. Pipkin – 3 (0.07%)
  10. Michael Steele – 3 (0.07%)

Compare this with a straw poll recently done at the Maryland YR Convention, where among those I listed on my ballot David Craig won, but with just 25 percent. He was trailed by Michael Steele with 21%, Larry Hogan at 13%, Blaine Young at 8%, and Charles Lollar and Brian Murphy at 4 percent. Marty Madden and Pat McDonough got no votes.

I suspect that if someone actually did a real, scientific poll with these ten names on it Michael Steele and Bob Ehrlich would be the top two and it would comprise about 50 percent of the vote. That’s simply based on name recognition at this point, and not any substantive discussion of issues.

The next tier would feature David Craig, Larry Hogan, and Brian Murphy, and it would get about 30 percent of the vote.

The bottom tier would be led by Young, with McDonough, Pipkin, Lollar, and Madden bringing up the rear.

But neither Ehrlich nor Steele has made any overtures toward running in 2014, and that small 20 percent or so who would like a fourth Ehrlich run are very, very likely to be disappointed. In the meantime, David Craig is all but officially in and has been talking like a candidate for months; meanwhile Larry Hogan has a 12,000-strong Change Maryland group as a possible support base. Brian Murphy obviously has some residual 2010 support to count on as well.

The others have name recognition, but only in one part of the state: Young in the Frederick area, McDonough around Baltimore, Pipkin on the Upper Eastern Shore, Lollar in southern Maryland, and Madden around Howard County. With the exception of Pipkin in 2004, none have embarked formally on the rigors of a statewide race.

Of course, the process is a long way from over since we are still over two years out from the GOP primary, and not everyone mentioned as a hopeful will actually decide to run. My belief is that when all is said and done we will have three and perhaps four viable candidates vying for the nomination, since it’s an open seat. But it’s obvious which ones are trying to put their name into circulation as a front-runner.

Doomsday rally quotables from notables

Some of what was said Monday evening in Annapolis:

Delegate Michael Smigiel:

“Did anybody here vote for somebody to create a quarter-billion dollar slush fund for you?” – reaction to a provision in the BRFA called the “Budget Stabilization Fund.”

“They’re telling us to move forward into a tax bayonet, pointed right at the heart of the middle class.”

“We’re going to be one Maryland united against these tax increases that they’re trying to put on us.”

“Only in ‘entitlement math’ is the fact that you’ve got a $700 million increase (but it becomes) a half a billion dollar cut.”

“A triple A bond rating means one thing: you’re willing to tax anybody, any amount, anytime. I would much rather have my freedom, I would much rather our counties have their sovereignty, then to have the burden of having to pay that $35 billion (in teacher pension liability) coming due.”

Introducing Delegate Mike McDermott: “Our next speaker has changed the way things are done in the legislature as far as speaking goes. They had to repaint the walls after Mike spoke the first session because he peeled a little of the paint off.”

U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino:

“Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about how Republicans – we’re this anti-government, anti-tax crowd. Folks, that’s nonsense. You know it and I know it. I will proudly give you my last dollar to fund our fighting men and women overseas…I will proudly fund our police, our fire, our teachers, our court system. But folks, I will be damned if I pay one more dollar to fund a cowboy poetry festival in Nevada.”

“We have all the gifts in the world (in Maryland.) Why are people leaving? It’s not us, it’s them…it’s him (Martin O’Malley.)”

“They like to classify people into ‘us’ and ‘them’, because if they don’t have victims they don’t have anything.”

State Senator E.J. Pipkin:

“(As of Wednesday, when the revenue bills pass) Martin O’Malley is officially the $2 billion governor.”

“One thing (Democrats) can never, ever stop: that’s the idea that we can have better ideas than what’s on the table, and we have the right to put them forward, and eventually our better ideas will win out.”

AFP Maryland head Charles Lollar:

“We have the arrogance of an administration that wants to take more money from you and I…it doesn’t work, you’re wasting more of our money.”

“It’s an issue about taking money from those who create opportunity and trying to give it to those who simply don’t want to create opportunity.”

“Whether it’s five people, 15,000 people, or 500 people – this is our state, this is our country, and you’re not going to take it without a fight on your hands.”

“We created the greatest economy on God’s green earth with sweat equity, an American spirit, and a belief in God that was greater than our own. And now my fear is…my daughters are going to inherit a state that does not understand the American spirit.”

“You cannot pursue happiness sitting on your rear end.”

To Governor O’Malley: “On our watch, you will not be able to continue to raise taxes and sleep peaceably because we’ll stand right outside your window…until you understand this is our state.”

David Craig, Harford County Executive and 2014 candidate for Governor:

“This is actually a doomsday session, not a doomsday budget. I could live with the budget that was proposed.”

“If you look at our history, we were called the Free State. Now we’re the Fee State. I’m surprised they didn’t charge you a fee to come here and stand and listen to this.”

“Please don’t die, because it’s going to cost you twice as much to get your death certificate.”

“We don’t have Democrats in this state – I get along with Democrats. We have ‘monocrats’ in this state. They just want a one-party state so they can run things.”

Delegate Mike McDermott:

“We have a governor that is increasingly putting the burden on our children’s children. Nonstop. It is the kids – today we were inside, and all the kids are taking the tour, and they’re walking around looking at history, and I’m thinking ‘you know what, every one of you poor kids is getting tagged for this.'”

“We’ve got the best schools that debt can buy.”

“When the governor moves you forward, just remember you’re walking a plank. That’s where we’re moving forward on, we’re moving on a plank.”

“Governor, if you’re not going to change your ways – if you’re not going to cut our taxes, if you’re not going to control our spending – then the next time you bring a budget in here, and we strike it, you strike the colors of the state of Maryland and you run up the Jolly Roger! Because this is nothing but a pirate ship! The only thing missing from the Governor and his staff is a patch over one eye and a parrot on his shoulder.”

Delegate Neil Parrott:

“Washington County, I look across the border – I see West Virginia. I see Virginia. I see Pennsylvania. And I see businesses, unfortunately, relocating or locating to those other counties instead of coming to Washington County.”

“We’ve got to stop this tax and spend attitude. It’s out of control. We also need to stop the one-party system in Maryland; it’s not working.”

“One other way – besides just winning elections – that we can change our state is something we haven’t used very much, but we just used it last year for the first time. They wanted to raise our taxes to give it to illegal aliens – that’s what they wanted to do and they still want to do it. Thanks to you all, last year we stopped that.”

“This year, I came to session thinking ‘you know, we’re (in a) $1.2 billion structural deficit,’ which just means this: we came to session thinking we’re spending $1.2 billion more than we’re taking in. That must be Governor O’Malley’s top priority…instead, he spent over half the session pushing through a bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Maryland.”

“This (Congressional districting) map is an example of politicians choosing their voters. We don’t want politicians choosing their voters, we the voters want to choose our politicians.”

Senator Nancy Jacobs, a 2012 Congressional candidate:

“Governor O’Malley does not live in reality. When was the last time this man bought a gallon of gas? Before he was here – on our taxpayer dime – he was in the City of Baltimore and they paid for his gas. When was the last time he bought a loaf of bread, or a gallon of milk? We should put him on one of those game shows and see if he knows the price of any of these things, because I don’t think he does.”

“I always thought that when (O’Malley) said we’ve got to move the state forward, that’s code for here comes another tax.”

“(O’Malley) has higher aspirations and they are costing the citizens of Maryland so he can go to Washington.”

Delegate Cathy Vitale:

“We didn’t pick the cuts. We didn’t select what was going to happen. The doomsday budget was carefully selected to cause you to come back here to fix the problem. Anybody figure out there’s a problem?”

“Decisions were made, it’s time to live with them. Go home.”

Delegate Gail Bates:

“Our beautiful State House dome is made of wood…do you know they don’t have a single nail in that? It was all put together with wooden pegs. Do you know why? There was a tax on nails, and they refused to pay it.”

**********

As far as actual results go, the protest didn’t do much. We’ll get the income tax on those who make a middle-class living, the tax on certain tobacco products, and other “revenue enhancements” we don’t need. But now we have them on record again, and you can bet votes from this Special Session will find their way to the monoblogue Accountability Project.

More endorsements (from the Maryland establishment) for Romney

I didn’t notice this when it came out just before Christmas, but over three dozen more Maryland elected officials made their support for Mitt Romney public, according to the Sun. Rather than the roster of mostly General Assembly members composing the September release, version 2.0 is more focused on county- and local-level officials. One name which jumped out at me, though, was TEA Party favorite and Maryland AFP head Charles Lollar. Aside from the endorsements of District 37 State Senator Richard Colburn and District 37B Delegate Addie Eckardt on the original September list, no new local leaders were added in this go-round.

Conversely, Newt Gingrich also has a key endorsement in Congressman Andy Harris.

But TEA Party leaders seem to be all over the map. I’m one who’s settled on Michele Bachmann after Herman Cain withdrew from the race, while many others prefer Ron Paul, a number like Gingrich, and scattered others have settled into the camps of the Ricks – Santorum and Perry. Not so many like Jon Huntsman or Romney, which makes an endorsement like Lollar’s cause to scratch my head.

Obviously the field will begin to move after Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, with Bachmann predicted to be among the first to go. However, the conventional wisdom hasn’t often been correct in this race and there’s no reason to suspect otherwise. We may yet play a part in it, and by then the question will be whether these endorsements are an asset to a thriving Romney or a liability to all those who went all-in behind the former Massachusetts governor as he limps along in the race.

Finally, a note to my readers: this will be the 451st and final post of 2011 so Happy New Year to all of you! I’m looking forward to an exciting 2012 and many historic and spirit-crushing (for statists and their fellow travelers, that is) victories to celebrate by year’s end!

Will Larry Hogan be a Maryland hero?

Now you know I couldn’t resist some reference to that. But seriously, this group may have some merit as perhaps being attractive to the TEA Party element yet acceptable to the conservative Republican establishment. I’ll let him take it from here:

We need YOU to Change Maryland.

Join the grassroots movement that’s fighting to bring fiscal responsibility and common sense to Annapolis. Change Maryland was born out of the frustrations of average Marylanders who are fed up with politics as usual in our state, want to stand together, and fight back for a change.

Our elected leaders are not solving the problems – they are causing them and making them worse. We’re concerned that Maryland is way off track, headed in the wrong direction and that our very economic future is at stake. It’s time to send a message to Annapolis.

We can’t sit back, accept the status quo, and allow the out of touch monopoly in Annapolis to continue to run our state into the ground with no opposition, no debate, and no checks and balances. It’s time we said enough is enough.

All Marylanders –Republicans, Democrats, and Independents – suffer when the professional politicians and the special interest groups go unchecked and continue to push the same failed ‘tax and spend’ policies. This cycle must stop. We can stop it together.

Together, we can Change Maryland. Real competition, honest debate of the issues, and the competition of a healthy and strong two party system are needed to turn Maryland around. Say no to more spending, more debt and higher taxes.

This isn’t just a fight between the right and the left. It’s a fight between right and wrong. We don’t need partisanship; we need honest leaders in Maryland who will tackle the tough issues. This isn’t about Republicans versus Democrats. It’s more important than that. This is about Maryland’s future, and it’s a fight worth fighting.

The group referred to already has a website; naturally it’s ChangeMaryland.org. This is a pretty solid introduction:

You can’t help but notice the tagline “from Election Strategies.”

So why now? Well, I haven’t asked Larry (although I do believe he checks out this site from time to time) but if I were to hazard a guess it would come from two distinct pieces of information:

The reason these are important is quite simple, really – these two gentlemen either ran for or considered running for Governor in 2010, as did Hogan before he withdrew in favor of Bob Ehrlich. We know that Murphy followed through until losing in the primary (with a little help from the Republican establishment) but Lollar considered the race until he was tripped up by an arcane residency rule. That won’t apply in 2014.

So perhaps part of the reason behind Change Maryland is to keep Larry’s name in the spotlight, although in actuality his name is nowhere on the site. Yet, in looking at Larry’s Facebook page he’s been a one-man promoter for Change Maryland, and that’s how I became familiar with the CM page. I figure he had something to do with its creation, and certainly I don’t have an issue with the message. But you know me: always looking for that deeper meaning.

We’ll keep an eye on the page as it develops, but in the meantime this could be an indication that Larry Hogan’s not through with politics just yet.

Former Congressional candidate Lollar picked to head AFP Maryland

Once outgoing head Dave Schwartz accepted a position with Congressman Andy Harris, the top spot at Maryland’s Americans for Prosperity outpost became available. Earlier this week the group announced Charles Lollar, who ran in 2010 to unseat Steny Hoyer in Maryland’s Fifth Congressional District and briefly flirted before that with a run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, would take over as the state’s AFP head:

Grassroots free-market group Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is pleased to welcome aboard Charles Lollar, Newburg resident, and Marine Corp Officer, as the new Maryland state director.

“Charles has stood alongside Americans fighting for free market ideas right here in the Maryland Free State, and he’s stood alongside American soldiers overseas serving in the US Marine Corp,” said Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity. “We’re proud to welcome him as the leader of AFP’s Maryland state chapter.”

(snip)

“Maryland has the potential to be one of the most economically competitive states in the country,” said Lollar. “The Maryland chapter of Americans for Prosperity is ready to work with its members to urge the governor and legislature to rein in wasteful spending and get a hold of the state’s unsustainable budget.”

Lollar has been active in numerous community organizations. He served on the Executive Board of Directors for the Maryland Chamber of Commerce and is a member of the DC Chamber of Commerce. He is a graduate of Leadership Maryland and Leadership Prince George’s County. ‘

He served as the Chairman of the Maryland Taxpayers Commission, fighting to protect the interests of Maryland taxpayers. Lollar currently lives in Charles County with his wife, Rosha, and their four children.

Certainly Lollar is a dynamic speaker and there’s no doubt he’s conservative. Perhaps the only fly in the ointment when it comes to those who criticize AFP for being too chummy with the Maryland GOP is that Lollar is also a former Charles County GOP Chair and served as the head of former State Chair Jim Pelura’s Commission for Citizen Tax Relief, which looked at state spending in 2009.

(Just as an aside, in re-reading that Ten Questions I had to shake my head at the statement Jim made in the interview, “the party will not endorse any candidate pre-primary.” Obviously that didn’t fly when Audrey Scott took over. You’ll hear more from Jim later today.)

For another vocal critic of the AFP it appears there’s cautious optimism. But I think Charles is going to have to play with the hand he’s dealt insofar as tax rules are concerned. That’s not to say he can’t be a forceful voice for fiscal conservatism and certainly he can use this position to build his statewide profile for a future political run  – as I recall, Charles is only in his early forties so he’s still a pretty young guy politically. We happen to be at a point in the political cycle where education is more important than campaigning.

In my estimation, perhaps the most important job for Charles in the near future is spreading the message of the benefits of fiscal conservatism. Get in front of the Maryland General Assembly and make sure there’s plenty of media in the joint when you speak. If you get the chance to show up to speak to Congress, make sure to say hi to Steny Hoyer (just don’t let him smack you around.)

And at least on a local level, the AFP could use a shot in the arm. Maybe Charles needs to take some time, come down here, and whip up the troops’ morale. He possesses the energy and exuberance that the organization needs in a leader, but time will tell if he was the right choice for what AFP Maryland wishes to accomplish.

Regardless, from what I know about Charles I think he’ll do just fine.

Conservatives in Maryland CAN

In three weeks, we may be seeing the beginnings of the TEA Party moving into its rightful place at the head of the Maryland political table. Yes, we have to wait until 2014 for the next statewide election but the process is moving in the right direction with a meeting of the minds coming up on Saturday, January 8th. Instead of being outside looking in (as they were at the recent GOP convention, where the picture is from) they are the organizers of the event – ironically set in the same locale of the Doubletree Hotel in Annapolis.

Organizers believe it will be the catalyst for future gains.

“To our knowledge, nothing like this has been done before in Maryland,” said Ann Corcoran, Washington County blogger and one of the organizers. “We expect like-minded activists to share ideas and talents, forge alliances, sound the call for action, and give rise to conservative voices so that political competition can thrive in Maryland.”

Added Howard County activist Tonya Tiffany, “We’ll be talking about 2010 campaign lessons, precinct organization, voter fraud, media outreach, running for office as a citizen legislator, and federal pressures bearing down on the state of Maryland. We’re not forming another political ‘group’ (but) trying to network people.” 

With a roster of speakers well-known to conservative activists statewide, this daylong event was set up to give TEA Party faithful and their allies around the state the opportunity to converse and plan a strategy for future political gains. The speakers include:

  • Marta Mossburg, Maryland Public Policy Institute
  • Claver Kamau-Imani, Raging Elephants
  • Anita MonCrief, ACORN whistleblower and creator, Emerging Corruption.com
  • Delegate Ron George
  • Congressman Andy Harris
  • Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins
  • Delegate-elect Kathy Afzali
  • Charles Lollar (2010 Congressional candidate)
  • Robert Broadus (2010 Congressional candidate)
  • Brian Murphy (2010 gubernatorial candidate)

All this (and more) packed into eight hours for a cost of $40, which includes a box lunch. A registration form can be found here, or by contacting Tonya Tiffany at marylandcan@yahoo.com.

Murphy speaks out

It’s about four minutes of commentary, but former gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy had the chance to discuss the recent election with Shari Elliker on WBAL Radio Friday.

There’s no doubt that Murphy paid as much attention to the election results as the rest of us did, and it’s not clear from the conversation that his campaign rhetoric about Bob Ehrlich being beatable wasn’t quite the “I told you so” in retrospect. Critics noted that Bob Ehrlich’s message was a little muddy in their postmortems.

But now is the time to look forward to what is and will be. Martin O’Malley has one more term to serve as governor, and it’s conceivable a number of state Democrats are playing the game of being coy about their 2014 plans while laying the groundwork for a run of their own for Government House. Anthony Brown, Peter Franchot, and Doug Gansler are naturally front and center in that conversation since they have ran and won statewide.

Meanwhile, the GOP side has its own contenders with Brian Murphy probably among them. (He was coy about this in his conversation with Elliker, but one has to believe he’s considering the prospect of seeking an open seat. We’ll see based on how much interaction he has with Republican and TEA Party groups in the coming months.)

But we can’t forget a couple other names.

The old guard establishment may well be represented by Larry Hogan, who began something of a placeholder run for Governor this year until Bob Ehrlich got in.

We also need to consider Charles Lollar, who was the beneficiary of a draft movement last year but was tripped up by residency requirements this time around based on when he first registered to vote in Maryland he was just a few months short of the five years required. Undaunted, he ran for Congress. Unless Democrats decide to push through a ten-year requirement to foil him again, he may well decide to run again IF he doesn’t win a Congressional seat first.

It’s going to be about message, though. With the strong probability of another set of tax increases or expansions for Maryland one has to wonder just how long it will be before the unaffiliated voters and thoughtful suburban Democrats realize that continually funneling more money to the state for fewer and poorer core services needs to come to a screeching halt and eventually be turned around. Given the slow pace of economic recovery, the prospect of a strong economy come 2014 can only be described as a crapshoot at best – people my age may recall that the Reagan recovery didn’t begin until his third year in office and if a Republican takes the White House in 2012 it may take that long to undo the Obama damage (even with a GOP House over his last two years.)

But I’m glad to see Brian Murphy hasn’t gone away. Maybe we should be hanging onto those yard signs.

A challenge to Hoyer

With a spirited battle brewing between Republican contenders Charles Lollar and 2008 candidate Collins Bailey for their party’s nomination, little notice has come to a challenger on Hoyer’s Democratic side.

Andrew Gall, should he be victorious over Hoyer in the primary and dispatch the survivor of the Lollar-Collins election, would become the youngest member of Congress. At 27, Gall’s entire life has been spent with Hoyer being in Congress representing Maryland’s Fifth Congressional District.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)