Maryland Politics – Page 19

54-40…so fight!

Yes, I reach back into the realm of long-forgotten campaign slogans (embellishing one used by President James K. Polk in 1844) because it’s the result of a so-called poll out from the Washington Post. According to their poll, Bob Ehrlich trails Martin O’Malley by that very 54-40 margin. It reflects a similarly flawed Baltimore Sun poll which has the former governor down 52-38.

I don’t believe these polls for a second, and this political observer explains why.

But despite the fact we conservatives have a less than inspiring choice for governor, don’t let these papers fool you into staying home for this election. It’s an age-old attempt to disillusion the conservative voters, and even some so-called conservative pundits like Michael Gerson try to convince us “the wave has crested.” It’s only crested if we believe it is so.

Yet there are signs this frustration has taken hold on a statewide level. Republicans were supposed to be flocking to the polls and couldn’t wait for November 2. But as of this morning 3.09% of Democrats have participated in early voting compared to 2.82% of Republicans and just 1.42% of unaffiliated voters. (On the bright side, the Constitution Party leads with 3.63% participation – too bad they only have 606 voters registered as such statewide.)

But locally the news is better. In seven of the nine Eastern Shore counties the GOP is indeed ahead in early voting, and Queen Anne’s County there’s virtually a tie. (Caroline County is the lone holdout, although the margin in the Democrats’ favor is fairly small.) Maybe it’s because we’re mostly outside the orbit of the Baltimore-Washington media axis, but there seems to be more of that trademark GOP excitement here.

And that’s important because we have local races which need to be won. With strong candidates across the board, we have the opportunity to make the Eastern Shore delegation to the General Assembly entirely Republican – in fact, I recommend it. Why vote for candidates who talk like they’re conservative and pro-business every four years when you can have the 24/7/365 real thing?

If Martin O’Malley wins, we need people in the General Assembly who will tell him to go pound sand with his sure-to-come tax increases, kowtowing to the Obama agenda, and embrace of illegal immigrants as “new Americans.”

Since we’re going to be stuck with Obama for the next two years, we need Congressmen and Senators to place his statist ambitions in check by defunding those things he held dear like Obamacare and the remaining slush fund stimulus while paring away the bureaucratic red tape.

It’s all within reach, and we can make a difference. Let the overconfident I-95 corridor Democrats stay home – we need to fight for what is right in Maryland.

Questions I’d love to ask

Tonight Wor-Wic Community College played host to a District 37 and District 38 Candidate Forum sponsored by the Coastal Association of Realtors and Salisbury Chamber of Commerce. Tomorrow I’ll have more on what the participants said, but a major weakness in the format was soliciting audience questions but only using one (that I was aware of.) It’s too bad, because I had two I thought were good (although one was to be asked of a specific candidate.)

The first question I had was for Jim Mathias and relates to the post I did yesterday. Once again I’ll restate the quote he made in a full-color campaign mailing that arrived at my house:

In the State Senate, (Jim will) push to cut wasteful government spending and reinvest the proceeds in small business jobs and the Eastern Shore.

What I wanted to know from Jim (and certainly other candidates could have added their two cents as well) was what specific programs he considers to be “wasteful spending.” See, it’s one thing to talk in generalities but certainly another to actually propose things to be cut. For all the talk about how communities around the area have to live with less, we haven’t seen all that much effort to do so at the state level.

(Yes, I know some will beg to differ and claim state spending has gone down – but in real terms the budget’s gone up over the last four years, with the federal share increasing.)

The other question I wanted to ask came about as part of the discussion about lowering the state sales tax by a penny on each dollar. I took the figures from memory, but as a ballpark it should be close. Besides, the actual figures matter less than the principle.

The total annual revenue from our state’s sales tax runs about $3.7 billion, and the Eastern Shore is roughly 1/10 of the state’s population, so it stands to reason that 1/10 of the sales tax revenue comes out of here.

Let’s say we could finally place our Eastern Shore merchants on par with Delaware and eliminate the sales tax entirely in the nine counties of the Eastern Shore. I’m curious to see if these candidates would support that, based on the dynamic economic analysis that suggests the additional economic oportunities and jobs created by such a move would end up filling state coffers by more than the $370 million “lost.” Remember, Bob Ehrlich said that increased economic activity and slot revenues would make up the difference from rescinding the penny per dollar sales tax increase, so why not use the same theory here?

So for all of you would-be interviewers and forum hosts, here’s a couple of questions you can ask of the candidates. Tomorrow I’ll discuss this forum, which was way longer than promised but rather interesting.

Friday night videos episode 47

I’m going to warn you now – this may be controversial.

The first video I’m going to feature is in “honor” of the 10-10-10 celebration being promoted by the world’s greenies. It’s been called an “environmental snuff film” and I don’t disagree. But you need to know the mindset of these people.

“No pressure” indeed. These people are mentally ill to think this way. I know that 90% of environmentalists just want clean air and water, and so do I. But I want a balance between our economic interests and way of life too. These people just want their way and don’t care.

Speaking of economic interests – well, where are the jobs, Frank?

Certainly I make no assertion that Frank thinks like those people who did the first video, but he agreed with them when he voted for cap-and-trade. I’m sure he’s just in the 90 percent.

On the other hand, it’s sort of unfortunate that we don’t have our own version of a strong conservative woman in this race. But Frank McCaffrey of Americans for Limited Government takes a look at Maryland LG hopeful Mary Kane in this piece.

But some still don’t get it. I’m not a big fan of ‘gotcha’ journalism, but this guy parrots the line that the wealthy don’t pay their fair share, when in fact they overpay.

And yes, as I’ve explained over the last week in the Daily Times, I support the Fair Tax.

Anyway, as I promised last week, I’m doing two music videos. This week has some heavy subject matter and I need a break, too.

The first one I’ve featured before but I was in the mood for Southern rock, and this is among my most-viewed music videos I’ve done.

The second one comes from the exact same venue (WinterPlace Park) but several months later. Not My Own won the Unicity Festival and hopefully it will take them to bigger and better things.

Usually I feature something heavier from the boys, but as I recall this is one of the first songs I heard out of them and it has a nice sound with the acoustic guitar.

Until next week, that’s a wrap on another edition of FNV. I’m hoping to have more music from this weekend’s Good Beer Festival and its solid lineup.

Comment on another’s post

Subtitled, why bury good writing and research in a comment?

First, let me set this up: Julie Brewington pondered on her site, Right Coast, why Martin O’Malley was leading Bob Ehrlich so widely (11 points) in a recent Washington Post poll. I weighed in with some statistics found on the Maryland Board of Elections website which may point out the poll was an outlier. This is my comment.

A couple points not necessarily considered:

In 2006 the primary voter split between Republicans and Democrats was 29-71 – over 70 percent of voters were Democrats.

In 2010 it was 37-63 R to D, in a state where the actual voter proportion as of the last report was 32-68. Bear in mind that in August 2006 the split was 35-65. (We’ve lost ground over the last four years for a variety of reasons.)

So in 2006 (a year that was terrible for Republicans) they underperformed at the primary ballot by 6 points, leading one to believe that R’s were less than enthused and D’s were excited.

This time we outperformed by 5 points, suggesting the tide has turned. The fact Garrett County, which is the most solidly Republican in the state, led the pack in turnout speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap.

I think you’re citing a poll that will turn out to be an outlier because there’s not a good geographic breakdown and it depends a lot on people who may not show up at the polls anyway.

However, having said that, there was a trend (shown by Rasmussen) of Ehrlich pulling even to barely ahead all spring and into the summer, but the last two polls have placed MOM back in the lead.

**********

Julie does bring up a valid point regarding the Brian Murphy campaign. I have a number of thoughts on that 25% of the GOP vote and what will happen to it.

First of all, I sincerely doubt that many of those voters will vote for Martin O’Malley out of spite. While many were dismayed by the actions of the Maryland GOP in that race, I think that most realize the stakes are great in this election. The fraction of Republicans who vote for O’Malley out of spite probably will be fewer that the votes the Democrats found in Baltimore back in 1994 to push Parris Glendening over Ellen Sauerbrey.

A larger number will choose to leave the Governor’s race blank or vote for either Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian in the race, or Eric Knowles, who represents the Constitution Party. Ironically, this could help one or both secure ballot status for the next four years since they need 1 percent of the vote to qualify as a minor party. But in all likelihood those numbers will subtract out from the Ehrlich column.

Having said that, though, Murphy’s campaign may have served to expand the Republican universe enough that, even if a decent number of Murphy supporters go third party or skip, it will end up being a wash as compared to a scenario where Murphy withdrew and left the field to Ehrlich. Some proof of this lies in how the GOP did 11 points better compared to the expected average because we had a contested primary for Governor – in 2006 we did not.

Yet the vast majority of Murphy supporters accepted the primary results, and will move into the Ehrlich column next month. The $64,000 question is whether they’ll be advocates for Bob or just show up on Election Day, hold their noses, and touch the screen next to the Ehrlich name.

But that difference could also affect races down the ticket, particularly in areas (like the Shore) where the GOP has a shot of picking off some Democratic General Assembly seats. While they can’t expect the same sort of rout we may see on a national scale, there is a threshold of 10 House seats and five Senate seats that could turn the GOP from a cipher to a truly functioning minority party in the Maryland General Assembly.

NOvember arrived today in Fruitland

…and so did an interesting protest. But more on that later.

And despite having to bring the party indoors due to today’s inclement weather, the nationwide bus tour brought along information and enlisted speakers Andrew Langer from the Institute for Liberty and talk radio host Duke Brooks from WGMD-FM.

The bus had already arrived when I did.

I spoke briefly to the driver and was interested to find out that he’s been all over the country with the bus since mid-July. The tour continues with stops in New Jersey and Pennsylvania tomorrow.

After the brief interruption, Joe Collins noted that it was “sad that people are so misguided and so negative.” He apparently also introduced the first speaker, Duke Brooks. I missed the first few minutes of his speech investigating things outside.

I did video of the latter half of his talk, but Duke noted that “no government can avoid a recession.” However, they always seemed to use economic hard times as an excuse to take more control over people’s lives, and “that’s the problem in the first place.” Brooks also exhorted us to “redouble our efforts” as November approached.

Here’s the video of Duke Brooks.

Andrew Langer came up next and reminded us that “AFP gets it.” While the runup to the election is crucial, “after November is most important” because we had to hold the victors’ feet to the fire, whether Republican or Democrat. While the Blue Dogs won the 2006 and 2008 elections by portraying themselves as conservatives, voting with Nancy Pelosi 85% of the time was “unacceptable.”

“Our focus will be on accountability,” he continued, and described the worst parts of government were coming through the regulatory process. For example, regulations which were costing employers $7,700 per employee in 2005 (according to the Small Business Administration) were now costing $10,600 per employee. All told, the “regulatory state” was costing us $1.7 trillion a year, compared to $1.1 trillion just two short years ago. In short, this was the message of the day.

I like how that sign was autographed, too – the picture doesn’t do it justice.

One thing which surprised me was that so few local conservative officeseekers were there. Now I wouldn’t expect Frank Kratovil to show but I thought we’d have a number of candidates and current politicians in the house. To her credit, District 38B Delegate candidate Marty Pusey was at the event solidifying her support.

Two of those yard signs in the back of her car have been transplanted into my yard, and I encourage those of you who live in District 38B to do the same.

And there was a bit of a hullabaloo early on.

As for the chicken and his flock who came over to roost – see if you can make sense out of what they were trying to say since I took a couple minutes’ worth of video.

As near as I could tell, their babbling was about Andy Harris supporting tax breaks for companies to move offshore. But the irony for me (as I pointed out in the video to Chuck Cook, who is the tall, bearded person taping generally to my right) is that being seen in a chicken suit points up their support of overly punitive environmental measures which are driving the poultry industry away from Delmarva. Talk about offshore birds, that’s where they’re going!

Later I joked with them about their support of offshore drilling – hey, if they want to talk about really offshoring jobs here was their chance. But they turned a deaf ear to the logic.

Now, I suppose in the next day or so I’ll voluntarily lower my IQ about a half-dozen points and check out Progressive Delmarva to see how they crow about this latest stunt of theirs. But once this motley crew slinked out of the affair after being mildly disruptive for the first ten minutes or so they went back across the street to the Food Lion parking lot and piled into their cars, festooned generously with stickers supporting Martin O’Malley, Frank Kratovil, and Rick Pollitt, among other liberals. So much for their feigned support of Andy Harris.

At least they were environmentally conscious enough to carpool, I’ll give them that.

Unfortunately, my video of Andrew Langer’s speech is about 4 minutes too long for YouTube and I made the mistake of taking my camera (which does QuickTime format) rather than Kim’s, so I couldn’t edit the video. If I can figure out a way to boil it down I’ll have it for a future installment of FNV.

In the meantime, you can enjoy desperate liberals making utter fools of themselves. We did.

Oh, and the “Now or Never Maryland” tour will be in Salisbury October 22. Let’s see what these guys have for that.

A note to former Murphy supporters

We can watch the train go over the cliff with us still on it, or we can fight to control the locomotive. That’s the difference between Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich.

Voters’ memories are notoriously short and if you asked them right now whether the name Brian Murphy rings a bell, 95% of them will say no.

I’ll certainly grant Bob Ehrlich isn’t my preferred candidate but I’d rather have someone who at least would have conservatives at the table than one who would shut them out. We need to send the message that our continued support is contingent on following through on issues near and dear to us.

In the meantime, we also have work to do reforming the MDGOP. Taking our ball and going home simply means they can continue business as usual. The more talk about going third party or skipping the election, the more ability the establishment has to marginalize those of us who choose to fight from within.

I left that comment at Ann Corcoran’s Potomac Tea Party Report. Obviously there’s a subset of people who believe that all is lost after Murphy’s defeat (as well as that of Jim Rutledge) and are willing to toss their votes out the window to support a third-party candidate. Once upon a time millions of Americans (including me) did that for Ross Perot and we got Bill Clinton.

There’s no doubt that Brian Murphy was a more conservative candidate, nor do I dispute the claim that the Maryland GOP put its finger on the scale big-time when they waived Rule 11 to back Bob Ehrlich.

But all of these people need to understand that we only lost one battle in a war that’s going to be fought long-term. If we fade back into the woodwork nothing will change. Those of us who are fighting the battle from within would be the ones left high and dry, smacked back into oblivion by the machine that we’re trying to fight this guerrilla struggle against.

If we stay at the table and Ehrlich wins, he’s going to owe us bigtime. I don’t know if Bob can run again if he wins, but conservatives would be in the far better position with a Republican in the governor’s chair and enhanced numbers in the General Assembly than we would with Martin O’Malley back in charge. Remember, Martin O’Malley represents a party whose Senate leadership vowed:

(GOP leaders are) “going to be flying high, but we’re going to get together and we’re going to shoot them down. We’re going to bury them face down in the ground, and it’ll be 10 years before they crawl out again.”

That’s how they operate in this state, my friends. Martin O’Malley would sooner give up his guitar than do something for conservatives. I’ve known this for awhile.

If diehard Murphy supporters leave or vote third party, we are ceding the hard-fought gains we’ve won in this battle and it’s going to be twice as hard to get it back in a war where the enemy holds all of the high ground. I don’t care for compromise, and certainly it would have been great to see success like conservatives saw in Delaware. But we still have a lot worth fighting for, and staving off extinction through redistricting is a serious prize to me. Democrats have plenty of plans to carve Republicans right off the electoral map.

Sure, it would be nice to get the Libertarians and Constitution Party their 1% to stay viable for another term. But let it come out of the other guy’s total.

Some thoughts on Brian Murphy

Even before yesterday, most people knew I was a Brian Murphy backer. I strongly endorse his bid for Governor. Yet all but maybe a handful of readers may wonder where I was yesterday and the long duration between posts.

Yesterday afternoon I had the opportunity to attend a rally for Brian Murphy supporters outside Annapolis. The reason I did so was to gather material for a Pajamas Media story I worked on this afternoon, and I got to speak to activists from all over who strongly support Brian and may only provide the most tepid of backing for Bob Ehrlich. I can’t say that I blame them, even though I’ll vote for Bob in November if he wins tomorrow (provided he doesn’t do anything absolutely stupid in the next seven weeks like embrace the Obama agenda.)

In the aftermath of this election cycle, though, it’s clear one of two things will be true:

We will have a Republican governor, or;
We will have the last Maryland GOP standardbearer be a two-time loser, whether in the primary or general election.

The last time we had a Republican governor, one of his cronies ran the party and just about ran it into the ground. (Now his wife is on the Ehrlich ticket as LG – talk about cronyism!) It was up to a man who I didn’t initially support but now have all the respect in the world for, Jim Pelura, to try and straighten out that mess. Pelura served as the master of ceremonies yesterday and had this to say about Brian in his introduction.

One can debate the merits of Pelura’s tenure as GOP head, but they can’t debate his integrity and principles. I happen to think part of the reason he was ousted and certain large donors held back was because he didn’t allow the party to be completely hijacked as a vehicle for re-electing Bob Ehrlich. Is there bad blood between Pelura and the Ehrlichs? Most likely, but there have been enough people who dislike each other personally but work together for a common goal that I dismiss that angle of sour grapes directed at Jim from the Ehrlich camp.

But let’s say the unthinkable happens and Martin O’Malley is re-elected. Obviously the Ehrlich supporters will be screaming that it’s all Brian Murphy’s fault, but I’m hoping they instead put on their big-boy pants and realize that Ehrlich obviously alienated a significant portion of the electorate, most likely the conservatives who backed Murphy. Sure, Ehrlich talked like this early on (back in April) but he’s never done a mea culpa for overspending during his term.

I just hope the Ehrlich backers recall the ‘no whining’ admonition if he loses. But it’s also up to Murphy backers to consider that they at least can’t ignore the downticket races, even if Murphy loses tomorrow and they can’t stomach the thought of either Ehrlich or O’Malley in office. For me, it’s not quite a ‘lesser of two evils’ race (because Bob Ehrlich does have some good points) but there is that potential for a lot of people.

But the bigger question is whether the Ehrlich era is over if he loses. Does Brian Murphy become the next rendition of Bob Ehrlich, and will the party become a machine to put Brian Murphy in the governor’s office for the open seat come 2014? Somehow I don’t see that happening because Ehrlich is the “establishment” candidate, and they’ll find someone else to play the role if and when Ehrlich departs from the stage. I’d be shocked if Brian Murphy is invited to speak at a Lincoln Day dinner next year. (Now, if he could bring along Sarah Palin that may become a ‘go’.)

I know Brian Murphy’s stances, and I think he would be a great governor. But there are those out there for whom he needs to earn their respect, and if he loses I hope he doesn’t take too long to back Bob Ehrlich. We will need all hands on deck this fall. However, it’s also up to Ehrlich to regain the trust he lost, and tacking to the center right away isn’t going to make it with a lot of his base. If those people stay home in November we have a problem.

Consider it a real life application of Murphy’s Law.

Party uber alles?

Let me begin by saying that I’m quite aware Audrey Scott, as MDGOP Chair, is paid to elect Republicans. But is this the right message to put out?

Sometimes you have to stand for something besides not being the other guys. Oftentimes we make our decisions based on the letter after the name, not realizing that there’s supposed to be underlying principles inherent within.

I think Brian Murphy understands this too. He criticized Scott in a blistering radio interview message:

For the last 100 years, the Maryland Republican Party has been irrelevant, and so they’ve just said, ‘Well, the only way to win is to look like Democrats.’ No, the way to win is what Ronald Reagan did: to stand on principle.

[The GOP] is really having an identity crisis. Over the weekend, there was a telling video, and it was really pretty disgusting, quite frankly. The reason I’m running is because we’ve lost sight of our principles in our party. If the Republican Party is one thing, it is a party of principles. It is a party of conviction and passion. Our Founders were all men and women of principle and passion.

There was this Rule 11 thing, where the Republican Party, most folks don’t know about it, they don’t really care. It’s this little group that decided to endorse Ehrlich, even before he filed. It was basically a vote against me. But that was a symptom. And this video, this weekend, was the real disease. It was the Chairman of the Republican Party… she said, ‘Party first. Party over principle.’ Which shows she doesn’t understand the Republican Party is the party of principle. That’s why we’re losers in Maryland.

Now, I already have heard the argument about Brian being a Democrat for awhile, yadda yadda yadda. Perhaps what attracted him to switch was the fact our party has good conservative principles and he felt he was the best person to lead us in that direction? To dismiss him is to dismiss a number of other leaders on a more local scale who simply were fed up with politics as usual. A church wouldn’t turn away someone who wants to convert, so why should we?

Unfortunately for establishment Republicans, I give a damn about principles too. One thing I demand is a fair shake for all candidates and let them stand or fall on their own merits, not being Obamalike and clearing the playing field for a chosen candidate. Yes, I’m proud to be a Republican but the “R” next to the name doesn’t guarantee a vote when I think they fall short on principles. That’s why I am unabashedly a Murphy supporter – on the other hand, Wayne Gilchrest was one of those types who wasn’t what I considered a good Republican to be. Fortunately Bob Ehrlich has just enough good points that I can support him in the general election if he doesn’t lose the primary. Chances are he won’t.

That being said, though, in the next term the GOP is going to need to have the whip handy in order to corral Ehrlich in the right direction and make sure he follows through on those areas conservatives supported him for. That means crossing the aisle to accomodate Democrats is verboten – let them come to us. If Ehrlich wins he makes the budget and that’s part of the political Golden Rule – he who has the gold, rules. So screw the Democrats – they’re more than happy to do it to us when they’re in power. It’s our contention as conservatives that following our philosophy of limiting government will lead to more prosperity and freedom for all, not just chosen special interests.

More than likely it’s too late for Murphy’s words to make much of an impact for this election – votes are already being cast and, with our party (led by Ehrlich) now hypocritically embracing the early voting we fought against, Brian Murphy has fewer minds to change. But there is still hope for the next cycle, and if Bob Ehrlich wins and becomes the titular leader of the Maryland GOP he shouldn’t be allowed to just expect the party to back his every move or become a vehicle for his re-election. We already tried that once and we see where we were led.

(On a side note, perhaps it’s time to consider something our neighbor to the south does and limit governors to one four-year term. While we’re at it, 12 years in the General Assembly is more than enough.)

It’s what makes your local Central Committee elections almost as important as choosing the best Republican candidates to follow the party’s conservative, limited-government philosophy through to a seat in the General Assembly. I happen to be running for one of those seats, and I’ll be thankful and humbled if Wicomico County voters place their trust in me for another term.

But it’s more important that our party conveys a message that principles matter and the people should have their say in electing a candidate. This Rule 11 fiasco wasn’t quite as covert as my birth state’s practice of regularly trying to avoid contested primaries in statewide races by cajolery but it still has the stench of a backroom deal written all over it. In an era where more people than ever are fed up with ‘politics as usual’ and don’t think there’s a significant difference between the two parties, there’s no need to make my job as a Republican harder by providing more evidence those perceptions are correct.

Gazette article reasonably fair

Perhaps you didn’t know this – I know Julie Brewington picked up on it after I shared this among my Facebook friends – but I was quoted in yesterday’s Gazette regarding the Maryland GOP’s Rule 11 controversy which has been simmering since May. Reporter C. Benjamin Ford also spoke to fellow blogger Ann Corcoran of the Potomac Tea Party Report, who had the better quote, “What the tea party movement has opposed is this whole concept of sneaky politics, the backroom deals.”

That was my objection from the start. Why should three people make the decision best left to the voters of the First District (for Andy Harris) or the whole state (Bob Ehrlich)? Not saying they aren’t good candidates, but some may prefer the alternatives presented. It’s true that we may not to be able to “tip the scale” but we can send a message.

I just wish he’d quoted me right – I’m “barely left of militia” according to my Facebook page. I do say that tongue-in-cheek to an extent but I’m quite conservative in my outlook. So read the article and see whether you agree.

Circling back around

Back in March I reviewed a book by Terri McCormick about rough-and-tumble Republican politics called What Sex Is A Republican? and while I give the book a fairly decent review I honestly didn’t think anything further of it until last night. (It’s probably got my record for longest post title since I placed the whole thing in the headline.)

However, it just so happened that my review was linked by Aaron Biterman at the Republican Liberty Caucus blog – unbeknownst to me Terri had tossed her hat back into the ring for the Wisconsin’s Eighth Congressional District seat she sought in 2006, losing in the primary.

I’m going to quote a small portion of Biterman’s remarks in the post, then come back around and ask a question.

(Eventual 2006 Republican nominee John) Gard and the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $2 million to defeat her in the primary. McCormick received 32 percent of the vote and established herself as a Republican maverick. The 32 percent she received represented the segment of Wisconsin voters frustrated with George W. Bush’s policies, pissed that the Republican Party Establishment refused to allow the independent-minded voters of the district decide the primary, and excited about Terri McCormick’s message.

Establishment Republican John Gard lost the General Election to Steve Kagen in 2006 and 2008. Some Wisconsin Republicans incorrectly blame Terri McCormick for his defeat in both election cycles.

Now, if I substituted the name Bob Ehrlich for John Gard, Brian Murphy for Terri McCormick, and Martin O’Malley for Steve Kagan and the results were similar, how much do you want to bet (rhetorically, of course, since they don’t allow internet gambling) that Brian Murphy will be a scapegoat too? I think Brian Murphy could very well get 32 percent or more, at least in some areas of the state.

In truth, I didn’t percieve in my reading of McCormick’s tome that she was exceptionally conservative – and perhaps it was because she was writing it to a more general audience of people who are at the beginning stages of getting politically involved – but in light of the fight she put up to bring charter schools to Wisconsin she at least came down on the right side of a key issue.

In the meantime, I may have another book review to write. In truth, the purpose behind writing the first one was twofold: one, I was asked to, and secondly I intended it for publication at Liberty Features – but apparently they stopped doing book reviews just as I read McCormick’s book. But someone saw it and I suppose that’s what counts.

Perhaps once the primary season wears down and I have fewer campaigns to track I’ll have a review of the book I just got from fellow Red County writer (and Marylander) Ron Miller. I’ve read the beginnings of it and the book is promising. In the meantime, it looks like sort of a day off from campaign stuff as it’s Friday the Thirteenth so I’ll enjoy it.

Candidate Wednesday: August 11, 2010

The first edition of Candidate Wednesday begins with Democratic Wicomico County Council at-large hopeful Mike Brewington, features second Republican U.S. Senate candidate Jim Rutledge (in the famous school bus interview), and wraps up with House of Delegates District 38A officeseeker Mike McCready.

Just in watching the interview I was struck by the ease at which Mike delivered his message, which is sometimes rare in a first-time candidate. I can understand his ideas about being a Democrat, although I disagree about them being “for the people” anymore. He obviously would fall under the category described as a “Reagan Democrat” given his conservative fiscal views.

However, he fell a little flat in some of the answers. While you can’t get too wonkish in a ten-minute interview, he needs to realize that, yes, it will be tough on these workers that are furloughed but job creation doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game: losing a public sector job may be the stimulus for creating private sector work on a large scale. And Mike never answered the question on the parking lot, although he brought up a good point regarding the gas tax.

The interview with Jim Rutledge was done on his Crisfield-bound bus for the Tawes Crab and Clam Bake – sometimes you have to take your chances when you get them. But the problem with doing the interview in such a location is that the background noise is too distracting to effectively allow Jim to convey his message. And that’s too bad because Jim makes a lot of good critical points about legislation passed (financial reform, Obamacare, etc.) with the help of his Democratic opponent, Senator Barbara Mikulski.

This interview with Mike McCready was one of the earlier efforts and it seemed that they were still working out the bugs – for example, the whole interview is slightly out of focus. But I liked the line of questioning for the most part and if McCready was trying to establish himself as a conservative he did more or less a decent job – perhaps aside from the aspect of toll roads and raising bridge fees.

I just wish Matt had thought to ask an obvious question I would have asked – how do you think you’ll get along with the liberal majority of Democrats in Annapolis? Certainly he’ll be one of the few who supports gun rights and cares about the fate of farmers and watermen in that caucus.

That brings the first edition of Candidate Wednesday to a close – hopefully if you’re a voter you’re now a more informed one.

Thoughts on Murphy v. Ehrlich

In looking up and down my Facebook page recently, I’ve noticed that the tenor of the GOP primary for governor has changed markedly. Seems to me those people who were huge Ehrlich supporters are beginning to get a little nervous and looking over their shoulder at the allies of Brian Murphy. I have no idea why since they’re so certain Bob will win the primary, right?

Of course, the attitude also extends to their treatment of Sarah Palin after she endorsed Murphy. I realize that some of the bloom has come off the rose in the last two years but when you see a screeching harangue telling Sarah to “stay out of Maryland politics” you would think Murphy just got the coveted Barack Obama endorsement. I’m sorry she didn’t pick your guy but I didn’t complain about Mitt Romney meddling in our state and endorsing Bob Ehrlich.

Indeed, I have a preference for Brian Murphy, having now heard both speak in my presence during this campaign. (We’ll count our Lincoln Day Dinner too even though it occurred a few days before he made it official.) I say preference because Bob Ehrlich is also far superior to Martin O’Malley.

But the primary is and should be about VOTERS selecting the best candidate. Needless to say, the revocation of Rule 11 for Bob Ehrlich and Andy Harris upset me greatly. In the case of Harris, at least it can be said that Rob Fisher knew going in that Harris was going to run again since he announced the fact way back in January (Fisher jumped into the race in April.) On the other hand, when Murphy got in his chief opponent was Larry Hogan. Yes, the rumors were flying that Bob would return but he took his sweet time drawing it out.

Instead, the Maryland GOP establishment had planned this summer to be a coronation tour for Ehrlich. The convention was all about him, but as I wrote back then:

Yes, it can be argued that Murphy has little chance but at least he put his name on the line while someone was dithering about which race to run in – if he would run at all. I think we owed him the opportunity to speak, or else be neutral in the race and find a different keynote speaker.

Looks like there’s a little competition here despite the best efforts of the Maryland Republican Party establishment to pick winners and losers.

Then again, when it comes to the Maryland Republican Party establishment – well, we don’t see eye to eye too often. Longtime readers may recall this fiasco, but remember how well that whole McCain thing worked out? Hey, that brings me back to Sarah Palin!

(Oh, and just for the record my initial choice for the GOP nomination was Rep. Duncan Hunter of California. McCain was WAY down the list. Maybe if they listened to me then…)

Obviously when Sarah Palin endorsed Brian Murphy the reaction from the Ehrlich camp was to belittle Palin as much as possible. Bob Ehrlich as much as said so in his remarks on the situation and Mark Newgent of Red Maryland, a bastion of Murphy-bashing, darkly intoned that Palin’s endorsement was an inside job by Martin O’Malley. Mark, I respect your work but you’re giving Martin way too much credit for being too clever by half. Do I need to come back and set you folks straight?

As I said at the start, I have nothing against Bob Ehrlich – if he wins the primary, he’s got my vote in November (presuming he does nothing totally foolish like veer to O’Malley’s left on issues.) But I think it would be enlightening to see the two of them battle it out in a debate and let the GOP voters decide who’s best – of course that will never happen because the Ehrlich campaign would be afraid to give O’Malley ammunition regarding Bob’s record (hint to Ehrlich campaign: I’m sure they’ve already dug it up and will use it. They’ve already gone negative!)

There’s no doubt I’d like to see a Republican Party united as of September 15. In the end, it seems to me that all this sniping by Ehrlich backers is insurance in case the worst happens and Martin O’Malley beats him in November – hello, scapegoat, thy name is Brian Murphy. But they better not say that around me because I’ll call them on it.

Seldom is a primary season remembered by voters in November – the lone exception may be Andy Harris in 2008 and guess what? It was because the GOP was divided by a bitter primary and a sour grapes loser. I don’t see Brian Murphy or his supporters playing that role and I damn well hope Ehrlich’s backers don’t play that game if Murphy wins. But the Maryland GOP may be complicit because they shielded Bob from having to work as hard on building his campaign over the summer.