Comment on another’s post

Subtitled, why bury good writing and research in a comment?

First, let me set this up: Julie Brewington pondered on her site, Right Coast, why Martin O’Malley was leading Bob Ehrlich so widely (11 points) in a recent Washington Post poll. I weighed in with some statistics found on the Maryland Board of Elections website which may point out the poll was an outlier. This is my comment.

A couple points not necessarily considered:

In 2006 the primary voter split between Republicans and Democrats was 29-71 – over 70 percent of voters were Democrats.

In 2010 it was 37-63 R to D, in a state where the actual voter proportion as of the last report was 32-68. Bear in mind that in August 2006 the split was 35-65. (We’ve lost ground over the last four years for a variety of reasons.)

So in 2006 (a year that was terrible for Republicans) they underperformed at the primary ballot by 6 points, leading one to believe that R’s were less than enthused and D’s were excited.

This time we outperformed by 5 points, suggesting the tide has turned. The fact Garrett County, which is the most solidly Republican in the state, led the pack in turnout speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap.

I think you’re citing a poll that will turn out to be an outlier because there’s not a good geographic breakdown and it depends a lot on people who may not show up at the polls anyway.

However, having said that, there was a trend (shown by Rasmussen) of Ehrlich pulling even to barely ahead all spring and into the summer, but the last two polls have placed MOM back in the lead.

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Julie does bring up a valid point regarding the Brian Murphy campaign. I have a number of thoughts on that 25% of the GOP vote and what will happen to it.

First of all, I sincerely doubt that many of those voters will vote for Martin O’Malley out of spite. While many were dismayed by the actions of the Maryland GOP in that race, I think that most realize the stakes are great in this election. The fraction of Republicans who vote for O’Malley out of spite probably will be fewer that the votes the Democrats found in Baltimore back in 1994 to push Parris Glendening over Ellen Sauerbrey.

A larger number will choose to leave the Governor’s race blank or vote for either Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian in the race, or Eric Knowles, who represents the Constitution Party. Ironically, this could help one or both secure ballot status for the next four years since they need 1 percent of the vote to qualify as a minor party. But in all likelihood those numbers will subtract out from the Ehrlich column.

Having said that, though, Murphy’s campaign may have served to expand the Republican universe enough that, even if a decent number of Murphy supporters go third party or skip, it will end up being a wash as compared to a scenario where Murphy withdrew and left the field to Ehrlich. Some proof of this lies in how the GOP did 11 points better compared to the expected average because we had a contested primary for Governor – in 2006 we did not.

Yet the vast majority of Murphy supporters accepted the primary results, and will move into the Ehrlich column next month. The $64,000 question is whether they’ll be advocates for Bob or just show up on Election Day, hold their noses, and touch the screen next to the Ehrlich name.

But that difference could also affect races down the ticket, particularly in areas (like the Shore) where the GOP has a shot of picking off some Democratic General Assembly seats. While they can’t expect the same sort of rout we may see on a national scale, there is a threshold of 10 House seats and five Senate seats that could turn the GOP from a cipher to a truly functioning minority party in the Maryland General Assembly.

Author: Michael

It's me from my laptop computer.

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