This is sort of what I envisioned for our Lincoln Day Dinner next year; of course the problem may be that our usual February date is too far away from the state’s primary date and by the time we get to the primary the field may be winnowed down to perhaps two or three contenders who will be looking for votes in larger counties.
But Howard County was fortunate enough to secure a presidential candidate for their Lincoln Day Dinner the other night. Herman Cain made an impassioned pitch in his stump speech.
What I’m sharing is parts 2 and 3 of a video produced by O.P. Ditch of Elkridge. The introduction of Cain in part 2 is by our state’s RNC national committeeman, Louis Pope.
It gets me to wondering whether we’ll see any of the presidential contenders for our state convention this fall, wherever they decide it will be held. I’m not holding my breath that any of them will come to Salisbury, but you never know. (Historians: when was the last time a active Presidential candidate came to Salisbury? Ever?)
Obviously at this stage Cain wasn’t talking a whole lot about policy, but more about philosophy. And he knew he’d have a friendly crowd which isn’t too happy about the leadership in Washington. Fair enough. Given his rags to riches story, I think he’s a good addition to the race and perhaps we are seeing our next President in this video. But I’m chomping at the bit for more contenders to get into the race and start outlining their platforms so I can see who to get behind.
There is one other comparison to draw, though. Our state Red, White, and Blue Dinner on June 23 will feature Newt Gingrich for the second time in three years. The minimum charge there is $200, compared to the $75 minimum Howard County charged for hearing Cain speak. (In 2009 the state party charged $125 to see Gingrich.) I guess becoming a candidate means you cost more?
If our GOP gets more active thanks to the in-state tuition for illegal immigrants petition drive, perhaps we can see more candidates trolling for votes all over the state. I’m sure the folks out Garrett County way would like to see a little love from the GOP contenders too.
But kudos to Howard County for having the foresight to snag Cain as a speaker. I’ll bet they did quite well.
If you’ve been reading monoblogue a long time – I know a lot of you haven’t, although a surprising number are longtime fans – you may recall that I determined who I’d support as my 2008 nominee in the summer of 2007 after a series of posts which covered candidate positions issue-by-issue on items important to me. They, in turn, were one extension of an early project of monoblogue called the 50 year plan. There I discussed my ideas on a whole range of issues which face our nation, and a second extension of these has been a book project I’ve worked with off and on over the last three years. (So maybe now I should call it a 47 year plan.)
Anyway, having been again exhorted to figure out which candidate I would like to see secure our Presidential bid, this post will serve as the announcement that the process will begin again later this summer. While I put my sidebar on the candidates up yesterday, I’m going to wait for a month or two to start the scoring process again in order to devote enough time to research positions and determine how I’ll grade each candidate. (And this includes Democrats, too – I can’t vote for them but I can compare their stances for my TEA Party friends who haven’t abandoned the Democratic Party yet.)
To give you an idea how the point system worked, these were the criteria I used in 2008:
Property rights (5 points)
Second Amendment (7 points)
Election/Campaign Finance Reform (9 points)
Trade/job creation (11 points)
Education (13 points)
Veterans affairs (15 points)
Energy independence (17 points)
Health care/Social Security (19 points)
Taxation (21 points)
Fiscal conservatism (23 points)
Immigration (25 points)
The Long War (27 points)
The total also included single-point intangibles on various issues, with my 2008 winner being former Rep. Duncan Hunter and his 82 points. By comparison, eventual nominee John McCain was last among Republicans with 18 points.
Undoubtedly, as a nation, our priorities have changed – and so will my list. I’m going to combine a couple areas and streamline this process to 10 different subjects. Also, the point totals will change so that the perfect candidate will have 100 points, with a maximum of three given for intangibles.
So the 2012 monoblogue endorsement will be based on the following formula:
Election/campaign finance reform (3 points)
Property Rights (5 points)
Second Amendment (7 points)
Education (8 points)
Long War/veterans affairs (9 points)
Immigration (11 points)
Energy independence (12 points)
Entitlements (13 points)
Trade/job creation (14 points)
Fiscal conservatism/taxation (15 points)
Add in the possible three points for intangibles, and a ‘perfect’ score is 100. On the other hand, deducting points is also possible so the ultimate in bad candidates would rank at minus-100.
Since I already have a project to do over the next few weeks (the monoblogue Accountability Project) I’ll likely get started on this after Memorial Day – this will also give the campaigns some chance to put out their issue positions. (Thus far, Herman Cain and Gary Johnson seem to have the most comprehensive positions listed on their respective sites.) But today serves as a good heads-up for summer reading.
And, by the way, I’m going to make a little time over the summer for updating my maunuscript too. Anyone know a good publisher out there looking for a surefire best seller? Okay, how about a tome from a first-time author?
Maybe someday you’ll see it on Amazon.com or at your local bookstore, but in the meantime it’s a diamond in the rough which needs polishing. That’s what I’ll devote some time to doing.
As I lamented this time last year, it’s hard to have an indoor convention with this sort of thing going on right outside. Maybe it was a few degrees too cool for taking an ocean dip, but the ambience was certainly present.
There are some who arrived home last night and perhaps needed a calming scene like that, but I’ll get to that in due course. Let’s talk about the new leader of the band.
In his report Friday evening (which I can share because there was other press in the room, or so he said) Alex Mooney conceded fundraising was “harder than I expected” but he was still making several calls a week. On that front, Newt Gingrich would be lending a hand for the Red, White, and Blue dinner – a date still needs to be finalized for that. Alex also commended a number of people for stepping up and having house parties, but cautioned party regulars that they shouldn’t read anything into who the featured guest is (he used a recent event with Mike Huckabee as an example) because the idea is to raise money for the party and not a campaign.
Speaking of the Presidential race, there wasn’t much talk about that at the event. Only one candidate had anything there placed by a supporter.
On the other hand, Friday night was filled with statewide candidates trying to gain a foothold in their races. I caught up to Corrogan Vaughn – who formally announced yet another U.S. Senate bid at the event – before he changed into more formal clothes.
Another Senate candidate who hosted a hospitality suite was Thomas Capps, with the stylish green stickers marking the location.
Capps is pictured here with MDCAN’s Tonya Tiffany.
Yet another name being tossed into the 2014 mix is onetime gubernatorial candidate Larry Hogan. Will he try again?
I don’t think he was discussing that with Central Committee member Karen Winterling. Instead, he was in charge of a popular Change Maryland suite.
In fact, poolside was the place to be.
However, the host county wasn’t left out as they had their suite upstairs.
But hospitality suites weren’t the only way groups made their presence known. Down in the lobby we had the opportunity to sign the referendum petition for SB167. In his Chairman’s Report to the Executive Committee, Mooney believed “we need to use that petition to referendum more often.”
The advertising was even mobile, as I spotted this car Friday afternoon as I arrived.
Another group was comparing the upcoming General Assembly Special Session to a circus.
They even asked for predictions on what would occur this fall. I think I checked almost every box.
But Friday wasn’t all play. We had an afternoon seminar before the Executive Committee meeting, and while many attended a reception for 2010 candidates there were others plotting strategy, like the group backing this concept.
I was spending a good portion of that time with my Rule 11 resolution co-sponsor Heather Olsen trying to guess what would happen during the Saturday convention.
But allow me to backtrack a little and discuss Bob Ostrom’s report to the Executive Committee, for he was the chair of the bylaws committee formed in our last meeting. And while he was “extremely pumped” about the debate which was sure to occur – he believed it would continue to be “informative” and “helpful” – others worried about the effect certain changes would have on their organizations. For example, both the Teenage Republicans and College Republicans were lobbying for an Executive Committee vote while others thought the Maryland Federation of Women should be stripped of theirs.
Yet we were told by Bob to “keep it in perspective,” as our next priority would be the fight over redistricting.
Unfortunately, after a series of informative seminars (including an elected officials discussion I’m saving for a future post) we had to meet for the convention. Obviously this was the calm before the storm.
Early on, Montgomery County planted its flag, both figuratively and literally.
The idea of the agenda was to go through a series of reports while the Credentials Committee made sure we had the requisite number of participants. So we heard Chris Rosenthal give a mixed bag of a Tresurer’s Report – hey, at least the line of credit is paid off.
Then it was Joyce Terhes’ turn as National Committeewoman, and she warned us “we can’t fight about bylaws…bylaws don’t win elections.” That sentiment was echoed by National Committeeman Louis Pope, who told us “we have one job, to elect Republicans…all that defers from that takes up resources.” And even as Alex Mooney in his brief Chairman’s report talked about a plan for victory on the local level which was based on the Wisconsin plan, we were about to discuss…bylaws.
Well, actually we had to get through the rules first. As in previous practice, we adopted rules in three parts: the noncontroversial Special Rules 1-6 went first, and were approved by a voice vote. After that, it got tricky.
Special Rule 7 was a lengthy rule which limited the time for the convention to three hours, the order in which bylaw changes were proposed, and the voting method to be used. There was a motion to strike Section C (the time limit) but it failed on a voice vote despite my objection. Because I objected to the time limit, I was probably the only one to vote against adopting the rule in the subsequent voice vote – but when you have principles, you follow them through.
But the Special Rule 7 uproar was nothing compared to Special Rule 8. Since Montgomery County had seemed to adopt a strategy of talking the voting method to death – and had almost 50 people who could have spoken against it – the motion to limit debate was the penultimate vote on the matter. It needed a 2/3 majority (ironically, using the one man, one vote system) and it passed 178-87 – almost exactly the 2/3 needed. After the question was called, Rule 8 was passed 189-76 and all subsequent votes used the modified voting system.
So we moved on to the bylaws after clearing out a resolution allowing Caroline County to expand its Central Committee to nine members.
Next up for consideration was what was deemed housekeeping measures, which renumbered the existing bylaws and added provisions termed “non-substantive” – except I felt that the final provision of that, which affected the threshold for approving bylaws in the future, deserved its own discussion (plus I wanted to leave the existing language in since I knew my Rule 11 amendment wouldn’t be heard because of the three hour time limit.) The group unwisely defeated my common-sense move 352-176 (the numbers hereafter are rounded from the decimal places.) They then limited debate by a 452-101 count.
So I was stuck with this so-called “housekeeping” provision, thus I voted against its adoption once we limited debate. Still, it passed 457-68.
But there was yet another twist. In an effort to create both something of value for the time spent and perhaps hasten my bylaw change, a motion was made to adopt the seventh item in line, which was the voting provision. This would enshrine it in the bylaws and make having to adopt it as a rule no longer necessary.
As you can imagine, Montgomery County was up in arms and attempted the same stalling tactics. The vote to limit debate was 443-82 and passage was assured by a 425-98 count as the meeting dissolved into confusion over just what we were voting on – Montgomery County had tried other procedural tricks to run out the clock, but eventually they failed.
Once it was over, they immediately began complaining about their fate to Alex Mooney.
Now, I could be cruel and tell MoCo to “get over it.” But the real result of yesterday’s events was to break up the gang of just a few counties which could run things. While their power is diminished to a degree, the voting results now simply mean large counties need to have buy-in from the smaller ones to get things accomplished, while smaller counties can now have some chance at their own coalition given enough broad-based support (and that’s not a given as Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore often part ways on things.)
And we have a lot on the table. Obviously they never got to my Rule 11 amendment, and since the bylaws committee ceased to exist after the meeting was adjourned, it appears that mine and any other proposed changes will have to go through the normal channels – submitted to the secretary and approved out to the floor by the appropriate committee. So the “star chamber,” the fate of MFRW’s vote on the Executive Committee (and the prospective votes of the other affiliated organizations), and a number of other changes which were hotly debated in Ocean City – well, guess what? We may be discussing them all over again come this fall.
True, these things don’t elect Republicans. But now that we have a voting system in place, let’s focus our efforts on getting the bylaws done this fall because the Spring 2012 convention will have its own election for Delegates to the National Convention. (I just might run again.)
I can’t say this convention was a success personally, but I’m really hoping that Montgomery County collectively puts on their big boy pants and adjusts to its new role as a teammate rather than a power broker. They still have a lot more say than most others, and a lot of work to do within their own borders.
I’ve had a lot placed in my e-mail box of late; fortunately this wasn’t time-sensitive.
It’s a look at how the other half plans to live in 2012:
The accompanying text noted the following, from campaign manager Jim Messina:
I want to show you a quick presentation I’ve been giving to the first staff coming on board here in Chicago, outlining our strategy to win and our overall approach to this campaign.
In the weeks and months to come, we’ll ask grassroots supporters like you to meet with one another and local organizers to take the first steps to victory on November 6th, 2012.
But before we begin meeting in living rooms and backyards across America, it’s important that we communicate with each other about a set of principles for the organization and our overall strategic thinking about how the race will shape up.
The most important aspect is this: Our campaign will be grounded in President Obama’s experience as a community organizer. This notion of ordinary people taking responsibility for the organization at the neighborhood level is not only the way to win, it’s also the way politics ought to work. Our campaign will be an example of innovation and efficiency, but it will also be an example of civic engagement at its best and most rewarding.
(snip)
This plan will evolve as we get feedback from grassroots supporters like you over the weeks and months ahead. That’s already happening — as you know, we’ve already started the process of having one-on-one conversations with people in every state to gather thoughts and ideas, and thousands more talks will take place over this spring and summer.
But this briefing should give you a sense of our current thinking about how we’ll build an unprecedented grassroots campaign to win — with you leading it.
No, that billion dollars Obama plans on raising will lead it – follow the money (if you can.) A billion dollars can slap down a whole lot of Astroturf. While they want to “act like an insurgent campaign,” the ugly truth is that Obama has an abysmal record of lacking accomplishments (save the bin Laden killing, which was in many ways handed to him by his predecessor – you know, that guy he likes to blame for all his problems.) And that thinking will by necessity evolve, based on current events we can’t yet foresee. How do you explain away $5 a gallon for gas, for example – blame the oil companies, of course!
It’s all about shifting blame for problems created or enhanced under the Obama regime.
Let’s look at a case in point, brought up by Messina in the video. Review the 2004 electoral map, which showed fairly solid Bush country in most places save along the coasts and the upper Midwest. By 2008 many of these areas had seen a slight economic decline, but a large factor in how the Democrats racked up such voter registration gains was their work in blaming Bush for every one of the country’s maladies, coupled with the drumbeat of a compliant media pounding home a message that we were stuck in an Iraqi quagmire which was sapping America’s resolve. No wonder people were ready for ‘change’ and they got it, voting out the continually moderating GOP majority in 2006 and finishing the job by electing Obama in 2008.
And regardless of who the GOP put up to follow in Bush’s footsteps he or she would’ve had a tough row to hoe. Yet John McCain was perhaps the most uninspiring Republican candidate to come along in some time. His one chance at the polls came when he picked a conservative firebrand as his vice-presidential pick, but he threw it away when he suspended his campaign to work with Obama to address the economy. It showed a lack of leadership as he played into the Democrat’s hands and, quite honestly, I think he was fortunate to only lose by 6 points. (Had McCain selected another moderate as VP, like perhaps – as one rumor had it – Joe Lieberman, I think he would have lost by 20 because conservatives would have stayed home in droves.)
But in 2012 the tables may be turned, with the exception that the media isn’t continually beating down Barack Obama. Still, the economy hasn’t improved from 2008, we’re still fighting a war on now 2 1/2 fronts (Libya rising while Iraq winds down), gas prices are back to summer 2008 levels, and government spending is surging well beyond even George W. Bush’s high deficit levels. In 2010, just as in 2006, the party in charge of Congress was tossed out. (It was only Senate demographics that saved a Democratic majority in the Senate, since they had a pretty much equal number of seats at stake with the GOP. In 2012, the large number of Democrat Senators who swept Harry Reid into power in 2006 are sitting for re-election – if Republicans make similar inroads next time they take back the majority.)
And while it’s no safe bet that Republicans won’t wear out their welcome, much of their success hinges on Barack Obama’s continued failure. It’s why killing Osama bin Laden was a godsend for President Obama, and we’re sure to be reminded thousands of times that Obama was in charge when Osama assumed sea temperature.
Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile. But, as it was in 1992, it’s the economy stupid. President Obama better have less than 8 percent unemployment by the middle of 2012 or he’s toast – you can take that to the bank and hope the financial institution is ‘too big to fail.’
Whether it’s because we have over eighteen months to go until the presidential election and about nine until the first real votes are cast, or if it’s a field which draws little but yawns, there’s just not a lot of buzz going in about the Republican presidential field. I had a poll up for a week and drew a small response – less than 5% of my readership had an opinion.
I set it up for two questions: preference for those already in the field and a wish list of those one would like to see enter. If the primary were held today, the top votegetters among my readership would be:
Ron Paul (35.48%)
Tim Pawlenty (25.81%)
Herman Cain (16.13%)
Rick Santorum (12.9%)
Newt Gingrich (6.45%)
Mitt Romney (3.23%)
In the category of zero support were Fred Karger, Roy Moore, and Buddy Roemer. That’s no surprise.
I was a bit surprised with the results of poll number 2, which asked who respondents would prefer to see jump into the field.
Michele Bachmann (25.0%)
Donald Trump (13.89%)
Gary Johnson (11.11%)
Rudy Giuliani (8.33%)
Haley Barbour, John Bolton, Mitch Daniels, George Pataki, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan (5.56% apiece)
Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin (2.78% apiece)
Paul Ryan was a write-in, as was Herman Cain. Somebody didn’t pay attention to my first poll.
And no one wants Jon Huntsman in the race. You would think since I allowed multiple answers on the wish list poll that someone would back him, but I guess not.
The biggest shock to me was just how quickly Sarah Palin has fallen out of favor. Had I asked the question a few months back I’m betting that she would be the top vote-getter, or at least right up there with perennial libertarian darling Ron Paul.
But it seems to me that her outspoken populist angle is being usurped by – of all people – Donald Trump. It’s surprising that a guy who has donated thousands to Democrats is being considered as a conservative darling, but he has name recognition to spare and isn’t partaking in the political doublespeak many other candidates engage in.
Honestly, I think she may have missed the boat on 2012. Whether Sarah would prefer to bide her time and wait for 2016 (which assumes an Obama victory and an open seat) or simply decided a position as a political outsider and spokesperson for conservative causes – one who can still draw a crowd – better suits her situation, well, that I don’t know. And there may be a cagey reason for her to let Trump take all the slings and arrows for awhile, since he seems to relish the spotlight regardless of how harsh it may be.
In a way, it’s great to have so many choices and not have someone considered a frontrunner at the moment. This is a time where we need a contest for the Republican nomination because it serves as a placeholder for a contest for the soul of the party itself. While the TEA Party can help elect a candidate, there’s still a faction of establishment Republicans who need to be eradicated from the levers of power before a takeover is possible. That faction is the one calculating just who would be the ‘safe’ choice acceptable to the American people yet malleable enough to control once in office.
Assuming President Obama is a one-term president, the new Republican president becomes the de facto leader of the party. It will take a strong conservative to fight not just Democrats but the establishment Republicans fighting the rear-guard action to bring the party to the center – in other words, the “No Labels” types. (Someone like Senator Jim DeMint comes to mind, but I doubt he’s running.)
I know my readership has a political compass pointing somewhere between conservative and libertarian, as it likely reflects my personal opinion. So it’s interesting to see just what kind of push that Ron Paul (and Gary Johnson, who announced shortly after I created the poll) have here as opposed to the nation at large.
In the next couple weeks I’ll begin to compile the Presidential campaign widget along with ones for the Maryland U.S. Senate seat and First District Congressional seat. (In that case I think the key question is whether we’ll see a Harris-Kratovil threepeat.) I know things slow down around here for the summer (who wants to sit inside reading blogs? Heck, I’m composing this outside in the summerlike breeze) but there’s a lot of political events going on.
Now is the time to really pay attention, since those in power know summer is a political siesta. That’s when they try and get away with the most damaging stuff.
Have you ever wondered where the phrase ‘odds and ends’ comes from? Me neither, but I use it to describe posts where I have a number of little items which only need a paragraph or two.
Last week I told you about the drive to send SB167 (in-state tuition for illegal immigrants) to referendum. Well, the battle has another supporter in Delegate Justin Ready, a fellow freshman Republican to Delegate Neil Parrott. In an e-mail to supporters, Ready reminded us that:
Perhaps the worst piece of legislation that passed the General Assembly in the just-concluded session was SB 167: The Dream Act, which gives in-state tuition rates (taxpayer funded benefits) to illegal immigrants. It allows them to attend community colleges and the University System at the in-county and in-state rates.
(snip)
We do have an alternative! The Maryland constitution provides for citizens to petition a passed bill to referendum by obtaining signatures. Several of us in the General Assembly have gotten together, led by Del. Neil Parrott from Washington County, to form a petition drive with dozens of pro-rule of law activists around Maryland. In order to put this measure on the ballot in the 2012 election, we must obtain 55,000 signatures from Maryland registered voters by the end of July. We have to obtain about 20,000 by May 31st. However, these petition drives are extremely tricky because the State Board of Elections looks for any excuse to void or disqualify a signature so we estimate that we’ll need about 35,000 by May 31st and probably closer to 100,000 overall.
I think Ready is right on the money insofar as signatures go, but even if they are received the uphill battle really begins as liberals dig out all the so-called “victims” of this heartless TEA Party initiative. Of course, that can be countered by considering who could be aced out of a spot – perhaps a poor minority youth trying to escape poverty? That angle can play well in PG County and Baltimore City.
Speaking of poor legislation, Maryland continues to play Don Quixote tilting at windmills (well, they’re actually turbines) to be built just a few miles off Ocean City. (Oil platforms will spoil the view, but wind turbines won’t? Get real.) In part, this legislation stemmed from a drive to combat so-called global warming just as another push to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative did.
Well, New Jersey may be rethinking its position on RGGI, and a key Senator in that state made it a bipartisan push. Americans for Prosperity shared this news:
When the original legislation paving the way for New Jersey’s entry into RGGI was passed in 2008, it was done so on a bi-partisan basis. Likewise, dismantling RGGI will require support from members of both political parties.
By joining the movement to repeal RGGI, Senator (Paul) Sarlo became the first Democrat to back the effort to kill this Cap & Trade tax and opened the door for more of his Democrat colleagues in the Legislature to do the same. In fact, at (Thursday’s) press conference Senator Sarlo urged his fellow Democrats today to do just that.
Senator Sarlo did not arrive at this decision lightly. But when presented with the indisputable facts about the RGGI scheme — including its lack of transparency, exploitation by “insiders” looking to speculate and profit
on the backs of ratepayers, as well as the devastating consequences for New Jersey’s economy and jobs — the senator made the call to stand up for New Jersey’s economic future.
Now, I’m not sure if New Jersey leaving RGGI would lead to any other states rethinking their position, although one would suspect newly-installed GOP governors and legislators in Pennsylvania and Maine may be most likely to do so. Unfortunately, Maryland has neither a GOP governor or legislature so utility ratepayers will continue to take it in the shorts for the foreseeable future.
Speaking of Maryland politics, we are now less than a year away from the 2012 primary. (At least we will be when this takes effect.) Hopefully they change the 2014 date to the last week in July because late June is too damn early to me. I like the date as it is in September but federal law changes make that impossible. Nothing like Fedzilla sticking its nose into state’s affairs.
Anyway, I got an e-mail from one of the early U.S. Senate candidates on the GOP side (to face presumptive Democratic nominee, Senator Ben Cardin) offering to do a blog interview with me. So I asked the other two candidates that I’m aware of to match that offer – one is already on the ballot while the other will announce around the first of May.
This doesn’t include Eric Wargotz yet, although my suspicion is that he’ll jump into the race before summer. Hey, I’ll interview him too. He knows I always have plenty of questions.
In case you’re wondering, yes, I’m giving short shrift to two Democratic hopefuls. But the contest for both Raymond Levi Blagmon and perennialcandidate Lih Young will be to manage to get one percent of the vote.
I think that’s enough grist for the mill. I bet you all thought I was taking another long weekend off from the political but you have to admit we’re in the silly season now. The only real big news seems to be the growing GOP Presidental field but no one is really going to be paying much attention to that until at least the Ames Straw Poll and more likely after Labor Day when things start getting serious. By then we’ll have a decent idea of the contenders and the pretenders.
In an e-mail to supporters (and detractors such as me) he noted:
Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign.
We’re doing this now because the politics we believe in does not start with expensive TV ads or extravaganzas, but with you — with people organizing block-by-block, talking to neighbors, co-workers, and friends. And that kind of campaign takes time to build.
So even though I’m focused on the job you elected me to do, and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more, the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today.
We’ve always known that lasting change wouldn’t come quickly or easily. It never does. But as my administration and folks across the country fight to protect the progress we’ve made — and make more — we also need to begin mobilizing for 2012, long before the time comes for me to begin campaigning in earnest.
(snip)
In the coming days, supporters like you will begin forging a new organization that we’ll build together in cities and towns across the country. And I’ll need you to help shape our plan as we create a campaign that’s farther reaching, more focused, and more innovative than anything we’ve built before.
We’ll start by doing something unprecedented: coordinating millions of one-on-one conversations between supporters across every single state, reconnecting old friends, inspiring new ones to join the cause, and readying ourselves for next year’s fight.
This will be my final campaign, at least as a candidate. But the cause of making a lasting difference for our families, our communities, and our country has never been about one person. And it will succeed only if we work together.
Do you see the push to repeal the 22nd amendment beginning in 2013 or 2014 if he’s re-elected? Last campaign my ass – he’s essentially been non-stop campaigning since about 2007. We’re not seeing a lot of governing here.
In their writeup of the story, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post makes the following statement:
The formation of a reelection committee will allow Obama to begin collecting cash for what is expected to be the most expensive campaign in political history. Obama raised $750 million in 2008 and is widely expected to meet or exceed that total in 2012.
Already Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has been touring the country to meet with major donors; he has asked 400 major donors to each collect $350,000 in 2011, a target that, if met, would mean that Obama would end the year with $140 million raised — before a single vote was cast in the race for Republican presidential nomination.
Obama can talk all he wants about creating an “innovative” campaign or “reconnecting old friends,” but Cillizza’s remark is the real story here – it’s all about the Benjamins. Remember, Obama decided not to accept public financing (and its arbitrary spending limits) last time around. That meant he could swamp a woefully underfunded John McCain, even without the free campaign advertising provided by a fawning press.
Heck, we already have the first Obama campaign commercial:
Oh wait, that commerical came from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Still, it’s a lot more truthful than the bilge that Obama For Against America will be putting out. All he’ll do is blame Bush, Republicans in the House, and racist Americans (not necessarily in that order) for creating the problems he’s had to deal with. There will also be those spots where he finds shiny, happy Americans only too willing to depend on government largesse for their prosperity.
All I know is that this upcoming campaign will likely be the most negative in American history, simply because any attempt to point out President Obama’s sorry record on the economy, foreign affairs, or response to crisis will be considered an attack by the fawning media – which will also be declaring open season on the GOP nominee, whoever he or she is. So it will be negative, and I guess I’m starting the ball rolling already with nineteen months to election day.
With apologies to Fred Karger, Herman Cain, and former Louisiana governor Buddy Roemer, the GOP field will be getting its first heavyweight. Today Newt Gingrich announced his own Presidential exploratory committee.
Over the last year I’ve watched a failure in leadership, and have spent a lot of time thinking and praying about taking the first step. I am writing you to ask for your advice, as Callista and I consider whether or not I should run in 2012.
What I need to do right now is listen to and learn from people all across America. I need to be certain that if I run, my candidacy will have the support it will need to make a positive difference for our nation. However, I can’t do it alone. What I am hoping you will do is help me and support me during this exploratory process.
I have asked a lot from you over the years. In return you have humbled me by demonstrating your talent, energy, and financial sacrifice that reflect how deeply you and others like you, care about our nation. You are an indispensable part of helping me decide what to do next, and I have to tell you, I need you now more than ever before. If I run, this will be the single biggest challenge we’ve ever faced together.
With Newt joining this not-so-crowded field, this will likely mean a slew of the other probable contenders will be making their own decisions shortly (as in by month’s end) so as not to let Gingrich get too much of a lead in fundraising and exposure. In particular, those who are considered among the field’s lesser lights will likely need to jump in shortly while someone like Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney could wait a bit longer.
Since a couple other legislators (Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and South Dakota Sen. John Thune) have taken a pass on the race, Gingrich could be one of the few Washington insiders to make a run. However, most of his Beltway experience of late has come as a political gadfly as the last election he won came back in 1998. He served in the House for nearly 20 years and was Speaker of the House from 1995-98.
The 67 year old Gingrich will also be a generation removed from the incumbent, although several other contenders are also in their sixties (including the three aforementioned with exploratory committees.)
So now the chess game can begin as the other pieces will be placed on the board and arrayed against the Barack Obama re-election machine.
I have a bunch of stuff today which piqued my interest but only needs anywhere from a sentence to a couple paragraphs to take care of. So here goes.
Over the last few days as the Madison protests continue, we’ve had Big Labor flex its muscles in a number of locations around the country. Needless to say I can’t be everywhere at once, and I was working during the Annapolis protest.
However, my blogging cohorts have helped me out. With on-the-spot reports I feature my Potomac TEA Party Report friend Ann Corcoran from Annapolis and the excellent photojournalist who goes by the moniker ‘El Marco’ reporting from his hometown of Denver on his Looking at the Left website.
Corcoran also lets us know that the unions will be back with their Astroturf in Annapolis on March 14, with the intent of making this a bigger and better protest. (By the way, school is scheduled to be in session for Wicomico County students on March 14 so the teachers here risk the last preparation day for grade 3-8 assessment tests if they skip town to attend.)
Turning to national politics, the other day I was talking about the prospects of Ron Paul’s third Presidential bid. Well, the ‘money bomb’ on Monday for the Liberty PAC that Paul leads raised over $750,000 – the ticker inhabits the front page of the Liberty PAC site. Guess he can afford those plane trips now and, if I were a betting man, I’d wager an announcement of his 2012 campaign will occur shortly after (or even during) the Iowa trip.
Finally, let’s talk about a poll or two. This morning Rasmussen released a poll claiming that 67% of Americans don’t support the ‘cut-and-run’ Democrats in Wisconsin (and now, Indiana) – naturally, the only group which approved by a bare plurality (48-44) are those who self-identified as Democrats.
Speaking of those who identify themselves as progressives, I have some exciting news on a new experiment.
I’m working with Progressive Delmarva‘s ‘Two Sentz’ on a joint poll which will appear at both sites later this afternoon; it’s the final polling on the City Council primary race.
While I’ve found that the fundraising results roughly parallel the polling I’ve done insofar as the top contenders are concerned, it’s obvious my readership skews to the right. So in order to perhaps get a clearer picture of the electorate I figured I needed to add some lean to the left. So we’ll see what the results show when the poll ends on Monday.
And then we’ll all see just how accurate we were Tuesday night.
Well, fresh off his CPAC success, I guess Ron Paul either read my post where I thought he could be a kingmaker or just wants more money for his Liberty PAC.
In either case, I got an e-mail yesterday, over Rep. Paul’s signature, which told me the following:
Along with all the attention and National news, invitations to visit key political states are pouring in. I want to honor as many of these requests as possible, and I need your help.
I have committed to trips to Iowa on March 7th and March 23rd, and I need your help to get me there.
My trip on March 7th would include three stops across the state, and it will prove tremendously valuable to our cause. But, all of these stops are hundreds of miles apart and cannot be done in a car. This trip will require a charter plane, and let me tell you, it is not cheap.
Others can rely on big corporate money to fund their travel budget.
We may not be able to tap the deep coffers of the Establishment, but we have something they will never have: a committed group of individuals armed with knowledge and ideas.
If thousands of us come together and chip in, we can counter the big special interest money.
Other invitations are flooding in from New Hampshire, Florida, California, Arizona, Nevada, and more.
I want to honor as many of these requests as possible to spread our message and set the stage for all of our political activity over the next 18 months. (Emphasis in original.)
Paul’s Liberty PAC was a fairly minor player in the last two-year cycle – FEC records show it only spent about $22,000 on candidate contributions in 2009-10 and had just under $100,000 cash on hand at the end of last year. And while I’ve never enlisted the services of a charter plane, I don’t think $100k will get you too far in a Presidential campaign.
Perhaps the Iowa trip is a precursor to forming an exploratory committee?
The conventional wisdom – at least prior to this era where the apple cart is overturned as quickly and completely as possible – used to be that one needed to get into the race really early to build up a profile. But this election seems different because of the aspects of social media and a 24/7 news cycle. As of this writing, I’m only aware of two candidates with exploratory committees while others are biding their time, including Paul.
But, to me, this Iowa trip suspiciously seems like a way of testing the waters for Ron Paul, and if I were a betting man I’d say he’s going to make one more go of it. And don’t be surprised if his son Rand doesn’t follow in his footsteps come 2016 or 2020. Perhaps then we could have a Paul/Paul ticket.
I’d like to see Ron Paul a little closer to home myself, but Maryland and Delaware will likely be afterthoughts in the political process. It’s why we need regional primaries; otherwise my suspicion is that Super Tuesday will be April 3, 2012 and Maryland would be just one of a dozen or more states scattered all across the country vying for the candidates’ attention. With only a few dozen convention delegates at stake we’re probably not a big target.
(As the rules stand right now, states which allot delegates proportionately go first, with ‘winner-take-all’ states like Maryland only allowed to select convention delegates after April 1, 2012. I presume this is to maintain the maximum possible number of contenders for the longest amount of time, so we’re not stuck with only a few surviving candidates by the time our turn arrives.)
That’s something as a state party we need to address soon. Meanwhile, if Ron Paul gets any of those Maryland delegates you can consider me shocked.
To the surprise of few, Texas Congressman Ron Paul beat out a slew of Republican candidates to win the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC for short) straw poll, a traditional close out event for the gathering. His 30% of the vote bested other so-called frontrunners Mitt Romney (23%), Newt Gingrich (5%), Tim Pawlenty (4%), and Sarah Palin (3 percent.) It was Paul’s second CPAC win in a row; last year he ended Mitt Romney’s three-year winning streak.
But bear in mind that the poll only counted a total of 3,742 ballots; by comparison, Wicomico County accounted for 8,902 Republican primary votes in 2008. Moreover, Paul’s Campaign for Liberty front group was a key promoter of the event, so the results weren’t completely surprising.
Straw polls can be notoriously fickle, too. Remember back in September 2007 when Duncan Hunter won a Texas straw poll? By the time Texas actually had a say in the matter, Duncan Hunter was long gone from the presidential contest. (Too bad, because he was my personal choice.) While his campaign was one of notable conservativism and attracted backing from luminaries like Gen. Chuck Yeager, WorldNetDaily‘s Joseph Farah, and columnist Ann Coulter, Hunter disappeared from the race shortly after the New Hampshire primary. (Perhaps Hunter simply ran four years too soon, but there’s no indication so far he’s looking for a repeat in 2012.)
Even the Ames Straw Poll, which is seen as a kickoff to the Presidential race because of its Iowa location, hasn’t been a good prognosticator of results. Out of five such events, only twice (Bob Dole in 1995 and George W. Bush in 1999) has the eventual GOP nominee been the winner of this bellweather event. Mitt Romney won the straw ballot in 2007 but didn’t even win the state’s caucuses five months later.
So it would appear that Ron Paul, despite running strongly in a caucus-style situation, wouldn’t have a great chance of winning the GOP nod. After all, this would be his third time around the block should he choose to run – besides the 2008 campaign, he ran as the Libertarian Party standardbearer in 1988 – and he would almost certainly be the oldest candidate in the field since he turns 76 in August. Another strike against him is that most states have winner-take-all primaries, although Republican Party rules this time around push those states to the back of the electoral line.
But there are a number of ways that Paul can have a role in the race, even if he doesn’t win or even come anywhere close to victory. Consider the impact of the TEA Party this time around.
It’s a group that wasn’t politically active in 2008, which served as the end of the era of so-called compassionate conservatism. While this new course of conservativism was designed to appeal to the big tent of moderate voters the result was an ever-expanding government, and Republicans disgusted with the excesses of the Bush years stayed home in droves on Election Day. The only excitement in the McCain campaign turned out to be the selection of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee; picking the Alaska governor may have been the only thing to save McCain from a Goldwater-like electoral slaughter by Barack Obama.
Yet despite the fact only two years have passed since that nadir, the political landscape has been irrevocably changed by the ascension of the TEA Party, with the proof being the 2010 midterm elections. There’s no need to recount here the entire rise of the TEA Party, but it’s a group where Ron Paul’s acolytes have certainly found a home. Add to that the evidence from 2008 that Paul can be a powerful and convincing fundraiser, and it shows the financial firepower and grassroots support should be there for a reasonable run at the brass ring.
This election will be a showdown between establishment Republicans who favor the predictability of a Mitt Ronmey and the TEA Party irregulars who could throw their support behind Paul initially and make or break the candidacy of whichever populist conservative eventually emerges as Ronmey’s foremost challenger for the nomination.
In time, Ron Paul could become a dealmaker, with his small but loyal following moving squarely behind another darkhorse candidate like Herman Cain, Jim DeMint, or Gary Johnson. (It’s a sure bet that Donald Trump is not on that list.)
But at this early stage, Paul and his legions can bask in the glow of a straw poll neatly set up to make him look good. We’re still nearly a year out from actual voting so every Republican with a pulse theoretically has a shot at the nomination. Most of the likely contenders are working hard behind the scenes building a campaign team while being coy about their intentions in public.
Still, in a time where conventional wisdom has evolved into a contest of who can most completely upset the apple cart in the quickest time, we can’t just dismiss the renegade Texan. The CPAC results prove Ron Paul has a role to play in this process, with the question being only what frontrunners like Romney and Palin will do to accommodate his diligent supporters.
Let’s begin at the national level, where another prospective 2012 Republican presidential candidate was brought out of the closet by the Washington Post. They devote five internet pages to Fred Karger’s story.
The play on words was intentional; Karger is billing himself as the first openly gay presidential candidate. I actually mentioned him before when Herman Cain jumped into the race, but this is the biggest splash about him I’ve seen. Leave it to the liberals at the Post to promote him, since Karger isn’t exactly the flavor of the month among Republicans and TEA Party regulars.
Having said that, though, Fred opens up a big can of worms – since establishment Republicans recoil in horror at the thought of being portrayed as racist, imagine the cacophony when they’re deemed homophobes because Karger’s not considered among the top tier of candidates.
Once the Salisbury election is over, I’ll start linking to GOP hopeful websites and Karger’s will be one, assuming he’s still in the race.
How Maryland will affect that race is up for debate. Because of rules adopted by both parties, those states with “winner-take-all” primaries like Maryland have to push their primaries back to April of next year. (Traditional lidlifters Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will be allowed to hold primaries in February and states which allot convention delegates proportionally may go in March.) Thus, the earliest Maryland could hold its primary in 2012 would be April 3rd, which is the first Tuesday in April.
Compare this to 2008, when Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia held a regional primary on February 12 of that year. (The primary process started in Iowa on January 3 of that year; currently next year’s Iowa caucuses are slated for February 6, 2012.) We still didn’t have a lot of say in the process since 2008’s “Super Tuesday” of primaries occurred the week before.
Also up for change is the date for the 2014 state primary, which needs to be backed up to comply with federal law regarding military ballots.
If it were up to me, though, the national primary process would mirror our state’s to a greater extent. Run Iowa and New Hampshire around the middle of June, hold a half-dozen regional primaries over six weeks in June and July, and have the conventions in late August. A nice short process. Primaries shouldn’t even begin until June as far as I’m concerned – anything before that makes the campaign WAY too long.
The next item comes from being on the strangest e-mail lists. Somehow I have ended up on Barbara Boxer’s e-mail distribution network, but this item piqued my interest.
This week I introduced the West Coast Ocean Protection Act, a bill to permanently prohibit new offshore drilling along the Pacific coast. I was joined by all the Senators from the West Coast – including my colleague from California, Senator Dianne Feinstein, and Senators Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Patty Murray (D-WA), Ron Wyden (D-OR), and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) – in offering this critical legislation to protect the 570,000 jobs and $34 billion coastal economy of our three states.
Additional offshore oil development along the Pacific shoreline would needlessly endanger irreplaceable natural resources and our vital coastal economies.
Boxer goes on to note that there’s no plans for development until at least 2017, but wants to make sure it’s permanent. Why do I get the sneaking hunch that our two Senators will either try and amend the bill to include Maryland or have the brilliant idea to do their own measure? Substitute the word “Atlantic” for “Pacific” and you’d sum up their sentiments.
Of course, the difference is that we know there’s oil off the Pacific coast while the jury’s still out on whether there’s marketable reserves under the Atlantic. But there are some reserves of both coal and natural gas deep underneath the Free State and it behooves us to allow exploration – unfortunately, we have a governor who is woefully short-sighted in that department. (In fact, wind farms, coal mines, and natural gas wells can coexist in the same area.)
In the meantime, I’d lay odds on our not-so-dynamic duo of Cardin and Mikulski helping Boxer’s bill along.
After all, they don’t listen to their constituents who want nothing to do with Obamacare, instead voting along like good little Democratic sheep. Mikulski even voted to keep the onerous Obamacare $600 reporting requirement. (Ben Cardin had the good sense to vote yes, although, more likely, he realized that 2012 is fast approaching.)
Finally, there’s a casting call for another arrogant Democratic party leader in Maryland – seems Susan Turnbull is leaving her post. Benefits include fawning press coverage from most newspapers and plenty of special interest money to spend come election time.
Applicants may suck up to Martin O’Malley for consideration.
