Bob Ehrlich – Page 10

Comment on another’s post

Subtitled, why bury good writing and research in a comment?

First, let me set this up: Julie Brewington pondered on her site, Right Coast, why Martin O’Malley was leading Bob Ehrlich so widely (11 points) in a recent Washington Post poll. I weighed in with some statistics found on the Maryland Board of Elections website which may point out the poll was an outlier. This is my comment.

A couple points not necessarily considered:

In 2006 the primary voter split between Republicans and Democrats was 29-71 – over 70 percent of voters were Democrats.

In 2010 it was 37-63 R to D, in a state where the actual voter proportion as of the last report was 32-68. Bear in mind that in August 2006 the split was 35-65. (We’ve lost ground over the last four years for a variety of reasons.)

So in 2006 (a year that was terrible for Republicans) they underperformed at the primary ballot by 6 points, leading one to believe that R’s were less than enthused and D’s were excited.

This time we outperformed by 5 points, suggesting the tide has turned. The fact Garrett County, which is the most solidly Republican in the state, led the pack in turnout speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap.

I think you’re citing a poll that will turn out to be an outlier because there’s not a good geographic breakdown and it depends a lot on people who may not show up at the polls anyway.

However, having said that, there was a trend (shown by Rasmussen) of Ehrlich pulling even to barely ahead all spring and into the summer, but the last two polls have placed MOM back in the lead.

**********

Julie does bring up a valid point regarding the Brian Murphy campaign. I have a number of thoughts on that 25% of the GOP vote and what will happen to it.

First of all, I sincerely doubt that many of those voters will vote for Martin O’Malley out of spite. While many were dismayed by the actions of the Maryland GOP in that race, I think that most realize the stakes are great in this election. The fraction of Republicans who vote for O’Malley out of spite probably will be fewer that the votes the Democrats found in Baltimore back in 1994 to push Parris Glendening over Ellen Sauerbrey.

A larger number will choose to leave the Governor’s race blank or vote for either Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian in the race, or Eric Knowles, who represents the Constitution Party. Ironically, this could help one or both secure ballot status for the next four years since they need 1 percent of the vote to qualify as a minor party. But in all likelihood those numbers will subtract out from the Ehrlich column.

Having said that, though, Murphy’s campaign may have served to expand the Republican universe enough that, even if a decent number of Murphy supporters go third party or skip, it will end up being a wash as compared to a scenario where Murphy withdrew and left the field to Ehrlich. Some proof of this lies in how the GOP did 11 points better compared to the expected average because we had a contested primary for Governor – in 2006 we did not.

Yet the vast majority of Murphy supporters accepted the primary results, and will move into the Ehrlich column next month. The $64,000 question is whether they’ll be advocates for Bob or just show up on Election Day, hold their noses, and touch the screen next to the Ehrlich name.

But that difference could also affect races down the ticket, particularly in areas (like the Shore) where the GOP has a shot of picking off some Democratic General Assembly seats. While they can’t expect the same sort of rout we may see on a national scale, there is a threshold of 10 House seats and five Senate seats that could turn the GOP from a cipher to a truly functioning minority party in the Maryland General Assembly.

A note to former Murphy supporters

We can watch the train go over the cliff with us still on it, or we can fight to control the locomotive. That’s the difference between Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich.

Voters’ memories are notoriously short and if you asked them right now whether the name Brian Murphy rings a bell, 95% of them will say no.

I’ll certainly grant Bob Ehrlich isn’t my preferred candidate but I’d rather have someone who at least would have conservatives at the table than one who would shut them out. We need to send the message that our continued support is contingent on following through on issues near and dear to us.

In the meantime, we also have work to do reforming the MDGOP. Taking our ball and going home simply means they can continue business as usual. The more talk about going third party or skipping the election, the more ability the establishment has to marginalize those of us who choose to fight from within.

I left that comment at Ann Corcoran’s Potomac Tea Party Report. Obviously there’s a subset of people who believe that all is lost after Murphy’s defeat (as well as that of Jim Rutledge) and are willing to toss their votes out the window to support a third-party candidate. Once upon a time millions of Americans (including me) did that for Ross Perot and we got Bill Clinton.

There’s no doubt that Brian Murphy was a more conservative candidate, nor do I dispute the claim that the Maryland GOP put its finger on the scale big-time when they waived Rule 11 to back Bob Ehrlich.

But all of these people need to understand that we only lost one battle in a war that’s going to be fought long-term. If we fade back into the woodwork nothing will change. Those of us who are fighting the battle from within would be the ones left high and dry, smacked back into oblivion by the machine that we’re trying to fight this guerrilla struggle against.

If we stay at the table and Ehrlich wins, he’s going to owe us bigtime. I don’t know if Bob can run again if he wins, but conservatives would be in the far better position with a Republican in the governor’s chair and enhanced numbers in the General Assembly than we would with Martin O’Malley back in charge. Remember, Martin O’Malley represents a party whose Senate leadership vowed:

(GOP leaders are) “going to be flying high, but we’re going to get together and we’re going to shoot them down. We’re going to bury them face down in the ground, and it’ll be 10 years before they crawl out again.”

That’s how they operate in this state, my friends. Martin O’Malley would sooner give up his guitar than do something for conservatives. I’ve known this for awhile.

If diehard Murphy supporters leave or vote third party, we are ceding the hard-fought gains we’ve won in this battle and it’s going to be twice as hard to get it back in a war where the enemy holds all of the high ground. I don’t care for compromise, and certainly it would have been great to see success like conservatives saw in Delaware. But we still have a lot worth fighting for, and staving off extinction through redistricting is a serious prize to me. Democrats have plenty of plans to carve Republicans right off the electoral map.

Sure, it would be nice to get the Libertarians and Constitution Party their 1% to stay viable for another term. But let it come out of the other guy’s total.

New Rasmussen Poll has O’Malley up 3

Just released this afternoon, the newest (and first post-primary) Rasmussen Poll has Martin O’Malley eclipsing the 50 percent mark for the first time in his rematch with former governor Bob Ehrlich. The numbers have it at 50-47 O’Malley.

It continues a trend that’s seen O’Malley regain momentum after a spring and summer which saw Ehrlich catch up to O’Malley after being down by 9 points in Rasmussen’s initial sampling back in February.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Ehrlich makes visit to SU, boosts Republicans

Taking a tone more like a speech to graduates than a campaign appearance (such as this one in April), Republican candidate for Governor Bob Ehrlich stopped by Salisbury University this afternoon to several dozen supporters, mainly from SU’s College Republican group.

Bob was credited with getting the Perdue School of Business going under his watch by CR President Matt Teffeau in his introduction, and Bob remarked how his first visit to the school came as the result of a high school football All-Star game. “I lived on the campus for two weeks…in the dorms,” he recalled. Bob considered SU “a hot school” and congratulated those attending for getting in.

(continued, with a slideshow, on my Examiner.com page…)

Murphy backs Ehrlich but blasts state GOP

After losing the primary by a considerable margin, Brian Murphy did the right thing and threw his support behind winner Bob Ehrlich. In a message to supporters, he wrote:

“I entered the race because I am a fiscal conservative, and Marylanders cannot afford higher taxes or fees. Bob Ehrlich has pledged not to raise either, and so he has my full support in the General Election against Martin O’Malley.”

Obviously conservatives in Maryland, led by Murphy, will be holding Ehrlich’s feet to the fire about fiscal prudence. It’s a stand which seems to have a lot of support in the state as Bob Ehrlich spoke about fiscal conservatism early on as part of an overall pro-business stance.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Maryland Republican establishment fears Murphy’s Law in November

One advantage of having a late primary as Maryland does is the lack of downtime between the primary and the campaign — the survivors don’t have to wind the machine back up from a primary fight months before once Labor Day rolls around. Instead, winners get to keep their campaigns cranked up in high gear for another seven weeks.

But the late primary also gives the losers a role. In a divisive fight, the winner has to quickly convince supporters of the loser that they need to get onboard with his or her effort. Generally, those who succeed in November are the ones who gathered the united front shortly after the primary by soothing the wounds deflated supporters of the losing campaigns inflict by a crushing defeat.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

Thank you for your support!

Update 9/16: I picked up another 46 votes today in the absentee count and increased my margin to 27.

It looks like I may have made it…just barely, but I may have made it.

With a few hundred absentee ballots out, I’m holding on to ninth place for the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee by a 25 vote margin. It’s a damn good thing my suggestion of a couple years ago (to expand the WCRCC from 7 to 9 members) was finally adopted by the committee or I’d be out in the cold!

Obviously I’m bummed that both of my statewide candidates I supported lost. It’s not a surprise that Brian Murphy lost, but I am heartened that he picked up 29% of the vote here – it means that Bob Ehrlich can’t take us conservatives for granted over the next seven weeks. (Murphy got over 30% of the vote in a handful of counties, peaking so far at 33 percent.)

But I guess Eric Wargotz may have bought himself a nomination, since he doesn’t seem to anywhere near the grassroots support that Jim Rutledge did. My friends who are Rutledge backers should be proud that the top two counties in the state to back Jim were (in order) Wicomico (#1) and Worcester (#2.) Shows we have some common sense, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Wargotz skedaddle to the center now.

I did better on the homefront – wasn’t sure Marty Pusey would pull it off but she did! Congrats and way to go Marty!

More shocking was the ease in which Charles Otto won his primary. And people will be talking for awhile about the upset of Davis Ruark by Seth Mitchell.

Looks like later today I can condense my righthand column and prepare for November. But again, thanks to the 2,036 people who had faith in me and my efforts on the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee!

Just don’t tell me I’m a shoo-in next time!

Some thoughts on Brian Murphy

Even before yesterday, most people knew I was a Brian Murphy backer. I strongly endorse his bid for Governor. Yet all but maybe a handful of readers may wonder where I was yesterday and the long duration between posts.

Yesterday afternoon I had the opportunity to attend a rally for Brian Murphy supporters outside Annapolis. The reason I did so was to gather material for a Pajamas Media story I worked on this afternoon, and I got to speak to activists from all over who strongly support Brian and may only provide the most tepid of backing for Bob Ehrlich. I can’t say that I blame them, even though I’ll vote for Bob in November if he wins tomorrow (provided he doesn’t do anything absolutely stupid in the next seven weeks like embrace the Obama agenda.)

In the aftermath of this election cycle, though, it’s clear one of two things will be true:

We will have a Republican governor, or;
We will have the last Maryland GOP standardbearer be a two-time loser, whether in the primary or general election.

The last time we had a Republican governor, one of his cronies ran the party and just about ran it into the ground. (Now his wife is on the Ehrlich ticket as LG – talk about cronyism!) It was up to a man who I didn’t initially support but now have all the respect in the world for, Jim Pelura, to try and straighten out that mess. Pelura served as the master of ceremonies yesterday and had this to say about Brian in his introduction.

One can debate the merits of Pelura’s tenure as GOP head, but they can’t debate his integrity and principles. I happen to think part of the reason he was ousted and certain large donors held back was because he didn’t allow the party to be completely hijacked as a vehicle for re-electing Bob Ehrlich. Is there bad blood between Pelura and the Ehrlichs? Most likely, but there have been enough people who dislike each other personally but work together for a common goal that I dismiss that angle of sour grapes directed at Jim from the Ehrlich camp.

But let’s say the unthinkable happens and Martin O’Malley is re-elected. Obviously the Ehrlich supporters will be screaming that it’s all Brian Murphy’s fault, but I’m hoping they instead put on their big-boy pants and realize that Ehrlich obviously alienated a significant portion of the electorate, most likely the conservatives who backed Murphy. Sure, Ehrlich talked like this early on (back in April) but he’s never done a mea culpa for overspending during his term.

I just hope the Ehrlich backers recall the ‘no whining’ admonition if he loses. But it’s also up to Murphy backers to consider that they at least can’t ignore the downticket races, even if Murphy loses tomorrow and they can’t stomach the thought of either Ehrlich or O’Malley in office. For me, it’s not quite a ‘lesser of two evils’ race (because Bob Ehrlich does have some good points) but there is that potential for a lot of people.

But the bigger question is whether the Ehrlich era is over if he loses. Does Brian Murphy become the next rendition of Bob Ehrlich, and will the party become a machine to put Brian Murphy in the governor’s office for the open seat come 2014? Somehow I don’t see that happening because Ehrlich is the “establishment” candidate, and they’ll find someone else to play the role if and when Ehrlich departs from the stage. I’d be shocked if Brian Murphy is invited to speak at a Lincoln Day dinner next year. (Now, if he could bring along Sarah Palin that may become a ‘go’.)

I know Brian Murphy’s stances, and I think he would be a great governor. But there are those out there for whom he needs to earn their respect, and if he loses I hope he doesn’t take too long to back Bob Ehrlich. We will need all hands on deck this fall. However, it’s also up to Ehrlich to regain the trust he lost, and tacking to the center right away isn’t going to make it with a lot of his base. If those people stay home in November we have a problem.

Consider it a real life application of Murphy’s Law.

Friday night videos – episode 45

Call this the primary edition. It’s some of the interesting things which have come across my screen lately and I want to share with you.

First, I love the smell of hypocricy in the evening as much as I do in the morning.

Yep, let’s hire non-union people to protest on behalf of a union. Unless there’s full employment within the union (in which case they shouldn’t need the work anyway) why can’t they use their own members?

In the meantime, the administration they blindly support is killing other union and non-union jobs in the energy industry.

It’s interesting – 5,500 people came of their own accord to speak out on their jobs but providing a handful of jobs to the members of the union who instead paid scab labor to picket was out of the question.

The statewide races for Governor and Senate are quite interesting, with Jim Rutledge and Eric Wargotz fighting out the U.S. Senate nod and Brian Murphy closing the gap on Bob Ehrlich. Here’s a little something from each, beginning with Rutledge. Someone came up with a great video on Jim’s behalf.

I still like the bearded look on Jim. Meanwhile, his opponent Eric Wargotz hit the airwaves with this last week.

It’s a humorous ad, and certainly gets the point across. But is appearing in safari garb Eric’s ‘Dukakis moment’?

A more conventional message comes from Brian Murphy in his TV spot.

It sounds pretty Eastern Shore to me, since that’s where he grew up. Meanwhile, Bob Ehrlich vows to kill the expansion of the sales tax to 43 services.

Oh, I remember the bill – they’ve tried to sneak it through but didn’t have the cajones to do it back then. We fought it tooth and nail and won.

Finally, this week wouldn’t be complete without mentioning something about tomorrow. It’s this week’s Freedom Minute from the Center for Individual Freedom.I decided to skip the music video this week because I may just have fresh ones next week if I’m able. We’ll have to see on that; otherwise enjoy the rest of your night!

Party uber alles?

Let me begin by saying that I’m quite aware Audrey Scott, as MDGOP Chair, is paid to elect Republicans. But is this the right message to put out?

Sometimes you have to stand for something besides not being the other guys. Oftentimes we make our decisions based on the letter after the name, not realizing that there’s supposed to be underlying principles inherent within.

I think Brian Murphy understands this too. He criticized Scott in a blistering radio interview message:

For the last 100 years, the Maryland Republican Party has been irrelevant, and so they’ve just said, ‘Well, the only way to win is to look like Democrats.’ No, the way to win is what Ronald Reagan did: to stand on principle.

[The GOP] is really having an identity crisis. Over the weekend, there was a telling video, and it was really pretty disgusting, quite frankly. The reason I’m running is because we’ve lost sight of our principles in our party. If the Republican Party is one thing, it is a party of principles. It is a party of conviction and passion. Our Founders were all men and women of principle and passion.

There was this Rule 11 thing, where the Republican Party, most folks don’t know about it, they don’t really care. It’s this little group that decided to endorse Ehrlich, even before he filed. It was basically a vote against me. But that was a symptom. And this video, this weekend, was the real disease. It was the Chairman of the Republican Party… she said, ‘Party first. Party over principle.’ Which shows she doesn’t understand the Republican Party is the party of principle. That’s why we’re losers in Maryland.

Now, I already have heard the argument about Brian being a Democrat for awhile, yadda yadda yadda. Perhaps what attracted him to switch was the fact our party has good conservative principles and he felt he was the best person to lead us in that direction? To dismiss him is to dismiss a number of other leaders on a more local scale who simply were fed up with politics as usual. A church wouldn’t turn away someone who wants to convert, so why should we?

Unfortunately for establishment Republicans, I give a damn about principles too. One thing I demand is a fair shake for all candidates and let them stand or fall on their own merits, not being Obamalike and clearing the playing field for a chosen candidate. Yes, I’m proud to be a Republican but the “R” next to the name doesn’t guarantee a vote when I think they fall short on principles. That’s why I am unabashedly a Murphy supporter – on the other hand, Wayne Gilchrest was one of those types who wasn’t what I considered a good Republican to be. Fortunately Bob Ehrlich has just enough good points that I can support him in the general election if he doesn’t lose the primary. Chances are he won’t.

That being said, though, in the next term the GOP is going to need to have the whip handy in order to corral Ehrlich in the right direction and make sure he follows through on those areas conservatives supported him for. That means crossing the aisle to accomodate Democrats is verboten – let them come to us. If Ehrlich wins he makes the budget and that’s part of the political Golden Rule – he who has the gold, rules. So screw the Democrats – they’re more than happy to do it to us when they’re in power. It’s our contention as conservatives that following our philosophy of limiting government will lead to more prosperity and freedom for all, not just chosen special interests.

More than likely it’s too late for Murphy’s words to make much of an impact for this election – votes are already being cast and, with our party (led by Ehrlich) now hypocritically embracing the early voting we fought against, Brian Murphy has fewer minds to change. But there is still hope for the next cycle, and if Bob Ehrlich wins and becomes the titular leader of the Maryland GOP he shouldn’t be allowed to just expect the party to back his every move or become a vehicle for his re-election. We already tried that once and we see where we were led.

(On a side note, perhaps it’s time to consider something our neighbor to the south does and limit governors to one four-year term. While we’re at it, 12 years in the General Assembly is more than enough.)

It’s what makes your local Central Committee elections almost as important as choosing the best Republican candidates to follow the party’s conservative, limited-government philosophy through to a seat in the General Assembly. I happen to be running for one of those seats, and I’ll be thankful and humbled if Wicomico County voters place their trust in me for another term.

But it’s more important that our party conveys a message that principles matter and the people should have their say in electing a candidate. This Rule 11 fiasco wasn’t quite as covert as my birth state’s practice of regularly trying to avoid contested primaries in statewide races by cajolery but it still has the stench of a backroom deal written all over it. In an era where more people than ever are fed up with ‘politics as usual’ and don’t think there’s a significant difference between the two parties, there’s no need to make my job as a Republican harder by providing more evidence those perceptions are correct.

A Labor Day message

There’s something about Labor Day which has always bothered me. Perhaps it’s the onset of fall and the ending of the summer season that I enjoy most, not to mention the close of the Shorebirds season, but our celebration of the American worker seems too tied in to glorifying the unions and less to honoring those who both create the jobs by opening the business which employ most Americans and those who had the foresight to invest in these dreams. After all, had Henry Ford not enticed investors to believe in his idea we wouldn’t be driving our Escapes, Crown Vics, or F-150s that are primarily built by UAW members.

It could simply be my upbringing, too. Three years ago I wrote:

I guess some of the issue I have with unions comes from my upbringing. I was raised in a Teamster household but really there wasn’t all that much to show for it. My dad was (and is) a hard worker but people who did nothing made the same amount of money, and that never appealed to the side of me that desires fairness and justice in life. And I’ve heard too many anecdotes of union shops intentionally slowing down production so their quota wouldn’t be increased. It’s sort of the same thinking as the governmental agency spending big money on office supplies and the like at the end of the fiscal year so they make sure they spend their full budget and not have it cut.

Also, to me it was quite sad to see the streets of downtown Toledo full of people and politicans for the annual Labor Day parade when the annual Memorial Day parade was shunted to the Saturday before and was lucky to have a couple thousand watching. Yes, Toledo is a union-dominated city but still I felt their priorities were way out of whack.

Certainly today the unionistas of Toledo are out driving their trucks and their equipment festooned with the paraphernaila of Democratic politicians – they even get a visit from both Vice-President Biden and Ohio Governor Ted Strickland today. But closer to home we even see that same dichotomy because while Brian Murphy is touring the Shore today both Bob Ehrlich and Martin O’Malley are marching in Labor Day parades. (Obviously Maryland is a less hardline state; perhaps it’s because more union members come from the ranks of government employees compared to private-sector workers. My bet is most of the union participants will still be wearing the O’Malley green.)

Yet we sometimes fail to remember that without employers we would have no employees, and for many of those employers today is just another day of work to keep their businesses afloat during trying economic times. The relationship works both ways, and while workers create these shop owners invest time and money in the hopes of supporting their own families. And while you hear about the fat-cat CEOs who make millions, the vast majority of business owners are only among the middle class. We forget they have mortgages to pay and kids to send through college, and they scrimp and save like the employees do. Many pay themselves last so their employees don’t go without during tough times.

Therefore, it’s in our best interest to enjoy the day off if you have it, but remember that there are those working so you can enjoy the holiday. Perhaps the labor and toil of these job creators today will pay off in better opportunities for you or your family down the road so let’s celebrate them too.

Ehrlich today, Murphy tomorrow

Late edit: Bob Ehrlich will also be at the local GOP Victory Center (the old Hollywood Video) from 3 to 4 today.

It seems like baseball and campaigning go hand in hand. Last night at the Shorebirds game State’s Attorney candidate W. Seth Mitchell went the sack race route to get in front of the crowd (yes, Kim got video and I will upload it for the next FNV) and today it’s Bob Ehrlich’s turn as he will throw out the first pitch for this evening’s 5:05 contest and hang around with supporters for awhile afterward.

Meanwhile, fellow Republican challenger Brian Murphy continues his “Refuse to Settle” tour on the Eastern Shore today with appearances in Easton, Eden (at the Bordeleau Winery at 3:30), and the Ocean City boardwalk this evening. Tomorrow he’ll be in Cambridge meeting with local homeschoolers, attend the final Shorebirds game (2:05 tomorrow afternoon) and wrap up in Ocean City again by jamming with Johnny Bling at M.R. Ducks. (See, it pays to have a nicely detailed events calendar.)

For his part, Martin O’Malley will be walking in Labor Day parades in Greenbelt and Gaithersburg tomorrow. Nothing like shoring up the base when you don’t have significant opposition in your primary.

These visits should make for an interesting subplot for the conclusion of an otherwise mediocre Shorebirds season. Right now the Shorebirds are playing only to avoid losing 80 games for the first time since 1999 (that team was 58-80 and currently we are 59-79.) Of course, longtime Shorebirds fans know the very next year we went from worst to first by winning the 2000 SAL pennant. Perhaps Maryland Republicans will go from bitter losses in 2006 and 2008 to success this time around.