polling – Page 3 – monoblogue

Boda surges to lead in new Salisbury Council poll

Well, the results are in from my second Salisbury City Council poll, and the winner is… my advertising fund. Well, how else would one explain Muir Boda moving from a tie for third in the first poll from late January to first place this time? At today’s Chamber forum Boda confided he had seen a good amount of traffic to his website from here. (That’s called a hint. I don’t guarantee any of the other seven would have the same result, but there is an ‘ads’ tab above.)

In truth, the poll showed essentially the same contenders as before, although instead of what looked like a four-person race it’s now perhaps five as Joel Dixon made a solid upward move to close the gap on the frontrunners. Conversely, the one who may need to worry most based on results would be Orville Dryden. His good first impression may be fading, although he still looks primed to survive the March 1st primary. And the survivor out of the bottom three (Ford, Mitchell, Taylor) has a steep uphill climb to make in the final five weeks if this poll is any indication of eventual results.

This poll was a somewhat shorter effort than the last one but there were still 162 votes cast. The order of finish is listed here, with the previous poll finish, percentage and percentage change from the initial poll following:

(3 – tie) Muir Boda – 37 votes (22.84% – up 4.37%)
(3 – tie)Terry Cohen – 33 votes (20.37% – up 1.9%)
(1) Tim Spies – 30 votes (18.52% – down 0.76%)
(2) Orville Dryden – 25 votes (15.43% – down 3.45%)
(5) Joel Dixon – 20 votes (12.35% – up 2.71%)
(6) Bruce Ford – 6 votes (3.7% – down 3.13%)
(8) Laura Mitchell – 6 votes (3.7% – down 0.32%)
(7) Michael Taylor – 5 votes (3.09% – down 1.33%)

A few other notes of interest:

As you’ll see in my rundown of today’s Chamber forum tomorrow, the format and questioning were very different from the initial effort last week. It’s possible that, with two remaining forums next week (AFP and NAACP) the finished product between the two for PAC-14 may not be aired until after the primary and edited to cut out the two bottom finishers. It was hoped, though, that the editing would be done for Tuesday.

I finally caught up to Michael Taylor today and he apologized for not answering my questions. I may do an audio interview (you could call it a podcast) with him early next week. However, it probably won’t take the exact same form as the questioning I gave the other seven. He may remain the lone candidate in the race without a website or Facebook page, though.

Having the split forum before the poll hurt most of the candidates who participated in round 1 – only Terry Cohen increased her percentage from the last poll. Meanwhile, my top gainers were two who participated today.

I’m working on enhancing the poll and broadening its scope for the final effort before the primary. Stay tuned to see if my effort bears fruit.

On the O’s: guarded optimism

As spring training begins for the local hometown teams, it appears fans are cautiously optimistic about the Orioles’ chances – at least that’s how they polled here.

Let’s do a quick review: since losing the 1997 ALCS to Cleveland, the Orioles have been among the most mediocre of franchises as they’ve endured 13 straight losing seasons – in fact, the 70-win mark has eluded them the last four. But the majority of those responding thought the revamped Orioles, who have added power bats like Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and perhaps Vladimir Guerrero (assuming he passes a physical) would eclipse that number and maybe – just maybe – break that string of losing seasons.

But the optimism stopped there, as no one expected the team to win 90 games or make the playoffs. Perhaps that’s more due to the reputation of the American League East than actual talent level.

And there were a few who chose to be pessimistic, as 1/6 of those voting foresaw the moves blowing up in Andy McPhail’s face. They figured a 100-loss season wasn’t out of the question, and if neither Derrek Lee nor Mark Reynolds adjusts well to the American League, Vladimir is indeed in the coda of his career, and the pitching fails us it could happen. But I fall into the camp of thinking 81 or more wins is indeed possible. (Over 80% believed Baltimore should win at least 75 games.)

With the season now just around the corner, optimism is king and all 30 teams might fancy themselves World Series contenders. (Okay, maybe not the woeful – as in 57-105 last season – Pittsburgh Pirates. They’ve actually gone nearly two decades without a winning season, which is too bad because they play in a nice ballpark. And to think these two franchises tangled for a World Series crown twice back in the 1970’s – I remember the ’79 Series well although O’s fans might prefer to forget.)

Hopefully an improved major league teams pays dividends down the chain as well since the Shorebirds fans are overdue for a playoff team. I’ve seen one playoff game in six seasons here so consider me one who thinks it’s time!

The Orioles’ season starts on April 1 at Tampa Bay, with the home opener April 4 against Detroit. (Sorry about that home opening sweep by the Tigers; things will look up from there.)

Poll results:

62.5% believe the Orioles could finish with a .500 season (81-81)
20.83% foresee a 75-win season
12.5% think they’ll lose 100 games
4.17% believe they’ll only match the 66-96 mark last year’s team produced
No one saw the Orioles win 90 games, make the playoffs, or win the World Series

Cain raised to top in GOP poll

The former Godfather Pizza CEO pulled it out in the end, but a widely split GOP Presidential poll here drew votes for nearly twenty possible contenders. This goes to show that…we need to see just who will enter the field for sure, as Cain is the first reasonable contender to establish an exploratory committee.

This is how they finished:

Herman Cain (former Godfather Pizza CEO, radio host) – 10 (12.82%)
Gary Johnson (former New Mexico governor) – 9 (11.54%)
Chris Christie (New Jersey governor) – 8 (10.26%)
Ron Paul (Congressman from Texas, 2008 Presidential candidate) – 8 (10.26%)
Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House) – 7 (8.97%)
Sarah Palin (2008 VP candidate, former Alaska governor) – 6 (7.69%)
Rudy Giuliani (2008 Presidential candidate, former NYC mayor) – 5 (6.41%)
Michele Bachmann (Congressman from Minnesota) – 4 (5.13%)
Tim Pawlenty (outgoing Minnesota governor) – 4 (5.13%)
Mitt Romney (2008 Presidential candidate, former Massachusetts governor) – 3 (3.85%)
Donald Trump (businessman) – 3 (3.85%)
Mitch Daniels (Indiana governor) – 2 (2.56%)
Jim DeMint (Senator from South Carolina) – 2 (2.56%)
Paul Ryan (Congressman from Wisconsin) – 2 (2.56%) – write-in
Rick Santorum (former Senator from Pennsylvania) – 2 (2.56%)
George Allen (former Senator from Virginia) – 1 (1.28%) – write-in
Mike Pence (Congressman from Indiana) – 1 (1.28%) – withdrew
John Thune (Senator from North Dakota) – 1 (1.28%)
Haley Barbour (Mississippi governor) – 0 (o%)
Mike Huckabee (2008 Presidential candidate, former Arkansas governor) – 0 (0%)

If you look at your top 6 candidates in this poll, you’d find the TEA Party carried a great amount of influence along with the libertarian wing of the GOP (who would tend to support Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.)

But would all of them be viable? Time will tell, but if you look at the top contenders from 2008 there’s little desire for a rewarmed candidate. Since I don’t consider Ron Paul as an ‘establishment’ candidate, the top votegetter among the group was Rudy Giuliani with 5 votes. Even combining the other 2008 aspirants (including Paul) they collected just 16 votes, which is barely 20 percent of the total vote. Mike Huckabee was shut out.

The only 2008 names which seem to have support are Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, who didn’t run for the top job four years ago but was added to the ticket just prior to the GOP convention. She polled reasonably well in this trial, but those who believe the nomination is hers to lose may want to think again.

Over the next month or two we’ll likely see the field shake out a bit as some of the bottom-feeders (and maybe a top name or two) decide to take a pass. The remainder of the contenders will likely begin getting their teams together for the busy times one year hence.

Isn’t it a bit early for this?

Well, regardless of the fact the survivor of the process won’t know the final result for another 21 1/2 months, the polls have begun for the GOP nomination in 2012, with the winner most likely taking on President Obama that November.

Today Rasmussen released a poll which showed Mitt Romney has the early lead for the GOP nomination, with 24 percent replying they prefer Mitt at this nascent stage. Sarah Palin netted 19% while Mike Huckabee picked up 17 percent. The top contender who didn’t run in 2008, Newt Gingrich, had 11 percent while national newcomer Tim Pawlenty finished under the “undecided” (10%) with a 6% score. Ron Paul and Mitch Daniels rounded out the field.

One weakness in the Rasmussen Poll is that they somewhat arbitrarily picked the seven contenders, yet they point out that the leaders at this stage rarely end up with the nomination. As I recall, at this time four years ago we were supposed to have a rematch of the abortive 2000 New York Senate race between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Hillary was the last person standing between Barack Obama and the 2008 Democratic nomination, but Rudy was an early casualty in the GOP race.

This is notable about the methodology, though:

The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary.

In other words, they rely on an open primary of sorts. More tellingly:

Romney, Palin and Huckabee are essentially in a three-way tie among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Those who characterize themselves as somewhat conservative and moderate/liberal have a clear preference for Romney.

Yet Palin has the lead among TEA Partiers, and there’s no real way of knowing just how much influence they’ll have over the GOP nominating process in states with both open and closed primaries.

New Hampshire is a state with an open primary, and a straw poll was conducted there over the weekend – 273 Granite State Republicans scattered their votes among a total of 20 candidates. It’s not particularly surprising that Mitt Romney won, but 35 percent isn’t all that overwhelming considering he comes from a neighboring state and is a name well-known to “establishment” Republicans. Ron Paul was a distant second with 11 percent.

However, if you look at the candidates who could be considered the “darlings” of the TEA Party (Paul, Palin, Michele Bachmann, Jim DeMint, Herman Cain, Mike Pence, and Gary Johnson) you get just as much support as Romney drew – they add up to 37 percent. Once the TEA Party can coalesce around one or two candiates, the race will be joined.

It’s pretty amazing to think that only one of those mentioned (Herman Cain) has even taken the step to form an exploratory committee – the rest are still considering if and when to jump in. But surely over the next few months the final field will emerge, and it will be fun to see how the race shakes out.

How the poll goes

As you can see over to the right of this article, my “best local blog” poll is taking a hiatus for the holidays, replaced by an RNC poll that I’ll leave up for a few days. But I found the opening round results of my local blog poll quite interesting.

Last year, I had three finalists – afterthegoldrush, Salisbury News, and Twirling, Twirling, Twirling Towards Freedom. Since I only had twelve competitors last year, the first round of four polls cut the field to six (4 winners + 2 wildcards), then the semifinals cut the remainder in half (the two winners + a wildcard.) afterthegoldrush was a wildcard in the first round that survived, won its semifinal, and defeated Salisbury News 152-146 in the final poll (4TF received six votes.)

But in 2010 I expanded the field to 24, and since I want to maintain 3-way races the eight round winners will be joined by just one wildcard into one of three semifinals, with the three winners moving on. From here on out, just like the NFL playoffs, it’s win or go home.

Of the three who were in the finals last year, two have survived into the semifinals. Here is the list in seeding order, based strictly on the number of votes with which each won its individual round.

Random Thoughts of a Citymouse (191 votes)
Right Coast (175 votes – wildcard)
The Salisbury Grinch (93 votes)
afterthegoldrush (65 votes)
Salisbury Soapbox (56 votes)
Delmarva Shorebirds Blog (40 votes)
Twirling, Twirling, Twirling Towards Freedom (37 votes)
Delmarva Sportsmen (17 votes)
Delmar Dustpan (8 votes)

While many contenders garnered more than eight votes, they didn’t happen to be in such a weak first-round draw. That’s life. In the semifinals the rounds will be made as equal as possible.

This poll will return January 3rd with the first of three semifinals, with the winner being crowned later in January.

A return

It’s a slow news day (unless and until a catfight breaks out among the crazier sleep-deprived Black Friday shoppers) so instead I’m going to post a heads-up for an upcoming event.

You may recall about this time last year I began a poll for the best local blog. Well, this year it returns with an expanded field of 24 contestants including defending 2009 champion afterthegoldrush, which edged out Salisbury News in the final poll.

Beginning Monday I’ll start the first of eight first-round polling battles, with the 8 winners and top runner-up in votes advancing to three semi-finals which will begin after Christmas (hey, it takes awhile to run eight polls.) And since it’s all in fun and I’m being as fair as I can, I excluded myself from the competition again.

Except for two that are not currently linked, the competitors can be found among those linked as Delaware and Eastern Shore blogs on the right sidebar (but not all of them – I tried to include those which regularly update and that I knew were from the lower Shore and slower lower Delaware.) Not all of them are political, but I excluded a couple personality-based blogs from the mix.

So let’s see what my local readers (which run about 1/3 of my audience) like among my local peers. Check back often to see who’s winning and help out your favorites!

54-40…so fight!

Yes, I reach back into the realm of long-forgotten campaign slogans (embellishing one used by President James K. Polk in 1844) because it’s the result of a so-called poll out from the Washington Post. According to their poll, Bob Ehrlich trails Martin O’Malley by that very 54-40 margin. It reflects a similarly flawed Baltimore Sun poll which has the former governor down 52-38.

I don’t believe these polls for a second, and this political observer explains why.

But despite the fact we conservatives have a less than inspiring choice for governor, don’t let these papers fool you into staying home for this election. It’s an age-old attempt to disillusion the conservative voters, and even some so-called conservative pundits like Michael Gerson try to convince us “the wave has crested.” It’s only crested if we believe it is so.

Yet there are signs this frustration has taken hold on a statewide level. Republicans were supposed to be flocking to the polls and couldn’t wait for November 2. But as of this morning 3.09% of Democrats have participated in early voting compared to 2.82% of Republicans and just 1.42% of unaffiliated voters. (On the bright side, the Constitution Party leads with 3.63% participation – too bad they only have 606 voters registered as such statewide.)

But locally the news is better. In seven of the nine Eastern Shore counties the GOP is indeed ahead in early voting, and Queen Anne’s County there’s virtually a tie. (Caroline County is the lone holdout, although the margin in the Democrats’ favor is fairly small.) Maybe it’s because we’re mostly outside the orbit of the Baltimore-Washington media axis, but there seems to be more of that trademark GOP excitement here.

And that’s important because we have local races which need to be won. With strong candidates across the board, we have the opportunity to make the Eastern Shore delegation to the General Assembly entirely Republican – in fact, I recommend it. Why vote for candidates who talk like they’re conservative and pro-business every four years when you can have the 24/7/365 real thing?

If Martin O’Malley wins, we need people in the General Assembly who will tell him to go pound sand with his sure-to-come tax increases, kowtowing to the Obama agenda, and embrace of illegal immigrants as “new Americans.”

Since we’re going to be stuck with Obama for the next two years, we need Congressmen and Senators to place his statist ambitions in check by defunding those things he held dear like Obamacare and the remaining slush fund stimulus while paring away the bureaucratic red tape.

It’s all within reach, and we can make a difference. Let the overconfident I-95 corridor Democrats stay home – we need to fight for what is right in Maryland.

A new (non-political) poll

I haven’t done polling in awhile but I thought it would be interesting to poll my readership on an issue near and dear to my heart – the Delmarva Shorebirds.

Every so often, the opportunity exists to change affiliations and, while I believe we are under contract to the Orioles for 2 or 3 more years, perhaps the grass may be greener and the on-field product better if we switch to another parent club. Many fans may not know that the Shorebirds haven’t always been an Orioles farm team – they began by playing out an existing contract with the Montreal Expos for one season. I’m also told that the Bluefield Orioles will have to undergo the process of finding a new parent because the O’s wish to have just one rookie league team next season so at times there is change in all minor league systems.

Thus, the poll basically asks about the direction we should follow – there is no right or wrong answer and the results are just to sate my curiosity. Look on the far right-hand side beyond the candidate links and Amazon ad and you’ll find it; the poll will be open for 10 days or so.

Rasmussen Poll: Ehrlich climbs ahead

After slowly gaining on Martin O’Malley through polls taken in February, April, and June, the latest Rasmussen Poll of Maryland voters placed Bob Ehrlich ahead of incumbent Governor Martin O’Malley for the first time this year by a 47% to 46% margin.

And in even better news for the Ehrlich camp, support among Republicans for Ehrlich is far stronger than Democrats for O’Malley. 87 percent of Republicans favor Bob, while O’Malley can only claim support of 71% of Democrats – over 1 in 5 Democrats favor Ehrlich. Unaffiliated voters also prefer Ehrlich by 15 points.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Wargotz revises and extends polling remarks

While it wasn’t a formal apology the campaign of U.S. Senate candidate Eric Wargotz released a statement this afternoon, parts of which are published below:

As per the suggestion of the Tarrance Group, The Wargotz for U.S. Senate Campaign has provided additional details subsequent to the initial press release announcing Dr. Wargotz’s lead in Baltimore County CD1.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

As an aside, I wonder how Jim Rutledge would do?

Wargotz campaign drops ‘attempt to mislead’

Heeding the admonition of The Tarrance Group, a national polling firm, Eric Wargotz’s campaign has removed a “misleading” poll citation from its website.

Wargotz’s Senatorial campaign trumpeted the data in a Wednesday press release claiming “Wargotz leads Mikulski by 3% in recent poll.” While the data was indeed correct, Tarrance warned that as a basis for a realistic snapshot of the county’s electorate the poll couldn’t be trusted because of its small sample size of 41 people and the fact it only encompassed the portion of Baltimore County lying within the First Congressional District.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

New Rasmussen Poll has governor’s race as dead heat

Late yesterday afternoon Rasmussen released its latest polling of the Maryland governor’s race and the results should be encouraging to Bob Ehrlich.

After trailing in two previous polls Ehrlich has closed the gap and now sits in a virtual tie with incumbent Martin O’Malley 45 percent to 45 percent.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)