Where I went wrong (and right)
Okay, the results have come in and I got some sleep and a day at my outside job to consider them, so let’s go back to my prediction post and see how I did.
I was actually correct in the order of presentation on the top four Presidential candidates statewide, but Mitt Romney exceeded even the pollsters’ expectations when he won just under half the vote. I suppose that inevitability factor may have affected the results because it appears our turnout in 2012 will end up about 20 percent less than it was in 2008, when the race was effectively over by the time we voted. Because few people like to admit they’re backing a loser, I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of voters changed from Gingrich to Romney at the end while other Newt backers stayed home. It also proves Ron Paul has support a mile deep but an inch wide since both well underperformed what I thought they might. I actually missed Santorum by less than a point, although it surprised me that Rick only won two counties (Garrett and Somerset.) I would have thought Rick would carry 4 to 6 of the more rural counties, including Wicomico. But once Romney outperformed it was over.
And you may wonder why I had Fred Karger at 2 percent. I thought he would do better because, as a gay Republican candidate in a state which was bound to be a Romney state anyway, voting for him may serve as a message about the gay marriage referendum likely to appear in November. Instead, he got only less than 1/10 of my predicted total and finished dead last. I also managed to garble up the exact order of the also-rans, but with such a small sample who knew?
That same statewide trend seemed to affect my Wicomico result too because Romney outperformed and Gingrich/Paul suffered for it.
And while I didn’t predict it, I find it quite fascinating that 12 percent of the Democratic primary voters selected “none of the above” rather than Barack Obama. However, that statewide average varies wildly from under 3% in Prince George’s County, about 5% in Baltimore City, and just over 7% in Montgomery County to fully 1/3 of Democrats in Allegany County and a staggering 34.7% in Cecil County. In the last comparable election with a Democratic incumbent (1996) President Clinton only received 84% of the vote (onetime perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche got 4%) but no county came close to getting 1/3 or more of the ballots against the President.
I didn’t miss the “barnburner” aspect of the Senate race by much as it wasn’t called until nearly midnight. But Dan Bongino carried 34% of the vote and won by 6 points over Richard Douglas. (I called it for two points, but I underestimated the impact of the little eight.) I think Joseph Alexander gets the advantage of being first of the ballot, and that accounts for his second straight third-place finish. The rest? Well, the order wasn’t all that correct but they were mostly only off by a percent or two and I got last place right. And to prove it was a close race, both Bongino and Douglas carried 12 counties apiece.
What mystifies me the most isn’t that Rich Douglas carried Wicomico rather easily, but how much support the other eight received – they collectively picked up almost 100 more votes than Douglas did! I would love to know the mindset of the people who voted for most of these minor candidates. I can see a case for Robert Broadus based on the Protect Marriage Maryland group, but what did the others really do to promote their campaigns? At least I know Douglas had radio spots and reasonably good online coverage.
But I did peg Ben Cardin to within 4 points statewide.
On some of the Congressional races: despite the fact I screwed up the percentages, at least I correctly called the Sixth District winners as Roscoe Bartlett and John Delaney. Both did far better than I expected, and I think part of the reason was that both their key challengers’ campaigns imploded in the last week or two. A week ago we may have had something closer to the numbers I predicted. Think Rob Garagiola and David Brinkley may commiserate anytime soon?
The ‘relative ease’ I suspected for Nancy Jacobs was even easier than I thought. I guess Larry Smith didn’t have nearly the campaign as I believed because he came up short on my prediction about as much as Nancy Jacobs was over – I wasn’t all that far off on Rick Impallaria.
While there is a slim chance I may have the First District Democratic race correct, I was surprised that Eastern Shore voters didn’t get all parochial and support the one Eastern Shore candidate, John LaFerla, over two from across the Bay. He only won Worcester, Kent, and Queen Anne’s counties, and I would chalk most of that up to Wayne Gilchrest’s endorsement. Kim Letke was about 6 points better than I thought and LaFerla was six points worse because he way underperformed on the Eastern Shore. I suspect no small part of that underperformance by LaFerla was his extreme pro-choice stance, as getting the NARAL endorsement doesn’t play well among local Democrats. There is a 136 vote margin out of about 23,500 cast.
Out of the rest, the only one I got wrong was the Eighth District, and I think that was a case of better name recognition than I expected for Ken Timmerman and less of a vote split among the three candidates from Montgomery County.
As for the Democratic incumbents, I could have wrote “over 85%” and still been right, with the minor exception of Steny Hoyer getting 84.8%.
So this is how the races for November will line up. Sometime this evening I will update my sidebar to reflect this:
- U.S. Senate: Dan Bongino (R) vs. Ben Cardin (D – incumbent)
- District 1: Andy Harris (R – incumbent) vs. Wendy Rosen (D – pending absentees and possible recount)
- District 2: Nancy Jacobs (R) vs. Dutch Ruppersberger (D – incumbent)
- District 3: Eric Knowles (R) vs. John Sarbanes (D – incumbent)
- District 4: Faith Loudon (R) vs. Donna Edwards (D – incumbent)
- District 5: Tony O’Donnell (R) vs. Steny Hoyer (D – incumbent)
- District 6: Roscoe Bartlett (R – incumbent) vs. John Delaney (D)
- District 7: Frank Mirabile (R) vs. Elijah Cummings (D – incumbent)
- District 8: Ken Timmerman (R) vs. Chris Van Hollen (D – incumbent)
So out of 19 contested races I predicted 15 correctly, and I stuck my neck out on percentages a few times as well. I missed Romney by 8 points statewide and 9 points here in Wicomico County. I think the “inevitable” mantle made the difference.
But with Dan Bongino I was only 2 points off statewide. Probably my worst guess, though, was being 19 points off with him in Wicomico County. It’s worth noting that the Douglas late-game media strategy seemed to pay off on the Eastern Shore since he carried six of the nine counties and would have carried the nine-county Shore if he hadn’t been blown out in Cecil County by 1,250 votes. Bongino carried five counties with over 40 percent of the vote (Cecil was one along with Anne Arundel, Frederick, Queen Anne’s, and Montgomery) while Douglas could only claim two such counties (Dorchester and Talbot.)
I saw this possibly ending up as a rerun of the 2010 race where Eric Wargotz had more money while Jim Rutledge had more grassroots (read: TEA Party) support. Obviously media reaches a LOT more people quickly than grassroots efforts do in a statewide race, and the money to buy media is a key element of a successful campaign. That’s where Eric Wargotz succeeded, because Jim Rutledge didn’t raise a lot of money and Eric had a sizable bank account to tap into.
But as it turned out the Douglas bankroll wasn’t all that large, and an abbreviated campaign with a spring primary didn’t give Rich quite enough time to build a support base of his own. Those three or four extra months Dan worked on his campaign (at a time, remember, when better-known prospective opponents like Wargotz and Delegate Pat McDonough were considering the race) turned Bongino from an also-ran into a nominee. By succeeding enough to nationalize the campaign Dan made himself into a formidable opponent to Ben Cardin. Had this been a September primary, though, the result may have been different.
Now we have just under seven months until the general election, a chance for the campaigns to take a quick breather and begin to plot the strategy for November victory. For Democrats, it will be a hope that Obama can fool people into believing he’s an effective President and having long enough coattails. On the other hand, Republicans need to point out the Obama record while spelling out their own solutions – that’s where we’ve been lacking in some respects. We need to give people a reason to vote FOR us rather than AGAINST the other SOB.
So start working on those platforms, ladies and gentlemen. If we are to win, we need to not be a pastel Democrat-lite but present bold colors to Maryland and the nation.
2012 campaign comes to Salisbury as Gingrich gives a ‘different’ speech
They were lined up an hour early at Holloway Hall at Salisbury University to witness a little history – for the first time in recent memory the presidential campaign came to the lower Eastern Shore.
And true to the advice given by one university official who stressed the school wanted to promote “critical thinking” without heckling or other inappropriate disruptions, the audience of about 200 inside the hall was very well-behaved. The parents of these SU students should be quite proud of how their charges acted inside the hall. Once the question-and-answer period began it was obvious that not all in the room shared Gingrich’s worldview but the discussion was extremely civil.
New sponsor and new milestone
It’s an exciting day at monoblogue, made even moreso by the fact the presidential race came to Salisbury and I was there to cover the event. Yesterday I finalized a long-term sponsor to the site, so I encourage you to check out TEA Party Posters at rightposters.com. Welcome aboard John!
And late last night I found out that my site had finally broken through the 300,000 barrier in Alexa rank – when you figure this is somewhat of a regional website that’s pretty rarefied air. I’m just a little outside cracking the 50,000 rank for the first time insofar as U.S. rank goes as well. (Update: made it today!)
My rankings have been going down (like golf, lower is better) because people have been coming to my site of late. Readership has been surging with a number of well-read posts on Trayvon Martin, the Maryland presidential primary, and my U.S. Senate endorsement being just a few.
And look for more exciting stuff in the days to come!
WCRC meeting – March 2012
It was a last-ditch effort to garner votes, and we’ll see how much it helps next Tuesday night. But U.S. Senate candidate Richard Douglas was introduced to the Wicomico County Republican Club and was rather well-received.
Of course we did our usual bit of club business, reciting the Lord’s Prayer and Pledge of Allegiance before I read a rather lengthy accounting of the February meeting. We even had a hiccup in the treasurer’s report that I pointed out. But none of it dissuaded the Republican who boldly proclaimed for his opening, “I’m here because I want to beat Ben Cardin.”
To illustrate his point, Douglas took us back about three decades. When he left the Navy in 1979, he took his GI Bill benefits and enrolled at the University of South Florida where a professor told him the Soviet Union would be eternal and America would have to learn to live with it. Well, we saw how that turned out, and while there are those in Annapolis who would have us believe that one-party rule in Maryland is eternal as well, that’s not necessarily so.
Rich compared Ben Cardin to a brick in a wall – as the mortar is wearing away, soon the brick would drop from the wall and the remainder of the house would follow. And Douglas wasn’t going to be timid in his role, either, warning “Martin O’Malley is going to be one unhappy fella” when Rich wins. “(He’ll) wish he’d never heard my name,” continued Douglas, because he has a “duty to speak” as a Senator. Douglas promised to be our voice and vote in the Senate.
Weekend of local rock volume 45
Just like I did for the first rendition, last Saturday I was at the Bands for Baby Ava II benefit held at the Pour House in Ocean City. (This time Kim tagged along as well.)
Unfortunately, I have to extend my apologies in advance to the three bands Kim and I didn’t stick around for: Slackjaw, Square Root Syndrome, and Witches Brew will have to wait for another day for me to see them. For whatever reason we were just whipped.
There were a few different wrinkles for round 2. First of all, there were fewer items donated so the auction was done as a Chinese auction where tickets were purchased and dropped into a bag so the winners were picked randomly.
Remind me to bring Kim along to the next Chinese auction, though – she won one of the items!
They also began the show a LOT earlier so that some bands who had performances later that evening could play. But first up was a band made up of up-and-coming youngsters who are taking advantage of their chance to get in front of an audience – this was Parental Guidance.
One thing I noticed (although it’s not in the picture) was the video cameras recording the show. Well, perhaps these guys are their own worst critics.
Obviously it’s a good learning tool, but the band was well received by those who came when the show first got underway.
The next band indeed had a show across the bridge later that evening but wanted to perform.
Normally I’m not a huge fan of rock/rap combos, but Bride Dressed in Black was quite impressive, performing both originals and a unique take on ‘We Are the Champions’ as a highlight of their show. I could see why they were in demand.
Lime Green was another band that had a second engagement and played early.
It had been awhile (far too long) since I had seen them, but I recalled at the time they were a three-piece. So obviously there’s been personnel changes, and they mixed a broad range of cover songs with the originals ‘Pemberton Park’ and ‘Psychedelic Dream.’
The tone changed somewhat as the lone acoustic act, Jason Lee, took the stage.
Lee is best known as the lead singer and guitarist for Crookedfinger, but stuck to covers for this solo performance.
I noticed that there was quite a follwing gathering around for the next band, the Justin Crenshaw Band.
With the possible exception of a cover of Poison’s ‘Every Rose Has Its Thorn’ JCB played the part of a modern country band. Apparently they have a large following about their Charles County base, and several made the five-hour drive to see the band play their 45-minute set.
These folks up front liked them as much as Kim did, so I’ll give them a second picture. Me, I’m not a big fan of country music but they were certainly good musicians who put on a solid show.
Now I expected a definite difference when Dean took the stage, and for the most part I was correct.
The one criticism I would have of them may not have been their fault, but on the slow songs it was hard to hear the vocals. The first two songs and the last couple songs they did were definitely harder-edged than what they did in the middle, and I thought those came off better.
One other thing which left me a little disappointed but wasn’t completely unexpected was the smaller audience. The Pour House was packed for edition 1 but there was more elbow room this time. I took this while Dean was playing, about 6:00.
But while Dean was a new experience for me, I had a pretty good idea what to expect from Gravy.
Of course, they did not disappoint. And they are another band which made a personnel addition because I didn’t recall keyboards in their midst last time I saw them. It made a difference in what they could play, although they kept some of the other songs I remembered as well.
That pushed the show past its halfway stage as 13 bands were scheduled, and unlike the initial show there weren’t the single-shot acts between bands, perhaps because Skip Dixxon and crew were trying to cram in thirteen bands in as many hours.
Next up was a band that played in the first rendition as well, Abbey’s Cage. (This time I apparently spelled it right.)
They did the heaviest set of the night, with songs by Tool, Linkin Park, and Drowning Pool punctuating their set. That’s why the bodies were hitting the floor, as you can see in the picture.
It slowed down somewhat for Asphalt Surfers, who played more of a blues-rock set.
It seems to me they played quite a bit of ZZ Top, too, which makes sense because they’re a three-piece group.
We were tired, but managed to stick around to see Semiblind play.
And because they’re friends of ours I’ll give them individual shots, too.
One thing which stuck out about the Semiblind set was Michele singing ‘I Will Always Love You’ as a Whitney Houston tribute.
Something else struck me as we listened, though. Obviously I’ve followed this veteran band for quite awhile, and there’s no question that a cover list has to be freshened up from time to time. What I noticed was that, because Michele is now becoming a sought-after DJ in her own right (she’s known in that profession as DJ Siren) the band’s playlist is evolving to more closely match the songs she plays a lot at those gigs. People want to hear ‘Red Solo Cup’ and the band learns it, for example. If nothing else, it goes to show that despite Semiblind being on their second bassist and probably sixth or seventh drummer since I’ve come to know them, there’s a lot of talent there.
I will grant that I don’t travel the world to see the various local music scenes, but the one we have right here has a pretty deep pool of good musicians who deserve our support – not just because it’s how they scratch out a living, but because they also unselfishly give their time for a cause. They didn’t charge a dime for doing the Baby Ava benefits, and between the two they raised almost $10,000 for the family.
But I think the well may be a little dry for the time being in terms of fundraising. Next week Skip will have his annual Spring Luau at the Pour House, with 10 bands on the bill currently. That should be a good show.
2012 Wicomico County Lincoln Day Dinner in pictures and text (updated)
Update: Rich Douglas responds to my assessment of his statement, see end of column.
We were expecting around 100 to show up, along with most of the 10 contenders for U.S. Senate and a host of local Republican elected officials. Well, two out of three ain’t bad, as Meat Loaf used to say.
I don’t have the official numbers, but I would guess our attendance were closer to 120. But we had just four U.S. Senate contenders make their way down here, with Robert Broadus showing up well before the 6 p.m. opening.
Those candidates who came had a spot to put their literature. However, we did not have a visit from Ron Paul – just local supporters.
I would say of the four Senate candidates who came, Broadus had the most stuff, with Dan Bongino and Rich Douglas bringing a more modest amount. David Jones had no literature (or support staff; he was truly a one-man operation.)
And we had a few ideas for promotion of the event, with some of the patrons taking advantage of this one.
The who’s who of local Republicans came out for the event, as well as several from around the state – included in that complement were MDGOP 1st Vice-Chair Diana Waterman and both candidates for National Committeewoman, Nicolee Ambrose and Audrey Scott.
As always, we had President Lincoln make his appearance at the event, too. He brought a small regiment of troops for protection.
There were also reenactors in each corner of the room as well as Civil War-era photographer Mathew Brady taking snapshots of the proceedings.
“Our country is in great peril now,” said President Lincoln. What I’ve found interesting each year is that the President brings the problems of 150 years ago to compare with the modern day. “In my opinion, we would do better to leave the Constitution alone,” Lincoln echoed from long ago, “It can scarcely be made better than it is.”
“My hope is that our Republic can be redeemed,” he concluded, “and that you will kick the scoundrels out.”
In speaking to Lincoln beforehand, he remarked that the portrayal gets a little easier every year because he’s getting more wrinkled. But he does a good job in setting the mood each year.
And this guy does a good job in setting up the affair each year. As always, sporting the red (naturally) blazer, Wicomico County GOP Chair Dave Parker set up the rest of the program.
As it turned out, we had a total of eight featured speakers; four Senate candidates and four state elected officials. We also heard briefly in between from Mark McIver, who is the Lower Shore liaison for Andy Harris. Andy could not attend our dinner this year.
Each Senate candidate was given about seven to eight minutes to speak, while local officials were allotted five. Now one would think that having the Senate candidates speak first, before the local officials, would be a mistake, but I didn’t see anyone heading for the exits before the benediction to close the proceedings (from Wicomico Central Committee member Dave Goslee, Sr., who also did the invocation.)
Dan Bongino had eight minutes but took five to deliver an uplifting message that “Maryland is not a lost cause.” He was quite feisty, as a matter of fact, telling those assembled that “it’s time to pick a fight…this is our home.” The statists have no entitlement to the state, he added.
While he didn’t get into many policy specifics, Dan said that conservative ideas have won before, citing Ronald Reagan’s re-election. (George H.W. Bush also carried Maryland in 1988.) What we need is a “clear delineation” on the issues, said Dan, and if we can get that “we can win this.”
And when all his friends told him he should move to Virginia from New York, Dan instead chose Maryland because “I saw Maryland first and I fell in love with it.” Now he’s made it home.
Robert Broadus was in the Navy. When he got out, he “saw a government that was not following its charter, the Constitution.” Furthermore, his representatives were “unresponsive” and weren’t listening. So he became involved and aware.
While he was “raised to vote Democrat” by virtue of his skin color, Broadus asserted that, in Maryland, “too many vote their identity” and we need to change the narrative of Republicans as rich and white – after all, President Lincoln helped end slavery as the first Republican president.
Yet the NAACP, supposedly an advocate for his race, instead supports things like illegal immigration and same-sex marriage, he continued. And when Ben Cardin came to Prince George’s County to announce his support of Obamacare, backed by the purple shirts of the SEIU, everyone – even the Republicans – was applauding. But he wasn’t.
“I stood up to Ben Cardin two years ago,” said Broadus, and “we can’t let that destruction of liberty continue.” His agenda was simple: repeal Obamacare, end the IRS, and protect marriage. The state should stop pushing a social agenda.
Broadus has run for Congress twice before, but is perhaps best known in Maryland as an advocate for protecting the concept of marriage between one man and one woman – a value system most in the room agreed with wholeheartedly.
I found it quite telling that Rich Douglas brought a book with him; a book I had a blurry picture of, unfortunately. The tome contains the rules of the U.S. Senate, and this dogeared volume was several hundred pages thick.
And while the last attack on the Bill of Rights was at Fort Sumter under President Lincoln, Douglas opined, this White House has also attacked the Bill of Rights as well. But Rich’s task of the evening was “to persuade you I am the right candidate to defeat Ben Cardin.”
He attacked the incumbent on three levels. First of all, the Senate has a lot of input on national security, but Douglas was “alarmed” by the lack of military veterans in the Senate. Bolstering his credentials in that respect was his endorsement by former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.
Secondly – and this is a point he’s made frequently – Ben Cardin has never worked in our private-sector economy. He’s been an elected official since 1966, fresh out of law school. Someone who understands the private sector may have convinced Caterpillar to bring its new plant and 1400 jobs to Maryland – Douglas “would’ve camped out at the front door of Caterpillar” to bring the jobs here. (Imagine that in Salisbury.)
But most important was “backbone.” Douglas worked for the late Senator Jesse Helms, and Helms had principles, said Douglas. But Maryland has no Senate representation because Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s priorities are “high priorities” for Cardin. That’s why we have spent nuclear rods in the open at Calvert Cliffs instead of at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain, Douglas said.
As I noted about the Senate rules book, another advantage Rich claimed was knowing how the Senate rules work and using them to our advantage.
But perhaps the most controversial thing Douglas said was that the “only good conservative outcome” of the Supreme Court battle over Obamacare was that it be upheld. Congress has greater discretion under the Commerce Clause, he argued.
It was interesting that after the event was over he and Robert Broadus were having a friendly debate over that very subject.
David Jones actually spoke the longest of the four candidates. Now it’s obvious that, at just 32 years of age, he doesn’t have the pedigree the others do so that wasn’t his message.
Jones is a working man, who makes $32,000 a year and is the single dad of a four year old son. He conceded that it’s “damn near impossible” to run and win as a 32 year old Republican in Maryland.
But then again, Bob Ehrlich won in 2002. Of course, part of that was the fact that Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was an “insult to the people of the state” and Ehrlich was a “good leader.” But Martin O’Malley didn’t insult the Democrats so he won. Republicans have to “speak for all,” Jones added.
David jumped into the race because he believes “nothing is being done for the majority of the country…I’m tired of it.” And those people he encounters as part of his job “don’t believe it works anymore” either. The people need leadership, Jones believed.
But while he certainly played the role of a disaffected youth well, I never heard exactly what he stands for. Certainly he’s a likable guy, and he asked the bartenders afterward what they thought of his remarks, but I’m curious whether he can flesh out a platform next week at a Worcester County candidate forum he’s planning on attending.
After going over a list of his upcoming fundraisers, State Senator Rich Colburn announced he now officially represented about 49,000 of Wicomico County’s residents thanks to redistricting. The Democrat majority didn’t look at any alternative redistricting bills in the first 45 days of the session.
Instead, to keep up with potential 2016 Presidential rival Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley’s top priority was getting same-sex marriage passed, Colburn said. This prospect even affected the timing of his State of the State address, which was late because they “needed him here” rather than out traveling the country.
And apparently the new definition of millionaire was someone who made $150,000, since those who make that amount would begin losing tax deductions. Throw in the proposed gas tax, the septic bill – a “feelgood bill by the Chesapeake Bay Foundation” which won’t address the bulk of the problem – and the flush tax, and there’s a lot of damage which can yet be done in this session.
Colburn saved the last part of his enmity for the Waterkeepers Alliance, a group which is suing the Hudson family of Worcester County with assistance from the University of Maryland Law School. Colburn noted “North Carolina would love to have” our poultry industry and “every farm (in the country) is jeopardized” by the Waterkeepers’ efforts. Rich has a bill pending which would compel the University of Maryland Law School to reimburse the Hudsons $500,000 for damages. “I will continue to fight against the injustices of the University of Maryland Law School,” he vowed.
After she sang ‘God Bless America’ as part of the opening festivities, Delegate Addie Eckardt returned to the microphone to give a more sobering report, although she was “excited to see friendly faces.”
Republicans in Annapolis were “working very diligently for a way to offer an alternative budget proposal” as they have for several years now. All we need to do is “take a break” and let the revenues catch up, she assessed.
But when entities are coming up and asking for huge increases in the capital budget – which is paid for mostly from property taxes and proceeds from bond sales – she was “concerned (about) how we’ll survive.”
“There needs to be discipline in spending,” she concluded.
But while Eckardt and Colburn were rather subdued in their remarks, Delegate Mike McDermott had the delivery and cadence of a Pentecostal preacher during Sunday service. When reminded of the five minute limit, McDermott quipped “I don’t listen to the Speaker of the House, I certainly can’t listen to you.”
“We need to re-adopt the founding principles of the Declaration of Independence,” Mike thundered, as “liberty is a gift from God.” He believed that “your enemy (in Annapolis) has overreached…when (they) have to pray to God to get 71 votes.”
But all over the state, “people are infuriated with the overreach of government,” Mike continued. “They fear the people.”
Candidates for office this year need to tie themselves to the two referendum efforts going on. McDermott cited a poll taken which showed 96% of Marylanders thought they paid too much in taxes, which was awfully coincidental with the 96% of transportation money going to serve the 4% of the state which actually rides mass transit, while our roads and bridges crumble.
He also announced that Friday they saved the state $100 million. Well, they are on their way as two bills Mike sponsored are winding their way through the House. He singled out Wicomico County State’s Attorney Matt Maciarello for his help on HB112.
And because of this overreach by the other side, Mike concluded, we can divide and conquer the opposition. Then we can wistfully look back and tell our grandchildren about the time Maryland was a one-party state. In the meantime, it’s time to “take back our state.”
And poor Charles Otto. He drew the short straw of following McDermott, saying “we may as well pass the plate right now” but on the other hand he would be the last word.
In his typical low-key style, Charles implored us to get the vote out since we have a “so-called leader in the White House that needs to be replaced.” As part of that GOTV effort, Otto encouraged us to check in often at mdpetitions.com and work to get the same-sex issue on the ballot. Our GOP delegation “represents the values we grew up with,” Otto said.
But he also noted one thing the previous speakers didn’t bring up – the possible upcoming shift in state pension obligations to the counties. Charles claimed that, for Wicomico County, it would be a $4 million hit and taxes would almost certainly need to be raised locally. (As I recall, each penny increase in the property tax per $100 of assessed valuation equals about $750,000 to the county. So it would mean about a nickel’s increase.)
Yet maybe, concluded Charles, the opposition party which has already spent a lot of political capital on passing same-sex marriage will be fiscally responsible.
I’m not going to hold my breath on that myself.
It’s worth mentioning in closing that I had the chance to speak at some length with Nicolee Ambrose – not necessarily about her run for National Committeewoman but about the political scene in general. Now I agree with some things regarding the two who seek the post and I disagree with some. I haven’t made up my mind yet but speaking with Nicolee helped to lean me in a particular direction. To be fair, I also spoke more briefly with Audrey Scott before the event.
Early on Saturday, I wasn’t sure how we were going to pull this off. We had no idea how many Senate candidates would come and the person who originally was supposed to do our sound had to work. But the event turned out to be a success thanks to my cohorts on the WCRCC and all who attended. We’ll review this edition when we next meet and start working on a bigger and better one for 2013!
Update: Rich Douglas’s campaign communications director Jim Pettit sent me the following from the candidate:
Monoblogue provides a vital service for all Marylander’s, namely, covering important political events that mainstream media often misses.
Such was the case in the February 27 coverage of the Wicomoco County Lincoln Day Dinner.
I was quoted about the Supreme Court and its relationship to Congress. Let me elaborate.
Information is power. The Constitution’s Commerce Clause says Congress has the power to regulate commerce between the several states. In the courts, President Obama cited Congress’s Commerce Clause power as the authority for the insurance mandate. Over the decades, the US Supreme Court (including Marylander Robert Brooke Taney) has held that Congress has significant leeway to regulate commerce under the the Commerce Clause. So on Obamacare, the main question for the US Supreme Court is likely to be: is Obamacare a proper exercise by Congress of its power under the Commerce Clause? At this point in our logic-walk, it is vital to remember a fundamental principle of conservative judicial thought: Courts should not substitute their will for the will of the legislature. And please: don’t take my word for this — read Judge Robert Bork. My point at Salisbury was that the conservative wing of the Supreme Court (assuming that they, too, believe what Robert Bork believes) should not be expected to substitute their will for Congress’s will unless they find that Congress clearly violated the Commerce Clause with Obamacare. I’m not sure they will do this. To put it another way: if the Court is NOT offended by this ‘new’ Commerce Clause power asserted in Obamacare, and in keeping with Bork’s philosophy, the mandate will be upheld.
This tosses the hot potato back to Congress. For men like Bork, that’s where it belongs in the first place. I think this is what will probably happen. Here’s my Salisbury point: I don’t count on the Supreme Court to save our bacon. So Maryland will need a Senator who has the guts to take the hard votes on Obamacare after January 2013. Now here’s a new point: Maryland also needs a Senator who genuinely understands the Constitution, who understands how it has been interpreted, and who has taken the time to explore and understand conservative judicial philosophy before talking about it.
As a Senator I will vote to repeal Obamacare.
R. Douglas
US Senate Candidate (R-Md).
Now, allow me to add something. As an assistant in covering the event, I recorded each candidate’s speech and took notes on what I heard last night as I compiled the post into the wee hours of the morning.
I’m going to go ahead and add links to all four Senatorial candidate speeches so you can check my work:
Just think, we paid $40 for the privilege. Of course, you may get the occasional comment or two from me.
Charity begins at home, but continues onstage
I wrote this piece last month for a print venue, but the plans for it fell through. So I’m sharing it here with you today. But the nice thing about posting it here is that I can add the links.
Recent months have seen an enhanced awareness of charitable endeavors around the area. We always have the Thanksgiving food drives and the Salvation Army puts out their red kettles every Christmas, but what I’m referring to are the one-off events which galvanize a community – one case in point, the Extreme Makeover: Home Edition stops last fall in our local area. Thousands of local volunteers descended on both the Sussex County site and the Johnson-Goslee home in the small Wicomico County community of San Domingo to aid those chosen to benefit.
But there are always people and families in need around the area, and oftentimes it’s through no fault of their own – a house fire, crippling medical condition, or tragic auto accident place them in a perilous financial situation with little prospect for help. That’s where the community of local musicians steps up time after time, donating their efforts to the charitable cause. Need to find entertainment for a benefit? Put out the word and you’ll probably have a dozen bands beating down your door to volunteer.
I’ve attended many such events, but a recent one was put together over the space of a few weeks to benefit Ava DelRicco. The toddler was seriously injured in a December auto accident in Ocean City and has spent the time since at Johns Hopkins in a long, slow recovery process. While her prognosis is good, the family still needs financial help. Ten bands gave their time for “Bands for Baby Ava,” sharing the bill for nine hours in order to help the DelRicco family.
And it’s not always for local tragedies. After the Haitian earthquake and Japanese tsunami, benefit shows were organized and those proceeds donated to relief efforts for people who attendees will likely never meet nor receive thanks from. But they came and gave just the same.
Some of these one-off fundraisers have become annual events. After Terri Clifton’s son Chad was killed in Iraq in 2005, the next year two bands participated in a fundraiser to begin a foundation created in his memory. It was popular enough that another was scheduled for the next year in a larger venue with more bands, and the Concert for a Random Soldier has grown to become a popular Memorial Day weekend event. Similarly, after succeeding in her fight against breast cancer, Michele Hogsett began the Save the BreastFest to thank the Delaware Breast Cancer Coalition for their help in her case and to give them financial support. After a rocky start in 2009 due to a forced postponement and change of venue, the event will celebrate its fourth edition next September as a opener to Delmarva Bike Week. In both instances, several of the bands participating return to play these shows year after year.
Yet the bands aren’t the only ones who should be given kudos, as local businesses step up to the plate and donate items like the food, the venue, or even door prizes in order to draw people to the events. But most of those who attend these shows are there to see the bands, and I thought it high time to use this space to thank them for their willingness to support the community. They should be appreciated as much as the businesses that also participate in making Delmarva a better place to live.
My role as a ‘journalist’
From time to time, there is a discussion about the role people like me play and a post from last Friday by Melissa Clouthier talks about a recent court case in Oregon where a blogger was sued for libel and lost in part because she was denied the media shield protection a “regular” journalist receives. As Clouthier writes:
This case disturbs me as a blogger. I’ve had sources feed me stories – nearly every blogger has sources. There should be shield law protection. Period.
She also notes:
Right now, bloggers are exposed. If a big corporation, a rich/important individual, the government or someone in power wants to harass a blogger, he simply has to sue them into compliance. Even if the powerful has no case, the lawsuit itself can put an independent journalist out of business.
Melissa also links to an old acquaintance of mine from my days in Toledo, Maggie Thurber. Maggie adds a little bit of context to the discussion regarding this public service that bloggers do:
We have several local examples of people doing their part, including (one woman) who attends Toledo City Council Meetings, takes notes and then shares them with us here on this blog.
It doesn’t take much, since many are already attending meetings across the county – and anyone who share their meeting notes here is welcome to do so.
As we’ve found out, much to our chagrin at times, the mainstream media can’t be everywhere and even when they are present they don’t always cover the event well. For example, I have been at probably fifty Wicomico County Republican Club meetings over the last several years, where public officials utter statements which can be newsworthy. I believe there has been one instance where print media was present, but to be honest I forget who it was for. And while Salisbury City Council and Wicomico County Council have received regular coverage, the press tends to ignore smaller communities, political forums, and the like where news can be made, too.
Unfortunately, I’ve also found that the role of self-appointed journalist doesn’t always suit some people, and perhaps that’s the reason we haven’t earned that First Amendment protection. (There are a few plaintiffs locally who may agree with that initial statement, considering their dealings with another local blogger.)
While we don’t have the rights that “mainstream” journalists have, to be good at what we do and to legitimize what’s still a maturing news resource we still have the responsibility to be accurate and honest in both our reporting and the disclosure of our point of view. There’s no question I come with a conservative slant to what I write, and I don’t deny it. But that doesn’t relieve me of the responsibility to be as accurate as possible when I put on my reporter’s hat.
Certainly, though, there is one part of the statement which Melissa brings up and I allude to a couple paragraphs above. If someone with money or power is “wronged” by a blogger, they certainly have the means to destroy that blogger even if he or she is in the right. It’s sort of the inverse to the scenario where a company settles out of court with a plaintiff to avoid the prospect of losing a much bigger settlement at trial.
The Crystal Cox case is illustrative of what can happen to a blogger. Based on one post out of several regarding the plaintiff, a federal judge ruled against her defense that she was entitled to her state’s media shield law. U.S. District Judge Marco Hernandez wrote:
(T)he record fails to show that she is affiliated with any newspaper, magazine, periodical, book, pamphlet, news service, wire service, news or feature syndicate, broadcast station or network, or cable television system. Thus, she is not entitled to the protections of the law.
In the interest of disclosure, Hernandez was slated to be a Bush appointee, but he was held out by the end of Bush’s term and renominated by President Obama last year.
Now I have written before about the difficulties some bloggers have with financial support, but this is another potential landmine we all face. Not only could we use some financial assistance from those who could find us useful to advance a political agenda, but the possibility of more rulings like Judge Hernandez spewed forth means we need to find a way to legitimize ourselves in the eyes of the public.
Unfortunately, it was one post out of hundreds Cox wrote which did her in, and there’s the possibility that anyone who says something which gravely offends someone in a position of power can be in the same boat. That possibility is one which chills the national discourse, and shield laws should expand to allow those who blog the same rights as any other freelance journalist who toils for the print media. Of course we shouldn’t be able to get away with libel, but those bloggers who can prove themselves to be responsible at their craft despite their independence shouldn’t be penalized, either.
Weekend of local rock volume 44
You can subtitle this one, “the Bands for Baby Ava benefit.”
At some unknown future point in another venue, I’m going to point out all the good the local musicians do for the community.
That spirit of giving was on display last week – a full month after Christmas – when a number of bands and assorted one-off impromptu groups gathered to help raise money for Ava DelRicco, a toddler who was seriously injured in a December auto accident just a piece up the road from the Pour House in Ocean City. Since then she’s been recovering at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore.
So as the Pour House mascot looked on approvingly, we were treated to almost 10 solid hours of musical entertainment from the various bands and DJs Skip Dixxon and Bigler.
And the order of presentation was fairly interesting, as a couple of the bands already had other gigs planned for the day but felt in their heart they needed to come and participate.
So you had a more experienced group who would otherwise be one of the headliners leading off. Paul Lewis and Y-Not had an evening engagement across the Bay Bridge so they were the first band in this instance. They also made one of the more popular donations to the silent auction, which I will get to in due course.
They were one of the few bands who played some originals as well, which was a good touch considering many of the participants specialized in covers of various rock genres.
And by the way, the Sons of Patriots motorcycle club came in as a group right behind me as the event started – about a dozen or so to help fill the room nicely to start the show.
I think the next group has a collective mancrush on Sublime, since there were two of their covers I heard in their set.
Sunny Side Up began as half of the youthful group The Hooplas, which, as you may recall, made their debut at the 12 Bands of Christmas back in December. They picked up some vocal help for the latter part of their set.
The place was beginning to fill up quite nicely at this point, and it was heartwarming to see the community support.
That open mike feel to the event was a recurring theme. But I also learned an old musicians’ trick, thanks to Bryan Russo.
That guitar case isn’t carelessly laid on the floor. It’s by his foot with a microphone inside so when Russo taps his foot it becomes his bass drum. Very multitalented and smart.
Brian brought a bluesy feel to the event with his attire and his playlist, which also featured a number of originals. He also announced that he would donate a portion of the proceeds from the CDs he had for sale at the event to the cause.
He was the one-man band at the event. But we’re not quite done with Bryan yet.
As Russo was clearing out, Blake Haley made a request: to play a song. He wasn’t on the bill but wanted to make his presence known, too.
And since Bryan hadn’t completely packed up and left he helped Blake out with his song.
Next up was Easy Action, a group of classic rockers who reset the stage with a more traditional feel.
As I said above, it was an open mike night of sorts. So Witches Brew singer Susan Witchey stepped in to help Easy Action with vocals on a couple tracks.
Her band didn’t participate either, but she stayed most of the night to support the cause.
Then it was time to put the host to work playing his drum set.
Livin’ the Dream did their normal hard rock show, with the obligatory tribute to KISS as part of the set. And Susan helped out with a song or two on their set as well.
This picture is in there just because I like it.
I’d heard this lady’s name mentioned a number of times but last week was the first time I’d seen Lauren Glick play.
Her band dug back to the era of the late sixties and early seventies for most of their covers, with a country-tinged set.
But that’s what brought people to the dance floor.
After another one-song cameo by the Bob Blair Project (sadly, I have no photo of that) we next heard from Familiar Soul.
And they played some familiar songs that kept the party going, as the dance floor was filled during their set, too.
After Familiar Soul played, I saw an opportunity for a little calm before the storm.
This may be the only month out of the year you can take this shot at 7 p.m. on a Saturday night without a truckload of people in it.
I decided to do something a little different with the Phantom Limbs. Here’s each member of the trio separately.
In the frenetic manner that this trio plays their mosh pit of originals crafted from surf, punk, and rock, it was almost easier to get individual shots, although the group one came out okay as well.
Next up was the hard-rockin’ Dust n’ Bones, with a more modern rock playlist than most of their predecessors on stage.
The last three groups had more of an up-to-date playlist than the earlier groups. High Test came from across the bridge to play the show.
And the Prince George’s-based band probably made a lot of fans with an active show. I was sitting when I took this – the singer was standing on two chairs.
Closing out the show was Vivid Season. We know they bring the hard stuff.
But before they played, we had the conclusion of the silent auction. As I noted up top, Y-Not helped out with this PRS guitar and also donated several other items as a package.
Despite their playoff failure, Ravens items were in high demand, too.
Here’s a look at some of the other items up for bids. There were two other smaller tables, too.
You could even wear your support.
The really good news is that, between the $5 cover charge, the pair of 50-50 raffles, the silent auction table, the various other raffles they had, and straight cash donations, the event raised over $7,000 for the family.
Even better news is that there will be a “sequel” event on March 10, with a venue to be announced. With as many people as there were at the Pour House, they may need a bigger place.
Scott reveals support group
For most, the contest to represent the Maryland Republican Party nationally as National Committeewoman has no meaning and is just another example of the “inside baseball” of party politics. But those who are astute should see the parallels between this race and the power struggle within the Republican Party on a national level.
To review, last month current state National Committeewoman (and onetime MDGOP Chair) Joyce Lyons Terhes announced she would not seek another four-year term in the post. To date two contenders have announced their intention to seek election – former YRNF Chairwoman Nicolee Ambrose and former state party Chair Audrey Scott. Anyone who’s paid attention to this space has seen me rake Audrey Scott over the coals for her participation in a rally supporting an increase in the state’s gasoline tax and, secondarily, for locking up the Transportation Trust Fund to prevent it from being raided every time Martin O’Malley needs to balance his budget. (The latter I’m fine with, but not the gas tax increase. Correctly prioritize what we have first.)
Audrey Scott, though, has a lot of backers who don’t mind that misstep with six members of the MDGOP’s executive board, six of the 24 local county Chairs, 24 of 43 Delegates, and 5 of 12 Senators on a list of endorsers Audrey has on her Facebook site devoted to the race. On the other hand, Ambrose has fewer elected officials supporting her (only Delegates Donna Stifler and LeRoy Myers, Senator J.B. Jennings, and U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino have expressed their support for Ambrose) but far more “likes” on her campaign’s Facebook page (143 vs. 17 for Scott.) Perhaps that’s a generational thing, but in any case the votes which will count are coming at the party’s Spring Convention April 27-28 – over three months from now.
(This upcoming state convention will also feature the election of ten Delegates and ten Alternate Delegates to the Republican National Convention. I unsuccessfully ran for this in 2008 but will take a pass in 2012 since I have something far more important to attend to that month and money enough for just one trip. We also elect a National Committeeman but thus far I’m unaware of anyone who will challenge current officeholder Louis Pope.)
Movin’ on out
As I’ve said from time to time on this forum and others, Maryland is the first place (besides, to a limited extent, my college alma mater) where I lived by choice. And the main reasons I moved here, as opposed to other prospective places where I could have worked like Jacksonville, Las Vegas, or Phoenix, were the somewhat rural setting and the idea that this area had plenty of room for growth. Needless to say, when compared to those urban areas, Salisbury was by far the smallest location I considered.
There are serious economic handicaps about living here which have always existed more or less, but at the time of my arrival they were held somewhat in check by the state government in place in the fall of 2004. Sure, Bob Ehrlich was no doctrinaire conservative but most of his ideas for revenue enhancement were limited to increasing user fees, and Maryland participated fully in the national economic boom which was taking place during the Ehrlich era here. Unemployment for the state was just 4.4% when Ehrlich took office and 3.6% when he left – the rate never exceeded 4.6% during his tenure. Obviously things are different now, and Maryland reflects the national situation in that respect. Oddly enough, though, the other three places I was considering were among the hardest hit by the recession, so while Salisbury never quite reached that exhilarating height this fact made the low point easier to handle.
Who will fund the resistance? (updated)
As I mentioned last night, I added a few new websites to my sidebar links. One interesting add was a site called Zilla of the Resistance, which I had originally run across via a link from The Other McCain. But what sparked my interest again was a link to her from another Maryland-based site called The Vail Spot, which I also link to. Both Vail and Zilla have something in common which I’m sure they aren’t proud of, but has been an issue: the writers have had recent financial hardships, for various reasons, and both were assisted by the generosity of their reader base.
I’m certainly not going to be the first to bring up this point, but who knows? Maybe I can be the last.
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