November 2010 – Page 4

Friday night videos – episode 50

What better way to celebrate half a hundred than kicking out the jams!

Normally I stick to local groups but this is an exception. I dedicate this to all Maryland Democrats and those who voted for them.

I know the song is called ‘Bound for the Floor’ but I always refer to it as the Democrat song.

Another staple of these musical voyages is the Christian metal rockers Not My Own. They get a little more melodic to open this one called ‘Sink or Swim’.

In that same slow-to-fast vein, the Delaware-based band 13:1 plays an old song called ‘Angel’.

A few weeks back I featured a local band called Naylor Mill. This video is from an acoustic show they did about a year ago here in town.

I hope the lady got over her cough…the perils of live music I suppose.

I want to reach back to my own archives and grab a couple gems I think need to be played again. The first one is from Crookedfinger.

The other archive clip (it’s funny I use the term when my Youtube channel is barely a year old, but it is what it is) comes from my friends in Semiblind and their take on ‘Hotel California.’

They’ve been a staple of my ‘Weekend of Local Rock’ series, which sort of gave you the idea I like live music around here.

Finally, I’m debuting this one recorded last month at the Good Beer Festival. Closing out the festival on the main stage was the hard rock of Lower Class Citizens with ‘Keep On’.

This was a little bit different version of the song but it still rocked. And ‘Keep On’ is what this series will do, whether it will be for another 50 episodes or even more.

Setting the table

I wanted to make sure I had a “serious” article today before I did FNV (which should be a killer edition since it’s the 50th episode and will be all music.)

We all know that 2012 is a Presidential year, and the obvious questions become who will be the Republican standardbearer and whether he or she will face Barack Obama or some insurgent challenger. (Bonus question is whether Barack Obama claims, “I’ll whip her ass.”)

But there will be other races on our local ballot to pay attention to.

First off, there is a municipal election in Salisbury coming up next spring that will decide whether Mayor Jim Ireton gets more friends or foes on City Council. Considering the blogosphere’s interest in that race (as longtime readers may recall, it was a rare period of agreement among the key bloggers of the time that the best ticket was Louise Smith, Terry Cohen, and Tim Spies – we got two of the three but Gary Comegys knocked off Spies) I would imagine that the slightly revised and expanded list of blogging stars will have its own set of favorites. I’m already aware of one previous candidate who’s challenging for sure and rumor has it another may join those ranks.

If something interesting develops on the Eastern Shore of Virginia where state elections will be held I certainly will mention that too. Who knows, my friend Melody Scalley might decide to try again for state office.

Once we get through that, it will be a long slog to the Presidential election two years hence; however, that monotony will be broken up by our state’s primary election early in 2012. I don’t think it will be quite as early as it was in 2008, but a best guess is that Maryland may again pair up with other states in the region to try and create a compelling primary – if only for the sake of making it difficult for a challenge to be put forth to Barack Obama and/or diminish the TEA Party influence on the GOP side.

But an early primary also creates other headaches – for example, it certainly means that redistricting will have to be finished in this year’s General Assembly session and any court battles over it expedited. That probably hurts Republican chances to some extent, although it’s likely they’ll get a body blow in the first place because Democrats will be drawing whatever lines they can cook to their advantage. (It wouldn’t surprise me now to see Andy Harris lose some or all of the lower Eastern Shore and the First District moved deep into Baltimore City. They will see to it he’s a one-termer like Frank Kratovil was, unless the GOP finds some stones and a great legal team.)

It also hurts terribly GOP chances of finding a well-known challenger to Senator Ben Cardin; certainly a TEA Party member would find himself underfunded in the primary unless he or she starts yesterday. The little upside is that the one-on-one campaigning period would be much more lengthy and if Republicans can avoid a Wayne Gilchrest 2008 situation they could get some traction against the first-term Senator but career politician.

So it’s not like political blogging will go away, but this interregnum between elections and over the holidays will give me a chance to look at some national issues and do a little bit of fun stuff, too. In other words, don’t look for the candidate links to return anytime too soon but return they will when the time comes. I’m holding off on the ‘Campaign 2012’ category for a little while as well.

As the song goes, there ain’t no rest for the wicked.

Something to watch for

It doesn’t seen possible, but shortly after the holidays we will once again be subjected to what I call the “90 Days of Terror,” better known to most as the Maryland General Assembly session. While Governor O’Malley pledged the budget would be “balanced without tax increases” that doesn’t mean he won’t be hunting for new sources of revenue. And even if he doesn’t, municipalities which have felt the pain for the last few years won’t be spared from the budget axe.

That’s where this comes in.

You’ll notice that O’Malley is being cagey. Perhaps he won’t increase taxes, but I’m sure he’d quickly sign this enabling legislation. The Maryland Municipal League (MML) was also making sure they had the votes rounded up.

This didn’t come up in any forum I attended but I’m sure the MML is buttonholing election survivors to see if this is doable.

So cities and towns are crying poverty. But what such enabling legislation would do is place those who live in municipalities in situations where they are quite possibly triple-taxed by the state, county, and city. Of course, eventually that drives people and businesses out of the cities and into unincorporated areas of counties.

Why is this important here in the Salisbury area? Because our City Council approved a Resolution over the summer expressing its support. Here is Resolution No. 1977.

It was approved on a 3-0 vote: Cohen, Shields, and Smith in favor. Campbell and Comegys did not vote.

While this resolution was approved a few months back, there’s little possibility of the actual legislation being enacted by the Maryland General Assembly before the next City Council election next spring. Therefore, this Resolution can and should signal the willingness of those who approved it to raise taxes on Salisbury residents who are already being slammed with several consecutive years of property tax and water/sewer rate increases.

Of course, the MML states the case of cities and towns who are scrambling to make their budgets stretch out through the fiscal year. But this resolution received little attention in the midst of a state election campaign and it may belie the rhetoric of those who would otherwise claim to be taxpayer-friendly budget hawks.

In 2011, the seats of Terry Cohen and Louise Smith will be up (along with Gary Comegys’ seat), and chances are both will seek re-election (Shanie Shields is in office until 2013.) Their willingness to support the mechanism for a tax increase should be a campaign issue and a legitimate question to be asked of others seeking those City Council posts.

The aftermath

Well, for one, my page looks a lot emptier. No need for the election links anymore and I took my monoblogue Accountability Project page private. It will return for the 2011-14 session at the appropriate time, although I have some ideas now on how to improve it and make it more user-friendly.

Obviously some people voted against their best interests. For example, how could the voters in Frederick County dump a former Legislative All-Star in Alex Mooney for a guy whose score will likely be less than half of his?

Locally, we replaced a retiring state Senator with a nice MAP rating in the 70’s with a guy who will likely be in the teens or twenties – is that very smart? Hard to believe the same voters who elected two conservatives in Mike McDermott and Charles Otto would fall for the absolute “I’m just as conservative as you” b.s. Jim Mathias spouted in all those mailings, brought to you courtesy of the Baltimore boys and special interests.

Instead of gaining State Senators, the GOP lost two so now they have an even dozen. At least we may have gotten the Democrats under 100 seats in the General Assembly, but 43-98 is little better than 37-104.

So I guess we regroup and look at victories. We did contribute our little bit to the 60-plus seat sea change in the House by electing Andy Harris. It will be interesting to see what Frank Kratovil does in the lame-duck session and how he votes. Think his staff will be courteous if you call to complain?

Perhaps this is a Pyrrhic victory, but the Maryland GOP can finally move out from under the shadow of Bob Ehrlich now. We have candidates who ran statewide and may have bright futures as conservative lights in Jim Rutledge and Brian Murphy – we can build from their experiences. (I’m not sure Eric Wargotz quite fits in the “conservative” mold so I didn’t include him.) Nor should I exclude Charles Lollar, who did plenty to piss off Steny Hoyer – and that’s a good thing. We actually may be seeing the beginnings of a statewide bench, even in defeat.

What needs to happen in the next four years, though, is for the Maryland GOP to take a conservative stand on fiscal issues and appeal to the pocketbook. (Yes, we all have social concerns but we need to get into a position of influence first.) Look at what other successful states like Texas do and bring those ideas to the hopper here in Maryland. Sure, they will be shot down and locked in the committee chair’s drawer at first but activism can make them prevail.

Simply put, the time is not now to be silenced but instead to become the squeaky wheels.

I wrote a few days ago about the situation in 2014. With Martin O’Malley out due to term limits, there’s going to be a number of statewide candidates itching to move into Government House and abandoning their previous posts. It’s going to be difficult for Democrats to enforce discipline and tell certain politicians who have spun their wheels for two terms in statewide office or served awhile in the General Assembly or Congress to wait their turn.

And we all know nature abhors a vacuum. Guess which party can position itself as the fiscally conservative alternative?

Of course, we have a number of traps set for us. Redistricting, since it will be controlled by Democrats, will place us at the hugest of disadvantages. Look for heretofore “safe” Republican districts to become as large as the law allows and attempts made to spread out the small pockets of Democrat voters (like in towns such as Salisbury) among more than one district to negate the GOP advantage. Conversely, areas like Montgomery County will have small districts and try to isolate GOP-leaning areas within a sea of Democratic voters.

We also aren’t going to see a friendly press anytime soon. How much of an effect do you think the phony polls which had Bob Ehrlich down 14 points had on GOP turnout across the bay?

It seems to me that the great GOP turnout locally was somewhat negated by Democrats “staying home” – in other words they started with O’Malley and kept pushing the “D” button down the ticket. The only exception seemed to be Matt Maciarello. I thought Bob Ehrlich would need 25% of Democrats to win, but when his number is only in the 50’s in Wicomico County it’s apparent that he only scored a few points among Democrats. While O’Malley won the same five counties as he did last time, Ehrlich’s percentage went down in 18 of 24 counties. I wonder if a more conservative candidate (who presented a clearer choice and didn’t have a previous record) would have done better.

In the meantime, we have work to do. The next opportunity to make a difference could be as soon as tomorrow.

Oh, one other observation while I have your attention.

I read a criticism on The Salisbury Grinch about the candidate videos other local sites did and how poorly they were seen. In truth, many had under 50 views – by comparison, the AFP protest video I did had over 1,200 because it was picked up nationally. If you totaled up the viewership of the 20 videos he cites, it still doesn’t match the number which saw mine because it was exposed to a wider national audience through Pajamas Media.

It seems to me that for all the heat not a lot of light was shed. One cannot win an election by internet alone and perhaps these candidates would have been much better off spending the time recording an interview making phone calls or knocking on doors. Obviously they didn’t realize it at the time and perhaps wanted to make sure they got on that newfangled internet bandwagon.

We as bloggers often think that we have the eyes and ears of the community, but in many cases these interviews were more to show how important we were as opposed to focusing on the candidate. When I used a series of candidate interviews over the summer from the Right Coast blog, the reason I liked them was because it wasn’t about personality. Joe Ollinger’s video was similar because he narrated it himself. (His channel got over 1,300 views but the video is no longer available.) Since my specialty isn’t sitting in front of a video camera sharing my thoughts, I chose not to create any videos.

So we bring down the curtain on Election 2010, with the next up being Salisbury’s local municipal election next spring. After the holidays we’ll know how that race will shake out as three City Council seats (Cohen, Comegys, Smith) become available. I’ll surely devote some coverage to it but there will be other important things going on as well, so don’t stray far now that the election is over.

Goodbye to flip-flop Frank!!

So far the key news of the night is that all is right with the Eastern Shore as far as Congress is concerned.

Once again, our area of the state will have a CONSERVATIVE voice as part of the NEW MAJORITY in Congress. Just a few minutes ago (thanks to the Harris win in Wicomico County) the race was called for Andy!

And all those people who thought Matt Maciarello was too inexperienced to be State’s Attorney; well, guess what? He has four years to grow on the job as your new State’s Attorney as he spanked W. Seth Mitchell.

I’m also going to depart from normal protocol to reveal that the new head of the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee is Dave Parker. Joe Collins is the new Vice-Chair, Bob Laun remains as Treasurer and this writer is the new Secretary.

Since Frank is doing his concession speech I’ll break for now.

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Update 12:30 a.m.

It looks like Rasmussen wins again – currently there’s a 10-point margin between Bob Ehrlich and Martin O’Malley, 54-44. So we appear to be stuck with O’Smelley for another four years. Maybe Brian Murphy was right? I knew it was over when I saw early voting totals with Bob Ehrlich in the 50’s – 56% of the vote in Wicomico ain’t gonna make it.

It’s no surprise Barb Mikulski got 60% of the vote in the Senate race, but props have to go to Green Party candidate Kenniss Henry – she got 1.14% of the vote and as I recall getting 1% on any statewide race ensures ballot space for the next cycle. So Henry keeps the Green Party on the map and wins the third-party derby. Sounds like a good legacy to honor one’s daughter with.

I guess the Democrats pushing the Libertarian really worked, huh? Hey, Richard Davis got almost 4% of the vote – too bad that seemed to come out of Kratovil’s total since he lost by 13 points. Can you say bitchslapped?

Turning to local races, it’s not unexpected that Rich Colburn won re-election by a comfy 20 points. Can we shift some of those to Michael James? He only needs 214 votes to pass Jim Mathias and there are still 2 precincts out. That will certainly come down to absentees and you hate to see James lose two nailbiters in a row, particularly since it looks like the Democrats may gain three State Senate seats.

In the House of Delegates, all the incumbents won (which sucks in the case of Norm Conway and Rudy Cane, two miserable excuses for representatives who should’ve been ousted) but boy did Charles Otto lay the wood to Mike McCready! And I hope Marty Pusey tries again in four years, when Mike McDermott will be able to carry her over the finish line. Norm Conway, you may as well retire. Conversely to the Senate, it looks like the GOP will pick up perhaps five House seats – including McDermott, who’s the first Republican to represent Worcester County in, well, ever?

Looking at Wicomico results, it looks like Eric Wargotz could at least carry this county – he’s just 19 votes down pending absentees. But I suspect that margin will widen a bit.

I don’t think Rick Pollitt will lose a 571-vote margin with absentees, but boy he may wish he lost after he sees his County Council. If Bob Caldwell hangs on to a 45-vote lead, the County Council will be 6-1 Republican and essentially they will run the county. Now they can pass anything they want and even if Pollitt vetoes the measure they can easily override the veto. This is huge. The new blood of Bob Culver and Matt Holloway will hopefully be more conservative than the two men they replaced, Democrat Bill McCain and Republican John Cannon.

So this is just about how it ends, although I hold out hope Michael James prevails. Always I want more, but I think our fair county is in pretty good hands now because Rick Pollitt is effectively neutered.

And we can celebrate now that Andy Harris will be representing us in Congress!

The forgotten commercial

You have to wonder how many potential votes were lost when the television station “forgot” to air this. Perhaps all the Delaware and regional bloggers can pick up the slack.

We the People of the First State from Friends of Christine O’Donnell on Vimeo.

As a reminder, I’ll not be moderating comments until late tonight at the earliest since I have a House of Delegates race to help win.

The Battle for America 2010: Democrats push Libertarian in MD-1 with phony mailings

Democrats and dirty tricks go hand in hand, even in deep blue Maryland.

Showing their desperation to pump up the flagging candidacy of freshman Democrat Frank Kratovil in an R + 13 district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has sent out a series of mailers over the last week to conservative members of the district asking if Libertarian candidate Dr. Richard Davis, a dentist from Hurlock, is “too conservative?”

It’s obvious that Beltway Democrats recall how the First District was only carried by Kratovil in 2008 by 2,852 votes over Republican Dr. Andy Harris, with Libertarian Davis picking up 8,873 votes – or 2.5% of the total. All three are on the ballot again so it’s obvious this effort is to use the Libertarian alternative to peel away conservative support for Harris and make Davis again become the spoiler in the race.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

It’s all about turnout!

Those of you who know me know I like to play with numbers. And in a day that’s all about numbers, it’s important to know that working the numbers up one side or down the other makes a big difference.

Let’s use this recent Maryland Poll and election data for an example. It’s the poll which had Bob Ehrlich down 5 points based on a particular turnout model. But what if turnout projections are way off?

Over the last two state elections (2002 and 2006), this was the actual turnout statewide.

2006: Republican 62.75%, Democrats 59.3%, Green 47.65%, Libertarian 46.69%, Constitution 47.61%, Populist 29.91%, unaffiliated 41.83%

2002: Republican 67.44%, Democrats 62.94%, Green 55.19%, Libertarian 46.08%, Constitution 45.82%, Reform 41.15%, unaffiliated 45.25%

For the sake of this argument, though, I’m just going to lump the minor parties with the unaffiliated as these polls do.

Finally, here are the latest monthly voter registration figures from the state Board of Elections.

Republicans – 920,181
Democrats – 1,948,008
Green – 8.349
Libertarian – 8,828
Constitution – 571
unaffiliated/other – 562,670

Taking these numbers and using the 2006 turnout model (poor for the GOP) this would be the voting universe.

Republicans – 577,414
Democrats – 1,155,169
unaffiliated/other – 242,789

With the 2002 turnout model (a little better for everyone) this would be the voting universe.

Republicans – 620,570
Democrats – 1,226,076
unaffiliated/other – 262,639

The next set of numbers is based on the Maryland Poll. Assume for every 100 voters that the following proportions vote for Ehrlich or O’Malley – it’s a number based on the percentages given plus proportionally dividing the undecided and refused among the groups:

Republicans – 90 Ehrlich, 10 O’Malley
Democrats – 19 Ehrlich, 81 O’Malley
unaffiliated/other – 54 Ehrlich, 46 O’Malley

So, based on the two above turnout models this is what the numbers would be:

A 2006 turnout gives Ehrlich 870,261 votes and O’Malley 1,105,111 votes.

A 2002 turnout gives Ehrlich 933,692 votes and O’Malley 1,175,993 votes.

Based on either of the last two turnout models Ehrlich is a loser and won’t have much in the way of coattails for other local canddiates.

But let’s make up another turnout example. How about a turnout (using the BoE numbers) of 80 percent GOP, 60 percent Democrat, and 50 percent unaffiliated/other? If the TEA Party is really out there this is easily doable.

Here, then, is the new voting universe:

Republicans – 736,145
Democrats – 1,168,805
unaffiliated/other – 281,335

Since the other parties all have a gubernatorial candidate we’ll assume they vote straight party line and not factor them into the count.

Using this voting total model and the Maryland Poll results we get a much closer result; Ehrlich gets 1,036,524 votes and O’Malley 1,149,761. It’s then up to the Ehrlich camp to get to a better result of 25% of Democrats and 60% of independents because with those proportions and 80% GOP turnout he wins – and probably picks up the General Assembly seats he needs to have a vetoproof minority. (Bob could win with near 100% GOP turnout as well if all other numbers stayed the same.)

Now let’s take this more local, looking at the four Lower Shore counties. All of these counties have Republicans at a numeric disadvantage as far as voter registration, so let’s say the Democrats turn out 60 percent of their voters. This would be the GOP turnout needed to negate the advantage (if voters voted straight party line, of course):

Dorchester: 89.44%
Somerset: 99.22%
Wicomico: 76.84%
Worcester: 68.08%

The only counties where it’s statistically impossible to overcome 60% Democratic turnout are Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Charles, Montgomery, and Prince George’s. (Needless to say, it’s likely O’Malley will carry those counties but as you can deduce that can be overcome statewide with disciplined and heavy GOP turnout.)

So it is important for Republicans to be just as excited to vote (or get their friends who are GOP, conservative independents, or thoughtful Democrats to vote if they’ve voted early) as they were when this campaign started. Don’t let the bastards in the press get you down because we can win.

On a different note, I’ll probably not post here tomorrow since I’ll be working a poll for a great candidate in Marty Pusey, then kicking off the next election cycle as part of the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee – we’ll be sworn in tomorrow night at the GOP Victory Center. Look instead to Pajamas Media, where I’ll be part of the national coverage team and deliver updates as needed.