Public Policy Polling

Hogan leads in first inning

At last we have a scientific poll to determine who is the top dog among Republican voters, and the big winner is…undecided.

I know that belies my headline, but an OpinionWorks poll for the Baltimore Sun found 68% of Republican voters hadn’t made their mind up yet. Of those expressing a preference, the poll looks like this:

Larry Hogan – 13%
David Craig – 7%
Ron George – 6%
Charles Lollar – 5%

Doing some quick math and extrapolating the numbers, the primary would come out like this:

Larry Hogan – 42%
David Craig – 23%
Ron George – 19%
Charles Lollar – 16%

In other words, I would be pretty close to my 60 percent statement from the other night.

According to the Sun, the poll was taken from 1,199 likely Maryland voters over last week (Saturday through Wednesday.) 499 of them were likely Republican primary voters, with 500 likely Democratic primary voters backing Anthony Brown by a significant 21 point margin over Doug Gansler, with Heather Mizeur just 4 points back from Gansler. (40% are still undecided, though.) Margin of error on both polls is 4.4 points, so in actual terms all four GOP candidates are within the margin of error at this point.

OpinionWorks is the Sun‘s resident pollster, and they recently did a poll suggesting an additional $1 per pack tobacco tax would be acceptable to state voters. (They didn’t call me, or the “no” would have been larger.) Based on their body of work, they would seem to be a more left-leaning pollster, sort of in the same vein as Public Policy Polling. At this point, though, there’s no real reason to suspect they would have their finger on the scale of the Republican race.

Of course, we didn’t get any direct polling of possible matchups, such as Brown vs. Hogan, which is unfortunate because there’s no way to find out whether Larry’s more or less populist, anti-establishment message is selling. He’s been good at criticizing the current lieutenant governor for both actions and inaction, but Hogan hasn’t completely spelled out an agenda on key issues like education and the environment. Does he tack to the center and risk alienating a large portion of his base like his former employer did?

There’s also the aspect of name recognition. Back in November I wrote about a Goucher College poll measuring how well-known the various candidates were. It still seems to track well, given that the Democrats were more well-known at the time and now have far fewer undecided voters. Indeed, a current 28-point difference in undecideds matches up well with November’s 31.7 point name recognition gap between Anthony Brown and David Craig. (Larry Hogan was not part of the November poll.) Once people begin to pay attention to who the players are, the polls will start moving up for the various candidates.

My last observation is wondering whether Hogan’s success is akin to a “convention bump” because he’s announced so recently. A poll taken in March or April will help to determine this. I think Larry is indeed the leading contender, but I don’t think he’s really getting nearly twice as many votes as any of the others in the field – this is why I compared the results to giving up a 3-run homer in the top of the first. As people begin to get to know Larry Hogan on the campaign trail, he will either break the game open or allow the opposition to catch up.

One extra seat

I received an amusing pictorial e-mail today from the Democratic National Committee. I guess when you’re targeting low-information voters you need plenty of pictures.

But it shows just what’s at stake in 2014.

Never mind that the poll the Democrats cite (from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling) pits these Republicans against a “generic” Democrat – once an actual candidate is selected the numbers generally go down. It’s also a simple registered voter poll, and may not accurately reflect the electorate in the region. (No one’s ever oversampled Democrats to get a desired result before. </sarc>)

The PPP survey is sort of like the generic ballot polling an outfit like Rasmussen does, where they pit the broad base of Republicans vs. the broad base of Democrats. At this time the numbers are even, which suggests not much will change. (This is particularly surprising given the negative coverage House Republicans have endured throughout the Obama ~~temper tantrum~~ ~~shutdown~~ slowdown.) Bear in mind as well the PPP survey was conducted in the first few days of the Obama/Reid shutdown, before many major developments in the story.

So it’s important to cede no ground to the Democrats. And history isn’t on their side – with the exception of 1998, where Democrats picked up 5 seats, the opposition party to the President has added seats in Congress in every second-term midterm election since 1952. The range was from 5 seats in 1986 (Reagan) to 49 seats in 1958 (Eisenhower) and 1974, the post-Watergate Ford election. 1966 was another watershed year, with incumbent Democrats under Lyndon Johnson losing 47 seats. So Barack Obama would have to buck a historical trend to gain seats, let alone recapture the majority.

Nor has it been considered that the Republicans might pick up some vulnerable Democrat seats as well. Certainly the opponents of Sixth District Congressman John Delaney aren’t taking this lying down. They’re either playing up the trustworthiness angle, like Dan Bongino does in this video:

(By the way, if you look closely you’ll see my cohort Jackie Wellfonder in the video in a couple spots.)

Or they’re hammering the incumbent for turning his back on veterans, like Marine David Vogt:

A conversation about the Affordable Care Act and the harmful effects it is having on the American people is one we need to have. But we can’t have that conversation while our leaders are engaged in a partisan, political playground feud. Each side is guilty, and neither side is leading. Leadership means getting in the conference room and hammering out a solution, not holding a press conference just to call the opposition a new name and to repeat the same talking points that have obviously gotten us nowhere.

Our leaders have forgotten who they are in Washington to represent. Last week, I watched in amazement and disgust as my opponent voted to block funding for veterans’ benefits because he decided politics and standing by his party’s leadership came before service to his constituents and the American people. This is inexcusable.

Washington is supposed to work for us, not against us. These days it often seems that our elected officials do more to work against the American people than they do to help us. We don’t have time for political bickering. We have more pressing issues than each side’s attempt to save face. We need leadership, but it doesn’t appear we are going to get it anytime soon.

Obviously we won’t get new leadership until after the 2014 elections. And while I wouldn’t mind replacing John Boehner as Speaker, I’m hoping we do so with a much more conservative bulldog with TEA Party roots, not the shrill uber-liberal shill Nancy Pelosi. She had her time and set the stage for Barack Obama ruining the country, so let’s send a message to the Democrats and seize the narrative.

54-40 – so fight!

Those who favor the redefinition of marriage to include those nuptials involving same-sex couples are crowing once again about a poll showing their side in the lead. (h/t: Old Line Elephant.) The poll, done by Hart Associates, shows that the 504 likely voters split 54-40 in favor of keeping the new law, while 515 likely black voters are almost evenly divided on the issue, falling 45-44 against the bill. Moreover, Hart claims their numbers are improved from a previous March poll, where the measure would pass by a 51-43 margin with black voters opposed 49-40.

But if you read further into the Hart polling and compare it to another poll done recently by a pro-gay marriage group, Public Policy Polling, it can be argued that support for the measure is receding. The PPP figures went from 52-44 in favor in March to 57-37 in May – and 55-36 support in the black community.

Perhaps the Obama flip-flop on gay marriage moved the needle in the black community for a time, but that wave may have crested. If you look at the Hart and PPP results on a timeline, gay marriage has lost 19 points in two months among blacks and 6 points among all voters. And remember, it was just a year ago – before the well-funded propaganda blitz by those who believe same-sex marriage is a measure of “equality” rather than an attempt to legitimize what some consider a deviant lifestyle came to pass – that the issue trailed by two points among Maryland voters. A similar margin was found as recently as this past January in the Gonzales Research Maryland Poll.

And lost among these numbers as well is that both PPP and Hart are reliably Democratic pollsters, so since Democrats favor gay marriage enough to make it part of their 2012 platform these pollsters would naturally favor a position to make that side look good and discourage the opposition. The game is revealed in the Hart summary, where they write:

The bottom line is that a November win for marriage equality at the ballot box in Maryland is well within our grasp.

On the other hand, other pollsters which are more open about who they sample can be a little more trustworthy.

Also worthy of mention was that the Hart polling occurred before we saw the reaction on “Chick-fil-A” day – presumably the huge crowd we had in the local stores would be strongly against adopting gay marriage in Maryland, and they turned out to show that support for traditional values. Certainly a few who may have been neutral on the subject could have changed their minds upon seeing the tactics used against Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy for his pro-family stance.

Now as far as I’m concerned a “win for marriage equality” is a loss for the values which made this country great. I’ve said before that I have no problem with civil unions, but gay marriage to me is just another step toward rendering the term meaningless through eventually allowing polyamory and perhaps even adult-child partnerships. Give it a couple decades.

But the timing of conducting and releasing what amounts to a “push poll” (since we don’t have any indication about the sample composition, meaning it was probably weighted to areas and groups more likely to favor gay marriage) is interesting given the vast hordes who joined me in descending upon Chick-fil-A Wednesday. Since the so-called “equality” side certainly knew this outpouring of support for traditional values was coming – although perhaps they underestimated the amount – this poll release had to be designed to deflate whatever good news came out of the Chick-fil-A protests. I’m not buying it as a legitimate expression of support.

As Matt Newman points out at Old Line Elephant, support for same-sex marriage has generally been overstated at pre-election polls. A similar flaw in this instance puts the ballot within the margin of error, so it will be up to both sides to turn out their voters – historically this has been an advantage for conservatives despite their inferior numbers to date in Maryland. And with the plethora of issues on the ballot so far (six statewide issues, plus dozens of local initiatives) there will be a lot to attract conservatives in 2012.