2010 elections – Page 10

Slinging at the front runner

Now that the Maryland General Assembly session has come to a merciful halt, the eyes of the Maryland political world turn to campaigning rather than lawmaking.

One interesting turn in the race for U.S. Senator comes from looking at the campaign donation records of Dr. Eric Wargotz. When pressed, Wargotz does admit he was a Democrat for a time but there’s a difference between being a rank-and-file party member and financial contributor to the scale of Wargotz.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Toppling an incumbent

A few weeks back I spoke about District 37A, positing that Rudy Cane can be beaten. This stemmed from a Wicomico County Republican Club meeting where we were introduced to GOP hopeful Bob McCarroll.

While this district is a crazy-quilt district (check out this example of gerrymandering) set up originally to protect the most liberal Eastern Shore Democrat as a majority-minority district, recent development has changed the demographics and made this a prime chance for pickup. So if you live in the area between Cambridge and Salisbury (also encompassing Hurlock, East New Market, Vienna, Sharptown, and Hebron) you can help get your area better representation in Annapolis.

To that end, Bob McCarroll, who is running for Delegate in 37a, would like to hold an organization meeting for his campaign either this week or next. If any one would like to help get this campaign off the ground please e-mail him at b_a_mccarroll@yahoo.com. He is shooting for Saturday, April 17, but is flexible if other dates work for those interested.

While it’s not a “perfect” conservative to liberal spectrum, just knowing that Rudy Cane ranks just outside the bottom 10 in the monoblogue Accountability Project shows he votes far to the left of what an Eastern Shore legislator should. Too often he votes in lockstep with delegates from Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties – and we see how well those areas are run.

So the question for District 37A voters: have you had enough yet? If so, help yourself get some real representation in Annapolis!

The TEA Party test

It was at this time last year that the TEA Party movement was still in its infancy and doubters were rampant. The conventional wisdom predicted little chance of success for the rash of TEA Parties slated around the April 15th tax filing deadline – perhaps a few dozen cranks would show up, they argued, but real Americans truly didn’t mind the policies put forth by the fledgling Obama administration.

We all know what really happened, though – thousands of angry Americans of all races, religions, and political stripes showed up during that April week. Some came despite weather conditions which could be best described as raw, while others basked in sunshine. To a person, they were sickened by the direction our government had taken over the previous few months as they saw Wall Street banks and auto companies bailed out yet also saw jobs being lost and economic conditions slow to improve despite billions of stimulus dollars spent.

One year later, the job market is somewhat better but nowhere near the halcyon days of sub-5 percent unemployment just a few short years ago. And despite the best efforts of many TEA Party supporters to fight it, Obamacare became the law of the land last month. In the final days of debate, arrogant Democratic leaders baited the protesting crowd hoping to catch an embarrassing incident on video but TEA Partiers refused to swallow the bait. They weren’t exactly civil but no proof of any of the claimed racial slurs or spitting on members of Congress has come to light despite the media’s best efforts.

In fact, recently it was leftist protesters who were caught literally egging on the TEA Partiers – a bus for the “TEA Party Express 3” was pelted with eggs on its way to their initial tour stop in Harry Reid’s hometown of Searchlight, Nevada. So far that bus tour, which will conclude at an April 15th TEA Party in Washington, has drawn significant crowds at most stops.

However, the TEA Party Express tour does have the advantage of national press coverage and an all-star speaking lineup which at various points has included major media personalities and its most famous backer, Sarah Palin. A truer test of the staying power of this movement will come when hundreds of communities around the country host their own local events. Most of these won’t have the star power of the TEA Party Express to boost their numbers.

It’s these local events which have served as the backbone of the movement, and although many have been adopted by larger organizations like the TEA Party Patriots, the bulk of the leadership remains local. Their focus, though, is shifting from fighting the Democrats’ socialist agenda with phone calls, e-mails, and marches on the Capitol to one of cultivating conservative political candidates and getting them elected to office come November.

Certainly a huge turnout for the events next week will bode well for their November hopes, then again, a day is an eternity in the political world and 6½ months could see any number of developments. Still, there are a number of issues for TEA Partiers to fight (cap and trade and amnesty for illegal immigrants being the two chief ones) and it’s doubtful the socialist agenda is going to grind to a halt just because a majority of Americans aren’t behind it. For the most part, these protesters have keep their noses clean and to the grindstone thus far but there’s still a vast amount of work to do before they achieve their goals.

Michael Swartz, an architect and writer who lives in rural Maryland, is a Liberty Features Syndicated writer. This cleared the LFS wire just last Tuesday, making this release timely!

The Potemkin candidate

At first glance, Murray Hill wouldn’t be a name to jump out at a political observer. In an era of political newcomers thanks to the effect of TEA Party activism, Murray Hill would seem to be just another Republican entering Maryland’s Eighth Congressional District fray, seeking the GOP nomination to face entrenched Congressman Chris Van Hollen. Beating Van Hollen, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, would seem like a tall order and an incredible accomplishment in a district which arguably may be the most liberal-leaning in America.

The campaign has drawn a significant amount of attention, though, something that first-time political candidates would drool over – Murray Hill’s campaign Facebook page has over 10,000 fans and the bid’s YouTube advertisement has drawn over 200,000 views. Obviously their local Congressional campaign has taken on a national scope.

But Murray Hill isn’t just one who would be derided as a RINO (Republican In Name Only.) In fact, Murray Hill isn’t a person at all.

Call it the intersection of a fortunate choice of names and slick packaging, but the nascent Murray Hill campaign was a brainchild of the marketing and public relations firm which bears the name. Its Congressional bid was their logical extension of the recent Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission Supreme Court ruling which threw out several campaign finance prohibitions on corporate campaign expenditures. In their view, to give corporations free speech rights also gives their company the right to run for Congress. Murray Hill chose to run as a Republican “because we feel the Republican Party is more receptive to our basic message that corporations are people, too.”

Yet the creative minds backing Murray Hill’s bid think in a manner quite differently than the GOP mantra of lower taxes, less government, and increased freedom – in fact, they have seen the Republicans as their opposition. William Klein, Murray Hill’s campaign manager, has worked on numerous Democratic campaigns and firm founders and partners Eric Hensal and Patrick Mancino cut their political teeth by promoting the interests of organized labor groups, particularly in the construction industry. Their client base has primarily come from labor and environmental groups wishing to promote a softer image.

So far Maryland’s state board of elections has taken a dim view of Murray Hill’s ballot bid, denying them in part because the five-year old company technically doesn’t meet the age requirement for running for Congress. But that hasn’t stopped the company from pressing on with its ersatz campaign, even asking RNC Chairman Michael Steele to intercede on their behalf in the effort to convince the elections board to allow them registration and candidacy.

Of course, their campaign isn’t so much about running for Congress as it is being upset that the Supreme Court leveled the political playing field between corporations and unions – in fact, the changes made by the Supreme Court also helped labor interests by overturning precedent disallowing their participation, too. But the previous rules did give Big Labor an advantage, and the Citizens United ruling eroded that edge. Murray Hill would have never considered a political run had it not been for this particular Supreme Court decision.

But over twenty states – including Maryland – already allow corporate funding of elections, and one need only look at the Democratic dominance of the Free State to see that corporate funding alone hasn’t helped the GOP there. In that respect, Murray Hill is acting like the five-year-old it is by putting up this petulant bid for a Congressional seat.

Michael Swartz, an architect and writer who lives in rural Maryland, is a Liberty Features Syndicated writer. This article cleared back on March 29th.

Parsonsburg welcomes Bob Ehrlich

It’s not the biggest of places, but if you want to have a farm as a backdrop former Secretary of Agriculture Lewis Riley’s Parsonsburg farm is the place to be. Governor Ehrlich’s campaign kickoff stopped there this morning and I have pictures, text, plus a special surprise at the end.

Most of this will be in pictorial form. To begin, let me point out it was a little muddy on the farm this morning.

The ominous-looking clouds indeed produced rain as those present awaited the Governor's arrival.

The signs were already made up, though. Think this is a winning campaign issue?

This refers to Bob Ehrlich's promise to rescind the 1 percent sales tax increase which became effective in 2008.

People were in good spirits despite the weather. Luckily there was a place to get out of the rain.

It's a barnload of people who anxiously awaited Bob Ehrlich's arrival.

Needless to say, a host of local GOP candidates and officeholders were about. Here’s District 38 Senate candidate Michael James.

District 38 Senate candidate Michael James was going to be master of ceremonies for the Ocean City stop on the Ehrlich tour.

They also flanked Wicomico County Councilman Joe Holloway, who served as master of ceremonies for the event.

Joe Holloway was a good master of ceremonies because he's a man of few words.

District 38B candidate Mike McDermott also graced the podium with brief remarks.

Pocomoke City Mayor and Delegate candidate Mike McDermott called Bob Ehrlich a 'governor who understands surpluses.'

McDermott also played on the fiscal theme, calling Ehrlich one who “believes in actually lowering taxes.” The important number to him was 71, as in 71 of 141 seats in the General Assembly. Ending a century and a half of Democratic control could be a tall order, though.

Former Secretary of Agriculture under Ehrlich, Lewis Riley (left) hosted this event at his farm.

In introducing the once and perhaps future governor, Lewis Riley recalled how he was 'more impressed' with Ehrlich as a delegate.

In his introduction, Lewis Riley described Bob Ehrlich as one who’s knowledgeable on Maryland’s needs and wants. While that was being said, Ehrlich struck a thoughtful pose.

I think this may be my favorite picture from the event. Very statesmanlike.

I’m going to come back to what Bob Ehrlich said shortly, but afterward many of those there wanted a piece of him (figuratively, of course.)

Joe Holloway (right) wanted to have a shot with the Governor and I obliged too.

I’m not sure why both local television stations weren’t there (perhaps the other one was awaiting the Ocean City or Easton stop) but Channel 47 covered the Parsonsburg event.

Bob Ehrlich being interviewed by the local media, in this case Channel 47.

I liked this shot too, and throw it in just because.

I call this shot 'The Camera Eye'. It's a Rush song too.

Now, as to what Governor Ehrlich said – you can hear for yourself. I took video of his remarks.

In case you’re wondering, there’s probably about 50 to 75 people in the background behind me. The Channel 47 camera was to my right.

Afterward, I asked him about the effect lowering sales tax would have. Since the sales tax annually brings in about $3.7 billion according to the Comptroller’s office, taking 1/6 of it would be about $600 million. How would the gap be filled?

Bob explained to me that mine was a static analysis (true) and that the increased economic activity lowering the tax would create would fill in part of the gap (also a good presumption.) In addition, with slots coming online that revenue will enable the state to lower our tax burden in that manner. (Bob also brought up the what-if scenario of had slots passed in 2003.) All in all, it was a good answer and about what I expected.

With that, Ehrlich continued on to stops in Ocean City and Easton as he continued his statewide announcement tour. This is probably the most we’ll see of him because the battle is likely going to be for the suburban voters across the bay and let’s face it – Ehrlich should carry the Eastern Shore handily. (If not, he’ll be lucky to come within 15 points of Martin O’Malley.)

So…is this a suitable temporary replacement for Friday Night Videos?

Maryland’s two ‘no’ votes

It wasn’t unexpected, but Maryland’s House delegation split 6-2 on the issue of health care reform legislation dubbed by some as “Obamacare.” Roscoe Bartlett of the Sixth District joined all of his GOP counterparts in voting against the bill, and Frank Kratovil voted with 33 other Democrats in his opposition. In neither case was this a complete surprise.

But in looking ahead to the November election we find an interesting variation of reaction on the issue from the respective districts. In Bartlett’s case, only one of the two leading Democrats vying for the Sixth District nomination even mentions health care as an issue on his site. Andrew Duck favors “universal access to healthcare” but Casey Clark doesn’t even bring health care up as an issue. Perhaps that’s a nod to the unpopularity of the reform package in Bartlett’s district.

The more intriguing case is Kratovil’s. In 2008 Frank ran for office on a platform which noted, “Universal health care…means universal.” His statement said in part, “Universal coverage cannot be achieved until we accept the premise that every adult and child must be insured. If elected to Congress, I will support and advocate for true universal coverage and will provide leadership in forging consensus on a policy that provides such coverage without harming employers.”

(More on my Examiner.com page…)

Wargotz wins beauty contest

Much as a straw poll is somewhat helpful in determining grassroots support – but isn’t necessarily an indication of how an election will turn out – U.S. Senate Dr. Eric Wargotz may have proven he has the best supporters for stacking a straw poll.

My U.S. Senate poll came to a close early this morning (by prearrangement) and the final results out of over 5,000 votes are as follows:

Eric Wargotz 2,864 (56%)
Corrogan Vaughn 1,436 (28%)
Jim Rutledge 519 (10%)
John Kimble 144 (3%)
Carmen Amedori 138 (3%)
John Curran 5 (<1%)
Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)

Conclusions:

Eric’s campaign never stopped responding to the poll once it got underway. He led pretty much the entire way and kept increasing his percentage as other candidates and their supporters lost interest. The last time I did this (with just four candidates – Amedori hadn’t entered the race yet and I didn’t know Curran and Kimble had entered) Jim Rutledge picked up support toward the end but not this time.
I think Corrogan Vaughn’s camp exhibited the same phenomenon, as he and his supporters were probably the best at plugging the poll. But I’m hesitant to consider him as a real force in the race yet based on prior results. Even if you forget that the 2006 campaign had an all-but-annointed candidate in Michael Steele, Vaughn only drew 3.7% of the vote in 2004. Why is the support coming out now when the message didn’t sell before? Something doesn’t add up here.
Jim Rutledge has good supporters based on comments, but they didn’t stay for the whole poll. It makes me wonder if his backing is all that strong as I’ve found his campaign stays on message well but has spotty execution at times. Hopefully those videos are helping Jim with campaign financing too.
As for John Kimble, see Corrogan Vaughn. Most of his support came in the last day or two because prior to that he was a cypher. So my guess is that he or one of his backers caught wind of the poll and tried to make it sound like he had a little bit of backing. On the bright side, he did beat Vaughn in 2006 with 2.9% of the vote, finishing a very distant second in the primary.
I see Carmen Amedori as the “establishment” candidate based on her prior service in state government, and it sounds to me like she ignored the poll. I got a note from her that she was doing door-to-door instead, which makes sense. She’ll get far more than 3% in September, I’m certain of that.
On the other hand, McAndrew and Curran performed as expected.

At some point I’m going to do this again, perhaps later on this spring. But the next time I’m going to shorten the poll’s duration and see if I can dampen the repeat voting aspect to some extent. I had it set to one hour on my site but then again I don’t know if Polldaddy works that restriction through its site-based voting. (Now I know why I had 5,111 votes but not 5,111 readers! But readership did have a nice increase, thank you!)

I promised to put up some of the best comments for each candidate. There is no doubt that this poll was by far my best as participation goes, and I think I finally harnessed the power I envisioned when I started doing polling a few months back. These will be in order of finish, but most of the comments spoke about my top finishers and were cleaned up as needed for spelling errors and such.

“Sam” said about Dr. Eric Wargotz:

I don’t know. All are good people but very few really qualified to take a 6 year legislative hitch IMHO. I was quite taken with Dr. Eric Wargotz at the debate. Warm, comfortable, approachable style. Not stuffy and boring. Seemed to be right on with his responses. Came across very sincere and caring along with very knowledgeable. I have trouble supporting candidates for a 6 year legislative hitch if they have no elected legislative or constituent experience. I am also not a fan of politicians who are elected and then quit to take an appointed position. I feel that is a derilection of duty to the constituents who elected them. Just my view.

Jim Duncan pointed out the Facebook aspect – analytical like me:

Before you go too far in questioning the fairness of this poll, as the creator (of the poll) points out, it does appear to be consistent with each candidate’s level of support. At least with respect to the current order of finish, when you look at each campaign’s number of fans/friends on Facebook, where the candidates have pushed this poll. As best as I could tell, Eric Wargotz has by far the most support on Facebook with exactly 5000 friends. He has additional sites ranging from 126 to 1853 friends, but I will assume that most are duplicates. A distant second appears to be Corrogan Vaughn with 562, Vaughn has two other sites with 197 and 373 friends, Jim Rutledge with 514 and Carmen Amedori with 292, neither appeared to have other sites. I’ll bet there are some cross overs here as well…

Corrogan Vaughn had a number of passionate defenders for his cause. “JPS” liked his stand on the issues:

I agree with some of the above posters that we need someone who can take Baltimore city, and to add to that Vaughn can not only win Baltimore city, but he can win on solid principles. He has called for (abolishing) the IRS in place of sensible fair and simple taxation, abolishing the Department of Education because the education of our children comes from the states, and he’s serious about reining in spending. I know many have called Corrogan Vaughn the most Conservative candidate because he is deeply committed first and foremost to fiscal responsibility while maintaining social conservative values that will win over black conservative Democrats, a large voting bloc in Maryland fyi.

“Maryland Patriot” also chimed in for Vaughn:

I have worked in Maryland politics for several years on both sides of the aisle and have yet to meet an individual more honest and sincere than Corrogan Vaughn. The others are nice people, but seem to share the same disregard for the needs of everyday Marylanders as our present senator. Mr. Vaughn offers genuine solutions and ideas to the problems faced by our state and nation. He seems to be in this race out of sincere concern for Marylanders and Americans. Go Vaughn!

“Jasmine” was quite succinct:

I’m not familiar with politics here in Maryland but I will say that as a lifelong Democrat I’m switching to Republican this election to vote for Vaughn!!! Go Corrogan!

As Rush Limbaugh would say, “welcome home.” Meanwhile, Jim Rutledge supporters were in force early on. Here’s some of what they had to say, beginning with “libertypatriot”:

If you want a conservative candidate then the best candidate is Jim Rutledge. The other candidates do not possess the Constitutional knowledge and understanding that Jim possesses. While I don’t have anything personal against anyone in the race, conservatives know that Ehrlich is considered a moderate and what I’m hearing from people is Carmen is a reflection of that. Again, not making any judgment, just passing that on. Lastly, Tea Party people are tired of people already in government. We want an outsider, not an insider.

I think we all agree though… whomever ends up winning the Republican primary… needs to take down Mikulski. That’s the real end game.

In looking at her record, Amedori isn’t particularly moderate compared to some of her peers, regardless Wayne Ehrensberger said:

I have talked with Jim Rutledge at length on a wide range of topics. I can assure everyone that he is a staunch constitutional conservative, of solid moral character, knows the issues and fully articulates well thought out responsive plans and ideas. These same traits cannot be applied to Dr. Wargotz. Jim is a successful, experienced businessman. He is well versed in the politics although admittedly not a “veteran” politician. And that is certainly a good thing. What we obviously don’t need are more long term politicians. We need to put in place those that are in tune with the private sector that most of us work in and who understand, appreciate and will honestly adhere to the Constitution.

I am closely associated with several of Jim’s support staff. We knew each other before any of us were even aware of Jim Rutledge. These individuals would never align themselves with someone who isn’t a pure Constitutionalist. That of course also goes for me. I don’t possess any great incite into the remaining candidates, but I don’t really need to. The simple fact is that they are not Jim Rutledge. He is the individual that must win the seat currently held by Mikulski. Then we will finally have someone that truly represents We the People.

If anyone is interested in learning more about the Constitutional Conservative/Tea Party movement, I offer you two “Groups” based here in Maryland that you should check out and consider joining – allianceofamericanpatriots.org and restoreamericasmission.org. You will find yourself in company with many Maryland Patriots as well as the same from across the Nation.

Even the few Amedori supporters got their points across, with the best being “NRAD”:

I was at the debate in MoCo and by no fault of the YR’s the venue was pretty lousy for all the candidates. There was no PA system and there were barriers in the middle of the room. So by all standards ALL the candidates did a pretty decent job considering they had to shout at the top of thier voices so the people in the back and behind the walls could hear. By no means, should that be a gauge of anything. I will note that in all my days in politics it is always the front runner who takes the worst beating. May I suggest, however, that we not beat up on the GOP candidates. I bet Ronald Reagan would be turning in his grave by such antics.

Now, my candidate is Amedori for many reasons. And her experience is in the private and public sector – such a fabric upon which sound and wise decisions can be made. It is going to take that fortitude to take on the corruption in D.C. She has never shied away from a good fight. I remember her when she confronted then Lt. Gov Townsend and the way she always took on Joe Curran in Judiciary Committee. This woman is relentless. And, in my opinion, it is going to take a strong woman to take the fight to Babs. Amedori will surely do that. She has a conservative voting record to reflect her positions. Seems to me that anyone can say what they will do but we really need to look at what has been done. She is 100% pro life, 100% small business having been a recipient of The Shaw Award with MD Business for Responsive Government. And she is a fiscal conservative. All of that is reflected in her voting record. That is why Amedori has my vote.

The poll and comments are available here. While I’m changing my poll today, I must say this version was a memorable one!

Amedori launches online petition, calls on Mikulski to oppose reconciliation

Breaking news comes to me this morning from U.S. Senate candidate Carmen Amedori’s camp.

In an effort to contrast herself with longtime incumbent Barbara Mikulski and create pressure on the Democrat to forgo a vote for reconciliation (should it become necessary), Amedori has set up an online petition:

Today, Carmen Amedori, Republican candidate for United States Senate in Maryland, launched an online petition calling on United States Senator Barbara Mikulski to vote no on reconciliation for Obamacare.

“Reconciliation is not the method to pass health care reform. This parliamentary maneuver has never been used for such a sweeping piece of legislation,” said Amedori. “The President’s plan for health care reform is seriously flawed. That’s why no one elected Republican Senator will support the legislation.”

Reconciliation has been used 19 times since 1980. 12 of those times the procedure was used to pass omnibus budget bills that had an overwhelming support in the Senate. Only on 2 occasions were the budget bills controversial enough to lack bipartisan support.

“I am launching this online effort to send a message to our Senator that Marylanders don’t want Obamacare forced down our throats and that she should vote against reconciliation,” stated Amedori. “A national mandate is not a way to make health care more affordable.”

People can join Carmen’s effort by visiting her campaign website or by friending Amedori For U.S. Senate on Facebook.

Amedori believes that a health care reform package must include tort reform, associated health plans, rules that allow people to purchase health insurance across state lines, more emphasis on health savings accounts and a method for allowing people with pre-existing conditions to purchase insurance coverage.

Amedori is a former Maryland House Delegate where she served on the Judiciary Committee and quickly rose to the position of Assistant Minority Leader. She earned a distinguished reputation for being tough on crime, a strong advocate for property rights, and a champion for small business. In 2004, Governor Robert Ehrlich honored Amedori by appointing her to the Maryland Parole Commission where she served until last year.

(snip)

Amedori believes that as the next United States Senator she can do a better job for the people of Maryland. “It is time we had a Senator focused on results rather than political gamesmanship. As a former member of the House of Delegates, I know how to make a difference. Barbara has had 24 years and now is the time for new leadership,” added Amedori.

It should be noted I edited the original release slightly, but the point remains that if the Obamacare supporters choose the reconciliation route (which I doubt, since the House passage of the Senate bill gives us legislation which wouldn’t necessarily need to be reconciled anyway) Barbara would almost surely align with her fellow Democrats as being one of the 51 votes. Certainly Mikulski would feel safe enough in her seat to do so.

The other obvious reason for having the petition is gathering contacts for other communications from her campaign, which is fine – after all, I think voters should be well-informed about all of the candidates running. Carmen is unlike the others running in that she has a legislative record, and it’s one that’s been judged to be fairly conservative by the former Maryland Accountability Project (Amedori served in the House of Delegates 1999-2004.) But each voter should study all the candidates, judging their stated principles, goals, and experience inside and out of the political realm.

Since I got the release a little bit ahead of time, I can vouch the petition is up and running and I already signed it. You should too, even if you support one of the other six candidates currently in the race.

Poll update – day 3

It looks like two candidates’ supporters are taking this seriously.

As of about 3:00 this afternoon, it’s become a two-way race:

Eric Wargotz 1,785 (49%)
Corrogan Vaughn 1,156 (32%)
Jim Rutledge 499 (14%)
Carmen Amedori 128 (4%)
John Kimble 43 (1%)
Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)
John Curran 4 (<1%)

Let’s look at what happened in the last 24 hours or so:

Eric Wargotz 948 (54%)
Corrogan Vaughn 783 (46%)
Jim Rutledge 23 (1%)
Carmen Amedori 2 (<1%)

No one else got a vote, so it’s obvious that this poll may have run its course as a useful exercise.

The percentage changes are as follows:

Corrogan Vaughn +12 (20 to 32)
Eric Wargotz +4 (45 to 49)
Daniel McAndrew 0 (stays at <1)
John Curran 0 (stays at <1)
John Kimble -1 (2 to 1)
Carmen Amedori -3 (7 to 4)
Jim Rutledge -12 (26 to 14)

The poll will end on Tuesday, and I’ll have the final totals and the conclusions I draw from them that night.

By the way, the “Eric” you see on the Polldaddy.com comments is not the candidate Eric Wargotz. I figured you’d know that but he took the time today to point out it wasn’t the case. I can moderate these comments to some extent, but only after the fact.

I think when I wrap this exercise up I may post some of the better comments and cases for some of the candidates.

Poll tracking – day 2

Well, things haven’t slowed down with my U.S. Senate poll, as the total response closes in on the 2,000 mark.

Again, I stress this isn’t a strictly scientific poll as there is the opportunity for multiple responses from the same person – but there is a time-out period built in. Yes, the system can be gamed but my theory is that the gamesmanship will occur roughly in proportion with actual support.

Here are the results I had shortly before 4:00 this afternoon:

Eric Wargotz 837 (45%)
Jim Rutledge 476 (26%)
Corrogan Vaughn 373 (20%)
Carmen Amedori 126 (7%)
John Kimble 43 (2%)
Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)
John Curran 4 (<1%)

The other key number is tracking the daily totals as opposed to the overall totals. It was just about 24 hours since my first update, and the change since then has been most meaningful for Wargotz and Amedori. The percentage is the share of the votes cast in the last day or so.

Eric Wargotz 582 (54%)
Jim Rutledge 247 (23%)
Corrogan Vaughn 220 (20%)
Carmen Amedori 31 (3%)
John Kimble 3 (<1%)
Daniel McAndrew 2 (<1%)
John Curran 0 (0%)

I did some checking on my Facebook page among the universe of friends I have and those associated with the Corrogan Vaughn campaign (including the candidate) plugged the poll twice, while a Wargotz ally did it once. Now here is the precentage difference from yesterday to today – you can see who benefitted at whose expense.

Eric Wargotz +12 (33 to 45)
Corrogan Vaughn 0 (still at 20)
Daniel McAndrew 0 (still at <1)
John Curran -1 (1 to <1)
Jim Rutledge -3 (29 to 26)
John Kimble -3 (5 to 2)
Carmen Amedori -5 (12 to 7)

This is what I mean by depth of support – Wargotz’s supporters continue to flood the poll and perhaps distort it somewhat. But the last time I did this Wargotz held a large early lead only to see Jim Rutledge supporters close the gap at the end, so perhaps this may play out again.

Tomorrow I’ll do another update – I expect the pace to slow down some during the weekend but a big share from someone could have a significant impact on the results. The poll continues for a few more days (I have an end date set for it but I won’t say when it is) so we’ll see whether the supporters can keep going – it determines depth of support and also helps me determine whether my theory is validated or not.

Poll tracking – day 1

With the huge interest in my poll regarding who should face Barbara Mikulski for the U.S. Senate seat she currently occupies, I thought it would be a good idea to keep a daily track of it for the duration.

Most of the major candidates have posted about it on their Facebook pages multiple times, so the sampling size is extraordinarily high. As of 3 p.m. this afternoon there were 779 total votes cast, and the interim results follow:

Eric Wargotz 255 (33%)
Jim Rutlegdge 229 (29%)
Corrogan Vaughn 153 (20%)
Carmen Amedori 95 (12%)
John Kimble 40 (5%)
John Curran 4 (1%)
Daniel McAndrew 3 (<1%)

Obviously this is a very tight race and I encourage people to stay involved! I’ll try to keep this tracking going for the duration of the poll, which will continue for the next few days.

The Spending Limit Amendment

Earlier this morning I participated in a conference call with Rep. Jeb Hansarling (R-TX) and Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN). They are two of the three initial sponsors of a possible Constitutional amendment called the Spending Limit Amendment (H.J. Res. 79), a proposal to limit federal spending to 20% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This number was arrived at because that’s a rough average of federal spending vs. GDP over an extended period.

Their argument falls in a number of categories ranging from dire economic straits to lost productivity to a national security threat. In the call, Hensarling noted “we believe we have to act now” and that he’s “not naive about the fact 5,000 amendments to the Constitution have been offered but only 27 ratified.” Instead, “what we hope to do is start a national debate on the size of government.”

Added Pence, “we have come to the conclusion that we need to introduce a new force,” that force being one of changing our “charter.” He also made the oft-noted point that “as government expands, freedom contracts.”

A number of different bloggers asked questions; I happened to be one of them. My question related to the fact that this seemed to me a weaker version of the balanced budget amendments proposed in the early 1990’s. Congressman Pence argued that this was “not a weaker version” but “a focused effort” on reining in the “runaway spending on steroids” going on today. In their estimate, running a small deficit but only spending 20% of GDP was preferable to having a balanced budget consuming 40% of GDP.

On an earlier question, the pair agreed that the BBA debate “had an impact” on spending immediately after it was considered.

There’s a lot more to the roughly 40-minute call, but since I’ve been promised the recording later today I can let you be the judge. Suffice to say that this should be a great issue to use in the 2010 campaign and they hope the TEA Party movement embraces the proposal, but they agreed this will be “a multiyear effort” and warned that, left unchecked, in 20 years our spending will place us in the similar position Greece faces now.

It reinforced my belief that Pence and Hensarling are “keepers” when it comes to a “throw the bums out” mentality. You’ll enjoy hearing what they have to say.