Poll tracking – day 2
Well, things haven’t slowed down with my U.S. Senate poll, as the total response closes in on the 2,000 mark.
Again, I stress this isn’t a strictly scientific poll as there is the opportunity for multiple responses from the same person – but there is a time-out period built in. Yes, the system can be gamed but my theory is that the gamesmanship will occur roughly in proportion with actual support.
Here are the results I had shortly before 4:00 this afternoon:
- Eric Wargotz 837 (45%)
- Jim Rutledge 476 (26%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 373 (20%)
- Carmen Amedori 126 (7%)
- John Kimble 43 (2%)
- Daniel McAndrew 5 (<1%)
- John Curran 4 (<1%)
The other key number is tracking the daily totals as opposed to the overall totals. It was just about 24 hours since my first update, and the change since then has been most meaningful for Wargotz and Amedori. The percentage is the share of the votes cast in the last day or so.
- Eric Wargotz 582 (54%)
- Jim Rutledge 247 (23%)
- Corrogan Vaughn 220 (20%)
- Carmen Amedori 31 (3%)
- John Kimble 3 (<1%)
- Daniel McAndrew 2 (<1%)
- John Curran 0 (0%)
I did some checking on my Facebook page among the universe of friends I have and those associated with the Corrogan Vaughn campaign (including the candidate) plugged the poll twice, while a Wargotz ally did it once. Now here is the precentage difference from yesterday to today – you can see who benefitted at whose expense.
- Eric Wargotz +12 (33 to 45)
- Corrogan Vaughn 0 (still at 20)
- Daniel McAndrew 0 (still at <1)
- John Curran -1 (1 to <1)
- Jim Rutledge -3 (29 to 26)
- John Kimble -3 (5 to 2)
- Carmen Amedori -5 (12 to 7)
This is what I mean by depth of support – Wargotz’s supporters continue to flood the poll and perhaps distort it somewhat. But the last time I did this Wargotz held a large early lead only to see Jim Rutledge supporters close the gap at the end, so perhaps this may play out again.
Tomorrow I’ll do another update – I expect the pace to slow down some during the weekend but a big share from someone could have a significant impact on the results. The poll continues for a few more days (I have an end date set for it but I won’t say when it is) so we’ll see whether the supporters can keep going – it determines depth of support and also helps me determine whether my theory is validated or not.
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Please note that the opinions expressed on monoblogue are not necessarily those of the Wicomico County Republican Party Central Committee, of which I'm a member. (But they probably should be.)
