Mary Kane – Page 2

Wargotz: ‘I will forgo this unique opportunity’

Certainly, some movement conservatives and GOP purists will rejoice at this news but this also helps pave the way for the favorite in the MDGOP Chair race. Eric Wargotz had this to say yesterday:

“I am both humbled and honored to have many central committee members, and supporters rallying me to run for the Chairman position. The past couple of weeks have been spent carefully considering this opportunity to lead our State party.

The upcoming term presents much opportunity for the Maryland Republican Party to focus its message and thus make substantive gains. Hopefully, a sharpened one carefully crafted based on traditional Conservative values with a goal towards truly achieving a two-party system in our great State.

In conjunction with family, friends, supporters and trusted advisors I have reached the conclusion that although I am up for the challenge of leading this effort as Chairman, I will forgo this unique opportunity at this time as I continue to strongly consider a run for elected office in the near future.

Thus, I offer my sincere congratulations to all nominees for Chairman of the Maryland Republican Party. I pledge my support, time and energy in assisting the new Chairman and the incoming Officers and Executive Board. Furthermore, I will continue to work with the Republican Party and others to promote core Conservative values in Maryland and throughout the Nation.”

In the short term, this probably helps the chances of Mary Kane more than anyone since my suspicion is that much of Eric’s support will gravitate toward her. But I think this will also give Alex Mooney the excuse to make his final decision whether to go for Chair or 1st Vice Chair. I’ll certainly be reviewing the odds later today.

Yet there is a longer-term implication to this. The MDGOP bylaws clearly state “(n)o individual may either hold or seek elected public office while serving as an officer of the party.” While Eric has more statewide name recognition and theoretically wouldn’t need to spend time introducing himself to voters, the 2012 campaign beckons and again there’s an U.S. Senate seat up for election, held by Ben Cardin. (In theory, he could also run for Congress if he wants to take on a GOP incumbent, but I doubt he would do that.) With the primary held somewhere in February or March, Eric would probably only be Chair for a matter of months before resigning to seek office.

To me, it’s the clearest indication yet that he’s going to try again, and perhaps it’s a shot across the bow at competition – remember, members of the General Assembly can run ‘from cover’ in 2012, not risking their seats should they be unsuccessful.

In any event, I can scratch another name off the list.

In other news, I just got off the phone with Sam Hale and he told me I’ll have his answers to my questions for the new Chair later today. What sayeth the rest of you in the race – are you chicken? Afraid to answer queries from a voter?

Be aware I meet with a pretty significant voting bloc in the race tomorrow. I know one other contender will be at this meeting in person, so you might wish to take some time today to gather your thoughts. Just saying.

The MDGOP horserace

(This post has been entirely updated here.)

I’ve had enough people ask me who I think is going to be chair that I’ve decided to lay odds on what I think would happen. (Odds are for amusement only, no wagering please.)

Here is the race as I see it and why. I’ll update this in a week or so before the race; by then we should have a pretty good idea of the field. (Now updated to reflect two withdrawals – Andrew Langer and Eric Wargotz.)

Mary Kane (4-1): The early favorite based on name recognition and the number of Ehrlich loyalists still in the state party. But this probably won’t be a two- or three-horse race in the beginning, and the question is just how much support she can muster beyond this core constituency. Will she have enough in the tank if the race turns out to be a marathon? And are party regulars ready to give the Republicans back to the Kane family? However, her odds improved once Eric Wargotz withdrew since they seemed to me to be drawing from the same voter bloc.
Alex Mooney (10-1): The longer he waits to decide whether to get into the race (as of 12-2 he’s still oscillating between Chair and 1st Vice-Chair), the less chance he has of winning it. He has two strikes against him: a perception that he’s simply doing this to keep his 2012-2014 options open and the similar geographical disparity which also would have hurt Eric Wargotz. However, his odds can vastly improve if he decides to get in and pledges to use the position as a conservative bully pulpit – I think the withdrawal of Wargotz will push him into the Chair race, thus his odds got much better. And with the withdrawals of the other ‘outstate’ candidates he can now play the ‘us vs. them’ angle.
William Campbell (12-1): Probably the most low-key among those in the field, Campbell could be the compromise candidate the party turns to in an otherwise deadlocked race. While he has run for statewide office, he’s a political outsider who may get the nod based on the perception he’s not taking the position to climb a career political ladder. In terms of fiscal expertise, though, Campbell is hard to top.
Sam Hale (12-1): Hale represents the Brian Murphy wing of the party, and will likely have a lot of support among the most conservative in the party. Yet the questions which will nag him will be those of his young age and his fundraising ability, particularly since he’s likely the most unknown quantity among the contenders. They may not wish to take a flyer on this unproven rookie unless he can press the flesh and impress. He’s unafraid of questions, though, and that could help.
Carmen Amedori (15-1): Another candidate who wouldn’t win on the first ballot, but could emerge as a compromise choice. However, she has to overcome the perception of flakiness based on her behavior during the 2010 campaign – her explanation made sense to some but left other supporters of both Brian Murphy and Bob Ehrlich fuming. She will need to mend fences quickly to have a chance.
Mike Esteve (20-1): He’s already in charge of a state operation, but the Maryland College Republicans are a far cry from their parent organization. Like Sam Hale, there’s going to be the question of youth used against him, except that Mike is even younger. While the group as a whole needs to get younger, I can’t see how he succeeds – on the other hand, he only needs to convince about 150 people.
The field (75-1): Since nominations can be made from the floor (if a 2/3 majority chooses to do so) any number of names could surface at the convention, including past chairmen or other GOP luminaries. Highly unlikely but possible nonetheless.

On Sunday I submitted a list of questions to the contenders whom I know of; as of the time I wrote this last night no one had replied. (As of 12-3 Sam Hale is the lone reply.) Obviously I’m taking a dim view of those who won’t answer simple but direct questions about how they’ll change the party.

Original odds 11/30/10: Kane 5-1, Wargotz 8-1, Campbell 10-1, Andrew Langer 12-1 (withdrew), Hale 15-1, Amedori 18-1, Mooney 20-1, Esteve 25-1, field 50-1.

First revision 12/2/10: Kane 5-1, Eric Wargotz 7-1 (withdrew), Campbell 10-1, Hale 12-1, Amedori 15-1, Mooney 15-1, Esteve 20-1, field 75-1.

A key endorsement

One of the first big-name endorsements in the MDGOP Chair race came last night.

In a note to his supporters on his Facebook page, Jim Rutledge laid out some of the reasons he supports Maryland Society of Patriots head Sam Hale:

He “is a proven leader at the grassroots, people-to-people level of persuasion.” Jim recounts how Sam founded the Maryland Society of Patriots and that it became a favorite stop for conservative candidates courting votes.
He is “honest and transparent” and gives “straight talk from an intelligent mind.”
He “has a work ethic second to none…his energy is badly needed to move us forward in Maryland.”
He “is an optimist and visionary” who is “not daunted in his passion for turning the tide of freedom” despite living in the liberal enclave of Montgomery County.
He “is a Christian who understands the call to civic activism,” and who “puts his faith into action.”
He “is young and well-educated…youth and energy attract youth and energy.”
Finally, he “is independent from the influences of the Washington, D.C. establishment.”

Truthfully, it’s not surprising Rutledge would place his backing behind a party outsider, as Hale may be the only aspirant to not either have been a 2010 candidate (Amedori, Campbell, Kane, Mooney, Wargotz) or involved with the Maryland GOP in some other fashion (Esteve is head of the Maryland College Republicans and Langer is on the Queen Anne’s County Central Committee.)

I haven’t taken the opportunity to speak to Sam yet, but as I noted yesterday he did an interview for RedState with Matt Newman. Later this week I’m thinking about sending out my own set of questions to see who has the guts to reply – after all, I’m one of the few people who are discussing the issue publicly to actually have some say in the matter.

It’s important to me that I make the best-informed decision I can to advance the conservative principles I believe in. Unlike some party chairmen, I put principle over party as much as I can (granted, it can’t always work that way – I do have some pragmatism.) So, those of you I think are in the running should be on the lookout.

In print: Large field lining up for state GOP chair

I love it when they get the name AND the website right:

“For a party that everybody thought was kind of dead on Election Day, there’s a lot of people that sure want to lead it,” said Michael Swartz, a member of the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee who operates Monoblogue, a conservative political blog.

This is one of the lead paragraphs in a story by writer Alan Brody in the Gazette this morning. I spoke with Alan yesterday afternoon as he apparently was putting the piece to bed.

It is sort of amazing that, when you speak for almost 23 minutes (according to the timer on my cel phone), you only get a couple good quotes out of the deal. Having done a little bit of journalism myself, that aspect of the business still makes me shake my head. And certainly that’s no criticism of Alan, who I think did a nice job of selecting my money quotes; it’s just my observation on the process.

I was impressed with what young Sam Hale said on the subject of Mary Kane, which unknowingly served to bolster my point that Kane is the favorite – well, it’s hers to lose anyway.

But one point I made in my conversation with Alan is that each candidate will likely have a bloc of voters they believe they can count on – Kane is probably working from the base of Montgomery County and their 48 allotted votes, a number which dwarfs other county delegations but is just a fraction of the nearly 300 who will be voting on December 11.

This also allows me to work in a tidbit I learned from Audrey Scott’s “Message from the Chair” yesterday:

We have 131 new (county Central Committee) members and 139 returning members for a nice balance of old and new. This represents a 48% turnover, which is roughly half and an ideal situation for continuity and fresh ideas.

The number is only elected members; some counties have a few vacancies which still aren’t filled. At ‘full strength’ the number is about 290 members. Also unknown is how many ‘new’ members are returning after a hiatus; for example our Central Committee has a ‘new’ member who was previously in office during the 1990’s. My best guess is that around 100 of the newbies have those ‘fresh ideas’ Scott speaks of. Now THAT is a formidable voting bloc!

Personally, I think by the time all is said and done we will have between two and four candidates to choose from. Some of the nearly one dozen names we’re dropping right now won’t have the support they think they have once December arrives while others will say “thanks, but no thanks” in the next week or two as the Gazette story recounts Larry Hogan did. But it likely won’t be a walkover like we had with Audrey Scott being elected midstream a year ago; this one may be more like the RNC election of Michael Steele with multiple candidates and ballots.

All I know is that we’re going to have a spirited convention, which belies the perception of a party that was “kind of dead on Election Day.”

Amedori jumps into Chair race

Update 10 a.m.: Another entrant into the race is 2010 Comptroller candidate William Campbell.

Add a Lower Shore name to the Maryland GOP Chair mix, and Mary Kane won’t be the only woman seeking the post.

Carmen Amedori, who served in the House of Delegates from 1999-2004 representing Carroll County and had abortive runs for both U.S. Senator and lieutenant governor in the past year, is now setting her sights on the party’s top post. She joins a growing field of aspirants for the job, many of whom are campaign veterans themselves.

Carmen, who recently relocated to Ocean City, didn’t remain on a political hiatus too long after a whirlwind spring which saw her featured in two statewide races. She won a spot on the Worcester County Central Committee in September and lent her expertise to the campaign of House of Delegates candidate Marty Pusey. Pusey finished third but drew a respectable 25% of the vote in a four-person field.

Yet the former Ehrlich appointee drew fire for a withering criticism of her former boss upon joining the Murphy campaign, only to re-endorse him upon dropping out. In part, she claimed, it was to deflect blame from Brian should Ehrlich lose (as he eventually did) – “if there was going to be a loss to O’Malley, let it be Bob’s loss.” This probably won’t endear her to Bob’s strongest backers.

However, Carmen thinks she can overcome this:

We need to build this party. That means, someone like me who has African American conservative and soft Democrat friends who would go door to door to with me to help convert membership and also someone who will not be percieved by the press as someone who is so far right that we will never see light of day in Maryland. I am a strong conservative. But I do have friends on both sides and many who are attracted to my ability to communicate with everyone.

She joins a rapidly growing field that may include fellow U.S. Senate candidate Eric Wargotz along with Kane and two other less-known hopefuls who have already announced their candidacy, Mike Esteve and Sam Hale.

MDGOP: the intrigue continues

Well, well, well…yesterday was an interesting day. Pretty soon we won’t be able to tell the players without a scorecard.

With the interest in taking over what I thought was an irrelevant, moribund party who was shellacked in all four statewide races (oops, three since they didn’t even have a candidate for Attorney General) now beginning to peak, the rumor mill of who’s in and who’s out is beginning to grind out a few names we might recognize.

I don’t know for sure who will end up on the ballot come December 11 in Annapolis, but this is how I understood the process as it was when I went to bed last night:

Looks like they’re in:

Mike Esteve (Maryland College Republicans/Baltimore TEA Party Coalition)
Sam Hale (Maryland Society of Patriots)

Leaning that way:

Mary Kane (2010 LG candidate, former Secretary of State and onetime House of Delegates candidate)

Once in, then out, but maybe in again:

Andrew Langer (Institute for Liberty and frequent TEA Party speaker)

The good old ‘considering it’ group that’s testing the waters beneath the surface:

Alex Mooney (State Senator who was defeated in 2010)
Eric Wargotz (U.S. Senate candidate in 2010 and outgoing Queen Anne’s County Commission president)

Thanks, but no thanks:

Larry Hogan (former Congressional candidate who may be positioning himself for a 2014 run)

Feel free to add changes, new names, and dropouts to the comment section. I’ll stay on the rumor mill as I work today.

I thought I said NEW leadership!

Despite fighting fatigue, I can still smell a rat a mile away.

Slowly but surely, people are beginning to filter into the various races for Republican Party positions. Since I last wrote I received confirmation that Maryland Society of Patriots head Sam Hale is in the race, and Larry Hogan is out. From Hogan’s Facebook page:

Many people were pushing me to run for State Party Chairman, and are dissapointed (sic) that I declined the position. I believe in the party, I’m very excited about our potential in Maryland and I do plan to stay very involved. I appreciate all the support, however, as a potential candidate in 2014, I think that it’s better for someone else to focus their energies on the state party HQ.

Fair enough. At first glance, Hale is a guy who would match most of what I’d like in a state party Chairman – but I need to learn a lot more.

But there’s another candidate who’s considering a run, and her infamous words tell you most of what you need to know:

I don’t know if we are going to see another [Republican governor of Maryland] in the next 40 years. It is a shame.”

The woman who uttered these words: Mary Kane, Bob Ehrlich’s running mate and probable darling of the establishment set. According to the Washington Post, she’s “interested” in making a run. (A tip of the hat goes to Ann Corcoran for spotting this.) Does that quote above square with this tidbit from the Post piece?

“I believe in the Republican Party, and I don’t think we should give up on this.”

It doesn’t sound like you believe in the party too strongly if you dismiss our chances of electing a governor in the next four decades! Richard Cross over at Cross Purposes does a nice job of looking at what the party achieved on a local level (although he missed Wicomico County; I took care of his oversight.)

And, just like the Bushes kept the presidency in the family after the eight-year respite of Bill Clinton, the Kanes may regain control of the Maryland Republican Party after a four-year hiatus where both Jim Pelura and Audrey Scott served as chairs – Mary’s husband John was Bob Ehrlich’s hand-picked choice to run the MDGOP from 2002-2006. Mr. Kane’s legacy is one of defeat – Ehrlich didn’t win re-election and the party all but bankrupted itself in the effort to keep him in Government House. (His tenure is part of the reason why the Maryland Republican Party needed its line of credit. Much of the remaining financial problem stemmed from a disastrous year of fundraising in 2007, with the projections likely based on the 2006 budget prepared by John Kane.)

Having only met Mary Kane briefly – most recently at her early voting campaign swing through Wicomico County – I don’t have a personal problem with her, but I can’t see her prospective tenure as being productive.

As I’ve pointed out before, the definition of insanity is to do the same thing and expect different results. If the Maryland Republican Party believes it can continue with an “establishment” person at the helm, don’t be surprised if we reach heretofore unknown lows in the next election cycle. Such a move will alienate the people the party needs most in the grassroots, and as we saw this time around a lack of grassroots support doomed the Ehrlich/Kane ticket while conservatives like Andy Harris and a number of others at the local level won with strong backing from the heretofore politically inactive.

It’s a Pyrrhic victory for the self-appointed party elite to be in charge of a sinking ship, but if conservatives allow the wrong choice to be made December 11th they’ll be kicking themselves daily for the next four years.

LG hopeful Kane campaigns in Wicomico

If you drive by the Wicomico Youth and Civic Center, you might think there’s an election going on.

Since this is the case, we were graced by a visit from Mary Kane, who’s running on the ticket with Bob Ehrlich. Naturally she’s a popular lady.

The gentleman on the left with Mrs. Kane is Mark McIver, the campaign coordinator for Bob Ehrlich here in Wicomico County.

But Kane wasn’t the only Republican out looking for votes this afternoon. Here she stands amidst Bob Culver, who’s running for Wicomico County Council at-large and Matt Maciarello, the GOP choice for State’s Attorney.

Worth noting is that Democrat Peter Evans was out looking for votes as well. I just didn’t get a picture of him.

There’s also a number of volunteers, and to show the proper role of a GOP candidate who lost in the primary A. Kaye Kenney was working on the behalf of several candidates including Stevie Prettyman of Council District 2 and Charles Otto, running for Delegate in District 38A. Here she is with Matt Maciarello.

It’s probable that close to 4,000 Wicomico voters will take advantage of early voting based on the results of days 1-5 and what I project will happen today (I think this will be the biggest day from the numbers I heard when I was there.)While that seems like a lot, bear in mind this will only be about 7% of the total eligible voters…yet if the final results are a factor of 10 as they were in early voting for the primary, turnout might be heavy.

And while Democrats are slightly leading in turnout percentage statewide, on the Eastern Shore the GOP leads in all but Queen Anne’s County (where the two parties are in a virtual tie.) So we are indeed ready and raring to go.

By the way, the top of the GOP ticket will be here in Salisbury tomorrow morning at 9:30 for the “Fire Pelosi” tour. RSVP to Patrick Hefflinger [phefflinger (at) mdgop.org] or call (443) 736-8042. I plan on covering that event as well.