Category: Pajamas Media

Deficit Commission: tinkering around the edges

My latest for Pajamas Media…

Whether it was intentionally jumping the gun to give us a flavor of what we can expect or inadvertently leaked, a draft copy of the report from the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform found its way to the New York Times and other media outlets this week. This came as a bit of a surprise since the report itself isn’t due until December, and while the draft is marked “Do Not Quote, Cite, or Release,” it appears the pundits have already disregarded the advisory.

(continued on Pajamas Media…)

The Battle for America 2010: Democrats push Libertarian in MD-1 with phony mailings

Democrats and dirty tricks go hand in hand, even in deep blue Maryland.

Showing their desperation to pump up the flagging candidacy of freshman Democrat Frank Kratovil in an R + 13 district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has sent out a series of mailers over the last week to conservative members of the district asking if Libertarian candidate Dr. Richard Davis, a dentist from Hurlock, is “too conservative?”

It’s obvious that Beltway Democrats recall how the First District was only carried by Kratovil in 2008 by 2,852 votes over Republican Dr. Andy Harris, with Libertarian Davis picking up 8,873 votes – or 2.5% of the total. All three are on the ballot again so it’s obvious this effort is to use the Libertarian alternative to peel away conservative support for Harris and make Davis again become the spoiler in the race.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

It’s all about turnout!

Those of you who know me know I like to play with numbers. And in a day that’s all about numbers, it’s important to know that working the numbers up one side or down the other makes a big difference.

Let’s use this recent Maryland Poll and election data for an example. It’s the poll which had Bob Ehrlich down 5 points based on a particular turnout model. But what if turnout projections are way off?

Over the last two state elections (2002 and 2006), this was the actual turnout statewide.

2006: Republican 62.75%, Democrats 59.3%, Green 47.65%, Libertarian 46.69%, Constitution 47.61%, Populist 29.91%, unaffiliated 41.83%

2002: Republican 67.44%, Democrats 62.94%, Green 55.19%, Libertarian 46.08%, Constitution 45.82%, Reform 41.15%, unaffiliated 45.25%

For the sake of this argument, though, I’m just going to lump the minor parties with the unaffiliated as these polls do.

Finally, here are the latest monthly voter registration figures from the state Board of Elections.

  • Republicans – 920,181
  • Democrats – 1,948,008
  • Green – 8.349
  • Libertarian – 8,828
  • Constitution – 571
  • unaffiliated/other – 562,670

Taking these numbers and using the 2006 turnout model (poor for the GOP) this would be the voting universe.

  • Republicans – 577,414
  • Democrats – 1,155,169
  • unaffiliated/other – 242,789

With the 2002 turnout model (a little better for everyone) this would be the voting universe.

  • Republicans – 620,570
  • Democrats – 1,226,076
  • unaffiliated/other – 262,639

The next set of numbers is based on the Maryland Poll. Assume for every 100 voters that the following proportions vote for Ehrlich or O’Malley – it’s a number based on the percentages given plus proportionally dividing the undecided and refused among the groups:

  • Republicans – 90 Ehrlich, 10 O’Malley
  • Democrats – 19 Ehrlich, 81 O’Malley
  • unaffiliated/other – 54 Ehrlich, 46 O’Malley

So, based on the two above turnout models this is what the numbers would be:

A 2006 turnout gives Ehrlich 870,261 votes and O’Malley 1,105,111 votes.

A 2002 turnout gives Ehrlich 933,692 votes and O’Malley 1,175,993 votes.

Based on either of the last two turnout models Ehrlich is a loser and won’t have much in the way of coattails for other local canddiates.

But let’s make up another turnout example. How about a turnout (using the BoE numbers) of 80 percent GOP, 60 percent Democrat, and 50 percent unaffiliated/other? If the TEA Party is really out there this is easily doable.

Here, then, is the new voting universe:

  • Republicans – 736,145
  • Democrats – 1,168,805
  • unaffiliated/other – 281,335

Since the other parties all have a gubernatorial candidate we’ll assume they vote straight party line and not factor them into the count.

Using this voting total model and the Maryland Poll results we get a much closer result; Ehrlich gets 1,036,524 votes and O’Malley 1,149,761. It’s then up to the Ehrlich camp to get to a better result of 25% of Democrats and 60% of independents because with those proportions and 80% GOP turnout he wins – and probably picks up the General Assembly seats he needs to have a vetoproof minority. (Bob could win with near 100% GOP turnout as well if all other numbers stayed the same.)

Now let’s take this more local, looking at the four Lower Shore counties. All of these counties have Republicans at a numeric disadvantage as far as voter registration, so let’s say the Democrats turn out 60 percent of their voters. This would be the GOP turnout needed to negate the advantage (if voters voted straight party line, of course):

  • Dorchester: 89.44%
  • Somerset: 99.22%
  • Wicomico: 76.84%
  • Worcester: 68.08%

The only counties where it’s statistically impossible to overcome 60% Democratic turnout are Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Charles, Montgomery, and Prince George’s. (Needless to say, it’s likely O’Malley will carry those counties but as you can deduce that can be overcome statewide with disciplined and heavy GOP turnout.)

So it is important for Republicans to be just as excited to vote (or get their friends who are GOP, conservative independents, or thoughtful Democrats to vote if they’ve voted early) as they were when this campaign started. Don’t let the bastards in the press get you down because we can win.

On a different note, I’ll probably not post here tomorrow since I’ll be working a poll for a great candidate in Marty Pusey, then kicking off the next election cycle as part of the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee – we’ll be sworn in tomorrow night at the GOP Victory Center. Look instead to Pajamas Media, where I’ll be part of the national coverage team and deliver updates as needed.

Is the left emboldened or afraid?

My latest piece for Pajamas Media:

While those on the liberal side of the political equation had a difficult time last weekend drumming up support for their cause — even with the prospect of a free bus trip to Washington, D.C., and a box lunch courtesy of Big Labor — a small protest at a rural Maryland Americans for Prosperity rally could be a harbinger of things to come as the left gets more desperate.

Maryland’s Eastern Shore is best known as the home of Perdue chicken. But it’s also ground zero in a rematch between freshman Democratic Congressman Frank Kratovil and his Republican opponent, state Senator Andy Harris. In 2008, Kratovil won by a plurality of less than 3,000 votes out of 360,000 cast (a Libertarian candidate took just over 2 percent), and chances are the second battle could be as close as the first. While the district was one of the areas in Maryland carried by John McCain, Kratovil prevailed by stressing his “independent, conservative” values and garnering the endorsement of outgoing Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, whom Harris defeated in a bitter GOP primary.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

Maryland Republican establishment fears Murphy’s Law in November

One advantage of having a late primary as Maryland does is the lack of downtime between the primary and the campaign — the survivors don’t have to wind the machine back up from a primary fight months before once Labor Day rolls around. Instead, winners get to keep their campaigns cranked up in high gear for another seven weeks.

But the late primary also gives the losers a role. In a divisive fight, the winner has to quickly convince supporters of the loser that they need to get onboard with his or her effort. Generally, those who succeed in November are the ones who gathered the united front shortly after the primary by soothing the wounds deflated supporters of the losing campaigns inflict by a crushing defeat.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

GOP seeks big gains in deep blue Maryland

I actually played with the title a bit, but here’s the first paragraph of my debut for Pajamas Media:

It’s been over twenty years since Maryland voted Republican in a presidential race, and even longer that Democrats have dominated the state’s congressional delegation and General Assembly. But the Free State has some interesting races dotting the political landscape and Republicans are confident they will taste some rare success.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

The idea is that I’ll be covering Maryland races (mostly the Governor’s race) for the website through the election with occasional articles and commentary. It’s an exciting opportunity to place my writing on a truly national stage, as opposed to a regionally-based subsite of a larger national site.