January 2008 – Page 4

Impact of Iowa

Just a few things at first blush…I’ll have more reaction in the morning.

Obviously Mike Huckabee overcame some late stumbles to win on the GOP side. But while most of the pundits think these results gravely wounded Mitt Romney, I’m not putting up a post-mortem on him until at least the Florida primary later this month. That contest could be a key for viability for a number of campaigns even though few delegates will be at stake because Florida jumped the gun.
On the Democrat side, finishing Obama, Edwards, Clinton (proportionally the numbers work out about 38-30-30) certainly means the bloom is off the “inevitability” rose for Hillary. But now what will all the jokesters do? It’s much more politically incorrect to make fun of Obama than it is to make fun of Hillary – the “testicle lockbox” stuff doesn’t work with B. Hussein Obama.
Honestly I don’t think Iowa is as conservative a state as most make it out to be. They had a much larger turnout for the Democrats than the GOP, and aside from the really out-there fringe left, went for the two most liberal Democrats (not that there was a whole lot of difference) and the most populist Republican. Since I happen to think Duncan Hunter is the most conservative person in the race, his asterisk performance is disheartening.
Speaking of asterisk performances, I sort of figured we’d lose one or two candidates after Iowa and indeed Chris Dodd has exited the race on the Democrat side. Late word is that Joe Biden is joining him in dropping his bid. A plagiarizer to the last.

With 85% of the vote in on the GOP side, here were the results according to the Des Moines Register:

Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Ronmey 25%
Fred Thompson 14%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4%

Since that adds up to 100% that must mean Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, etc. have less than 1 percent. But I think we’re going to have everyone stay in on the GOP side at least through New Hampshire, hopefully Duncan Hunter competes better there.

I should have a little more candidate reaction tomorrow and we’ll see what develops overnight.

12:15 a.m. – Yes, I’m still up. Michelle Malkin pointed out a piece on Duncan Hunter in New Hampshire today, and I felt compelled to comment quoting a tidbit from Rush’s show Thursday afternoon.

Pipkin on the issues

Remember when I looked at the First Congressional District candidates on a number of issues ranging from eminent domain to their position on the Long War? Well, I’d love to do the same thing with E.J. Pipkin but he is practically a one-issue candidate, talking extensively about taxes. Between his website and his frequent mailings, I’ve only identified two parts of his platform he talks at any length about: taxes and border security. There’s many other topics he states support for but doesn’t go in depth, such as “protect our 2nd Amendment rights” or “fully fund our troops so we can win the war against terror.”

That’s not to say I disagree with a large portion of what he says, it just makes it more difficult for me to compare and contrast what he stands for to other candidates who write more extensively on issues. It’ll affect his eventual score.

Another thing he spends time talking about that’s not a pet issue of mine is his environmental stance, which to me includes his crusade against BG&E trying to recoup its costs for providing power to thousands of Marylanders. As he states on a mailing, “It’s wrong for big power companies to get rich off the backs of Maryland families struggling to make ends meet.” But if their cost for the materials to create electrical power goes up, what else are they supposed to do, lose money for their shareholders? I hate it when politicians play the class envy card, in this case against “rich” corporations. More troubling to me is whether he’d extend that same discourtesy to oil companies who attempt to improve their facilities, pass on their increasing raw material costs, or explore domestically for additional supplies. Most of you know I have that argument with Wayne Gilchrest.

Of the twelve items I scored other candidates on, there’s only five I can score for Pipkin. I will say that four of those are my top four but again a lack of depth will cost him.

His pledge to “protect 2nd Amendment rights” will give him one point of the seven I awarded for that issue, simply because he’s not specific. For example, will he roll back government infringement on those rights?
On taxation, because he does only the half-measure as I see it of keeping Bush’s tax cuts in force and abolishing the death tax, he’ll get 10.5 of the 21 points. More points would be his if he expressed support for the FairTax or more importantly repealing the Sixteenth Amendment. And while he also notes that tax cuts create jobs, ditching all of the red tape that Washington enforces would do so much more.
He encroaches a little bit on my “role of government” category and its 23 points by advocating a Balanced Budget Amendment. To make that effective though he needs to work hard to cut spending and lower taxes, not make the taxes fit the spending. And what about baseline budgeting? I’ll give him three points.
Border security and immigration is worth 25 possible points. It’s probably his strongest category, to be quite honest. And while it lacks some specifics, he addresses both sides of the issue in border security and employment. So I’ll give him 15 points there.
He does want to support the troops and win the Long War. I’ve given the points for less so why not all 27 of them here?

When I add them up, he comes out like this in the standings. I deleted John Leo Walter since he dropped out of the race.

Andy Harris, 87.5 points
E.J. Pipkin, 56.5 points
Robert Banks, 37 points
Joe Arminio, 22 points
Wayne Gilchrest, -20 points

It’s getting to be a race with three distinct points on the moderate to conservative scale among the three top challengers. On the moderate end is Wayne Gilchrest, on the conservative end is Andy Harris, and manning the middle of the road is E.J. Pipkin.

But we know what happens to those who inhabit the middle of the road, don’t we?

One against two

So who’s the real conservative in the District One Congressional race? Andy Harris lets fly with a reminder:

State Senator Andy Harris today launched his second television ad of the campaign. The ad factually contrasts Andy’s conservative record with the liberal records of his two tax-and-spend opponents.

“Being a fiscal conservative means opposing both higher taxes and wasteful government spending,” said Andy Harris. “Republicans in Maryland want conservative representation and I am the only conservative in this race.”

The ad shows Gilchrest and Pipkin’s records as two tax-and-spend peas in a giant liberal pod. E.J. Pipkin voted for Governor O’Malley’s budget (HB 50, 2007). Gilchrest voted for over 20 billion dollars in new taxes in one month alone.

The script of the ad is below:

Announcer: E.J. Pipkin is called a “Hero to Democrats” and even supported Governor O’Malley’s Budget costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

That’s Liberal.

So is Wayne Gilchrest. Gilchrest raised taxes 20 billion dollars in just one month.

That’s Liberal.

Pipkin and Gilchrest are two tax-and-spend peas in a giant liberal pod. Too Liberal for us. Fortunately conservatives have Andy Harris. Andy Harris for Congress.

Andy: I’m Andy Harris and I approved this message.

Well, I approve the message too. But there’s a question that some have and that is what Andy plans on accomplishing if elected? It’s one thing to campaign negatively against your two closest primary opponents, but some of us want to know what you plan on achieving in Washington. Do you plan on being in the district on a regular basis listening to your constituents and the grassroots or will we only see you in even-numbered years?

Then again, fellow MBA blogger Mike Netherland has his own questions for E.J. Pipkin:

I need to know what exactly makes you think that your candidacy will achieve the main goal of throwing the bum out? The way I see it your candidacy virtually guarantees Gilchrest another term. Please convince me that I am wrong.

Remember the poll that Senator Pipkin trumpeted last week? All it noted was that he was second and Andy Harris was third, but Wayne Gilchrest was still on top. If those results were to hold on February 12, it’s just a Phyrric victory for conservatives of the First District who only succeeded in showing they were a majority of the voters but keep the same moderate Congressman.

Tomorrow I’ll take a look at how much E.J. Pipkin and I see eye-to-eye on the issues.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

If you can’t beat ’em…

I cached from BlogNetNews the lead to a Salisbury News post that started out this way…

Monoblogue & Brian Griffiths believe they have calculated who were the best Blogs in the State of Maryland according to Blognetnews. However, they forget to mention how several of these Blogs are cheating the system.

Then he went on to talk about how I crosspost with Red Maryland and only do one post per day. Joe’s post was only up a few hours before it was pulled after a comment I made. Normally I keep lengthy comments but in this case I didn’t. Hey, I figured I’d wait to see what the reaction was and it looks like the reaction was pulling the post.

Let’s face facts here. Unless a website is a private site anyone who puts the time and effort into doing one is interested in having as many people read the site as possible. In my case, I use Red Maryland to expand my audience since people who are into politics (one of my target audiences) go there to read the perspectives of RM contributors.

Besides, if I were doing this to game the influence rating system one would think Red Maryland would be the number one site, what with all the crosslinks it has. But generally it sits around 5th or so, some weeks higher and some lower.

So what do I see this morning but a new “partnership” between G.A. Harrison of Delmarva Dealings and Joe Albero’s Salisbury News site? I’m glad Delmarva Dealings is back and obviously G.A. wants more eyeballs on what he has to say. But the timing on this affair does strike me as a little odd, especially after Joe pulled the post I alluded to above.

It’s not like Joe should have anything to hang his head about – after all, his overall influence rank was #4 so only Brian Griffiths, Free State Politics (also a collaborative effort), and I had a higher influence ranking. I’m also led by his boasting to believe he has a much higher readership than I but since he’s a news site with frequent updates and I’m primarily once-a-day commentary that’s to be expected. I’ll be the first to admit I check on Joe’s site a few times a day.

I guess what frosts me is the accusation of gaming the system. I didn’t ask to become a contributor to Red Mayland, Streiff invited me after reading my website and finding that my commentary was to his liking and I would think well-written in his eyes. Obviously I said yes and I’m honored to contribute to the site. It wasn’t done to artificially pump up my influence numbers because I think I earn what I have through my writing. Truly I think I do have a top-tier political site in Maryland because I don’t always accept things at face value.

All right, enough of my grousing. I’ll be back to politics later tonight. We have a big caucus day tomorrow in Iowa, you know, not to mention Congressional news.

Maryland blogs to watch in 2008

Sometime today Brian Griffiths will steal a bit of my thunder. Independently we both worked out a top 20 list for Maryland political blogs based on the BlogNetNews Influence index for the year (and it comes out the same since we used the same methodology! Great minds think alike?) So I’m going to allow him to post his list, but since I’m a forward-looking sort I’m going to go through some of the blogs to watch in 2008. Most of these are on the BlogNetNews list already for 2007 but there’s a few who aren’t or didn’t make the top 20 list Brian and I compiled.

These will be listed in alphabetical order, with their BlogNetNews rank in parentheses if it applies. I automatically took those who were in the top ten of the ratings over the last two months since they’re ones who are most relevant now, not resting on their laurels built up during the summer and fall.

Annapolis Capital Punishment (overall rank 14th, last 2 months 8th)

Since Paul Foer, the writer of ACP, is a self-proclaimed “progressive” don’t expect to actually find any talk about the death penalty here. His focus tends to be on Annapolis proper and as most bloggers do he finds fault with the way things are run. I’m certainly not one who agrees with the political side of his equation (after all, he has the 01.20.09 countdown on his site) but watchdogs are good from both sides of the fence.

Annapolis Politics (overall rank 12th, last 2 months 7th)

Brian Gill is one of my fellow contributors at Red Maryland, so as one might expect he’s on the conservative side. He got his blog cranking up over last summer and since becoming a RM contributor he’s amped up the posting schedule, keeping it pretty regular on both sides. As the title suggests, he focuses a lot on Anne Arundel-area items but since that’s the state capital, a good deal of state doings creep in as well.

Brian Griffiths (overall rank 1st, last 2 months 1st)

Another Red Maryland stalwart, Brian is also a busy guy off the blogs as he’s running to be a Delegate to the Republican Party’s national convention in Minneapolis. You may have also run across the Brian Griffiths Minute on his website – he’s definitely a guy who’s mastered the video medium as well. Brian’s a guy to watch in state politics and this makes me wonder if a run for higher elective office isn’t somewhere in his future.

Free State Politics (overall rank 3rd, last 2 months 5th)

Billing itself as an “Maryland’s online progressive commmunity”, the site has a number of contributors who look at issues from the left side of the spectrum. It’s the counterbalance to Red Maryland which, in a poorly-executed case of foreshadowing, also appears farther down the list. And of course a good part of their blog is smack-talk at those of us who contribute to Red Maryland, but that’s to be expected I suppose.

Gunpowder Chronicle (BNN member but not ranked)

I’m placing this website on my list because I want to see all of his ideas on how to “starve the beast,” that beast being the government plaguing our state capital. Generally the site is well written, my only knock on it is how sporadically the posts come up. If the feature can be a regular one, this is definitely a website to keep an eye on. I believe if he can make that series a success, he’ll have a top 20 website in 2008.

Hedgehog Report (overall rank 6th, last 2 months 18th)

The first of my cohorts in the Maryland Bloggers Alliance, David Wissing spends a lot of time looking at polling data on a national scale. Having just celebrated his 5th anniversary as a blogger, he’s probably the dean of political bloggers in Maryland (or at least right up there) and with this being an election year, Hedgehog Report is a great place to get a poll fix and see how your favored candidate is doing.

Maryland Politics Today (overall rank 10th, last 2 months not rated)

P. Kenneth Burns took a short hiatus from active blogging, which is why he wasn’t rated in November or December. But he has returned to the fold over the last few days. Kenny also is an MBA member and a Red Maryland contributor, but makes his living in other areas of the media so his site has a more professional look than most. Before his hiatus his was a good political resource, so welcome back. I’m expecting good things from you this year.

Maryland Politics Watch (overall rank 19th, last 2 months 9th)

Here’s another group effort coming from the left side of the blogosphere. As the name suggests, these folks look mostly at state politics but from the Montgomery County perspective. Obviously that gives them a built-in audience. They don’t seem to have the element of smack talk that their fellow travelers at Free State Politics do but that may change as they become more noticed. They made the top 20 with their late push so momentum is on their side.

monoblogue (overall rank 2nd, last 2 months 2nd)

Yeah, I’m number 2 so I guess I try harder. Since you’re here (or my crosspost on Red Maryland) reading this it’s probably apparent what I’m about so I don’t need to describe myself too much. Some of my goals for 2008 are here.

O’Malley Watch (not a BNN member)

If this website were in the rankings, I think the rest of us would be knocked down a peg just based on the number of comments Martin Watcher gets. Pointing out the many flaws of the O’Malley administration, not only is the site pretty well written and updated regularly, it also has a number of regular commenters who add a lot to the discussion. Of course, its shelf life will depend on what Hillary decides to do for VP should she get the nomination – Brown Watch sounds like an anti-UPS site.

Pocomoke Tattler (overall rank 7th, last 2 months 3rd)

One small Eastern Shore community on the Virginia border + one man who considers himself a watchdog against the corruption he sees in his city’s government = Pocomoke Tattler. In a lot of respects, Billy Burke works as the investigative reporter that small town newspapers don’t have. It’s one of the advantages of the internet and the opportunity to have your voice heard even when those in control don’t want to listen. His is a true “petition (to) the Government for a redress of grievances.”

PolitickerMD (not a BNN member)

One of a network of similar sites in other states, PolitickerMD reads the most like a news site as it posts frequent nuggets about political doings in our state. I’ve noted that it’s “must-reading for political junkies” and it should prove to be a good resource for information from all across the state as the Congressional elections occur.

Red Maryland (overall rank 5th, last 2 months 4th)

This site works because it has a number of different viewpoints on how best to combat the liberal scourge both here in Maryland and nationally. None of us (there’s 15 contributors who add content to various degrees) are too shy about expressing our opinions and having Red Maryland gives all of us an opportunity to expose these to a wider audience. That wide participation means that a cornucopia of subjects are covered and the site updates frequently.

Salisbury News (overall rank 4th, last 2 months 6th)

Joe Albero and I have a friendly sort of rivalry going among Salisbury-area bloggers, but he tends to be more along the lines of Pocomoke Tattler and focus on local political issues whereas I generally do not. He has branched out somewhat in the last year though, in particular securing first rights to weekly updates from Andy Harris’s Congressional campaign. But his biggest rival is our local paper, the Daily Times, and he loves to scoop them when it comes to breaking news.

Worcester Right (overall rank 15th, last 2 months 10th)

In general, Worcester Right is a news roundup site although “Caughtit” does chime in with original opinion posts occasionally. I’ll definitely say that he (or she) is a well-read person because there’s a number of different stories on a daily basis from all over the news. Oddly enough given the name there’s not a lot of emphasis on local issues from the Ocean City and Snow Hill area.

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So these are fifteen blogs to keep an eye on for 2008. As is often the case, some of these will thrive while others fade away or take extended breaks. One thing that tends to be a common thread between these is their frequency of posting as the contributors place a lot of time and effort into maintaining their sites.

While it’s true a small percentage of people actually read blogs on a regular basis, consider that it was only in the last decade that political campaigns began to use the World Wide Web as a tool to sway voters – yet it’s made candidates like Howard Dean in 2004 or Ron Paul this year much better known than their actual political jobs. Recently Ron Paul raised over $6 million in one day primarily through the internet so its power is being realized. These fifteen websites are among the pioneers who take the arrows and as more and more people get their news online, their power and stature is sure to grow in this pivotal election year.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

Late edit: Isaac Smith of Free State Politics has a few others that I could have included, but I decided to stick to about 15 in order to not make this a tremendously long post.