Pipkin and “pay to play”

Since a story by Brad Olson on the Baltimore Sun blog came out on Friday about E.J. Pipkin and his wife donating $1,000 each to Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, much hay has been made about the allegations of “pay to play.” This contribution was actually unearthed by the Club For Growth, a group that has endorsed opponent Andy Harris in Maryland’s February 12th primary.

In claiming he had “no apologies about protecting the Bay,” Pipkin’s campaign had this to say about the contributions:

Recently the Club for Growth has made a media purchase for Andy Harris. In the accompanying press release, there is a reference to a political contribution made by EJ Pipkin to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Pipkin made that donation while a private citizen fighting Democrat Governor Glendening’s efforts to dump in the Chesapeake Bay. The Bay was under attack and Pipkin was using every means possible to protect this unique natural resource.

“I attended an event that had the decision makers in the room. I made our case and they agreed that they dumping should not take place. I make no apologies for doing whatever it took to protect the bay. At the time, it was the most direct way to reach key leaders that were determining the fate of the dumping issue.” Pipkin stated regarding the donation.

Pippin’s campaign manager Mike Brown adds, “The Club for Growth is an extremist group that is nothing more than a front organization set up to funnel money and skirt campaign finance laws. The fact that they are making a buy of this size just shows that they know the same thing we know, Harris is a pitiful candidate and is running an amateur campaign at best.”

Brown continues, “We all know what the polls are showing, Harris is stalled with twenty percent of the vote. Republicans are rejecting his message of hate and negativity. Unfortunately for the Club for Growth, they are aligned with a losing candidate and are desperately trying to not be beaten one ore (sic) time at the ballot box.”

Whether or not the Club For Growth is an extremist organization is up to the reader to decide. The fact is this contribution was made in May of 2000, two years before Pipkin entered electoral politics. In that same cycle (October 2000 and May 2001) he also made two contributions to a man who is now his opponent, Wayne Gilchrest, totaling $1,550. Also Pipkin contributed $2,000 to President Bush’s re-election in December of 2003. Honestly, this is the same reason thousands of other big contributors (such as PAC’s) donate to candidates, just to get that much more of a voice in the political process.

Obviously, Andy’s campaign takes a dimmer view. Campaign manager Chris Meekins noted:

If Pipkin is proud that as a private citizen he was able to buy the influence of an elected official to get what he wanted; does he also believe it is acceptable for an elected official to be influenced by a political contribution?

Donating to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was a poor decision. Trying to use a political donation to influence an elected official is just plain wrong.

I am very disappointed that Senator Pipkin is proud of using a political donation to influence an elected official.

Personally I’m not sure this issue is one that Pipkin hasn’t spun to his advantage. One thing I’ve noticed as a person who’s come from outside Maryland is that there’s just as much advantage in making people believe you’re doing something “for the Bay” as there is in most other places for doing political acts “for the children.”

Raise taxes? Terrible decision. Raise taxes to clean up the Bay? A necessary evil. It’s like a Teflon coating to any political decision.

In truth, Pipkin did what most corporate interests do to maintain their competitive advantage – donate to the party in power at the time. It’s no secret that the Maryland GOP has fallen on financial hard times and part of it stems from losing all of the corporate donations which came from having the governor’s chair. In doing so though Pipkin also placed a tacit stamp of approval on all of the other acts the Glendening administration supported whether intended or not. Of all the parts to this allegation, that is what troubles me the most. I’m not sure I buy the Harris “stalled at 20% part” either.

On the other hand, I’ll also take a moment to note that there’s a dissenting view about my assertion that this is a safe Republican seat. A blogger at the heretofore unknown to me Mainstream Shore argues that a “sensible Republican” is needed to beat odds-on Democrat favorite Frank Kratovil.

But I’ll remind the nice lady (obviously a Pipkin supporter) that once it’s found out what Frank Kratovil really stands for, particularly on health care and the Long War, it’ll be apparent that Frank is really foursquare behind Nancy Pelosi and the other moonbats in Congress on a number of key issues. Again, I’ll be shocked if Kratovil gets 40% in the general no matter the opponent.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

More on the greening of Greensburg

I wasn’t out to make this a multipart series, but commentor ShoreThings made the point on my prior article that a 42% reduction of energy use is a good thing. And like I’ve stated before, as an architect I can appreciate the concept of saving energy but as I replied to ShoreThings, there’s a cost vs. benefit aspect that has to be factored in.

One example is where I was talking to a GacoWestern company rep yesterday, a company who sells (among other things) waterproofing membranes. They’ve found their products are in demand for “green” roofs, better known as roof gardens.

In talking with the salesman, I asked the obvious question: who takes care of a green roof? Obviously there’s a landscaping cost involved because if the green stuff dies, all you’re carrying then is a lot of dead stuff at the top of the building. That cost has to be factored in against the energy savings, along with possibly the additional structure needed to support such a dead load. To me, a better alternative is simply to have a light-colored surface on the roof.

In Greensburg’s case, the energy savings is noble. But here’s a summary of seven prerequisite items their buildings MUST comply with to even be considered for LEED Platinum compliance:

  • Sustainable Sites: Construction Activity Pollution Prevention. Create and implement an Erosion and Sedimentation Control plan.

This extends a federal guideline to any site, even if under one acre (the federal cutoff.)

  • Energy and Atmosphere: Fundamental Commissioning of the Building Energy Systems. Designate a Commissioning Authority to oversee the design and construction of building energy systems, including but not limited to HVAC, lighting, domestic hot water, and renewable energy systems.

Depending on the size of the building, this can be done by personnel of the design firm or owner, but in larger buildings this has to be independent. It is up to the owner to document Owner’s Project Requirements while the design team does a Basis of Design – the Commissioning Authority verifies their incorporation into the design and construction and generates a final report. Most buildings on the scale Greensburg is looking at can be done without an independent party to regulate compliance.

  • Energy and Atmosphere: Minimum Energy Performance. Comply with a number of sections in the ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1-2004 standard.

These standards cover the building envelope, HVAC, water heating, power requirements, and lighting.

  • Energy and Atmosphere: Fundamental Refrigerant Management. No CFC-based refrigerants in new buildings, or phase-out for existing buildings.

Not all refrigerants are created equal, either. They vary in what the standard calls “ozone-depleting” and “global warming” potentials.

  • Materials and Resources: Storage and Collection of Recyclables. Provide an easily accessible area for building occupants to collect and store (at a minimum) paper, corrugated cardboard, glass, plastics, and metals.

Note that the requirement has a minimum of square footage required to be designated as a collection area based on the building square footage – a 10,000 s.f. building requires a 125 s.f. area set aside for this purpose, for example.

  • Environmental Quality: Minimum IAQ Performance. Comply with minimum standards of ASHRAE 62.1-2004, Sections 4 to 7.

In layman’s terms, they want to make sure air moves through the building, with preference given to natural ventilation.

  • Environmental Quality: Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS) Control. Minimize exposure of building occupants, indoor surfaces, and ventilation and air distribution systems to ETS.

Here you either have to ban smoking from the building entirely (plus an area 25′ or less from any entry, air intake, or operable window), shunt them to a smoking room inside the building with separate ventilation, or, in residential buildings, seal units and pressurize the corridors so that smoke tends to stay inside units.

Only one of those directly deals with saving energy while another two are peripheral to the notion. But then you have two prerequisites that seek to modify or influence behavior with the recycling and the ETS control, and that gets farther afield from where I think the emphasis should be. Remember, these must be met to even get started with the LEED certification process. To be fair, however, the resolution doesn’t require actual U.S. Green Building Council approval (fortunate, because that process costs several thousand dollars) but in order to meet such a lofty standard most of the projects will have to meet most of the other requirements detailed here in a 78-page .pdf file. (The book I studied to pass my LEED exam was some of the driest 400+ pages I’ve ever read.)

It’s a long dissertation to reply to a single comment, but this is background that I think is helpful to understand when the radical environmentalists start pushing their green buildings mantra. The energy savings they get from LEED standard compliance is just a fortunate selling point, but what they really want is to maximize government control over what’s placed on the properties that we the people own.

Green that will cost Greensburg

Many of you likely recall that the small town of Greensburg, Kansas was practically wiped out by a tornado last spring. The town of about 1,500 people is beginning the rebuilding process with a master plan in mind, and one component of that plan came into effect last month. I found out in my weekly AIA update that the town council is adopting a resolution requiring ALL new and renovated buildings over 4,000 square feet be LEED Platinum certified, including the maximum number of energy efficiency points.

While I’m all for energy efficiency in buildings, I think the issue I have with this is the degree of compliance required. It begs two major questions in my mind. First of all, what sort of payback period can be expected by buildings achieving Platinum status? Then another important question given the circumstances of the town’s rebuilding, who will pay the extra costs incurred by compliance? I’m sure the insurance companies are simply paying whatever they deem a fair replacement value to what was there before the storm struck.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of development occur just outside the town limits to avoid these additional mandates unless the town had a big stick to force builders into line. In the case of a development I’m familiar with, the Crossroads at Salisbury, water and sewer service only was granted once annexation to the city was agreed to, and I can see Greensburg trying a similar tactic with businesses on its border.

This is going to be an interesting laboratory to follow though, because you can bet that cities large and small where government has swallowed the hype about global climate change will consider similar legislation.

And I’m waiting for more states (such as Maryland, they’ll jump right in line on this) to adopt a provision like California is threating to, one where your thermostat may be set to the state’s liking, not yours. Attention planets of the Solar Federation, we have assumed control.

Who decides?

This is a post many moons in the making. Part of it is my frustration with the people who are in the running on my side for President, and part of it is just a general observation of the political scene over the last dozen or so years I’ve been active and paid attention.

I’ll start with the ancient past and bring it up to the present quickly. My old hometown of Toledo, Ohio has had a fixture in Congress for the last quarter-century by the name of Marcy Kaptur. Every two years we on the Republican side would duly nominate a candidate to oppose her in the general election and call on her to debate our nominee so voters could compare and contrast her with our guy, an offer she continually refused. What I thought I should have expected from our local media outlets that regularly called for having two strong parties in local and state politics would be a call for Ms. Kaptur to debate the issues in a public forum, instead we got silence – well, except for the regular endorsement she got from our local paper that cited her record in Congress.

I used to think the charge of the media was trying to educate voters and encouraging candidates to defend their records. In Kaptur’s case, the local newspaper decided to allow her to control her own message and the delivery by not holding her feet to the fire and joining our call to debate the issues. Given that and the natural advantage she has running as a Democrat in a heavily unionized area, she regularly won with 70-80% of the vote without having to undergo the slightest of scrutiny. On the other hand, that same newspaper was the one who broke and regularly featured the “Coingate” scandal that all but destroyed the Ohio Republican Party in 2006.

We all know there’s media bias in effect. To that end, I’m not denying I have an editorial bias either – anyone who’s read monoblogue for a week can pretty much tell which side of the aisle I inhabit. (They can also tell I’m a sports fan and follow local music, but that’s not germaine to this discussion.)

In the last couple months as the Presidential primary has approached, we’ve seen national media ramp up its coverage of the 2008 election, which is understandable. But are you getting the whole story? If you’ve watched the cable networks or read their internet sites, you’d think that Hillary’s comeback in New Hampshire is the whole story and it’s a big deal because big girls do cry yet they win anyway. Has that advanced any of the things we should be voting on though? In case they’ve forgotten, we have troops in several countries overseas fighting against a militant Islamic threat, not to mention the economic and security threat we quite possibly have spilling through our porous southern border that was supposed to have a new fence built on it.

And that doesn’t count domestic issues like health care, energy, and the role of the federal government in addressing those issues. Instead, the cable networks concentrate on two things: personality issues and the horse-race aspect of the electoral sweepstakes.

On occasion, these networks will have or cover debates between the candidates on each side but how meaningful and specific of an answer can you get on energy independence or national security in 60 seconds? Sometimes these debates make more news for who they exclude than for what is said, and in both cases that bothers me.

I have to admit that I’m more of a political junkie than 98% of the population, probably just under those who actually make their living in the field. I’m also passionate about these things to such a degree that I would get involved in the electoral process and election day became my personal Super Bowl. The only difference is that I’d play the game for 13 hours and not know the score until later that evening.

In the 2008 election, before even one vote was cast, the networks and media were already deciding who they thought should be covered and by extension who they wanted to secure the nomination. So most of the coverage seemed to be around Hillary Clinton, with begruding attention to GOP candidate Rudy Giuliani. To the media that set up a perfect horse race between two New York politicians, the dream race they wanted on the 2000 undercard. By getting a Hillary/Rudy race they would get the pair they wanted – the wife of a media darling on one side and, just in case Rudy won, someone who was arguably the most socially liberal candidate. They could always hammer him on national security, having had 7 years of practice with President Bush.

The ace in the hole that these media forces have is that the American public is dreadfully uninformed and for the most part the information they get filters through the lens they provide. Let’s face it: in a country that truly was educated and informed, people would say “Britney who?” In a country that was truly informed, everyone who came into the voting booth would know in some detail where everyone who was on the ballot stood on the important issues of the day. They’d also have been educated on how what these candidates wanted to achieve compared with the rules of the road detailed in the Constitution. (I bet if you asked 100 Americans, you couldn’t get five of them to detail what the main point of any four of the ten Amendments in the Bill of Rights were.)

Tonight there’s another debate on FOX. While this time Ron Paul was included, they still left out several candidates on the South Carolina ballot. Most of them aren’t included because they’re not on many state ballots, but Duncan Hunter was excluded despite being on most states’ ballots. In his case, the media makes things a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I’ll use Hunter as an example because I happen to support him, but one could look at Mike Gravel or Dennis Kucinich on the Democrat side or another GOP hopeful, Alan Keyes. Hunter declared his candidacy in November 2006 and by January of last year he was already being declared a “longshot.” At that time, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain were the so-called frontrunners but the question was already starting to be asked by the GOP conservative base as to who would be their candidate, since neither frontrunner was completely acceptable to those in the grassroots for some views they held. Giuliani angered social conservatives by being pro-choice and McCain was known as a “maverick” Republican who voted for amnesty and sponsored an ill-thought campaign finance reform package.

But both Giuliani and McCain had something Hunter didn’t – media on their side. Every move they made had coverage, while Hunter toiled in obscurity. In fact, I didn’t find out he was running until I did a search on Presidential candidates. I knew McCain, Giuliani, and Mitt Romney were in but didn’t know about most of the rest until I did the search to determine who I would back. And the question about who disaffected conservatives would support seemed more to be whether Fred Thompson would get in, since he had star power as an actor. Never mind that there were already candidates in the race that had conservative records like Hunter and Tom Tancredo. The media had already dismissed them as “second-tier” candidates before a single vote was cast, even in the Ames Straw Poll. Based on those results, both Giuliani and McCain should have been relegated to second-tier status (Rudy had 1 percent and McCain even less.) Of course, that was explained away by the media and they even found a new darling in Mike Huckabee.

My point is that, instead of the people picking the best candidate, the media annointed a chosen few that they preferred and a sheepish public followed right along. They did polls which were simply preference based on name recognition and worked their coverage to those who scored highest for the most part, continuing the vicious cycle. They even resurrected John McCain after the outcry over the amnesty bill would have killed a more conservative candidate that wouldn’t have had a sympathetic media behind him.

And the media continues to control the destiny of a party, the party they wouldn’t vote for when they close the voting curtain behind them.

So in 2008 it looks like we’ll have a flawed candidate on the GOP side, at least flawed in the respect that there’s at least one issue guaranteed to keep some single-issue voters home on Election Day.

With John McCain, it’s amnesty and campaign finance.

With Mitt Romney, it’s his recent conversion to a more conservative stance on a number of issues. Is he sincere?

With Mike Huckabee, his feelings on illegal immigration and record as governor on taxation worry the conservative base.

With Rudy Giuliani, it’s his pro-choice stance and his messy personal life.

With Fred Thompson, people question his “fire in the belly.” He got in late to high expectations but aside from a few highlights such as the hand-raising incident just hasn’t ran that exciting of a campaign.

Finally, Ron Paul winning is just too scary of a prospect for most GOP regulars.

Those six are the six-pack that are debating in Myrtle Beach as I write this.

And the media isn’t helping with some of these folks. Mitt Romney’s campaign is finished if he doesn’t win Michigan, they say. Fred Thompson will be sunk if he doesn’t take South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani’s adopted the wrong strategy by ignoring the early states. But McCain is the GOP’s comeback kid for winning New Hampshire (where he won in 2000, so why was that unexpected?) In Iowa, the buzz was Mike Huckabee beating Mitt Romney but then he was second in the Ames Straw Poll so it wasn’t that great a stretch for him to win there.

Of course, the Democrats aren’t being ignored here. The media loves the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama because there’s also the star power of Hollywood involved – Oprah stumping for Obama and Hollywood fundraisers for Hillary by the score. And America, to its discredit, laps it up unquestioningly. Well, most of America.

Luckily there are people asking the questions, but the problem is that no one feels the need to answer them because those who are asking aren’t considered mainstream enough to merit the attention. The internet is a powerful force but still fewer than 10% get their news from the blogs and much of that comes from the outlets used by the cable news networks and newspapers so it’s the same old info on a different outlet.

Someday America will wake up to the fraud being perpetrated on them by those elements in the media who want to usurp the power people hold at the ballot box. I’m afraid the election in 2008 isn’t going to set off the alarm bells though.

Another Presidential race victim

According to an AP report, Democrat Bill Richardson is dropping out of the race after a pair of finishes out of the money in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Aside from asterisk candidates Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel, it leaves the Democrats in a three-way race between Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards. But given Edwards’ weak showing in New Hampshire (just 17%) and the star-power his two opponents have, it’s probably a matter of time before Edwards pulls the plug too. Likely it will be after Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Like Kucinich, Richardson was stridently anti-war, calling for an immediate pullout in Iraq as a key issue.

While the official announcement is set for tomorrow, I’m thinking that Richardson will be leaving the race and endorsing Hillary since he’s a former member of the Clinton Administration and loyalty is paramount among those folks. While a 5% share like he got in New Hampshire doesn’t seem like much, don’t forget that if Richardson goes on the stump for Hillary, he’s one who can get identity votes for her as a Latino and has other political bonafides as a governor of a border state (New Mexico). In fact, getting out of the way this early just may be a setup for a Hillary/Bill ticket.

Another factor in that possible strategy is the possibility of flipping New Mexico to the Democrat column as President Bush eked out a 6,000 vote win in 2004 out of about 750,000 cast. Putting Richardson on the ticket could also put other states with heavily Latino populations in play.

On the GOP side, pundit Robert Novak is weighing in on the future of Mitt Romney, saying that if Romney doesn’t overcome John McCain in Michigan, his campaign is finished. Novak writes:

A loss for Romney in Michigan, which now looks likely, will eliminate him…Romney’s second loss puts his well-financed campaign at death’s door.

For many Republicans, Romney was simply the “electable conservative.” Once he lost to Huckabee, that title vanished.

Myself, I think Romney will survive at least until Super Tuesday. As several other candidates who have lost have stated, we’ve only seen two states vote so far and Romney did win the majority of delegates in Wyoming. If he keeps pulling off close finishes while others take turns at the top, we may have a brokered convention.

Pollsters blow it in NH

I was just listening to Frank Luntz on FOX News about the New Hampshire pre-primary polling. Stating that the turnout models are “broken”, he also cited that negativity is deadly in this campaign, “particularly on the GOP side”, and that 17-19% of the New Hampshire voters didn’t decide until they showed up at the polls.

That may be why Hillary did much better than expected and is yet another reminder that, in the words of Yogi Berra, “it ain’t over until it’s over.”

So what does that mean for Maryland? I think it means that Andy Harris might want to rethink his relentlessly negative campaign (at least as far as media goes) for one thing and start building up a good base of volunteers for February 12th. The media approach to me is odd because his stump speeches are more positive than what I hear on my TV and radio about the other candidates courtesy of Harris.

Let’s assume what E.J. Pipkin polled a couple weeks ago is true for the sake of argument. He polled about a 7% split between first and third place, but as malleable as things seem to be in the 2008 political landscape, a 7% lead even on February 11th isn’t safe. If you ask me, it’s going to come down to how many volunteers show up in the last 72 hours to work for campaigns because there’s a lot of people who just haven’t decided yet for various reasons. (Maybe because the campaigns are absurdly long now?)

A lot will change nationally before we have our say here, as we missed out on “Super Duper Tuesday” by a week in order to create a mini-regional primary with Virginia and the District of Columbia. Meanwhile, Delaware is totally lost within the February 5th states as probably the smallest state set to vote that day. But there will likely still be 2 to 3 candidates viable on both sides of the equation when we get to choose our next President.

More direct to us on the Eastern Shore is having our say on who will represent us in Congress. On the Democrat side, Frank Kratovil is getting together an army of ready-made volunteers via his union endorsements so whoever wins the GOP side will need to mend fences and recruit his own cadre of workers to counter them.

Finally, it’s a bit of a hike for me, but those of you on the upper Shore and just across the bridge will have the opportunity to see a candidate forum Thursday night at Chesapeake College. I’m not certain of the time, but I’m certain that someone who reads this would know and comment either here or on Red Maryland since I’m crossposting this article.

5 weeks out…

First District news abounds from both sides tonight as we move into high gear for the primary election on February 12th.

I’m going to start with the Democrats this evening. After I posted the other day about the teachers’ union endorsement Frank Kratovil received, it wasn’t 48 hours later that he picked up the AFL-CIO endorsement. It buttresses my point about needing to get out a cadre of volunteers in November because Frank’s now going to have thousands more union thugs to work the polls and pre-election for him. Just come knock on my door, folks. I need a good political argument to warm me up for working the polls on November 4th.

As he notes he also has personal endorsements from:

Governor Martin O’Malley, Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, Attorney General Douglas Gansler, Senate President Thomas V. “Mike” Miller, Comptroller Peter Franchot, former Governors Harry Hughes and Parris Glendening, and former Attorney General Joseph Curran.

So it’s a who’s who of the Democrat establishment backing him as well as the unionistas. Speaking of O’Governor, more on him a bit later.

On the other side of the race, Andy Harris claimed a major victory last night in Anne Arundel County:

Andy Harris won a resounding victory Monday night in a straw poll at a dinner remembering the late President Ronald Reagan. Andy Harris trounced his opponents by receiving 67% of the vote – doubling the combined totals of his two opponents. The dinner with guest speaker Michael Reagan was hosted by the Citizens for Better Government Slate, a new Republican committee established to help elect Republicans in Anne Arundel County.

“Andy Harris is the only person in this race who shares Reagan’s values of limited government, personal responsibility, and across-the-board conservatism. It is only appropriate Andy would win the straw poll at an event honoring our greatest president,” said Chris Meekins, Campaign Manager for Harris for Congress.

The dinner was held in Anne Arundel County which contains the largest number of Republican primary voters in the entire first congressional district.

“As I travel throughout the district meeting voters, they want a change to genuine conservative leadership,” said Andy Harris. “Winning this straw poll epitomizes the support I see from Republicans as I travel throughout the entire district.”

Harris picked up 67% of the straw poll vote, with E.J. Pipkin at 22% and Wayne Gilchrest at an 11% share.

According to the PolitickerMD website, Wayne Gilchrest’s campaign manager Tony Caliguiri questioned the victory’s impact:

“No surprise,” reacted Gilchrest spokesperson Tony Caligiuri. “The poll was sponsored by a Harris supporter.”

Caligiuri went on to note that the last straw poll was won by now-withdrawn candidate John Leo Walter. That poll was tallied at a meeting of Wicomico County Republicans in September, but largely took place through voting online while last night’s was conducted entirely in person.

Faithful readers of monoblogue know that Caliguiri is only half right at best, as I helped to put together the Straw Poll in question and served as master of ceremonies. Walter won the fundraiser vote but not the raw totals, where Harris won with 46% of the total. And the vote was NOT held online, as I showed.

One thing I believe is that this result proves again that conservatism wins in a fair fight. Say what you will about the negative tone of Harris’s campaign, it’s shown by at least one neutral observer (the Maryland Accountability Project) that Harris tends to be a few degrees more conservative than E.J. Pipkin in a good apples-to-apples comparison.

Finally, my O’Malley tidbit. A Washington Times poll and accompanying story by Tom LoBianco and Seth McLaughlin showed that Martin O’Malley’s job approval is worse than President Bush’s. 36% of the 500 likely voters surveyed thought Bush was either doing an “excellent” (16%) or “good” (20%) job while the numbers added up to 33% for O’Malley (6% excellent, 27% good).

I guess it’s a good break for O’Malley that he’s not on the 2008 ballot because our last governor was tossed out despite approval ratings in the 50% range. Only the November 7, 2006 poll of about 2 million Marylanders placed Robert Ehrlich under 50 percent. I know hindsight is 20/20, but I’d love to see a poll about who Maryland would vote for today in a rematch.

Enough for tonight, I’m off to see the New Hampshire results roll in.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

Duncan Hunter throws a curveball

After being excluded from this weekend’s New Hampshire debates, the word of an announcement from the Duncan Hunter for President camp had the media thinking that he would exit the race on the eve of the primary tomorrow. Well, guess again! From CNN:

Underdog GOP presidential candidate Duncan Hunter lashed out at “knucklehead media executives” who did not include him in this weekend’s New Hampshire primary debates, telling reporters he was staying in the race despite widespread expectations he would announce his withdrawal.

The conservative California congressman criticized debate organizers at FOX and ABC for not extending him an invitation when “guys with zero delegates” like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain were allowed to participate in the events, saying they “decided my campaign was over, and the lights would be shut out on my campaign.

“So here’s my answer: I’m not going to quit. I’m staying in.”

As Michelle Malkin noted:

Good on Rep. Hunter for sticking it out. As he noted, he picked up one presidential delegate in Wyoming. That’s one more than many of the prez candidates who were allowed to sit at the debate tables.

Exactly, and I stated this the other day when I discussed the debates.

One thing about the elections in states where they have closed primaries is that the more radical and involved partisans tend to vote – conversely, New Hampshire is a state where independents can vote for either party in the primary. Large-scale national polls may not necessarily reflect the degree of passion from the primary voters. It’s why Rudy Giuliani leads in national polling but fared poorly in Iowa and Wyoming, because passionate evangelicals in Iowa contributed mightily to Mike Huckabee’s win and party grassroots along with a little bit of retail politics helped Mitt Romney win in Wyoming. You’ll notice Fred Thompson and Hunter also showed well, reflecting that state’s conservatism. Wyoming is certainly the most “red” state that has expressed its opinion so far.

Another point I previously made was noted by a commentor in Malkin’s post. Hunter doesn’t have a large political base from his Congressional seat so he’s not had the name recognition that a Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, or even Fred Thompson has.

But I do agree with Hunter’s assessment of the media as “knuckleheads” for excluding him (as well as Alan Keyes and Ron Paul) from the debate process. Of course I’m passionate about his campaign because after I studied where he stands on all of my pet issues, he came out on top because I agree most with his views and what he would do (like building a border fence in six months.) Since I have no desire to be President, I wanted someone who would represent my stances and worldview the best and Duncan Hunter is the guy who does that.

Unfortunately, the mainstream media has moved itself into a position where THEY determine which candidates sink or swim. Of course, the 90% plus who don’t read blogs or honestly pay attention to politics until a few days before the primary and just answer polls based solely on name recognition (from the mainstream media of course) make this a self-fulfilling prophecy. I’m one who’s trying to change that but alas it is a slow process.

Maybe I’m in a very small minority of one or two percent, but sometimes that one or two percent is right. Conservatives don’t have to settle for a media-determined so-called frontrunner like Mike Huckabee or John McCain. And doesn’t America always root for the underdog?

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

Message from beyond

A big hat tip goes to Rick Moran at American Thinker for putting up a post about this. As Moran notes:

The blogosphere lost one of its finest on Thursday when Major Andrew Olmsted was killed in action in Iraq.

Olmsted was a great writer who blogged at several sites including his own. His writing was penetrating, incisive, funny, tragic, and heartfelt. He had friends all over the internet who loved him and will miss his presence terribly.

It brings up a lot of questions which have no answers, and reminded me that life is too fragile to spend it arguing over a lot of things that we on the blogosphere locally and across the nation have been fighting over since blogs came about a few years back.

As Olmstead wrote:

The ability to put my thoughts on (virtual) paper and put them where people can read and respond to them has been marvelous, even if most people who have read my writings haven’t agreed with them. If there is any hope for the long term success of democracy, it will be if people agree to listen to and try to understand their political opponents rather than simply seeking to crush them. While the blogosphere has its share of partisans, there are some awfully smart people making excellent arguments out there as well, and I know I have learned quite a bit since I began blogging.

In other words, it’s the Golden Rule. I have no idea if Major Olmstead even read my site, but I’m hoping that if he did this one was an example of the awfully smart people making excellent arguments. In a political sense, it’s why I do links to both sides of the aisle as a bid to inform.

Rest in peace, Major Olmstead.

Romney takes Wyoming

Much as the Eastern Shore and Delaware have been ignored by Presidential candidates, the Republicans in Wyoming didn’t get much love from the partisan media for scheduling their delegate selection process in the break between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary. In fact, only half of their delegates will be seated because they jumped a deadline set by the national GOP.

But they did manage to have at least lip service paid to them by a several candidates as Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, and Duncan Hunter all made campaign visits to Wyoming along the campaign trail. Three of those four won delegates in Wyoming, where 12 of the state’s 23 counties held their conventions to select delegates to the convention while 11 alternates were selected from the other counties during their respective conventions. One county received both a delegate and alternate for having the best voter support of Wyoming U.S. House member Barbara Cubin. Two more delegates will be selected for the national gathering at their GOP state convention in May.

When the county conventions came to a close, 8 of the 12 delegates were pledged to Mitt Romney, while Fred Thompson ended up with three and Duncan Hunter one. In an ironic twist, Hunter has been held out of the two New Hampshire debates this weekend despite now being third in the delegate total. (Ron Paul has also been shut out of those debates.) Oops, I was thinking Paul wasn’t in them but indeed he is. Alan Keyes was the other one shut out tonight.

So the first actual delegates come from the smallest state population-wise in the union. Far away from the hype of New Hampshire, thoughtful Republicans got together to pick their party’s standard-bearer and if you ask me, one county got it right.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

A candidate for least surprising 1st District endorsement

This week, to no one’s surprise, 1st District hopeful Frank Kratovil picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association Fund for Children and Public Education and its subordinate organization in Maryland. It was the second union endorsement the Democrat obtained as the Ironworkers Union selected him back in November for their approval.

While there have been a number of endorsements for most of the players in the race, the biggest advantage in the ones Frank Kratovil has secured is obtaining a lot of boots for the ground game. Sure, the additional money in his coffers coerced from union member dues is going to help his campaign but what will be more important next fall will be the volunteers that come from these groups.

Last year, I renewed a tradition that I had participated in for several years about the turn of the millennium by working a polling place for District 38B candidate Bonnie Luna. (Somewhere she has a picture of her and I out in the rain that poured on the November 2006 election.) Not surprisingly, I was joined by a bunch of Democrats, mostly teachers that were there to push for Martin O’Malley, Norm Conway, and the rest of their favored team.

The same held true when I worked polls back in Ohio – whereas I took a vacation day, UAW members automatically had the day off so they could come out in force with their voter guides. And while the union influence is nowhere near as strong in this part of Maryland, more urban parts of the First District could see a push of unionistas doing their part to get more Democrats like Frank Kratovil elected.

One problem with having such a divisive race in the First District is the hurt feelings that will occur when one wins. Truth be told, I wouldn’t be nearly as jazzed to help Wayne Gilchrest than I would Andy Harris or maybe E.J. Pipkin, but we’ll have a Presidential race and at least two ballot issues (early voting and slots) that need volunteers for the election as well. Generally, Democrats have no such problem because of the ready-made volunteer pool of the unions and that’s what makes these Kratovil endorsements so important to counter.

It’s something for the conservative grassroots to keep in mind because we’re sure to be outvolunteered in any local race unless everyone does their part to help get Republicans elected along with defeating the early voting and slots referenda. You know the Democrats will be out in full force for those two issues.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

Iowa reax and my reax to it

A bunch of candidates placed their spin on results last night between press releases and e-mails that I received. Of course, I have something to say as well.

I’ll start with Mitt Romney, who had to be in a bit of shock.

With the announcement of today’s results, Governor Romney made the following remarks to supporters, volunteers and Americans across the country:

You know, just as Dan Jansen pointed out, you win the silver in one event, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to come back and win the gold in the final event and that we’re going to do.

This thousand plus group of people here, and my whole family here, Ann and I, we have come a long way this last year. You think about where we started – an unknown Governor from the bluest state in America comes to Iowa running against, well at that time three household names – Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Fred Thompson – and somehow tonight we beat all of them. We’ve just got to make sure we keep that up state after state after state.

(snip)

You’re going to see change in Washington, because America recognizes that we’re not going to change the nation and have a bright future if we just send the same old people back to Washington just different chairs. That’s not going to work. We need new faces in Washington, and I intend to be one of them.

What beat Mitt in Iowa were evangelicals and others who hadn’t been part of the political process before. It’s a situation akin to that we have in Maryland, where many in the party establishment are Romney supporters, but grassroots split in several directions. That and the fact Romney has money to burn explained things like the large box of Romney items I received when I was seeking items for our Wicomico County Republican Straw Poll. But as happened here, money didn’t translate into votes.

Further, the relentlessly negative advertising Romney used in Iowa backfired. Are you listening, Andy Harris?

How about Bill Richardson on the Democrat side:

“We made it to the final four,” Richardson said. “My staff and volunteers worked their hearts out to get us here. Now we are going to take the fight to New Hampshire.”

Richardson received 7% of the vote in entrance polls. After watching the results at a rally in Des Moines, he boarded a plane for New Hampshire.

Bill, you had 2% of the final vote because you couldn’t make a 15% viability standard in almost every precinct. You may have made the final four but it’s akin to an NFL final four featuring New England, Dallas, Indianapolis, and you as the Miami Dolphins. Just keep running for veep.

Fred Thompson noted:

“Were going to have a ticket to the next dance… The fight goes on, my friends.”

You have a ticket to every dance that’s left assuming you’re on the ballot. But finishing that low in Iowa isn’t going to help you money-wise. The amount of fight that remains depends on how split up the field is with victories, because if Huckabee is strong in the next two or three primaries you’re toast moneywise.

Speaking of Huckabee, he noted:

When people ask you tonight and tomorrow why you think we won, please tell them because we believed in some things and we stand by those things, and we do so together.

The issue is whether those things you believe in are going to energize the conservative base or not. There’s a lot to like about Mike, but I’m troubled by the feeling that he’s closest to President Bush in terms of governing and he (like Bush) won’t be strong enough to escape the siren song of Beltway moderates and would continue President Bush’s “new tone”.

Rudy Giuliani’s campaign put out this statement:

“We congratulate Mike Huckabee on a hard-fought victory in Iowa. This race is wide open and we will continue to run a national primary campaign designed to win the number of delegates necessary to become the Republican nominee. Rudy is the only Republican candidate who can not only win the primary and general elections, but will turn purple states red.”

If he’s trounced in Florida, which is supposedly his “firewall” and one of those so-called “purple” states, it’s over for him. He may have a significant number of delegates but all that may lead to is a brokered convention. Of course, that could be fun to watch!

It was a rough night for Hillary too. Her campaign had this to say:

Congratulations to Senator Obama and his campaign on their victory tonight. It’s been a hard fought race here in Iowa for the last year and all eyes now turn to New Hampshire.

Hillary is going to continue making the case that in these serious times when America faces big challenges, it will take a leader with the strength and experience to deliver real change.

This race begins tonight and ends when Democrats throughout America have their say. Our campaign was built for a marathon and we have the resources to run a national race in the weeks ahead.

But so does Obama, and he beat you and your “invincibility” by nine points. When only 30% of the voters swallow your “change” message given by one of the ulitmate agents for the status quo, what do you switch to next for a message? This also may peel off some of the black support for Hillary unless she quietly goes behind the scenes through her minions and plants the seed in the black community that Barack Obama’s an Uncle Tom because he won in a lily-white state like Iowa.

Later she noted:

“We’ve got more work to do.” That was my first reaction as I saw last night’s election results come in.

No, something tells me your first reaction involved several usages of the f-word.

John Edwards on being number two and trying harder:

It was a strong night for us – we finished second in Iowa, beating out the Clinton machine. Change won tonight – the status quo lost.

But now the fight is on – and they’re going to come after us, trying to drown out our message of change with their hundreds of millions of dollars.

I sat there and listened to his “soup line America” speech that he gave. Keep doing the class envy stuff, we who really make America work will watch your campaign crash and burn again like your last two did. You had to point out their hundreds of millions of dollars because you don’t have nearly that in the bank.

And then we have the two who bid farewell to the race. Chris Dodd had this to say:

I count the past year of campaigning for the presidency as one of the most rewarding in a career of public service.

Unfortunately, I am withdrawing from that campaign tonight.

But there is no reason to hang our heads this evening — only the opportunity to look towards a continuation of the work we started last January: ending the Iraq War, restoring the Constitution, and putting a Democrat in the White House.

(snip)

We made a real difference in shaping the debate, and we’ll continue to do so in the coming days, weeks and years.

Now Chris can get back to being an obstructionist Democrat in the Senate, instead of an obstructionist person on the Presidential ballot. It’ll be interesting to see who he throws his support behind and how that affects his relationships within the Senate. 

The same goes for Joe Biden:

“I am not going away.  I’m returning to the Senate as the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and will continue to ensure that we protect the nation’s security and show our country that Democrats know how to keep America safe, keep our commitment to our troops and restore our country’s respect in the world.”

Bad news for both the 1% of the voters who liked him nationally and for the state of Delaware, who probably will still vote for him since I believe now he can run for Senate again.

Now most candidates move on to New Hampshire, but tomorrow delegates will be picked in Wyoming’s caucus. Since it’s the least-populated state of the union and solely a GOP event, obviously the mainstream media’s ignoring it. But I’ll check on it Sunday just to see who wins and give Dick Cheney’s home state a little love.