Hunter getting into the hunt?

With it being Labor Day weekend this probably escaped notice. But monoblogue-endorsed Presidential candidate Duncan Hunter handily won the Townhall.com Texas Republican Straw Poll with 41% of the vote. Fred Thompson was a distant second. Texas Congressman Ron Paul was what had to be a disappointing third, but that sparked some controversy that you’ll see in the comments to the Townhall.com piece I link to.

So how did a guy who’s polling nationally in the low single digits win? Because he went there to campaign and he sold people on his message, that’s how. In the post-poll analysis, Townhall’s Matt Lewis wrote:

Duncan Hunter is obviously a big winner here.  He deserved to win because he showed up — and really worked it.  He shook hands with hundreds of folks, and signed lots of autographs (mostly on tee-shirts).  I can’t help but believe many of the votes Hunter got were due to his merely showing up and campaigning hard.  The question is:  Would these votes have also propelled Mike Huckabee to a victory here?  We won’t know if this was a huge missed opportunity for Huckabee to keep his momentum going.  Hunter took advantage, and for that, I give him kudos. (Emphasis in orginal.)

For the Townhall.com Texas Straw Poll, those allowed to vote were people eligible to be delegates to their state GOP convention. Here in Maryland I guess that would be akin to Central Committee members who attend and vote at our semi-annual state conventions.

This brings up a sidebar with local interest. I know we’re certainly not the state of Texas, but could some lower-tier candidate make a bid to win our upcoming (on September 24th) Wicomico County Republican Straw Poll by showing up? It’s not like they won’t be in Maryland anyway given the proximity of both our chosen date and location to the Morgan State University debate in Baltimore. I’ve sent out an invite to each campaign, and no one has given me a flat no…

Unfortunately, so far almost everyone in the GOP field has a flaw that may affect his electability with some faction of the Republican Party, let alone the general public. Rudy Giuliani is perceived as too liberal on social issues for the Bible Belt wing of the GOP, while Mitt Romney has to answer constant questions about his own religion. John McCain lost front-runner status by being wrong on immigration. Mike Huckabee is cast as a “big-government conservative” in the Bush mold, Ron Paul is wrong on the Long War, and from many accounts Fred Thompson has been too coy about getting in and is less than impressive on the campaign stump. The rest are just seen as being too far down in the polls to make a difference, despite their qualifications.

Sometimes though it just takes one event to create momentum, which is why I’m getting the word out a little more about a Hunter win. To me he’s proven to be the best all-around candidate and I think he deserves your support too.

WCRC Press Release – August 25, 2007

I wrote this on the club’s behalf and forwarded it to the mainstream media. Now it’s the blogosphere’s turn. For this version I deleted certain contact info, the e-mail is fine.

Starting August 27, the Wicomico County Republican Club meetings this fall are the place to be to find out the inside scoop on state and national politics from those who are there or seeking a place for themselves at the political table. You’ll also have a chance to speak out on both the upcoming Presidential and First District Congressional primary elections.

Our August 27 meeting will feature the incumbent First District Congressman Wayne Gilchrest as speaker. Wayne is sure to cover what he feels are his accomplishments in his most recent term and explain his position on the War on Terror, a stance that has sometimes put him at odds with Republican leadership in Congress as well as President Bush.

September 24 brings the club and other interested GOP observers an opportunity to have their say on the candidates vying for both President and Congress, as the club will host its first-ever Wicomico County Republican Straw Poll. Like its counterpart in Ames, Iowa, this will also be a fundraiser for the club as voters will have the chance to put their money behind their chosen candidates and buy additional votes. Speakers will represent each of the Presidential and Congressional hopefuls, giving a short presentation on the merits of their favorite sons before the task turns to selecting our county’s pre-primary choices for the two offices.

The October 22 gathering will reflect on the upcoming General Assembly Special Session as we’ve scheduled District 37B Delegate Jeannie Haddaway to address our club. It promises to be an informative look at what the Democrat majority in Maryland plans to do to our wallets from a member of the loyal opposition.

Wrapping up the fall season will be a visit from another Congressional hopeful, Dr. Andy Harris. Harris announced his bid to replace Wayne Gilchrest earlier this summer and the November 27meeting will be his chance to sell himself to the most active Republicans in Wicomico County – a volunteer and financial base he’ll need if he’s to unseat the incumbent. Since Harris also serves as a State Senator, he may also provide insight on the FY08 budget machinations of the majority Democrats in Maryland.

All of these Monday evening meetings will take place at the Chamber of Commerce Building, 144 E. Main Street in Salisbury. Social hour in all cases begins at 7 p.m. and meeting is gaveled to order at 7:30.

If you have further questions, our club’s press contact is the Second Vice President, Michael Swartz. His e-mail is ttownjotes@yahoo.com.

Slim pickings at best

A post today at Delmarva Dealings reminded me of something I meant to write about over the weekend. While I did a long series of posts on picking my favorite GOP Presidential candidate, the sad fact was that none of them were remotely close to perfect. Certainly all of the candidates had their high points, but there was also at least one strike against them. There’s at least one thing I don’t care for with each.

  • John McCain did well on the Long War but is completely wrong when it comes to immigration.
  • I strongly disagreed with Sam Brownback‘s energy stance and he flip-flopped on the immigration bill vote, voting aye before switching at the last minute to a no vote.
  • Fred Thompson has a lot of promise, but has yet to publicize his positions on a number of issues. I’ve also read where he’s not great on the campaign stump.
  • For the most part, I love Ron Paul‘s ideas about shrinking the size and scope of government but cannot abide his stance on the Long War.
  • The same went for Tom Tancredo, although he’s almost too hardline on immigration and has advocated for a pullout date in Iraq.
  • Mitt Romney also seemed to me as fairly weak on a number of issues, and I’m certainly not sold on his health insurance idea that was passed in Massachusetts. But in his favor is the amount of money and organization he already has and his having a large core of experience in the private sector.

And then you have the three who topped my field – but I still see issues with them as well.

  • Mike Huckabee, as noted in the YouTube video cited on Delmarva Dealings, does have a disturbing tendency to be a big-government “conservative” in the mold of President Bush.
  • Rudy Giuliani topped my field in supporting “victory” in the Long War and said the right things to me regarding the role of government. But would social conservatives vote for Rudy with his known liberalism on social issues like gay marriage and abortion? They may feel like they have no choices in ’08 and sit out.
  • And my endorsee, Duncan Hunter, was very strong on a number of issues. He topped all 10 (at the time) candidates on eminent domain, trade and job creation, and the Long War (tied with Rudy) plus was a close second on education. And he had a number of intangible issues I liked his stand on. But he polls practically zero. If he’s not elected President, I think he’d be an outstanding choice for Secretary of Defense with his grasp of those issues.

It seems to me, based on the limited exposure we have to the GOP race here in Maryland, that the best organization by far is Mitt Romney’s, but Rudy Giuliani also has some powerful allies in the hierarchy of the Maryland GOP. Again, it makes me ask the question whether the base of the GOP is that excited about a Giuliani-Romney race. We know that John McCain had the early momentum but lost it on the immigration fight and his campaign has fallen to second-tier status because of it.

Quite unfortunately, the folks on the right side of the GOP have a number of choices splitting their admiration. While Fred Thompson is becoming less and less of the great unknown, we still have Newt Gingrich sitting on the sideline debating whether to enter and shake things up. So our options aren’t really clear-cut yet.

In some ways our Congressional race has evolved the same way as there’s now two choices to appeal to conservative voters (not to mention the two Democrats who seem to be running toward the right-center on many issues). It’s starting to look like a 1992 Presidential election scenario, where Bill Clinton won with 43% of the vote because Ross Perot siphoned off 19% and denied George H.W. Bush a second term. Wayne Gilchrest may make it through the Republican primary with similar numbers.

I guess what me and a lot of GOP voters are starving for is leadership in the mold of Reagan. There’s no one out there who’s really taking it to the Democrats – instead a lot of the GOP candidates are doing the Democrats’ work for them by infighting and exposing what they consider hypocrisy on some issues. It’s especially true with the frontrunners Romney and Giuliani being attacked by the more socially conservative candidates. We’re all waiting for someone to call out the Democrats on a regular basis – saying in effect to hell with working with them, they are going to work with me and if they don’t I’ll use my bully pulpit to get them out of Congress.

That’s the sort of leadership I’m thirsting for – the uncompromising, unflinching kind. I do see hints of it in Duncan Hunter but not in the frontrunners. But as usual I see myself having to pick a compromise candidate and voting more against a Democrat than for a Republican. It’s happened 3 elections in a row and there’s nothing I see at the moment to promise me the string won’t continue to four.

A day at the fair

Ok, technically it’s not a “fair”, it’s the Wicomico Home and Farm Show. But I was there today to work at the Wicomico County GOP’s table so I bummed around for awhile beforehand.

They had a car show there, so I had to get lots of pictures in.

Yes, I like classic cars. It wasn’t the largest show I’d seen, but there were some cars there that I hadn’t recalled seeing at the other car shows and festivals I frequent. They had a nice red 1964 Ford Galaxie 500 there. It’s as old as I am but in much better shape!

Delmarva's version of the Lone Ranger and his horse Silver.

I don’t recall this act from last year – of course last year I was a part of the entertainment and worked the GOP table too so I didn’t wander as much. However, he had a nice little show and would give away postcards and such for free, which I thought was a nice touch. It was fun for the kids and that was what counted. Hey, there’s many worse role models out there than the Lone Ranger.

A case where I just missed the optimum moment - but you get the idea.

The other interesting feature I saw was the jousting. My fellow MBA member Stephanie will be proud to know that I remember jousting is Maryland’s state sport. Seriously. But unlike the movie “A Knight’s Tale” there weren’t broken lances or riders knocked off the horses. These guys were pretty easy on each other.

And of course I had good food and a little ice cream too. But I actually came there to work a few hours at our Wicomico GOP table.

This year's version of our fair booth.

If you followed the link earlier, you’d notice that last year the table was brimming with items and candidates were crawling out of the woodwork to be seen. This year was much more subdued.

This is the honest truth. The only candidate whose campaign actually delivered items when I first worked the table Thursday night was Mitt Romney. I personally brought items for John McCain and Rudy Giuliani (plus some other supplemental Romney items) to place at the table, and apparently both the Andy Harris and Wayne Gilchrest camps brought things on Friday. The Harris sign was mine too, I dropped it off Friday morning. But Gilchrest had signs and some literature (a summary of stuff I’ve gotten in my e-mail) while Harris had his own campaign literature and bumper stickers. I’m told Andy was there yesterday as well. And this morning the young man working before me ended up bringing some info about Presidential hopeful Ron Paul.

But the thing that actually went over best at our table was the “Don’t Blame Me – I Voted For Ehrlich” bumper stickers. Most people ignored us but there were a few who needed voter registration cards or picked up something for a Presidential candidate. My small supply of Giuliani stuff was practically gone and some people took Romney items as well. (Meanwhile, no one took any McCain items.)

If I were to gauge the mood of the electorate at the moment, it’s hopeful but wary. I’m not sure that people really care yet, which obviously is different from last year when that primary campaign was rapidly drawing to a close then. Regardless I think having a presence at the event makes us look a little better and more active, as opposed to the Democrats who have skipped the event the last two years. And this gave us an opportunity to push our other upcoming events that make the Wicomico County Republican Club its money.

So we’ll see if the Democrats show up next year or write off Wicomico County.

I go away for a week and all hell breaks loose…

Back to live blogging again; well sort of. It’s actually Thursday afternoon as I start this for posting later this evening and I know my Shorebird of the Week post comes up tonight. So I don’t give him short shrift, check him out here and then come back to read this!

It was soooooo boring for the last 2-3 weeks before I took my break so I guess they were waiting for me to take a few days off to have all of these events happen just so I had time to digest them and make some sort of reasoned commentary. There were seven events over the last week that I think are worth commenting on and alluding to. I’m going to go more or less in chronological order.

  • “Robinson on the Radio” gets cancelled.

I know there were a few who didn’t think I came across well on the radio but geez, I feel like Typhoid Michael now. I’m a guest and ONE WEEK later the show’s axed. I wore the shirt I got one time!

Oddly enough, I missed the actual announcement since he had a guest on that, frankly, I had no interest in listening to. So I turned off the radio that Thursday about 3:10. Once I saw the blurb on the internet I made the effort to listen to his final show last Friday but my parents arrived about 3:15 or so – thus I missed the sign off.

What the situation has begat is a continuation of the flame war between John Robinson and a certain local blogger where the blogger takes great pleasure in the little parody piece that WICO played on Monday at 3:00. Meanwhile, Robinson talks about going into the web news business. Now John, if you were complaining about losing a six-figure amount of business time because of the radio show, what makes you think that doing an internet news site (even for just local events) isn’t going to cost you plenty of time when time is money? Even if you have hired a reporter as you state, there’s still work involved. I do this as a hobby and don’t do a news site, but still spend several hours a week on doing my website. Just a word to the wise as a friend.

Regardless, the local blogging scene has become more contentious than its usual warlike state as a result.

  • Andy Harris makes spending and pork an issue.

I got a press release while I was away detailing how the Club For Growth has endorsed Andy Harris over the incumbent Wayne Gilchrest. Apparently, the Gilchrest camp responded in kind (I’ve not received their reply) so Chris Meekins of the Harris campaign fired back a reply this morning, which I excerpt from here:

As I read Congressman Gilchrest’s campaign statement in response to our comments on his fiscal spending record, I felt the need to clarify and reinforce some of the issues the statement addressed.

Over the course of the next weeks and months, our campaign will continue to provide objective information, including the roll call vote number, so that you can see for yourself how Gilchrest voted on ALL of the amendments offered by fiscally responsible Republicans to cut spending growth – the vast majority of which Gilchrest voted AGAINST. We applaud him for voting for two amendments to cut spending, but two out of more than a dozen is not something one should be touting as a clear record of fiscal restraint.

Also, we will discuss how, in the last month alone, Gilchrest voted for over $15 billion dollars in tax increases. And we thought the $1.5 billion in tax increases the Democrats in Maryland are proposing was a lot!

Our campaign was very surprised to see the incumbent actually vigorously defend earmarks (otherwise known as “pork”). For those who may not be aware the Office of Management and Budget defines an “earmark” as: “funds provided by the Congress for projects or programs where the congressional direction (in bill or report language) circumvents the merit-based or competitive allocation process, or specifies the location or recipient, or otherwise curtails the ability of the Executive Branch to properly manage funds.”

Members of Congress insert earmarks into much larger spending bills hoping they will be overlooked or lost in the thousands of pages. Earmarks don’t consider which company can do the best job and they take competition on price and quality completely out of the government procurement process. Basic free-market economics teach you that non-competitive contracts by the government will always increase the cost to you the taxpayer and may frequently lower the quality of the work done.

According to the Office of Management and Budget’s website, the Fiscal Year 2008 appropriation bills in the House contain over 3814 earmarks totaling $2.4 billion.

(snip)

Think about this situation. The owner of a company raises funds for a congressman’s reelection and a congressman in turn, repays him by putting an earmark for that company for millions of dollars for a noncompetitive contract into a bill. By Congress continuing to vote for earmarks, the opportunity is present for corruption to occur. But that’s the way business is done in Washington these days, it appears.

Andy Harris will continue to oppose earmarks. Andy beleives the people of the first congressional district do not want their tax dollars to reward companies who generously donate to the Democratic Party. Andy believes cleaning up the earmark process is the first step in eliminating corruption in Congress. Harris opposes out of control wasteful government spending – which is why as a state senator, he voted against six of the last nine state budgets.

Wayne Gilchrest spoke out strongly against the Washington establishment when he was first elected to office in 1990 – now he has become a part of it. We sent Wayne to change Washington – but Washington has instead, over the years, changed Wayne.

I’ll be brutally honest here. On an editorial level, it should be known that I support Andy Harris. In the interest of voter education though, I have and will place items on monoblogue from any of the five announced candidates – whether they be GOP or Democrat – because I believe that a voter should be as well-informed as possible.

The one fear I have in this race is that the conservative supporters will split and leave Gilchrest as the winner with a plurality of the vote (think Bill Clinton in 1992.) Having said that, though, later this fall I will prove that even though Gilchrest is much farther left than I like he’ll still be preferable to a Democrat in the seat.

  • Ames Straw Poll results in first GOP casualty.

And I correctly predicted who it would be. It was pretty much speculated (even by his opponents) that Mitt Romney would win the Straw Poll, so the real race was for second. That position was held by one of my top choices, Mike Huckabee. Unfortunately, my endorsed candidate, Rep. Duncan Hunter, finished near the bottom in Ames. Over the weekend, I want to delve back into this race because it’s sort of sad that no candidate is really a “perfect” candidate for me – someplace I had to make some compromises.

But maybe Hunter will do better in the upcoming Wicomico County Straw Poll on September 24. Since we notified our WCRC members about it first, I’ll spread the word here as well.

  • The Maryland GOP is broke.

At least it is if you believe the Baltimore Sun article from Saturday. That tends to happen when a party has little to no power base in a state. If this were in a deep red state like Idaho, I’m sure we’d find the Idaho Democrat party runs on a shoestring budget as well.

But a lot of the article talks about the infighting between moderates and conservatives in the party, particularly in Anne Arundel County. (Brian Griffiths and redstate.org is on that like a blanket.)

I ran for my post because of two things I believe in: one, that the Republican Party if it follows principle is the most effective tool for bringing about change in our government to lessen its power over the common citizen; and secondly, that the voters should have the final say in who best represents the Republican Party at the general election ballot box. While I may not agree with their primary choice, the voters are the ones who should make that decision, not a state party annointing a candidate and trying to throw out all would-be challengers. (Refer to Ohio Republican Party 1998 and 2006 for examples.)

So at the moment we have infighting because there is a group who believes the incumbent should be supported at all costs vs. a group I align with that thinks the people should decide whether the incumbents are worthy of another term. Obviously when it comes to the First Congressional District I don’t. But I’m certain we will come together in time for 2008 because we have bigger challenges to face, most likely she’s named Hillary Clinton and he’s named Frank Kratovil, and both are backed in Maryland by the tax-raiser Martin O’Malley.

  • Karl Rove leaves his post.

Well, now who’s the liberals going to blame when they don’t get their way? The guy is a Deputy Chief of Staff, yet they get all worked up about him. I hope Karl enjoys his family and his retirement, although having his first post-announcement interview on Rush Limbaugh’s radio show was a nice little thumb in the MSM’s eye as well.

By the way, would Rove not be a kick-ass Lincoln Day speaker next year? Hell, put him at the Red, White, and Blue Dinner and the Maryland GOP will be out of debt in no time!

  • monoblogue server issues.

Yes, I was frustrated too. As far as my server company goes, there’s never a good time to have outages but within the last three months of your server term is REALLY bad timing. I can eat a few bucks if I can be assured I’ll have more reliable service that’s not out anywhere from 2 to 14 hours at a stretch and a local person to bitch at when it does. How I moved up in the BNN Influence Rankings from #9 to #8 with the artificially lower readership is beyond me.

  • West Salisbury Little League.

I’m going to end on a positive note. Right now our fair city, for all its faults that are detailed on several other websites that I do and don’t link to, has within it one of the 16 best Little League teams in the world. Even if they don’t get to the finals these kids have nothing to hang their heads about, but I’m hoping in a week or so we’ll be glued to our TV’s watching them take on a team from some distant shore for the LLWS title.

And for the really positive note – I missed sitting here and writing monoblogue on a daily basis but the time off was worth it when I get to spend time with people like this. Yes, that’s my kid. The picture’s too big to use here so I just linked to it.

Who will I support? – the intangibles and final decision

“It’s time to clean house. Clean out the privileges and perks. Clean out the arrogance and the big egos. Clean out the scandals, the corner-cutting and the foot-dragging. What kind of job do you think they’ve done during all those years they’ve been running the Congress?… Now, just imagine what they would do if they controlled the executive branch, too!… But now we have arrived, as we always do, at the moment of truth—the serious business of selecting a president. Now is the time for choosing.” – Ronald Reagan

As I did my research on this subject, I found that the ten major GOP candidates didn’t just speak to my pet issues – in fact, none spoke to all of them and the best ones only spoke to 8 of my 12. But they do have their own set of items they hold dear and many of these are worth looking into as I make a decision.

So I decided to do this part where a candidate stance on a particular issue could gain them an extra point (or, by the same token, have a point deducted.) Because the totals turned out quite close, this takes on additional importance.

I also found out in researching Duncan Hunter that my original read on his view of free trade and job creation was completely off the mark. I interpreted his brief statement as being anti-free trade but after I found this video I realized he wanted to completely renegotiate our trade pacts to make them more beneficial to our interests, plus as an added bonus give tax breaks to manufacturers. So, instead of being docked one point I’m going to give him 9 points, which places him in second with 78 points.

I’ll go through each GOP candidate in turn, one final time.

Sam Brownback:

Add points for: being for marriage being between one man and one woman, support of Israel, judicial philosophy, government noninterference in religious beliefs, being pro-life.

Subtract points for: supporting intrusive broadcasting laws, “New Homestead Act”, farm subsidies and biofuels.

Net change: add 2 points.

Rudy Giuliani:

Add points for: judicial philosophy.

Subtract points for: moderately pro-choice, for domestic partnerships.

Net change: subtract 1 point.

Mike Huckabee:

Add points for: government noninterference in religious beliefs, support of Israel.

Subtract points for: farm subsidies and biofuels, support of a Constitutional marriage amendment.

Net change: none.

Duncan Hunter:

Add points for: government noninterference in religious beliefs, judicial philosophy, condemning “hate crime” legislation, defunding the National Endowment of the Arts, belief in “peace through strength”, support of Israel, rejection of treaties that subjugate our sovereignty, philosophy on “handouts”.

Subtract points for: support of a Constitutional amendment prohibiting abortion, support of a Constitutional marriage amendment, support of federal involvement in parental rights, supporting intrusive broadcasting laws.

Net change: add four points. 

John McCain:

Add points for: none.

Subtract points for: calling for action on global warming.

Net change: subtract one point.

Ron Paul:

Add points for: being pro-life, stance on personal privacy, health freedom.

Subtract points for: none.

Net change: add three points.

Mitt Romney:

Add points for: being pro-life.

Subtract points for: support of a Constitutional marriage amendment, investment in rightfully private-sector research.

Net change: subtract one point.

Tom Tancredo:

Add points for: being pro-life, judicial philosophy, stance on political correctness.

Subtract points for: farm subsidies, support of a Constitutional marriage amendment.

Net change: add one point.

Fred Thompson:

Add points for: none.

Subtract points for: none.

Net change: none.

Tommy Thompson:

Add points for: being pro-life, judicial philosophy, being for marriage being between one man and one woman.

Subtract points for: none.

Net change: add three points.

Here’s the final standings. Drum roll please…

  1. Duncan Hunter, 82 points
  2. Rudy Giuliani, 79 points
  3. Mike Huckabee, 76 points
  4. Mitt Romney, 45 points
  5. Tom Tancredo, 41.5 points
  6. Fred Thompson, 37 points
  7. Ron Paul, 34.5 points
  8. Tommy Thompson, 24.5 points
  9. Sam Brownback, 20.5 points
  10. John McCain, 18 points

So at this time I endorse Rep. Duncan Hunter to be your next President of the United States, based on the careful study I’ve done of the issues I feel affect our nation.

I also strongly recommend for your consideration Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee.

These three candidates have set themselves apart from the field and proven themselves worthy of the task of leading our nation.

I must say though that the jury is certainly out on Fred Thompson based on his strong showing on a few issues and as his campaign evolves he may move into this upper tier. Also possibly meriting consideration should he join the race is Newt Gingrich. I do have a few reservations about Newt; having read Winning the Future I’m concerned that he wants to expand federal power more than I’d like. But I have admired his futuristic thinking and that would be an asset for anyone seeking to be our next leader.

This has been a ton of writing and hours spent in front of my computer. But one purpose of monoblogue is to inform the voters, and I feel having taken the time to do the reading on issues where I laid out arguments to buttress my point of view as being correct, logical, and good for our nation both in the present and future, it’s led me to the candidates that I feel would do the best job in leading our nation.

I must caution that all of this goes to naught if we do not elect a Congress that’s supportive of the philosophies that guide my top choices. If Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi continue to be the leaders in Congress, at best we can hope for gridlock and paralysis; at worst, if I’ve miscalculated the leadership qualities of my top three, our nation would slide further into a morass of additional federal interference in our lives and pocketbooks.

Later this year, I’m going to do this same exercise with our Congressional candidates. Although I’ve already come out on record as supporting Andy Harris for the Congressional seat held by Wayne Gilchrest, by doing the twelve steps again it will illustrate the differences even between Gilchrest and the two leading Democrats for the seat. I’m thinking this will be done later in the fall.

So for now, I’m taking a break from my 50 year plan and its effects as an online subject. But I’m going to slowly look into the print version and begin some of the research I think is necessary to continue to build up my arguments. There will still be plenty of political news to go around and now it’s fairly apparent what my viewpoint on it will be.

I appreciate your continued readership and patience as I slowly dragged out this subject. But I think all of us should at some point do a similar amount of research on those people who would deign to lead us, whether locally, statewide, or on the highest federal levels.

Also, since I’m referring back to this post for later ones, here are the twelve previous parts as I dealt with (in ascending order):

  1. eminent domain/property rights;
  2. Second Amendment;
  3. election reform;
  4. trade and job creation;
  5. education;
  6. veterans affairs;
  7. energy independence;
  8. entitlements;
  9. taxation;
  10. role of government;
  11. border security and immigration, and;
  12. the Long War.

Who will I support? – part twelve

At last, we come to the finish line. Well, for Democrats it is…for the GOP there’s still a few intangibles I want to get through because no candidate has dominated and I want to make sure I get through everything as I make this decision. That will wrap up the point totals tomorrow.

Today we get to my number one topic, which is the Long War – otherwise known as the War on Terror.

As you may know, my philosophy is one of achieving victory, which I define as when the threat from al-Qaeda and other radical Islamic fundamentalist entities is subdued militarily to a point where they are no longer a significant threat to our security and safety here in America. At that point, I expect the restrictions placed temporarily on our civil liberties (such as the PATRIOT Act) to be lifted. And if we withdraw from Iraq now, we cannot achieve that objective unless the fight is brought over here because at this point the military fronts are Iraq and Afghanistan.

As always, the GOP goes first in what they have to say about our fight.

Sam Brownback:

After my recent trip to Iraq, I am even more convinced that the situation there is precarious, but hopeful. I see hope in the Iraqi people. I believe this hope will be the foundation of a new Iraqi society. Much remains to be done, and I think we need a plan to turn this country over to its citizens. I will continue to work with the leaders in our country, as well as leaders in Iraq, to find a solution that protects the future of Iraq, and the pride and dignity of its citizens.

Rudy Giuliani:

Rudy Giuliani believes winning the war on terror is the great responsibility of our generation. America cannot afford to go back to the days of playing defense, with inconsistent responses to terrorist attacks, because weakness only encourages aggression. Americans want peace. We’re at war not because we want to be, but because the terrorists declared war on us – well before the attacks of September 11th. Rudy understands that freedom is going to win this war of ideas. America will win the war on terror.

To watch Rudy’s commitment to staying on offense against terror, please click here.

Like all Americans, Rudy Giuliani prays for the success of our troops in Iraq and their safe return home. But he believes setting an artificial timetable for withdrawal from Iraq now would be a terrible mistake, because it would only embolden our enemies. Iraq is only one front in the larger war on terror, and failure there would lead to a broader and bloodier regional conflict in the near future. Building an accountable Iraq will assist in reducing the threat of terrorism.

To watch Rudy’s comments on the War in Iraq, please click here.

Mike Huckabee also splits his views on Iraq and the War on Terror.

Duncan Hunter makes his arguments here.

Obviously John McCain, as a Vietnam veteran and POW, has strong feelings about this war.

Ron Paul explains his views here. I also got an e-mail recently where he notes in part:

As I told the crowd, with our non-interventionist foreign policy, there would be 3,600 young Americans still alive, and 25,000 more not badly wounded.  It got the biggest response of the evening.

Then a 14-year-old girl told me she was helping the campaign so her daddy, a soldier, would not have to go to Iraq.  I told her there are many thousands of us working to that exact end, to keep him and all the others safe.  What an outrage that we are accused of not supporting the troops. What a scam when the warmongers claim to be pro-soldier.

Lots of military people turned out to be aware that our campaign got more donations from soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines than any other. Funny, that made a big impression in Congress too.  Many of my colleagues were amazed and encouraged that you can be against this unconstitutional and disastrous war, and get military support.

I like Mitt Romney‘s website link, it’s called defeating the jihadists.

Tom Tancredo points out his views here and also says:

America’s noble sacrifice has purchased Iraqis a precious opportunity for democratic change; it is now up to them to ensure success. Setting the President’s November benchmark for shifting control as an actual timetable for disengagement will let regional powers and Iraqi factions cooperate to forge a new balance of power.

Homeland security plans which do not include enforcing our immigration laws and securing our borders are entirely inadequate. A CIS study of 94 terrorists prosecuted for their crimes in the U.S., found that nearly two thirds had committed immigration fraud. It is difficult then to justify the rigor, expense, and inconvenience of new safety measures at our airports and harbors, while leaving the door open for terrorists to slip across our southern border undetected.

Similarly, Tommy Thompson has a link and a statement:

Governor Thompson believes the nation must recommit itself to rebuilding the American military because our armed forces must have the capacity to dominate any war or any conflict we must enter – all while having the capability to fight a multi-front war. Our military is simply stretched too thin to protect American interests overseas and at home in these dangerous times. At the same time, our foreign policy cannot be based solely on military might. We must reach out to the rest of the world, and a good place to start is with medical diplomacy. Governor Thompson’s initiative would take America’s great doctors and health professionals, along with our medicines and technology, to some of the most distraught places in the world, helping to comfort and nurse the poor to better health. By doing so, we can begin to heal some of the wounds with our global neighbors.

All right, now it’s time to look at the cut and run brigade, also know as the Democrat Party. I’ll let the reader go ahead and explore the particulars on their own; in this case I’m just going to tell you by what date the Democrats want troops out.

Joe Biden: except for a “residual force”, the end of 2007.

Hillary Clinton: “before the next president takes the oath of office.”

Chris Dodd: March 31, 2008.

John Edwards: “complete withdrawal…in 12 to 18 months.”

Mike Gravel: “home within 60 days.”

Dennis Kucinich would immediately cut off funding for the troops for an “orderly withdrawal.”

Barack Obama: March 31, 2008.

Bill Richardson: “withdraw ALL troops in six months.”

It’s almost like a perverse “name that tune” for the moonbats:

“I, candidate A, can withdraw the troops in 12 months.”

“But I, candidate B, can withdraw the troops in 60 days.”

It goes without saying that every Democrat would lose the points (this part is worth 27 points, the highest number.) I guess just for comparison’s sake to the GOP I’ll put up their final scores at the end of the post.

But more importantly for me and my vote, I have to rate the GOP contenders.

Sam Brownback does his best to neither offend the people on my side by fully embracing diplomacy or offend the “cut and run” types by advocating military victory. What he says does absolutely nothing for me, so I’m not giving him any points.

On the other hand, Rudy Giuliani is exactly right, and I think he understands the best among the GOP contenders because he’s dealt with terrorism on our shores firsthand. He will get all 27 points because “America will win the War on Terror.”

Mike Huckabee has some very good points and also wants victory; however, there’s one statement that bothers me to an extent. He notes, “President Bush declared that all other countries were either for us or they were for the terrorists. Such a black-and-white stance doesn’t work in the Arab and Muslim worlds, where there are more shades of gray than you’ll find at Sherwin-Williams.” Personally I thought President Bush was correct.

Overall, he has a good stance on the Long War though so I’ll give him 23 points, because of just that slight difference of opinion.

Duncan Hunter has an excellent understanding about what’s at stake and if you watch the video (about nine minutes long) you’ll notice that he thinks beyond the obvious enemies and considers other sources of possible aggression from without. He also notes that the Iraqi Army is gaining strength and would seek to use them as well. I would be very confident with him as Commander-in-Chief, so he gets 27 points.

There is only one thing I don’t care for about John McCain’s approach, where he notes, “The answer is for the international community to apply real pressure to Syria and Iran to change their behavior.” To me that implies the United Nations and they’re far from backing our efforts. McCain is correct in stating that we need to win the homefront. But would he be able to seize the bully pulpit in a Reaganesqe style? I’m giving McCain 23 points for that slight flaw, much like Huckabee.

I have a problem with Ron Paul. I understand his principle about “entangling ourselves in the affairs of other nations.” However, if we wish to spread freedom around the world as I feel we should, and protect our vital national interests, we need a global presence. While I realize life is not a game of Risk, if you play that board game in an entirely defensive mode you’re bound to lose.

The other thing that I have to mention is that, yes, we’ve lost 3,600 soldiers who volunteered to fight and die for our country. What would the toll be on our shores had we done nothing and stood by awaiting another attack?

Because he has held to his beliefs throughout (even if they’re incorrect) I’m not deducting all 27 points, but he’s going to take a 20 point penalty.

Mitt Romney just doesn’t seem to go as far as the others in seeking victory. He understands that we face a “sinister and broad-based extremist faction” with a “very 8th century view of the world” but I think he looks more to diplomacy and isn’t as sold on a military solution, despite wanting to increase military spending. His solutions just don’t come across to me as well as some of the others, so I’ll give him 18 points.

Oh, Tom Tancredo, you came so close to the finish line with victory in hand. But like a steeplechase rider whose horse falls “at the last”, you snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by wanting a timetable for Iraqi withdrawal. Even if you keep forces close by, that still gives a propaganda victory to our enemies and the will to keep fighting. I’m giving you the same docking I gave Ron Paul, 20 points off.

Tommy Thompson has some good points and some bad points. I suppose it’s true that we are in Iraq at the pleasure of their government, but I think the Iraqi people can sense that we’re not there as invaders but as protectors from the larger threat to their own safety that al-Qaeda brings with their Iranian sponsorship. I do agree we should build the military, but the “medical diplomacy” leaves me a bit cold. I’ll give him a lukewarm 10 points since he’s not saying to cut and run.

Ok, we’ve reached the end, almost. It’s close enough at the top that I have to look at intangibles to make my choice, and that will occur tomorrow. At the moment, here are the GOP standings:

  1. Rudy Giuliani, 80 points
  2. Mike Huckabee, 76 points
  3. Duncan Hunter, 68 points
  4. Mitt Romney, 46 points
  5. Tom Tancredo, 40.5 points
  6. Fred Thompson, 37 points
  7. Ron Paul, 31.5 points
  8. Tommy Thompson, 21.5 points
  9. John McCain, 19 points
  10. Sam Brownback, 18.5 points

Final standings for the Democrats. How low can they go?

  1. Mike Gravel, -42 points
  2. Joe Biden, -62.5 points
  3. Bill Richardson, -75.5 points
  4. John Edwards, -75.5 points
  5. Hillary Clinton, -82.5 points
  6. Chris Dodd, -84.5 points
  7. Barack Obama, -93.5 points
  8. Dennis Kucinich, -124.5 points

If you want an illustration of the difference between the two parties, it’s made clear right here. Tomorrow I look at the intangibles for the GOP and finally stop dragging this out. It will be time to throw my support behind somebody.

Who will I support? – part eleven

The end is in sight as I’ve hit my second-most important issue, border security and immigration. Yes, I’m a border hawk and I’ll be scoring the candidates accordingly.

I’m going to jump right into this installment with the GOP’s Sam Brownback. He actually has a pretty long description on his website, one I’ll cut and paste a bit as a summary.

Sam Brownback:

Border security is Senator Brownback’s top priority and has consistently voted to immediately secure the border. “One of the primary jobs of the United States government is to ensure the safety of the American people. In order to do so, we must secure our borders.”

“We will fail to stop illegal immigration until we prove that living and working here illegally is not an option.”

We must enable all law enforcement to identify and quickly remove criminal illegal aliens.

A secure, fraud-resistant ID must be the foundation of a robust worksite enforcement system that requires every new employee to be screened for valid work authorization.

Interior and worksite enforcement are essential for homeland security and national security.

As one of Rudy Giuliani‘s “12 Commitments”, he will “end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation.” But he doesn’t elaborate on this yet.

Mike Huckabee talks about the issue here.

Border fencing is Duncan Hunter‘s bag.

While John McCain isn’t thought of as a border hawk, he speaks his piece on his website.

Ron Paul also devotes a webpage to the subject, a rarity.

As issues become more important to me, Mitt Romney has become a regular presence on my posts. Immigration is no exception.

Tom Tancredo, a known border hawk, posts this and says:

Illegal aliens threaten our economy and undermine our culture. While our brave soldiers risk their lives to protect us overseas, our political elites lack the courage to defend us at home. I am 100% opposed to amnesty. As President, I will secure our borders so illegal aliens do not come, and I will eliminate benefits and job prospects so they do not stay.

Fred Thompson weighs in with commentary about the recent Hazelton immigration decision.

Making it a GOP clean sweep on the issue is Tommy Thompson:

Governor Thompson opposes amnesty and believes that America must enforce its immigration policies to the fullest extent of the law. People who are found to be in the country illegally should be returned to their home countries and should have to wait at the end of the line, behind people who are seeking to enter the country or become citizens legally.

Unfortunately, the Democrats only have 4 of the 8 candidates talking about this vital issue, even if they’re wrong.

John Edwards lumps this topic in with homeland security.

Mike Gravel:

Senator Gravel favors protecting our borders and monitoring the flow of illegal immigrants into our country. He also favors a guest worker program and setting up naturalization procedures that would fairly bring existing illegal immigrants into legal status.

Barack Obama makes his feelings known on border security and immigration too.

And as a governor of a border state (New Mexico) you can bet Bill Richardson knows the importance of the issue.

With 25 points at stake, we’ve reached the point where hitting a home run on the subject, one of my pet issues, will boost a candidate in my eyes while the wrong approach will doom him.

Sam Brownback talks tough, but he switched his cloture vote on the recent immigration bill, going from amnesty to no amnesty as he saw how the vote progressed. So is he sincere about the things he says here? I can’t give him any points regardless of his talk.

I’ll give Rudy 5 points for bringing up the subject with the right ideas, but without details that’s all I can give him. At least he didn’t switch votes.

Mike Huckabee has the right ideas about the border fence and opposing the late, unlamented immigration bill. But aside from those who commit crimes (aside from the very act of entering illegally) he does nothing with the millions of illegals already here or their employers. I’ll give him 11 points – not quite half since he addresses not quite half the issue from my standpoint.

Similarly to Huckabee, Duncan Hunter talks about the border fence to keep new illegals out but nothing about those here. So he gets 10 points.

John McCain has repeatedly voted the wrong way on the issue. If a person is already illegally here, why would they come out to get a “Z” visa? And if they did get one, all that means is they had four years to sit and wait for us to stop enforcing the laws as we’ve done for the last 20 years. I’m deducting 10 points from his score.

Ron Paul gets most of the issue right, with the exception of discouraging employers from hiring illegals. I’d like him to be a bit more specific about how he would physically secure our borders, but overall I think his plan is worth 19 points.

Mitt Romney supports an ID system for those who aren’t citizens, which I suppose I can live with. Of course, that also depends on the federal government actually keeping track of these when they can’t keep track of the green card and visa holders we have now. So that’s a problem, not to mention that anyone can claim to have a Social Security number thus not need the ID. With that and the vagueness about securing the borders, I can only give Mitt 5 points.

While Tom Tancredo has a reputation as an immigration hawk, the idea of cutting the number of legal immigrants bothers me, as legal immigrants are the ones who come here and assimilate into the culture – if not first generation, certainly by the second. He is correct about eliminating benefits so the illegals don’t stay, though. It’s sort of a mixed bag as he’s also nonspecific about methods of securing borders. I’m sort of disappointed that I can only give him 10 points – I was expecting more.

Fred Thompson gets 13 points just for his commentary about the Hazelton immigration decision and critique over Congress tying local and state government hands by preempting the local laws but not enforcing federal laws. It’s too bad he started so late in the game, I’m interested to see how his campaign builds.

Tommy Thompson works to the reverse of most of his cohorts, addressing illegals already here but not border security. He gets a few extra points for advocating the enforcement of existing laws first. I’ll give him 14 points.

On the Democrat side, we begin with John Edwards.

As part of an overall homeland security effort, Edwards wants more personnel on the border (read: more union members). But he fails to address any of the other border issues that can work in tandem with the increased manpower. I’ll give him one point.

It can be said that Mike Gravel is almost in line with John McCain on the immigration issue, since he favors security at the borders but in return giving amnesty for those illegals here. And that’s the wrong approach. I’ll deduct 13 points.

The only things I like about Barack Obama’s approach is the part about legal immigrants who fight for our country getting expedited citizenship and the emphasis on employers not hiring illegals. But then again, if the bill he supported was passed we wouldn’t have any illegals. He joins the chorus in supporting more border infrastructure as well. So I’m dropping Barack 12 points.

Bill Richardson has been there. And although he whines about the federal government not helping him out when it comes to border security, he’s got that same “seal the borders” mentality as most Republicans do, as well as employer verification of legality. But he’s in favor of amnesty and that’s a definite strike against him. He won’t be able to complain about the federal government if he’s in charge of it, will he? I’ll deduct 7 points off his score.

Closing in on the finish line, we have an exciting GOP race with four candidates having a good chance and a couple others not all that far away. Tom Tancredo didn’t take the opportunity to put away the field.

  1. Tom Tancredo, 60.5 points
  2. Rudy Giuliani, 53 points
  3. Mike Huckabee, 53 points
  4. Ron Paul, 51.5 points
  5. Duncan Hunter, 41 points
  6. Fred Thompson, 37 points
  7. Mitt Romney, 28 points
  8. Sam Brownback, 18.5 points
  9. Tommy Thompson, 11.5 points
  10. John McCain, -4 points

On the Democrat side, it’s likely this will be the final order since I see them all scoring the same on the last part.

  1. Mike Gravel, -15 points
  2. Joe Biden, -35.5 points
  3. Bill Richardson, -48.5 points
  4. John Edwards, -48.5 points
  5. Hillary Clinton, -55.5 points
  6. Chris Dodd, -57.5 points
  7. Barack Obama, -66.5 points
  8. Dennis Kucinich, -97.5 points

You may have guessed the contents of part twelve. Yep, it’s the Long War that concludes the 12 parts tomorrow.

 

Who will I support? – part ten

Courtesy of a great publication I subscribe (and occasionally contribute content) to, the Patriot Post:

“Being a conservative Republican should be about more than abortion policy and the War on Terror. The [GOP presidential] candidates should have to tell voters whether they still believe in traditional principles of limited government, federalism and individual liberty.” — Michael Tanner

With that said, today I get into what I call “role of government“. The subject was an early “50 year plan” post, but a more succinct summary goes like this:

  • The government should be as small as possible with limited tasks, those that cannot be done as well by the private sector or the market.
  • The closer the government is to the people, the better and more responsive it is. The reason I prefer government that’s as close to the people as possible is that smaller government can more easily be proactive rather than reactive.

I’m lumping government spending in with this section, as spending cuts obviously reduce the role of government. But being a deficit hawk or slowing growth won’t rate as highly with me.

In this case, I decided to look just at GOP candidates for this section. Hell, it’s not like the Democrats would help themselves anyway as they favor nanny-statism. They forget the Reagan truism, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.‘ ”

Here’s what they have to say, starting this time with a link from Rudy Giuliani.

Duncan Hunter:

A balanced federal budget is a priority for our national economic health and long-term prosperity. Throughout my tenure in Congress, I have fought for federal spending to provide for our national and homeland security, as directed by the U.S. Constitution, and funding increases in both of these arenas will be necessary in the future to keep our families safe and secure

Budgetary savings must be identified through efficiency reforms throughout the federal government. Furthermore, we must aggressively attack the creation and funding of duplicative federal programs, many of which simply do not perform but cost taxpayers millions of their hard-earned dollars. According to Office of Management and Budget, 28% of federal programs are either ineffective or have results that are not demonstrated. Reforming, combining or eliminating those programs remains among my highest legislative priorities.

John McCain gives his opinion on the topic here on his website.

Ron Paul:

Real conservatives have always supported low taxes and low spending.

But today, too many politicians and lobbyists are spending America into ruin. We are nine trillion dollars in debt as a nation. Our mounting government debt endangers the financial future of our children and grandchildren. If we don’t cut spending now, higher taxes and economic disaster will be in their future — and yours.

In addition, the Federal Reserve, our central bank, fosters runaway debt by increasing the money supply — making each dollar in your pocket worth less. The Fed is a private bank run by unelected officials who are not required to be open or accountable to “we the people.”

Worse, our economy and our very independence as a nation is increasingly in the hands of foreign governments such as China and Saudi Arabia, because their central banks also finance our runaway spending.

We cannot continue to allow private banks, wasteful agencies, lobbyists, corporations on welfare, and governments collecting foreign aid to dictate the size of our ballooning budget. We need a new method to prioritize our spending. It’s called the Constitution of the United States.

Mitt Romney wants to stop runaway spending too.

Tom Tancredo again does the .pdf link thing and the direct quote:

The federal government is in debt because it spends too much, not because it taxes people too little. Government spending is classified as either discretionary or mandatory. Discretionary spending includes funds for things like the military and is explicitly set by Congress on an annual basis. But the major culprit in ballooning budgets is mandatory spending for entitlement programs like medicare, expenditures which are determined by the number of beneficiaries. The only way to control the budget is to reform the entitlement programs that mandatory spending funds. Those decisions on how to allocate resources are as economically necessary as they are politically and ethically difficult.

Finally, Fred Thompson returns and on his blog looks at this subject through the lens of federalism.

Wow. In not looking at Democrats this time, I don’t feel like I need to take a shower afterward. But the reason I feature them is to show just how bad I think their alternatives are. So they will return for parts 11 and 12 tomorrow and Monday.

Since I wrote this somewhat in advance, I have to note that this post is timed to coincide with the start of the Ames Straw Poll, an event that will likely trim the GOP field as the bottomfeeders will likely conclude their quest is hopeless. Let’s see how the candidates in my field help themselves as 23 points are at stake.

Rudy Giuliani has a very solid idea of actions that need to be taken, including one excellent suggestions that I’ve talked about – a sunsetting provision for Federal programs. Also intriguing is the idea of separate capital and operating budgets, which occur in many states and municipalities. The only fly in the ointment is that many of his ideas will likely end up in court as the bureaucracy beast will fight after it’s cornered. That’s just a minor downgrade, and Rudy picks up a healthy 20 points.

Duncan Hunter also talks about limiting spending in non-defense areas, which is a good start, but doesn’t go as far as Rudy in the area of government reform. I’ll give Duncan 10 points for effort.

John McCain talks about ending pork-barrel spending, bringing transparency to earmarks, and an “obligation to future generations”. However, as he should be aware, Congress sets the budget and he shows no method to hold them in check, like a line-item veto or balanced budget amendment. I suppose for bringing up the subject he deserves a few points but nowhere near full credit – so I’ll give him three.

Ron Paul definitely shows his libertarian side with the things he talks about. While I think most of these actions are sound and necessary, I wish he defined the actions he’d undertake as President more completely – it’s still a bit vague about how he would get Congress and the entrenched special interests under rein. He goes farther than Hunter but not quite to the extent of Rudy Giuliani, so I’ll give him 17 points.

I like one thing Mitt Romney said on his site, it sums up the problem any incoming President will have with Congress:

“There’s no courage involved in spending more money. Drawing a line on spending is hard and fraught with criticism. When I vetoed $458 million of excessive spending in the budget this spring, I knew that community newspapers across the Commonwealth would decry my elimination of local pet projects. And, I knew that the Legislature would over ride most of my vetoes. In fact, they over rode all of them, to a chorus of community acclaim. But someone has to say no.”

Mitt has an understanding of the problem he’ll face, and he also talks quite a bit about his time in the private sector, not as a career politician. I think he deserves 15 points for the understanding of the problem, while at the same time appearing (to me) to be open to other solutions suggested by other candidates – because he ran a business.

Tom Tancredo is quite similar to Duncan Hunter in that he talks about reforming entitlements as a method of cutting spending but really doesn’t go into more specific detail – more like cutting entitlements as a goal, not a step. I’ll give him the same 10 points I gave Duncan Hunter.

As far as Fred Thompson’s treatise on federalism goes, it misses the target by just one tick as he says, about education, “It is appropriate for the federal government to provide funding and set goals for the state to meet in exchange for that funding.” No it’s not. Other than that, the man almost sounds like me and I’ll leap him into the running with 22 points. He may become a formidable candidate worth my support once he fleshes out some of the underlying issues he’s not gone into yet.

Like I said, no Democrats today, so they get a break from losing more points. And the GOP standings shuffle again, as leader Mike Huckabee missed this opportunity:

  1. Tom Tancredo, 50.5 points
  2. Rudy Giuliani, 48 points
  3. Mike Huckabee, 42 points
  4. Ron Paul, 32.5 points
  5. Duncan Hunter, 31 points
  6. Fred Thompson, 24 points
  7. Mitt Romney, 23 points
  8. Sam Brownback, 18.5 points
  9. John McCain, 6 points
  10. Tommy Thompson, -2.5 points

Only two issues to go, next up is border security and immigration, a 25 point installment.

Who will I support? – part nine

Ben Franklin noted that nothing in life is certain except death and taxes. While you can’t argue with those two truisms, a third corollary one is that Americans feel like they’re being taxed to death. I know I do. And that’s why the subject of taxation is close to the top as far as domestic issues go in this method of choosing the GOP candidate I’ll support. In fact, it’s worth 21 points, as many as the first three issues I dealt with combined.

My view on taxation is that I think the FairTax is likely the best way to go, but it has to be coupled with repeal of the Sixteenth Amendment. At the very least, a candidate I favor would keep the 2001/2003 Bush tax cuts in place.

Not surprisingly, the majority of candidates who address the issue are Republicans, but there’s a surprise or two in the Democrat camp.

Sam Brownback:

I have long championed both lower taxes and reform of the existing tax system, and recently signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge to oppose all tax increases. Much of our recent economic prosperity is directly attributable to the lower taxes enacted by recent Congresses. I believe America’s tax code is overly complex and burdensome. Americans spend roughly $157 billion each year in tax preparation, to ensure they do not run afoul of the Internal Revenue Service. The system is desperately in need of reform. I support a flat tax concept that simplifies tax preparation, applies a low tax rate to all Americans, and respects the special financial burden carried by American families raising children.

Rudy Giuliani:

Rudy is the real fiscal conservative in the race. He cut taxes 23 times in New York and turned a $2.3 billion budget deficit into a multi-billion dollar surplus, while balancing the city’s budget. Because he turned his conservative principles into action, New York City taxpayers saved more than $9 billion in taxes and enjoyed their lowest tax burden in decades, while the economy grew and city government saw its revenues increase from the lower tax rates. Rudy Giuliani believes in supply-side economics, because he did it and he saw it work.

To watch Rudy’s commitment to cutting taxes and ensuring economic growth, please click here.

Mike Huckabee talks taxes here.

Duncan Hunter has four separate areas on his issue page that explain his tax philosophy at length; more length than I feel is fair to quote. Pay attention to points 16, 17, 18, and 25.

Ron Paul:

Working Americans like lower taxes. So do I. Lower taxes benefit all of us, creating jobs and allowing us to make more decisions for ourselves about our lives.

Whether a tax cut reduces a single mother’s payroll taxes by $40 a month or allows a business owner to save thousands in capital gains taxes and hire more employees, that tax cut is a good thing. Lower taxes allow more spending, saving, and investing which helps the economy — that means all of us.

Real conservatives have always supported low taxes and low spending.

Mitt Romney looks at the subject on his webpage as well.

Tom Tancredo shows his support of the FairTax here, and with this quote:

A growing chorus of economists and experts argue, and I agree, that the current income tax system is complex and unfair and should be replaced by a flat tax or national sales tax. That’s why I co-sponsored the FairTax legislation. Simplifying the process would dramatically reduce the costs of compliance, make American companies more competitive, and put billions back into the economy by encouraging investment.

Tommy Thompson:

Governor Thompson cut taxes by $16.4 billion in Wisconsin and believes President Bush’s tax cuts must be permanent to allow taxpayers to keep more of their hard-earned money and to continue to build the economy. Governor Thompson also vetoed more than 1,900 items in 14 years in office, saving taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.

As noted, only a handful of Democrats delved into the tax issue, for obvious reasons. But I got some interesting surprises from those who dared enter the realm.

John Edwards wants to simplify the tax process.

A Democrat who supports the FairTax? Mike Gravel does.

And last among the trio of Democrats is Dennis Kucinich.

I can honestly say that we don’t have a Walter Mondale (whose push for higher taxes during the 1984 campaign led to a 49-state slaughter by Ronald Reagan) among the group; however, I did see a few possible George H.W. Bush “read my lips”-type statements. But who did the best?

Sam Brownback supports a flat tax concept, which is something I also favored when Steve Forbes ran for President in 1996 and 2000. While I’ve progressed beyond that because it maintains the tax on income rather than consumption, it still beats the progressive tax we have now. Sam will pick up 7 points.

Rudy Giuliani likes lower tax rates, and that’s good (not to mention correct as far as increasing revenue is concerned.) But he doesn’t tinker with the system as much as I’d like. However, he also gets credit for wanting to “give the death penalty to the death tax”, so I’ll give him 6 points.

I’m very confused by Mike Huckabee. On his website, he advocates the FairTax. But on the attached video, he also supports making the 2001/03 Bush tax cuts permanent and then sort of contradicts himself at the very end by talking about a flat tax. So which is it? If he had just stuck to the FairTax, he’d have scored higher than the 10 points I’ll give him.

Duncan Hunter sort of tweaks around the edges of what we have, stressing reforms to the “marriage penalty” and AMT along with some other simplification and reform. But there’s no radical change like what’s necessary. I’ll give him 4 points.

Well, Ron Paul, I like lower taxes too. So do almost all Americans. But how are we going to get to those lower taxes – rate reductions or a changing of the system? Inquiring minds want to know, and this one can only give you 2 points because of the lack of specifics.

In the words of Tom Tancredo, “I would support either of these long overdue tax reforms (flat tax or national sales tax) to our nightmarish tax code.” It’s a bit wishy-washy in that regard, but Tancredo also wants to scrap the tax code and start over regardless – an important first step. I think he deserves 14 points.

Mitt Romney is relatively moderate when it comes to taxation, mostly advocating lower rates. He also has an idea about cutting the capital gains tax to zero for people of lower incomes – why not everyone? And yes, he’d make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Good steps, but not terribly exciting so he gets only 4 points.

Tommy Thompson just speaks to making the Bush tax cuts permanent. That’s not enough, particularly in comparison to other candidates. Among responders only Ron Paul is less specific and for that Tommy just gets 3 points.

John Edwards doesn’t mess with tax rates, just so-called “simplification”. His “Form 1” would allow the fox to guard the henhouse – because the IRS already has all of your information, they figure your taxes and you simply sign the form stating you agree with their calculations (never mind that, as far as tax advice goes, the IRS is wrong as often as not.) This is almost as diabolical as backup withholding. While I will grant Edwards credit for not specifically asking for a tax increase and for out-of-the-box thinking, it’s still a bad idea and he’s docked one point.

As I noted earlier, Mike Gravel supports the FairTax. However, he does not mention the repeal of the Sixteenth Amendment and talks about it as a “progressive” tax by adjusting the “prebate” portion as he feels is fair. So there are a couple flies in the ointment. But he deserves as much credit as I gave Tom Tancredo for his stance, which would be 14 points.

Dennis Kucinich wants no part of a death tax repeal and wants to raise taxes by going back to the Clinton tax rates on “the wealthy.” Wrong direction there, Dennis, and he practically secures the “biggest threat to the republic” crown by plummeting another 21 points.

Hitting the third turn now in this horse race of sorts, and it’s starting to look like a two-man race on the GOP side:

  1. Mike Huckabee, 42 points
  2. Tom Tancredo, 40.5 points
  3. Rudy Giuliani, 28 points
  4. Duncan Hunter, 21 points
  5. Sam Brownback, 18.5 points
  6. Ron Paul, 15.5 points
  7. Mitt Romney, 8 points
  8. John McCain, 3 points
  9. Fred Thompson, 2 points
  10. Tommy Thompson, -2.5 points

Wow, Mike Gravel actually ranks ahead of a Republican by 1/2 point. It won’t last. The top and bottom of the Democrat field are pulling away in different directions.

  1. Mike Gravel, -2 points
  2. Joe Biden, -35.5 points
  3. Bill Richardson, -41.5 points
  4. John Edwards, -49.5 points
  5. Barack Obama, -54.5 points
  6. Hillary Clinton, -55.5 points
  7. Chris Dodd, -57.5 points
  8. Dennis Kucinich, -97.5 points

Next time around (tomorrow), we look at an issue I call “role of government.”

Who will I support? – part eight

Part eight of my series begins what will be a six-day blitz of installments, one that I discussed earlier. This time I’m going to look at the candidates’ stance on entitlements. You can see where I stand on Social Security and Medicare by following the links. I’ve sort of expanded the Medicare realm into a discussion of where the candidates stand on health care and the government’s role in general.

This will be a fairly long chapter, although not as long as I thought it might be as many candidates still don’t touch that “third rail” of Social Security. And this also continues the two-point incrementalism I’ve followed, the subject is worth 19 points. However, I can pretty much guarantee no one will get all 19; to be honest, it’s going to be a matter of whether they lose points.

As always, I start with the GOP and first up in alphabetical order…

Sam Brownback begins with this on his Social Security ideas:

The Social Security System is facing a demographic crisis that will someday affect the financial viability of the Social Security Trust Fund. Projections for the financial solvency of the Trust Fund show that as baby boomers begin to enter retirement there will be an increase in the number of people drawing social security benefits, and yet a corresponding decrease in the number of working people who provide those benefits. Clearly, this will present a crisis within the system. We must firmly resolve to keep our commitment to current retirees and those preparing to retire. Further, we must modernize the system to ensure that Social Security is financially sound for our children. I believe every American has a stake in this debate, and I will continue to keep the dialogue open as we work toward a solution.

Then he tackles health care here:

Our healthcare system will thrive with increased consumer choice, consumer control and real competition. I believe it is important that we have price transparency within our health care system. This offers consumers, who are either enrolled in high deductible health plans or who pay out-of-pocket, the ability to shop around for the best prices and plan for health care expenditures. Also, the existing health insurance market forces consumers to pay for extra benefits in their premiums, such as aromatherapy and acupuncture, which tends to increase the cost of coverage. Instead, consumers should be able to choose the from health care coverage plans that are tailored to fit their families’ needs and values. Accordingly, individuals should be allowed to purchase health insurance across state lines. Finally, I believe that consumers should have control over the use of their personal health records. I have a proposal that would offer consumers a means to create a lifetime electronic medical record, while, at the same time, ensuring that the privacy of their personal health information is secured and protected.

Over time, the socialized medicine model has shown to deprive consumers of access to life-saving treatments and is downright inconsistent with the spirit of the American people to be free from unwanted government intervention. I will continue to work at the forefront to create a consumer-centered, not government-centered, healthcare model that offer both affordable coverage choices and put the consumer in the driver’s seat.

Unfortunately, Rudy Giuliani ranks health care as one of his “12 Commitments” but hasn’t elaborated on it yet as I write this.

Mike Huckabee talks about health care here.

Also placing his thoughts on the health care issue online is Mitt Romney. There are several sublinks to follow there as well.

Tom Tancredo places both a description and a slightly different .pdf link on his site. The Tancredo link to health care is here and Social Security here. These are the text portions.

The two major problems are the high cost of care and the number of uninsured. Tort reform and immigration enforcement would save the system billions and drive down costs. In California alone, illegal immigrants cost the system $800 million annually and have forced 84 hospitals to close.

As for the uninsured: as many as 25% of them are illegal aliens and should be deported or encouraged to leave. For citizens and legal residents who are employed by businesses which cannot afford coverage, I favor association health plans which band small businesses together to access lower cost insurance. For those out of work, state governments should be the primary source of relief, although I would not rule out federal incentives or limited subsidies to make sure families who have fallen on hard times are not without coverage.

And Social Security:

There is no question that the system is broken. Projections show that by 2016, the only way to avert its collapse will be deep cuts in benefits, heavy borrowing, or substantial tax hikes. The best suggestion I have heard is to switch from a defined benefits approach to a defined contribution approach with payroll tax funded private investment accounts. These accounts would be made available to young workers and function similarly to 401Ks.

Wrapping up the GOP side is Tommy Thompson and his healthcare proposal.

Now for your reading “pleasure” is the Democrat responses. Most of these turn out to be just links. Of course they’re just something else as well but I’ll have fun ripping them apart later.

Joe Biden, in third person, on health care:

Joe Biden believes that to protect jobs, compete in a global economy and strengthen families we have to have to address out-dated health care system. The next president will have to deal with two challenges: containing the growing costs of health care and providing access to the 47 million Americans who don’t have health insurance.

Joe Biden believes we need to take three steps to contain the cost of health care: modernize the system, simplify the system and reduce errors. He supports the transition to secure electronic records so that people can provide their doctors and nurses with vital medical information in real time. He believes there should be a uniform, efficient system to submit claims.

Joe Biden believes the path toward a 21st century health care system starts with the most vulnerable in our society. He would expand health insurance for children and relieve families and businesses of the burden of expensive catastrophic cases. He supports states that are pursuing innovative alternatives to make sure that everyone has access to health care and believes we should use data from these states to evaluate what works best in providing affordable access to health care for all.

Hillary Clinton has both an issue page and a feature page regarding health care.

With a sort of rare appearance in this forum, Chris Dodd goes into both health care and, as he terms them, senior issues.

John Edwards doesn’t do a double-dip, it’s just health care for him too.

Mike Gravel has a few guts as he’s the rare Democrat taking a stab at Social Security:

Senator Mike Gravel wants to put real money, rather than borrowed money, in the Social Security Trust Fund, investing it properly and identifying the interests of individual beneficiaries so they can leave their surplus funds to their heirs. He also calls on Congress to stop raiding the Social Security Trust Fund. This is key to ensuring that Social Security will be around long after the Baby Boomers are gone for the next generation of Americans who have paid into it.

Also he has the obligatory look at health care:

Senator Gravel advocates a universal health-care voucher program in which the federal government would issue annual health care vouchers to Americans based on their projected needs. Under the Senator’s plan, all Americans would be fully covered and would be free to use their vouchers to choose their own health care professional. No one would ever be denied health insurance because of their health, wealth, or any other reason. A universal health-care voucher plan will also relieve American businesses of the financial responsibility of insuring their workers while ensuring that their workers get adequate care.

Dennis Kucinich has FOUR different links on his site, calling them Social Security, Medicare Bill, Seniors, and Universal Health. Policy wonk in action.

Barack Obama simply deals with health care.

So does Bill Richardson.

The question now becomes, “how much do I agree with all of these viewpoints, and how many points will I assign?”

Particularly on Social Security, Sam Brownback almost seems to fill space with his paragraphs. While I’m sure I’ve been accused of doing the same thing, I’m not running for President either. He does talk some in his health care segment about a consumer-centered model (which is good) but I’m afraid he’s going to use the federal government to enforce it. I suppose overall this is good enough for just 4 points, there’s not a lot to like here.

It’ll be interesting to see what Giuliani comes up with, but not having the data now will affect his end score and may cost him my endorsement.

I really, really like what Mike Huckabee has to say about health care. He nails what I see as two main points – allowing more consumer choice and letting states be laboratories with their own programs. Unfortunately he doesn’t go into Social Security at all so I can only award half the points. I think the only minor quibble I have is with tax credits for health insurance; not that it’s not a good idea, but it doesn’t go with my tax philosophy. He gets 9 points of 19.

Mitt Romney is most known for the health insurance mandate he secured in Massachusetts. While he claims that this is the best way to avoid government-mandated health care (by allowing people to choose their own insurance programs), the fact that one must make a choice bothers me most. It’s an idea for the hopper but I don’t think it’s the most wise one, so I let Mitt have 3 points because he doesn’t discuss Social Security either.

I have to give Tom Tancredo credit for addressing both the Social Security and health care issues. Establishing private accounts for Social Security (similar to what President Bush has proposed) is a good half-measure to stabilize the program, although I’d prefer it “wither on the vine”. Got to start someplace, though. Tancredo also gets credit for noting that the illegal immigration problem does affect the health care issue, but he’s not one to move away from the employer-based health insurance system like Mike Huckabee is, choosing instead to create larger groups for coverage. Nor does he rule out federal subsidies. Overall, the half-measure for Social Security and small steps in the right direction for health care get Tancredo 7 points.

Tommy Thompson also goes sort of halfway on health care, correctly seeing that preventative care is a key to reducing costs and advocating the industry use technology in a more integrated way. But, like Romney, he also wants insurance mandated for all which subtracts points. He also fails to get into Social Security so I’ll match the Romney total and give Tommy 3 points too.

For the Democrats, I’ll give Joe Biden credit for (like Tommy Thompson) discussing the role of technology in the health care field. He sounds a lot like Thompson, but also wants to expand the federal role where insuring children is concerned. And since he doesn’t discuss Social Security, it’s practically a wash. I guess I’ll give Biden one point since I gave Thompson 3, partly because he doesn’t go as far as some of his more leftwing cohorts do.

Hillary doesn’t talk about Social Security, only about what’s being called HillaryCare – more federal government mandates, regulations, and spending. So she’ll only lose 9.5 points.

Chris Dodd definitely goes after the AARP vote with a laundry list of proposals, including being dead-set against Social Security privatization. On the health care front, he envisions a Romney-like health insurance plan for all based on what members of Congress receive. But I have the same issue as I do with Romney – while coverage can be consumer-based, you have to be covered. And while I’d certainly prefer to have health insurance, some may not. It’s not the worst idea in the world, but too much of a mandate for me. Dodd will be docked 15 points.

John Edwards wants to require everyone be insured too, but doesn’t make it consumer-based like Dodd does. Since he also doesn’t touch the Social Security “third rail” I can only dock him 9.5 points too.

On Social Security, I’m sure the “real money” that Mike Gravel wants to put into it comes from higher FICA taxes. That’s the only way to pay for everyone who’s eligible now and in the future. But I do give him credit for wanting to allow unused benefits to be passed on to heirs. It’s a sort of privatization-lite, so I can’t dock him for Social Security. The health care vouchers are also an intriguing idea that might be better tried at a state level. I guess instead of “money follows the child” it’s “money follows the sick.” I will give the man credit for innovation in both categories and add 3 points to his score.

Dennis Kucinich says, “Health care is a right that all Americans deserve.” He also is tooth and nail against Social Security reform of any sort. Please read the Constitution and tell me where either of these are in it. Kucinich also claims Michael Moore is in favor of his health plan. 19 points off.

In deciding to drive profitability out of both business (employers that do not offer or make a meaningful contribution to the cost of quality health coverage for their employees will be required to contribute a percentage of payroll toward the costs of the national plan) and health insurance (Obama will prevent companies from abusing their monopoly power through unjustified price increases and force insurers to spend more funds on patient care instead of keeping exorbitant amounts for profits and administration), Barack Obama is laying the groundwork for socialized medicine like Great Britain has – quite inefficient. He loses 9.5 points solely because he doesn’t go into Social Security either.

With Richardson, it’s more of the same. So he’s out 9.5 points as well.

It’s amazing just how much Democrats want the government to be who you depend on should you get sick. Makes me sick thinking about what would happen if they win next year.

Anyway, we move on to the revised standings, starting with the GOP. Mike Huckabee widens his lead as we’re in the backstretch:

  1. Mike Huckabee, 32 points
  2. Tom Tancredo, 26.5 points
  3. Rudy Giuliani, 22 points
  4. Duncan Hunter, 17 points
  5. Ron Paul, 13.5 points
  6. Sam Brownback, 11.5 points
  7. Mitt Romney, 4 points
  8. John McCain, 3 points
  9. Fred Thompson, 2 points
  10. Tommy Thompson, -5.5 points

For the Democrats, it’s looking like a Kucinich runaway as far as wacko socialism goes. But that’s not surprising. Meanwhile, some of these guys make Mike Gravel look like a moderate in comparison.

  1. Mike Gravel, -16 points
  2. Joe Biden, -35.5 points
  3. Bill Richardson, -41.5 points
  4. John Edwards, -48.5 points
  5. Barack Obama, -54.5 points
  6. Hillary Clinton, -55.5 points
  7. Chris Dodd, -57.5 points
  8. Dennis Kucinich, -76.5 points

Tomorrow we look at one of my “favorite” issues, taxes. This is a big opportunity for a GOP breakout.

Thoughts before a few days away

Away from active blogging, that is. I’ve already set up the next several days of posts except for the Shorebird of the Week which I’ll write later tonight once the game is over. It’s not that I don’t enjoy writing posts on a daily basis but I need a few days away to do stupid stuff like see my family and relax after some pretty intense days at work.

But fear not, faithful readers, while the content may be prewritten it’s still fresh to you and I’ll still be about to moderate comments. I’ve had quite a few lately so I’m beginning to think this Congressional race is heating up. And since the Ames Straw Poll occurs this coming Saturday, the GOP presidential field may shrink by the time I return. At the moment, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are the leaders for my endorsement, but we still have five parts to go and they get progressively more important – so a misstep by one or both of those two could open things up for another candidate.

Speaking of the Congressional race, I found out the other day that the August WCRC meeting is slated to have Congressman Gilchrest as our speaker. This will be August 27th. I know that more info will be on the WCRC website in the next few days because I just sent our webmaster the summer edition of our relaunched newsletter. (By the way, Andy Harris will also get his turn but I’m not sure we can get Joe Arminio a slot because of other upcoming events that are detailed in the newsletter.)

And there’s one other thing I wanted to get into before I spend a few days away. Lately there’s been a lot of controversy amongst the local blogging world, a little moreso than usual. Obviously we have one person who claims to be top dog with thousands of readers a day…well, good for him. I read the site once or twice a day myself, and he does a pretty decent job running around to cover some of the goings-on in town.

There was a comment this gentleman made on another blog that noted that my readership is down somewhat since he stopped linking here. While it is the case I have fewer readers than I did a couple months ago, something tells me that this is true for many websites of a political nature since we’re between political seasons. I’ll be honest though, it is down from its peak and, while I’m not ecstatic about it, I’m confident that it will come back up as the arrival of cooler weather brings people back to political mode.

I do want to bring up a few numbers though, something this other person’s not willing to do. I keep my Site Meter stats on a weekly basis and have since April of 2006. This is the evolution of readership in that time:

  • April 17, 2006 (first full week) – 229 visitors
  • August 7, 2006 (one year ago) – 480 visitors
  • January 1, 2007 – 679 visitors
  • Jauuary 15, 2007 – 1,065 visitors (first 1,000+ week)
  • April 16, 2007 – 1,829 visitors (all-time high)
  • August 6, 2007 – 1,120 visitors

So I’ve lost some readership but I assumed I would because I decided to do a tradeoff back in early June. At that time I decided I couldn’t be a true news site, in part because of time constraints and also because two or three other local bloggers were covering that territory well. Thus I shifted focus more to statewide and national issues that affect us locally. This shift probably explains the fact that while my readership is less locally it has a larger base. It may also explain why my readership’s not huge but I still rank on the list of Maryland’s most influential blog sites.

And I still think I have the BEST readers of any of the local websites because they obviously comprehend what I say and make good comments based on the arguments I make – some agree, others dissent.

So as I take a few days off enjoy what I’ve placed up for your inspection over the next week. I might be pretty fired up by the time I get back with a lot of pent-up writing to do.