Top of fold update: At least one Maryland U.S. Senate candidate is getting a firsthand look at the situation on the ground in Massachusetts – Dr. Eric Wargotz’s Facebook page states he’s in the Bay State helping out.
Unless you are still in a self-induced coma from overdoing it during the recent holiday season you’re probably aware of tomorrow’s special election in Massachusetts to fill the unexpired term (through the 2012 election) of the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy.
This is an election most notable for Scott Brown’s response to a debate question on filling the “Kennedy seat”: “It’s not the ‘Kennedy seat’ and it’s not the Democrats’ seat – it’s the people’s seat.” After that remark and what was widely scored as a resounding head-to-head victory over his gaffe-prone opponent Martha Coakley, Brown has surged to the lead in many statewide polls, shocking the Democrat establishment and placing into question the Democrats’ 60-seat Senate majority.
(It bears repeating as well that the Democrats regained the 60th seat after Kennedy’s death by reversing a state law enacted in 2004 when Massachusetts had a Republican governor and there was the possibility Senator John Kerry would have to leave his seat if elected President. That 2004 law prevented the naming of a successor by the governor and allowed for a special election. Needing that 60th seat and knowing he was gravely ill, Kennedy himself pushed for the change and made it possible for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick to name a fellow Democrat to the Senate.)
Political mavens are quite aware that Massachusetts is one of the most partisan states in the country and Democrats there hold an enormous voter registration advantage over the GOP. However, unaffiliated voters make up the largest percentage of the Bay State electorate and Brown is carrying the day easily among the group, negating the Democrats’ numerical advantage.
Obviously a Brown win would hearten the Republican Party in Massachusetts, but it also brings with it the prospects of winning in otherwise unthinkable races – such as the U.S. Senate race in Maryland where four hopefuls (Daniel McAndrew, Jim Rutledge, Corrogan Vaughn, and Dr. Eric Wargotz) look to unseat longtime incumbent Senator Barbara Mikulski.
While the numbers in Maryland aren’t quite as bad as they are in Massachusetts, there are more negative factors at play here. Obviously the seat is still held by Senator Mikulski and, despite some recent health issues, by all accounts she’s still relatively active and of sound mind despite her advancing age (Mikulski turns 74 in July.) Unless something unexpected happens between now and November, Mikulski is a sure bet to seek a fifth term in the Senate.
The other disadvantage comes in the fact that Maryland’s race won’t be an outlier like this Senate race is because of its unique position on the calendar. On Election Day in 2010 over 1/3 of the Senate is at stake and national attention will focus on races deemed as toss-ups, including the contest in neighboring Delaware to finish Vice-President Biden’s unexpired term (through 2014 – remember, Biden won twice in Delaware in 2008.) A further handicap may be Maryland’s late primary, where GOP candidates have to work against each other until the middle of September before training their guns solely on Barbara. (However, if all four run against her that can be negated. She has a record which is worth assailing.)
But that’s not to say Maryland’s race is unwinnable. The nation is in an anti-incumbent mood and Mikulski isn’t known for much besides being a Democrat loyalist (some would say hack). Nor has Mikulski had to truly campaign, cruising to victory by margins ranging from 21 to 42 points in four elections (in 2004 she defeated State Senator E.J. Pipkin by a 65% to 34% margin.)
One has to ask just what Mikulski is doing for the state by being so compliant with the liberal Democrat line. Obviously I question the liberal Democrat line myself since it’s doing little good for the nation, but one needs to ask about just how well Maryland is being represented by a Senator who seemingly never leaves the Washington area. At least I’ve seen Ben Cardin in these farflung parts of Maryland, but of the representatives I’m currently saddled with I’ve yet to meet Senator Mikulski.
So the question becomes whether Senator Mikulski is in touch with her state or simply feels entitled to the seat, as in “the Mikulski seat.” Perhaps she votes in a way she thinks is in the state’s interest because the state is solidly Democratic in terms of voter registration.
But, as we see in Massachusetts, poor governance transcends party identification and in rural parts of Maryland being a Democrat doesn’t necessarily mean toeing the party line at the ballot box. Making an issue of Mikulski’s “politics as usual” can be a strategy which pays off, and working hard to get votes against an aloof incumbent could lead to a surprise November 2nd.
The question to be determined in the coming months is: ideological differences aside, who will become our Scott Brown and how hard will be work to pull off a victory?
This is just a theory, and I hope I am wrong, but if the Democrats in Massachusetts lose or come very close to losing, I expect them to open up the money spigot in the races here. I hope that conservative candidates are very prepared for what’s coming.
My thought is that if Brown wins (and perhaps even if he just comes very close) that would be the impetus for Ehrlich to challenge Mikulski rather than seeking a rematch with O’Malley.
Wargotz is a great guy. The fact that he went up to Mass to help Brown really shows how he will band together with fellow Republicans to make positive changes for the US.