Radio days volume 11

I guess this is the Spinal Tap edition, I’m up to 11.

No, in reality I’m going to go ahead and finish up on some of the points I either got to or meant to get to this morning. And since I’m in for a penny on the prognostications, I may as well be in for a pound. That’s at the end. But I’ll begin with what I said (or wanted to.)

• Positive campaigning at the Lincoln Day dinner – who knew!?!

That was nice, much better than the scorched earth of the last few weeks.

• Presidential race.

Because the conventional wisdom pre-Super Tuesday of a Hillary coronation on the Democrat side and a brokered GOP convention, I was expecting at least one GOP candidate to make a stop on the Eastern Shore before the Chesapeake (or Potomac) Primary while the Democrats stuck to the I-95 corridor. Well, it turns out we had the reverse happen, sort of. Michelle Obama is better than no one at all, and it may even turn a county or two down here. It was a point I didn’t get to make, as was one I talked to Bill about afterward.

At that point I speculated we’re going to see a 3-5% undervote among the Eastern Shore counties on the GOP side for the Presidential race vs. the Congressional race, since the First District has such a hot race while the Presidential one is pretty much set. Conversely, the Presidential race should get 1-3% more total votes than the Congressional one for the Democrats since there’s not nearly as much name recognition.

• Congressional race.

I forgot to plug when Andy Harris would actually be here. Oh well.

Now, as to what I said about the way the various areas of the First District would vote. West of the Bay I see Harris winning by a small margin (2 points or so) over Wayne Gilchrest. It would have been more like 6 points, but I think the endorsements by the Annapolis Capital and Baltimore Sun might help Wayne pick up 3-4 points. It’ll be a bit disappointing since that’s Andy’s home area.

The upper Shore will go for Gilchrest, with Pipkin and Harris battling for second. Actually, Pipkin hurts Gilchrest a lot here because they both share the same home area. In a two-person race Wayne may have won that region by 10-15 points over Harris.

In our area, I expect much the same result as the Western Shore, with Harris winning here by 3 to 4 points. I’ll restate my prediction on the race below for those who didn’t listen, but first I’ll go through the other races.

• Predictions.

These are just my gut instincts based on a few (about 10-12) years of political experience. Starting with the Democrats, for the Presidential race statewide I see it this way:

1. Barack Obama 56%
2. Hillary Clinton 42%
3. all the others 2%

I think Hillary will carry Wicomico County by a 50-48 margin. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michelle Obama’s visit turned that number around, though.

First District Congress:

1. Frank Kratovil 61%
2. Chris Robinson 33%
3. Steve Harper 5%
4. Joseph Werner 1%

Robinson will do better locally, but still lose by 10 points or so. How about 53-43?

Now to the GOP. Thanks to Mitt Romney pulling out, I’ll probably not be able to defend my Central Committee title from the last election but you never know. (I had Romney winning in Wicomico County but McCain statewide with a smaller percentage than I now have below.)

(Late edit: I forgot to add the local numbers on the original.)

1. John McCain 62%
2. Mike Huckabee 26%
3. Ron Paul 7%
4. all others 5%

There may be a little more of a McCain protest vote than 5% statewide, and that would come out of Ron Paul’s number. Locally, I think the split will be McCain 52%, Huckabee 35%, Paul 7%, and all others 4 percent. But I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Huckabee actually carried the county.

First District Congress:

1. Wayne Gilchrest 38%
2. Andy Harris 36%
3. E.J. Pipkin 21%
4. Joe Arminio 3%
5. Robert Banks 2%

Man, as a Harris supporter did it hurt to say that. Locally Harris will win Wicomico with 39%, Gilchrest 36%, Pipkin 20%, Arminio 4%, and Banks 1 percent.

As I mentioned, it’s really tough to beat an incumbent in a primary in the first place. But what will do Andy Harris in is not the negative campaigning or questions about the influx of money from the Club For Growth. He could have easily overcome those.

Nope, what denies Andy Harris the GOP nomination is one E.J. Pipkin.

I believe that if you ask the Pipkin voters, 70% would have pulled the lever for Andy Harris had Pipkin not jumped in the race. That works out to an extra 15% for Harris and 6% for Gilchrest, and Harris wins easily. Even had John Leo Walter stayed in the race and pulled the 10% or so I figured he’d get, Andy had enough margin to win without Pipkin injecting himself into the race at the last minute.

What really sucks about that is the establishment Republicans will see the Gilchrest win as more evidence that the conservative wing of the party is no longer dominant, while in reality three guys who are more conservative than Wayne Gilchrest will draw 60% of the vote but get squat.

Now when the votes are counted tomorrow night, I would be more than happy to have a large serving of crow should Andy Harris win. (Can I at least have it sauteed with a little garlic butter?) Above all, it will come down to turnout and whose campaign gets the votes out.

As on the radio that will be my parting remark for this evening. See you at the polls tomorrow.