Originally today I was going to go back and try to wrap up the week of Scott Brown, but instead I think I’ll do that tomorrow or Sunday.
A few days ago, a friend of mine posited a scenario assuming Scott Brown won and the Senate version of Obamacare was forced into the House for an up-and-down vote. I’ll let her do the rest:
Nancy Pelosi is then going to try to force the Senate bill, unchanged, through the House. The problem is, without the Stupak language, she certainly loses Joseph Cao, and she’ll also probably lose Stupak and a few other Dems on conscience alone. She’ll probably lose a few more who had the sh*t scared out of them today, but will hide behind their consciences. That means she has to go back to them Dems who voted no– you know, folks like that guy who “represents” you. I see the dialogue going something like this:
Nancy: I need your vote on this bill.
Frank: If I vote for this thing, I haven’t a prayer of being reelected, and will be hung in effigy in every town on the eastern shore.
Nancy: You are going to lose whatever you do. The only reason you won in the first place is because the GOP was divided. Not going to happen this time. But, if you vote for the bill, when you lose, the administration will find you a cushy job– maybe an ambassadorship somewhere where hanging an ambassador in effigy is enough to get a person locked up. If you vote no, don’t expect any help finding a job.
So, what’s your take— assuming the scenario plays out about like that, what do Kratovil and his ilk do?
Well, this may not happen because Pelosi’s already claimed she can’t get 218 votes for the Senate health care bill, and maybe she’s already had a similar conversation with Frank.
Quite honestly, I don’t think Frank Kratovil would fall for this (perhaps others would) because, in my (admittedly limited) personal dealings with him he doesn’t come across as a smarmy political hack like some other Democrats I’ve met do. I know he’s been involved in politics since his college days, but he’s made at least some attempt at maintaining an independent streak with a couple votes and stance on illegal immigration.
That’s not to say Frank won’t be looking for a federal job if he loses in November – certainly Stevensville isn’t a terrible daily commute to Washington and the Justice Department is always looking for sharp legal minds. (Kratovil doesn’t seem like the lobbyist type, but you never know.) Nor is it out of the question to think a 2010 loss for Kratovil could lead to Kratovil vs. Harris act 3 in 2012.
But I think the Brown victory represented a “come to Jesus” moment for Kratovil as well. The issue where Frank is probably most conservative is illegal immigration, so this week was an opportune time for him to jump on board a House resolution supporting the “E-verify” program, improved border security, and not granting amnesty to illegals already here. In an effort to maintain his job, Frank’s voting record for the rest of the 111th Congress just might be comparable to Roscoe Bartlett’s. Anything to avoid the “liberal” tag.
Since there’s likely not going to be a primary challenger to Kratovil’s left, the true portsiders are going to have to hold their noses and vote for Frank in November. Of course, those on the right will go for presumptive GOP standardbearer Andy Harris, who will certainly be tarred by Kratovil’s supporters as the second coming of President Bush.
That leaves the people in the center, who just happened to be the ones who spoke loudest in Massachusetts. While Kratovil has spent the last year catering to the perception of being middle-of-the-road, I don’t think he can stay there without being run over by either his party’s leadership or the voters of the First District. We know how he voted before the TEA Parties began and once he’s safely re-elected I think he’d travel back down that route.
Then Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama wouldn’t have nearly as much to worry about.
