March 2008 – Page 4

Legislative checkup, 2008 session day 60 (part 1)

I believe day 60 actually falls on Sunday but I thought this a good time to see how the bills I highlighted last month have progressed. Just like in February, today I’ll look at the Democrats’ bills and tomorrow legislation proposed by the Maryland GOP. If you want a brief synopsis of each piece of legislation, that can be found on the original post.

HB115 passed the House on third reading 136-0 with a minor amendment placing the message on the check stub instead of the check. Oddly enough, Delegate Cane did not vote for the bill he co-sponsored, all of our other local Delegates voted in favor. The first reading in the Senate was February 25.

Delegate George’s HB288, a bill I mentioned briefly at the end of a recent post, awaits its hearing March 19. While this is primarily sponsored by Republicans, it’s included in the Democrat summary because locally Delegate Jim Mathias, a Democrat, is one co-sponsor.

HB358/SB819 is stuck in limbo on the House side, the Senate’s hearing is also March 19.

Out of the eight separate bills I cited which were placed by the O’Malley Administration to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis, only SB270 has progressed beyond the hearing stage. This was passed for third reading but heavily amended. Officially the vote will be recorded Monday, thus I do not have the tally at this time.

The speed camera proposal, HB364/SB269, apparently cleared the Senate yesterday as amended by Senator Kittleman. The amendment waters down the law to some extent but shortens the grace period for warnings.

HB368/SB268, another O’Malley initiative, has not made it past the hearing stage yet.

Another primarily GOP idea that Delegate Mathias co-sponsored, HB370/SB211, is also in post-hearing limbo.

Yet another O’Malley-backed bill divesting us from Iran (HB371/SB214) had hearings but no progression since, although the Senate hearing was just on Tuesday.

The suite of two House and two Senate bills related to energy usage in Maryland (EmPOWER Act and High Performance Buildings Act) are also stuck in neutral.

A victory against both race-based selection and extreme environmentalism was achieved when both HB451 and SB100 were defeated in their respective committees. The related HB508 and SB99 were also scrubbed.

The Affordable Housing Trust Fund bill, subject of a recent GOP press release I wrote about this week, also awaits further action after House and Senate hearings last month.

HB519 just had a hearing this week, and has now been joined by the crossfiled SB933. That will get a hearing on March 19th.

Another bill to establish yet another Commission, HB598, is also another bill that sits after it was heard last month.

HB613 recently picked up a crossfiled bill, SB998. The House hearing is Tuesday, no Senate hearing is scheduled.

Local farmers hopefully had their say last week when HB898/SB434 had its hearing. This is called the Incentives for Agricultiure Act.

Another crossover by Delegate Mathias is the combination of HB947/SB646. On Tuesday the House bill will get its hearing, but the slightly amended Senate version passed its third reading last Tuesday 41 to 5. At this time, I don’t have the voting breakdown.

The in-state tuition for illegals bill (HB1236) got its hearing on Tuesday.

Crossing over again, Delegate Mathias is a co-sponsor of HB1314, which got its hearing this past Tuesday. The crossfiled SB583 has its turn on March 11.

We’ll see if the death penalty repeal bill (HB1328/SB645) goes anywhere after the hearing process concludes with the House next week. The timing of this study was amazing, wasn’t it?

Finally, HB1416 has a hearing next week too.

So there’s been some movement on these proposals, but I’m surprised that more of the ones Governor O’Malley is backing haven’t progressed yet. Perhaps they’re trying to cram all of the votes in the last frenzied couple weeks of the session, since it’s mostly non-controversial bills which have passed.

Tomorrow I’ll look at how the Maryland GOP is faring.

And then they came for us…

Here in Maryland, the political spectrum is well-represented by bloggers of all stripes, from those on the left who contribute to the Free State Politics website over to my cohorts and I who write for Red Maryland – not to mention the hundreds of independent websites that have popped up over the latter half of this decade.

But imagine if only the politically correct side was allowed to prosper, while the other side did its best but was threatened by legal and financial ruin at every turn. And we’re not talking about some freedom-starved nation like North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, China, or Cuba (to name a few) – we’re talking about our neighbor to the north, Canada.

Michelle Malkin has been following the battles up there and earlier this week she posted about conservative Canadian bloggers running into legal trouble in both civil and criminal court. One example was a blog called Free Dominion, whose writers opted to sell their site to a larger company rather than face continuing legal issues. This essay from a blogsite called No Apologies by one of Free Dominion‘s co-founders gives a rundown of what can happen if you run afoul of the Canadian Human Rights Commission. Here’s a small excerpt:

The conservative internet, however, is under attack. The Canadian Human Rights Commission has already been used on many occasions to shut down websites and to place lifetime speech bans on webmasters who have been hauled before its tribunals. (Emphasis mine.)

The human rights commission attacks on Ezra Levant and Mark Steyn have made a lot of people aware of the danger of allowing these government bodies to regulate the speech of Canadians, and the internet has been abuzz with stories of bureaucratic abuse. The fight for free speech has begun.

(snip)

The fact that site owners are being sued over posts that have been made by their members is already making webmasters wonder if allowing free speech on their websites is worth the risk to their homes or their savings.

I know locally we already have a veteran of being sued for alleged defamation of character because of items on his blog, but that’s small potatoes compared to having yourself hauled before this commission and placed on notice that what you think and believe does not belong in society because someone who happens to not agree politically took offense to what you wrote. In short, Canada no longer has a free society and, like Orwell’s 1984, thoughtcrime is now a punishable offense.

I made the remark on Michelle Malkin’s site that this could be something Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton would be interested in importing from Canada, despite their misgivings about NAFTA. While most would argue that a group like the CHRC would violate our First Amendment rights, I happen to believe that items like so-called “campaign finance reform” and “political correctness” have already diminished our First Amendment rights and can be construed as the canary in the coal mine, the overcoming stench wafting throughout our society. To me, it’s not that much of a leap to imagine the conservative side of the blogosphere targeted for financial and legal ruin by a group seeking to silence them. While most of these attempts would be thrown out in court, it only takes one judge to set a precedent.

The price for free speech is the exercise of vigilance.

Welcome to Economics 101

Say what you will about the Maryland GOP, whoever does their press releases has had flying fingers lately. Of course, being in session the General Assembly is full of material for those on our side to object to. Here are today’s examples, which go hand in hand:

As Taxpayers Leave Maryland, Tax Revenue Drops

Following last year’s Special “Tax Hike” Session, Martin O’Malley and Democrats in the General Assembly forced through a nearly $7 billion tax hike on Maryland families over the course of the next four years. They operated in the shadows and out of the light of day, and taxpayers were shut out of the process and without an opportunity to be heard.

Earlier today, the state Board of Revenue Estimates estimated that tax revenue will decrease by $333 million for fiscal years 2008 and 2009. According to WBAL Radio, David Roose, the Executive Secretary of the Board, indicated that the revenue shortfall reflects a slowdown in consumer spending, high energy prices, and falling home prices.

The Maryland Republican Party warned Democrats that raising taxes on Maryland’s working families and small businesses, especially computer services, would cause people to change shopping habits and in some cases, to move out of state. Not surprisingly, tax revenue is now expected to decline as Marylanders respond to these new tax burdens.

Dr. Jim Pelura, Chairman of the Maryland Republican Party, released the following statement:

“Martin O’Malley and the Democrats passed the largest tax increase in the history of Maryland and now Marylanders are changing their shopping habits and moving out of state. It is no surprise that we learn today that a slowdown in consumer spending, high energy prices, and falling home prices have caused tax revenue to drop. Democrats cannot keep raising taxes and expect Marylanders to keep taking it.”

“Most Marylanders live within 45 miles of the state line and can shop elsewhere, including some who enjoy tax-free shopping in Delaware. Other Marylanders have been forced to move their families out of state so they can better make ends meet. O’Malley and the Democrats need to realize that you cannot tax your way into prosperity.”

“The solution to the economic slowdown in Maryland is to provide tax relief now. Maryland’s working families can better spend their money than the government can. Instead of constantly increasing government spending and taxes, it is high time that working families get tax relief. Now is the time to cut taxes and give Marylanders a reason to shop and live in Maryland again.”

And then you have this:

Democrats Push For $130.7 Million In New Property Taxes

At a time when Marylanders are feeling the pinch of higher gas prices, soaring utility rates, and hikes in the cost of household goods, Democrats in the General Assembly are pushing for over $130 million in new property taxes.

Democrat leaders recently held hearings on Senate Bill 302 and House Bill 512, which would impose a new tax on Maryland families that would total $130.7 million in 2010 and increase each year thereafter. This would amount to an additional state property tax rate of $0.05 per $100 of assessed value for operating real property of a public utility and $0.02 for all other real property.

The new taxes would be used to start a new government program, the Maryland Affordable Housing Investment Fund. SB 302 and HB 512 would grow state government, creating a new board to administer the Fund with 14 new bureaucrat positions that would receive 4.4% annual pay raises without regard to budget shortfalls, inflation, or the job performance of the employee.

Dr. Jim Pelura, Chairman of the Maryland Republican Party, released the following statement:

“Martin O’Malley and the Democrats have not learned their lesson. They cannot tax the state into prosperity. In a volatile housing market, the last thing anyone should do is raise the property tax. What they should do is lower the property tax rate to provide Maryland families with the relief that they need right now. Marylanders are overtaxed and cannot afford more government programs. Martin O’Malley and the Democrats need to realize that they have a spending problem, not a revenue problem.”

You may ask why I placed both of these in one post, making it quite long. This is an example of why I call my website the “Memory Division”, because you’ll notice I refer backwards a lot. I think of it as groundwork for the 2010 campaign.

I’ll begin with my take on the first release, which talks about sagging revenues. Once again, Democrats have forgotten a cardinal rule that has been proven on the federal level by Presidents Bush 43, Reagan, and yes, even the Democrat John F. Kennedy – lowering tax rates increases revenue. On the other hand, both President Bush 41 and Clinton increased tax rates and led us into a recession. (President Reagan also made some minor increases in 1986 but on the whole was a tax cutter.) Unfortunately, Governor O’Malley thought he was smarter than everyone else and that revenues could increase with higher rates, but once again people voted with their feet and/or snapped their pocketbooks shut. It also aggravated the higher energy prices and rapidly eroding home equity which I believe can be traced to other misguided leftist policies. That’s a post for another day, though.

I do find fault with Chairman Pelura, however, in two areas. It’s not only working families that should get tax relief, all of us should get tax relief including those nasty rich people. They’re the ones who pay the taxes! He also should have brought up the point that consumers are paying the increased sales tax twice: once at the cash register and again as an increased cost to businesses that is passed on to the consumer. Remember, businesses never pay taxes – their customers do.

And while this has nothing to do with the Maryland GOP, it is unfortunate that their representatives in the House of Delegates could not present an alternative to the FY2009 budget without using the tax increases that Jim decries. This weakens the argument he makes precipitously.

Now I’ll turn my attention to HB512/SB302, which is one bill I brought up in my Legislative Checkup a few weeks back because it’s a bill co-sponsored by local Delegate Rudy Cane.

Last year people screamed about a 14% property tax hike in the City of Salisbury, enough so that a petition drive was attempted to put the issue to a referendum. Here we have the state of Maryland making an attempt to raise the property tax rates by 17.9% but it’s gotten little play in most areas. Even the Maryland GOP didn’t bring this up until days after the hearings. (Guess they need to read monoblogue more often.) While many scoff at the bill’s chances of passage with only a handful of sponsors, the seed has been planted. Look how many times they’ve made the attempt at in-state tuition for illegals, or as an example that did pass in recent years, the Fair Share Health Care Act (a.k.a. the Wal-Mart bill.)

And once again this bill would not just impact the tax bills we receive, but add hidden costs to our utility bills because they are hammered at 2.5 times the rate you and I would pay. It makes me wonder if the majority in the General Assembly really thinks these things through?

There’s a reason I titled this post as I did. Somehow the Democrats in our General Assembly cannot figure out basic economics. Even if I put it on the level of, “if all of us have less wealth, there is less wealth for you to redistribute and buy votes with,” I’m not too sure they’d understand what I’m trying to explain here. Then again, if it’s simply about using their power to intrude on the lives of average Free Staters as much as they can, I think they’ve learned that lesson quite well. That class is in session through April 7.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

Oh, by the way, before you accuse me of being against affordable housing, perhaps if we lightened the burden on average taxpayers an overspending state and federal government exacts, could it be the additional money in their pockets would allow them to save up enough for a good down payment? Being an architect, I like people enlisting the company I work for to design townhouses, condos, and single-family residences but that hasn’t happened a lot lately around here.

Republicans for Pelosi, er, Kratovil

It never ceases to amaze me how those who are purportedly on our side can flail about so blindly sometimes. Yesterday’s Daily Times had the slightly dated but not really old story recounted by Joe Gidjunis about a group called “Republicans for Kratovil”, made up primarily from all accounts by disgruntled employees and backers of soon-to-be-former Congressman Wayne Gilchrest. The group will have a fundraising breakfast next week in Chestertown, the heart of Gilchrest’s home base.

Folks, I look at this story and it makes me think of an equally silly analogy. Most of you know I supported and endorsed Rep. Duncan Hunter in his Presidential bid; unfortunately his campaign never really caught fire and he was generally at the bottom of the vote totals in the primaries he entered. In my opinion, the effort by Karen Willis and her co-conspirators would be like me starting a “Hunter Supporters for Obama” group. It makes just as much sense.

Certainly there are a few similarities in what Gilchrest stood for and what Kratovil claims to stand for – particularly regarding the Long War, likely the issue that did in Wayne Gilchrest in his primary bid. (Kratovil sees it solely as a civil war in Iraq.) They’re somehat similar on the environment and immigration, which is the issue Kratovil veers farthest to the right on. However, there are vast differences too, particularly on how much Kratovil wants the federal government to go into health care. And what Frank’s website doesn’t go into is his fiscal stance, which was probably the area where Wayne was farthest to the right. We’re left to infer that Kratovil would be like his supporter Martin O’Malley and wish to raise taxes – in this case, by doing away with President Bush’s tax cuts when they expire in just 2 to 3 years.

(By the way, it’s quite interesting that Kratovil has taken all of his party official endorsements off his website, including that of Governor O’Malley. Pictures of the both of them together too.)

My key point, though, is this. Back in midsummer, there was a party loyalty survey done by CQpolitics. Unfortunately, the links I had no longer work but I summarized the results here. I noted in that post from July 16, 2007:

Only four Democrats held under 75% loyalty to the party. Simply put, despite the Democrat challenger’s tough talk on immigration and the “law and order” approach instilled in him by his job, Frank is very likely to be a reliable vote in the liberal “D” column on at least some issues his district would like him to vote for in a conservative manner. Obviously, he’s also going to favor maintaining the ineffective (if not downright disastrous) leadership of Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer in the House as well.

Blinded by rage at their favored candidate losing, the Republicans for Kratovil can’t seem to figure out that their support of the Democrat in the race won’t push him any farther to the right on issues but will enable him to claim a bipartisan mantle for all of his votes, no matter how far on the left wing they fall. If these folks are that disgusted with the Republican voters of the First District electing someone they deem too conservative, perhaps they need to be honest with themselves and rethink their voting affiliation instead of going against the principles for which their originally chosen party stands.

Again, I’m changing subjects at the tail end of a post tonight for two things.

First, regarding last night’s post – thanks to ShoreThings pointing out to me that OpenOffice has a PowerPoint reader. Since I indeed have that program, I flipped through the 35 slides in the presentation. Unfortunately, my suspicions were correct that the GOP plan only cuts the revenues from the not-yet-adopted computer services sales tax and does not roll back additional O’Malley taxation like the overall sales tax increase or the revised income tax rates.

As for Monday’s post regarding in-state tuition for illegals, it’s now 2 down and 9 to go thanks to Delegate Ron George. I got a note from assistant Debbie Yatsuk that let me know he was also against the bill and gave me a heads-up on a bill he’s sponsoring regarding driver’s licenses for illegals, HB288. That bill has a hearing March 19 and she noted that an entire litany of groups will come out in opposition, including CASA de Maryland, Legal Aid Bureau, Public Justice Center, and various churches.

If you go here you can see the esteem one main HB288 opponent, Delegate Joe Vallario, is held in by CASA de Maryland.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

The budget battle begins anew

While it’s almost certainly an exercise in futility, GOP delegates announced today their budget plan for FY 2009. (Thanks to Carrie Simons-Sparrow for passing this along to me.)

The House Republican Caucus today rolled out their FY 2009 Budget Plan. The Republican proposal slows the rate of growth of State spending, resolves the structural deficit, eliminates computer services tax, and positions the state to withstand a significant economic downturn.

“The current budget course is not sustainable”, said Minority Leader Anthony O’Donnell. “The Governor’s budget as proposed leaves the structural deficit unresolved and the Rainy Day Fund depleted. The economic outlook is precarious and further inaction could have catastrophic consequences for the State of Maryland.”

The Republican plan reduces the total budget spending increase from 5.9% to 3.7%. It reduces the ongoing General Fund Budget spending increase from 5.6% to 2.6%. The reductions in spending eliminate the $308 million structural deficit.

“The 2007 Special Session did not resolve the long term structural deficit”, said Delegate Gail Bates, the ranking Republican member of the House Appropriations Committee. “There were no cuts in overall planned spending and the General Assembly actually created an additional $128 million in net new spending. At the same time, they passed a historic amount of tax increases which enabled state spending to continue to grow excessively.”

“This Administration has ransacked the state’s Rainy Day Fund”, said Minority Whip Christopher Shank. “It is funded only at the statutory minimum and is not well positioned to protect State finances from a significant financial downturn. There will be no place to turn for revenue to fund critical services. November’s Special Session spending spree has emptied the taxpayer’s pockets.”

The Republican’s (sic) proposal adds $400 million to the Rainy Day Fund above the statutory minimum.

“There is still time to exercise fiscal restraint and build reserves”, said Delegate Steve Schuh, a member of the House Appropriations Committee. “All of the major indicators point to a slowing economy. If we experience a significant economic downturn and spending has not been reined in, the only choice will be major cuts to services. This plan is fiscally responsible and it protects the citizens of Maryland against the possible economic storm on the horizon.”

I also got a .ppt file attached, which I assume is a PowerPoint file. Since I don’t have that particular program on my computer, fat lot of good that does me.

So that what our party’s Delegates have to say, and their heart is in the right place. But I feel we need to go further.

Slowing the rate of spending growth is nice, but I want to see actual budget cuts in real dollars. Another thing this does not tell me is whether their revised budget figures are based on revenue from the increased tax rates we now pay (aside from repealing the computer services tax that’s not yet in effect) – if so, then we have just surrendered all of the high ground we could claim as fiscal conservatives. If we’ve given in to that premise that the higher taxes are necessary after trying to fight them during the Special Session, we are doomed to perpetual minority status. Sadly, if their budget plan is based on the O’Malley tax package, this is just a halfway measure, a sort of Democrat-lite. (See endnote below.)

What I want to see is a call to the Democrats to justify each and every dollar that is spent in this state. There are certain functions the state has to provide (like the court system and law enforcement, state board of elections, etc.) and then there’s extras. For example, how much was added to the budget because of that market-ignorant “living wage” law passed last year? Or, assuming for the sake of argument that the economy is truly slowing down to the point of recession, why are we funding frills like Program Open Space and buying land that comes off the county and state tax rolls? I would think that we could pick up a little revenue by shedding some surplus state land.

Another idea for the savings hopper is privatizing some state services. While I don’t have a beef with the Maryland MVA (having just renewed my plates and updated my driver’s license last week), why not look into turning the function over to a private entity? Perhaps it’s a profit-maker for the state, but it could be a loss leader too. Honestly, I don’t know.

I’m sure it would be a full-time job for several months, but it would be interesting to have a group like the Maryland Public Policy Institute look deeply into the state budget and see where savings could be achieved by getting back to what the state is truly supposed to do and eliminating all of these tasks which may have been noble to begin with but now serve mostly as money pits and opportunities for giving patronage jobs to those who happen to be on the correct political side.

Now THAT’s a budget battle worth fighting. To be sure, it’s a hefty slice of pie-in-the-sky thinking, but I don’t believe in compromising either. Right is right, and wrong is wrong. Smaller, less obtrusive government that’s advocated by people on my side such as my Red Maryland cohorts is right, and the nanny statism supported by lefties such as those who currently run the Maryland General Assembly and the folks at Free State Politics is wrong.

If we really wish to be true to Republican principles and Constitutional government, we need to do more than slow down the rate of spending increase, we need to work on achieving the goal of putting more money in taxpayers’ pockets. If we could pull off the feat of streamlining state government to the extent I’d like to see, it would make the BRAC job increase look like peanuts compared to the influx of residents who would seek a low-tax, entrepreneur-friendly place to live.

Late edit: Since this is one of my submissions for Carnival of Maryland 28, I should tell you that I later found out and was disappointed that the GOP House of Delegates alternate budget still maintains all of Martin O’Malley’s tax increases that took effect earlier this year. It’s still better than what was submitted by the Administration, but not as much as I’d like.

Now, a quick change in subject. I indeed sent an e-mail out regarding last night’s post about the in-state tuition for illegals bill, and got my first response back from Page Elmore (R-38A), who said in part:

I certainly agree with your opposition and I will not vote for HB 1236.

That’s one down, ten more to go. Keep up the pressure.

Crossposted on Red Maryland.

Another effort for in-state tuition for illegals

At least the Maryland GOP is paying attention to the issue, and I like the angle they use on their press release:

Fund Public Safety, Not Illegal Immigration

Recently, Governor Martin O’Malley announced the closure of the Maryland state police barrack in Annapolis. O’Malley claims that his budget priorities do not allow a state police barrack in our state capital any longer.

Tomorrow, the House Ways and Means Committee is holding a hearing on House Bill 1236, which would qualify illegal immigrants for in-state tuition rates at Maryland’s state colleges and universities. Senate Bill 591 is the companion bill in the Senate. Through their own actions, Democrats are placing a higher priority on providing in-state tuition to illegal immigrants than providing for the public safety of our legal citizens.

Current law requires that a person have legal residency in the state of Maryland for one year prior to qualifying for in-state tuition rates. House Bill 1236 and Senate Bill 591 would continue imposing the one-year legal residency requirement on U.S. citizens, but would not impose that requirement on those illegally in the U.S. House Bill 1236 has 41 co-sponsors (including local Delegate Rudy Cane of District 37A – editor), Senate Bill 591 has 10 co-sponsors, and Governor Martin O’Malley expressed support for last year’s effort to qualify illegal immigrants for in-state tuition rates.

Last year, Maryland citizens voiced their opposition to rewarding illegal immigrants with in-state tuition benefits. Legislators were inundated with phone calls, e-mails, and letters from constituents. These legislators put off the legislation until this year with the hope that they could quietly put through the legislation without much opposition.

Dr. Jim Pelura, Chairman of the Maryland Republican Party, released the following statement:

“It is a terrible commentary on the O’Malley Administration and the Democrat leadership that they would rather fund in-state tuition discounts for illegal immigrants than to fund our state police. They are cutting funding for those who enforce the laws and increasing the funding for those who break the laws. Where are their priorities?

“House Bill 1236 and Senate Bill 591 would grant in-state tuition benefits to those who have willfully broken the law and would provide illegal immigrants rights not even afforded to U.S. citizens. In addition, if this legislation becomes law, Maryland families would have to compete with illegal immigrants for the limited number of in-state tuition slots. Plain and simple – that is wrong.

“Democrats in the General Assembly should stop this foolishness. Governor O’Malley should stand on the side of the rule of law and announce that he will veto House Bill 1236, Senate Bill 591, or any similar legislation that would qualify illegal immigrants for in-state tuition rates. O’Malley should restore funding for our state police and get his priorities right.”

In the interest of fairness, I went to the Democrats’ website to see what they had to say about the matter:

I thought with all those sponsors and Governor O’Malley’s support, they’d be happy to justify their bill. But I suppose not.

Of course, it might not be a bad idea to have a word with those on the Ways and Means Committee about this bill. The General Assembly main phone number is (800) 492-7122, and the Delegates’ 4-digit extension follows their name. Their committee’s roster of Delegates is as follows:

Delegate Sheila Hixson, Chair (3469)
Delegate Ann Marie Doory, Vice-Chair (3476)
Delegate Joe Bartlett (3080)
Delegate Kumar Barve, Majority Leader (3464)
Delegate Jon Cardin (3833)
Delegate Page Elmore (3433)
Delegate Bill Frick (3454)
Delegate Ron George (3439)
Delegate James Gilchrist (3744)
Delegate Carolyn Howard (3919)
Delegate Jolene Ivey (3478)
Delegate J.B. Jennings (3698)
Delegate Anne Kaiser (3036)
Delegate Susan Krebs (3200)
Delegate Peter Murphy (3247)
Delegate John Olszewski (3458)
Delegate Craig Rice (3090)
Delegate Justin Ross (3652)
Delegate Melvin Stukes (3544)
Delegate Frank Turner (3246)
Delegate Jay Walker (3581)

For e-mail the format for each is (firstname).(lastname)@house.state.md.us – that’s how I’ll have my say. We’ll see how these folks respond.

Will Tuesday be the end?

Sometimes the conventional wisdom is so incorrect it’s not funny. In the runup to the primary season the consensus opinion was that the Republican side could go all the way to the convention as Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani were thought to be the party standardbearers, with Fred Thompson having an outside chance. John McCain was a walking dead man in the campaign. Meanwhile, this was the coronation walk for Hillary Clinton and she’d have things pretty much in hand after Super Tuesday.

We all know what happened next. On the GOP side, Iowa brought a shocking victory for Mike Huckabee but then John McCain ran off a string of victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and finally Florida. The Sunshine State win dashed Rudy Giuliani’s hopes, and despite a series of caucus victories out west combined with wins in Massachusetts and Michigan, Mitt Romney ceded the nomination after Super Tuesday. Only Mike Huckabee and longshot Ron Paul remain in the GOP race, but unless something unthinkable happens John McCain will have come back from the political death predicted after the amnesty bill failed to seize his party’s nod for November.

The voters on the Democratic side have also confounded the standard prediction of Hillary Clinton waltzing to the nomination. Sure, she was stunned in Iowa by Barack Obama but her side claimed they didn’t really campaign out there until late in the game, and all seemed right with the world after the Clinton win in New Hampshire. Surely things would now return to the track of another two for one deal in the White House.

However, something happened on the way to the station for Hillary Clinton and now her back is against the wall. There are two theories as to why this is happening.

The first theory has to do with the race card. Bill Clinton went all over South Carolina lowering expectations for Hillary by noting the black vote would go to Obama, so if she didn’t win there it was because the black voters wouldn’t pull the lever for a white woman while a black man was in the race. This pitting of race on race proved to assure that states would split on more or less racial lines for Super Tuesday but may have cost Hillary dearly in the February 12 primaries. Maryland and Virginia may have gone Hillary’s way had those remarks not been made, but the minority vote fell in behind Barack Obama in a huge way after Bill’s statements.

But to me the more plausible theory comes from organization. Because Hillary thought she had a pretty clear path to the nomination her campaign strategy neglected a number of caucus states, particularly those in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain region. While there’s not as many delegates per state out there in the hinterlands as in the delegate-rich states Hillary has won such as California and New York, picking up 2 or 3 caucus states neutralizes the effect Hillary had in winning the bigger prizes. And the Democrat rules about proportionally giving out delegates (instead of several winner-take-all states like the GOP has) enabled Barack Obama to hang in the race until the Chesapeake primaries, a point where he took control of the nomination by winning three states and maintaining a streak of victories that’s now reached double digits.

Thus, the March 4 primary states of Ohio and Texas (with Vermont and Rhode Island playing supporting roles) appear to be the final chance for Hillary Clinton to get back the coronation she was likely expecting to happen a month ago. (If memory serves me correctly, the first week of March was Super Tuesday in the last election cycle. It’s amazing how far back the process has jumped.) You have to wonder when she’ll throw in the towel if she loses the two biggest prizes left on the docket (with apologies to our friends to the north in Pennsylvania) simply because it’ll dry up a lot of her donor base if she’s not perceived to have a chance. I know, never count the Clintons out.

And her argument to the superdelegates that would decide the nomination would be one where she has carried fewer states, but thus far she’s carried more of the “blue” 2004 states that she would be likely to win (worth 134 electoral votes) than Obama has (worth 83 electoral votes.) Much of Obama’s delegate strength, she could argue, comes from a number of states the Democrats stand little chance of taking.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens to be sure, but I feel that unless Barack Obama wins in both Texas and Ohio Hillary Clinton will stay in. All I have to say is let ’em fight it out.

Once again, from the top

Maybe it’s a case of sarcasm going over MY head (it happens sometimes), but apparently Joe Albero didn’t get my argument on the fallacy of global warming a couple posts ago – much ado about nothing from the Maryland General Assembly. I know he’s a semi-retired businessman and “reporter” (in quotes because he states right up top that his site is “opinionated only”) while I graduated from college having taken a course or two in writing, so let me see if I can boil it down to three sentences.

A group of scientists theorize through careful observation and reviewing historical data that the earth is cooling because of lower solar activity – with this winter’s weather globally bearing the theory out in the short term.
Al Gore, who is not a scientist, and another group of “experts”, only some of whom are scientists, posit that the earth is warming due to increased CO2 caused solely by manmade activity, but climatological evidence gathered over the last few years shows little change – even a slight decrease – in global temperatures.
Even with evidence pointing toward the opposite direction, as a solution to “global warming” the Maryland General Assembly still wants to plunge the state into drastic measures that would curtail commerce and create soaring electrical rates.

Is that a little easier to understand, Joe? I made it in 123 words, which is a little less than I’m asked to do on occasion for other outlets.

To me, good commentary is that which uses examples to buttress the main argument being made. In the literary world, this can take the form of a book as in one of my favorite volumes, Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged. Or it can be a shorter essay or column, such as those written on a regular basis by Ann Coulter, Mark Steyn, or Michelle Malkin. (Each of these writers have full-length books to their credit as well.) I can’t say I yet have the ability to write as well as those three, but I look at this outlet as practice, practice, practice. It may not get me to Carnegie Hall but hopefully it can provide me with a way to work toward a longer-form setting of some type. It’s also why I do a variety of post types – some with pictures, some as reporting, some as observations on what others wrote.

And I attempt to add a little humor once in awhile. Obviously I saw Joe today at the Andy Harris event I broke on Monday. (Had he come to our WCRC meeting that night, he would’ve gotten the flyer too. Frankly, I was surprised he hadn’t, but I found out from another that Joe was a bit perturbed about being scooped!) So I had to ask him why he only ranked monoblogue as “the most boring blog in Maryland.” It would’ve brought me much more notoriety to call mine the most boring blog in America! Might as well go all the way. Besides, you can call me boring, but at least I spell practically everything correctly including my last name.

All because I didn’t link to him someplace along the line. Well, I just did above so be happy that I pumped up your BlogNetNews rating.

Oh, and the comments to his post were priceless, especially the ones about internet porn and being boring and obnoxious. Yep, anonymous comments that were all placed in about 10 minutes. Someone had too much time on his hands. While I’ve learned in my life that I definitely march to a different drummer than most, if I came across to you as boring and obnoxious Mr. anonymous, it might be because I found you to be an arrogant prick. My kid loves me and that’s what really matters.

On the other hand, thanks to Elbert for the kind words. He figured it out. I can’t write more slowly, so I suppose the rest of you will have to do your homework and catch up like he did.