As expected, the local blogosphere (at least the four “major” blogs) seem to be united behind a Spies/Cohen/Smith ticket for tomorrow – in essence, a Crisfield-style “clean sweep”.
But there needs to be some notes of caution here. While the Salisbury blogging world is very optimistic about the outcome tomorrow, there’s some facts that can’t be ignored.
- Most people get their news from the Daily Times. In some ways, Sunday’s article about the difficulty being re-elected from District 2 makes Gary Comegys a sympathetic figure, particularly in the way it cited the local blogs as a divisive issue. And where have most of the negative comments and news come from regarding Comegys? You guessed it.
- A good point was made by one of the StoryChat commenters on the DT piece, noting that for all of the hullabaloo over the write-in candidacy of Charles Jannace (particularly at its inception in September and carrying into early October), it garnered only a few hundred votes, just a low-single digit percentage.
- The local blogosphere is still fairly parochial and there’s not a whole lot of readers who actually live in District 2 and can vote in the race. In fact, I believe Cato at Delmarva Dealings is the only one of us four who can actually vote. While 6% of people actually read the blogs (according to the Fox poll I cited the other day), we have to remember that not all are unified behind the trio we selected.
- Also, unlike the primary where many of the voters only voted for three candidates when they were allowed six, there’s only three allowed choices in the general election. So the “bullet voting” that occurred in the primary will be diluted somewhat.
- Last and certainly not least, those who remember the primary night results also recall that Gary Comegys was fourth in the primary originally, but moved up to third after the absentees were counted. So it must be assumed that the absentee ballots, which are generally cast by older voters who have never heard of a weblog and wouldn’t believe one if they had, are going to make a difference in this race.
I suppose one other question I have is a hypothetical one. Despite the primary election results, what if SAPOA bullies their renters into voting for a Atkins/Ewalt/Comegys ticket en masse and those three carry the day? Does Debbie Campbell have the stomach to go through another two years of being on the losing side of 4-1 margins? Knowing her, I think she would stay on regardless, but it is interesting food for thought as we turn in tonight and await the tallying of the ballots tomorrow evening.
My prediction for the whole thing is that Debbie won’t be in a 4-1 margin either way after all is said and done. It will be good to see her on the winning side for a change, but it won’t be good enough to override what may become a constant stream of mayoral vetoes.