If there was ever an argument for the Electoral College, Maryland provides it.
There were four statewide races, and here are the (still-unofficial) totals for the races as a whole. For the purposes of this post, I’m excluding minor party and write-in candidates in my percentages.
Governor:
O’Malley/Brown (D) 923,991 – 53.1%
Ehrlich/Cox (R) 815,776 – 46.9%
Comptroller:
Peter Franchot (D) 997,524 – 58.9%
Anne McCarthy (R) 695,633 – 41.1%
Attorney General:
Douglas Gansler (D) 1,023,801 – 60.9%
Scott Rolle (R) 658,083 – 39.1%
U.S. Senator:
Ben Cardin (D) 947,174 – 54.9%
Michael Steele (R) 777,614 – 45.1%
Now, let’s imagine for a moment that the votes from three jurisdictions were tossed out – Prince George’s and Montgomery counties, and Baltimore City. Here are your new revised results.
Governor:
Ehrlich/Cox (R) 631,775 – 57.4%
O’Malley/Brown (D) 469,619 – 42.6%
Comptroller:
Anne McCarthy (R) 546,101 – 51.1%
Peter Franchot (D) 521,576 – 48.9%
Attorney General:
Scott Rolle (R) 531,271 – 50.2%
Douglas Gansler (D) 527,880 – 49.8%
U.S. Senator:
Michael Steele (R) 601,529 – 55.2%
Ben Cardin (D) 488,766 – 44.8%
Put another way, as an absolute percentage of votes the Democrats got from those three jurisdictions:
O’Malley 49.2%
Franchot 47.7%
Gansler 48.4%
Cardin 48.4%
And if you thought the 98-43 Democrat edge in the House of Delegates was bad, in the new term it will balloon to a whopping 105-36 bulge. Those three Democrat strongholds either elect or help to elect a total of 66 Delegates, and the tally for those 22 districts – 66 Democrats, 0 Republicans. (There may be 1 Republican to make it 65-1 if Del. Jean Cryor of Montgomery County can make up about 120 votes in the remaining count.) The rest of the state has a 39-36 Democrat edge.
In the State Senate, the Democrats will keep their exact numbers from the last session, it’s still 33-14 Democrat. Of course, all 22 of those districts in question have Democrat senators, otherwise the GOP would hold a 14-11 advantage.
What this proves is the value of the Electoral College nationwide. Here in Maryland three geographic locations dictate the affairs of the other 21. It seems to me that what we have now is not the state of Maryland (and certainly not the Free State) but rather the monarchy of Prince Baltigomery.
Looking at things this way, it appears the GOP has an all-but-impossible task in making this even a competitive state. But we have four years to begin educating the outstaters first. It almost has to become an “us vs. them” mentality.
For example, getting the 13 outstate counties (Eastern Shore + Western Maryland) to a consistent 70% GOP vote would make a serious dent in the Prince Baltigomery advantage – if that area can be 70% Democrat we can certainly make “our” area 70% GOP. Then it would come down to getting the metropolitan exurbs to enough of a split, which is doable. Had this 70-30 split happened for the outstate counties (maintaining the votes in the Prince Baltigomery area and adding the GOP votes as above) based on the vote totals for O’Malley plus Ehrlich, these would have been the results.
Outstate: GOP 201,071; Dems 86,173 (70-30 vote split).
Prince Baltigomery: Dems 454,372; GOP 184,001 (actual votes, 71.2% Democrat)
This leaves a deficit of 155,473 votes. However, there were 814,150 votes cast in what I call the exurb area around Baltimore and in Southern Maryland. That area needs to split 60/40 GOP – if it does, then these are their results.
Exurbs: GOP 488,490; Dems 325,660 (GOP 60-40 split).
Total: GOP 873,562; Dems 866,205.
That may seem hard to fathom, but there’s not a lot of improvement needed in those exurb counties. These are the actual 2006 Ehrlich percentages for those localities:
Carroll 69.9%
Harford 63.4%
St. Mary’s 58.2%
Calvert 57.2%
Anne Arundel 56.9%
Baltimore County 50.9%
Howard 49.2%
Charles 47.7%
As it was, the total worked out to almost a dead even 55%. In most instances, the 2006 Ehrlich vote ran 5-10% behind his 2002 totals so 60% GOP voting is a very attainable goal for 2010. In turn, this may begin to crack that stranglehold that the Democrats have on the General Assembly, at least enough to give any future Republican governor an override-proof minority.
But for the next four years, we belong to the fiefdom of Prince Baltigomery. Now is the time to start planning the overthrow at the ballot box.
I think the first step as a party is to decide what solutions we have to the key issues that face our state. To help, I’m going to do a post in the next few days with some ideas on how to do just that.
Land shouldn’t get a say. It’s the people who should. That more of them happen to live in one county than another doesn’t invalidate the basic premise of democracy–that barring violations to individual liberty spelled out in the bill of rights and other similar documents, the majority rules.
I dont understand your thinking…. In Maryland…we count every vote… Just because some counties are bigger than others… Why is it a problem….
O’Malley we all have to admit got more votes… Should it really matter how many counties he won?
Aaaaahhhh…I knew that would get the lefties all riled up.
But both of you should bear in mind something you said for future reference:
Stephanie – “barring violations to individual liberty spelled out in the bill of rights and other similar documents, the majority rules.” Hopefully you had the same thoughts two years ago and weren’t part of the “Bush stole the election” crowd that’s STILL out there.
TrueBlue – “In Maryland…we count every vote…” Does that imply that other areas do not? It seems to me that the only places the “not every vote was counted” complaint comes up are places where the GOP wins close elections (see above.)
It’s obvious to me that, despite my votes to the contrary, Maryland decided to become even more of a Democrat state than it already was. Personally, I think that’s foolish but for the time being I have the right to my opinion.
This post came from two factors. On the Eastern Shore, many feel that Annapolis simply ignores their pressing needs because we’re such a small area populationwise and state government only concerns itself with the Prince Baltigomery area because it’s the voter base.
Secondly I personally feel that the governmental principles embodied in conservatism would do much more for Maryland as a whole than the big-government, throw money at the problem solutions espoused by O’Malley and company, which enrich the few and keep the many at bare sustinence or slightly above. In general those ideas are shared by the Republican Party and where they don’t share them it’s easier to move them in the proper direction (I call it the 80% rule.)
Perhaps you believe that government solves all ills. I do not subscribe to that theory.
Ahhhhhh, you want me to relive almost a decade of election angst, do you? Very well. It will probably amuse you.
During the election debacle in Florida in 2000 I was pretty disenchanted at the usual characters, Katherine Harris, the Preppy Rioters, and the Supreme Court. Al Gore had won the popular vote (and the state of Florida by my reckoning), and the will of the people was being thwarted. I thought Bush stole that election, and I can’t say that I thought of him as more than an accident of the electoral college. I don’t think I referred to him as “President Bush” during his first term. But I wasn’t heartbroken.
Heartbreak was reserved for 2004.
There may have been election irregularities and possibly even fraud in Ohio, but ultimately that didn’t matter. Barring atrocious and extremely risky election fraud on the part of Diebold, the popular vote went to George Bush. He was no longer an accident of the electoral college, in my mind, but the people’s choice. I had to call him President Bush.
And that was heartbreaking 😉
I agree–21 jurisdictions in the State are massively disadvantaged by the rule of three. What’s scary is that it appears Montgomery County is in charge. And what that means is a) people who make six-figure salaries at the government teat and who have no understanding of how the median income earner gets by will be making decisions for all of us on tax and other important policy issues, and (more scarily) b) it’s not really even Montgomery County, but it’s the teachers’ union which will be deciding things (look at their influence in MoCo).
Unfortunately, this is where Ehrlich really screwed the state (and us). He plucked a lot of Republicans out of the General Assembly, which removed a lot of people with experience and name recognition from future possibilities. Granted, many/most of these people weren’t world-beaters (to say the least), but they were the bench. It will be quite a while (if ever) before that can be replaced. Instead of pulling a bunch of legislators out, Ehrlich should have filled his secretary and deputy secretary positions with competent (and preferably young) conservatives, from Maryland or elsewhere, which could have really built the party.
So this leaves us with, by my count, about three viable Republicans with any sort of statewide name recognition–Steele, Pipkin, and maybe DiPaula. Steele will almost certainly be the gubernatorial nominee in 2010, if he doesn’t run for Mikulski’s seat, for which DiPaula, if he’s still in the state, could be a good candidate. Would Ehrlich run for that seat? Pipkin has got to be kicking himself for not running for Comptroller, as had been rumored a bit before the filing deadline. He may have been able to beat Franchot, but may not be able to beat an incumbent.
I think Republicans are well and truly screwed, and Ehrlich (and Kane) are to a large degree responsible.
There is NO rule of three… There is a rule of whoever gets more votes wins… It is that simple..
Look at KKT 4 years ago… She won the 3 big counties and she lost the election… So if you really believe that land votes…. then KKT should have been governor!
Actually, I’m conceding the Prince Baltigomery area to the Democrats for the short-to-midrange future. My point is that my side needs to work on the rest of the state because IMHO it’s to the benefit of those residents to agree with conservative principles in state government as well as the federal government, and it goes in with my 80% rule.
And if you compare how Ehrlich 2002 did vs. Ehrlich 2006, you’ll find that he lost share in all 23 counties plus Baltimore City, and lost over 10% of his share in 17 of them. He got killed in Baltimore County, for example, losing over 20% of his share (61.2% to 50.9%). The closest he came in any county to maintaining 2002 numbers was losing 1.5% here in Wicomico County and, even better, dropping just 0.4% in adjacent Worcester County.
After seeing those numbers, it convinced me that many on the Shore supported Ehrlich because they perceived that he at least gave a rat’s about the Eastern Shore as opposed to many of the Democrat administrations beforehand. The key for my party is to solidify this base and work in toward the center, as the Democrats managed to expand their base into the “exurb” counties this time around and pick off enough votes from areas where Governor Ehrlich was more successful against KKT.
And the reverse was true in 1994 vs. 2002…where Sauerbrey “lost” the election in Baltimore City, she also didn’t do as well in the outstate area. That few points gained there by Ehrlich in 2002 was enough to carry him.
Can you tell I’m sort of a numbers freak?