It’s been an unusual election cycle thus far, and an upset victory in Illinois may give Republicans cause for concern. On Saturday Democrat Bill Foster won a special election to replace former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, who resigned late last year. He defeated perennial candidate Jim Oberweis by grabbing 53% of the vote in the district, which spans westward from Chicago’s suburbs.
So we’ve seen a Democrat victory in what was thought to be a pretty “safe” GOP district, in an election that even political expert Robert Novak predicted would keep the seat in Republican hands. (He did include a disclaimer about a low turnout possibly affecting results, and turnout was quite small.)
But as I sit here tonight in what’s supposed to be a “safe” GOP district, there are things that make me wonder about the upcoming Congressional election in November.
Blogger ShoreIndie correctly points out that Andy Harris did not win the counties on the Eastern Shore against Wayne Gilchrest, while the quite moderate Republican who posts the Mainstream Shore website talks about “thoughtful” Republicans who are supporting Frank Kratovil. (I don’t think ShoreIndie, who she includes in that number, is a Republican though.)
A further complication may come from an announcement yesterday about a Libertarian candidate entering the race. Dr. Richard J. Davis of Hurlock touted his candidacy in a Daily Times editorial. While it’s not likely he’ll gather a large percentage of the vote, it could affect a close race. (If and when Dr. Davis gets a website, I’ll link to it.)
And it’s obvious that Frank Kratovil’s strategy will be to run only slightly to the left of Andy Harris in an attempt to pick up the moderate Wayne Gilchrest voters, possibly even receiving the endorsement of the soon-to-be-former Congressman. This strategy paid off handsomely for Democrats in 2006, as several candidates won by running as centrists who occasionally would veer right-of-center on some issues. For Kratovil, running this way would sew up the conservative Democrats who inhabit our area moreso than most, while Democrats who are more liberal would be somewhat dissatisfied with Kratovil but would pull the lever anyway out of party loyalty. Moreover, where Gilchrest won with independents, assuming the philosophy of Wayne as much as possible would bring voters to the Kratovil side. This is the way Wayne won his seat so often, but in the reverse party scenario – conservative Republicans would hold their nose and vote for him lest the Democrats pick up the seat.
Kratovil has also gotten a lot of help from friendly press coverage, and I would expect that to continue. The brutal campaign on the GOP side further buttressed the effort as the three main candidates trashed one another for several months. And as long as Frank can run a stealth campaign and control his own message, he has a chance to succeed in this race.
The crux of this campaign will be whether Andy Harris can place Frank Kratovil on record as to how he would vote on certain issues. In this Harris has to be the aggressor, even though it could alienate a number of voters who didn’t care for his tactics in the primary. When there is no legislative record to speak of, a blank slate if you will, success will depend on how well that slate is filled and by whom. Here are some things we don’t know about Frank Kratovil:
- Would he work to extend the Bush tax cuts, or vote with the rest of his party to increase our taxes drastically by allowing them to expire in 2-3 years?
- Is he pro-life or pro-abortion?
- While we know that Frank considers the conflict in Iraq a “civil war”, how would he continue the fight against Islamic terrorism?
- Along the same lines, does he support our efforts in Afghanistan?
- What sort of policies would he advocate to secure our energy independence, subsidies for unproven and expensive technology or creating jobs through further exploration and refining of the resources we have?
- How about Second Amendment rights?
These are just a few of the questions where Frank Kratovil needs to be put on record regarding the solutions he supports. And something tells me that the right-of-center rhetoric he espouses will be shown as simply lip service to attract votes – the real Frank Kratovil will just be a “yes man” for those things Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton wish to do to us in Washington.
It’s those little digs that really get me. Is anyone really pro-abortion?
Would you rather have had me say anti-fetus?
If people on my side have to be called racist because we don’t favor affirmative action, then the liberal side can deal with being called pro-abortion if they support so-called reproductive rights.
Michael,
I’m not sure where to start with your post other than to say that Richard J. Davis is a ray of sunshine in the race. Anytime that people who are gainfully employed in the real world throw their hat into the political ring it is a good thing. Lifetime politicians are exactly what our founding fathers did NOT want and an underlying problem in our government today.
Let’s run down the line on your six bullet points and perhaps you will end up admitting that while you MAY be a Republican who is infatuated with the right vs. left debate, you are NOT a NEOCON, although you are being conned into thinking exactly that you are.
-what have the Bush tax cuts done for you? Exactly?
-has Bush changed anything about the legalized murder of the unborn?
-How is the US being in Irag winning the so called “war on terror”
-Afghanistan, ok, this one I give him, but how can it be that we still don’t know where Osama is/was?
-Bush is making billions for the oil companies while giving lip service to ag, meanwhile ADM / Cargill are cleaning up on GMO by having our seed stock prices go through the roof, meanwhile Maryland/Delaware can’t even agree to get a wind farm built, in summation, what has Bush done for OUR energy independence other than place far off pipe dream timelines, just like slick Willy did with his hydrogen infrastructure lip service, consider JFK’s bold statement, I want a man on the moon in four years, make it happen.
-On the second, again, ok, this one I give him, we have held our own, but we haven’t gained any ground. How are all those gun free safe school zones working out for us? In Switzerland, a teacher can carry a handgun if they go through the training and choose to do so. Would that have helped at Columbine or VPI?
The bottom line for me?
Incumbents out!
What am I asking of you? Mike, just consider that the Bush Neoconservatism is destroying our economy and the very fiber of our base. Our future path does not lie with the Republican movement, (Neo-Fascists) or with the Democrats (neo-socialists)
A new movement is required, one that CAN and MUST rob disenfranchised voters from both sides of the aisle, Libertarian, eehh, not exactly, Green party, eeehhh not exactly.
http://www.constitutionparty.com/
AAHhhhhh……………
Did Frank Kratovil call your side racist? Has every Democrat called your side racist? Activists on both sides seem quick to try and lump candidates in a narrow category of far left or right. I think the often talked about polarization of politics can be attributed to this all or nothing philosophy. I judge Andy Harris on his actions. Kratovil doesn’t have a legislative record to study, but I don’t see the need to start your assumptions at the extreme.
AverageJoe:
Unless something has changed in the last few days, the Constitution Party isn’t recognized in Maryland. They were for the 2006 election, but lost their certification because they didn’t get enough votes. I think they have to submit a petition with 10,000 signatures to qualify as a minor party again.
ShoreThings:
The point of my argument was precisely that we don’t know where Frank stands yet on many important issues. I simply picked out a number of issues that I know resonate for those of us who have the conservative bent.