I sort of warned you about this back when I inducted the Class of 2018 into the Shorebird of the Week Hall of Fame. Membership in that body has reached the magic number of forty, and given the facts that the Hot Stove League is well underway and people always like to speculate about how they would build a team… well, now I have a team, of sorts.
Of course, there are a fair share of guys in my Hall of Fame who aren’t involved as players anymore, but the beauty of the intersection of fantasy baseball with sabermetrics is that people are able to compare performances over time. I’m not going to get too fussy with this exercise, for its goal is to speculate how a team made up of SotWHoF players would do in a regular season and (in my opinion) the best way to do this is to compile the player’s WAR (wins above replacement) statistics. Every player in the SotWHoF has these, although those who are still active maintain a fluid WAR rating that will change as their career progresses.
Wins above replacement is a complex formula that determines how much impact a player has on his team’s fortunes. A MVP-type player would have a seasonal WAR of 8 to 10, meaning his presence on the team assures the squad eight to ten more wins than the average replacement. Take two extreme examples of 2018 teams: in the left column are the world champion Boston Red Sox (108-54 during the regular season) and on the right are the woeful Orioles (47-115).
|2018 WAR||Boston||Pos.||Baltimore||2018 WAR|
|-0.5||S. Leon||C||C. Joseph||0.3|
|0.9||M. Moreland||1B||C. Davis||-2.8|
|-1.1||E. Nunez||2B||J. Schoop||1.3*|
|3.8||X. Bogaerts||SS||M. Machado||2.9*|
|0||R. Devers||3B||R. Nunez||1.2*|
|2.1||J. Bradley||CF||A. Jones||0.2|
|10.9||M. Betts||RF||J. Rickard||0.4|
|6.4||J.D. Martinez||DH||M. Trumbo||0.3|
|3.3||R. Porcello||SP||D. Bundy||0.1|
|4.4||D. Price||SP||A. Cashner||0.6|
|6.9||C. Sale||SP||A. Cobb||1.1|
|3||E. Rodriguez||SP||K. Gausman||2.2*|
|0.8*||N. Eovaldi||SP||D. Hess||0.7|
|2.3||C. Kimbrel||CL||B. Brach||0*|
|1.7||H. Velazquez||RP||M. Castro||1.3|
|0.5||J. Kelly||RP||M. Wright||-0.1|
|1.1||M. Barnes||RP||M. Givens||1|
|0.5||H. Hembree||RP||T. Scott||-0.1|
|50.9||Total WAR||Pos.||Total WAR||10.5|
(*) Totals with Boston or Baltimore only.
As you can see, while a few individual players held the Red Sox back in terms of not being better than a theoretical player replacing him from the minor leagues, there were also several who put up All-Star and MVP-caliber seasons (with 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts leading the way.) On the flip side, the Orioles had a batch of players who were hardly better than minor league players and one much worse – Chris Davis, we’re looking at you. And once the key players for Baltimore were traded away, their replacements couldn’t even achieve the passable numbers put up by those who were traded – bear in mind that there are perhaps 25-35 players not listed who were bench players, minor league callups, and so forth. Some would accrue more wins above their replacements and others would lose ground – those listed above are just the primary starters and most-used bullpen pieces. Adding in the other 25 Red Sox players increases their WAR total by 6.1 wins above replacement for a team total of 57, while adding in the other 37 (!) Oriole players gains them o.8 WAR for a total of 11.3.
So now you have an idea of the parameters I’m going to use for this exercise. Next week I’m going to re-introduce you to this 40-man roster and speculate on how it would work if put together in fantasy life.