Lately in this time slot (Thursday afternoon) I’ve been putting Shorebirds news on monoblogue, but today we’ll return to politics. This came across my desk thanks to Dave Parker:
Kratovil and Dougherty Catching Democratic Wave
The “Rules” Have Changed: Democrats Take Back 3rd “Safe” GOP Seat
Democrats Win Special Elections in the Midwest, the Deep South; Maryland is Next
Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District is now back in Democratic hands after yet another special election to fill a so-called “safe” Republican House seat. The latest shockwave to rip through the political landscape follows Democratic congressional victories in Illinois and Louisiana. All three elections took place in districts long held by Republicans (IL 14th – 69 years, LA 6th – 33 years, MS 1st – 12 years) and where George Bush held impressive margins of victory in 2004 (IL 14th – 55%, LA 6th – 59%, MS – 62%).
A statement from Michael Cryor, Chair of the Maryland Democratic Party:
“Throw out the rules of political conventionality. There are very few safe Republican seats in America anymore; not in the Midwest, not in the deep South and certainly not in a blue Mid-Atlantic state such as Maryland. It doesn’t matter how long a Republican has held the seat. It doesn’t matter how many votes George Bush got in 2004, America is voting for change in 2008. America is voting Democratic.
Frank Kratovil and Jennifer Dougherty are the right candidates to shatter the notion that Maryland’s 1st and 6th Districts belong to the GOP. That’s a false assumption that no longer applies, especially as we challenge two extremist Republicans who have voted for and endorsed the Bush agenda on the war, the economy and the environment.
With Frank and Jennifer – two exceptional public servants and very strong candidates – the Maryland Democratic Party will ‘Make it 8 in ’08’ as we continue to build our grassroots effort and organize in the east and the west like never before.
The challenges are great. Bush took Maryland 1st District with 62 percent of the vote and the 6th with 60 percent. But the rules have changed and this is the year and these are the candidates who will “Make it Eight in ’08” for Maryland.”
Yes, I’m bringing you Democrat propaganda. Hopefully you didn’t lose your lunch.
There are some differences though between the three races Cryor’s press release cites and the two contests for remaining Republican seats here in Maryland.
First of all, while both Frank Kratovil in the First District and Jennifer Dougherty in the Sixth District may have some positions in common with their GOP opponents they both depart in important and troubling ways as well. Both favor diplomacy over victory in Iraq and placing the federal government in charge of health care coverage, making coverage mandatory and eliminating choices you may wish to make. Meanwhile, neither of the duo seem willing to extend the Bush tax cuts but both claim to want “fiscal responsibility”, thus I’m led to assume that they’d favor both spending and taxes increasing if they were elected to Congress – after all, universal health coverage, like any other entitlement program, will not come cheaply and the cost will dig into everyone’s pocket.
While Cryor may have a point regarding change in Maryland’s Sixth District because the 81-year-old incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett managed to win his primary, First District GOP voters sent a different message of change by selecting a much more conservative Republican in Andy Harris. Moreover, while Frank Kratovil attempts to run to the center and is getting cover from a few disgruntled employees and supporters of deposed Congressman Wayne Gilchrest, the truth is we really don’t know much about Frank on a number of issues and, given the vacuum, a good politician and his supporters will define Frank before he can define himself. He has no voting record to dissect so it’s only his word that he’ll be strong on issues that the First District cares about.
The Maryland Democrat Party also seems to forget that they’re holding the governor’s chair right now, and sitting in that chair is one of the more despised political figures that the average voter in Congressional Districts 1 and 6 have seen, Martin O’Malley. Yes, he of the huge tax and spending increases, rubberstamped by the Democrats in the General Assembly over the objections of many of the Delegates and Senators that these two Congressional districts have sent to Annapolis. If O’Malley was such a great guy, why would Frank Kratovil take down all of the pictures his website once featured of him and the Governor – along with O’Malley’s endorsement? Andy Harris has no such fear of being associated with the much more popular former Governor Ehrlich.
Lastly, a special election with a tiny turnout is a far cry from what promises to be a November election with a lot of controversy. Two Constitutional Amendments are on the ballot and both should bring a number of conservative voters to the polls, even if they’re not terribly excited about the GOP’s standard-bearer. And if all the Democrats have to throw at John McCain is to claim he’s a third term of President Bush, presumptive nominee Barack Obama is not doing much to excite the voters in the middle, either.
I will grant Cryor one point, his party will probably win the next special election in Maryland’s Fourth District. That’s going to be the last area to come to its senses and vote for conservative leadership.
So don’t let Cryor’s May enthusiasm disspirit Republicans, because we have a long way to go and a lot is yet to be revealed about the Democrat contenders. Besides, if we really want to bring about change, there’s a party in Maryland who owns six Congressional seats, part of a majority in Congress that has seen the economy go into the tank on its watch and has done nothing to bring down the prices of gasoline and groceries. Of course, that may be because the benefits of free-market economics, maintaining a low tax rate, and cutting the size and scope of government are lost on them – while the Republicans eventually lost their way as the majority because they forgot these lessons, at least they were learned at one time.
As for my usual Thursday afternoon subject, the Shorebirds begin an eight-game homestand against Greensboro and Kannapolis tomorrow night, hoping to pick up ground on division-leading Lake County in the process. I will have a Shorebird of the Week later this evening.
Rick Moran at American Thinker also weighed in on the three GOP defeats, so you get bonus commentary from him too.
You make some good points, but we Republicans in the First District should not assume that just because this is a GOP district that Harris will roll to victory. Bush is hugely unpopular (even among Republicans) and that is going to drive both the Presidential and Congressional race. A lot of conservatives either hate or are very unenthusiastic about McCain, so they may not bother to show up on election day (plus, Maryland is going Democratic, so votes for McCain aren’t going to matter much anyway). With Obama as the Democratic nominee there will be a very large turnout of the Democratic base. And, of course, there are still lingering hard feelings among Gilchrest supporters.
I think Harris will win this race but only if those of us who support him don’t assume that he’s already got it in the bag.
I’m not so sure I’d write Maryland off just yet for John McCain; however, your point is well taken. You are correct in observing that the level of turnout for conservative voters will go a long way to determining how well Harris does on this side of the bay.
I’m confident Harris will do well but he can’t just assume a coronation because the Democrats are loaded for bear. It would be nice to have something to celebrate on Election Day, that something being to send a solid conservative Republican to Congress.
Perhaps you’re still a little pumped up from all the rhetoric from the state Republican convention, but there is no way McCain will win Maryland. As you know full well from the WCRC meetings, he has little enthusiasm among the base. And with Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket there will be a huge turnout among African Americans in the state as well as the limousine liberals in Montgomery County. I’ll be shocked if Obama receives less than 55% of the state’s vote.
I didn’t say it was likely, I just said don’t concede the state yet. Obama may make this a racial election and in the process turn off a lot of the working-class white Democrats – the ones who have voted for Hillary Clinton.
Peggy Noonan’s column in the Wall St. Journal really hits it on the head (more like ‘slaps it in the face’)
Many Republicans have been smug and assume many things that just aren’t true. The execution of a conservative platform has been replaced with a marketing campaign.
Most of the party bigwigs still don’t get it. They’re talking like conservatives, but acting like liberals, and they think nobody’s paying attention.
They think everybody’s just going to stick with the ‘brand’.
They’re very wrong, as is becoming evident.
Here’s Peggy Noonan’s take on it (if I may, Michael..) it’s a must-read.
http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html
You’re too smart to believe that Congress has any control over oil prices, and I know that your readers won’t buy that either. Republicans held the majority in Congress for six of the last seven years, so you can hardly blame the sum total of fiscal problems on the current majority. The problems are a big reason why the Democrats now hold the majority. Congress does have some control over food prices, and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison recently introduced legislation to pause the biofuel mandates that are driving corn prices up. The mandates are so ridiculous that even if we used the entire US corn crop for ethanol, that still wouldn’t be enough to meet the biofuel targets. But this is an election year, so it will be impossible to take anything away from those Iowa farmers.