NFL playoff update: week 17

Well, the Giants won tonight so I can hit the old delete feature on a couple games which are now only for pride.

The dominoes will start to fall tonight as the NFL season comes to an exciting close. With 20 teams either secured a playoff spot or still alive for the postseason, it’s amazing that currently 14 of the 16 games have a bearing on the playoff picture – the only exceptions being Cleveland at Houston (both teams are eliminated) and Seattle at Tampa Bay (Seattle is set as #4 seed in the NFC because they have a worse conference record than Philadelphia even if both finish 9-7 – 7-5 vs. 8-4 for the Eagles. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was eliminated weeks ago.)

Tomorrow night’s matchup begins the weekend and has the potential to make many of the other games meaningless if the result is correct. Because it’s on the (cable-only) NFL Network, I’m not sure if there will also be a free TV outlet in the area. We live within the “home area” for the Redskins and the game’s a sellout. So this time I’m going in game order rather than seeding order.

New York Giants (7-8) at Washington (5-10), 8 p.m. Saturday (NFL Network).

Eli Manning brings the Giants into Washington needing to win to grab the final remaining NFC playoff spot and give the NFC East a sweep of the wildcards. They’ll be hoping to repeat their success of Week 5 where New York throttled the Redskins 19-3 in the Meadowlands. That game started a 5 game winning streak where the Giants looked like world-beaters and put them 6-2 at the midway mark.

But the Redskins will have many more fans than the ones packed into FedEx Field. The playoff fates of Green Bay, St. Louis, Carolina, and Atlanta also hang in the balance. A Giant win officially knocks out the final three teams in that group and leaves the Packers needing to win and getting help from 8 different teams to advance.

Now we’ll move on to the Sunday games.

Carolina (7-8) at New Orleans (10-5), 1 p.m.

Carolina is third in the NFC wildcard pecking order behind the Giants and Green Bay based on their current 5-6 conference record, division record vs. Atlanta, and victory over St. Louis. So they need the Giants and Packers to both lose while they win. Meanwhile, New Orleans wraps up a dream regular season where they’ve already assured themselves a week off and a home game against either Dallas, Philadelphia, or Seattle in the second round. Carolina seeks a repeat of their Week 5 win over the Saints (21-18 at Carolina.)

Detroit (2-13) at Dallas (9-6), 1 p.m. (locally on Fox 21)

If only because of the vagaries of the NFL’s schedulemaker, Detroit finds itself in the playoff mix. Not only would a Detroit win assure Philadephia the NFC East title, it’s also one of the eight games Green Bay needs to fall its way if the Giants win. So Dallas will just seek a repeat of its 20-7 victory last season over the Lions in Dallas. And I can watch to see if a Detroit fan can sneak a “Fire Millen” sign into Texas Stadium.

Jacksonville (8-7) at Kansas City (8-7), 1 p.m.

The loser in this one is definitely out, and there’s actually a pretty good chance the winner will be too when all is said and done. Both of these teams are well down the tiebreaker scenarios. Each team needs Cincinnati and Tennessee to lose, while Jacksonville needs a Jets loss and Kansas City has to see Denver go down. But play they must and will. The last time they did so was 2004, where Jacksonville won at home 22-16.

New England (10-5) at Tennessee (8-7), 1 p.m.

While the Patriots aren’t locked into the #4 seed in the AFC, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll end up there. Only if they win and Indianapolis loses would they slide up to #3 and in either case they host a playoff game next week. But Tennessee has a chance to make history should they get some help from losses by Cincinnati and Denver plus a Kansas City win…no team’s ever started 0-5 and made the playoffs. I’m sure at that point New England was thinking about the nice cake game it had at the end of the schedule, but no more. This may be a shootout like the teams’ last meeting, a 38-30 win for the Patriots back in 2003.

Oakland (2-13) at New York Jets (9-6), 1 p.m.

Like the Lions, Raider Nation has a role in the playoff hunt despite its woeful record. The question is whether they have any shot at playing spoiler against the Jets, who simply need to win to assure themselves a spot in the playoffs. If the Raiders win, it provides additional hope for teams underneath the Jets in the order. Last season these two played with the Jets winning 26-10 at home.

Pittsburgh (7-8) at Cincinnati (8-7), 1 p.m.

Pittsburgh was knocked out of the postseason sweepstakes by their loss to the Ravens last week, but can extend the same discourtesy to the Bengals with a win while avenging a 28-20 loss to Cincinnati back in Week 3. Even with a win, the Bengals will need help from either Oakland beating the Jets or a combo pack of a Denver loss and Kansas City win to make the playoffs for a second straight season.

St. Louis (7-8) at Minnesota (6-9), 1 p.m.

This game might be the next meaningless one. St. Louis is pretty much the bottom of the barrel as far as playoff hopes go, and a Giants win Saturday night snuffs out the Rams’ faint hopes. Even if they survive that, they still need losses from the Panthers and Falcons to make it (they defeated Green Bay earlier so they hold the tiebreaker over the Packers.) Last December they lost to the Vikings in the same building 27-13 so a repeat performance kills their hopes.

Meanwhile, we have an interesting anamoly in the broadcasting world. For the first time I can recall, both CBS and FOX were allowed to have doubleheader broadcasts. I couldn’t find out whether the CBS early game telecast locally would be Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (which would be my guess) but I know FOX has the Detroit-Dallas matchup starting at 1:00. Our late games are noted below with the 4:15 starts.

Arizona (5-10) at San Diego (13-2), 4:15 p.m.

Yeah, it’s pretty much a mismatch. But San Diego needs to win this to assure that they need not leave sunny California for a playoff game until they win the AFC title. This is one of those games that you’re happy that the teams only face off once every 4 years. By the way, the Chargers won in Arizona that 2002 day, 23-15.

Atlanta (7-8) at Philadelphia (9-6), 4:15 p.m. (locally on Fox 21)

While Atlanta may be out of the playoff running well before this game starts (since they need both the Giants and Carolina to lose earlier contests), the Eagles will likely know by then whether they need to win to assure themselves a NFC East crown and #3 seed. There is a scenario where these two teams could meet again next week in the same place but it also involves Dallas losing to the lowly Lions and that’s not likely. In 2005 these two opened the season against each other with Atlanta winning in the Georgia Dome 14-10. While the game’s outdoors this time, weather shouldn’t be a factor.

Buffalo (7-8) at Baltimore (12-3), 4:15 p.m. (locally on WBOC 16)

Buffalo’s loss to Tennessee last week ended their playoff hopes and Baltimore’s already locked in. The only question is how much scoreboard watching Brian Billick’s crew will do since they need San Diego to lose to Arizona to have a shot at homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, if things go badly for the Ravens they’ll be watching for Miami to win at Indianapolis and keep the Ravens’ possible first-round bye intact. Two seasons ago these teams met in Baltimore with the Ravens winning 20-6.

Miami (6-9) at Indianapolis (11-4), 4:15 p.m.

This game has a big stake in the AFC playoff picture. At 9-0, it looked like there was no doubt Indianapolis was looking at “home dome” advantage through the AFC playoffs. But 4 straight road losses dropped the Colts from world-beaters to just hoping for a first-round bye. Part of that is beating their onetime division rivals while the other part is hoping another former division foe (Buffalo) takes care of business in the franchise’s onetime home city. The Colts and Dolphins haven’t squared off since 2003, when the Colts won at Miami 23-17.

San Francisco (6-9) at Denver (9-6), 4:15 p.m.

Oh, this oughta be interesting. Denver’s slammed with their second straight weekend of snow and a warm-weather team comes to town. You just hope we don’t see the Super Bowl XXIV result in reverse with a huge Denver win, nor do fans of Cincinnati, Kansas City, Jacksonville, or Tennessee. Way back in the second week of 2002, these teams met under much less adverse conditions by the Bay with Denver winning 24-14. A Denver win and it’s off to a likely date with the Patriots (or possibly a Denver at Indianapolis playoff rematch for the third straight season) next weekend.

Green Bay (7-8) at Chicago (13-2), 8:15 p.m. (locally on NBC)

The draw to this is that it’s quite possibly Brett Favre’s final NFL game. But wait…there’s still a viable scenario that #4 may play another day. (Besides the fact he’s officially announced nothing about his future.) We will already know by this time whether it’s possible for Green Bay to make it with a win, but here’s the scenarios:

If the Giants win, Green Bay also has to win along with Arizona, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota, San Francisco, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Seattle. (So I guess technically all 16 games have playoff implications, don’t they?)

If the Giants lose, then Green Bay needs to win and have a St. Louis loss or a win by either Carolina or Atlanta to make it.

Theoretically the two teams (Giants and Packers) could get all the way to the “strength of schedule” tiebreaker where the Giants currently hold the edge (but playing 13-2 Chicago helps the Packers.) Crazier things have happened, but the first order of business is for Green Bay to avenge its season-opening 26-0 loss to “da Bears.”

I know where I’ll be this weekend as I’m checking off results and figuring out who’s playing where next week.

Author: Michael

It's me from my laptop computer.