Baseball is getting down to the nitty gritty. With two weeks to go, there’s still nine AL teams and a whopping 14 NL teams who are still mathematically alive for the postseason; however, I’m going to ignore those who are likely going to be bounced this week. If their playoff elimination number is 6 or less, they ain’t gonna make it.
American League:
1. New York (90-58 pending tonight’s game with Boston, 10 1/2 game lead in AL East)
Magic number: 4 (or 2 if they win tonight) for division, 13 for home field
Remaining schedule: 3 at Tor, 4 at TB, 3 vs. Bal, 3 vs. Tor (composite 149 games under .500)
Because the Tigers have faded the Yankees will likely get home field throughout the playoffs. During the Toronto series they’ll likely punch their ticket to the playoffs in front of the Canadian fans. I think this will be something like 11 straight division titles?
2. DETROIT (89-60, 1 game lead in AL Central)
Magic number: 13 for division, 9 for playoffs
Remaining schedule: 3 at Chi, 1 at Bal, 3 at KC, 3 vs. Tor, 3 vs. KC (composite 141 games under .500)
While the schedule looks easy, it’s not like the White Sox are pushovers despite their recent fade and the Royals have played inspired ball the last month or so, passing Tampa Bay as far as overall record.
3. Minnesota (88-61, 4 game lead for wild card)
Magic number: 10 for wild card
Remaining schedule: 3 at Bos, 3 at Bal, 4 vs. KC, 3 vs. Chi (composite 109 games under .500)
The last series with the White Sox will probably eliminate one or the other, although I’ll take a heaping helping of inspired Royals ball against the Twins, please.
4. Oakland (86-62, 7 game lead in AL West)
Magic number: 7
Remaining schedule: 4 vs. Cle, 3 vs. LA, 3 at Sea, 4 at LA (composite 9 games over .500)
They lead LA by 7 games and play them 7 times. Enough said.
5. Chicago (84-65)
Remaining schedule: 3 vs. Det, 4 vs. Sea, 3 at Cle, 3 at Min (composite 110 games over .500)
None of their 13 remaining games are a bargain. While for the better part of the summer they remained close enough to Detroit to enable them to sweep a series with the Tigers and get to first, now that’s not possible. They have to keep the Twins in their sights now for that 3 game finale in the Metrodome.
Mathematically alive: Boston (80-69 pending tonight’s contest), Los Angeles (80-70), Toronto (79-70), Texas (76-74)
Also-rans: Seattle (71-78), Cleveland (69-79), Baltimore (64-85), Kansas City (58-92), Tampa Bay (57-92). The Royals in particular would love to avoid losing 100 games and be a spoiler at the same time.
National League:
1. New York (90-58, 13 1/2 game lead in NL East)
Magic number: 1 for division, 5 for home field
Remaining schedule: 4 vs. Fla, 4 vs. Was, 3 at Atl, 3 at Was (composite 103 games under .500)
I was shocked that they didn’t already clinch the East this weekend, instead they were swept by the lowly Pirates. Maybe they just wanted to do it at Shea, which they almost certainly will in the next day or two. By the end of the Florida series they might even gain home field throughout the NL playoffs.
2. St. Louis (79-68, 7 game lead in NL Central)
Magic number: 8
Remaining schedule: 3 at Mil, 4 at Hou, 3 vs. SD, 4 vs. Mil (composite 105 games under .500)
They have been the beneficiary of Cincinnati’s plummet from the race moreso than themselves playing good baseball. But they’re winning the “we don’t get to face the Mets until the NLCS” race for now.
3. San Diego (78-70, 1/2 game lead in NL West)
Magic number: 14 for division, 13 for playoffs
Remaining schedule: 1 vs. LA, 3 vs. Arz, 3 vs. Pit, 3 at StL, 4 at Arz (composite 81 games under .500)
That series with St. Louis looms large as far as number 2 seed goes but you can’t figure them to even make the playoffs yet with their close division and wild card races.
4. Los Angeles (78-71, 1 game lead for wild card)
Magic number: 13 for wild card
Remaining schedule: 1 vs. SD, 3 vs. Pit, 3 vs. Arz, 3 at Col, 3 at SF (composite 118 games under .500)
Obviously they have the easier schedule than San Diego does as the best team they have left is 74-74 San Francisco. But like Kansas City, the Pirates have looked a lot better in September and just swept the Mets. Could they damage another team?
5. Philadelphia (77-72)
Remaining schedule: 3 vs. Chi, 3 vs. Fla, 1 vs. Hou, 3 at Was, 3 at Fla (composite 153 games under .500)
The Marlins have done in the Phillies’ playoff chances a couple times in the last few years, and they’ll get another opportunity to do so this season. Playing the Cubs at home is almost a must-sweep situation.
6. San Francisco (74-74)
Remaining schedule: 3 at Col, 4 at Mil, 3 vs. Arz, 3 vs. LA (composite 93 games under .500)
Losing a game today at St. Louis due to rain may be the worst thing to happen to their hopes as they trail Los Angeles by 3 in the loss column and play them 3 times at the end. Since the Giants and Cards have no common off days left this may be a battle for October 2nd just to see if the Giants can get in the playoffs, but it’s doubtful they will anyhow.
Mathematically alive: Florida (74-75), Cincinnati (73-76), Atlanta (72-77), Houston (71-77), Arizona (71-78), Colorado (69-80)
Also-rans: Washington (65-84), Pittsburgh (63-87), Chicago (61-89). The Pirates have passed the Cubs for the NL basement, and they’ve got some talented young pitching there. The Cubs had talented young pitching about 3-4 years ago, now they have denizens of the DL.
If the playoffs started based on tonight’s standings, it would be:
AL – New York vs. Minnesota, Detroit vs. Oakland
NL – New York vs. Los Angeles, St. Louis vs. San Diego
