Tag: Brian Murphy

Will Larry Hogan be a Maryland hero?

Now you know I couldn’t resist some reference to that. But seriously, this group may have some merit as perhaps being attractive to the TEA Party element yet acceptable to the conservative Republican establishment. I’ll let him take it from here:

We need YOU to Change Maryland.

Join the grassroots movement that’s fighting to bring fiscal responsibility and common sense to Annapolis. Change Maryland was born out of the frustrations of average Marylanders who are fed up with politics as usual in our state, want to stand together, and fight back for a change.

Our elected leaders are not solving the problems – they are causing them and making them worse. We’re concerned that Maryland is way off track, headed in the wrong direction and that our very economic future is at stake. It’s time to send a message to Annapolis.

We can’t sit back, accept the status quo, and allow the out of touch monopoly in Annapolis to continue to run our state into the ground with no opposition, no debate, and no checks and balances. It’s time we said enough is enough.

All Marylanders –Republicans, Democrats, and Independents – suffer when the professional politicians and the special interest groups go unchecked and continue to push the same failed ‘tax and spend’ policies. This cycle must stop. We can stop it together.

Together, we can Change Maryland. Real competition, honest debate of the issues, and the competition of a healthy and strong two party system are needed to turn Maryland around. Say no to more spending, more debt and higher taxes.

This isn’t just a fight between the right and the left. It’s a fight between right and wrong. We don’t need partisanship; we need honest leaders in Maryland who will tackle the tough issues. This isn’t about Republicans versus Democrats. It’s more important than that. This is about Maryland’s future, and it’s a fight worth fighting.

The group referred to already has a website; naturally it’s ChangeMaryland.org. This is a pretty solid introduction:

You can’t help but notice the tagline “from Election Strategies.”

So why now? Well, I haven’t asked Larry (although I do believe he checks out this site from time to time) but if I were to hazard a guess it would come from two distinct pieces of information:

The reason these are important is quite simple, really – these two gentlemen either ran for or considered running for Governor in 2010, as did Hogan before he withdrew in favor of Bob Ehrlich. We know that Murphy followed through until losing in the primary (with a little help from the Republican establishment) but Lollar considered the race until he was tripped up by an arcane residency rule. That won’t apply in 2014.

So perhaps part of the reason behind Change Maryland is to keep Larry’s name in the spotlight, although in actuality his name is nowhere on the site. Yet, in looking at Larry’s Facebook page he’s been a one-man promoter for Change Maryland, and that’s how I became familiar with the CM page. I figure he had something to do with its creation, and certainly I don’t have an issue with the message. But you know me: always looking for that deeper meaning.

We’ll keep an eye on the page as it develops, but in the meantime this could be an indication that Larry Hogan’s not through with politics just yet.

The TEA Party is not a loser

Sorry about the time away, but now things are back to normal in my new locale.

I’m catching up on some things I meant to respond to, with one being a December 31 post by Richard Cross at Cross Purposes which picked Maryland political winners and losers. I’m not going to quibble with the other seven items, but I don’t think the TEA Party in Maryland was a loser in 2010. After all, Cross also picked “insurgent Republicans” as one of his four winners and the TEA Party was a big part of getting those insurgents elected.

“The makings of a political farm team consisting of young, energetic, upwardly-mobile candidates” has been a GOP goal for many years, but Cross chooses to focus on the electoral losses of TEA Party darlings Jim Rutledge and Brian Murphy. Certainly those two were my personal picks, but the TEA Party was victorious on the local level in getting that GOP bench in place.

It’s also worth mentioning that Rutledge and Murphy have placed themselves in a position to run for future office. I don’t see another Senate run for Jim, but many have postulated that he could run for another statewide office in 2014 – perhaps Attorney General, as he was rumored to do this year. Certainly the GOP could use a candidate there. And with Bob Ehrlich out of the picture, one could use the example of recycling 2008 Presidential hopefuls like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee on a national scale to presume Murphy as a gubernatorial player in 2014 (along with the possibilities of those who dropped out earlier like Pat McDonough, Larry Hogan, and Charles Lollar.)

Yet it’s Richard’s contention that “(the TEA Party) never approached the level of relevance and organization evident in other states, and its influence will only wane over time” which I object most to. Perhaps he wasn’t in Annapolis over the weekend to see over 200 conservative activists get together to plan for the next electoral cycles. (If it weren’t for having already picked the day to move, it may have been over 201.)

So you have 200 activists all ready to continue fighting and teaching, as they’ll influence their circle and those influenced will spread the word even farther. I’ll grant the political landscape of Maryland makes the fight an uphill battle, but I don’t believe the TEA Party has breathed their last in the Free State. Cross is wrong in picking this movement as a loser.

Conservatives in Maryland CAN

In three weeks, we may be seeing the beginnings of the TEA Party moving into its rightful place at the head of the Maryland political table. Yes, we have to wait until 2014 for the next statewide election but the process is moving in the right direction with a meeting of the minds coming up on Saturday, January 8th. Instead of being outside looking in (as they were at the recent GOP convention, where the picture is from) they are the organizers of the event – ironically set in the same locale of the Doubletree Hotel in Annapolis.

Organizers believe it will be the catalyst for future gains.

“To our knowledge, nothing like this has been done before in Maryland,” said Ann Corcoran, Washington County blogger and one of the organizers. “We expect like-minded activists to share ideas and talents, forge alliances, sound the call for action, and give rise to conservative voices so that political competition can thrive in Maryland.”

Added Howard County activist Tonya Tiffany, “We’ll be talking about 2010 campaign lessons, precinct organization, voter fraud, media outreach, running for office as a citizen legislator, and federal pressures bearing down on the state of Maryland. We’re not forming another political ‘group’ (but) trying to network people.” 

With a roster of speakers well-known to conservative activists statewide, this daylong event was set up to give TEA Party faithful and their allies around the state the opportunity to converse and plan a strategy for future political gains. The speakers include:

  • Marta Mossburg, Maryland Public Policy Institute
  • Claver Kamau-Imani, Raging Elephants
  • Anita MonCrief, ACORN whistleblower and creator, Emerging Corruption.com
  • Delegate Ron George
  • Congressman Andy Harris
  • Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins
  • Delegate-elect Kathy Afzali
  • Charles Lollar (2010 Congressional candidate)
  • Robert Broadus (2010 Congressional candidate)
  • Brian Murphy (2010 gubernatorial candidate)

All this (and more) packed into eight hours for a cost of $40, which includes a box lunch. A registration form can be found here, or by contacting Tonya Tiffany at marylandcan@yahoo.com.

Is Murphy the man?

Update 2, 8 p.m.: There is a draft movement to get writer and former State Senate candidate Ron Miller to run. I also have it on good authority that another former Delegate and candidate is considering the race as well.

Update: Eric Wargotz is on record in the Washington Post as considering a bid, too.

“We need to change the mindset — the idea that Republicans can’t win here. I’m a physician. I believe there’s a cure and a diagnosis for everything.”

A published report is now saying that Brian Murphy is “hinting” that he wants to be Maryland GOP Chair. Obviously the angle presented by Sun writer Anne Linskey is one of a near-rematch between Brian Murphy and Mary Kane – technically this rematch would be true if Mike Ryman jumped into the race (and for all I know right now observing this race he just might.)

Certainly Murphy would bring a more conservative element to the chairmanship, and those of us who supported him in the gubernatorial election were reminded on November 2nd that those naysayers who said only Bob Ehrlich had a chance against Martin O’Malley were, oh, only about 14 1/2 points shy of being right. Shoot, Brian could have gotten 40 percent of the vote just by being a underfunded placeholder.

The rub for any of these “insurgent” candidates, though, is whether they can keep some of the large donors and rainmakers on board. Of course, business sense does help when it comes to running a party, but there’s no denying that a number of people and entities decided to step up and open their checkbooks the moment Audrey Scott was elected. As I reported at the time:

In the spirit of cooperation, Mike Collins of Anne Arundel County began a parade of people willing to donate to the party. All told, the impromptu effort raised $4,000 for the party coffers, which included donations from two county committees.

In thinking back, though, one could construe that effort as a little bit insulting. The party’s needs didn’t change and hopefully its principles didn’t change either, but suddenly they were worth donating to again. Will Mike Collins and his ilk again snap their wallets shut in a snit if Murphy or another non-establishment candidate (read: anyone besides Mary Kane) wins? That seems like a poor reaction to losing control of a party that, quite frankly, badly underperformed on a state level.

One who will not be running is Jim Rutledge, who announced on his Facebook page he wouldn’t be a candidate. But he had some strong words for those who were:

This is the time for bold leadership, not the time to succumb to the siren’s song of moderation, liberalization, and the club mentality of the Rockefeller republicans who have held sway over too many elements of the party in MD for too long. We in MD are being ruled not represented. Money is king and those that have it threaten to walk if they do not get their way. I say, let them walk, no let them run to their democrat friends. It is time for the ruling class to be deposed. Just look at the MD GOP website today promoting a celebration of Audrey Scott who presided over one of the worst GOP performances in the nation. After losing 2 MD Senate seats, she should have taken the honorable path and resigned immediately.

Time is short, and under pressure, taking the familiar “safe” way will be a great temptation. Take the opportunity now to buck the trends and strike for a new face on the MD GOP. The phone calls and emails having been flying and clamoring for new leadership and a new direction. The enemies of liberty abound, and we are counting on you to strike the ground for freedom now.

I write as a citizen. I am no longer a candidate, and I am not running for the Chair. I have obligations to fulfill that will not permit me to give the job the time it will require.

The “familiar ‘safe’ way” got us drubbed by 14 1/2 points and only netted us 4 seats in the General Assembly. But in areas the state party didn’t touch nearly as much we were much more successful – look at our success here in Wicomico County where we picked up at least one (and possibly two) County Council seats and the State’s Attorney office. (Too bad we couldn’t fill the whole ballot or we may have done even better!) And I’d be willing to wager that those who run as the most conservative alternatives win easily in Salisbury’s upcoming election (which is nonpartisan.)

Maybe it’s time to listen to those who have success?

Blog note: I think I’m going to create a widget for my sidebar on the ins, outs, and maybes. Look for it later today or tomorrow.

Murphy speaks out

It’s about four minutes of commentary, but former gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy had the chance to discuss the recent election with Shari Elliker on WBAL Radio Friday.

There’s no doubt that Murphy paid as much attention to the election results as the rest of us did, and it’s not clear from the conversation that his campaign rhetoric about Bob Ehrlich being beatable wasn’t quite the “I told you so” in retrospect. Critics noted that Bob Ehrlich’s message was a little muddy in their postmortems.

But now is the time to look forward to what is and will be. Martin O’Malley has one more term to serve as governor, and it’s conceivable a number of state Democrats are playing the game of being coy about their 2014 plans while laying the groundwork for a run of their own for Government House. Anthony Brown, Peter Franchot, and Doug Gansler are naturally front and center in that conversation since they have ran and won statewide.

Meanwhile, the GOP side has its own contenders with Brian Murphy probably among them. (He was coy about this in his conversation with Elliker, but one has to believe he’s considering the prospect of seeking an open seat. We’ll see based on how much interaction he has with Republican and TEA Party groups in the coming months.)

But we can’t forget a couple other names.

The old guard establishment may well be represented by Larry Hogan, who began something of a placeholder run for Governor this year until Bob Ehrlich got in.

We also need to consider Charles Lollar, who was the beneficiary of a draft movement last year but was tripped up by residency requirements this time around based on when he first registered to vote in Maryland he was just a few months short of the five years required. Undaunted, he ran for Congress. Unless Democrats decide to push through a ten-year requirement to foil him again, he may well decide to run again IF he doesn’t win a Congressional seat first.

It’s going to be about message, though. With the strong probability of another set of tax increases or expansions for Maryland one has to wonder just how long it will be before the unaffiliated voters and thoughtful suburban Democrats realize that continually funneling more money to the state for fewer and poorer core services needs to come to a screeching halt and eventually be turned around. Given the slow pace of economic recovery, the prospect of a strong economy come 2014 can only be described as a crapshoot at best – people my age may recall that the Reagan recovery didn’t begin until his third year in office and if a Republican takes the White House in 2012 it may take that long to undo the Obama damage (even with a GOP House over his last two years.)

But I’m glad to see Brian Murphy hasn’t gone away. Maybe we should be hanging onto those yard signs.

Comment on another’s post

Subtitled, why bury good writing and research in a comment?

First, let me set this up: Julie Brewington pondered on her site, Right Coast, why Martin O’Malley was leading Bob Ehrlich so widely (11 points) in a recent Washington Post poll. I weighed in with some statistics found on the Maryland Board of Elections website which may point out the poll was an outlier. This is my comment.

A couple points not necessarily considered:

In 2006 the primary voter split between Republicans and Democrats was 29-71 – over 70 percent of voters were Democrats.

In 2010 it was 37-63 R to D, in a state where the actual voter proportion as of the last report was 32-68. Bear in mind that in August 2006 the split was 35-65. (We’ve lost ground over the last four years for a variety of reasons.)

So in 2006 (a year that was terrible for Republicans) they underperformed at the primary ballot by 6 points, leading one to believe that R’s were less than enthused and D’s were excited.

This time we outperformed by 5 points, suggesting the tide has turned. The fact Garrett County, which is the most solidly Republican in the state, led the pack in turnout speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap.

I think you’re citing a poll that will turn out to be an outlier because there’s not a good geographic breakdown and it depends a lot on people who may not show up at the polls anyway.

However, having said that, there was a trend (shown by Rasmussen) of Ehrlich pulling even to barely ahead all spring and into the summer, but the last two polls have placed MOM back in the lead.

**********

Julie does bring up a valid point regarding the Brian Murphy campaign. I have a number of thoughts on that 25% of the GOP vote and what will happen to it.

First of all, I sincerely doubt that many of those voters will vote for Martin O’Malley out of spite. While many were dismayed by the actions of the Maryland GOP in that race, I think that most realize the stakes are great in this election. The fraction of Republicans who vote for O’Malley out of spite probably will be fewer that the votes the Democrats found in Baltimore back in 1994 to push Parris Glendening over Ellen Sauerbrey.

A larger number will choose to leave the Governor’s race blank or vote for either Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian in the race, or Eric Knowles, who represents the Constitution Party. Ironically, this could help one or both secure ballot status for the next four years since they need 1 percent of the vote to qualify as a minor party. But in all likelihood those numbers will subtract out from the Ehrlich column.

Having said that, though, Murphy’s campaign may have served to expand the Republican universe enough that, even if a decent number of Murphy supporters go third party or skip, it will end up being a wash as compared to a scenario where Murphy withdrew and left the field to Ehrlich. Some proof of this lies in how the GOP did 11 points better compared to the expected average because we had a contested primary for Governor – in 2006 we did not.

Yet the vast majority of Murphy supporters accepted the primary results, and will move into the Ehrlich column next month. The $64,000 question is whether they’ll be advocates for Bob or just show up on Election Day, hold their noses, and touch the screen next to the Ehrlich name.

But that difference could also affect races down the ticket, particularly in areas (like the Shore) where the GOP has a shot of picking off some Democratic General Assembly seats. While they can’t expect the same sort of rout we may see on a national scale, there is a threshold of 10 House seats and five Senate seats that could turn the GOP from a cipher to a truly functioning minority party in the Maryland General Assembly.

A note to former Murphy supporters

We can watch the train go over the cliff with us still on it, or we can fight to control the locomotive. That’s the difference between Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich. 

Voters’ memories are notoriously short and if you asked them right now whether the name Brian Murphy rings a bell, 95% of them will say no.

I’ll certainly grant Bob Ehrlich isn’t my preferred candidate but I’d rather have someone who at least would have conservatives at the table than one who would shut them out. We need to send the message that our continued support is contingent on following through on issues near and dear to us.

In the meantime, we also have work to do reforming the MDGOP. Taking our ball and going home simply means they can continue business as usual. The more talk about going third party or skipping the election, the more ability the establishment has to marginalize those of us who choose to fight from within.

I left that comment at Ann Corcoran’s Potomac Tea Party Report. Obviously there’s a subset of people who believe that all is lost after Murphy’s defeat (as well as that of Jim Rutledge) and are willing to toss their votes out the window to support a third-party candidate. Once upon a time millions of Americans (including me) did that for Ross Perot and we got Bill Clinton.

There’s no doubt that Brian Murphy was a more conservative candidate, nor do I dispute the claim that the Maryland GOP put its finger on the scale big-time when they waived Rule 11 to back Bob Ehrlich.

But all of these people need to understand that we only lost one battle in a war that’s going to be fought long-term. If we fade back into the woodwork nothing will change. Those of us who are fighting the battle from within would be the ones left high and dry, smacked back into oblivion by the machine that we’re trying to fight this guerrilla struggle against.

If we stay at the table and Ehrlich wins, he’s going to owe us bigtime. I don’t know if Bob can run again if he wins, but conservatives would be in the far better position with a Republican in the governor’s chair and enhanced numbers in the General Assembly than we would with Martin O’Malley back in charge. Remember, Martin O’Malley represents a party whose Senate leadership vowed:

(GOP leaders are) “going to be flying high, but we’re going to get together and we’re going to shoot them down. We’re going to bury them face down in the ground, and it’ll be 10 years before they crawl out again.”

That’s how they operate in this state, my friends. Martin O’Malley would sooner give up his guitar than do something for conservatives. I’ve known this for awhile.

If diehard Murphy supporters leave or vote third party, we are ceding the hard-fought gains we’ve won in this battle and it’s going to be twice as hard to get it back in a war where the enemy holds all of the high ground. I don’t care for compromise, and certainly it would have been great to see success like conservatives saw in Delaware. But we still have a lot worth fighting for, and staving off extinction through redistricting is a serious prize to me. Democrats have plenty of plans to carve Republicans right off the electoral map.

Sure, it would be nice to get the Libertarians and Constitution Party their 1% to stay viable for another term. But let it come out of the other guy’s total.

Murphy backs Ehrlich but blasts state GOP

After losing the primary by a considerable margin, Brian Murphy did the right thing and threw his support behind winner Bob Ehrlich. In a message to supporters, he wrote:

“I entered the race because I am a fiscal conservative, and Marylanders cannot afford higher taxes or fees. Bob Ehrlich has pledged not to raise either, and so he has my full support in the General Election against Martin O’Malley.”

Obviously conservatives in Maryland, led by Murphy, will be holding Ehrlich’s feet to the fire about fiscal prudence. It’s a stand which seems to have a lot of support in the state as Bob Ehrlich spoke about fiscal conservatism early on as part of an overall pro-business stance.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Maryland Republican establishment fears Murphy’s Law in November

One advantage of having a late primary as Maryland does is the lack of downtime between the primary and the campaign — the survivors don’t have to wind the machine back up from a primary fight months before once Labor Day rolls around. Instead, winners get to keep their campaigns cranked up in high gear for another seven weeks.

But the late primary also gives the losers a role. In a divisive fight, the winner has to quickly convince supporters of the loser that they need to get onboard with his or her effort. Generally, those who succeed in November are the ones who gathered the united front shortly after the primary by soothing the wounds deflated supporters of the losing campaigns inflict by a crushing defeat.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

Thank you for your support!

Update 9/16: I picked up another 46 votes today in the absentee count and increased my margin to 27.

It looks like I may have made it…just barely, but I may have made it.

With a few hundred absentee ballots out, I’m holding on to ninth place for the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee by a 25 vote margin. It’s a damn good thing my suggestion of a couple years ago (to expand the WCRCC from 7 to 9 members) was finally adopted by the committee or I’d be out in the cold!

Obviously I’m bummed that both of my statewide candidates I supported lost. It’s not a surprise that Brian Murphy lost, but I am heartened that he picked up 29% of the vote here – it means that Bob Ehrlich can’t take us conservatives for granted over the next seven weeks. (Murphy got over 30% of the vote in a handful of counties, peaking so far at 33 percent.)

But I guess Eric Wargotz may have bought himself a nomination, since he doesn’t seem to anywhere near the grassroots support that Jim Rutledge did. My friends who are Rutledge backers should be proud that the top two counties in the state to back Jim were (in order) Wicomico (#1) and Worcester (#2.) Shows we have some common sense, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Wargotz skedaddle to the center now.

I did better on the homefront – wasn’t sure Marty Pusey would pull it off but she did! Congrats and way to go Marty!

More shocking was the ease in which Charles Otto won his primary. And people will be talking for awhile about the upset of Davis Ruark by Seth Mitchell.

Looks like later today I can condense my righthand column and prepare for November. But again, thanks to the 2,036 people who had faith in me and my efforts on the Wicomico County Republican Central Committee!

Just don’t tell me I’m a shoo-in next time!

Watch before you vote

Because he didn’t have the big money of the establishment behind him, many voters weren’t introduced to Brian Murphy. Take about 20 minutes to be educated and if you like what you see, go ahead and vote for him in the Republican primary. This is part one.

Part two is here.

I’d rather stand on principle than have to settle. Brian doesn’t need 160,000 votes – he only needs one vote 160,000 times. I think yours should be one.

“When you stand on principle, you never walk alone.”

Some thoughts on Brian Murphy

Even before yesterday, most people knew I was a Brian Murphy backer. I strongly endorse his bid for Governor. Yet all but maybe a handful of readers may wonder where I was yesterday and the long duration between posts.

Yesterday afternoon I had the opportunity to attend a rally for Brian Murphy supporters outside Annapolis. The reason I did so was to gather material for a Pajamas Media story I worked on this afternoon, and I got to speak to activists from all over who strongly support Brian and may only provide the most tepid of backing for Bob Ehrlich. I can’t say that I blame them, even though I’ll vote for Bob in November if he wins tomorrow (provided he doesn’t do anything absolutely stupid in the next seven weeks like embrace the Obama agenda.)

In the aftermath of this election cycle, though, it’s clear one of two things will be true:

  • We will have a Republican governor, or;
  • We will have the last Maryland GOP standardbearer be a two-time loser, whether in the primary or general election.

The last time we had a Republican governor, one of his cronies ran the party and just about ran it into the ground. (Now his wife is on the Ehrlich ticket as LG – talk about cronyism!) It was up to a man who I didn’t initially support but now have all the respect in the world for, Jim Pelura, to try and straighten out that mess. Pelura served as the master of ceremonies yesterday and had this to say about Brian in his introduction.

One can debate the merits of Pelura’s tenure as GOP head, but they can’t debate his integrity and principles. I happen to think part of the reason he was ousted and certain large donors held back was because he didn’t allow the party to be completely hijacked as a vehicle for re-electing Bob Ehrlich. Is there bad blood between Pelura and the Ehrlichs? Most likely, but there have been enough people who dislike each other personally but work together for a common goal that I dismiss that angle of sour grapes directed at Jim from the Ehrlich camp.

But let’s say the unthinkable happens and Martin O’Malley is re-elected. Obviously the Ehrlich supporters will be screaming that it’s all Brian Murphy’s fault, but I’m hoping they instead put on their big-boy pants and realize that Ehrlich obviously alienated a significant portion of the electorate, most likely the conservatives who backed Murphy. Sure, Ehrlich talked like this early on (back in April) but he’s never done a mea culpa for overspending during his term.

I just hope the Ehrlich backers recall the ‘no whining’ admonition if he loses. But it’s also up to Murphy backers to consider that they at least can’t ignore the downticket races, even if Murphy loses tomorrow and they can’t stomach the thought of either Ehrlich or O’Malley in office. For me, it’s not quite a ‘lesser of two evils’ race (because Bob Ehrlich does have some good points) but there is that potential for a lot of people.

But the bigger question is whether the Ehrlich era is over if he loses. Does Brian Murphy become the next rendition of Bob Ehrlich, and will the party become a machine to put Brian Murphy in the governor’s office for the open seat come 2014? Somehow I don’t see that happening because Ehrlich is the “establishment” candidate, and they’ll find someone else to play the role if and when Ehrlich departs from the stage. I’d be shocked if Brian Murphy is invited to speak at a Lincoln Day dinner next year. (Now, if he could bring along Sarah Palin that may become a ‘go’.)

I know Brian Murphy’s stances, and I think he would be a great governor. But there are those out there for whom he needs to earn their respect, and if he loses I hope he doesn’t take too long to back Bob Ehrlich. We will need all hands on deck this fall. However, it’s also up to Ehrlich to regain the trust he lost, and tacking to the center right away isn’t going to make it with a lot of his base. If those people stay home in November we have a problem.

Consider it a real life application of Murphy’s Law.