Tag: Maryland GOP

Are you ready for the next step?

Chances are when you read this tomorrow will be Election Day, since I’m writing this shortly before midnight.

It’s been a tremendously long campaign since it really began about the time the TEA Parties began in the spring of 2009. Everyone involved believed the government had finally overstepped its bounds after a series of debacles which began under the Bush Administration and overlapped into President Obama’s tenure. In their eyes, more spending and government weren’t the answer for kickstarting a moribund economy.

Locally, I’ve seen the impact of this movement both on and off the ballot. All three local parties have at least one candidate who was inspired to take part in the political process thanks to the TEA Party movement. And although neither the Brewingtons (Julie and Mike) nor Chris Lewis was successful in their aspirations for legislative office, it can be argued that the TEA Party has affected the local Republican Party. We have a lot of new blood in the lower levels of the party thanks to the TEA Party, but the trick will be to keep them there and not make them disillusioned over what happens beginning November 3rd.

Normally I don’t discuss inside party baseball, but I’m sure most are aware that the local Republican Party will have a new Chair for the next term because current Chair John Bartkovich opted not to run again. But many of those who were on the Central Committee previously ran and won, and while I’m not going to name names in this space I will let you know that three people are interested in taking over the reins of the local party. (Let me say up front: I’m not one of the three! There are some who might be disappointed by that, but there are better qualified people among the group than I.) I think two of them would be acceptable to the local TEA Party to represent a non-establishment presence there while the other may smack too much of the ‘old guard’ establishment.

(A note to local Republican establishment types: this new group of activists doesn’t believe the best conservative candidates necessarily will have an ‘R’ after their name. This is the new political reality; get used to it.)

Some of the things I believe we will need to address will depend on that which happens in the next 48 hours – of course, the first thing we need to do is get as many Republican candidates as possible elected locally and that’s my main focus. Given the absolute worst-case (but possible) scenario of having Rick Pollitt as County Executive and four fairly leftist Democrats controlling County Council, we have plenty of work to do to protect our wallets. (I won’t go into just how damaging it would be to have Democrats control the federal or state levels.)

But if I have my say, the Republican Party of 2011-14 will be out in the community more and better tapping into the resources we’ve been presented by this new political resurgence. The idea, though, isn’t to elect people simply because they have an ‘R’ after their name but to elect good conservative stewards of our community and way of life. There are some positions locally which haven’t had a good pruning lately and need to be addressed in the next cycle; that’s another job to take care of.

As the next few months progress, I’m sure we will begin to pull back the curtain on a new era in the local GOP. I’m looking forward to being on the winning team for awhile and trying to cement local success while pushing back the frontiers of ignorance (as Walter E. Williams would say) on the state level.

On Tuesday, let’s win some for the Gipper.

Ehrlich: It’s ‘up or out’ for me

On the Washington Post’s ‘Maryland Politics’ blog, Bob Ehrlich told reporters that if he loses Tuesday it will bring an end to his political career. “It would be very difficult to imagine” making another political run, said Bob.

Of course, Ehrlich was already lured out of a comfortable existence once to run this time, so perhaps this statement needs its grain of salt.

But if the polls are correct – even Ehrlich concedes he’s behind, although he claims the deficit is far less than the 14-point margin trumpeted by polls in both the Post and Baltimore Sun – and Ehrlich fails in this comeback bid, it means the Maryland Republican Party will be forced out of the comfort zone it’s enjoyed over much of the last decade by having Bob Ehrlich as a standardbearer.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Comment on another’s post

Subtitled, why bury good writing and research in a comment?

First, let me set this up: Julie Brewington pondered on her site, Right Coast, why Martin O’Malley was leading Bob Ehrlich so widely (11 points) in a recent Washington Post poll. I weighed in with some statistics found on the Maryland Board of Elections website which may point out the poll was an outlier. This is my comment.

A couple points not necessarily considered:

In 2006 the primary voter split between Republicans and Democrats was 29-71 – over 70 percent of voters were Democrats.

In 2010 it was 37-63 R to D, in a state where the actual voter proportion as of the last report was 32-68. Bear in mind that in August 2006 the split was 35-65. (We’ve lost ground over the last four years for a variety of reasons.)

So in 2006 (a year that was terrible for Republicans) they underperformed at the primary ballot by 6 points, leading one to believe that R’s were less than enthused and D’s were excited.

This time we outperformed by 5 points, suggesting the tide has turned. The fact Garrett County, which is the most solidly Republican in the state, led the pack in turnout speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap.

I think you’re citing a poll that will turn out to be an outlier because there’s not a good geographic breakdown and it depends a lot on people who may not show up at the polls anyway.

However, having said that, there was a trend (shown by Rasmussen) of Ehrlich pulling even to barely ahead all spring and into the summer, but the last two polls have placed MOM back in the lead.

**********

Julie does bring up a valid point regarding the Brian Murphy campaign. I have a number of thoughts on that 25% of the GOP vote and what will happen to it.

First of all, I sincerely doubt that many of those voters will vote for Martin O’Malley out of spite. While many were dismayed by the actions of the Maryland GOP in that race, I think that most realize the stakes are great in this election. The fraction of Republicans who vote for O’Malley out of spite probably will be fewer that the votes the Democrats found in Baltimore back in 1994 to push Parris Glendening over Ellen Sauerbrey.

A larger number will choose to leave the Governor’s race blank or vote for either Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian in the race, or Eric Knowles, who represents the Constitution Party. Ironically, this could help one or both secure ballot status for the next four years since they need 1 percent of the vote to qualify as a minor party. But in all likelihood those numbers will subtract out from the Ehrlich column.

Having said that, though, Murphy’s campaign may have served to expand the Republican universe enough that, even if a decent number of Murphy supporters go third party or skip, it will end up being a wash as compared to a scenario where Murphy withdrew and left the field to Ehrlich. Some proof of this lies in how the GOP did 11 points better compared to the expected average because we had a contested primary for Governor – in 2006 we did not.

Yet the vast majority of Murphy supporters accepted the primary results, and will move into the Ehrlich column next month. The $64,000 question is whether they’ll be advocates for Bob or just show up on Election Day, hold their noses, and touch the screen next to the Ehrlich name.

But that difference could also affect races down the ticket, particularly in areas (like the Shore) where the GOP has a shot of picking off some Democratic General Assembly seats. While they can’t expect the same sort of rout we may see on a national scale, there is a threshold of 10 House seats and five Senate seats that could turn the GOP from a cipher to a truly functioning minority party in the Maryland General Assembly.

A note to former Murphy supporters

We can watch the train go over the cliff with us still on it, or we can fight to control the locomotive. That’s the difference between Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich. 

Voters’ memories are notoriously short and if you asked them right now whether the name Brian Murphy rings a bell, 95% of them will say no.

I’ll certainly grant Bob Ehrlich isn’t my preferred candidate but I’d rather have someone who at least would have conservatives at the table than one who would shut them out. We need to send the message that our continued support is contingent on following through on issues near and dear to us.

In the meantime, we also have work to do reforming the MDGOP. Taking our ball and going home simply means they can continue business as usual. The more talk about going third party or skipping the election, the more ability the establishment has to marginalize those of us who choose to fight from within.

I left that comment at Ann Corcoran’s Potomac Tea Party Report. Obviously there’s a subset of people who believe that all is lost after Murphy’s defeat (as well as that of Jim Rutledge) and are willing to toss their votes out the window to support a third-party candidate. Once upon a time millions of Americans (including me) did that for Ross Perot and we got Bill Clinton.

There’s no doubt that Brian Murphy was a more conservative candidate, nor do I dispute the claim that the Maryland GOP put its finger on the scale big-time when they waived Rule 11 to back Bob Ehrlich.

But all of these people need to understand that we only lost one battle in a war that’s going to be fought long-term. If we fade back into the woodwork nothing will change. Those of us who are fighting the battle from within would be the ones left high and dry, smacked back into oblivion by the machine that we’re trying to fight this guerrilla struggle against.

If we stay at the table and Ehrlich wins, he’s going to owe us bigtime. I don’t know if Bob can run again if he wins, but conservatives would be in the far better position with a Republican in the governor’s chair and enhanced numbers in the General Assembly than we would with Martin O’Malley back in charge. Remember, Martin O’Malley represents a party whose Senate leadership vowed:

(GOP leaders are) “going to be flying high, but we’re going to get together and we’re going to shoot them down. We’re going to bury them face down in the ground, and it’ll be 10 years before they crawl out again.”

That’s how they operate in this state, my friends. Martin O’Malley would sooner give up his guitar than do something for conservatives. I’ve known this for awhile.

If diehard Murphy supporters leave or vote third party, we are ceding the hard-fought gains we’ve won in this battle and it’s going to be twice as hard to get it back in a war where the enemy holds all of the high ground. I don’t care for compromise, and certainly it would have been great to see success like conservatives saw in Delaware. But we still have a lot worth fighting for, and staving off extinction through redistricting is a serious prize to me. Democrats have plenty of plans to carve Republicans right off the electoral map.

Sure, it would be nice to get the Libertarians and Constitution Party their 1% to stay viable for another term. But let it come out of the other guy’s total.

Murphy backs Ehrlich but blasts state GOP

After losing the primary by a considerable margin, Brian Murphy did the right thing and threw his support behind winner Bob Ehrlich. In a message to supporters, he wrote:

“I entered the race because I am a fiscal conservative, and Marylanders cannot afford higher taxes or fees. Bob Ehrlich has pledged not to raise either, and so he has my full support in the General Election against Martin O’Malley.”

Obviously conservatives in Maryland, led by Murphy, will be holding Ehrlich’s feet to the fire about fiscal prudence. It’s a stand which seems to have a lot of support in the state as Bob Ehrlich spoke about fiscal conservatism early on as part of an overall pro-business stance.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)

Maryland Republican establishment fears Murphy’s Law in November

One advantage of having a late primary as Maryland does is the lack of downtime between the primary and the campaign — the survivors don’t have to wind the machine back up from a primary fight months before once Labor Day rolls around. Instead, winners get to keep their campaigns cranked up in high gear for another seven weeks.

But the late primary also gives the losers a role. In a divisive fight, the winner has to quickly convince supporters of the loser that they need to get onboard with his or her effort. Generally, those who succeed in November are the ones who gathered the united front shortly after the primary by soothing the wounds deflated supporters of the losing campaigns inflict by a crushing defeat.

(continued at Pajamas Media…)

Watch before you vote

Because he didn’t have the big money of the establishment behind him, many voters weren’t introduced to Brian Murphy. Take about 20 minutes to be educated and if you like what you see, go ahead and vote for him in the Republican primary. This is part one.

Part two is here.

I’d rather stand on principle than have to settle. Brian doesn’t need 160,000 votes – he only needs one vote 160,000 times. I think yours should be one.

“When you stand on principle, you never walk alone.”

Party uber alles?

Let me begin by saying that I’m quite aware Audrey Scott, as MDGOP Chair, is paid to elect Republicans. But is this the right message to put out?

Sometimes you have to stand for something besides not being the other guys. Oftentimes we make our decisions based on the letter after the name, not realizing that there’s supposed to be underlying principles inherent within.

I think Brian Murphy understands this too. He criticized Scott in a blistering radio interview message:

For the last 100 years, the Maryland Republican Party has been irrelevant, and so they’ve just said, ‘Well, the only way to win is to look like Democrats.’ No, the way to win is what Ronald Reagan did: to stand on principle.

[The GOP] is really having an identity crisis. Over the weekend, there was a telling video, and it was really pretty disgusting, quite frankly. The reason I’m running is because we’ve lost sight of our principles in our party. If the Republican Party is one thing, it is a party of principles. It is a party of conviction and passion. Our Founders were all men and women of principle and passion.

There was this Rule 11 thing, where the Republican Party, most folks don’t know about it, they don’t really care. It’s this little group that decided to endorse Ehrlich, even before he filed. It was basically a vote against me. But that was a symptom. And this video, this weekend, was the real disease. It was the Chairman of the Republican Party… she said, ‘Party first. Party over principle.’ Which shows she doesn’t understand the Republican Party is the party of principle. That’s why we’re losers in Maryland.

Now, I already have heard the argument about Brian being a Democrat for awhile, yadda yadda yadda. Perhaps what attracted him to switch was the fact our party has good conservative principles and he felt he was the best person to lead us in that direction? To dismiss him is to dismiss a number of other leaders on a more local scale who simply were fed up with politics as usual. A church wouldn’t turn away someone who wants to convert, so why should we?

Unfortunately for establishment Republicans, I give a damn about principles too. One thing I demand is a fair shake for all candidates and let them stand or fall on their own merits, not being Obamalike and clearing the playing field for a chosen candidate. Yes, I’m proud to be a Republican but the “R” next to the name doesn’t guarantee a vote when I think they fall short on principles. That’s why I am unabashedly a Murphy supporter – on the other hand, Wayne Gilchrest was one of those types who wasn’t what I considered a good Republican to be. Fortunately Bob Ehrlich has just enough good points that I can support him in the general election if he doesn’t lose the primary. Chances are he won’t.

That being said, though, in the next term the GOP is going to need to have the whip handy in order to corral Ehrlich in the right direction and make sure he follows through on those areas conservatives supported him for. That means crossing the aisle to accomodate Democrats is verboten – let them come to us. If Ehrlich wins he makes the budget and that’s part of the political Golden Rule – he who has the gold, rules. So screw the Democrats – they’re more than happy to do it to us when they’re in power. It’s our contention as conservatives that following our philosophy of limiting government will lead to more prosperity and freedom for all, not just chosen special interests.

More than likely it’s too late for Murphy’s words to make much of an impact for this election – votes are already being cast and, with our party (led by Ehrlich) now hypocritically embracing the early voting we fought against, Brian Murphy has fewer minds to change. But there is still hope for the next cycle, and if Bob Ehrlich wins and becomes the titular leader of the Maryland GOP he shouldn’t be allowed to just expect the party to back his every move or become a vehicle for his re-election. We already tried that once and we see where we were led.

(On a side note, perhaps it’s time to consider something our neighbor to the south does and limit governors to one four-year term. While we’re at it, 12 years in the General Assembly is more than enough.)

It’s what makes your local Central Committee elections almost as important as choosing the best Republican candidates to follow the party’s conservative, limited-government philosophy through to a seat in the General Assembly. I happen to be running for one of those seats, and I’ll be thankful and humbled if Wicomico County voters place their trust in me for another term.

But it’s more important that our party conveys a message that principles matter and the people should have their say in electing a candidate. This Rule 11 fiasco wasn’t quite as covert as my birth state’s practice of regularly trying to avoid contested primaries in statewide races by cajolery but it still has the stench of a backroom deal written all over it. In an era where more people than ever are fed up with ‘politics as usual’ and don’t think there’s a significant difference between the two parties, there’s no need to make my job as a Republican harder by providing more evidence those perceptions are correct.

Gazette article reasonably fair

Perhaps you didn’t know this – I know Julie Brewington picked up on it after I shared this among my Facebook friends – but I was quoted in yesterday’s Gazette regarding the Maryland GOP’s Rule 11 controversy which has been simmering since May. Reporter C. Benjamin Ford also spoke to fellow blogger Ann Corcoran of the Potomac Tea Party Report, who had the better quote, “What the tea party movement has opposed is this whole concept of sneaky politics, the backroom deals.”

That was my objection from the start. Why should three people make the decision best left to the voters of the First District (for Andy Harris) or the whole state (Bob Ehrlich)? Not saying they aren’t good candidates, but some may prefer the alternatives presented. It’s true that we may not to be able to “tip the scale” but we can send a message.

I just wish he’d quoted me right – I’m “barely left of militia” according to my Facebook page. I do say that tongue-in-cheek to an extent but I’m quite conservative in my outlook. So read the article and see whether you agree.

Thoughts on Murphy v. Ehrlich

In looking up and down my Facebook page recently, I’ve noticed that the tenor of the GOP primary for governor has changed markedly. Seems to me those people who were huge Ehrlich supporters are beginning to get a little nervous and looking over their shoulder at the allies of Brian Murphy. I have no idea why since they’re so certain Bob will win the primary, right?

Of course, the attitude also extends to their treatment of Sarah Palin after she endorsed Murphy. I realize that some of the bloom has come off the rose in the last two years but when you see a screeching harangue telling Sarah to “stay out of Maryland politics” you would think Murphy just got the coveted Barack Obama endorsement. I’m sorry she didn’t pick your guy but I didn’t complain about Mitt Romney meddling in our state and endorsing Bob Ehrlich.

Indeed, I have a preference for Brian Murphy, having now heard both speak in my presence during this campaign. (We’ll count our Lincoln Day Dinner too even though it occurred a few days before he made it official.) I say preference because Bob Ehrlich is also far superior to Martin O’Malley.

But the primary is and should be about VOTERS selecting the best candidate. Needless to say, the revocation of Rule 11 for Bob Ehrlich and Andy Harris upset me greatly. In the case of Harris, at least it can be said that Rob Fisher knew going in that Harris was going to run again since he announced the fact way back in January (Fisher jumped into the race in April.) On the other hand, when Murphy got in his chief opponent was Larry Hogan. Yes, the rumors were flying that Bob would return but he took his sweet time drawing it out.

Instead, the Maryland GOP establishment had planned this summer to be a coronation tour for Ehrlich. The convention was all about him, but as I wrote back then:

Yes, it can be argued that Murphy has little chance but at least he put his name on the line while someone was dithering about which race to run in – if he would run at all. I think we owed him the opportunity to speak, or else be neutral in the race and find a different keynote speaker.

Looks like there’s a little competition here despite the best efforts of the Maryland Republican Party establishment to pick winners and losers.

Then again, when it comes to the Maryland Republican Party establishment – well, we don’t see eye to eye too often. Longtime readers may recall this fiasco, but remember how well that whole McCain thing worked out? Hey, that brings me back to Sarah Palin!

(Oh, and just for the record my initial choice for the GOP nomination was Rep. Duncan Hunter of California. McCain was WAY down the list. Maybe if they listened to me then…)

Obviously when Sarah Palin endorsed Brian Murphy the reaction from the Ehrlich camp was to belittle Palin as much as possible. Bob Ehrlich as much as said so in his remarks on the situation and Mark Newgent of Red Maryland, a bastion of Murphy-bashing, darkly intoned that Palin’s endorsement was an inside job by Martin O’Malley. Mark, I respect your work but you’re giving Martin way too much credit for being too clever by half. Do I need to come back and set you folks straight?

As I said at the start, I have nothing against Bob Ehrlich – if he wins the primary, he’s got my vote in November (presuming he does nothing totally foolish like veer to O’Malley’s left on issues.) But I think it would be enlightening to see the two of them battle it out in a debate and let the GOP voters decide who’s best – of course that will never happen because the Ehrlich campaign would be afraid to give O’Malley ammunition regarding Bob’s record (hint to Ehrlich campaign: I’m sure they’ve already dug it up and will use it. They’ve already gone negative!)

There’s no doubt I’d like to see a Republican Party united as of September 15. In the end, it seems to me that all this sniping by Ehrlich backers is insurance in case the worst happens and Martin O’Malley beats him in November – hello, scapegoat, thy name is Brian Murphy. But they better not say that around me because I’ll call them on it.

Seldom is a primary season remembered by voters in November – the lone exception may be Andy Harris in 2008 and guess what? It was because the GOP was divided by a bitter primary and a sour grapes loser. I don’t see Brian Murphy or his supporters playing that role and I damn well hope Ehrlich’s backers don’t play that game if Murphy wins. But the Maryland GOP may be complicit because they shielded Bob from having to work as hard on building his campaign over the summer.

A thoughtful treatise

A Western Maryland blogger and TEA Party activist raises some good questions about Bob Ehrlich (h/t Blue Ridge Forum).

While the TEA Party movement locally may be slowly fading away as a vehicle of protest (no July 4th TEA Party was scheduled in Salisbury this year and attendance at April’s event was disappointingly low) there’s still that simmering resentment at party politics in general and the GOP in particular.

It’s expressed in an undercurrent of backlash among certain conservative voters against Bob Ehrlich and Eric Wargotz, who are perceived by them as the “establishment” Republican candidates. Instead, they’re gravitating toward upstart Brian Murphy in the GOP primary for governor as Murphy doesn’t seem to be ashamed of having conservative views. The same goes for Jim Rutledge (and perhaps one or two others on a lesser scale) for the U.S. Senate nod.

The problem for Republicans is that they have a group who’s been proven willing to fight for goals they believe in, but may be put off by the more centrist candidates. Many TEA Partiers (including myself) draw their inspiration from Ronald Reagan, who was thought by the conventional wisdom and many in blueblood country club Republican circles to be unelectable. They had their way in 1976 and their choice (President Ford) lost the election.

But then 1980 came along and their candidate (George H.W. Bush) lost the nomination to Reagan, who as we know blew out President Carter in the election. When Bush was elected in 1988 on Reagan’s coattails, he caved to the centrists – “read my lips,” anyone? – and lost to Bill Clinton. That happened in part because H. Ross Perot, who was more appealing to conservatives, ran on the Reform Party ticket. (Hey, I voted for him in 1992 as well. But I talked my ex-spouse out of voting for Clinton into voting for him so it was a wash.)

I know many of you see this as ancient history, but there are a lot of people around my age who fondly remember the Reagan years and wonder what happened to that America. I know I do.

Right now, as far as our economy goes, we are in a situation not unlike the situation 28 years ago in which Reagan found himself – high unemployment and a stagnant economy. But with Reagan we were on the upswing from the dismal Carter years and beginning about 1983 we began a roaring era of prosperity. I wouldn’t bet on that given the current administration and their economic prescriptions.

So people are pretty upset – mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore. But the perception has been cleverly placed in people’s minds that the GOP was to blame for the current economic situation. Perhaps they’re right, but it wasn’t conservative economic policies which put us into this malaise – instead it was catering to centrists and liberals who thought only government could dig us out of the hole.

And TEA Party participants believe this as well, so a centrist Republican may say all the right things but not everyone will buy what they’re selling. Once the ballot is set, I’ll be the guy asking the questions.

A rocky road to recovery

First of all I’d like to congratulate Julie Bykowicz and the Sun for writing an article on the Maryland GOP which omits most of the backhanded complements and snide remarks. But, as always, the party’s newfound success begs the question: does it have too many eggs in Bob Ehrlich’s basket?

There’s little doubt that, for better or worse, Bob Ehrlich has been cast as the party’s savior in 2010. Yes, there are some conservatives who don’t care for some of Ehrlich’s actions while he was governor and Bob has a game but underfunded challenger in political newcomer Brian Murphy – as Julie points out, former GOP chair Jim Pelura is in his corner.

(continued on my Examiner.com page…)