Eric Wargotz – Page 3

35th Annual Tawes Crab and Clam Bake in pictures and text

As the old saying goes, there are two sides to (almost) every story, and the annual event in Crisfield provides plenty of comparisons.

Take the location for example – a marina filled with boats valued in the tens of thousands of dollars hard by low-income housing. Denizens of the immediate neighborhood look forward to the Clam Bake as it provides an opportunity to sell parking spots to people who don’t wish to walk as far to the event.

In short, they create their own economic development. But bringing 3,500 visitors to Crisfield is an economic boost to the area.

While the event has a reputation as a political stop, there is a business element there too. Some companies look to get or keep their name out in the area.

Others use it as a reward to their customers, hosting elaborate parties within the party.

But the crowd was noticeably smaller than last year’s. Yes, this is not an election year but even the number of businesses which took tent space seemed smaller. How often do you see this?

Maybe it’s something about Area 51? But this is a shot I took around 1:30 or so at the peak of the festivities.

Compare that crowd to this still shot from last year.

Even the mugs weren’t being snatched up as quickly.

As you’ll notice in the panoramic picture, there are two main areas where crowds gather. On one side are the smaller tents set up for businesses and groups. But many people sit in the pavilion and enjoy musical entertainment.

I can’t say I’m a fan of country or bluegrass, but a number of people sat under the pavilion to listen.

I know, I know – you readers are saying, “Michael, you have a political website. What’s the political dirt?” Well, there are two sides to that as well.

One guy who seems to straddle that line is Bruce Bereano, who annually has among the largest tents and his own “corner.” However, with a revised setup this year he was more in the middle.

In a nice touch, Bereano has honored a local leader for the last couple years.

If you don’t believe he works to both sides of the aisle, consider that the following two signs were close together on his tent.

Could this be the gubernatorial matchup for 2014? Peter Franchot could obviously be entrenched as Comptroller for as long as he wants to be but my feeling is he wants something more. Meanwhile, David Craig is term-limited as Harford County Executive but obviously has a run for something in mind three years hence. My guess would be that “something” is a long-term stay in Government House.

A matchup which will occur sooner is a statewide battle for the U.S. Senate seat held by Ben Cardin. Presumably he was a little busy today, but a number of volunteers were sporting his colors and registering voters as they stood in the food lines.

Arriving a little later was a man who’s aiming to be his Republican rival, Dan Bongino. Here he’s talking to Bill Harris of Cecil County.

I also spied Eric Wargotz there with his wife. But he wasn’t openly campaigning at this time.

Like Senator Cardin, Congressman Andy Harris was likely a little busy today but had volunteers and signs with a sharply pointed message about. Eventually a lot of folks were wearing yellow Harris shirts.

By gosh, I think Andy is right. But there was someone quite familiar to him there.

Allow me to pose a question. Why would you spend $200 on tickets and a half tank of gas to come down and eat crabs one can probably get just as readily in Queen Anne’s County? Perhaps it’s a case of best two out of three? For all his talk about time with the family I don’t think, given the power and prestige of a seat in Congress, he can let it go just to be a cheerleader for Ben Cardin.

And there were a few cheerleaders for our state’s junior Senator.

Yet the Democrats had a modest, unassuming presence compared to the GOP.

That’s not to say both parties weren’t represented, to be sure. Here’s two of our best freshman Delegates, Charles Otto and Justin Ready.

They weren’t the only freshmen Republicans there, as I saw Michael Hough, Kathy Szeliga, and of course my Delegate Mike McDermott at the event.

Meanwhile, Wicomico County Executive Rick Pollitt was reaching across the aisle, greeting old friends in the Somerset County Republican tent.

On the other hand, Norm Conway was holed up around the Democrats’ base.

Even the unaffiliated were there. Yes, last I checked Laura Mitchell of Salisbury City Council doesn’t state a party affiliation. I did catch up to her just outside the Democratic tent, though.

Nor was national politics forgotten. Kevin Waterman (who some may know for the Questing for Atlantis website) came supporting his choice for President, Gary Johnson.

Republican politics must run in that family – his mother Diana (who I cut off in the photo) is First Vice-Chair of the Maryland GOP.

Needless to say, the media was there as well. WBOC-TV was on location shooting footage, and I saw print reporters and fellow bloggers about, too.

But I’m curious if anyone else will report on this tidbit.

Notice the flag placed in the corner of the Democrats’ tent? It’s the Wicomico County flag.

Now I’m not convinced that the official imprimatur of our fair county should be in that tent – granted, Democrats have a plurality of voters here but Republicans hold more elected seats in county government. If it’s an endorsement of Democratic principles (such as they are) for our county, consider me as a conscientious objector.

So while the turnout was smaller than in years past, it was still a good event for the Crisfield community. And the rain, which I noticed on my drive back, stayed away.

Look for an interesting cast of characters for next year’s event, which should fall after the 2012 primary on July 18, 2012.

Senate hopeful Bongino featured WCRC speaker

For the first time since Brian Murphy spoke to us last July, a statewide candidate will grace the Wicomico County Republican Club stage – ironically, with a boost from the aforementioned 2010 candidate for governor.

Daniel Bongino is making his first political run a challenging one by running in a statewide race to unseat incumbent Senator Ben Cardin. Cardin defeated former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele in 2006, keeping the seat in Democratic hands after longtime Senator Paul Sarbanes retired following a thirty-year run.

Featuring the tagline, “we did nothing wrong, government failed us,” Bongino’s key issues appear to be the economy, health care, energy, the environment, national security, and immigration. Certainly he’ll discuss these and other topics Monday evening.

The meeting, as always, will be held at the Chamber of Commerce building at 144 E. Main Street in downtown Salisbury. We gather for a social time at 6:30 p.m. with the meeting beginning around 7:00.

It’s likely that Bongino will be the first of several GOP Senatorial candidates to grace our stage, since six people are currently in the race. However, Bongino is coming off a strong second-place finish in my most recent Senate poll, just behind 2010 nominee Eric Wargotz.

A meaningless poll?

As you may have noticed the last few days, my sidebar had a poll which asked: if the election were held today, who would you support for Maryland’s GOP Senate nomination?

Well, I pulled the poll earlier today since it had run its course, and here are the results (drum roll please…):

Eric Wargotz, 2,116 votes (44.87%)
Daniel Bongino, 1,711 votes (36.28%)
William Capps, 831 votes (17.62%)
Corrogan Vaughn, 38 votes (0.81%)
Robert Broadus, 10 votes (0.21%)
Rick Hoover, 9 votes (0.19%)

One person wrote in “Bolton”, who I take to mean John Bolton. I didn’t know he was a Maryland resident.

As I’ve said all along, this was far from a scientific poll because I allowed repeat voting – in fact, I encouraged it. To that end, I did a spreadsheet (printed in .pdf form) which shows how the poll evolved over time as I broke out the numbers by timespan. There you can see where repeat votes were racked up for the various candidates, so it’s easy to tell that someone came in and stacked the poll to help out a particular candidate over a span of time. (It made for some incredible page view numbers, too – thanks!)

Yet I think the numbers aren’t all that far off from reality. Let’s look at a few facts here.

In a ten-person primary race last year, Eric Wargotz received less than 40 percent of the vote. His main competition was a political newcomer who quickly became a TEA Party favorite in Jim Rutledge – together they pulled about 70 percent of the vote, with no one else attaining a double-digit percentage.

This is a six-person race at the moment, and Wargotz has just under 45% in this poll. Realistically, that’s close to his base of Republican support from last year and it’s probably good enough to win. Running in second place? Well, he’s a political newcomer who should be able to count on a lot of support from the TEA Party since he has the backing of another popular fiscal conservative in 2010 gubernatorial hopeful Brian Murphy. Daniel Bongino has 36 percent, which roughly parallels Eric’s nine-point win in 2010.

Too, the chief remaining votegetter is William Capps, who probably wouldn’t poll 18 percent in reality but would likely draw a high single-digit number based on a little name recognition. Since there will likely be more candidates in the mix, his overstated number here would probably erode a bit to a more realistic number among the latecomers who may split about 10 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, the bottom three are probably pretty close to their actual base of support since they are perennial candidates who haven’t shown well before.

My theory in doing this poll as I did is that people who are passionate enough to attempt to rig an internet poll to their chosen candidate’s advantage exist in the same relative number as support in real life. In other words, the person (or persons) who voted continually hundreds of times for Eric Wargotz exist in direct proportion poll-wise to those who would do the same for Bongino, Capps, et. al. so the poll may have some relative validity. (And quite honestly, if it drives a few extra people to my website that’s good for me.)

So I wouldn’t be surprised if the support for these people at this early stage isn’t all that far off the mark. I would say Bongino and Capps may be outperforming reality by five to ten points here, but remember there is no “undecided” in my polling to cloud the picture. Toss that group in and almost everyone would lose a dozen points or so.

Suffice to say that the race can’t be conceded to the guy who has the most name recognition (Eric Wargotz) quite yet. It may turn out to be yet another plurality race won by attrition. The early primary will be to Eric’s advantage, of course, but by no means is he a lock for the nomination.

A wild polling ride

As you may have noticed, I’ve placed one of my infamous political polls in the sidebar.

My recollection from when I did this last year was that my polls may not necessarily be the best indicator of public sentiment, but they are pretty good at seeing how passionate backing for a candidate is. For example, I’ve been tracking interim totals over the time the poll’s been up to see the ebb and flow of trends.

I put the poll up late Wednesday evening. When I went to bed early Thursday morning there weren’t a lot of votes yet, but I did find out someone in the Capps campaign reads the site. The totals at that point: Capps 7, Bongino 3, Wargotz 1.

So I woke up Thursday morning and went about my day. Checking in at 4:00 that afternoon, the updated figures were: Bongino 20, Capps 16, Wargotz 1. Someone woke up the Bongino camp, I guess.

But then Thursday evening there was a concerted Eric Wargotz push, so much so that when I went to bed around midnight the revised totals were: Wargotz 63, Capps 25, Bongino 20, Vaughn 3, Broadus 1, and Hoover 1. Someone got the others on the board about 24 hours into the poll (although Broadus was added to the poll on Thursday afternoon.)

The roller-coaster ride continued this morning as the Capps forces went back to work: Capps 160, Bongino 105, Wargotz 94, Vaughn 35, Hoover 5, Broadus 4.

But then the Capps surge stopped and Bongino is trending – as of this moment it’s Bongino 166, Capps 160, Wargotz 94, Vaughn 35, Broadus 5, Hoover 5. In other words, over the last 7 hours all but one vote went to Bongino.

Obviously I don’t do a scientific poll. But as I noted above one thing this does measure to some extent is the passion and organization behind a candidate. I figure that people who are out to stack a poll such as mine exist in proportion to the actual support they have in the population, give or take a few. (I can also tell you it’s making my page load number huge today – normally I get about 1.3 to 1.5 page loads per reader; today it’s about 3.5 per.) So if there’s only 1 person in 100 who would stack a poll for Rick Hoover vs. 40 who would for Eric Wargotz, that’s probably how the poll should work too, more or less. And my readership likely trends a little more conservative than the average GOP voter.

It’s a lot of fun for me to watch, though, and it makes for an interesting post. That’s what counts.

Murphy’s man

After teasing the Maryland public over the last week, 2010 gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy made it official: he’s not running for the U.S. Senate. Instead, he’s backing a first-time candidate who’s spent most of his professional career in law enforcement and who believes, “we did nothing wrong, government failed us.” If you look at this hopeful’s issue page it reads as a fairly conservative platform both economically and in foreign policy.

Daniel Bongino is a 36-year-old Severna Park resident who has no political resume, but instead has worked for both the Secret Service and the New York City police department over the last sixteen years. It would seem a curious choice for Murphy to be backing this neophyte, but Brian hasn’t played by the conventional wisdom yet and probably won’t be doing so anytime soon.

Of course, the obvious question is whether Bongino will be able to take advantage of Murphy’s backing to vault past the other contenders for the GOP’s U.S. Senate challenger slot. Most figure incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin a virtual lock for re-election for a second term but Daniel joins a fairly diverse field of five Republican contenders; a field which includes 2010 GOP nominee Eric Wargotz. Other Republican aspirants are former District 31 State Senate candidate William Capps, political neophyte Rick Hoover, and perennial candidate Corrogan Vaughn.

Wargotz would have to be considered as the odds-on favorite, but it’s worth noting that Eric only garnered 38% of the vote in a 10-man race last year so a better, well-funded candidate could defeat Wargotz in the primary. (In that primary Jim Rutledge, who had a much smaller campaign war chest but considerable TEA Party backing, finished second with just over 30 percent of the vote.) In theory, the blessing from Murphy, also a TEA Party favorite, could allow Bongino a 25-point base in the primary based on Brian’s support.

If events run true to form, the Republican primary for U.S. Senate next year will attract between seven and ten candidates for the nomination. Some of these will be on the ballot for the umpteenth time and others won’t even file with the FEC because they don’t (or won’t) raise enough money to wage a serious campaign. Given that background and the high-profile support of Murphy, a candidate like Daniel Bongino – even as a first-time officeseeker in a statewide race – will be one to contend with as next April draws closer.

Odds and ends number 28

Have you ever wondered where the phrase ‘odds and ends’ comes from? Me neither, but I use it to describe posts where I have a number of little items which only need a paragraph or two.

Last week I told you about the drive to send SB167 (in-state tuition for illegal immigrants) to referendum. Well, the battle has another supporter in Delegate Justin Ready, a fellow freshman Republican to Delegate Neil Parrott. In an e-mail to supporters, Ready reminded us that:

Perhaps the worst piece of legislation that passed the General Assembly in the just-concluded session was SB 167: The Dream Act, which gives in-state tuition rates (taxpayer funded benefits) to illegal immigrants. It allows them to attend community colleges and the University System at the in-county and in-state rates.

(snip)

We do have an alternative! The Maryland constitution provides for citizens to petition a passed bill to referendum by obtaining signatures. Several of us in the General Assembly have gotten together, led by Del. Neil Parrott from Washington County, to form a petition drive with dozens of pro-rule of law activists around Maryland. In order to put this measure on the ballot in the 2012 election, we must obtain 55,000 signatures from Maryland registered voters by the end of July. We have to obtain about 20,000 by May 31st. However, these petition drives are extremely tricky because the State Board of Elections looks for any excuse to void or disqualify a signature so we estimate that we’ll need about 35,000 by May 31st and probably closer to 100,000 overall.

I think Ready is right on the money insofar as signatures go, but even if they are received the uphill battle really begins as liberals dig out all the so-called “victims” of this heartless TEA Party initiative. Of course, that can be countered by considering who could be aced out of a spot – perhaps a poor minority youth trying to escape poverty? That angle can play well in PG County and Baltimore City.

Speaking of poor legislation, Maryland continues to play Don Quixote tilting at windmills (well, they’re actually turbines) to be built just a few miles off Ocean City. (Oil platforms will spoil the view, but wind turbines won’t? Get real.) In part, this legislation stemmed from a drive to combat so-called global warming just as another push to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative did.

Well, New Jersey may be rethinking its position on RGGI, and a key Senator in that state made it a bipartisan push. Americans for Prosperity shared this news:

When the original legislation paving the way for New Jersey’s entry into RGGI was passed in 2008, it was done so on a bi-partisan basis. Likewise, dismantling RGGI will require support from members of both political parties.

By joining the movement to repeal RGGI, Senator (Paul) Sarlo became the first Democrat to back the effort to kill this Cap & Trade tax and opened the door for more of his Democrat colleagues in the Legislature to do the same. In fact, at (Thursday’s) press conference Senator Sarlo urged his fellow Democrats today to do just that.

Senator Sarlo did not arrive at this decision lightly. But when presented with the indisputable facts about the RGGI scheme — including its lack of transparency, exploitation by “insiders” looking to speculate and profit
on the backs of ratepayers, as well as the devastating consequences for New Jersey’s economy and jobs — the senator made the call to stand up for New Jersey’s economic future.

Now, I’m not sure if New Jersey leaving RGGI would lead to any other states rethinking their position, although one would suspect newly-installed GOP governors and legislators in Pennsylvania and Maine may be most likely to do so. Unfortunately, Maryland has neither a GOP governor or legislature so utility ratepayers will continue to take it in the shorts for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of Maryland politics, we are now less than a year away from the 2012 primary. (At least we will be when this takes effect.) Hopefully they change the 2014 date to the last week in July because late June is too damn early to me. I like the date as it is in September but federal law changes make that impossible. Nothing like Fedzilla sticking its nose into state’s affairs.

Anyway, I got an e-mail from one of the early U.S. Senate candidates on the GOP side (to face presumptive Democratic nominee, Senator Ben Cardin) offering to do a blog interview with me. So I asked the other two candidates that I’m aware of to match that offer – one is already on the ballot while the other will announce around the first of May.

This doesn’t include Eric Wargotz yet, although my suspicion is that he’ll jump into the race before summer. Hey, I’ll interview him too. He knows I always have plenty of questions.

In case you’re wondering, yes, I’m giving short shrift to two Democratic hopefuls. But the contest for both Raymond Levi Blagmon and perennial candidate Lih Young will be to manage to get one percent of the vote.

I think that’s enough grist for the mill. I bet you all thought I was taking another long weekend off from the political but you have to admit we’re in the silly season now. The only real big news seems to be the growing GOP Presidental field but no one is really going to be paying much attention to that until at least the Ames Straw Poll and more likely after Labor Day when things start getting serious. By then we’ll have a decent idea of the contenders and the pretenders.

Should he stay (home) or should he go (for Senate)?

As of yesterday, it’s been 19 weeks since Dr. Eric Wargotz was crushed by 26 points in his election matchup against Senator Barbara Mikulski. However, Eric carried 12 counties and managed to do somewhat better than 2004 nominee (and now State Senator) E.J. Pipkin, who lost by 31 points and carried only 7 counties.

But now Wargotz may have his sights set on a (presumably) more vulnerable target in Maryland’s junior Senator, Ben Cardin. (After all, Cardin ‘only’ beat Michael Steele by 10 points in 2006.) Yesterday he debuted a Facebook ‘event’ dubbed “Help Eric Wargotz decide to enter the Maryland US Senate race 2012.” Still, given the fact he’s occasionally updated his election Facebook page since his loss my suspicion was that he was bound to give it another shot regardless.

Moreover, Eric will have a few additional advantages this time around – name recognition with voters, experience gained from a recent statewide run, and (most likely) a fairly shallow primary field. The biggest name considering a 2012 campaign is Delegate Pat McDonough of Baltimore County, who thought about a run for Governor last year but this time may opt to challenge Second District Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger. Last year’s chief Senate contender, Jim Rutledge, is more inclined to wait for 2014 opportunities as rumor has it.

So it looks like Eric will be hitting the campaign trail once again; obviously those who have responded to his Facebook are urging him to go for it. (As if anyone would tell him, nah, skip this race.) Barring any big names out of the Maryland General Assembly jumping into the race, it would appear that Wargotz would be the odds-on favorite for the GOP nod once again.

Former MDGOP Chair candidate makes surprising choice

So much for my short hiatus from MDGOP politics – you could have knocked me over with a feather.

As he was preparing for a long-planned trip to Algeria, Andrew Langer wrote the following on his Facebook page:

I’m asking you to support Mary Kane for Chairman this Saturday. I know this may come as a surprise to some of you, but since withdrawing from the race last week, I’ve had the opportunity to have a number of conversations with Mary—and it became clear to me that we share the same vision for the MDGOP. It is a vision of strength and unity, one in which we all work together towards a common goal of electoral victory.

Mary has expressed tremendous enthusiasm for the principles that were articulated in my Vision 2010 statement—enthusiasm to the point that she has asked me to work with her on implementing those visions. So those of you who were excited about the ideas contained in that document, you should rest assured that under Mary Kane’s leadership (with all of us working together), those ideas will move from concept into reality.

Mary also has a few key factors which make her the best choice for us in 2010:

1)      She has pledged that she is not using the Chairmanship of MDGOP as a springboard to another office. I know that is an area of concern for many people, as we want a Chairman who is going to be focused on building and strengthening the MDGOP, not merely holding a post or adding to a resume. This is implicit in Mary’s understanding;

2)      Mary has proven organizational experience. This cannot be understated—whoever comes into this job ought to know how to manage an organization. This is not the same as running things unilaterally—a great leader knows how to bring people together and move them towards a common goal. She has already offered me some solid ideas as to how to bring the party together, and get the executive team working as a core group. I think those ideas terrific;

3)      She has excellent fundraising credentials and connections. Perhaps the most important role of a party chairman is raising money—and as someone who runs a non-profit organization, I can tell you that takes know-how and know-who. You need to know the art of fundraising, and have some great ideas as to where that money is going to come from. Again, Mary and I have talked about the development efforts articulated in my Vision statement, and other ideas that she has. I am more-than-satisfied that she is going to be able to not only build on our fundraising successes of the past year, but substantially pass them.

We need to move beyond the clique mentality. And I say this as someone who hold deeply conservative and libertarian beliefs. I believe that we can grow this party by building on those core values, and created a plan for us to get there.

With Mary Kane as Chairman, we can implement that plan.

Fair enough. However, there are other candidates who fall under each of the aspects Andrew pointed out about Mary Kane as well. I would suspect that, with the possible exception of Alex Mooney, we probably won’t see the other contenders deciding to run for something in 2012 or 2014. And this was the reason Eric Wargotz took a pass on the position.

Personally I would rate fundraising and messaging over organization, and one could also argue that others in the race excelled more at both aspects than Mary did.

Yet what makes this announcement by Langer most surprising is that Kane is perceived by many as the “establishment” candidate while Andrew has deep experience with the TEA Party and the conservative activist movement. Certainly Mary didn’t step far outside her running mate’s moderate campaign to endorse the TEA Party message.

It will be interesting to see whether this endorsement by Langer could convince a few more people within the convention to vote for Mary. The appeal may work for backers of some better than others, but I can’t see those new, more conservative TEA Party activists who attend the convention embracing Mary Kane right away. They’re the ones who feel left out of that “clique mentality” and some may even whisper the word, “sellout.” Unfortunately, Langer won’t be around to refute the charge.

Wargotz: ‘I will forgo this unique opportunity’

Certainly, some movement conservatives and GOP purists will rejoice at this news but this also helps pave the way for the favorite in the MDGOP Chair race. Eric Wargotz had this to say yesterday:

“I am both humbled and honored to have many central committee members, and supporters rallying me to run for the Chairman position. The past couple of weeks have been spent carefully considering this opportunity to lead our State party.

The upcoming term presents much opportunity for the Maryland Republican Party to focus its message and thus make substantive gains. Hopefully, a sharpened one carefully crafted based on traditional Conservative values with a goal towards truly achieving a two-party system in our great State.

In conjunction with family, friends, supporters and trusted advisors I have reached the conclusion that although I am up for the challenge of leading this effort as Chairman, I will forgo this unique opportunity at this time as I continue to strongly consider a run for elected office in the near future.

Thus, I offer my sincere congratulations to all nominees for Chairman of the Maryland Republican Party. I pledge my support, time and energy in assisting the new Chairman and the incoming Officers and Executive Board. Furthermore, I will continue to work with the Republican Party and others to promote core Conservative values in Maryland and throughout the Nation.”

In the short term, this probably helps the chances of Mary Kane more than anyone since my suspicion is that much of Eric’s support will gravitate toward her. But I think this will also give Alex Mooney the excuse to make his final decision whether to go for Chair or 1st Vice Chair. I’ll certainly be reviewing the odds later today.

Yet there is a longer-term implication to this. The MDGOP bylaws clearly state “(n)o individual may either hold or seek elected public office while serving as an officer of the party.” While Eric has more statewide name recognition and theoretically wouldn’t need to spend time introducing himself to voters, the 2012 campaign beckons and again there’s an U.S. Senate seat up for election, held by Ben Cardin. (In theory, he could also run for Congress if he wants to take on a GOP incumbent, but I doubt he would do that.) With the primary held somewhere in February or March, Eric would probably only be Chair for a matter of months before resigning to seek office.

To me, it’s the clearest indication yet that he’s going to try again, and perhaps it’s a shot across the bow at competition – remember, members of the General Assembly can run ‘from cover’ in 2012, not risking their seats should they be unsuccessful.

In any event, I can scratch another name off the list.

In other news, I just got off the phone with Sam Hale and he told me I’ll have his answers to my questions for the new Chair later today. What sayeth the rest of you in the race – are you chicken? Afraid to answer queries from a voter?

Be aware I meet with a pretty significant voting bloc in the race tomorrow. I know one other contender will be at this meeting in person, so you might wish to take some time today to gather your thoughts. Just saying.

The MDGOP horserace

(This post has been entirely updated here.)

I’ve had enough people ask me who I think is going to be chair that I’ve decided to lay odds on what I think would happen. (Odds are for amusement only, no wagering please.)

Here is the race as I see it and why. I’ll update this in a week or so before the race; by then we should have a pretty good idea of the field. (Now updated to reflect two withdrawals – Andrew Langer and Eric Wargotz.)

Mary Kane (4-1): The early favorite based on name recognition and the number of Ehrlich loyalists still in the state party. But this probably won’t be a two- or three-horse race in the beginning, and the question is just how much support she can muster beyond this core constituency. Will she have enough in the tank if the race turns out to be a marathon? And are party regulars ready to give the Republicans back to the Kane family? However, her odds improved once Eric Wargotz withdrew since they seemed to me to be drawing from the same voter bloc.
Alex Mooney (10-1): The longer he waits to decide whether to get into the race (as of 12-2 he’s still oscillating between Chair and 1st Vice-Chair), the less chance he has of winning it. He has two strikes against him: a perception that he’s simply doing this to keep his 2012-2014 options open and the similar geographical disparity which also would have hurt Eric Wargotz. However, his odds can vastly improve if he decides to get in and pledges to use the position as a conservative bully pulpit – I think the withdrawal of Wargotz will push him into the Chair race, thus his odds got much better. And with the withdrawals of the other ‘outstate’ candidates he can now play the ‘us vs. them’ angle.
William Campbell (12-1): Probably the most low-key among those in the field, Campbell could be the compromise candidate the party turns to in an otherwise deadlocked race. While he has run for statewide office, he’s a political outsider who may get the nod based on the perception he’s not taking the position to climb a career political ladder. In terms of fiscal expertise, though, Campbell is hard to top.
Sam Hale (12-1): Hale represents the Brian Murphy wing of the party, and will likely have a lot of support among the most conservative in the party. Yet the questions which will nag him will be those of his young age and his fundraising ability, particularly since he’s likely the most unknown quantity among the contenders. They may not wish to take a flyer on this unproven rookie unless he can press the flesh and impress. He’s unafraid of questions, though, and that could help.
Carmen Amedori (15-1): Another candidate who wouldn’t win on the first ballot, but could emerge as a compromise choice. However, she has to overcome the perception of flakiness based on her behavior during the 2010 campaign – her explanation made sense to some but left other supporters of both Brian Murphy and Bob Ehrlich fuming. She will need to mend fences quickly to have a chance.
Mike Esteve (20-1): He’s already in charge of a state operation, but the Maryland College Republicans are a far cry from their parent organization. Like Sam Hale, there’s going to be the question of youth used against him, except that Mike is even younger. While the group as a whole needs to get younger, I can’t see how he succeeds – on the other hand, he only needs to convince about 150 people.
The field (75-1): Since nominations can be made from the floor (if a 2/3 majority chooses to do so) any number of names could surface at the convention, including past chairmen or other GOP luminaries. Highly unlikely but possible nonetheless.

On Sunday I submitted a list of questions to the contenders whom I know of; as of the time I wrote this last night no one had replied. (As of 12-3 Sam Hale is the lone reply.) Obviously I’m taking a dim view of those who won’t answer simple but direct questions about how they’ll change the party.

Original odds 11/30/10: Kane 5-1, Wargotz 8-1, Campbell 10-1, Andrew Langer 12-1 (withdrew), Hale 15-1, Amedori 18-1, Mooney 20-1, Esteve 25-1, field 50-1.

First revision 12/2/10: Kane 5-1, Eric Wargotz 7-1 (withdrew), Campbell 10-1, Hale 12-1, Amedori 15-1, Mooney 15-1, Esteve 20-1, field 75-1.

A key endorsement

One of the first big-name endorsements in the MDGOP Chair race came last night.

In a note to his supporters on his Facebook page, Jim Rutledge laid out some of the reasons he supports Maryland Society of Patriots head Sam Hale:

He “is a proven leader at the grassroots, people-to-people level of persuasion.” Jim recounts how Sam founded the Maryland Society of Patriots and that it became a favorite stop for conservative candidates courting votes.
He is “honest and transparent” and gives “straight talk from an intelligent mind.”
He “has a work ethic second to none…his energy is badly needed to move us forward in Maryland.”
He “is an optimist and visionary” who is “not daunted in his passion for turning the tide of freedom” despite living in the liberal enclave of Montgomery County.
He “is a Christian who understands the call to civic activism,” and who “puts his faith into action.”
He “is young and well-educated…youth and energy attract youth and energy.”
Finally, he “is independent from the influences of the Washington, D.C. establishment.”

Truthfully, it’s not surprising Rutledge would place his backing behind a party outsider, as Hale may be the only aspirant to not either have been a 2010 candidate (Amedori, Campbell, Kane, Mooney, Wargotz) or involved with the Maryland GOP in some other fashion (Esteve is head of the Maryland College Republicans and Langer is on the Queen Anne’s County Central Committee.)

I haven’t taken the opportunity to speak to Sam yet, but as I noted yesterday he did an interview for RedState with Matt Newman. Later this week I’m thinking about sending out my own set of questions to see who has the guts to reply – after all, I’m one of the few people who are discussing the issue publicly to actually have some say in the matter.

It’s important to me that I make the best-informed decision I can to advance the conservative principles I believe in. Unlike some party chairmen, I put principle over party as much as I can (granted, it can’t always work that way – I do have some pragmatism.) So, those of you I think are in the running should be on the lookout.

Amedori jumps into Chair race

Update 10 a.m.: Another entrant into the race is 2010 Comptroller candidate William Campbell.

Add a Lower Shore name to the Maryland GOP Chair mix, and Mary Kane won’t be the only woman seeking the post.

Carmen Amedori, who served in the House of Delegates from 1999-2004 representing Carroll County and had abortive runs for both U.S. Senator and lieutenant governor in the past year, is now setting her sights on the party’s top post. She joins a growing field of aspirants for the job, many of whom are campaign veterans themselves.

Carmen, who recently relocated to Ocean City, didn’t remain on a political hiatus too long after a whirlwind spring which saw her featured in two statewide races. She won a spot on the Worcester County Central Committee in September and lent her expertise to the campaign of House of Delegates candidate Marty Pusey. Pusey finished third but drew a respectable 25% of the vote in a four-person field.

Yet the former Ehrlich appointee drew fire for a withering criticism of her former boss upon joining the Murphy campaign, only to re-endorse him upon dropping out. In part, she claimed, it was to deflect blame from Brian should Ehrlich lose (as he eventually did) – “if there was going to be a loss to O’Malley, let it be Bob’s loss.” This probably won’t endear her to Bob’s strongest backers.

However, Carmen thinks she can overcome this:

We need to build this party. That means, someone like me who has African American conservative and soft Democrat friends who would go door to door to with me to help convert membership and also someone who will not be percieved by the press as someone who is so far right that we will never see light of day in Maryland. I am a strong conservative. But I do have friends on both sides and many who are attracted to my ability to communicate with everyone.

She joins a rapidly growing field that may include fellow U.S. Senate candidate Eric Wargotz along with Kane and two other less-known hopefuls who have already announced their candidacy, Mike Esteve and Sam Hale.