A winner’s ad

Now this is a good political advertisement. It’s not overly negative, but promotes a message that we have the chance to correct our mistakes. Cede no ground, baby!

“I believe in America. I believe those successes are right around the corner.” Now that’s a true friend talking.

I look at the whole situation this way. For too long, people have written off Republicans in Maryland because it’s such a hopelessly Democratic state. But political pundits and the so-called conventional wisdom fail to ask the key question: aren’t people tired of the same old thing?

Don’t people get worn out having to deal with the same problems year after year: higher and higher taxes, more cronyism and corruption in government, and a worse quality of life as things fall apart? Why are our children not being as well educated, anyway? Isn’t the American Dream that of your kids having a better life? What happened to it?

Listen, I tend to blame one political party for many of our faults, but in countless ways it’s really the fault of all of us. Shame on us for  just simply going with the lesser of two evils, or the guy whose name they know but one for whom they couldn’t name a single accomplishment, or the one who looks like such a great guy on TV as opposed to the guy they’ve never heard of because they don’t do their political homework. If ignorance is bliss, then we must be the most politically happy people in the world.

We may get the government we deserve, but it’s not the government I want. This shouldn’t be the government you want, either. We can do better; we’ve tried it their way for eighty (almost) uninterrupted years and one has to agree this experiment in liberty created by our Founding Fathers has been botched, with the only question now remaining (and the one to be answered in this election) being whether the decline is reversible or, indeed, whether the experiment is even redeemable at all.

This Dan Bongino guy deserves a chance, and while some may rightfully argue he’s untested in the ways of politics, I would have a lot more faith in someone who made an honest living putting his life on the line for another man than one who has lived off the good graces of the electorate via a familiar surname for over 4 1/2 decades. What have we really received from career politicians anyway?

It’s time for average people to truly have a voice, and this video should have a helluva lot more views than the 150 or so it had when I embedded it. So let’s get to work.

 

Who knew the guy could write?

I suppose this could fall once again into the category I alluded to last week in my odds and ends post, Sunday evening reading. But this article on RedState by U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino hits the subject on the head like few pundits and even fewer Beltway insiders can. (I set this link up to open in a new window, so go ahead and read it then come back here.)

Are you back? Pretty good stuff, huh?

Over the last seventeen years or so that I’ve been politically involved, I’ve heard any number of officeholders and challengers who can talk up a blue streak and sound like they have empathy for the common man. Nine times out of ten there’s at least some amount of  acting ability involved because, if you listen and see how the person acts you can tell he or she is putting on a show and telling people what they think they want to hear.

But Dan Bongino is the exception to the rule. Now I’m not going to lie to you and tell you we are best buddies but we have a professional relationship insofar as I’ve covered his campaign for about a year and spoken to him both in person and on the phone a number of times. The thing I find most strange, though, is that Dan comes from a law enforcement background so one would assume he’s a no-nonsense, by-the-book, tough as nails guy – but he’s really not. I hesitate to use the word “sensitive” because it conveys an impression that he would be wishy-washy as far as principles go – although it’s obvious that with no voting record to go by we have something of a blank slate on our hands – but he seems to have a big heart, thoughtful beliefs, and an undying love for his family. Then again, many millions of fathers have that same quality but Dan is the one in question running for office.

Even so, the most salient point made by Bongino is this:

The President’s statements are equally infuriating because he is attempting to create a fissure between Americans where there isn’t one. No Republican I am aware of is running for office on a platform of no taxes, no roads, no teachers and no military. I cite these examples because the President chose to mention the use of roads, the work of good teachers and the development of the backbone of the modern internet, through a military research initiative, as examples of how government should be the primary recipient of accolades for individual success. This is absurd and displays a backward logic which is hard to justify.

Conservatives tend to have their argument oversimplified when we say we want government out of the way. There are functions of government which practically everyone agrees are legitimate duties for the common good: as examples, local jurisdictions are charged with building and maintaining public roads and other infrastructure and providing for public safety through fire and police departments; meanwhile states handle things in areas such as the judicial system and elections, and the federal government is charged with items like national defense, coining money, and other roles spelled out in the Constitution. This isn’t meant to be an exhaustive list of all functions, but the idea seems to be that the best government is the one closest to the people.

So when President Obama made his Roanoke remarks it showed a clear misunderstanding of the proper role of government. Certainly our elected leaders can create the conditions for a businessman to succeed, but what Obama is missing is that the entrepreneur is taking the initiative that someone else more content to sit on the couch and watch old movies all day chooses not to. The Bongino example of his wife working on a project at 5 a.m. while comforting a cranky baby is something those who grew businesses can relate to in some manner.

It’s not perfect, but the ideal in America is equality of opportunity – unfortunately, it appears the modern federal government tries to put their finger on the scale more often than not in an attempt to artificially create an equality of outcome that’s not possible when those who play the game are simple human beings. If I had to make a living building things with my hands I would have a quite difficult time succeeding on my own, but if the government took an interest in my plight and decided that people had to buy my wares or use my services regardless of the quality, the country would be poorer as a whole. In a nutshell, that’s the problem with how the government tries to pick winners – they create a lot of undeserving losers.

And telling people who know perfectly well the sacrifices they made to succeed that it was only because government got involved? Yeah, I’m pissed too.

So when you consider the Bongino piece, ask yourself if you would believe the same thing coming from the pen of “our friend” Ben Cardin? Well, considering that the only thing Ben built for himself was a political career that’s spanned four and a half decades, one has to wonder which of the two really relates better to the average Maryland working family? The answer is clear once you read Dan’s post.

O’Malley keeps shooting his foot

Since the beginning of July, Governor Martin O’Malley has made nationwide news in a number of ways, but not necessarily with the headlines he may have preferred.

First we had the Change Maryland tax exodus report that I’ve talked about at some length – and so have a number of others. (Yes, there are eight different links in that sentence.) That begat other statements like this one from GOP U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino, who also made a swipe at opponent Ben Cardin – who is not my friend, by the way:

Sensing the futility of having to defend our worsening national and local economy, Senator Cardin, absent a few well-scripted photo ops, has been missing in action as a public face for the current administration. Happily filling in is our Governor, who prefers television appearances to actual governing. Never more than a breath away from a mimed sound bite, fed to him by the current administration, he continues to intentionally mislead the American people and Marylanders regarding the perilous state of the U.S. and Maryland economies, perpetually stating that both are “moving forward”.

Governor O’Malley, take off your blinders and put aside your Presidential aspirations. The U.S. economy is in the midst of the worst recovery in modern times and our great state has become an economic joke. We currently rank 42nd out of 50 in a recent report on state’s business environments, followed by another report showing a mass exodus of successful Marylanders avoiding our punishing tax load. (Emphasis in original.)

Even better was this from radio talker Mark Levin, who’s not known for mincing words (h/t to Jackie Wellfonder):

And the guy who started this whole news cycle, Change Maryland head Larry Hogan, himself on Wednesday dismissed O’Malley’s response as “a childish lashing out” on WBAL radio.

So what did O’Malley do yesterday? Double down on stupid. (Again, thanks to Jackie for this one.) This is from his Facebook page:

A new report conducted by the Hilltop Institute at the University of Maryland, finds that implementation of the Affordable Care Act will benefit the state’s budget by more than $600 million through 2020, generate more than $3 billion in annual economic activity, and create more than 26,000 jobs. This is more great news for Maryland’s families.

Naturally I had to respond:

If the group being cited has as part of its stated mission “Developing, implementing, and evaluating new delivery and financing models for publicly funded health care systems, including preventive health, behavioral health, oral health, and long-term services and supports” do you honestly think they would have some other conclusion?

The Left loves to jump on research when its funded by a particular industry and seems to conform with their word view, so how is this different?

But the most humorous thing I find about the study is that they project there will STILL be uninsured Marylanders. I thought the idea was to insure everyone? (Never mind the rose-colored glasses on economic impact, unemployment, etc. the report assumes, nor should we mention the $300 million a year state employers will have to pony up.)

(snip)

And why should O’Malley care? The impact will mainly fall on his successor; meanwhile he’ll be warming a U.S. Senate seat in preparation for his sure to be ill-fated Presidential run.

By the way, a summary of the report projections can be found at the Hilltop Institute site. I sort of suspect they know which side of the slice their bread is buttered on.

And here’s the rub: Does the governor honestly think that taking all these millions out of the private sector and redistributing it to the mobs who will be expecting their “free health care” for every sniffle, toothache, or paper cut will make money for the state? It didn’t work in Tennessee or Hawaii, and the jury is still out on Massachusetts.

Out here in the real world, we know the score. And while Martin O’Malley is trying his best to become a leading contender for the 2016 Democratic nomination by pandering to the causes liberals hold dearest, such as green energy and gay marriage, he’s forgetting that he’s also building a record of budget-busting failure to be used against him by the GOP. Quite honestly, stupid statements and “childish lashing out” are unbecoming of any governor, let alone who who fancies himself a prime-time candidate for the Oval Office.

Interview: U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino

Before I share what turned out to be an entertaining conversation of about 23 1/2 minutes with you, allow me a few observations.

First of all, let me set the stage: I spoke with Dan Friday morning before he would make a campaign trip out to Frostburg to speak about energy issues in a part of Maryland which could use the economic shot in the arm. As it turns out, I caught him in the couple hours of free time Dan semi-jokingly told me he was allowed during the day. So what was he doing? Putting together a crib for his infant daughter. It’s something a “regular guy” does, and I just can’t see Ben Cardin doing that even though he tries to make it look like he belongs on a waterman’s boat or is at home reading to kids.

I would have been happy with ten or fifteen minutes, but as I noted we ran about 23. So the background noises you will probably hear in this interview come from several sources: him building the crib, me shifting in my chair as I was recording this from the speaker of my cel phone, and my phone beeping from the fool who called me in the middle (no one I wanted to talk to.) My original thought was to transcribe the call, so there’s a little bit of small talk at the start and I hit record a couple seconds in. But after thinking about it, I decided the call was fine as an audio file. I didn’t figure it would hurt to keep the conversation as it was, warts and all. If I don’t edit or attempt to transcribe the conversation then you can’t accuse me of leaving anything out, right?

I’ve often argued I have a voice for print, and the reason I don’t do podcasts or my own radio show may be evident. So it was a relief to let him do most of the talking since you’re not listening to the interview to learn anything about me. All I wanted to do was touch on a few subjects, which I managed to do for the most part.

The interview is here, and depending on your browser and media player it will probably open in a new window. I wanted to thank Dan for taking the time to do this on fairly short notice and not needing to go through his media person.

I can also tell you that you have a chance to meet Dan in person this Saturday morning since he is scheduled to stop by the Delmarva Chicken Festival, which is being held behind the Centre of Salisbury in the grassy field along Naylor Mill Road. I look forward to seeing him again, and you should too.

Update: After you listen to the interview you may find this from Jim Jamitis worthwhile reading, too.

What Bongino doesn’t do – and what he does

I thought this was worth some comment on, but decided it didn’t belong on my Examiner page at this time – I may refer back to it in the future.

Earlier today U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino had this as his Facebook status:

I do not wear suits because I want to look like a Senator, I wear them out of respect for the audience I am speaking to.

I do not wear jeans because I want to look like the “everyday man”, I wear them because I am one.

I do not speak about common sense economic policies because I dislike the opposing political party, I do it because I love our Country and want my daughters to enjoy a prosperous future.

I do not stand in front of Camden Yards, Metro stops and at intersections sign waving for media attention. I do it for voter’s attention. You deserve to know your options.

Finally, I am not running for Senate for the title, the power, or the privilege. I am running to shake up a power structure which has become insulated and insensitive to the needs of genuine, working class Americans just looking for a small corner of the world to call their own.

At the risk of pandering to an audience, a few things came to mind when I read that. One was that both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush rarely ventured into the Oval Office sans suit and tie, such was their respect for the office. Certainly Dan feels it’s appropriate to live by that rule when representing himself in certain situations, and that’s fine. Bongino certainly doesn’t present himself as the aloof type, even in suit and tie.

It’s certainly interesting when you compare this to Ben Cardin’s efforts to portray himself as a “friend,” grandfatherly with the kids and hard-working with the oystermen. He has to do that because it keeps people from realizing that, for the majority of Marylanders, Ben Cardin has been in public office longer than they have been alive because the state’s median age is 38 and he’s been in office 45 years. Yes, millions of Marylanders have never seen Ben Cardin with a “real” job, whether it’s working with oysters or not.

Meanwhile, Bongino has worked in law enforcement and never sought public office until his Senate run. While I don’t know this for a fact, I suspect that if I asked him he would probably turn up his nose at serving more than two terms in the U.S. Senate. Seems to me the idea of a citizen legislature was one where people would return to being citizens after a few years, not leave their offices feet-first in a box.

Nor do I dislike Democrats personally. Admittedly I don’t have a lot of Democratic friends, but they know where I stand politically and they deal with it. They’re still good people.

But they need to look in the mirror and ask themselves: if we have had policies in effect for most of the last half-century and they’re not succeeding, isn’t it possible we were wrong all along? No one’s really tried limiting government, although you would think when Republicans talk about cuts that we were going to no government at all. I have news for you: limited does not equal none.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Bongino is running that retail campaign, getting out and meeting voters in person, in part due to necessity. Ben Cardin has millions of special interest dollars in the bank and I suspect his campaign will consist of carpetbombing us 30 seconds at a time with the message that he would be doing all these wonderful things for Maryland if it weren’t for conservatives like his neophyte opponent who want to take your Social Security check and clean air and water away (or some such variation of that theme.) What else does Ben have to run on?

Sad thing is that Cardin may win without so much as a debate or tough questioning from the mainstream media in this state! Do you recall a Wargotz vs. Mikulski debate? Neither do I, and I doubt Ben Cardin has the guts to debate Bongino either. Come on, if Ben’s so smart one would think he’d mop up the stage with Dan, but we know it’s not going to happen because professional incumbent politicians never take that sort of risk unless they absolutely have to. And no one is going to make him do it.

If the power structure is going to be shaken, it’s going to be a determined and small minority taking on the Democratic and media machine in this state. Personally I don’t give a rat’s ass if Maryland Democrat Party Chair Yvette Lewis doesn’t like the idea of petitions because I’m sure she’s all in favor of the petition which put Scott Walker on the recall ballot in Wisconsin. Hypocrite. But that’s the way the Maryland Democrat Party works.

So let’s get out there and shock the world.

Senate hopeful Bongino calls incumbent Cardin Maryland’s ‘blind date’

Editor’s note 5/14/2022: I have brought this home from the dead Examiner.com pages.

A time-tested political approach for opponents of an entrenched incumbent politician is to question his record, and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino is doing just that.

In a statement to supporters, Bongino claimed incumbent Ben Cardin “has maintained political office for an astounding 45 years by taking Marylanders on an endless series of blind dates.” This was part of a bid to have a series of monthly debates between the two during the remaining six months before the November 6 elections. However, incumbent politicians up for re-election will rarely give opponents the time of day, let alone take the chance on committing a verbal faux pas on a statewide stage.

And Bongino is aware of this. “Given Ben Cardin’s history of being asleep at the wheel I would not be surprised if he ignores my debate request,” said the Republican contender,”but I am relentlessly pursuing real change to our government and will not be ignored.”

While the pre-prinary Washington Post endorsement of Cardin called him a “substantive, responsive, and doggedly effective public official,” the average Marylander would be hard-pressed to name one significant legislative accomplishment Ben has achieved over his six years in the Senate. Part of that comes from being in the shadow of Maryland’s other U.S. Senator, the popular Barbara Mikulski, but Cardin has also developed a reputation for being such a reliable liberal vote that it’s rarely questioned which side of an issue he’ll be on. As an example, there was no need for giving Ben a “Louisiana Purchase” or “Cornhusker Kickback” on Obamacare, as was the case with wavering Democratic Senators Mary Landrieu and Ben Nelson, respectively. Whether the vote was in the best interests of Marylanders or not, Democratic leadership knew they could put Cardin’s vote in their column.

And while Cardin managed to poll just under 75 percent in a primary victory over a host of underfunded opponents in last month’s primary, his original 2006 election to the Senate was by just 10 points over former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. Moreover, Ben barely won the 2006 primary over Kweisi Mfume, sliding through with a three-point plurality over the onetime NAACP head. Although they may vote for him out of party loyalty, minority voters haven’t necessarily warmed up to Cardin.

In an attempt to exploit this perceived weakness, Bongino believes education may be a key wedge issue for minority and working-class voters. Instead, he contends that Ben Cardin has given “staunch support of special interests over parents’ rights in the struggle for educational opportunity.” Supporting that argument is the fact that, before the ink on Ben’s 2012 filing papers had a chance to dry, he already had the endorsement of a leading teachers’ union in his pocket.

But unless he upsets conventional political wisdom and agrees to the series of debates proposed by Bongino, the incumbent Senator seems content to use his current vast financial advantage to pepper the airwaves with 30-second feelgood spots later this fall rather than defend a voting record which rarely strays from the most liberal of Democratic lines. To his campaign it appears an uninformed voter can be a Cardin voter.

Colombia scandal closer to home

The latest news sensation blown up by the need for content to serve the master of a 24/7/365 media, the Colombia Secret Service scandal has many of the ingredients of a juicy tale, with sex and celebrity among them.

But it’s also ensnared a collateral victim in all this, as recently nominated U.S. Senate candidate Dan Bongino is a former Secret Service agent who apparently knew some of those involved. Needless to say, those on the Left have been quick to tar him with the same brush and Bongino has responded:

With regard to the ongoing investigation into the activities of a group of Secret Service Agents in Colombia, I have chosen to defend the agency publicly & will continue to do so. I will not defend the abhorrent choices made by the individuals involved as they have tarnished the reputations of an elite group of men & women I am proud to call friends. I have been clear from the beginning both publicly & privately that I had close personal relationships with those involved but out of respect for their families, I adamantly refused to release their names. A left wing media outlet intentionally leaked the name of my brother without the surrounding facts. ALL of those involved, without exception, pursuant to a thorough investigation, must be held responsible for their choices. Integrity and leadership matter.

Already several of those involved have faced punishment or termination from the Secret Service, but if you look at this in a political sense this is a needless distraction in a race already made an uphill climb by Ben Cardin’s financial advantage – David Moon of Maryland Juice mocks Dan, writing that Bongino has “dustballs in (his campaign) wallet” while bragging about Ben Cardin’s millions in the bank. (Living in a high-tax Democratic state too many of the rest of us working Marylanders have dustballs in our wallets too, David.)

Now I’m not paranoid enough to see this as a conspiracy against a single Senatorial candidate in a race that’s really not on the national radar screen yet, but this sort of attention is going to be detrimental to Bongino until it clears its way off the front pages for the next scandal. This is true even though Bongino left the Secret Service nearly a year ago, when he began his campaign.

Instead, the campaign should be reset – even if some of us have to force the agenda in that direction – to speak about the real issues. Let’s look at a Facebook statement Bongino made Monday, for example:

It’s time to have a genuine conversation about what the administration refers to as “fairness”. What is “fair” about a limitless spending agenda which places untold burdens on my children? What is “fair” about a tax code written by insiders, paid for by insiders and benefiting insiders and their political acolytes? What is “fair” about telling parents just looking for a fair shot that education is the govt’s choice and not their’s? This is a conversation, we as Republicans, should embrace.

Ben Cardin supports all these things: the escalating spending, the tax code cronyism, the blind throwing of money at a dysfunctional public education system; above all, it’s all about preserving political power and he’s played that game at a variety of levels for 45 long years.

The early April primary makes the campaign a marathon – with just a small fraction of the voters casting their ballots most haven’t gotten into the political frame of mind yet and probably won’t do so until the national conventions later this summer. So the scandal comes at a good time insofar as Dan is concerned because it will be forgotten by this fall, but it also takes just that little bit away from the movement building we’ll need to oust an entrenched incumbent.

Where I went wrong (and right)

Okay, the results have come in and I got some sleep and a day at my outside job to consider them, so let’s go back to my prediction post and see how I did.

I was actually correct in the order of presentation on the top four Presidential candidates statewide, but Mitt Romney exceeded even the pollsters’ expectations when he won just under half the vote. I suppose that inevitability factor may have affected the results because it appears our turnout in 2012 will end up about 20 percent less than it was in 2008, when the race was effectively over by the time we voted. Because few people like to admit they’re backing a loser, I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of voters changed from Gingrich to Romney at the end while other Newt backers stayed home. It also proves Ron Paul has support a mile deep but an inch wide since both well underperformed what I thought they might. I actually missed Santorum by less than a point, although it surprised me that Rick only won two counties (Garrett and Somerset.) I would have thought Rick would carry 4 to 6 of the more rural counties, including Wicomico. But once Romney outperformed it was over.

And you may wonder why I had Fred Karger at 2 percent. I thought he would do better because, as a gay Republican candidate in a state which was bound to be a Romney state anyway, voting for him may serve as a message about the gay marriage referendum likely to appear in November. Instead, he got only less than 1/10 of my predicted total and finished dead last. I also managed to garble up the exact order of the also-rans, but with such a small sample who knew?

That same statewide trend seemed to affect my Wicomico result too because Romney outperformed and Gingrich/Paul suffered for it.

And while I didn’t predict it, I find it quite fascinating that 12 percent of the Democratic primary voters selected “none of the above” rather than Barack Obama. However, that statewide average varies wildly from under 3% in Prince George’s County, about 5% in Baltimore City, and just over 7% in Montgomery County to fully 1/3 of Democrats in Allegany County and a staggering 34.7% in Cecil County. In the last comparable election with a Democratic incumbent (1996) President Clinton only received 84% of the vote (onetime perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche got 4%) but no county came close to getting 1/3 or more of the ballots against the President.

I didn’t miss the “barnburner” aspect of the Senate race by much as it wasn’t called until nearly midnight. But Dan Bongino carried 34% of the vote and won by 6 points over Richard Douglas. (I called it for two points, but I underestimated the impact of the little eight.) I think Joseph Alexander gets the advantage of being first of the ballot, and that accounts for his second straight third-place finish. The rest? Well, the order wasn’t all that correct but they were mostly only off by a percent or two and I got last place right. And to prove it was a close race, both Bongino and Douglas carried 12 counties apiece.

What mystifies me the most isn’t that Rich Douglas carried Wicomico rather easily, but how much support the other eight received – they collectively picked up almost 100 more votes than Douglas did! I would love to know the mindset of the people who voted for most of these minor candidates. I can see a case for Robert Broadus based on the Protect Marriage Maryland group, but what did the others really do to promote their campaigns? At least I know Douglas had radio spots and reasonably good online coverage.

But I did peg Ben Cardin to within 4 points statewide.

On some of the Congressional races: despite the fact I screwed up the percentages, at least I correctly called the Sixth District winners as Roscoe Bartlett and John Delaney. Both did far better than I expected, and I think part of the reason was that both their key challengers’ campaigns imploded in the last week or two. A week ago we may have had something closer to the numbers I predicted. Think Rob Garagiola and David Brinkley may commiserate anytime soon?

The ‘relative ease’ I suspected for Nancy Jacobs was even easier than I thought. I guess Larry Smith didn’t have nearly the campaign as I believed because he came up short on my prediction about as much as Nancy Jacobs was over – I wasn’t all that far off on Rick Impallaria.

While there is a slim chance I may have the First District Democratic race correct, I was surprised that Eastern Shore voters didn’t get all parochial and support the one Eastern Shore candidate, John LaFerla, over two from across the Bay. He only won Worcester, Kent, and Queen Anne’s counties, and I would chalk most of that up to Wayne Gilchrest’s endorsement. Kim Letke was about 6 points better than I thought and LaFerla was six points worse because he way underperformed on the Eastern Shore. I suspect no small part of that underperformance by LaFerla was his extreme pro-choice stance, as getting the NARAL endorsement doesn’t play well among local Democrats. There is a 136 vote margin out of about 23,500 cast.

Out of the rest, the only one I got wrong was the Eighth District, and I think that was a case of better name recognition than I expected for Ken Timmerman and less of a vote split among the three candidates from Montgomery County.

As for the Democratic incumbents, I could have wrote “over 85%” and still been right, with the minor exception of Steny Hoyer getting 84.8%.

So this is how the races for November will line up. Sometime this evening I will update my sidebar to reflect this:

  • U.S. Senate: Dan Bongino (R) vs. Ben Cardin (D – incumbent)
  • District 1: Andy Harris (R – incumbent) vs. Wendy Rosen (D – pending absentees and possible recount)
  • District 2: Nancy Jacobs (R) vs. Dutch Ruppersberger (D – incumbent)
  • District 3: Eric Knowles (R) vs. John Sarbanes (D – incumbent)
  • District 4: Faith Loudon (R) vs. Donna Edwards (D – incumbent)
  • District 5: Tony O’Donnell (R) vs. Steny Hoyer (D – incumbent)
  • District 6: Roscoe Bartlett (R – incumbent) vs. John Delaney (D)
  • District 7: Frank Mirabile (R) vs. Elijah Cummings (D – incumbent)
  • District 8: Ken Timmerman (R) vs. Chris Van Hollen (D – incumbent)

So out of 19 contested races I predicted 15 correctly, and I stuck my neck out on percentages a few times as well. I missed Romney by 8 points statewide and 9 points here in Wicomico County. I think the “inevitable” mantle made the difference.

But with Dan Bongino I was only 2 points off statewide. Probably my worst guess, though, was being 19 points off with him in Wicomico County. It’s worth noting that the Douglas late-game media strategy seemed to pay off on the Eastern Shore since he carried six of the nine counties and would have carried the nine-county Shore if he hadn’t been blown out in Cecil County by 1,250 votes. Bongino carried five counties with over 40 percent of the vote (Cecil was one along with Anne Arundel, Frederick, Queen Anne’s, and Montgomery) while Douglas could only claim two such counties (Dorchester and Talbot.)

I saw this possibly ending up as a rerun of the 2010 race where Eric Wargotz had more money while Jim Rutledge had more grassroots (read: TEA Party) support. Obviously media reaches a LOT more people quickly than grassroots efforts do in a statewide race, and the money to buy media is a key element of a successful campaign. That’s where Eric Wargotz succeeded, because Jim Rutledge didn’t raise a lot of money and Eric had a sizable bank account to tap into.

But as it turned out the Douglas bankroll wasn’t all that large, and an abbreviated campaign with a spring primary didn’t give Rich quite enough time to build a support base of his own. Those three or four extra months Dan worked on his campaign (at a time, remember, when better-known prospective opponents like Wargotz and Delegate Pat McDonough were considering the race) turned Bongino from an also-ran into a nominee. By succeeding enough to nationalize the campaign Dan made himself into a formidable opponent to Ben Cardin. Had this been a September primary, though, the result may have been different.

Now we have just under seven months until the general election, a chance for the campaigns to take a quick breather and begin to plot the strategy for November victory. For Democrats, it will be a hope that Obama can fool people into believing he’s an effective President and having long enough coattails. On the other hand, Republicans need to point out the Obama record while spelling out their own solutions – that’s where we’ve been lacking in some respects. We need to give people a reason to vote FOR us rather than AGAINST the other SOB.

So start working on those platforms, ladies and gentlemen. If we are to win, we need to not be a pastel Democrat-lite but present bold colors to Maryland and the nation.

Primary crystal ball predictions

Just for the heck of it, I’m going to do my set of predictions on some key races locally and around the state. In the past we did this among ourselves at the Central Committee meetings but we didn’t discuss it last night. So tell me what you think, and if I turn out to be wrong – well, don’t laugh too much. Most of this is a (somewhat) educated guess.

I’m going to begin with the Presidential race, on a statewide level. There have already been several polls on this, so there’s a little bit of cheating involved; then again, the polls actually pretty much mirrored my gut instinct all along.

In Maryland, I see the race like this:

  1. Mitt Romney – 41%
  2. Rick Santorum – 28%
  3. Newt Gingrich – 16%
  4. Ron Paul – 11%
  5. Fred Karger – 2%
  6. Rick Perry – <1%
  7. Buddy Roemer – <1%
  8. Jon Huntsman – <1%

The polls seem to have Romney winning bigger (Rasmussen has it 45-28) but I think Mitt’s people will tend to figure he’s got it in the bag and turnout will be better in certain areas where Gingrich and Paul may run a little stronger.

How about Wicomico County? This is more of a crapshoot but I think the top 4 results will be a little different:

  1. Rick Santorum – 35%
  2. Mitt Romney – 33%
  3. Newt Gingrich – 18%
  4. Ron Paul – 13%

The voters here tend to be more conservative than the state at large.

The other statewide race is for U.S. Senate. Now I’m really going to go out on a limb here, because there aren’t any polls I’m aware of (aside from the sure fact campaigns have internal polling I’m not privy to) but my gut is telling me we may have a barnburner on our hands:

  1. Dan Bongino – 36%
  2. Richard Douglas – 34%
  3. Robert Broadus – 8%
  4. Corrogan Vaughn – 5%
  5. Joseph Alexander – 4%
  6. David Jones – 4%
  7. William Capps – 3%
  8. Rick Hoover – 3%
  9. John Kimble – 2%
  10. Brian Vaeth – 1%

In Wicomico County, I suspect the top three will be Bongino (42%), Douglas (36%), and Broadus (8%). None of the others will be over 3 percent. Incumbent Ben Cardin will be the opponent, with the over-under line for me being 70% of the statewide vote.

And how about the Sixth District race? It’s the most talked-about Congressional primary since the 2008 First District primary, with the added benefit of mud flying on both sides.

On the Republican side, I think Roscoe Bartlett will hold on to his seat with 33% of the vote, with David Brinkley gathering 29%, Joseph Krysztforski 14%, Robin Ficker 10%, and Kathy Afzali 7%. The other three will split the remaining 7%.

What saves Bartlett’s bacon is the fact that there are so many in the race that people may just throw up their hands and go with the name they know. If there were just four or five in the race I think Brinkley has a shot, although the last-minute release of 9-1-1 tapes featuring his ex-wife may knock a point or two away from Brinkley and provide Roscoe’s margin of victory. It’s the voters on the extreme western end of the district who are likely most swayed by that because they don’t really know David that well.

On the Democratic side, I’m sensing a bit of an upset. We figured that this seat was drawn for Rob Garagiola, but I suspect the charges laid against him by John Delaney have done enough damage that Delaney will squeak out a close win, something on the order of 31-30. Milad Pooran will likely run a respectable third with 21%, while Ron Little grabs 10% and Charles Bailey the last 8%.

The Second District GOP race is also interesting, but I think Nancy Jacobs will win it with relative ease, probably with 40% or so of the vote. Larry Smith comes in around 28%, Rick Impallaria with 19%, and the other two with single digits apiece.

Meanwhile, I think John LaFerla will be the First District Democratic nominee against Andy Harris and he’ll end up just short of a majority – 49% district-wide against Wendy Rosen’s 43%. Kim Letke will get the last 8%. What puts LaFerla over the top in the primary is the endorsement of Wayne Gilchrest. What keeps him from winning in November is being endorsed by NARAL and Planned Parenthood.

GOP winners in other districts will be Eric Knowles (3rd), Faith Loudon (4th), Tony O’Donnell (5th), Frank Mirabile (7th), and Dave Wallace (8th). Wallace gets the nod because the other three candidates will likely split the Montgomery County vote just enough for him to win over Ken Timmerman. Of course, there will not be any upsets among the incumbent Democrats – all of them will get over 75% in their respective primaries.

So what do you think? Am I all wet or do I have a good chance of being correct – and why? As opposed to yesterday, I’m going to leave this up all day until results come in.

One last appeal

On Thursday Anne Arundel County voters got to meet a half-dozen of the aspirants for the United States Senate in one of the last debates before the April 3 primary.

Video streaming by Ustream

The Maryland GOP was heavily promoting this event, so if you haven’t made up your mind yet, this is a chance to do so.

Senate and early voting updates

In the last week of the campaign Richard Douglas is making a charge down the stretch to grab the GOP nod for U.S. Senate. Witness this commercial, which is actually a pretty well-done 30-second spot:

But I can’t help noticing parallels between the 2010 and 2012 GOP Senate races. The two things which got eventual 2010 nominee Eric Wargotz through the primary and into a general election shellacking by Barbara Mikulski were the tacit backing of the state party establishment (as opposed to Jim Rutledge, who was perceived as more of a TEA Party candidate) and a lot of the candidate’s money. Fast forward to 2012 and you find that, on the first point, Richard Douglas has retained the services of Lawrence Scott’s political consulting firm. Lawrence Scott is the son of former MDGOP Chair and National Committeewoman candidate Audrey Scott, who has also endorsed Douglas.

I don’t doubt that Scott Strategies has had its share of successes over the years, but FEC records show his firm has received over $27,000 from Douglas. By comparison, the campaign has raised just over $26,000 in individual contributions.

So where is the money for what the Douglas campaign describes as a “six figure advertising buy focused on statewide radio, direct mail and voter turnout phone calls as the April 3 primary nears” coming from? Richard has secured over $100,000 in candidate loans, meaning his campaign is (as of the March 14 filing date) nearly $111,000 in debt with just over $20,000 cash on hand.

This is similar to 2010, where Eric Wargotz had over $500,000 cash on hand before his September primary but was $575,000 in debt based on campaign loans (he ended up raising just over $250,000 from outside contributors for the 2010 campaign but spent $1.24 million overall.)

By comparison, Dan Bongino raised over $187,000 in individual contributions by March 14, and had only loaned $3,000 to his campaign. A significant portion of his expenditures went to several paid members of his campaign rather than to an outside consultant. But maybe he needed a better audio feed for this spot, because it doesn’t compare well with his radio ads.

Of course, financially neither holds a candle to the nearly $1.9 million Ben Cardin had on hand. Ben obviously didn’t sleep through the class on how to shake down unions, PACs, and other special interests for campaign cash.

I also wanted to add a few words about early voting in Maryland. So far, according to the latest figures which now include five days of the six-day process, not even 2% of voters have come out. Even if the final day is as busy as Saturday was, fewer than one out of 40 registered voters will partake in the process. So I must ask: why are we bothering?

The only counties which may have significant early turnout (that being on the order of seven to eight percent) are Talbot and Kent counties; on the other hand some of the largest counties will likely lag under 2%. (Wicomico is at 2.37% with 1,063 voting at the Civic Center so far.)

As far as party affiliation, the GOP is ahead in terms of percentage with 2.17% turnout compared to 1.97% for Democrats. That’s a little ironic given the fact the GOP didn’t care for early voting when it was presented to the General Assembly, but  both parties have encouraged its use since.

As for me, I’m going to the polls Tuesday like we should.

New sponsor and new milestone

It’s an exciting day at monoblogue, made even moreso by the fact the presidential race came to Salisbury and I was there to cover the event. Yesterday I finalized a long-term sponsor to the site, so I encourage you to check out TEA Party Posters at rightposters.com. Welcome aboard John!

And late last night I found out that my site had finally broken through the 300,000 barrier in Alexa rank – when you figure this is somewhat of a regional website that’s pretty rarefied air. I’m just a little outside cracking the 50,000 rank for the first time insofar as U.S. rank goes as well. (Update: made it today!)

My rankings have been going down (like golf, lower is better) because people have been coming to my site of late. Readership has been surging with a number of well-read posts on Trayvon Martin, the Maryland presidential primary, and my U.S. Senate endorsement being just a few.

And look for more exciting stuff in the days to come!