Message to Ron Paul: prove fraud or drop out

Yes, you read the headline right. With the Santorum sweep on Tuesday night we have the following results from the states which have voted in primaries or caucuses:

  • Rick Santorum has won Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado.
  • Mitt Romney has taken New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada.
  • Newt Gingrich won in South Carolina.
  • Ron Paul has finished second twice (New Hampshire, Minnesota), third three times (Iowa, Nevada, Missouri) and fourth three times (South Carolina, Florida, Colorado). The third place in Missouri could have been a fourth if Newt Gingrich qualified for the ballot.

But Ron Paul supporters continue to believe the notion that there’s fraud in the two caucus states where delegates to the national convention were at stake (Iowa and Nevada.) In particular, this Examiner post by Mark Wachtler lays out what happened in one Clark County, Nevada precinct, and Wes Messamore at The Humble Libertarian piles on. Their logic is relatively simple: since Paul did well in that particular, somewhat large precinct, he must have done just as well across the rest of Clark County and since that area makes up most of the state’s electorate Ron Paul was swindled.

It even goes back to the Iowa caucus – and beyond. The fact that Iowa’s GOP state chair Matt Strawn resigned in the wake of the caucus imbroglio is considered proof positive that Ron Paul was hosed there somehow, too – after all, Paul was dissed at last summer’s Iowa Straw Poll by Strawn. That’s how Paul supporters sometimes operate.

More beyond the jump.

As the Silver State count came out, Paul won outright in only two of Nevada’s counties: Nye and Esmeralda. They combined for just over 1,ooo caucus votes – only 58 were cast in sparsely-populated Esmeralda County, which lies along the California border. In comparison, Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas, saw around 17,000 caucus votes, with Mitt Romney winning 58 percent.

Now let’s go back to the Examiner post. According to Wachtler, there were about 200 votes cast in the precinct in question. That would be about 1/5 of the overall vote from the two counties Paul won, but a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of Clark County. To use an analogous situation from 2008, this assertion by the Paul camp that there’s massive fraud and Paul’s results were underreported would be like presuming John McCain won the presidency in 2008 based on the fact he carried Wyoming with 65 percent of the vote.

Yet there is a flip side to the story, based on Tuesday’s results from the non-binding “beauty contests” in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota – all states which were carried by Rick Santorum. The Paul campaign is claiming they’ll walk away with the delegates:

As an example of our campaign’s delegate strength, take a look at what has occurred in Colorado:

In one precinct in Larimer County, the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich.  There were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13.

In a precinct in Delta County the vote was 22 for Santorum, 12 for Romney, 8 for Paul, 7 for Gingrich. There were 5 delegate slots, and ALL 5 went to Ron Paul.

In a Pueblo County precinct, the vote was 16 for Santorum, 11 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 2 for Paul. There were 2 delegate slots filled, and both were filled by Ron Paul supporters.

We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well.

I will allow the fact that I don’t know just how this arcane system works in Colorado, but it seems to me quite fishy that, where it’s documented that Paul finished second, third, and last respectively in these sample precincts, he walks away with all the delegates and Rick Santorum (who won all three instances) gets shut out. Perhaps it’s the same passionate support that leads Ron Paul to win in a significant number of straw polls and online surveys.

Yet no one from the Paul camp questions these caucus results because they favor their guy, at the expense of a candidate who was proven to get more votes. And boy, are people going to be pissed if they find out that the process worked in such a way that a guy who only got 12 percent of the overall state vote gets the lion’s share of convention delegates. If nothing else, it will likely insure the end of the caucus system once and for all.

Ron Paul’s supporters can’t have it both ways. If you’re going to run around claiming fraud every time your guy loses, well, you better start giving me more proof than the weak anecdotal evidence you have so far. Whenever we’ve had a true primary your guy is trending downward (23% in New Hampshire, 13% in South Carolina, 7% in Florida), and the poll your candidate cites as proof of national acceptance has the other two candidates within the margin of error of Paul’s second place finish. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken before the February 7 Santorum sweep, had Mitt Romney at 29% nationwide, followed by Ron Paul at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. A similar poll taken today could have Santorum in second based on the buzz created by his three wins.

But in questioning the process every time a negative result comes out, the Paul camp also gives ammunition to those who see voter fraud as a problem perpetrated by Republicans as much as Democrats, allowing the media to gloss over the fact that seemingly every close general election somehow turns in favor of the Democratic candidate. Two examples: the 2004 race for governor in Washington state and the Al Franken debacle in Minnesota.

So I challenge Ron Paul’s campaign: if you have evidence of fraud in these caucus states that you’re pinning your hopes on – just like Barack Obama did in 2008 – I better begin seeing it, because we all want a fair and clean process to select our nominee. But if you’re blowing smoke because your campaign isn’t ever going to get over the 20 percent hump, then in the absence of proof I believe you should withdraw.

It would be a sour note to end a long political career if allegations made turn out to be unfounded, and it would only solidify the position of the naysayers who believe Ron Paul is a crackpot only worthy of the tinfoil hat crowd. To me that’s sad because Paul has brought some valid discussion of the role of government to this campaign.

That conversation is entirely appropriate on the heels of the huge shift in the other direction we took beginning in 2008, but condoning the whining from supporters when things don’t go your way and the serious allegations they’re making isn’t becoming of a Presidential contender.

Update: More anecdotal “evidence” on tap if Ron Paul doesn’t win the Maine caucus.

16 thoughts on “Message to Ron Paul: prove fraud or drop out”

  1. CNN’s own entrance polls at the Iowa Caucuses showed Ron Paul winning, with Rick Santorum back by 6%, yet Santorum won the caucuses. This is the ONLY instance of this happening this election cycle. When network exit polls showed John Kerry winning the Presidency in 2004, people assumed the exit polls were wrong. However, voter fraud was later proved in Cuyoga County, Ohio. Without this fraud, John Kerry WOULD have been elected President in 2004. Iowa Governor Branstad had and the mainstream media openly discouraged Iowa caucus attendees from voting for Ron Paul. Further, for the FIRST time, Iowa Caucus results were taken to a SECRET location in Cincinnati, Ohio for tabulation. Nevada is the ONLY state so far in which Ron Paul’s total vote was unchanged from 2008; IN EVERY OTHER STATE, Dr. Paul’s total vote was up 200% to 300% from four years ago. In the ONLY TELEVISED caucus in Nevada (the Clark County “Saturday Night Caucus,” Ron Paul won by 3 to 1 over his nearest rival. Given Dr. Paul’s controversial positions on support for Israel, one would have expected him to do poorly in a caucus organized for Orthodox Jews and Seventh Day Adventists. AGAIN, the Nevada Caucus results were taken to a SECRET location for tabulation. Four years ago, the Nevada GOP leadership refused to finish counting the votes when it appeared Dr. Paul would finish at least a strong second. The GOP is largely financed by the bankers and the military-industrial complex, both of whom are powerful adversaries to Dr. Paul. I do agree with you on one point; if the GOP continues to change the rules every time Dr. Paul is in a good position to win, I hope Dr. Paul DOES “drop out” of the GOP race and runs on the Libertarian, Constitutional and Green Party tickets, assuring he will be on the ballot in all 50 states. If Dr. Paul does this, he will assure a political bloodbath for the GOP, which is what it surely deserves for its betrayal of Dr. Paul, the movement and the American people.

  2. You guys have the same result that a gnat might… just a mild annoyance if that.

    Ron Paul or None at ALL. Get used to that bud.

  3. I don’t see it.

    Most of your post takes Paul’s supporters to task for crying “Fraud” every time a poll doesn’t go their way. While it was tough to see three quarters of the pledged support for Paul fail to materialize on caucus day, this point is well taken.

    Four paragraphs from the end, however, you seem to pivot to discussing the Paul campaign itself, as though they encouraged or solicited this response; this despite the official campaign’s statements denying that they identified any fraud in the results.

    And yes, there damn well are GOP officials who would rather Paul and his supporters just went away, as shown by your link. I don’t happen to believe that they are conspiring to throw away votes, but the Party leadership is doing itself no favors by referring to supporters of a real, legitimate candidate as “hijackers” – can you imagine Romney supporters being so described?

  4. There is a big difference between Ron Paul’s CAMPAIGN and a small portion of his SUPPORTERS. Your attempt to blur that line and suggest that he is responsible and liable for their actions is ridiculous.

    Daily Paul is NOT a website run by anyone in his campaign, but rather a grassroots forum that allows open posts without restriction or censoring. It would be analogous to calling Santorum a hypocrite on abortion because some of his supporters are pro-choice.

    You may want to consider actually joining the profession of journalism instead of being an opinionated shill.

  5. So your demanding proof of Fraud or Ron Paul drop out.

    How about you give proof that the campaign is alleging fraud or proof that the campaign is condoning these allegations or end your journalistic career.

    Some people like to take comments by a few fanatics and associate it with all supporters and even the candidates themselves.

  6. I notice you have no quotes from the official campaign. It is true that some Ron Paul supporters allege fraud. Please show me where any representative of the Ron Paul CAMPAIGN has alleged fraud. I may be making the same mistake as I attribute to you, but I dare say you cannot.

  7. Wow, someone woke up and began to pay attention: 6 comments in 25 minutes!

    If you read the post carefully, I state that it is Ron Paul “supporters” who are making these claims; however, they can’t collectively drop out of the race. On the other hand, the Paul campaign itself IS telling me that they will get all these local delegates to state conventions despite the fact he was an also-ran. Isn’t that somewhat fraudulent and counter to the will of the voters as expressed?

    I pointed out last night on Facebook in a response to this post there that Paul increased his overall vote by 1.45% in Nevada despite the fact turnout declined by a factor of around 1/4 and Mitt Romney lost about 6,000 votes from 2008 to 2012. But it’s odd that he only won one more county than he did last time; perhaps it’s because he still only attracts a limited number of voters.

    As for my detractors, I think the burden of proof should be on you to show me where the candidate condemns these statements. Maybe he wants to rise above the fray but the actions of his supporters reflect on the candidate himself. Sure, there is always a “sour grapes” element among political also-rans – and I’ve seen that many a time over the 15 years or so I’ve been involved – but Ron Paul backers take this to an extreme. They also hand the opposition a fig leaf for their transgressions.

    Ron Paul has as much as admitted he probably won’t win. I understand he’s running more for a cause and that’s commendable. But moreso than most, his supporters are what turns people off from the good ideas his campaign has and basically I want the whole “fraud” allegation put to rest so we can get back to a debate on ideas.

  8. I’ll echo what others have said: Neither Ron Paul nor his campaign staff can be blamed for accusations that they aren’t making. When asked about his performance in Nevada, they said that the problem was turnout. I wish the conspiracy theorists would pay more attention to the campaign’s releases and statements to the media.

    I’m glad you feel that Paul’s views on the role of government have been beneficial to the debate. In my opinion, that’s exactly why he shouldn’t drop out. Who else will talk about things like eliminating the federal income tax, sound money, the Federal Reserve, and the merits of a noninterventionist foreign policy? Agree or disagree with his arguments, voters should be hearing and talking about these subjects. That’s why Paul continues to rake in donations — donors just want someone to present libertarian ideas on the national stage.

  9. Yeah… it’s fraud.

    I’ve been doing statistical analysis and anti-gaming systems for collaboration software for many, many years.

    Anyone that understands the standard margin of error can spot fraud… they admit to it, every time they conduct a poll and post their confidence intervals.

    If you say +/- 3% and you are off by more than that… more than one time in 20… you are doctoring polls. I can spot cheats algorithmically in any voting system. This republican primary system is rigged, rigged, rigged, rigged, rigged, and rigged.

    People prefer to think of the people around them as stupid, rather than admit that the only thing that keeps them safe from the big evils in the world is itself a corrupt body.

    Pick up a copy of Freakanomics, read it three times, and then apply the methodology he uses for Sumo wrestling cheaters and test score cheaters to the publicly available statistics on votes in America.

    For example, we had an initiative recently that failed with a 49%. If I just start walking and I ask EVERY adult I see if they voted… or I knock on doors (which I do), I can usually find out whether there is a 95% likelihood of fraud within 10 to 50 people.

    Math is fun.

    Fraud is everywhere. Anyone with courage and a calculator can find it.

  10. Hey dumb ass been reading any news about the maine caucus. It should be clear that election was stolen for that scumbag romney you probably support. You’re unamerican for supporting stealing peoples votes. Dr Paul is popular and our movement is growing while yours is dying. Any idiot can see what happened in Maine under Charles Webster, and drawing conclusions you can see what happened previously. Stop supporting candidates that accept fradulent election results. If we have to we will start our own party that knows how to properly count votes.

  11. Hey dumbass, if your movement is so popular why are you not getting more than 25% of the vote in non-caucus states? Thirteen percent in South Carolina and seven percent in Florida? Please.

    Please point out for me where I support stealing people’s votes. Right now you’re still in the “blind squirrel” stage with Maine, as in a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut. When you win a state or two with a primary, we’ll talk.

    Oh and by the way, if you read this website for any length of time you would know that a) I’m NOT a big Romney fan and b) there are a lot of areas where I think Ron Paul is right. Perhaps his biggest problems are some of the assholes who rabidly support him and claim foul in every state he loses.

    Go ahead and start your own party. You’ll get 10 percent of the vote and another four years of Obama. We tried that in 1992 and got eight years of Bill Clinton.

    Oh, and dumbass: your extra county voted and Paul still lost. Let me guess – Romney cheated in those counties too?

  12. Ron Paul or none at all. If Paul doesn’t get the nomination, I’m voting for Obama. Why delay the inevitable with any of these neocon candidates? We are on the brink of global economic collapse and WW3 and gays and abortion are still “issues?’

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