New polling raises question on O’Donnell’s viability

Late last month I posted about the endorsement given to upstart Republican Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware U.S. Senate race. But perhaps the bloom is fading from the rose, or establishment Republicans in the First State have planted enough seeds of doubt in the minds of GOP stalwarts to push them away from the conservative challenger.

The most recent Rasmussen Poll in Delaware has Rep. Mike Castle handily defeating likely Democratic nominee Chris Coons by a 49-37 margin, with 9 percent undecided. While the margin has shrunk somewhat from earlier Rasmussen surveys, the pollster feels confident enough to state that the Senate seat now “leans Republican.”

On the other hand, O’Donnell, who trailed Coons within the margin of error last time around, now finds herself 10 points behind in a 46-36 race. Whether this is a result of Tea Party involvement or not is purely speculative, but one passage in Rasmussen’s report on the race raises some big questions:

If Castle is the nominee, the GOP makes serious inroads into the Democratic vote. Castle gets 81% of the Republican vote, while Coons carries just 56% of Democrats. But if O’Donnell is in the race, her GOP support is 66%, and 75% of Democrats support Coons. Voters not affiliated with either major party break close to even no matter which Republican is in the race.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of all voters in Delaware regard Castle as a conservative, while 61% feel this way about O’Donnell.  Fifty-seven percent (57%) consider Coons a liberal.

My first question is what the 54% in Delaware are smoking to consider Castle a conservative, that is, unless Rasmussen is polling a group who thinks Ho Chi Minh was a moderate. (Given that Delaware has a Communist Party that just may be the case.) And where are the 34% of Republicans who wouldn’t support O’Donnell going to go if she gets the nod? Would they vote for the guy most Delaware voters think is a liberal just to spite the mostly downstate conservatives who are O’Donnell’s base of support?

Let’s just let this observer speak:

“She has debts she hasn’t paid from the last race. She sold her house that was in foreclosure so she could run for Senate. She has a long history of not paying bills. She sued a conservative think tank that dismissed her. She’s a candidate who runs for office that unfortunately lives off the proceeds. You just don’t have a candidate in Christine O’Donnell that is considered credible. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a candidate with such a paper trail.”

When you come to find out this statement comes from Tom Ross, Delaware’s State Republican Party chair, perhaps it speaks volumes about the Delaware GOP. Apparently they would rather have a closet Democrat or the real thing. Yes, this is a state which sent Joe Biden to the U.S. Senate way too many times but you have to figure the lesson would sink in sometime.

Perhaps Christine O’Donnell isn’t the best representative of a conservative candidate, but that statement from the party chair demonstrates the Delaware GOP is in severe need of a housecleaning. No wonder O’Donnell is tanking in the polls.

Author: Michael

It's me from my laptop computer.

2 thoughts on “New polling raises question on O’Donnell’s viability”

  1. Ahhh, where to start…

    Strange how the Rasmussen poll this time was only 500 likely voters – last time, they polled 1000. Margin of error 4.5% vs 3% on the last one.

    Probably more telling is how the very high number answered questions about their financial conditions (way above anything we see anywhere else in the Nation… Could it just possibly be that the poll was started by zipcode and stopped when they reached the 500? That would include the Greenville area, and the whole Pennsylvania bordering posh regions – all Castle strongholds.

    To put things a bit into perspective, look at the evaluation of other races around the country – whenever an incumbent (particularly with Castle’s two terms as governor and 9 terms in House) who pulled high 60% votes in the past – is having two back to back polls where he can’t even break the 50% mark, it should be telling…

    Then when you look at how he is having to spend more and more money to get those votes –

    * 2000 $10,075 for each percent
    * 2002 $11,066
    * 2004 $14,380
    * 2006 $22,272
    * 2008 $24,272
    * 2010 $38,723 for each percent so far to get the 47% favorable (with 4 months to go – As of June – and continues to spend like a – well – Washington Politician)

    I think you get a slightly better perspective…

    Then we come to the Delaware Republican Party….

    Strange how Tom Ross can’t seem to pass up an opportunity to bad-mouth Christine O’Donnell. Could it possibly be linked to Castle giving the State Party $30,000 when they were in a financial bind? You know, some of that money he got from Wall St., big banks, etc. that he voted to give billions of (taxpayer) bail-out money to… Guess Ross has to pay the piper!

    Like Boggs and Roth, Castle doesn’t seem to know when it is time to step aside. Time for some citizen politicians who have self-imposed term limits to step up to the plate.

  2. In Delaware (especially upstate) we have two choices: Democrat, or Democrat Light. The GOP does more for the cause of the Democratic Party than the Democrats do themselves; it’s my hope that, in the event of losses this year, the party leadership will be reorganized.

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