A Rasmussen poll taken late last month shows former Governor Bob Ehrlich within striking distance of Martin O’Malley. The likely Republican nominee now trails by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent.
Neither candidate is disliked by voters, though, as both candidates’ personal favorability ratings lie in the mid-50’s (O’Malley 54, Ehrlich 55.)
On job approval, though, Governor O’Malley is at 53 percent. While that’s an improvement over his September numbers in a Gonzales Research survey, looking deeper into the poll suggests his support is relatively tepid – strong disapproves lead strong approves 23-18. However, previous Gonzales data had saddled O’Malley with a sub-50 approval rating since March 2007 so the spin machine must finally be working in his favor.
It’s also worthy of note, though, that O’Malley’s numbers were at the lowest immediately after the tax increases of the 2007 Special Session he called took effect in 2008. At that point he was 10 to 11 points underwater on approval/disapproval. That’s also why I believe any tax increase comes immediately after he’s safely re-elected.
By comparison, President Obama has a 59% approval rating in Maryland with strong approves leading 38-32 over strong disapproves. Obviously Obama is quite the polarizing figure, even here.
In September, the Gonzales poll showed O’Malley leading 49-38 over Ehrlich, but O’Malley’s approval rating was only 48 percent. Oddly, that poll had both candidates’ personal approval numbers much lower (O’Malley 47, Ehrlich 42) so it appears time has burnished the perception of both gentlemen.
Obviously the poll which counts will be the one taken November 2nd, but pocketbook issues might have a way of changing the snapshots in time we see between now and then. Truly there is no other issue of importance in this race.
