Standings report: All-Star break

I’m sorry to say that I find the home run derby pretty lame. It’s much more fun for me to be a prognosticator for the traditional second half of the season.

I’m going to do a very fast standings report on one team I follow as they are also at their league’s midseason break. Matching my Tigers in first place are my Toledo Mud Hens as they try for a third straight International League Governors’ Cup title. They already have another title this season as “the Roost” was recently picked as being the best seats in the minor leagues by ESPN.

As they stand at the moment, it’s a rerun of 2005 as the Mud Hens have surged to the IL’s top record at the break (52-39). Despite losing yesterday, they maintained a 3 game lead over Indianapolis in their effort to win another IL West crown. And the remainder of July is relatively kind schedule-wise to the Hens as they play mostly IL South foes with the exception of the mediocre Pawtucket Red Sox, who are 5th in the IL East. Their next division game isn’t until August 4th against instate rival Columbus.

Now it’s time to move up a level. As I’ve done for the last two seasons, I’ll go through each American League team in order highlighting their strength of schedule.

1. Boston (53-34). Leads AL East by 10 games over Toronto and New York.

Strength of schedule: 297 games under .500, easiest in the American League.

Key stretch: If all goes well, they may clinch around September 15, when the hated Yankees come to Fenway Park. Other than that, they have a nice homestand coming out of the All-Star break against three teams who are all under .500 – Toronto, Kansas City, and Chicago.

Prediction: They will win the AL East but probably not until after the Yankee series.

2. DETROIT (52-34). Leads AL Central by 1 game over Cleveland (2 in loss column.)

Strength of schedule: 50 games under .500, 3rd easiest.

Key stretch: They salvaged a winning homestand (7-5) coming into the All-Star break by sweeping Boston, but they’ll pay for it now as they play 18 of their next 21 games on the road, featuring trips to Seattle/Minnesota and Chicago/Los Angeles/Oakland. Of that group, only Chicago is under the break-even mark.

Prediction: Hard to say. They’re fairly likely to make the playoffs, but whether it will be as AL Central champion or wild-card is up in the air. Last year’s bullpen strength isn’t there this season due to injuries and defections.

3. Los Angeles (53-35). Leads AL West by 2.5 games over Seattle.

Strength of schedule: 104 games over .500, 7th easiest.

Key stretch: Around Labor Day weekend they enjoy a long homestand featuring Texas and contenders Oakland and Cleveland.

Prediction: They’ll fight with Seattle the rest of the way, playing the Mariners 10 times (6 in Seattle.) I think they’ll hold off the Mariners and go into the playoffs as they are now, the #3 seed.

4. Cleveland (52-36). 2nd in AL Central, 7 games ahead of Minnesota and leading wild card by 1.5 games over Seattle.

Strength of schedule: 1 game under .500, 4th easiest.

Key stretch: From September 17-27, they play contenders Detroit (home), Oakland (home), and Seattle (away) before finishing at Kansas City. One game in Seattle is the last remaining makeup of the snowed-out series back in April.

Prediction: I think they’re strong enough to either win the AL Central or emerge as the wild card.

5. Seattle (49-36). 2nd in AL West, 6.5 games ahead of Oakland.

Strength of schedule: 124 games over .500, 8th easiest.

Key stretch: From late August into September they have an eastern trip to Cleveland (for one makeup game), Toronto, New York, and Detroit. Because of that makeup they don’t get a day off at either end, just one between New York and Detroit.

Prediction: The Mariners probably don’t have quite enough to overtake the Angels or Indians. They’ll be a team that sits home while some NL team with a worse record plays on.

6. Minnesota (45-43). 3rd in AL Central, 5 games up on Chicago.

Strength of schedule: 353 games over .500, 12th easiest.

Key stretch: Right off the All-Star break they host contenders Oakland, Detroit, and Los Angeles. They’ll likely need about a 7-2 or 8-1 homestand to jumpstart their season.

Prediction: The schedule is probably too tough to make a late charge like they did last season. While they did make up 11 games over two good teams from this time last season I can’t see both Detroit and Cleveland collapsing like Detroit and Chicago did in 2006.

7. Oakland (44-44). 3rd in AL West, 6 games ahead of Texas.

Strength of schedule: 307 games over .500, 11th easiest.

Key stretch: They play a batch of teams who are currently under breakeven toward the end of August. That has to be the point where they make a move because the Athletics have the most difficult September schedule in the league.

Prediction: I don’t think they have the horses this year, I see them winning maybe 85 games at most.

8. Toronto (43-44). 2nd in AL East in a virtual tie with New York.

Strength of schedule: 26 games over .500, 6th easiest.

Key stretch: 8 games to start the second half at division rivals Boston and New York. It’ll set the tone for the season and probably determine if Toronto is a buyer or seller at the trading deadline.

Prediction: Another disappointing campaign for Canada’s team. They’re not likely to finish out of third this season like they did in 2006.

9. New York (42-43). 3rd in AL East, 5 games clear of Baltimore.

Strength of schedule: 168 games under .500, 2nd easiest.

Key stretch: They do not play a team with a winning record the rest of July. That’s the good news; the bad news is their ancient pitching staff will have to deal with 19 full games plus the completion of a suspended game in Baltimore in 18 straight days after the All-Star break.

Prediction: The Boss ain’t gonna be happy this season. It’s not that the Yankees don’t have talent, but even if they win at a 2/3 pace the rest of the way, they finish 93-69. Cleveland, who’s fourth overall right now, is on track to win 96 games. So the Yankees need two good teams to falter and play well to make yet another playoff trip.

10. Chicago (39-47). 4th in AL Central, 2 games ahead of Kansas City.

Strength of schedule: 515 games over .500, toughest in baseball.

Key stretch: Are you kidding? They play in the AL Central. How about 32 games against Detroit (14), Cleveland (12), and Minnesota (6)?

Prediction: While the Sox have played better of late, they just might be sellers at the trading deadline. The killer schedule and hole they’ve dug for themselves show just how baseball is – the 2005 World Series clubs (White Sox and Houston) are a combined 77-97 this season. I’m seeing a team lucky to win 75 games this year but retrenching in 2008.

11. Baltimore (38-49). 4th in AL East, 4 games ahead of Tampa Bay.

Strength of schedule: 9 games over .500, 5th easiest.

Key stretch: Learning how to win against weak teams like Tampa Bay and Texas, who they face a combined 19 times.

Prediction: Happy crowds on four weekends the rest of the year as the Orioles play punching bag to the Red Sox and Yankees. Since on those weekends Boston and New York fans outnumber and outshout the hometown faithful, on balance the attendees will be pleased.

12. Kansas City (38-50). 5th in AL Central.

Strength of schedule: 224 games over .500, 10th easiest.

Key stretch: Except for a makeup game at Baltimore, their last 19 games are against AL Central foes. Just like last season in Detroit, the Royals can really play a spoilers’ role.

Prediction: No 100-loss season this year. It may be 63-99, but the Royals are showing some signs of becoming a respectable team.

13. Texas (38-50). 4th in AL West.

Strength of schedule: 214 games over .500, 9th easiest.

Key stretch: They can also play spoiler at seasons’ end, hosting Los Angeles and closing at Seattle.

Prediction: Look for a firesale come the end of the month.

14. Tampa Bay (34-53). 5th in AL East.

Strength of schedule: 366 games over .500, 13th easiest.

Key stretch: You’re a raw rookie, coming up to the bigs for the first time with a team rapidly closing in on 100 losses yet again. You look at the schedule and see your first big league roadtrip is a nice cross-country (and back) jaunt to Boston, Seattle, and Los Angeles. Welcome to the big leagues, kid.

Prediction: Like a clock that’s stopped, someday the conventional wisdom that Tampa Bay is loaded with young talent and is a team on the rise will pan out if they just keep repeating it. You would think a team that annually drafts toward the top would get a team full of good players – after all, they’ve now drafted that way 10 or 11 times! But until then, at least someone holds Baltimore up in the standings.

And for those of you who are National League fans, never fear. I also figured out the strength of schedule for each NL squad. In standings order:

  1. San Diego (49-38), 67 games under .500 collectively, 10th easiest.
  2. Milwaukee (49-39), 343 games under .500 total, 2nd easiest.
  3. New York (48-39), 241 games below .500, 4th easiest.
  4. Los Angeles (49-40), 158 games under .500 combined, 6th easiest.
  5. Atlanta (47-42), 288 games under .500 total, 3rd easiest.
  6. Arizona (47-43), 124 games over .500 collectively, toughest.
  7. Chicago (44-43), 395 games below .500, easiest.
  8. Colorado (44-44), 94 games above .500, 15th easiest (second toughest).
  9. Philadelphia (44-44), 58 games under .500 total, 11th easiest.
  10. Florida (42-47), 238 games below .500 combined, 5th easiest.
  11. St. Louis (40-45), 102 games under .500 aggregate, 7th easiest.
  12. Pittsburgh (40-48), 92 games under .500 total, 8th easiest.
  13. San Francisco (38-48), 82 games above .500 combined, 14th easiest.
  14. Houston (39-50), 10 games ahead of .500, 12th easiest.
  15. Cincinnati (36-52), 59 games over .500, 13th easiest.
  16. Washington (36-52), 69 games below .500, 9th easiest.

Surprisingly the Nats have a pretty tame schedule. So I’ll go out on a limb and do a quick breakdown.

16. Washington (36-52). 5th in NL East.

Key game: September 23 vs. Philadelphia. It’s scheduled to be their final game in RFK Stadium.

Prediction: They’ve actually played .500 ball since a dreadful start to the season (9-25 on May 9th.) So the Nats have a decent shot at winning 70 this year. It’s a start.

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This was fun to write. I actually did more research into it but decided that doing all the numbers was a little too dry so I played baseball expert tonight. We’ll see how I do come September.

The next standings report will be more conventional and occur at the end of the month.

Author: Michael

It's me from my laptop computer.