In a move which both piques interest and certainly cheers a certain segment of the Maryland Republican Party, the aforenentioned 2010 GOP Senate candidate is reportedly taking a “second look” at the race, according to the Baltimore Sun and other blog reports. As examples, David Moon at Maryland Juice has the port side view on this while Richard Cross, who briefly worked with the 2010 Wargotz effort, also weighs in at Cross Purposes.

Obviously, this could be much ado about nothing. For one thing, there are only four days before the filing deadline, and while Eric likely has a portion of his team in place and certainly hasn’t closed out his campaign accounts from 2010 he’s already facing a field with some established frontrunners and an uphill battle to secure the same proportion of the primary vote he received two years ago.

But it appears Eric’s logic regarding a primary battle is sound to a certain extent – obviously Ben Cardin has a serious opponent. Yet on the other hand, it appears the Maryland Democratic Party is going all in for Cardin despite their own bylaws prohibiting the practice. While our state is perceived as a safely Democratic state, anything is possible and Democrats have to protect the seats they have in the Senate, bylaws be damned.

And there’s always the “testing the waters” theory: perhaps this trial balloon has been launched to see what sort of buzz is generated by the possibility of a late Wargotz entry. Obviously it’s enough to make me write something during an NFL playoff game, and perhaps there is a chance that disillusioned minority Democrats here in Maryland – who will surely turn out to vote for Barack Obama – make that vote and then cast a ballot for the Republican to punish Ben Cardin for running against one of their own. But I only see that as adding 2 to 5 percent to the total of the eventual GOP nominee, and whoever runs needs to make up the 10-point deficit Michael Steele had in the 2006 race.

Certainly Eric is free to toss his hat into the ring, as I always think the more primary choices I have the better. But no one is going to hand him the GOP nomination and many of the factors which led him to initially skip the 2012 contest will remain in place regardless of how the Democratic race goes. My thinking at the moment is that C. Anthony Muse has a steep climb in order to beat Ben Cardin, even without the state and national Democrats putting their thumbs on the scale. Sometimes the first gut instinct is the best one.

Let’s begin with something the nanny state of Maryland has already addressed, banning hand-held cel phones or texting while driving. Now the National Transportation Safety Board wants to take this ban nationwide, never mind there are already laws in every state against inattentive driving.

I do quite a bit of driving as part of my job and I have to tell you that there are a lot of drivers out there who are on their cel phone – some may be hands-free and others are holding on to theirs. But aside from the fact they may have one or both hands on the steering wheel, I don’t think they’re any more distracted than someone who’s eating their lunch on the run, adjusting their heater or the radio, or yelling at the kids. Should we ban all those activities as well? Trust me, if I were an undercover cop I could rack up a lot of fines for the state by picking up folks who I saw talking on the phone, and could probably find a few scofflaws texting as well.

We don’t need a national texting ban – just a little more common sense.

Speaking of common sense, I think there’s another area where we’re lacking. The internet is great because of its freedom, but there are those who want to enact Chinese-style internet censorship because they’re worried about copyright infringement. This site pokes fun at the idea.

But this could be a serious problem for a blogger like me, because I have my occasional Friday Night Videos series and some of these artists cover songs by other artists. Obviously that’s not a significant portion of my content and I don’t think I’m going to cost any of these original artists any money. But in theory I could run afoul of the law, and that’s completely ridiculous. It’s amazing the excuses people can come up with to dampen the internet, because copyright infringement is only the beginning – next will be restricting what one can say. Constitution? We don’t need no stinkin’ Constitution.

Finally, speaking of the internet, this was an interesting e-mail.

I just received a spam message from a candidate you did an article on.  It is a nice Christmas message, and below is says I am on their “Supporters list. ”

I, however, am not on the list.  I actually don’t even know who this guy is.  Furthermore, I have never been to Maryland.  I have never voted in a US election.  I am actually Canadian.

And I hate spam like cats hate water.  And I find it reprehensible that someone running for senate would be spamming – which here is against the law.  I believe it is down there too.

Should I be invited though, I would be happy to make a trip down there and give you guys an honest opinion of the candidates you have running for senate.  Please forward this appropriately if need be.

Well I appreciate the readership from north of the border, but it brings up a great point about e-mail address harvesting.

I have no idea just how many e-mail lists I’m on, and there’s a reason I tried to avoid placing any of my work e-mails on e-mail lists – to avoid situations like this person’s.

Still, I’d be curious to know how the e-mail got on the list – probably a typo, judging by the fact it’s a fairly common Gmail address – and what this person really thinks about our Senate candidates.

The best irony, though, is that Eric Wargotz isn’t even running this year but he’s now known in a far-flung place like Regina, Saskatchewan. And now so am I.

Update: There was one more item I meant to throw in. People like to rag on Walmart and those who frequent it, but this writer – presumably one who won’t be part of the 99% since she’s working her way through college – brings up a great point about the need for welfare reform, to wit:

I spent hours upon hours toiling away at a register, scanning, bagging, and dealing with questionable clientele. These were all expected parts of the job, and I was okay with it. What I didn’t expect to be part of my job at Wal-Mart was to witness massive amounts of welfare fraud and abuse.

Read the rest. It’s going to be interesting to see what Maine does with their system since the Republicans were swept into power last year – of course, having said that, one has to consider that what passes for Republican in Maine are RINOs like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

But late on Tuesday the Maryland Republican Party Chair announced he was forming an exploratory committee for the Sixth District seat now held by Roscoe Bartlett, who is beginning to look more and more like a lame duck candidate – case in point, the strong suspicion that his (now former) chief of staff, Bud Otis, may be making a bid for the GOP nomination. Bear in mind there were already several candidates in the race for the Sixth District before all this intrigue began, making the statewide Senate race look cut-and-dried by comparison.

Mooney portrayed his timeline in a release from yesterday:

(On Wednesday) Maryland Republican Party Chairman Alex Mooney officially filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to form a campaign fundraising committee called “Mooney for Congress.”

“With the recent news about Congressman Roscoe Bartlett’s long time chief-of-staff preparing to run for Congress and the Democratic Party’s cynical and corrupt redistricting plan to oust Congressman Bartlett, I felt it was time for me also to start an exploratory committee for Congress. We cannot let Congressman Bartlett’s seat be taken by a tax-and-spend liberal like Rob Garagiola. Our economy is suffering and we need more jobs– not more government, more debt and more taxes,” said Mooney.

Donations can be made to “Mooney for Congress” and Mr. Mooney plans to officially file as a candidate for Congress in January, at which time he would step down from his position as Chairman of the Maryland Republican Party and take a leave of absence from his job running a non-profit organization which trains journalists.

So let’s work the timeline forward: the filing deadline for the primary election is January 11. Assuming Mooney files on that day, the reins of the party would be handed to First Vice-Chair Diana Waterman until a special convention is called. That convention would need to be held by March 12 in order to satisfy the sixty-day window in our bylaws.

(You may recall the last time we had a resignation former Chair Jim Pelura set his termination date for exactly 60 days prior to the next convention, thoughtfully saving the Party – and each of us Central Committee members – a needless expense.)

Unfortunately primary politics doesn’t work well with our announced Spring convention date, for that isn’t set until April 28, 2012. Of course, if the MDGOP decided to move its Spring Convention to March we could create some interesting opportunities for sponsorships and fundraising since a March date would put us just weeks before the primary. It would also possibly ensure some who are already on the ballot to be delegates and alternates to the national convention a place without having to sweat out election day because we select the remaining sets of ten delegates and alternates from Maryland at the state gathering.

Another facet of this announcement by Mooney is his legacy to the party. He admitted that fundraising hasn’t been as strong as he had envisioned, and the timing of his resignation would come just as the Maryland Republican apparatus is leaving their longtime Annapolis home for parts currently unknown. I don’t foresee the MDGOP living in the back of a van but this would leave Mooney’s successor in a bit of a pickle for a term which could conceivably last just eight months – a bylaw change from last spring (which Alex backed) changed the term of the MDGOP chair to a two-year term and Alex was elected last December. Obviously many may question if the party is stronger and more united now than it was in the afterglow of the 2010 election.

It’s way too soon to speculate who could run for Party chair if Mooney indeed resigns in January, but since none of the four other contenders who made it to the post last time around are running for other offices this time, nor are 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Eric Wargotz or Institute for Liberty head Andrew Langer – both of whom made overtures for the post but backed out late in the game – it’s quite likely one or more may wish to try again.

With the names I’m hearing through the grapevine for some of these positions – for example, State Senator David Brinkley also jumped into the Sixth District battle today and has a whole host of elected officials backing his bid, while former Senate Minority Leader Nancy Jacobs is contemplating a Second District run and Delegate Pat McDonough has waffled between running for Congress and the U.S. Senate - I must say the Republicans are making the possible 2014 scrum for the Democratic nomination for Governor (that rumored cage match between statewide officeholders Anthony Brown, Peter Franchot, Doug Gansler, and perhaps some other heavy hitters) look like a church picnic. Since only one can win and the others have to work together in some capacity, let’s make sure to train our guns on the right targets. Alex Mooney has the right idea in that respect as he lays into Rob “Gas Tax” Garagiola by name. (He forgot the “Gas Tax” part; but then again that’s my creation. I think it should be Rob’s new middle name, don’t you?)

And we thought the 2008 First District race was political gold. It has nothing on this year’s Sixth District happenings because they’ll affect the very direction the Maryland GOP takes over the course of the next electoral cycle.

One election I participated in was a straw poll held at the MDGOP Fall Convention over the weekend, with the results tabulated and announced today. (My analysis comes after the jump.)

The results weren’t all that surprising to me, given the makeup of our state Central Committees:

1. Mitt Romney – 26%
2. Newt Gingrich – 20%
3. Herman Cain – 20%
4. Ron Paul – 19%
5. Michele Bachmann – 5%
6. Rick Perry – 5%
7. Jon Huntsman – 4%
8. Gary Johnson – 1%

I don’t think anyone else was on that ballot, so they ignored some of the lesser lights like Rick Santorum or Buddy Roemer.

They also did a U.S. Senate poll:

1. Dan Bongino – 56%
2. Rich Douglas – 22%
3. Robert Broadus – 16%

The other 6 percent were split between various other candidates on the ballot, including 2 percent who pined for Eric Wargotz to change his mind. I’m going to guess there were probably 150 to 200 votes total, since it was only the Central Committee members who had ballots in their convention packages.

In looking at the poll and knowing pretty well the group which responded, it’s not too surprising that we are fairly close to national results. Mitt Romney got his usual 1/4 of the vote, which doesn’t seem to increase no matter how much the establishment wishes it would. Newt Gingrich is beginning to take over as “flavor of the month” since the character assassination of Herman Cain is having its desired effect. And that’s okay with the establishment as well because we’re two decades removed from Newt’s bomb-throwing days as a House backbencher. Meanwhile, Ron Paul always does pretty well in straw polls so being fourth isn’t a big shock.

Between the top four, we’ve covered 85 percent of the vote, which leaves Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman, and Johnson to split a few crumbs. I’ve never gotten the sense that Perry was all that popular here, even when he was polling well nationally, so five percent seems about right.

On the other hand, I think the race in the U.S. Senate is still too young to put a lot of stock into these results. Having said that, though, I’m frankly shocked Robert Broadus got 16 percent given that he has little in the way of money. Certainly Robert is a passionate and articulate defender of the Constitution, but the trick for him will be getting his message out. He was at the convention as part of the Protect Marriage Maryland booth set up so he had a good opportunity to interact with a number of attendees and he must have impressed a few.

In an election where I helped to serve as a primary voter of sorts, it wasn’t close. Local business owner John Hall was unanimously selected to be the new District 4 County Councilman, defeating a field of three other candidates whose names were forwarded by the Republican Central Committee to replace the late Bob Caldwell. Hall will now serve out the remainder of Caldwell’s term once he assumes office December 6.

According to one published report, the reason Hall was picked was his lengthy business experience. WMDT-TV reporter Alyana Gomez quoted County Council President Gail Bartkovich as saying, “The council members thought that he would be a tremendous benefit in this economy particularly, when we start going through the budget and looking at how the county taxpayers’ dollars are spent.”

But the only election open to the public was the one in the town of Delmar, where Carl Anderton was elected mayor overwhelmingly with nearly 75 percent of the vote going his way. Meanwhile, Michael Gibb and Mary Stephanie Ring picked up 56 percent of the vote between them to win the two Commission seats.

But there’s something he alluded to in his statement that I haven’t received official word on. Capps notes that Pat McDonough has already entered the Senate race, but as for now he’s still on the fence between running for the U.S. Senate and running for Congress. Earlier this summer he had announced he was considering a Senate run based on how redistricting went, but nothing is official yet. If I were a betting man, though, I think Capps is correct and McDonough will take his statewide shot.

Another name candidate who hadn’t finalized his plans is Eric Wargotz, the 2010 GOP nominee. Back in September he put out a fundraising appeal which was to help him make a decision, and I had it on pretty good authority that choice would be made around the first of November.

Well, consider Eric a couple days late but this literally just came as I was writing the post:

As many of you know, our team has been carefully considering a run for US Senate in 2012. After extensive research, I was humbled to learn that I remain popular among Republican primary voters and remain well positioned to win the Republican nomination for US Senate in Maryland once again.

Unfortunately, support for the incumbent Senator (and the President) remains strong in Maryland, despite the national political environment. In this political reality, we find ourselves in the position of being able to win the Republican nomination but falling short in the general election.

Therefore, regrettably, I have decided to forgo entering the 2012 US Senate race.

My family and I are grateful for your continued support and well-wishes over the past several years in this endeavor. I was honored to serve as your 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nominee and I will continue to work diligently to bring Maryland closer to a true, two-party state.

May God Bless you, the State of Maryland and our great Country.

So that’s the news, hot off the press. We’ll see now what move McDonough makes.

But I was cheered to see the lineup for the Turning the Tides Conference presented by the Maryland Conservative Action Network, as it included a number of luminaries as well as breakout discussions on a number of subjects near and dear to the hearts of conservatives in Maryland and everywhere else, for that matter. Not only that, the event drew over 200 activists from across Maryland and received coverage from both the old and new media outlets. They even had their very own counterprotest from a liberal former member of the House of Delegates.

So it sounds like we had a nice event. But now the question is ‘where do we go from here?’

It’s obvious we on the right have some measure of power in Maryland, but it’s limited to what our state Constitution grants us. Thus far in 2011 our biggest victories have simply been stopping the most egregious initiatives coming from Governor O’Malley and General Assembly liberals. Examples would include the same-sex marriage bill that was stopped by the House of Delegates, the septic ban that went nowhere thanks to a public outcry from rural legislators, and the Maryland DREAM Act was thwarted thanks to over 130,000 Marylanders who signed the petition to send the bill to referendum. That’s left bill sponsors and allies only a tenuous court case that hinges on the legality of gathering prefilled petitions online. Assuming the court correctly holds up the process, this tactic could be used more often but there is a risk of overreach. Prior to this year’s petition drive it had been twenty years since a repeal even made the ballot, with an actual overturn not having occurred since the early 1970s.

For the foreseeable future, job one will be to attempt to hold serve with our Congressional delegation, whether it’s keeping Roscoe Bartlett’s seat in Republican hands or swiping a different seat from the Democrats to keep some company for Andy Harris in Maryland’s GOP delegation. And don’t think for a minute the smear campaign won’t be placed on Harris either, whether Frank Kratovil tries for round three or someone else gives it a shot. A name I’ve heard quite often is Jim Mathias – we know he knows how to vote left but run right.

The second task would be more herculean, but perhaps an upset of Ben Cardin is doable as part of a red tide that flips the U.S. Senate. And while Barack Obama is an even more prohibitive favorite to win our state, it would be great to see him have to campaign and spend part of his war chest here.

In all three cases, we need to get good conservative candidates for office, and it was noteworthy that five of the announced U.S. Senate candidates (Dan Bongino, Robert Broadus, William Capps, Rick Hoover, and Corrogan Vaughn) took time to address the gathering, while a possible sixth (Pat McDonough) made separate remarks. It might make you wonder what was up with Rich Douglas and Eric Wargotz. I was a bit surprised, though, that Andy Harris didn’t show up. Meanwhile, Richard Falknor at Blue Ridge Forum lamented the lack of participation from Maryland elected officials, noting that only a few showed up.

Those who attended serve a very important purpose for the Maryland Republican Party, although the party may not know it yet. These 200 people could well be next crop of 2014 candidates, campaign staff, and activists who try and improve the lot of Republicans already in the General Assembly – while we have matched our modern-day high water mark of 43 in the House, we lost two seats in the Senate and now have just 12. The goal for 2014 should be to get at least 19 Senators and 57 Delegates – enough, with a unified front, to stop liberal Democrats from enacting “emergency” legislation.

But it all begins with organization and communication. It’s noteworthy that the ‘Occupy Annapolis’ protest, with perhaps fifteen activists, got better coverage than the so-called hatefest occurring just down the road. We don’t mind flying under the radar, though. It’s more fun to shock the liberals when we win.

Earlier today, the House of Delegates passed Governor O’Malley’s gerrymandered Congressional District Plan.

After only a short debate, the House voted to pass it 91-46. It needed 85 votes for passage. We were 7 votes away from stalling the Governor’s plan. 7 votes. And last night, we were only 3 votes away from stopping it in the Senate. (Emphasis in original.)

Well, you already know how I feel about the situation, but I have two other observations to add before I call it a night.

First of all, there probably is or will shortly be a party at State Senator Rob Garagiola’s house because the governor did his level best to put him in Congress – never mind he has nothing at all in common with the residents of the “traditional” Sixth District.

Second, my hunch is pretty strong that we have one more Republican Senate entrant, and his name will not be Eric Wargotz. I think Pat McDonough sees the writing on the Congressional wall and will go for a statewide race. Of course, there is one caveat – he would have to do a lot of campaigning during the regular General Assembly session. But we know he’s running for something and it’s more likely now that a statewide race will be his preference.

But it’s those seven damn votes in the House of Delegates and three in the Senate which may haunt us for the next ten years. Even more so is the thought we were thisclose to keeping two Senate seats, and if we were only one vote short perhaps one other Democrat besides Senator Muse would have turned. (Knowing that, we also know that Jim Mathias voted for the plan. I also looked up the committee vote, and sure enough Delegate Norm “Five Dollar” Conway voted it out of committee. Why am I not shocked?)

So we fight on. In 2014 it’s time to remember this because they can’t get rid of all the conservatives. If we turn out 100 percent we still win.

As I said in June when I did the last Senate one, I obviously know the polls are manipulated. But in making the assumption that those who would manipulate a poll exist in the same general proportion as supporters in the population at large, I can at least gather a trend. At least in this sort of instance it’s doubtful anyone would lie to a pollster.

These results, though, show a trend which may only be occurring within Republican circles until we know for sure if other key contenders are getting into the party. Here’s how the poll went:

1. Daniel Bongino – 3,425 votes (75.66%)
2. Eric Wargotz – 1,068 votes (23.59%)
3. Robert Broadus – 23 votes (0.51%)
4. William Capps – 5 votes (0.11%)
5. Rich Douglas – 2 votes (0.04%)
6. Rick Hoover – 2 votes (0.04%)
7. Pat McDonough – 1 vote (0.02%)
8. Corrogan Vaughn – 1 vote (0.02%)

Having said that a trend may exist, I need to caution those reading into the results that there’s little chance Dan Bongino will get 76% of the vote – I don’t care if the Constitutional Conservatives Fund of Senator Mike Lee has endorsed Dan or not, he’s not getting 75 percent of the GOP vote. In 2006 Michael Steele didn’t even get 90 percent and he was the sitting lieutenant governor, had plenty of name recognition, and basically controlled the whole Maryland GOP apparatus. I can see something in the 40′s for Bongino if all goes right but a lot depends on who else gets into the race and we won’t have a couple possible entrants with statewide name recognition make a formal announcement on their status until later this month.

But I have to admire how Dan is laying the groundwork for his campaign, including people passionate enough to drive internet poll numbers over 75 percent.

Let’s compare this to June numbers, for example. The number of votes cast was nearly the same (4,716 in June vs. 4,527 now) but the results were somewhat different:

1. Eric Wargotz – 44.87%
2. Daniel Bongino – 36.28%
3. William Capps – 17.62%
4. Corrogan Vaughn – 0.81%
5. Robert Broadus – 0.23%
6. Rick Hoover – 0.19%

Since I didn’t figure Capps ever really had 18 percent, the idea of a two-man race at the time had merit. But if Eric decides not to run – and remember, he had not made a final decision as of a couple weeks ago – that only leaves Pat McDonough as a possible major opponent. (I wouldn’t completely discount Rich Douglas either, given his background.)

This election is a little bit different than the last cycle, where the primary was late – so late, in fact, that federal law precludes us from having a September primary again. (Too bad, because I liked that compressed season.) Now there’s less than six months remaining until election day and truly we won’t be really paying attention until after the holidays anyway. It’s possible we could have a post-holiday bid, sort of like Bob Ehrlich’s coyness about his 2010 try for governor, but like Ehrlich it would have to be someone with some name recognition already because the filing deadline is January 11.

In any case it won’t be as easy as voting in a monoblogue poll.

My usual custom is to discuss the Wicomico County Republican Club meetings but not Central Committee meetings, mainly because we talk shop there and I like to keep the opposition guessing. Judging by recent election results around these parts, that strategy works pretty well.

But we had a special guest tonight as newly committed U.S. Senate candidate Rich Douglas came a-callin’. So I’ll discuss a little bit about what he said.

Rich introduced himself by telling us it was a “privilege” to see us and that running for Senate “is no sacrifice at all.” He also opined that the “Senate is on the wrong track,” and he spoke like a man who has experience with that body because he does, having spent three years working for former Senator Jesse Helms. There he learned that “principle…is a rare commodity.”

The Navy veteran talked about four things which needed to be brought to the table: duty, purpose, leadership, and vision. On leadership particularly, he chided the current Senate for forming a committee to deal with the debt ceiling – then going on vacation. For this and other reasons, Rich told us “we need to change the cast.”

He also said that Ben Cardin was “vulnerable.” But that wasn’t his words; this was the assessment of political strategist Dick Morris, who called Maryland one of five Democratic states in play. Douglas even mentioned the possibility of a strong primary challenge to Ben Cardin from the left.

But Rich’s larger strength (by far) lay in foreign affairs. Having spent time professionally in several of the world’s hotspots like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Columbia tracking the drug trade, Douglas knew what he was talking about. Rich believed that much more could be learned about foreign affairs from a member of the Maryland National Guard who’s been deployed in places like Iraq or Afghanistan than any graduate of a foreign affairs program in any prestigious school.

To show his foreign affairs chops, Douglas spent quite a bit of time talking about the Law of the Sea Treaty, which he was quite familiar with thanks to his role in Senator Helms’ office as a Chief Counsel.

We asked him a number of questions. Regarding the financing of his campaign, he knew Ben Cardin was sitting on $2 million; his “job is to make (Cardin) spend every penny.”

But he showed an unconventional streak as well. We shouldn’t blame China for our economic woes, Rich said, for “hammering China has provided an excuse (for us not to improve our competitive position)…that’s a copout.” Free trade is good for the country, he added, if agreements aren’t “suicide pacts.”

Another area where he ran afoul of orthodoxy was his opposition to a balanced budget amendment. But Rich explained that he didn’t want a court setting the budget, since that’s most likely the result of a BBA.

Similarly, he didn’t completely dismiss the idea of maintaining the EPA, Department of Education, and so forth if they were populated with better people. He was also open to defunding them, though. And energy conservation items which “made sense” were similarly okay with him.

Perhaps you may think Rich is not a TEA Party supporter. But he asserted that he had been reaching out to the TEA Party and said he’d been in a precursor organization to them, called Jesse Helms’s Senate staff.

Yet it seems like Rich understands the role of the Senate, in which part is dealing with the House and the executive branch. He saw the presidency envisioned by the Founding Fathers as having a “lesser role” than Congress, although the opposite is more true today.

Senators today, Douglas said, seem to spend more time rationalizing and justifying their votes after the fact than thinking about them beforehand. “They hate to vote,” said Rich repeatedly, pointing out the frequent use of unanimous consent.

“I can get things done, starting with the first day,” concluded Rich.

In all, we spent a little under an hour speaking with him. While he’s a little late to the party in terms of getting into the race (since a number of hopefuls are already in), the race really doesn’t have a clear favorite because 2010 nominee Eric Wargotz is also considering his options and Delegate Pat McDonough, who arguably has the lead in name recognition among GOP activists, is still up in the air regarding whether he’ll run for the U.S. House or Senate because he hasn’t seen how the districts are drawn. (More on that tomorrow.) Daniel Bongino has likely attracted the most notice thus far, though.

And at a time when the political outsider is in vogue, Douglas is sort of a contrarian in that respect – even though he’s never held elective office – because he’s worked for a long time in Washington. There’s also the idea that foreign affairs may be his strong suit in an election where domestic issues likely take precedence.

Obviously I can sit here all night and work out reasons he can’t win, but there’s no real reason he can’t overcome the odds. We just have to look at the rubber-stamp record of the incumbent, who couldn’t be bothered for leadership as the nation faced issues both domestically and abroad, to see what poor representation looks like.

It’s time for a change in Maryland, and perhaps Rich Douglas is the guy to get it done.

Since I’ve had the opportunity to speak with him in person, I would suggest that those of you who are political activists consider attending David Craig’s campaign school. It will make a stop here on the Lower Eastern Shore at the Comfort Inn in Cambridge this Saturday (October 1st) from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. It’s absolutely free and includes lunch too. You can sign up for the event here.

You know, I’d be curious to know if any liberals show up because it’s a freebie. But if it’s conducted like the “Bloggers and Burgers” confab you should leave the Craig campaign school neither hungry nor uninformed.

Speaking of liberals and freebies, there’s 116 people in Salisbury who really must suffer from terminal ignorance. I got this in my e-mail the other day, simply because September 30 is coming:

Here’s something you don’t have in common with 116 other supporters of this movement who tell us they live in Salisbury, MD.

That many of your neighbors have decided to own a piece of this campaign by making a donation of whatever they could afford. For some, that meant just $5. For others, it meant $100 or more. But each had their own personal reason for giving.

Our records show that you aren’t one of the 116 people where you’re from who have stepped up for 2012. Now’s your chance to change that.

Since the e-mail came from Jim Messina of the Obama 2012 campaign, don’t hold your breath waiting for my gift. I might give a little to Herman Cain, though.

It makes me curious, though – how many of my readers have donated to a Presidential campaign? I haven’t done so yet this cycle, but I did donate to Rep. Duncan Hunter’s ill-fated bid last time. He was my first.

Still, Obama may need the money since he’s losing one of his core constituencies. Matt Brooks of the Republican Jewish Coalition alerted me to this poll and let me know that, well, Obama’s numbers among that group are dropping like a stone. Over the last year, the President has lost 6 points in his overall approval rating among Jewish voters, while his marks on the handling of Israel dropped from an already-tepid 49% approval to just 40 percent.

Now I’ll grant that Jewish voters make up a small fraction of the overall electorate but they are concentrated mainly in states Obama won last time around so the loss is magnified. Added Brooks, ”These numbers show why Democrats are scrambling to shore up their support in the Jewish community,” and it’s particularly true after the NY-9 loss.

Another curious case is that of Eric Wargotz. I had just naturally assumed since his website was updated to reflect the 2012 election that he would jump into the U.S. Senate race again as the odds-on favorite for the nomination. But maybe there’s second thoughts?

I believe we can build on the momentum you helped me gain in 2010, and give Senator Cardin his pink slip. There is no question that Senator Cardin is more vulnerable than Senator Mikulski. Still, the question only you can help me answer “Is Senator Cardin vulnerable enough for Dr. Eric Wargotz to beat him?”

My core campaign team and I have been carefully evaluating whether to formally enter the 2012 election cycle. As I continue to travel around the great State of Maryland and to reach out across this great Nation trying to gauge potential support for another run, I am encouraged! We are not there yet.

There’s no doubt he would need money, since as it turns out the bulk of his campaign last time was self-funded and he still owes himself over $600,000. But there’s a question hanging over his head regarding that loan, and I think that will weigh very heavily on his decision – I know I wouldn’t want a $400,000 bath again.

If nothing else, though, we certainly can’t accuse Eric Wargotz from profiting personally as an elected official. And I’ll bet Ben Cardin isn’t loaning himself anything to run for re-election.

But it also shows that there’s more than just a sacrifice in family and personal time in running for office. Like him or not, you have to admire Eric for putting his money where his mouth is. More importantly, though, you have to wonder how many candidates are willing to go deeply into debt in this state to go against the machine. (E.J. Pipkin still owes himself $481,000 from his 2004 U.S. Senate campaign.)

Meanwhile, on a national level Michele Bachmann’s campaign said, in essence, it’s win in Iowa or go home.

No doubt that’s a stunning admission from a Presidential campaign, which tends to guard their strategy like a state secret.

But since she won the Iowa Straw Poll back in August, Michele Bachmann’s campaign has gone into free fall. (And having 0nly 300 views suggests this video isn’t drawing a lot of scrutiny either.) It looks like she’d going to limp into the Iowa caucuses come January and go all-in – anything less than perhaps second place and she’s toast.

Let me swerve back to local politics for a moment, and congratulate a couple people I know for advancing in the Delmar primary election. It was good to see that seven people ran for two seats on the town Commission and three entered the ring for Mayor – many small communities end up having to appoint someone to these posts because no one stands for election.

But current Commission member Carl Anderton received over 50% of the vote in winning the mayoral primary, besting second-place finisher (and Deputy Mayor) C. Luther Hitchens by over 20 points. Nicole McGuire came in third.

“Bunky” Luffman was a fourth-place finisher in the Commission contest, but finished just 12 votes behind Michael Gibb and curremt Commission member James Henderson, who tied for first. Mary Stephanie Ring finished third and made the final cut as well, while Pamela Schell, Cory Shaffer, and Thomas McGuire (mayoral hopeful Nicole’s husband) rounded out the results.

And finally, something that’s not necessarily political but could be life-threatening. While I don’t have a severe case, I am an asthmatic so once in awhile I do need an inhaler. This from Americans for Limited Government:

This is a telling decision by the FDA to ban the use of (epinephrine) asthma inhalers, as it places a higher priority on spurious and questionable effects on the atmosphere than on protecting human life itself.  Why is the Food and Drug Administration concerned with promoting the radical environmentalist agenda?

Now 25 million asthma sufferers in the U.S. will have to pay more for non-epinephrine inhalers, all to supposedly save the atmosphere.  That is because the alternative inhalers are only available via prescription.  So, in addition to paying more for the inhaler, the cost of the doctor’s visit and insurance costs must also be taken into account.

Once government agencies begin placing higher primacy on the near-religious ‘green agenda’ than on saving lives, it ceases all its legitimate functions.

One report stated the price would more than double, which will necessarily drive up health care costs. Is this because epinephrine presents a health risk?

Nope. It’s because these inhalers violate the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, says the FDA.

So for the dubious benefits of supposedly maintaining the ozone layer – like ten million inhalers are really going to make a difference compared to a couple thousand Chinese coal-fired power plants – asthma sufferers will need to get a prescription to continue their treatment program.

Shouldn’t we rethink this United Nations thing?

As you may know, I have been testing the waters for a possible campaign against Dutch Ruppersberger for a seat in the 2nd Congressional District.  The Second District is a difficult challenge and an uphill fight for a Republican.  However, polling results and reaction from the voters during the last 6 months, including a powerful show of support in the annual popular July 4th Dundalk parade indicate my chances are good.  Radio and television exposure over many years and support for issues such as opposition to illegal immigration have provided me with high name recognition and voter approval.

Despite these advantages, that district still remains a challenge.  Of course, the re-districting and the new district will not be revealed until October.  At that time, if the 2nd Congressional District transforms from ‘uphill to impossible,’ my personal decision will become clear.  It will not make any sense to ask family, friends, and supporters to engage in a campaign that cannot be won.  That will be a choice forced upon me by political powers over which I have no influence or control.

My decision to consider a run for Congress is based on two simple conclusions:  1) Washington is a mess.   2) I believe I can help make a difference.  My top priority is to serve in Washington as a representative of the people.  After much thought and consultations with others, I have decided that if the 2nd Congressional District is gerrymandered rendering it impossible to win, I will take a serious look at seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland.

There is very little difference between Dutch Ruppersberger and Ben Cardin.  They are liberal political twins and Obama clones.  My vision for America is completely different than their tax and spend big government agenda.

I recognize that my critics will falsely charge that this plan may be indecisive.  But, as I clearly stated before, my desire is to serve the people in Washington to help clean up the mess and make a difference.  It does not matter whether that service is in the Senate or the House of Representatives.  These are unsettling times where the pathway is not always clear.  Unfortunately, the decisions that we make are overly controlled by outside forces.  During the weeks and months ahead, I will continue to conduct my vigorous exploratory campaign.  It is my desire to inform my supporters and colleagues about what may occur in the future.  It is still early in the campaign season and I would ask everyone to be patient and wait until it is clear regarding everyone’s intentions.  Thank you for your consideration and understanding.

Fortunately for Pat, he can also maintain his radio show as long as he’s not a declared candidate, and that message resonates well beyond the confines of the Second Congressional District. It means he can wage at least a somewhat effective statewide campaign while the redistricting process is at work. (Not to mention he’s running ‘from cover’ in either case since he wouldn’t have to stand for election in his Delegate seat until 2014.)

Perhaps the better question, though, is why not make a decision now? Waiting on the results of redistricting does convey that indecisiveness Pat’s critics will feast on. But we can deduce from the message that Pat is running for some federal office. We also know he has a name recognition advantage over most other members of the House of Delegates thanks to both his radio show and work on certain key issues, and can indeed believe that there may be radical changes in the makeup of every one of Maryland’s Congressional districts because the Democrats are running the show and don’t really care about anything but maintaining political power.

So in reading this missive it appears McDonough’s preference would be to run for the Second District seat and he’s using a Senate bid as a fallback option. That may indeed be the case, but, since I like to think an election or two ahead, there’s a scenario which argues instead that he’s going statewide.

Obviously if Pat runs for and wins a U.S. Senate seat, he’s in a good position for the next six years and the country would gain a conservative voice from one of the most unlikely places. But if he takes the shot for Cardin’s Senate seat and loses, well, we all lose. But McDonough still would have built a statewide campaign organization and it could prove useful in 2014 since that election presents the opportunity of an open Governor’s seat. Remember, Pat flirted with the idea in 2010 but chose not to challenge Bob Ehrlich.

(Of course, winning the Governor’s seat after serving in Congress from the Second District worked for Bob, but that was nearly a decade ago – way past a political lifetime in this day and age.)

So McDonough remains a ‘theoretical’ candidate for the U.S. Senate; in reality just three GOP candidates have filed with the FEC (Daniel Bongino, William Capps, and Corrogan Vaughn) while Capps and Rick Hoover are on the ballot at this early stage. It is presumed from other sources that Robert Broadus and Eric Wargotz are in the race as well, although we await a formal announcement from 2010 GOP nominee Wargotz.

In the end we should have between 7 and 10 enter the U.S. Senate race on the Republican side, if past history is a guide. If McDonough does decide to jump in this fall then we’ve reached the lucky seven mark with just a few weeks to go before the filing deadline. Everyone has until January 11 to make up their minds.

It seems to me that Delegate Pat McDonough from Baltimore County has a history of exploring various races and then getting out. In 2010 he thought about running for governor on the Republican side and earlier this year was considering a challenge to Second District Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger. He’s not quite up to the blinding pace of changing races set by Carmen Amedori, but he’s getting close. And the questions become: how well is he known outside his Baltimore base? Would his issue stance resonate with Republican voters in a statewide race?

In Pat’s favor, he does have the advantage of an occasional bully pulpit when he hosts his weekend radio show or fills in for Baltimore radio host Tom Marr, but we see how well radio hosting worked for Bob Ehrlich. Certainly his conservative viewpoint on immigration and similar topics would play well with a following that helped place the Maryland DREAM Act on the ballot for the November, 2012 election, though.

And out of the 141 Delegates in the General Assembly last term, Pat ranked 11th in my monoblogue Accountability Project – so he’s more conservative than most in the body, but not as strident as, say, an Andy Harris (who was among the top Senators.)

But there’s surely some disappointed Second District Republicans who thought they had a formidable candidate in McDonough – he even went so far as to hold a fundraiser with Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell. Its purpose: to “dump Dutch Ruppersberger & his Nancy Pelosi voting record.”  Meanwhile, the field for U.S. Senate already had a number of candidates, with the leaders among the group being 2010 GOP nominee Eric Wargotz and Dan Bongino, who has the backing of 2010 gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy and his wing of the Republican Party. From what I understand, the war of words has already begun between McDonough’s allies and Dan Bongino, portending a nasty primary fight Republicans don’t need (think of the 2008 First District tussle between Andy Harris, E. J. Pipkin, and Wayne Gilchrest for an example.)

Pat McDonough will do what he wants to do, but perhaps this move wasn’t the best for the Maryland GOP. Only time will tell.