Shorebird of the Week – June 2, 2011

In his last start against West Virginia, Jacob got off to a rough start but righted the ship for an effective seven innings.

Unlike a lot of previous campaigns, this year the Shorebirds’ strength is on the offensive end rather than on the mound.

But one of the more effective starters has amassed 5 quality starts, including shutting out the opposition for seven and eight innings at a time. It’s no wonder Jacob Pettit sports a 5-0 record, with the Shorebirds holding an 8-2 record in his 10 starts thus far. (In the two losses the bullpen lost one-run leads in the ninth inning; otherwise we could be a perfect 10-0 in games Pettit started.)

His success may be a little startling when you notice he wasn’t drafted until the 42nd round by the Orioles last year. But with the rookie team in Bluefield, Jacob anchored their starting rotation with a 2.68 ERA that belied his 3-5 won-lost record. More amazingly, Jacob walked but four batters in 57 innings pitched. Add one base on balls in a late-season five-inning Aberdeen appearance and that’s still walking less than one batter per nine innings and a dominating 1.03 WHIP.

Pettit has come down to earth a little bit as he faces more discerning hitters at a higher level; still, he’s only allowed 21 walks in 59 2/3 innings and that’s about a respectable three per nine inning clip. (Five of those free passes were in his last start, where he gutted out a seven-inning stint, giving up two runs on three hits.)

Obviously the 24 year old Washington native who played at Division II Western Oregon State didn’t attract a lot of notice from the scouts, and was probably seen by the Orioles as an organization player. But Jacob is taking advantage of the opportunity presented to him as a member of the Shorebirds’ starting rotation and has done his part to keep the team successful.

Shorebird of the Week – May 26, 2011

Mike Flacco has seen a lot of time at first base this season.

Mike Flacco has made some more meaningful bat magic since this snapshot earlier this month.

If I haven’t already selected a player as SotW, it’s pretty much automatic that when a Shorebird is named the South Atlantic League Player of the Week I follow with my honors. Such is the case with Mike Flacco – in truth, this press announcement from the Shorebirds reads a lot like what I would normally say.

Obviously one has to wonder whether his more famous brother may have influenced the Orioles (as opposed to another team) into selecting Mike out of Catonsville Community College – while he played his college ball in Maryland, Mike is a New Jersey native who was indeed picked fairly late in the draft as a 31st rounder. Yet Mike is into his second year of success at this level, having hit .324 with a .804 OPS in 29 games here last season. (Mike was also 3-for-19 in a late season 2009 cameo with the Shorebirds.)

Since he is 24 and in his third season at this level – although he’s only played 68 games with Delmarva, less than a half-season’s worth of work – perhaps we should expect this sort of overall performance and the 17-for-29 mark he had last week (it’s actually a .586 clip, as opposed to the .538 on the presser) just established Mike at his normal level after a seasonlong slump. Perhaps the one thing holding him back is a lack of power, since he’s hit just one home run (back in April) in over 240 at-bats here. However, he is just three back of his career high in doubles (15 in 2009) in less than half the at-bats he had that season, so perhaps Mike can wind up as a doubles-hitting machine like onetime Shorebirds Brian Roberts or Nick Markakis.

In an organization brimming with talented young first basemen up and down the chain, Flacco will need to keep having weeks like those for which he was honored to attract notice for himself and step out of the long shadow cast by his older brother.

Shorebird of the Week – May 19, 2011

Ty Kelly in a familiar position this month - leading off base.

Before he hit his hot streak, Ty Kelly was looking for answers in this April game.

Ty Kelly has accomplished a rare feat; picking up an already solid .267 average 100 points in the second month of the season.

At the end of April he was 12-for-45, but so far in May he has hit in every game (28-for-64, a .438 clip) to place his .367 mark among the league leaders. Included in that string was a 5-for-5 mark on Tuesday against Lakewood; a game where Ty cracked his first home run of the season.

Aside from changing his uniform number, Ty has been the same steady performer as he was here in 2010 – just at a higher level. You may recall his decent Shorebird numbers from last year – a .259 average with 4 homers, 58 runs batted in, and a .721 OPS mark – and the fact he played in all but 11 of the team’s 140 games last year.

This year Ty sat out a few April games as the Shorebirds’ infield is loaded with prospects, but since getting regular playing time in the absence of megaprospect Manny Machado Kelly has taken advantage of the situation and it will be hard to keep him out of the lineup when Manny returns. This despite the fact Ty was only a 13th round pick in 2009 out of Cal-Davis.

Since Ty doesn’t turn 23 until later this season, he may find himself making a run at piling up some of the numbers he compiled last season, a campaign where he paced the team in a number of offensive categories. Obviously the competition in that regard has improved this season, so it appears Kelly has stepped up his game to match.

A symptom or a disease?

Most of the readers around these parts know I follow the Delmarva Shorebirds closely, and I go to a lot of games over the course of a season. But something I’ve noticed this season came out when I was cleaning out the office over the weekend.

I found a stat sheet from about this point last season, and what it revealed was surprising: through 19 openings in 2010 the Shorebirds had drawn 65,290 fans. This year opening number 19 came yesterday; however, only 49,612 had attended the games to date. That’s about a 24% drop from season to season, and if the trend continues the club will fall well short of its previous low attendance figure.

Of course there are caveats to these stats; for one thing the preponderance of games for the Shorebirds thus far have been at home and they hit the 19 opening mark a week or so earlier than they did in 2010. Attendance seems to pick up once school is out and the weather gets warmer.

Yet the team is more competitive than last year’s model, sporting a 22-15 record thus far compared to 17-20 at the same point in 2010. They also have one of the best prospects in baseball (Manny Machado) and are far more offensively gifted then the 2010 team, hitting .276 as a squad and averaging over 5 1/2 runs a game. If chicks dig the longball, they should be happy as Delmarva’s hit 25 as a team so far in about 1/4 of the season (compared to 63 for a full season last year.)

So why aren’t people showing up?

It’s not ticket prices, because they haven’t appreciably increased, and the parking fee remains the same as last year, when it was instituted for the first time. Food isn’t much more expensive, either. Perdue Stadium is sporting a new line scoreboard which replaces most of the functions previously placed on the videoboard in right-center field (which is also working much better this year.) Promotions are reasonably comparable to last season’s lineup, and obviously the team has pushed ticket deals which include admission to the South Atlantic League All-Star Game in June.

In truth, the biggest difference seems to be that the sluggish economy and high gas prices are keeping people home. People who are having trouble making ends meet don’t have a lot of money to go to a ballgame, even if they’re spotted two free tickets for having a child who reads a certain number of books. The fireworks shows that used to draw 5,000 to 6,000 now bring in about 1,000 less, and over a season that will add up.

I don’t think we are at a critical point yet because there’s the financial backing from the Orioles – they pay the players. While there wasn’t a direct competitor to the Shorebirds in the immediate region, some of the financial struggles being encountered by independent baseball leagues across the country (a number of teams folded and leagues merged after the 2010 season) indicate the entertainment industry is hitting a rough patch in many places. (Maryland only has one independent team, the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs of the Atlantic League. Along with the Frontier League, these two leagues are perhaps the most financially solvent of the independent leagues out there.)

I bring this up because there’s always a number of cities which would love to acquire an affiliated minor league baseball team, as Delmarva did from Albany, Georgia after the 1995 season. While the SAL has been relatively stable over the last few years, there was one franchise move where Columbus, Georgia lost a team that moved to Bowling Green, Kentucky. (That team, along with the Lake County Captains, shifted to the Midwest League after the 2009 season for travel reasons.)

We are truly blessed to be a city of 30,000 in a county of under 100,000 people yet have a minor league baseball team which is relatively successful. And it may just be an anomaly that attendance so far is dragging well behind last year’s pace – a good homestand or two will get it caught up.

But the economic doldrums we’ve experienced here for the last half-decade or so (essentially since the real-estate bubble burst and the growth slowed to a crawl) may be finally taking its toll on this particular institution. It’s hard to imagine a summer on Delmarva without baseball, but if this trend continues for a few more years that may well happen. Seventh Inning Stretch is out to make a profit, and they may not be all that loyal to the area if attendance continues to wane.

Shorebird of the Week – May 12, 2011

Tossing around the horsehide before an April game, Kipp Schutz has solidified the Shorebirds' outfield.

Despite the fact there’s a more publicized prospect on the Shorebirds’ roster, the offensive leader which has emerged this far is outfielder Kipp Schutz. One can’t argue with a .381/3/28 batting line nor a 1.002 OPS.

Over the last few seasons the Shorebirds have featured speedy outfielders like Xavier Avery and Matt Angle, both of whom have progressed up the system after playing well with Delmarva. Kipp, however, is more the prototypical hard-hitting corner outfielder. And runners in scoring position? So far Kipp has been money, hitting .462 in that situation. No wonder he’s leading the team in runs batted in, besides being fourth in the league in that category (and second in average – he trails only megaprospect Bryce Harper of Hagerstown in both categories.)

For Schutz, an Indiana native who just turned 23 during spring training, this is his first shot at full-season ball. After being drafted out of Indiana University by the Orioles as a 19th round pick two years ago, Kipp spent a summer apiece in Bluefield and Aberdeen. After a mediocre .252/1/15 line in 40 games at Bluefield two seasons ago, Schutz blossomed last season in Aberdeen with a .313/4/42 line in 68 games for the IronBirds, meriting his selection as a New York-Penn League All-Star.

With a limited number of good corner outfielders in the Orioles’ system, there’s a good chance that we won’t see Kipp around after the All-Star break, so enjoy his sweet left-handed stroke and solid outfield play while you can.

Shorebird of the Week – May 5, 2011

Scott in his first start, April 11 against Kannapolis.
Hitting a rough patch in his first start of the year April 11, Scott Copeland gets advice from pitching coach Troy Mattes and catcher Justin Dalles.

In his last start, Scott Copeland returned to the form he had when he first arrived at Delmarva.

Last September 1st Scott made his one and only 2010 appearance for Delmarva, spinning six shutout innings and winning a 1-0 pitchers duel against Kannapolis. That followed a solid 12 starts for Aberdeen where Copeland was only 2-5, but sported a superb 2.91 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .197 average.

Fast forward a few months and on Monday night Scott found that form again, tossing 6 2/3 shutout innings at Charleston in the Shorebirds’ 8-0 win.

While Scott is deemed the fifth starter due to his spot in the rotation, he’s put together a pretty good campaign thus far in 2011. The native Texan and Southern Mississippi University product is 2-0 so far (including Monday’s win) with a 3.07 ERA in five starts. Picked as a senior and well down in the draft – Scott was a 21st round selection – it may be surprising to some that Scott has advanced this quickly, but as I noted above he mowed down Aberdeen’s opponents without a lot of problems.

Perhaps the one flaw in Scott’s game which has cropped up at times this year is a tendency to walk a lot of batters. He hasn’t escaped from any of his starts unblemished in that regard and has walked five in a start twice – back on Monday in 6 2/3 innings and April 21 at Augusta (4 2/3 innings.) A ratio of 19 strikeouts to 17 walks may signal he needs to be more aggressive, since he’s proven thus far to be a good ground-ball pitcher (3.13 ground outs for each fly out.) One would believe he could last longer in games by economizing his pitches and allowing a little more contact.

Starting pitching has been a key to the Shorebirds’ early success and Scott is pulling his weight in that regard.

Shorebird of the Week – April 28, 2011

David Walters is instructed by catcher Michael Ohlman before taking the mound and earning the save against Savannah April 27.

David Walters gets set to face Savannah in an April 27 game. He would toss a scoreless ninth.

During the six game winning streak Delmarva currently enjoys, we’ve seen a few close games. The man Ryan Minor counts on to put out the fire is closer David Walters, who is tied for the South Atlantic League lead with six saves racked up thus far.

Overall, his numbers may not look all that impressive – in eight appearances Walters is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.45. But when you have the game on the line, a bad inning will generally accrue entirely against your stats; either you get the save or the loss. Walters has been the last Delmarva pitcher used in seven of his eight games; that eighth game added 4 earned runs to his totals in just 2 innings pitched. So as a true closer he’s 0-1 with a much more respectable 2.35 ERA, saving 6 out of 7 chances.

David, a product of Francis Marion University and Mariottsville, Maryland, is one of those who was passed over in the 2009 draft and signed as a minor-league free agent by the Orioles. (However, he could have been a Atlanta Braves prospect since they drafted him in the 47th round in 2008.) Nevertheless, he moved up through the Orioles system quickly enough that the 23-year-old landed in Delmarva for the tail end of the 2010 campaign. For the Shorebirds he was 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 22 games, covering 25 2/3 innings. Walters finished third among ‘Bird pitchers with 4 saves as well.

Perhaps the biggest asset David has is the heavy sinker which makes him a ground ball machine – his current 3.17 ratio of ground outs to fly outs means he’s as likely to induce a double play ball as strike out a batter. He’s only struck out 21 batters in 35 1/3 Shorebird innings over the last two seasons so David pitches more to contact.

Because he wasn’t a high draft pick, David may not move up the organizational ladder as quickly as, say, a Manny Machado or Trent Mummey. This means he has a chance to set a Shorebird save record as long as we keep winning. (The best save mark I’ve found in quick research is 33, by Derek Brown in 1998.) And since that ’98 team won 81 games, that gave Brown plenty of opportunities – let’s hope David can be as successful.

By the way, the Daily Times also did a profile on David on Sunday so the word must be out.

 

Shorebird of the Week – April 21, 2011

So far Schoop has been holding down third base in Ryan Minor's lineup.

Jonathan Schoop gets ready for a plate appearance in an April game.

It all started a generation ago with a guy named Hensley Meulens. A career minor leaguer who spent time in the big leagues with the Yankees, Expos, and Diamondbacks, he was the first player from the island of Curacao (at least according to www.Baseball-Almanac.com) to make his major league debut in 1989, with the more renowned Andruw Jones coming up with the Braves a few years later.

While players from Curacao are not strangers to the Orioles organization (as one example, we had outfielder Quincy Ascension a few years back) they’re still pretty rare. The latest native of that land to chase his dream through Delmarva is this week’s Shorebird of the Week honoree, Jonathan Schoop. First of all, the last name isn’t pronounced “scoop” or “shoop”, but “scope.”

However you say it, though, the guy is raking so far. While there’s some 18-year old phenom bonus baby playing a few strides to Schoop’s left every night, the 19-year old is killing lefties so far (admittedly, 6-for-8 with a home run and 5 RBI is a small sample, but it bodes well) and leads the team (or is tied for the top spot) in several offensive categories: games played (13), at-bats (52), triples (2), and home runs (2).

Schoop got his start when he was signed by the Orioles (at the age of 16) and sent to play in the Dominican Summer League in 2009. There he hit .239/0/35 in 68 games, but the scouts were impressed enough to send him stateside to debut in the Gulf Coast League last summer. Jonathan did well enough there to move along to Bluefield and eventually Frederick – overall he hit .290/5/35 between the three stops (although he was only 5-for-21 in 6 Frederick contests.)

If he keeps hitting this way (18-for-52 so far, with the two homers and 9 RBI) Jonathan may be back in Frederick to finish out the year. Considering a lot of players his age are either playing college ball or playing at rookie league, the Orioles may have found a diamond in the rough among the nearly 150,000 citizens living on that baseball outpost.

Shorebird of the Week – April 14, 2011

The Orioles prized prospect

The question was not if, but how soon Manny Machado would be the Shorebird of the Week. Well, today is the day. It was going to have to be early in the season because, quite frankly, it would be a complete shock to Shorebird fans if he stayed here the entire summer. The way he’d started the season he looked to be Frederick-bound by May, although he’s cooled off of late.

Still, when you’re a first-round draft pick and considered a team’s top prospect with all of nine professional games under your belt there’s bound to be a sensation. So far Manny’s taken it in stride, and he’s off to an 8-for-24 start in his first seven games as a Shorebird (although he’s just 1-for-9 since Sunday.) Yet project a .333 average out and that should be among the league leaders later this summer – he’s already second in the league with seven walks (compared to five strikeouts) and a .984 OPS is nothing to sneeze at.

With the Orioles so high on Machado, there’s little reason to think Manny will be here beyond the All-Star break so enjoy him while you can. He was wearing out Greensboro’s pitching and it’s difficult to believe that Manny won’t make the adjustments to whatever SAL pitchers throw at him – after all, some predict he’ll be gracing the left side of the Orioles’ infield by the end of next season.

That may be a touch optimistic, but Manny has all the tools needed to succeed at this and higher levels – it’s now strictly a matter of gaining experience.

Shorebird of the Week – April 7, 2011

As my Shorebird of the Week feature enters its sixth season tonight, it’s without precedent that a player I selected as a Shorebird of the Year makes a return trip to Delmarva. But indeed Brian Conley is coming back.

I picked Brian as my SotY because he had a relatively good season of enough length to establish a body of work. He hit .270/6/29 for Delmarva last season in 98 games (for those new to Shorebird of the Week, the stat line is shorthand for batting average/home runs/runs batted in.) Brian also showed a discerning eye at the plate, walking and striking out an even 70 times apiece – normally the ratio at this level runs about 2 strikeouts per walk, or more. The performance from the 17th round 2008 Oriole draft selection out of Towson University was good enough to earn him a late-season promotion to Frederick.

Unfortunately, that Carolina League casting call wasn’t reflective of Brian’s Delmarva success. In 16 games and 45 at-bats Brian hit just .222 with a homer and 4 RBI. Perhaps that’s the reason he regressed to Delmarva this season, but he along with Kieron Pope will lend a veteran presence to a team which has its share of young stars. Since Brian turns 25 on May 7th, his role may have become one of mentor to several up-and-coming prospects rather than potentially joining Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in Camden Yards.

But the fan favorite will begin his third season at Perdue Stadium with a chance to help the team improve on last year’s 59-81 record. Look for Brian to hold down a corner outfield spot and be penciled into the lineup on a regular basis.

Two future inductees

The Shorebird of the Week Hall of Fame will have a multi-player induction class in 2011.

Tomorrow Zach Britton will take the ball for the Orioles as they wrap up their opening series in Tampa. His fate was the subject of much debate amongst fans because of a rule which allowed the Orioles an extra year of control over him if he had stayed in the minors beyond April 21. But when Brian Matusz cut short a throwing workout yesterday, it was learned he had strained his intercostal muscle and will require a trip to the disabled list, so the Britton era in Baltimore will begin tomorrow.

Britton was my Shorebird of the Week back on August 7, 2008. He’s the first 2008 season honoree to make the jump to the Show, but not the first to make it this season.

It may have been little noticed except to hardcore baseball fans, but a couple former Oriole farmhands were lost to the Rule 5 Draft over the winter – a special draft where players who have played in the minor leagues a certain amount of time but not placed on the team’s 40 man roster have an opportunity to be scooped up by another team in return for a cash consideration. The stipulation is that the player must remain on a team’s roster for the full season or be returned to the original team for half the price paid.

While pitcher Pat Egan was returned by the Milwaukee Brewers after a stint in their camp, the other major league Rule 5 pick from the Orioles indeed made his team. Pedro Beato pitched yesterday evening for the Mets, thus becoming SotWHoF member number four and the initial member of the Class of 2011. He was a Shorebird of the Week on May 10, 2007 and is the third player honored that season to crack a big league roster. Pedro is also the first to debut as a non-Orioles player, although fellow SotWHoF member David Hernandez is now property of the Arizona Diamondbacks after the Mark Reynolds trade.

In the meantime, I’ll begin working on the 2011 crop of Shorebird of the Week honorees on Thursday. It will be a bit more difficult because of my work schedule, but I’m working on making the posts better than ever.

On the O’s: guarded optimism

As spring training begins for the local hometown teams, it appears fans are cautiously optimistic about the Orioles’ chances – at least that’s how they polled here.

Let’s do a quick review: since losing the 1997 ALCS to Cleveland, the Orioles have been among the most mediocre of franchises as they’ve endured 13 straight losing seasons – in fact, the 70-win mark has eluded them the last four. But the majority of those responding thought the revamped Orioles, who have added power bats like Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and perhaps Vladimir Guerrero (assuming he passes a physical) would eclipse that number and maybe – just maybe – break that string of losing seasons.

But the optimism stopped there, as no one expected the team to win 90 games or make the playoffs. Perhaps that’s more due to the reputation of the American League East than actual talent level.

And there were a few who chose to be pessimistic, as 1/6 of those voting foresaw the moves blowing up in Andy McPhail’s face. They figured a 100-loss season wasn’t out of the question, and if neither Derrek Lee nor Mark Reynolds adjusts well to the American League, Vladimir is indeed in the coda of his career, and the pitching fails us it could happen. But I fall into the camp of thinking 81 or more wins is indeed possible. (Over 80% believed Baltimore should win at least 75 games.)

With the season now just around the corner, optimism is king and all 30 teams might fancy themselves World Series contenders. (Okay, maybe not the woeful – as in 57-105 last season – Pittsburgh Pirates. They’ve actually gone nearly two decades without a winning season, which is too bad because they play in a nice ballpark. And to think these two franchises tangled for a World Series crown twice back in the 1970’s – I remember the ’79 Series well although O’s fans might prefer to forget.)

Hopefully an improved major league teams pays dividends down the chain as well since the Shorebirds fans are overdue for a playoff team. I’ve seen one playoff game in six seasons here so consider me one who thinks it’s time!

The Orioles’ season starts on April 1 at Tampa Bay, with the home opener April 4 against Detroit. (Sorry about that home opening sweep by the Tigers; things will look up from there.)

Poll results:

  • 62.5% believe the Orioles could finish with a .500 season (81-81)
  • 20.83% foresee a 75-win season
  • 12.5% think they’ll lose 100 games
  • 4.17% believe they’ll only match the 66-96 mark last year’s team produced
  • No one saw the Orioles win 90 games, make the playoffs, or win the World Series