I’m going to begin with the Presidential race, on a statewide level. There have already been several polls on this, so there’s a little bit of cheating involved; then again, the polls actually pretty much mirrored my gut instinct all along.

In Maryland, I see the race like this:

1. Mitt Romney – 41%
2. Rick Santorum – 28%
3. Newt Gingrich – 16%
4. Ron Paul – 11%
5. Fred Karger – 2%
6. Rick Perry – <1%
7. Buddy Roemer – <1%
8. Jon Huntsman – <1%

The polls seem to have Romney winning bigger (Rasmussen has it 45-28) but I think Mitt’s people will tend to figure he’s got it in the bag and turnout will be better in certain areas where Gingrich and Paul may run a little stronger.

How about Wicomico County? This is more of a crapshoot but I think the top 4 results will be a little different:

1. Rick Santorum – 35%
2. Mitt Romney – 33%
3. Newt Gingrich – 18%
4. Ron Paul – 13%

The voters here tend to be more conservative than the state at large.

The other statewide race is for U.S. Senate. Now I’m really going to go out on a limb here, because there aren’t any polls I’m aware of (aside from the sure fact campaigns have internal polling I’m not privy to) but my gut is telling me we may have a barnburner on our hands:

1. Dan Bongino – 36%
2. Richard Douglas – 34%
3. Robert Broadus – 8%
4. Corrogan Vaughn – 5%
5. Joseph Alexander – 4%
6. David Jones – 4%
7. William Capps – 3%
8. Rick Hoover – 3%
9. John Kimble – 2%
10. Brian Vaeth – 1%

In Wicomico County, I suspect the top three will be Bongino (42%), Douglas (36%), and Broadus (8%). None of the others will be over 3 percent. Incumbent Ben Cardin will be the opponent, with the over-under line for me being 70% of the statewide vote.

And how about the Sixth District race? It’s the most talked-about Congressional primary since the 2008 First District primary, with the added benefit of mud flying on both sides.

On the Republican side, I think Roscoe Bartlett will hold on to his seat with 33% of the vote, with David Brinkley gathering 29%, Joseph Krysztforski 14%, Robin Ficker 10%, and Kathy Afzali 7%. The other three will split the remaining 7%.

What saves Bartlett’s bacon is the fact that there are so many in the race that people may just throw up their hands and go with the name they know. If there were just four or five in the race I think Brinkley has a shot, although the last-minute release of 9-1-1 tapes featuring his ex-wife may knock a point or two away from Brinkley and provide Roscoe’s margin of victory. It’s the voters on the extreme western end of the district who are likely most swayed by that because they don’t really know David that well.

On the Democratic side, I’m sensing a bit of an upset. We figured that this seat was drawn for Rob Garagiola, but I suspect the charges laid against him by John Delaney have done enough damage that Delaney will squeak out a close win, something on the order of 31-30. Milad Pooran will likely run a respectable third with 21%, while Ron Little grabs 10% and Charles Bailey the last 8%.

The Second District GOP race is also interesting, but I think Nancy Jacobs will win it with relative ease, probably with 40% or so of the vote. Larry Smith comes in around 28%, Rick Impallaria with 19%, and the other two with single digits apiece.

Meanwhile, I think John LaFerla will be the First District Democratic nominee against Andy Harris and he’ll end up just short of a majority – 49% district-wide against Wendy Rosen’s 43%. Kim Letke will get the last 8%. What puts LaFerla over the top in the primary is the endorsement of Wayne Gilchrest. What keeps him from winning in November is being endorsed by NARAL and Planned Parenthood.

GOP winners in other districts will be Eric Knowles (3rd), Faith Loudon (4th), Tony O’Donnell (5th), Frank Mirabile (7th), and Dave Wallace (8th). Wallace gets the nod because the other three candidates will likely split the Montgomery County vote just enough for him to win over Ken Timmerman. Of course, there will not be any upsets among the incumbent Democrats – all of them will get over 75% in their respective primaries.

So what do you think? Am I all wet or do I have a good chance of being correct – and why? As opposed to yesterday, I’m going to leave this up all day until results come in.

Video streaming by Ustream

The Maryland GOP was heavily promoting this event, so if you haven’t made up your mind yet, this is a chance to do so.

When the filing deadline came and went in January, we ended up with ten people on the ballot seeking to challenge incumbent Senator Ben Cardin on the Republican side. (There are also eight Democratic challengers who, with the exception of State Senator C. Anthony Muse, will be lucky to see 20 percent of the vote as a collection.)

But if you look at the ten on our side as a group, you can start to pick out those who have a legitimate chance pretty early. Some have been on the ballot before, but have never come close to grabbing the brass ring. You know, one would think guys like Corrogan Vaughn or John Kimble might get the hint at some point but they soldier on nonetheless, appearing on ballot after ballot every two years for some office. This is Vaughn’s fourth Senate try (counting an abortive 2010 run) and Kimble’s third, although he’s been on a ballot every two years for some federal office since 1996. Another 2012 candidate, Joseph Alexander, ran in the 2010 Senate primary and finished a distant third with 5.9% of the vote.

Others have been in local races and lost. Rick Hoover ran twice for the Third District Congressional nod in 2004 and 2006 and didn’t distinguish himself enough to not be an also-ran. William Capps took on an incumbent State Senator and lost in 2010, while Robert Broadus had the unenviable task of attempting to win as a Republican in the Fourth Congressional District. While Broadus only gathered 16% of the vote, it was a better showing than the Republican winner had in 2008 against Edwards. But even Broadus lost in the 2008 primary – he was unopposed in 2010.

There are four others who are making their first run for statewide office, with Brian Vaeth and David Jones the lesser-known duo of the group. I haven’t heard anything from Vaeth, but David Jones is a candidate who, with some polish and a more appropriate race for a single dad to get into (on the scale of a countywide or House of Delegates district contest) could have a future in the political arena. He had a message which was trying to come out, but a statewide campaign presents an awfully steep learning curve.

Out of the eight I have cited so far, the battle for third place shapes up between Broadus, based on his performance in a difficult district and the ready-made issue he has with his position as head of Protect Marriage Maryland, Alexander (simply based on 2010 results), and Jones (as a hard worker who’s quite likable.) One of the others might surprise me, but these are the guys who seem to me as the aspirants for Miss Congeniality.

Yet the race is really coming down to two men. Each brings something unique to the table.

Richard Douglas began his campaign with some advantages: as a staffer for the late Senator Jesse Helms, he knows about how the system works and where it can be taken advantage of. He also garnered the support early on of two key groups: foreign policy experts, personified by Ambassadors Roger Noriega and John Bolton, and many among the Maryland GOP brass, most notably former Chair Audrey Scott.

A lot of what Rich spoke about early on came from the realm of foreign policy, the understanding of which is a Senator’s duty. But it didn’t seem to be a message which resonated much beyond the five percent or so of Republicans who truly follow that aspect of political life. So in the last month Douglas has shifted his approach to emphasize more of a populist, anti-incumbent appeal. He’s hammered Ben Cardin of late on a number of taxation issues, many of which come on a state level, and blasted Ben for a lack of interest in job creation.

On the other hand, Dan Bongino has mainly stuck to economic issues as his strong suit. But he also brings a willingness to not concede the votes of the minority community; instead he wants to broaden the Republican base by exploiting certain wedge issues which resonate with urban voters – a prime example is school choice. Moreso than Douglas, he notes a background which plays well with certain aspects of the community as Bongino grew up poor and worked his way to success in the law enforcement field.

When the campaign was relatively young, I realized that the race would probably come down to Bongino and Douglas. It was at that point that I assessed the following:

So the question for voters is going to be an interesting one if you presume Rich Douglas and Dan Bongino are the two leading candidates. It’s obvious that Richard’s forte is foreign affairs, while Bongino seems to have a lead with those who favor smaller government – the TEA Party crowd. So how will the pair cover themselves on what would be perceived as their weaker points?

Obviously it appears Douglas is trying to move into the territory Bongino set for himself early on. But while I didn’t necessarily agree with Bongino’s Afghanistan stance at the time, the more I study on the subject the more I think he could be correct. And something Dan related to me after the Lincoln Day Dinner, in a conversation I didn’t elaborate on at the time, convinced me he isn’t completely naive about foreign affairs. When you’re placed in charge of a security detail in a war zone, you must either know a little bit about the lay of the land or you’re a quick study. In either case, Bongino was given that responsibility.

So it comes down to this. If Richard Douglas is the GOP nominee on April 4, I would be very comfortable working for his election to the Senate. He’s a candidate who’s shown me that he has the skills necessary to be a Senator and also that he’s not afraid to take on his opponent. Of course, he’ll be at a distinct financial disadvantage against Ben Cardin and his later entry in the race has taken the time away from developing the grassroots support he’ll need by November.

But there are two key areas which have set Dan Bongino apart, and they’re the ones which tip the scales in his favor.

One is the willingness to fight for every vote that I have cited and the reason he’s doing so is because, as Dan has often stated, he has no “Plan B.” One could say he was foolish to give up a Secret Service gig but if love of country is that important to him then Dan should be commended for his sacrifice. I don’t think he’d be unemployed too long if he lost.

But another important thing Bongino is doing is nationalizing the Maryland U.S. Senate campaign. To some extent, Andy Harris showed us how this could be done: the Club for Growth was instrumental in putting him on the map and there was a huge amount of national interest in the First District rematch in 2010 because of it. It’s true that Frank Kratovil’s 2008 victory was somewhat of an anomaly because Barack Obama’s coattails were long enough for Kratovil to win an R+13 district, but beating an incumbent Congressman is a difficult task that Andy Harris has actually accomplished twice, in part by nationalizing the race. The effects of this show most in Bongino’s fundraising and grassroots support, both of which are formidable by GOP standards.

Thus, I finally came to the decision that Dan Bongino is the better choice. But if you’re already set to vote for Richard Douglas, I think you should since he’s a quite qualified candidate as well. It’s the 15 to 20 percent who were planning on voting for the other eight who should seriously reconsider their decision and instead press the screen to place the X next to Bongino’s name. Those eight are all good men who care about the state, but we need all hands on deck to defeat a man who has lived off the voters for 46 years, inheriting his original position from his uncle (who shared the Cardin surname.)

Now I want to say a few words about some of the Congressional races.

There are five Republican members of the General Assembly who have the luxury of “running from cover” in this cycle; unfortunately the timing of the primary has meant that all five have had to do so around the ongoing General Assembly session.

Honestly, I haven’t followed the races enough to be an expert on all of the candidates running for Congress. But what I can tell you about these five is how they have fared in the monoblogue Accountability Project.

In 2011, the candidates received these mAP scores:

1. Nancy Jacobs (running in the Second Congressional District) – 92%
2. Kathy Afzali (running in the Sixth Congressional District) – 88%
3. David Brinkley (running in the Sixth Congressional District) – 84%
4. Tony O’Donnell (running in the Fifth Congressional District) – 80%
5. Rick Impallaria (running in the Second Congressional District) – 80%

Bear in mind 2011 scores were based on 25 votes so each got between 20 and 23 “correct.”

Lifetime mAP scores (for all except Afzali, these are based on five years since I began the mAP in 2007):

1. Afzali – 88% (based on 2011 only)
2. O’Donnell – 85%
3. Impallaria – 77%
4. Jacobs – 77%
5. Brinkley – 75%

This is compiled over 5 years and well over 100 votes in most cases. Take from it what you will about my order of preference in those races, but as a measure of comparison Andy Harris had a “lifetime” score close to 90 percent in the four years I compiled his voting record.

If you want to see one up close and in person, you may simply attend the Republican Women of Wicomico’s Membership Lunch this Wednesday at noon at Brew River Restaurant, when Richard Douglas will be their featured speaker. Perhaps he’ll talk about the Israeli situation, where Douglas blasted the incumbent Senator for discussing postal closures and not making any statement on Iran in nearly six months. Or Douglas may tout his latest endorsement from Baltimore County Delegate Bill Frank, who called Douglas “the right candidate at the right time.” Certainly he’ll update those attending on his campaign to date.

The cost is $12, and reservations are available from Brew River. But call tomorrow (Tuesday) to assure a place.

Right now you can sit in the comfort of your easy chair – or wherever you access this site – and see a 90-second video put together on Dan Bongino’s behalf.

Interestingly enough, I saw my first Bongino yard sign today locally so the word is beginning to get out on him. “Government is not the answer. We are the answer.” It’s a good message. And who knows, perhaps I can get that video to 1,000 views by placing it here.

We have two good candidates for Senate who have a reasonable shot. That’s not to dismiss the other eight who are running, as all of them who I’ve met seem to be men of character and honor. But the realist in me sees this as now a two-man race for a number of reasons, particularly money and visibility.

Consider these social media facts. If you take the  footprint of their respective websites based on Alexa ratings and the reach of their Facebook and Twitter pages, this is what you would find among the U.S. Senate candidates. Granted, Alexa is sort of a weak indicator of readership but it’s a decent indicator of relative popularity between sites – I would be confident that a site with a rating of 3 million is more widely read than one at 7 million.

Alexa ranking (lower is better):

1. Dan Bongino – 2,652,827
2. Ben Cardin – 3,543,017
3. Richard Douglas – 3,609,731
4. David Jones – 6,604,886
5. Robert Broadus – 7,137,723
6. William Capps – 8,325,982
7. John Kimble – 10,628,905
8. Brian Vaeth – 11,095,766
9. Rick Hoover – 11,786,645
10. Corrogan Vaughn – no data (I think his site is new at the address.)

Not every candidate has a Facebook or Twitter page devoted to their campaign, but for those who do here are likes and follows, respectively:

Facebook:

1. Ben Cardin – 3,500
2. Dan Bongino – 1,680
3. Corrogan Vaughn – 157
4. Rich Douglas – 81
5. Brian Vaeth – 25
6. Robert Broadus – 17
7. Rick Hoover – 4

Twitter:

1. Dan Bongino – 1,317
2. David Jones – 819
3. Corrogan Vaughn – 149
4. Rich Douglas – 108
5. Rick Hoover -27

(Apparently, Ben Cardin’s campaign isn’t on Twitter.)

It’s fairly evident that Bongino has a good lead in the social networking area, but that doesn’t always translate into votes. I was told that Bob Ehrlich had more Facebook followers than Martin O’Malley did and we see how that turned out.

And if you compare these numbers to a well-read website like Red Maryland, which perhaps has the best social media presence of any statewide political website, you’ll see all of them fall short on at least one count: Alexa for RM is 859,533 and they have 616 Facebook followers along with 761 on Twitter. Of course, a blog has far longer to build an audience so the Alexa should be expected; on the other hand, creating buzz should work in the favor of the campaigns yet only a few do better than the website.

But regardless of who wins this race on April 3rd, we need to close ranks behind them so that Ben Cardin is retired from public life come next January.

The forum was recorded in two parts, and the videos run just about two hours total. In order from left to right, the candidates are Bongino, Hoover, Vaughn, Broadus, Jones, and Douglas.

I’m going to allow you to make up your own mind on who won; some comported themselves well and made a solid presentation and others seemed a little ill at ease. At this time I like three candidates better than the others, but I would like to study a little bit more before I make a formal endorsement down the road.

Thanks to Jacklyn Gregory for putting the videos together and uploading them. The Cecil County Patriots and AFP Maryland have done a service to Republican voters. Just for fun I did a quick search for a similar event on the Democratic side, but it was no surprise I found nothing. It’s doubtful Ben Cardin would stoop so low as to honor his opponents with his consent to debate – a common trait I’ve found among incumbent Democrats.

Because this is a Presidential election year, Republicans and Democrats in most of Maryland will only have a few choices to make when primary voting arrives in late March. (Some will also have local races to consider.) In seven out of eight districts for both parties voters will have a choice for Congress, while all Maryland voters who participate in the primary will select their party’s standardbearer for the U.S. Senate seat. Only Republicans will have a choice for President as no one stepped forth to challenge Barack Obama on the primary ballot. There is also only one Republican running in the First Congressional District – incumbent Andy Harris – while Dutch Ruppersberger enjoys a similar free ride in his Second District Democratic primary. Convention delegates are also at stake for both parties in each Congressional district.

Now that the stage is set, it’s very likely that only two or three GOP presidential candidates will be left standing by the time the race reaches Maryland on April 3. The good news is that Maryland and the District of Columbia may be pretty much the only game in town that day. Wisconsin voters will be much more mindful of the effort to recall Governor Scott Walker and, depending on whether the Texas legislative districts go to court or not, their scheduled April 3 primary is likely to be pushed back.

But the Presidential sweepstakes will likely not be the most exciting race. Rather, the key races will be:

• The Second District Republican primary, where Delegate Rick Impallaria and State Senator Nancy Jacobs are leading the field of five contestants. Political newcomer Larry Smith is also running a spirited campaign.
• Both sides in the Sixth District. While Democratic State Senator Rob “Gas Tax” Garagiola had the district drawn to his advantage, challenger Milad Pooran has shown some fundraising prowess as well. Meanwhile, State Senator David Brinkley and Delegate Kathy Afzali are challenging incumbent Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, joining 2010 challenger Joseph Krysztoforski and four other GOP hopefuls in the Congressional side’s most crowded field.
• It looked like Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator Ben Cardin would face the usual cadre of perennial candidates until State Senator C. Anthony Muse jumped into the race. While Cardin is expected to handle this challenge, it will show just how many Democrats – particularly the black population they depend so heavily on – are backing the incumbent. If Cardin doesn’t carry areas like Prince George’s County or Baltimore City Cardin will have some fence-mending to do over the summer months to shore up the base.
• Meanwhile, the Republicans have their usual crowded field of ten candidates, who I’ll discuss in the next few paragraphs.

If you break down that race you’ll find that, just like the Democrats, there are several who are seemingly on the ballot just to see their name there. John Kimble is on his ninth straight federal ballot dating back to 1996, Corrogan Vaughn is on his fourth try for statewide office, Robert Broadus and Rick Hoover are on their third electoral run, and Joseph Alexander was third in the 2010 Senate race. William Capps also ran for state office in 2010. That’s not to say they have no shot at winning, but generally there’s a reason for their lack of previous success. Of that group, Vaughn and Broadus have probably been the most active at getting around the state and promoting their campaigns.

But in terms of money and backing, the two frontrunners have to be pegged as Rich Douglas and Dan Bongino. Bongino has raised the most money, and both have received a series of dueling endorsements from state and federal officeholders and other well-known figures. Both Bongino and Douglas have spoken before small groups (of which I was a part) here in Wicomico County as well.

I’ve pointed out before that the pair have a somewhat different focus in their respective campaigns.

Douglas seems to be more of the “establishment” candidate whose specialty lies more in the aspect of foreign affairs. He also plays up his experience in the Senate as a staffer for Senator Jesse Helms and his military experience. Conversely, Bongino resides more on the side of addressing economic issues and the role of government and doesn’t seem to be averse to mixing it up with his Democratic opponent. He’s also been more successful at getting national interest in his campaign. To me, it doesn’t matter so much who wins the Republican side – I’m looking for the guy who will finally represent this state as it should be represented, not a career politician building up his pension via 46 years in public office. (Yes, Ben Cardin was first elected to public office in 1966 – winning a House of Delegates seat held previously by his uncle. He was first elected when I was 2 years old!)

Although there could be a primary upset, I’d prefer that the retirement party for Ben Cardin be held on November 6. While most of the ten on the GOP side would be an improvement (I have my doubts on a couple) I would suspect the best chance of attaining that goal would rest with Rich Douglas or Dan Bongino.

(All photos on this post are courtesy of Donald Stifler.)

One source, a supposedly reliable one, stated that Harris made the statement at the TEA Party that he would vote for any of the Republican presidential candidates except Ron Paul – then again, the person relating this is a Ron Paul supporter. I’m seeing if there was any video of the event to corroborate this charge, but this wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Harris is one of the co-chairs of the Gingrich campaign in Maryland despite the fact that Newt endorsed Wayne Gilchrest in 2008 – as did Ron Paul. (Harris denies saying such a thing.)

According to a more legitimate news report, Harris held the audience of about 120 in the palm of his hand by answering a number of audience questions but he wasn’t the only speaker or even politician there. Three members of the Worcester County Commission were in attendance along with four of their Republican Central Committee – pictured below is Derrick Smith of the WCRCC along with U.S. Senate hopeful Corrogan Vaughn (right), who also spoke at the event.

Stifler noted that he was “pleased to see that Vaughn had to wait a couple of times during his speech due to the applause from the crowd when he compared the Civil Rights Movement to that of the Tea Party, speaking for his family that worked directly with Dr. King.” (Vaughn is a godchild of Dr. Ralph Abernathy, who worked with the slain civil rights leader and was with him when he was assassinated.)

“Corrogan attests to the fact that both were Republicans and if alive today these men would be active in the Tea Party,” Stifler continued.

That’s sort of an interesting flip side when compared to the other groups who have adopted the mantle of the civil rights struggle, such as the gay rights movement. Moreover, the TEA Party isn’t necessarily about adopting new rights but re-establishing the God-given ones we are granted in our Constitution.

This meeting won’t be the last for the Worcester County group. Based on the interest from the first go-round, their next meeting will be Friday, February 17, once again at the Ocean Pines Community Center.

I can’t close, however, without at least quickly addressing the snide remark in the newspaper about the lack of younger people at the event. It isn’t surprising coming from the media, but to be perfectly honest an older crowd is rather typical of the composition of the average TEA Party meeting. But as long as there is at least some interest from a small group of younger people it’s progress, given the vast majority of those under 30 who voted for Barack Obama. Perhaps the economy and dread of a future where they can’t succeed as their parents did is beginning to bring them around to the right way of thinking.

Another upcoming event on the opposite end of the Shore which doesn’t yet feature Vaughn but already has six of his opponents as confirmed speakers will be sponsored by the Cecil County Patriots and Americans for Prosperity on Thursday, January 26 beginning at 7 p.m. It will be held at the American Legion Hall located at 300 Cherry Street in Perryville, and the public is invited to attend.

All ten GOP Senate candidates have been invited, and confirmed as participants are Dan Bongino, Robert Broadus, William Capps, Rich Douglas, Rick Hoover, and David Jones. (No word yet on Joesph Alexander, John Kimble, Brian Vaeth, or Vaughn.)

Questions for the forum can be submitted to info@cecilcountypatriots.com. For more information, please visit the Cecil County Patriots website or call Jackie Gregory at (410) 620-7667.

Update: According to Gregory, Vaughn will be participating in the event.

Brian Griffiths of Red Maryland pointed out that the Maryland Democratic Party tweeted their support of Senator Ben Cardin through this video featuring Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, despite the fact that State Senator C. Anthony Muse is also in the race (as are a host of other, mostly perennial candidates.) Obviously they don’t have something like Rule 11 in the Maryland Democratic Party. (Actually, according to Brian, yes they do.)

So where are the catcalls for Baker as an “Uncle Tom” or “Oreo”? He’s supporting the white guy over a qualified black candidate from his own county who’s biggest claim to fame of late was objecting to the Congressional redistricting map because it didn’t do enough for minorities.

Of course, two of the leading GOP candidates in the race have their own take on the situation as well.

Richard Douglas announced in a release that:

Incumbent Ben Cardin is being abandoned by his own base. African-American Prince George’s County Democratic State Senator Anthony Muse has entered the U.S. Senate primary against him.

Mr. Cardin’s oft-asserted electoral ‘invincibility’ is a myth (and) Muse’s challenge confirms it.

Added Dan Bongino:

I am not surprised that State Senator Muse, a representative of the citizens of Prince George’s County, has entered the US Senate race given the fact that Senator Cardin has done virtually nothing for Marylanders residing in Prince George’s County and Baltimore City with respect to education choice and job growth.

Since I wanted to get this out, I’ll just have to be curious what the two minority candidates in the GOP Senate race (Robert Broadus and Corrogan Vaughn) think about this development?

I’m all for contested primaries on both sides, but political insiders hate them because there’s money spent which might be used for the general election campaign and the infighting often provides fodder for the opposition to use on the eventual primary winner. So the Democrats’ willingness to endorse a candidate in the race pre-primary is unsurprising as par for their course. Our job is to exploit it as they would a fight on our side, and I think we have a very valid point.

The general assumption seems to be that anywhere between 80% and 95% of minority voters will vote for the Democrat in an electoral contest, regardless of race.

(Of course, that’s assuming they know who the Democrats are: citing the Voting Rights Act, the Obama Justice Department refused to allow the city of Kinston, North Carolina to adopt nonpartisan municipal races despite the fact only five municipalities in North Carolina still hold them and voters adopted a resolution in 2008 to scrap partisan city elections by a nearly 2:1 margin. Democrats have held every city office since the days of Reconstruction and make up the most of the registered voters. As well, nearly 2/3 of the voting population is black.)

But what if that percentage came down ten or twenty points, enough so that the Democratic party couldn’t take them for granted and Republicans wouldn’t simply write them off? Republicans point with justified pride to their role in passing civil rights legislation over the objection of southern Democrats, but since the days of the Great Society blacks have mainly remained electorally in the Democratic plantation. One has to ask what they’ve received for 50 years or more of unbroken Democratic support?

We know Democrats worry about black Republican candidates in Maryland breaking their stranglehold on minority voters, but pushing them to vote for the entrenched white guy in a primary? Yep, that’s the definition of being taken for granted.

But I was cheered to see the lineup for the Turning the Tides Conference presented by the Maryland Conservative Action Network, as it included a number of luminaries as well as breakout discussions on a number of subjects near and dear to the hearts of conservatives in Maryland and everywhere else, for that matter. Not only that, the event drew over 200 activists from across Maryland and received coverage from both the old and new media outlets. They even had their very own counterprotest from a liberal former member of the House of Delegates.

So it sounds like we had a nice event. But now the question is ‘where do we go from here?’

It’s obvious we on the right have some measure of power in Maryland, but it’s limited to what our state Constitution grants us. Thus far in 2011 our biggest victories have simply been stopping the most egregious initiatives coming from Governor O’Malley and General Assembly liberals. Examples would include the same-sex marriage bill that was stopped by the House of Delegates, the septic ban that went nowhere thanks to a public outcry from rural legislators, and the Maryland DREAM Act was thwarted thanks to over 130,000 Marylanders who signed the petition to send the bill to referendum. That’s left bill sponsors and allies only a tenuous court case that hinges on the legality of gathering prefilled petitions online. Assuming the court correctly holds up the process, this tactic could be used more often but there is a risk of overreach. Prior to this year’s petition drive it had been twenty years since a repeal even made the ballot, with an actual overturn not having occurred since the early 1970s.

For the foreseeable future, job one will be to attempt to hold serve with our Congressional delegation, whether it’s keeping Roscoe Bartlett’s seat in Republican hands or swiping a different seat from the Democrats to keep some company for Andy Harris in Maryland’s GOP delegation. And don’t think for a minute the smear campaign won’t be placed on Harris either, whether Frank Kratovil tries for round three or someone else gives it a shot. A name I’ve heard quite often is Jim Mathias – we know he knows how to vote left but run right.

The second task would be more herculean, but perhaps an upset of Ben Cardin is doable as part of a red tide that flips the U.S. Senate. And while Barack Obama is an even more prohibitive favorite to win our state, it would be great to see him have to campaign and spend part of his war chest here.

In all three cases, we need to get good conservative candidates for office, and it was noteworthy that five of the announced U.S. Senate candidates (Dan Bongino, Robert Broadus, William Capps, Rick Hoover, and Corrogan Vaughn) took time to address the gathering, while a possible sixth (Pat McDonough) made separate remarks. It might make you wonder what was up with Rich Douglas and Eric Wargotz. I was a bit surprised, though, that Andy Harris didn’t show up. Meanwhile, Richard Falknor at Blue Ridge Forum lamented the lack of participation from Maryland elected officials, noting that only a few showed up.

Those who attended serve a very important purpose for the Maryland Republican Party, although the party may not know it yet. These 200 people could well be next crop of 2014 candidates, campaign staff, and activists who try and improve the lot of Republicans already in the General Assembly – while we have matched our modern-day high water mark of 43 in the House, we lost two seats in the Senate and now have just 12. The goal for 2014 should be to get at least 19 Senators and 57 Delegates – enough, with a unified front, to stop liberal Democrats from enacting “emergency” legislation.

But it all begins with organization and communication. It’s noteworthy that the ‘Occupy Annapolis’ protest, with perhaps fifteen activists, got better coverage than the so-called hatefest occurring just down the road. We don’t mind flying under the radar, though. It’s more fun to shock the liberals when we win.

As I said in June when I did the last Senate one, I obviously know the polls are manipulated. But in making the assumption that those who would manipulate a poll exist in the same general proportion as supporters in the population at large, I can at least gather a trend. At least in this sort of instance it’s doubtful anyone would lie to a pollster.

These results, though, show a trend which may only be occurring within Republican circles until we know for sure if other key contenders are getting into the party. Here’s how the poll went:

1. Daniel Bongino – 3,425 votes (75.66%)
2. Eric Wargotz – 1,068 votes (23.59%)
3. Robert Broadus – 23 votes (0.51%)
4. William Capps – 5 votes (0.11%)
5. Rich Douglas – 2 votes (0.04%)
6. Rick Hoover – 2 votes (0.04%)
7. Pat McDonough – 1 vote (0.02%)
8. Corrogan Vaughn – 1 vote (0.02%)

Having said that a trend may exist, I need to caution those reading into the results that there’s little chance Dan Bongino will get 76% of the vote – I don’t care if the Constitutional Conservatives Fund of Senator Mike Lee has endorsed Dan or not, he’s not getting 75 percent of the GOP vote. In 2006 Michael Steele didn’t even get 90 percent and he was the sitting lieutenant governor, had plenty of name recognition, and basically controlled the whole Maryland GOP apparatus. I can see something in the 40′s for Bongino if all goes right but a lot depends on who else gets into the race and we won’t have a couple possible entrants with statewide name recognition make a formal announcement on their status until later this month.

But I have to admire how Dan is laying the groundwork for his campaign, including people passionate enough to drive internet poll numbers over 75 percent.

Let’s compare this to June numbers, for example. The number of votes cast was nearly the same (4,716 in June vs. 4,527 now) but the results were somewhat different:

1. Eric Wargotz – 44.87%
2. Daniel Bongino – 36.28%
3. William Capps – 17.62%
4. Corrogan Vaughn – 0.81%
5. Robert Broadus – 0.23%
6. Rick Hoover – 0.19%

Since I didn’t figure Capps ever really had 18 percent, the idea of a two-man race at the time had merit. But if Eric decides not to run – and remember, he had not made a final decision as of a couple weeks ago – that only leaves Pat McDonough as a possible major opponent. (I wouldn’t completely discount Rich Douglas either, given his background.)

This election is a little bit different than the last cycle, where the primary was late – so late, in fact, that federal law precludes us from having a September primary again. (Too bad, because I liked that compressed season.) Now there’s less than six months remaining until election day and truly we won’t be really paying attention until after the holidays anyway. It’s possible we could have a post-holiday bid, sort of like Bob Ehrlich’s coyness about his 2010 try for governor, but like Ehrlich it would have to be someone with some name recognition already because the filing deadline is January 11.

In any case it won’t be as easy as voting in a monoblogue poll.

As you may know, I have been testing the waters for a possible campaign against Dutch Ruppersberger for a seat in the 2nd Congressional District.  The Second District is a difficult challenge and an uphill fight for a Republican.  However, polling results and reaction from the voters during the last 6 months, including a powerful show of support in the annual popular July 4th Dundalk parade indicate my chances are good.  Radio and television exposure over many years and support for issues such as opposition to illegal immigration have provided me with high name recognition and voter approval.

Despite these advantages, that district still remains a challenge.  Of course, the re-districting and the new district will not be revealed until October.  At that time, if the 2nd Congressional District transforms from ‘uphill to impossible,’ my personal decision will become clear.  It will not make any sense to ask family, friends, and supporters to engage in a campaign that cannot be won.  That will be a choice forced upon me by political powers over which I have no influence or control.

My decision to consider a run for Congress is based on two simple conclusions:  1) Washington is a mess.   2) I believe I can help make a difference.  My top priority is to serve in Washington as a representative of the people.  After much thought and consultations with others, I have decided that if the 2nd Congressional District is gerrymandered rendering it impossible to win, I will take a serious look at seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland.

There is very little difference between Dutch Ruppersberger and Ben Cardin.  They are liberal political twins and Obama clones.  My vision for America is completely different than their tax and spend big government agenda.

I recognize that my critics will falsely charge that this plan may be indecisive.  But, as I clearly stated before, my desire is to serve the people in Washington to help clean up the mess and make a difference.  It does not matter whether that service is in the Senate or the House of Representatives.  These are unsettling times where the pathway is not always clear.  Unfortunately, the decisions that we make are overly controlled by outside forces.  During the weeks and months ahead, I will continue to conduct my vigorous exploratory campaign.  It is my desire to inform my supporters and colleagues about what may occur in the future.  It is still early in the campaign season and I would ask everyone to be patient and wait until it is clear regarding everyone’s intentions.  Thank you for your consideration and understanding.

Fortunately for Pat, he can also maintain his radio show as long as he’s not a declared candidate, and that message resonates well beyond the confines of the Second Congressional District. It means he can wage at least a somewhat effective statewide campaign while the redistricting process is at work. (Not to mention he’s running ‘from cover’ in either case since he wouldn’t have to stand for election in his Delegate seat until 2014.)

Perhaps the better question, though, is why not make a decision now? Waiting on the results of redistricting does convey that indecisiveness Pat’s critics will feast on. But we can deduce from the message that Pat is running for some federal office. We also know he has a name recognition advantage over most other members of the House of Delegates thanks to both his radio show and work on certain key issues, and can indeed believe that there may be radical changes in the makeup of every one of Maryland’s Congressional districts because the Democrats are running the show and don’t really care about anything but maintaining political power.

So in reading this missive it appears McDonough’s preference would be to run for the Second District seat and he’s using a Senate bid as a fallback option. That may indeed be the case, but, since I like to think an election or two ahead, there’s a scenario which argues instead that he’s going statewide.

Obviously if Pat runs for and wins a U.S. Senate seat, he’s in a good position for the next six years and the country would gain a conservative voice from one of the most unlikely places. But if he takes the shot for Cardin’s Senate seat and loses, well, we all lose. But McDonough still would have built a statewide campaign organization and it could prove useful in 2014 since that election presents the opportunity of an open Governor’s seat. Remember, Pat flirted with the idea in 2010 but chose not to challenge Bob Ehrlich.

(Of course, winning the Governor’s seat after serving in Congress from the Second District worked for Bob, but that was nearly a decade ago – way past a political lifetime in this day and age.)

So McDonough remains a ‘theoretical’ candidate for the U.S. Senate; in reality just three GOP candidates have filed with the FEC (Daniel Bongino, William Capps, and Corrogan Vaughn) while Capps and Rick Hoover are on the ballot at this early stage. It is presumed from other sources that Robert Broadus and Eric Wargotz are in the race as well, although we await a formal announcement from 2010 GOP nominee Wargotz.

In the end we should have between 7 and 10 enter the U.S. Senate race on the Republican side, if past history is a guide. If McDonough does decide to jump in this fall then we’ve reached the lucky seven mark with just a few weeks to go before the filing deadline. Everyone has until January 11 to make up their minds.

Well, I pulled the poll earlier today since it had run its course, and here are the results (drum roll please…):

1. Eric Wargotz, 2,116 votes (44.87%)
2. Daniel Bongino, 1,711 votes (36.28%)
3. William Capps, 831 votes (17.62%)
4. Corrogan Vaughn, 38 votes (0.81%)
5. Robert Broadus, 10 votes (0.21%)
6. Rick Hoover, 9 votes (0.19%)

One person wrote in “Bolton”, who I take to mean John Bolton. I didn’t know he was a Maryland resident.

As I’ve said all along, this was far from a scientific poll because I allowed repeat voting – in fact, I encouraged it. To that end, I did a spreadsheet (printed in .pdf form) which shows how the poll evolved over time as I broke out the numbers by timespan. There you can see where repeat votes were racked up for the various candidates, so it’s easy to tell that someone came in and stacked the poll to help out a particular candidate over a span of time. (It made for some incredible page view numbers, too – thanks!)

Yet I think the numbers aren’t all that far off from reality. Let’s look at a few facts here.

In a ten-person primary race last year, Eric Wargotz received less than 40 percent of the vote. His main competition was a political newcomer who quickly became a TEA Party favorite in Jim Rutledge – together they pulled about 70 percent of the vote, with no one else attaining a double-digit percentage.

This is a six-person race at the moment, and Wargotz has just under 45% in this poll. Realistically, that’s close to his base of Republican support from last year and it’s probably good enough to win. Running in second place? Well, he’s a political newcomer who should be able to count on a lot of support from the TEA Party since he has the backing of another popular fiscal conservative in 2010 gubernatorial hopeful Brian Murphy. Daniel Bongino has 36 percent, which roughly parallels Eric’s nine-point win in 2010.

Too, the chief remaining votegetter is William Capps, who probably wouldn’t poll 18 percent in reality but would likely draw a high single-digit number based on a little name recognition. Since there will likely be more candidates in the mix, his overstated number here would probably erode a bit to a more realistic number among the latecomers who may split about 10 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, the bottom three are probably pretty close to their actual base of support since they are perennial candidates who haven’t shown well before.

My theory in doing this poll as I did is that people who are passionate enough to attempt to rig an internet poll to their chosen candidate’s advantage exist in the same relative number as support in real life. In other words, the person (or persons) who voted continually hundreds of times for Eric Wargotz exist in direct proportion poll-wise to those who would do the same for Bongino, Capps, et. al. so the poll may have some relative validity. (And quite honestly, if it drives a few extra people to my website that’s good for me.)

So I wouldn’t be surprised if the support for these people at this early stage isn’t all that far off the mark. I would say Bongino and Capps may be outperforming reality by five to ten points here, but remember there is no “undecided” in my polling to cloud the picture. Toss that group in and almost everyone would lose a dozen points or so.

Suffice to say that the race can’t be conceded to the guy who has the most name recognition (Eric Wargotz) quite yet. It may turn out to be yet another plurality race won by attrition. The early primary will be to Eric’s advantage, of course, but by no means is he a lock for the nomination.