Since I didn’t do this last week, I have a lot to choose from among what the internet has offered me – an abundance of stuff. Let’s begin with this one, which features the script GM should’ve really followed in its recent commercial.
Now this is a real commercial. If Maryland elected a Secretary of Agriculture I would hope he’d do a commercial half as good.
Speaking of Maryland, Montgomery County guaranteed itself more hard times by enacting a carbon tax. Watch this county councilman call the opponents ‘astroturf.’ But wouldn’t astroturf then be taxed because of its carbon footprint? Doesn’t matter, we’re all going to get it.
Perhaps the next scenario will soon occur in Montgomery County (and probably serve them right.) In the meantime, it’s yet another witty campaign spot from Vermont.
After last Tuesday’s big Kentucky win, Rand Paul was feeling pretty good about himself. Check out this call out.
I’ll say the same thing about Frank Kratovil – please, please, President Obama, come down here to the Lower Shore and campaign for flip-flop Frank. That oughta be a good time.
On a more serious note, one Maryland businesswoman detailed her struggles for a Bob Ehrlich campaign spot.
Just let her do the talking, Bob.
Hey, do you see a pattern here? Must be an election year, huh? Here’s a guy who doesn’t have to worry about that anymore – he can live on his generous pension and endorse Democrats now. Thanks Wayne.
Okay, enough politics. I wanted to find something to crank up so this should fit the bill. 13:1 does ‘Judgement Day’ at a show in Philly.
As I detailed yesterday, Brian Murphy wasn’t pleased with the Maryland GOP taking sides in the race for Governor. Last week it was revealed that the leadership of the Maryland Republican Party that represents the party at the national level allowed the waiver of the Republican National Committee’s Rule 11, giving consent to the Republican National Commitee for providing assistance to Murphy’s opponent Bob Ehrlich as well as First District Congressional candidate Andy Harris prior to the September 14 primary.
Today I got a copy of Murphy’s letter to Audrey Scott, Chair of the MDGOP, and one of the more scathing paragraphs is worth passing along.
The “other” candidate in Maryland’s Republican primary for governor doesn’t mince words when describing his feelings toward the decision to waive a national Republican Party rule and allow the national GOP to inject money into the Maryland governor’s race.
“The national mood is anti-big government, anti-tax and spend, and anti-incumbent. So what does the Maryland GOP do? They back someone who has a record of being pro-big government, pro-taxes and pro-spending. Are they tone deaf? Do they not sense the mood of the country? If there has ever been a time for a fiscal conservative to win in Maryland, this is it.”
Murphy continued, “Maryland needs to get its fiscal house in order, and we can’t afford to let this opportunity slip away. Voters deserve choices. Isn’t that the point of a primary? Ehrlich and I disagree on nearly everything, and all I’m asking for is an open debate on the issues.”
With the consent of three state Republican officials, the Republican National Committee national apparatus has been set loose to benefit two Maryland candidates.
First District Congressional candidate Andy Harris had already drawn national support from the NRCC Young Guns program, but the waiver of a national rule allows pre-primary involvement from the Republican National Committee in his campaign as well as Bob Ehrlich’s, despite the presence of primary opponents in both races.
You know, it’s really hard to be stuck indoors at a convention in a place with a view like this.
Yep, it was a little windy Friday afternoon when I shot that brief video. This was prior to the first of four seminars I attended as the event was billed as a training convention. Now, because of a scheduling conflict I had to miss the Executive Committee meeting but Kim and I did arrive in time to enjoy the hospitality of various candidate suites – in truth, the partying spilled onto the Princess Royale’s pool deck.
One Senate candidate made the most of his presence there, festooning the venue with signage. It began with this creative use of bumper stickers.
Several balconies had Wargotz’s signage, so it was a good thing Eric had a special one by his suite.
Governor Gary Johnson led the state of New Mexico from 1995-2003, winning an election as an outsider who was told he had little chance of winning (it was his first electoral contest.) Here’s Eric and Gary together – it’s one of two pictures I took (the other will likely be on his campaign site sometime soon.)
I’ll come back to Johnson later. In the meantime, it’s worth noting that fellow U.S. Senate hopeful Jim Rutledge also had a presence there, with a table near the registration desk.
Rutledge did come down on Saturday to meet and greet conventiongoers.
But if the MDGOP was anticipating a lot of revenue from table rental, they had to be sorely disappointed. Aside from Rutledge and the debut of Americans for Limited Government as a presence, not much was to be found on the tables.
This table on Friday night showed the undercurrent of competition.
As I mentioned earlier, part of the idea behind this convention was to conduct training for Central Committee members. I sat in on four seminars: voter vault training, new media, treasurer’s training, and a panel discussion led by Audrey Scott and featuring General Assembly members Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio and Senators David Brinkley, Nancy Jacobs, and Allan Kittleman. Of the four that was the most interesting, but I learned something new at each and I suppose that was the intent.
I think I’m going to treat the panel discussion as a separate post because a lot of interesting statements were uttered. So let’s skip to lunch and its two guest speakers.
Being introduced by GOP Chair Audrey Scott, who said “we need Bob back to make this a business-friendly state,” Ehrlich pretty much stuck to his stock speech. Most of us knew that “Maryland has been good to us” and “the last grudge match I had was in middle school.”
To Bob, “progress” in Martin O’Malley’s terms was a higher unemployment rate, 3,000 fewer businesses, increases in sales and business taxes, a so-called “living wage,” and gifts to Big Labor – all in all, a poor business climate is O’Malley’s legacy. “You don’t raise taxes on the producers,” said the former governor.
Annapolis is “never out of excuses,” continued Ehrlich, who also said that for us, jobs are “real” and not a “talking point” as they are for O’Malley. The “worst-kept secret” of a second O’Malley term would be the “monumental tax increase awaiting us.” It’s the “politics of getting over” – getting over the next year or the next election. His biggest disappointment was dealing with the schools in Baltimore (and then-Mayor O’Malley) – he accused the Democrats of not stepping up “because it was inconvenient” for them to. Never mind the kids sentenced to a below-grade education.
Addressing the TEA Party movement – a movement which “is serious” – there’s “no doubt” this “pro-opportunity” group wil help us.
While there’s little doubt that everyone in the room supports Ehrlich against O’Malley, I would’ve liked to hear from another man present – Brian Murphy.
We’re not supposed to endorse candidates pre-primary, but by all appearances the Maryland GOP has placed its lot for better or worse behind Bob Ehrlich. Yes, it can be argued that Murphy has little chance but at least he put his name on the line while someone was dithering about which race to run in – if he would run at all. I think we owed him the opportunity to speak, or else be neutral in the race and find a different keynote speaker.
The other speaker isn’t officially running for anything – at least not yet. While the list of current and former governors perhaps seeking the 2012 GOP presidential nomination is long, should Gary Johnson decide to do so we’ll have a pretty good idea of where he stands thanks to his Our America website alluded to above on Eric Wargotz’s sign.
Johnson related his experience as an entrepreneur and being told he “can’t come from outside politics to be elected” to statewide office. But he succeeded by putting “issues first and politics last.”
Perhaps his most noteworthy achievement in two terms as governor was vetoing 750 bills. He used the example of a bill to mandate pets in a store be exercised 2 hours a day, 3 days a week – who would police such a law?
That streak of libertarian thought extended to issues which were received well, like our lack of fiscal conservatism naturally leading to inflation, the “next shoe to drop” being state pension funds, and noting “I was hoping for free-market reform” on health care.
Other issues, though, may have fallen somewhat flat with those gathered, such as taking a “hard look” at the War on Drugs and “squandering our military might” on Iraq and Afghanistan. Regarding drug laws, Johnson noted that 1.8 million are arrested for drug crimes each year and 90% of that is prohibition-related rather than use-related. Instead, we should look at nations like Holland and Portugal and adopt “harm-reduction strategies.”
Gary was definitely thought-provoking, though, and may fit in as a second-tier participant should he begin the process of seeking the GOP’s highest nomination.
After lunch we got down to brass tacks and began the convention proper with Chair Audrey Scott presiding.
I must say, though, this may have been the absolute worst hall I’ve ever sat in for this sort of gathering.
I truly felt sorry for the guests who had to sit in the back, far away from the stage. You can’t tell by the picture but our group was fairly far back; we sat at the outside corner where the room narrowed.
With those surroundings, even Andy Harris didn’t fire up the troops as he could have in nicer circumstances.
Harris did wax eloquent about “taking America back” and stopping the “systematic dismantling of the American Dream” by the “gang in Washington.” To them, electing Scott Brown was “not (a) loud enough message” because they passed Obamacare anyway.
One big flaw with Obamacare Harris elaborated on was that hospitals were unwilling to make new investments because of the uncertainty. “It’s about time Congress admits its mistake (and) repeals health care,” Andy said. Another red meat comment: “when it comes to taxes, we should be the party of ‘hell no’!”
Checking in with the usual reports were our National Committeewoman, Joyce Lyons Terhes, who opined, “Michael Steele is doing an excellent job,” and that, “America is being dismantled before our very eyes.” National Committeeman Louis Pope added that our national fundraising was “right on target” and “the TEA Party is us.” The Republican National Committee is predicting a 30-60 seat House gain and 29 or 30 governorships after this election.
In her Chairman’s Report, Audrey Scott claimed that the “party was in disarray” when she took over but she’d improved both communication and finances during her brief tenure. The recent town hall meetings had gone well “beyond her wildest expectations” and she revealed that a paid Maryland Democratic Party staffer was following her during the latter stages of the tour, recording her every remark. (There was no Democratic staffer at her Wicomico stop. I’m bummed.)
An exciting upcoming event was the annual Red, White, and Blue Dinner, which will feature Mitt Romney as guest speaker.
Yet I have an editorial comment. What was the problem these big donors had with Jim Pelura? They could have opened up their wallets just as easily then and saved the party a lot of headache. Jim must not have been the fair-haired boy they wanted I guess.
Other than that, the business at hand went more or less routinely. Three of us from Wicomico County and another from Montgomery County objected to the adoption of the rules – in my case I suggested to Audrey beforehand that the “compromise” voting system be voted on separately (as they were last fall) and when they did not I objected. So there’s four people who “get it.”
But since the only resolution was to allow the Teenage Republicans a seat at the Executive Committee table the rules were no big deal. Most disappointing was the Voting Committee – who was charged with studying the issue and suggesting a solution – punting the voting system issue down the road. Their excuse this time was that an outgoing convention shouldn’t dictate rules for the next year. Well then, I guess we should rewrite the bylaws every four years then, shouldn’t we? (Actually we did a major revision this term – we just didn’t resolve the voting issue or properly adopt the worthwhile idea of regional chairs. That’s another issue the powers-that-be will find excuses to ignore for another term.)
Okay, my rant is over. For the first time that I recall, the Young Republicans didn’t have a hospitality suite on Friday night. Instead, they capitalized on current events for this idea to bridge the gap between the convention and dinner.
Speaking of dinner, I wasn’t sure about the speaker but political consultant David Winston turned out to be interesting to a numbers freak like myself.
Some of his findings:
President Bush couldn’t capitalize on the structural advantage the GOP has – we are a center-right country.
Obama’s big misstep was tackling health care and not jobs. Almost 3 times as many respondents to polling cited jobs as the key issue over health care.
Having a high disapproval rating hurts the introduction of issues – if “there’s that guy I don’t like” talking about an issue it turns voters off.
9.7% (the unemployment rate) is “the only number that matters” this cycle.
“The political center does not mean moderates.” On a sliding scale of liberal to conservative, independent voters are far closer to the GOP than they are President Obama.
Finally, our annual awards for 2009 were given out and we were pleasantly surprised!
Charles Carroll Award (Outstanding Republican Man) – Bob Ostrom
Belva Lockwood Award (Outstanding Republican Woman) – Patt Parker
Samuel Chase Award (Outstanding County) – Talbot County
William Paca Award (Outstanding Republican Youth) – Matt Teffeau
Grassroots Activist of the Year – Katie James
Aris Allen Award (Outstanding Voter Registration Effort) – Wicomico County
Obviously we won one award and as I recall we nominated Matt for his award for his work as head of the Salisbury University College Republicans. Here are the award winners with Chair Audrey Scott.
So I don’t have a completely bitter taste in my mouth for the event. It just looks like the work won’t stop on November 2nd – when I’m reelected to the Central Committee and after we beat the Democrats like a rented mule it will be time to push for much-needed reform for the MDGOP.
After some of the craziness of March’s meeting, things returned to a fairly normal pace and routine this month.
We did the Lord’s Prayer and Pledge of Allegiance, then the minutes of both February and March were read. Following that, it was revealed that our efforts at the Salisbury Festival only netted a meager profit thanks to the “small crowd,” with the lack of steamed corn on the cob also making an impact.
A series of reports followed, beginning with the Lower Shore Young Republicans presented by Dustin Mills. Several of their members braved the poor weather to help at the Salisbury Festival and they were putting the “final touches” on the state convention, where they expected somewhere between 125 and 150 to attend.
The LSYR food drive will occur May 8th at three of the four Salisbury area Food Lion stores – confirmed are the Nanticoke Road and Snow Hill Road locations, with the other being either Tilghman Road or Fruitland.
Dustin and I split the Central Committee report; he remarked on the upcoming GOP Spring Convention in Ocean City and I on the success of the Lincoln Day Dinner with Bob Ehrlich.
We then had a number of campaign updates.
Ed Nelson commented on the Salisbury stop on Andy’s bus tour on Friday. While 30 people showed up on an early Friday morning, Nelson said the candidate was “satisfied” with the press coverage as his campaign is “gelling together.”
Dustin Mills (again) referenced the Michael James campaign for State Senate, telling us Michael was “extremely active” compared to his 2006 effort and lauding the “positive reception” Michael received at the Salisbury Festival.
Don Coffin spoke up and announced he was holding a fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidate Jim Rutledge on Saturday, May 22 at his farm. A recent fundraiser for Rutledge in Salisbury raised about $3,000 so there’s support here on the Eastern Shore for the candidate.
Bonnie Luna spoke on behalf of Bob Ehrlich’s campaign, recounting his kick off tour which stopped in Parsonsburg and Ocean City.
Bob McCarroll also gave us an update on his bid for office.
In other news, Dustin Mills pointed out some of the numbers behind the recent Rasmussen Poll on Maryland’s race for governor. We know that Ehrlich trails O’Malley 44-47 in his race, but Maryland is a state which gives President Obama more support than the average state and is more supportive of Obamacare. Yet Martin O’Malley has a 22 strongly approve/29 strongly disapprove, or a factor of (-7) compared to a national average for President Obama running in the negative teens. But tellingly, about half of Free Staters have a “throw the bums out” mentality when it comes to their own delegate.
We also learned that the AFP meeting Wednesday may have Delegate candidate Mike McDermott as a speaker but Michael James had to drop out – he’ll have a surrogate for the meeting.
The bulk of the meeting’s discussion centered on the club’s financial plan for the upcoming election, which eventually passed without objection. Once we finalize the slate of candidates come September the WCRC can be a huge help to local Republican candidates.
Our next meeting is May 24 and still on the docket despite her change in office sought is Carmen Amedori.
It’s not the biggest of places, but if you want to have a farm as a backdrop former Secretary of Agriculture Lewis Riley’s Parsonsburg farm is the place to be. Governor Ehrlich’s campaign kickoff stopped there this morning and I have pictures, text, plus a special surprise at the end.
Most of this will be in pictorial form. To begin, let me point out it was a little muddy on the farm this morning.
The signs were already made up, though. Think this is a winning campaign issue?
People were in good spirits despite the weather. Luckily there was a place to get out of the rain.
Needless to say, a host of local GOP candidates and officeholders were about. Here’s District 38 Senate candidate Michael James.
They also flanked Wicomico County Councilman Joe Holloway, who served as master of ceremonies for the event.
District 38B candidate Mike McDermott also graced the podium with brief remarks.
McDermott also played on the fiscal theme, calling Ehrlich one who “believes in actually lowering taxes.” The important number to him was 71, as in 71 of 141 seats in the General Assembly. Ending a century and a half of Democratic control could be a tall order, though.
In his introduction, Lewis Riley described Bob Ehrlich as one who’s knowledgeable on Maryland’s needs and wants. While that was being said, Ehrlich struck a thoughtful pose.
I’m going to come back to what Bob Ehrlich said shortly, but afterward many of those there wanted a piece of him (figuratively, of course.)
I’m not sure why both local television stations weren’t there (perhaps the other one was awaiting the Ocean City or Easton stop) but Channel 47 covered the Parsonsburg event.
I liked this shot too, and throw it in just because.
Now, as to what Governor Ehrlich said – you can hear for yourself. I took video of his remarks.
In case you’re wondering, there’s probably about 50 to 75 people in the background behind me. The Channel 47 camera was to my right.
Afterward, I asked him about the effect lowering sales tax would have. Since the sales tax annually brings in about $3.7 billion according to the Comptroller’s office, taking 1/6 of it would be about $600 million. How would the gap be filled?
Bob explained to me that mine was a static analysis (true) and that the increased economic activity lowering the tax would create would fill in part of the gap (also a good presumption.) In addition, with slots coming online that revenue will enable the state to lower our tax burden in that manner. (Bob also brought up the what-if scenario of had slots passed in 2003.) All in all, it was a good answer and about what I expected.
With that, Ehrlich continued on to stops in Ocean City and Easton as he continued his statewide announcement tour. This is probably the most we’ll see of him because the battle is likely going to be for the suburban voters across the bay and let’s face it – Ehrlich should carry the Eastern Shore handily. (If not, he’ll be lucky to come within 15 points of Martin O’Malley.)
So…is this a suitable temporary replacement for Friday Night Videos?
In the political world oftentimes a primary election has a prohibitive favorite who, tacitly or not, has the support of party brass. Here in Maryland a recent example on the Republican side was Michael Steele’s U.S. Senate run in 2006, where Steele won 87% of the vote against nine opponents because the GOP establishment was firmly behind him. While other candidates may have been more appealing on the issues, Steele locked up most of the donors through the connections being a party insider provided.
As a party chair who just recently stepped down, Jim Pelura could be considered part of the Maryland Republican Party establishment. But as publishedreports indicated yesterday, Pelura has chosen to support upstart Brian Murphy for the GOP nomination rather than Bob Ehrlich. Pelura cited the need for “new blood” as part of the reason for his support.
When we came up with the idea to have Bob Ehrlich as our speaker, our original thought was that we would catch him just after a January announcement of his candidacy. But Mother Nature put the kibosh on our original February 6th date and as it turns out this may have been the ex-governor’s last public appearance before he officially declares he’s running again.
So it’s needless to say we had a pretty packed house for the event with the only empty spots being on a few side tables – over 150 were in attendance. They were treated to a great display of patriotism and politics, as always kicked off by our 16th President. He brought a few dinner guests this year.
One thing I didn’t realize was that this President was a TEA Party activist.
The evening’s featured speaker was introduced by his better half Kendel, who complained that Bob wasn’t much help around the house – thus “he needed an important job again.”
The former governor noted that over the last year he’d seen a number of “tired, angry, frustrated people” who were now getting involved in the political process; where he’d seen 150 at Republican club meetings before now he was seeing 250 and most of them were new faces.
Bob listed a number of Maryland assets as one side of a ledger in his remarks, with his most savage criticism of the liabilities directed at General Assembly Democrats. He noted that when he was first elected to the General Assembly in 1986 he was one of just 16 Republicans, yet the Democrats there were “in balance” because many were business owners and otherwise worked in the real world. Back then they weren’t so “anti-success.”
Now, though, Republicans “have to be relevant…we have to count.” By getting five additional Senate seats the GOP could sustain vetoes, and instead of being shut out of leadership discussions Minority Leader Allan Kittleman would be a necessary part of the process.
Ehrlich blasted the majority party for a number of measures they’ve passed, stating “no one forced them to do this stuff.” For example, they passed the recommendations of the Thornton Commission without a funding source and placed the fourth highest personal tax burden in the country on Maryland residents – “we tell wealth to leave the state” by enacting such policies.
Yet Republicans couldn’t just count on savaging Democrats to win because they have to work with those newly politically involved people. “The TEA Party people are free agents,” noted Ehrlich, and Republicans “just have to perform” once they assume some responsibility.
The former Governor didn’t leave the dais when he was through; we had one more task for him to perform. He helped present the award to our Republican of the Year.
Marc Kilmer was his usual humble self, simply stating that his leadership task is to “just get the job done.” As president of the Wicomico County Republican Club and Young Republican member he does just that. (He also is a regular commenter here.)
We next heard from several area elected officials, beginning with District 37 Senator Rich Colburn. He refused to apologize for his characterization of the Waterkeeper Alliance as “green on the outside and red on the inside,” blasting the group for being anti-agriculture and telling us that larger environmental fees simply can’t be handled by local farmers.
Andy Harris was next, speaking as both a State Senator and Congressional candidate.
Harris described the excitement in the district as “amazing” and noted that the most important vote Frank Kratovil made in his tenure was to elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. This race, he said, comes down to a choice between Nancy Pelosi or John Boehner.
Two of the eight announced Republican U.S. Senate candidates were in attendance, with both being gracious enough to pose for me post-event.
During her remarks, Carmen Amedori gave a brief rundown of her background and said it was time to send Barbara Mikulski home to retirement. Eric Wargotz echoed the sentiment but also said, “I believe in a better…healthier America” instead of the Constitution being treated like a “doormat.”
Turning to more local candidates, Michael James, seeking the District 38 Maryland Senate seat, reminded the audience that, “I have created jobs” as a businessman. He described his approach if elected as “proactive, not reactive” and recounted that he only lost in a 2006 bid for Delegate by a very slim margin.
District 38B Delegate candidate Mike McDermott came prepared.
McDermott joked that, along with Michael James, “we need a balance of Mikes” in the General Assembly to counter House leader Mike Busch and Senate head Mike Miller. McDermott hammered Governor O’Malley for “never (meeting) a family farm he didn’t want to shut down” and pronounced the GOP’s eventual goal as “71” – that being the number of seats to gain a majority in the General Assembly.
Pinch-hitting for candidate for Governor Brian Murphy (home awaiting the birth of his fourth child), Meghan Mueller briefly ran down Brian’s resume as business owner and Eastern Shore native. She did well being placed in the tough spot of having an opponent be featured speaker.
Local County Council candidate Dave Goslee, Jr. told those gathered President Obama made him politically active. He’s running against Democrat Sheree Sample-Hughes for the District 1 seat.
An optimistic Audrey Scott recounted some of her accomplishments and reminded us that she would be back here Monday evening for a townhall meeting in the Danang Room of the Wicomico County Youth and Civic Center. That’s where I’ll be too.
Much of the crowd stuck around after Scott finished to mingle and ponder the thoughts of electoral success in November. Fellow blogger Julie Brewington was there and had a few pictures as well.
Bob Ehrlich surprised a group in Pikesville this morning by telling a questioner at a Chamber of Commerce breakfast that a Senate run against Barbara Mikulski was still “in the mix.”
That news may come as a shock should Ehrlich follow through with a Senate campaign, especially to a group of eleven people: the seven candidates who are already running for the Republican nomination to unseat the four-term incumbent (leading the way are Carmen Amedori, Jim Rutledge, and Eric Wargotz), the three men who explored but dropped out of the GOP race for governor (Mike Pappas, Larry Hogan, and Delegate Pat McDonough), and Brian Murphy, who might have the GOP nod handed to him as the only other active candidate seeking the Republican nomination for governor.
As of today, we have a little under eight months before presumptive Democrat nominee (and incumbent governor) Martin O’Malley tangles with assumed Republican choice (and former governor) Bob Ehrlich. Both face primary challengers but it’s likely these two will be the guys come November.
I noted the other day that Ehrlich is closing the gap and this fact was not lost on the Rothenburg Political Report either. According to them, O’Malley is no longer “safe” but holds a “narrow advantage.”
Of course, the Maryland GOP is happy at the prospect, as party Chair Audrey Scott noted:
Governor O’Malley should be very concerned. Maryland voters are rejecting his agenda of high taxes, high spending and growing our state’s government… Marylanders are hurting under the failed leadership of Governor O’Malley, who has proven to be only accountable to party bosses and big wigs, not Maryland families. The primary responsibility of an elected official is to listen to their constituency. Governor O’Malley is deaf to the cries and concerns of Maryland citizens who are hurting from his out-of-control fiscal policies. Since Governor O’Malley has taken office nearly 100,000 Marylanders have lost their jobs and unemployment has reached a 26 year high, clearly he is not listening to what the people of Maryland need.”
In response, the Democrats are pooh-poohing Ehrlich’s chances. Noted Isaac Salazar on The OnLine State:
On page 19 of the (leaked to Politico) RNC document Steele and the RNC go through their targets in the 2010 gubernatorial elections. They seem confident about a lot of states – everything from Maine to New Mexico, Oregon to Tennessee, Michigan to Oklahoma, Wyoming to Ohio… OK, you get our point.
Noticeably absent… Maryland. In fact, Maryland was one of only three Democratic-held states the RNC is NOT targeting (New Hampshire and Arkansas being the other two).
With Bob Ehrlich an all but announced candidate for Governor, you would think he merits at least a mention? I mean, he is a former Governor, right?
It’s noteworthy this Salazar piece came out the day before Rothenburg’s analysis, and perhaps this could eventually change the RNC’s thinking. (It’s also funny the Democrats are worried about Michigan and Ohio – aren’t those incumbent Democrats doing a bang-up job on their state economies?)
The long-term horse race aspect is certainly more entertaining in a race that is pretty much cut-and-dried like Ehrlich vs. O’Malley than a divided one where several Republicans vie for a chance to become what conventional wisdom assumes will be cannon fodder for Barbara Mikulski. (Then again, conventional wisdom pretty much figured Scott Brown would never win the “Kennedy seat” either.)
So, newspapers need something to sell copies and bloggers need things to write about. While it’s good the experts feel we have a competitive race for governor, some of the undercards which are just as important (like a Jim Mathias trying to flip a longtime GOP seat to the D’s or the prospect his Delegate seat will go Republican) get all but ignored.
In those cases, less hype may make a better race. I’m looking forward to some big GOP wins come November.
A Rasmussen poll taken late last month shows former Governor Bob Ehrlich within striking distance of Martin O’Malley. The likely Republican nominee now trails by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent.
Neither candidate is disliked by voters, though, as both candidates’ personal favorability ratings lie in the mid-50’s (O’Malley 54, Ehrlich 55.)
On job approval, though, Governor O’Malley is at 53 percent. While that’s an improvement over his September numbers in a Gonzales Research survey, looking deeper into the poll suggests his support is relatively tepid – strong disapproves lead strong approves 23-18. However, previous Gonzales data had saddled O’Malley with a sub-50 approval rating since March 2007 so the spin machine must finally be working in his favor.
It’s also worthy of note, though, that O’Malley’s numbers were at the lowest immediately after the tax increases of the 2007 Special Session he called took effect in 2008. At that point he was 10 to 11 points underwater on approval/disapproval. That’s also why I believe any tax increase comes immediately after he’s safely re-elected.
By comparison, President Obama has a 59% approval rating in Maryland with strong approves leading 38-32 over strong disapproves. Obviously Obama is quite the polarizing figure, even here.
In September, the Gonzales poll showed O’Malley leading 49-38 over Ehrlich, but O’Malley’s approval rating was only 48 percent. Oddly, that poll had both candidates’ personal approval numbers much lower (O’Malley 47, Ehrlich 42) so it appears time has burnished the perception of both gentlemen.
Obviously the poll which counts will be the one taken November 2nd, but pocketbook issues might have a way of changing the snapshots in time we see between now and then. Truly there is no other issue of importance in this race.
