March 2014 – Page 2

Reversing the process

I got an interesting e-mail the other day – not necessarily for the content, but who it was from and what it may represent.

After the 2012 Republican primary campaign wrapped up, a number of the also-rans decided to form political groups or super PACs to keep their names out there, continue compiling e-mail lists, and – most importantly – keep the money coming in. Two good examples are Rick Santorum’s Patriot Voices group he formed shortly after withdrawing and the American Legacy PAC Newt Gingrich is wrapped up in.

But as we begin to inch toward the 2016 campaign, the Republican field is (hopefully) looking beyond the retreads from past elections, and the potential first-time candidates are numerous. Sure, you have your share of governors like, for example, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, and Scott Walker, along with a number of those already in Washington like Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, who has began the slog by winning a couple key straw polls.

Yet there’s always something about a campaign: the issues you may think will be the hot-button issues a couple years in advance rarely turn out to be; heck, even six months is a political lifetime. But Barack Obama’s foreign policy weaknesses, which were successfully swept under the rug for 2012, seem to be much more prominent of late. It’s interesting how the race to enroll people by the March 31 deadline for Obamacare and the entirety of the debacle itself still hasn’t quite been able to succeed in pushing the Russia/Crimea/Ukraine situation off the front pages, no matter how hard the Obama admnistration tries to mash that “reset” button.

So yesterday, thanks to the always-growing number of people who seem to have my e-mail address on file, I found out that former Ambassador John Bolton created a PAC last year. He was looking for donations, of course, but one has to ask whether the time has arrived for a foreign policy hawk to assume the Commander-in-Chief’s position? I can’t answer the question, of course, but it’s relevant to ask because Bolton drew 3% of the vote at the Northeast Republican Leadership Conference. Granted, that’s not in the league of the aforementioned Paul, Christie, et. al. but it’s three times better than Martin O’Malley is doing in Iowa and everyone knows MOM’s gunning for the White House sooner or later. Like O’Malley, Bolton is even a Maryland native.

Maybe what got me to thinking Bolton may make a run is the PAC website. Its look and feel gives me the impression that it’s a couple little tweaks from being the John Bolton for President website. Instead of featuring candidates the PAC may be helping, it’s focused completely on Bolton himself – not a bad thing, but why have the pretense?

At the risk of being called a neocon, I don’t think it would be a bad thing for Bolton to make a run and create a referendum on our foreign policy. Obviously John was there during the George W. Bush years when we were hip-deep in Iraq and Afghanistan, but unfortunately it’s beginning to appear all that blood and treasure was for naught because we left before the job was (or will be) done. In both cases, we stopped short of annihilating the enemy with overwhelming force as we did in World War II. (Arguably, this is true of all our conflicts in the post-atomic era – well, maybe Grenada turned out pretty good.)

Unfortunately, those who have opposed us since the Vietnam era have learned that our resolve is only as good as the news cycle allows it to be. One would think after 9/11 we would see the Long War through but it doesn’t appear our current Commander-in-Chief is interested in victory or even rules of engagement which would allow the possibility because someone here may be offended. In the interim, much damage has been done to both our military and our national psyche, and Hillary Clinton won’t be the right person to fix it – for one thing, she wouldn’t hire John Bolton, PAC or no PAC.

A regional juxtaposition

In looking at the speaking itinerary for an upcoming event, I think the Worcester County GOP has put together an interesting pairing for its upcoming Lincoln Day Dinner on April 5th at Lighthouse Sound just outside Ocean City. (The restaurant has a Bishopville address, but is located on St. Martin’s Neck Road just off Route 90.)

The two speakers listed would seemingly represent the establishment vs. the pro-liberty group of the GOP, but all is not what it seems.

National RNC Co-Chair Sharon Day is listed as the primary speaker, and she is considered by our National Committeewoman Nicolee Ambrose to be her mentor. But despite Day’s lofty status at the RNC, there was one action which earned the respect of grassroots activists everywhere. From the Potomac TEA Party Report:

Remember the controversy in the spring of 2009 about whether Michael Steele’s RNC would endorse Charlie Crist for the Florida US Senate seat when conservative Marco Rubio was the up and coming challenger in the Florida Republican primary. Sharon Day was the one hold out of the three national committeemen for Florida who refused to sign the Rule 11 waiver letter! She said NO! She said that the voters should choose their candidate in the primary and not have it decided by Michael Steele and the boys in Washington!

If only one of Maryland’s esteemed representatives at the national level at the time had that sort of foresight! There are still some hard feelings about how Rule 11 was handled in the 2010 election cycle, and it could all have been avoided.

On top of that, the second speaker is Patrick McGrady, Chairman of the Maryland Liberty PAC. They are no stranger to controversy either, as the Liberty PAC is vocal on a number of issues. Nor is he foreign to this site.

Perhaps the controversy closest to the heart of the Worcester County faithful is the HB1513 debacle – not that it would directly affect Worcester County, but the principle of General Assembly members inserting themselves into the Central Committee in that way is probably just as troubling to them as it is to many other such groups around the state. At this time, Worcester has just one resident Republican delegate (Mike McDermott) but could potentially have two after November – Mary Beth Carozza is running in the newly-created District 38C while Somerset-based Delegate Charles Otto had the southern portion of the county added to his District 38A during redistricting in a brazen effort to eliminate the pesky Delegate McDermott; instead, McDermott is running for the Maryland Senate.

Obviously, though, there are some who consider McGrady’s group bomb-throwers who add nothing to the conversation; thus, it will be interesting to see what he has to say at the Bishopville event.

A week later on April 12, Wicomico County will have its own Lincoln Day Dinner. We’re inviting the four gubernatorial candidates to speak before our gathering, and there just might be some other announcements there as well. Stay tuned.

The uninvited

For the last two CPACs, Bretbart News has hosted a gathering called “The Uninvited”, a meeting where those who speak to subjects taboo to the main conference meet. In 2013, they met in a side conference area well away from many of the main events and this year they left the Gaylord National Resort and Conference Center entirely, choosing the nearby Westin Hotel instead.

I bring this up not because I want to extend CPAC coverage, but it was the immediate thought I had after reading a piece by Jeff Quinton last night about a Larry Hogan-sponsored Maryland blogger gathering. Indeed, when asked by Quinton a few days ago I said I hadn’t heard about such a meeting so presumably I wasn’t invited – not that 4:30 on a Wednesday afternoon in Annapolis generally works for me anyway.

But I thought a little compare and contrast was in order, perhaps to help make Quinton’s overall point.

About 2 1/2 years ago, well before he officially announced but at a time when the wheels for a 2014 run were already in motion, David Craig gathered a number of prominent bloggers at the time (including a couple of the Red Maryland guys) for an informal Friday evening meeting in Annapolis.

But it didn’t stop there. Craig also made sure I was aware of the announcement tour stop in Salisbury and his staff arranged for me to have some time for an interview before they left. Insofar as I know, David has been fair to most of the bloggers – no complaints.

And while I haven’t had similar face time with either Ron George or Charles Lollar, Ron has taken care to call me or provide comment for my site on several occasions. I’ve also heard from members of Lollar’s staff regarding things going on in the new media world. On the other hand, it’s been a long time since I’ve spoken to Larry Hogan, but then I don’t initiate the conversation either. There was a point where I was trying to get him for the most recent Ten Questions series of interviews I did last year, but we couldn’t get a time coordinated and I eventually abandoned the effort.

Now I’m presuming the Hogan event would be patterned on the initial Craig soiree, and since there were about 10 or 11 total people there perhaps only six to eight bloggers were invited – figure four from Red Maryland, Jackie Wellfonder, and perhaps the folks from the Sun and Post and pretty soon you have a crowded table. But if a candidate really wanted to do it right, he or she would have 3 or 4 similar events around the state.

Then again, what do I know? In the scheme of things I’m just a blogger whose main complaint about the Hogan campaign isn’t lack of access but lack of detail, as in his plans for governance should he be fortunate enough to win. Maybe I’m just one voter but I have a lot of pet issues, so that’s why I want to know.

So I hope my cohorts have a good time this afternoon. I won’t be there, particularly since I’ll probably still be hard at work doing my outside job in the real world. But I’m sure I’ll hear about it from someone.

Pointing out and planning solutions

In life there is a difference between saying and doing. In this case neither protagonist, unfortunately, is in a position where they can do much more than talk and advocate but it is interesting to see what the two men in question have to say about a paticular situation.

First I’ll point out the talker:

More and more of our friends and neighbors are unemployed and our state economy remains stalled. Clearly, the economic policies of Martin O’Malley and Anthony Brown have failed, and it’s time for new leadership and a new direction in Annapolis.

The O’Malley/Brown Administration continues to drive taxpayers and job creators from Maryland and into the arms of better run, lower cost states.

Those were the words of gubernatiorial candidate Larry Hogan, whose campaign went on to point out that 9,800 Marylanders were furloughed in January and the state endured its worst year of job creation since the recession ended in 2009. (At least for some parts of the state, the question of whether we are back in one is open for debate.)

I will give some credit to Larry for beginning to round out a platform which doesn’t simply bash the incumbent and his heir apparent for tax increases or cite his group’s social media prowess:

Hogan, a business leader and former Maryland state cabinet secretary, favors a pro-growth agenda that combines reigning (sic) in Annapolis spending, jump starting the economy by cutting taxes on workers and their employers, and aggressively courting larger employers which in recent years have left Maryland for Virginia and other states.

We’re still a little vague as to specifics, but the ideas are mostly right out of the conservative playbook and certainly won’t hurt. I’m ever-so-slightly leery of the “cutting taxes on workers and their employers” line because that suggests only a targeted tax cut rather than the flattening (or complete elimination) of rates we need, but we’ll see where Larry goes with this one.

On the other hand – and I really wish he had said it a month ago, because it would have went perfectly with this post – David Craig has a grand idea:

Harford County Executive and Maryland Governor Candidate David Craig called on incumbent Governor Martin O’Malley to push the Obama Administration to complete a final regulatory review to enable a facility in southern Maryland to export liquefied natural gas. The issue takes on greater urgency as the Ukraine and several European countries seek long-term solutions to reduce dependence on Russian energy exports.

“Now is not the time for dithering and red tape,” said Craig. “Maryland is on the verge of being only the second state in the country to export liquefied natural gas and our proximity to the Marcellus Shale, and the Atlantic Ocean and existing infrastructure gives us a competitive advantage that nobody else has. Maryland can attract thousands of energy sector jobs and help assert U.S. influence in the crisis in the Ukraine. But we must act now.”

Ambassadors to the U.S. from Hungary, Poland and the Czech and Slovak republics wrote House Speaker John Boehner last week that U.S. “natural gas would be much welcome in Central and Eastern Europe, and Congressional action to expedite [liquefied natural gas] exports to America’s allies would come at a critically important time for the region.”

The U.S. Department of Energy has approved just six export licenses for LNG projects, including Cove Point, since 2011. Dominion Resources-owned Cove Point, in Lusby, MD, is one of about 20 U.S. projects that want to export LNG. Of those, only one, in Louisiana, has full federal permitting.

Delays in Maryland are coming on multiple fronts. Political support among the O’Malley-Brown Administration is non-existent. Gubernatorial candidate and legislator Heather Mizeur is leading the charge in outright opposition to the project, while Lt. Gov. and front-runner candidate Anthony Brown promotes “environmental justice,” a left-wing social movement that attempts to stifle energy exploration wherever politically-favored constituencies may object. The other democratic gubernatorial candidate, the current Attorney General, is opposed to timely approval of the project. Apart from general statements about the importance of developing jobs and traditional forms of energy, GOP primary candidates for Governor have heretofore not yet articulated positions on the issue. (Links added.)

Given my interest in energy-related issues, I can’t believe I missed that originally – the release has been out about a week – but I’m glad David Craig is coming out on the right side of this issue. As I pointed out last month, Dominion Resources, the operator of the Cove Point facility, estimated that 4,000 construction jobs and 14,600 permanent positions could be created through this $3.5 billion investment. Those could be 14,600 people paying taxes and investing in our communities rather than wondering what comes next after the unemployment runs out or making plans to escape Maryland for greener pastures like Virginia, the Carolinas, Florida, or Texas. Democrats often talk about making “investments” with our tax dollars, well, here’s an investment that the private sector is willing to make and government is mad because they can’t control who receives it. Let’s throw them a pity party: awwwwwwww….

Running mate Jeannie Haddaway made another good point in that statement:

Instead of picking winners and losers and subsidizing the most expensive options such as wind energy, we should be taking advantage of our existing resources and diversifying in a way that is meaningful to our economy and to job creation.

The choice is clear, the opportunity is now.

I look at it this way: if there were a market for wind energy, we would already have plenty of infrastructure out there. But the fact we have to subsidize its meager presence and carve out market share for it tells me wind is an economic loser overall. Just like solar energy, it’s only as reliable as atmospheric conditions allow it to be. And while solar and wind are considered “green” energy, the birds being cooked or bats being exterminated might beg to differ.

So we can exacerbate the unemployment problem or we can put the people in place to help create jobs. It’s your choice, Maryland.

Mooney rising

If I didn’t give enough attention to the former Senator-turned-party-chair-turned-Congressional candidate (twice) I think I will now. But at the intersection of familiar former radio personalities from my hometown and party chairs who were my second or third choice for the job, along comes this podcast from Mark Standriff and the Tea Party Express, telling me, “This candidate is a movement conservative.”

In this week’s “On the Campaign Trail” podcast, we are joined by Alex Mooney. Alex discusses his campaign for the U.S. Congress in West Virginia’s 2nd District where he hopes to replace the seat vacated by Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

Alex Mooney is exactly the kind of Constitutional conservative that will bring the voice of the working class to Washington, D.C. He is a proven conservative champion who will never back down in the face of President Obama’s war on coal and will stand strong against the EPA’s radical anti-coal agenda.

Alex talks about his experience as a Maryland state senator and how it compares to his current campaign, as well as Obamacare, Obama’s war on coal, the recent debt ceiling deal, and states rights.

As I’ve pointed out in the past, Mooney had a very conservative voting record while he was in the Maryland Senate, and for want of 1,045 votes would probably either be running again for State Senate in Maryland, or more likely trying again for a Congressional seat from our Sixth District. (He also could have pulled an E.J. Pipkin and resigned mid-term to do what he’s doing now.) In any case, the carpetbagging aspect of Mooney’s run was ignored in Standriff’s line of questioning, which is too bad. I think if Mark were still doing the radio show it may have come up.

All this leads me to ponder whether the TEA Party Express will be helping Maryland candidates like Dan Bongino, who perhaps could have used it in his last run. While the TPX has done eight national bus tours and a handful of regional ones, Maryland is one of just five states to have never drawn a stop. (For obvious reasons, Alaska and Hawaii are two of the others, as are Vermont and Idaho.) That may not be in the cards anymore, as the TPX hasn’t done a bus tour since 2012, but it would be nice to see some support.

Apparently Andy Harris likes the guy, though. And why shouldn’t he? They served together in the Maryland Senate for the same three terms, and where Mooney had the second most conservative voting record, Harris was number one.

Another stroke of luck (and it’s not Irish)

Because of the snow, it’s sort of a slow news day today. So I was looking for something interesting to comment on and found out that the practice of fracking can now retire, as it’s reached the ripe old age of 65. From Energy Tomorrow:

We celebrate the first commercial use of hydraulic fracturing 65 years ago on March 17, 1949, conducted by Halliburton in Stephens County, Okla., and Archer County, Texas. But the roots of the fracking story stretch back to the 1860s. In a 2010 article for the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT), NSI Technologies’ Carl Montgomery and Michael Smith write that energy pioneers experimented with oil well “shooting” that would “rubblize” oil-bearing rock to increase flows. Various methodologies were used to fracture rock formations over the years until Stanolind Oil, a division of Standard Oil of Indiana, conducted the first experimental “hydrafrac” in 1947 in Kansas. It involved pumping fluid carrying “propping agents” at high pressure into a well to create fractures that could be held open to free oil and natural gas in the rock.

People have freaked out over this technology over the last half-decade since the oil and natural gas industry embraced it to bring new life to old fields as well as other places where energy exploration was previously deemed economically unworthy due to quantities thought not to be worth the trouble. Yet the root technology was decades old; the confluence of evolving technique with the increase in oil prices to a point where fracking could be cost-effective gave the impetus to the industry. Truthfully, when oil was $15 a barrel and being pumped like crazy in the Middle East a couple decades ago, there wasn’t much demand for domestic supplies.

On the other hand, natural gas that ran about $4 per thousand cubic feet in 1981 only costs about $9 per thousand cubic feet now (although seasonal fluctuations are more severe.) Since that’s not far off the increased cost of living from then to now, this technology has enabled the natural gas market to hold serve despite increased demand from electricity generation, which receives a much better rate than the residential figures I cited. Granted, the recent surge began around the time when natural gas for residential use hit its all-time peak of $20.77 per thousand cubic feet in the summer of 2008, but opening up export markets can make additional fields profitable while stabilizing prices.

Now there is an element of truth to the argument naysayers in the manufacturing and chemical industries make about the potential that exporting LNG to other countries would increase prices here, although I doubt they would triple as claimed. But let’s explore once again the alternative scenario, one which I alluded to a couple paragraphs back.

Oil companies were laying people off and shutting down wells when prices were $15 to $20 a barrel because there was no way to run many of the old wells profitably. Some seem to forget that entrepreneurs go into business to make a profit, so they can make a living. Just like Staples is lopping off a couple hundred of its lagging retail performers, these companies idled wells which were losing money. In one respect it was great because gasoline went back under a dollar per gallon (remember that?) but that was a short-lived phenomenon which ended about the time of the first Gulf War – meanwhile, it took several more years for the oil industry to recover. Like it or not, that’s a vital cog of the American economy just like automakers and other manufacturers, who can use the incentive of energy which is reliable and still relatively inexpensive to create jobs.

So the ideal this time would be to maintain a fairly steady and predictable price while expanding the supply and maintaining those wells which are in operation so they stay economically viable. But if it weren’t for fracking, we would be in the situation of having to import a greater and greater share of our energy, a policy which would quickly drive up prices and perhaps exacerbate our national economic slowdown to a recessionary point once again. A modest increase in energy prices would be a small price to pay for the creation of thousands of jobs with private-sector investment – and who knows, maybe the predicted price increase won’t come. But I’ll bet the jobs would.

Much ado about HB1513

Controversy is still swirling about a proposed bill that is all but universally despised by Republican Central Committee members and the state party itself, with one local member alluding to a new twist in the saga.

Scott Delong, who is a member of the Harford County Republican Central Committee, sent out a lengthy e-mail yesterday to fellow Central Committee members detailing his opposition to the move. While this bill has remained bottled up in the Rules and Executive Nominations Committee of the House of Delegates due to its late introduction, a committee where no further meetings are planned for this session, Delong alleges that sponsor Delegates Rick Impallaria. Pat McDonough, and Kathy Szeliga are trying to petition the bill to the floor.

Assuming this is indeed the case, it’s worth pointing out that petitioning is a rarely-used alternative to the standard committee process, but while the GOP is seemingly afraid to use this procedure to move bills along which have merit, such as repeals to onerous legislation like the Septic Bill or so-called Firearm Safety Act, these members are apparently embracing this manuever to promote a bill harmful to the state GOP. It wouldn’t surprise me to see mostly Democrats sign this petition just as a way of dividing their opposition prior to an important election.

Delong also comments on the responses from Delegates Szeliga and Impallaria in links from his e-mail. It seems that the good Delegates have some concerns about the way things have operated in the past, which is fine. So why wait until after the filing deadline to put this bill in the hopper if this has been a concern? Amazingly, the 12 positions on the Harford County Republican Central Committee have attracted a total of 32 aspirants – only the far larger counties of Baltimore and Montgomery have drawn more for their positions, but many more will be elected from those jurisdictions.

Again, the biggest problem I have with this proposal is that it’s none of the Delegates’ business who sits on the Central Committee, aside from the vote they cast in that election. Moreover, certain people who are co-sponsors of this bill don’t even have that right because they don’t live in Harford County – neither McDonough nor Szeliga live there, as both come from Baltimore County. To use Wicomico County as an example, there could be four Republicans in our county delegation but potentially only one actually living in the county. And because all of Harford’s (and Wicomico’s, for that matter) members are elected at-large, would it be fair for someone for whom only some of those who live in the county cast a vote to have the power to represent an entire county in this manner?

Let’s hope the bill remains buried in committee. I also call on the Delegates to abandon any effort to petition this to the floor, as it is simply a divisive and unacceptable abuse of power to follow through with this bill.

monoblogue music: “Turn the People” by Monks of Mellonwah

The Australian band's newest release came out March 7.

Coming from Australia, the band Monks of Mellonwah may not be a household name in the United States, but a solid debut release may help them gain popularity on this side of the Pacific. They’re promising a U.S. tour to back their new album, “Turn the People.”

But this newest release serves as somewhat of a compilation, as the 13 tracks were all released previously as part of three separate EPs: “Ghost Stories” came out last June, “Afraid to Die” in October, and “Pulse” in January. Adding to this element is the album’s production by two different people: several tracks were produced by the Grammy-winning veteran Keith Olsen, while others were credited to the band’s guitarist, Joe de la Hoyde. That veteran touch shows, as the tracks Olsen produced seem to be a little more listener-friendly, such as the haunting Ghost Stories and its instrumental intro, or the pop-influenced Vanity. Olsen also lent a hand on the keyboard-heavy Pulse and Escaping Alcatraz, along with the track I thought was the highlight, Downfall. Ghost Stories is featured in the video below, which came out with the original EP.

That’s not to say the de la Hoyde-produced songs are bad, though. While the lead single Tear Your Hate Apart and Afraid To Die are a tad on the ponderous side, as is the moody title track Turn The People, the guitar backdrop shines on Alive For A Minute and Sailing Stones seems to me to have the potential of being a great live song. As well, the final two tracks, the ballad I Belong To You and thematic Sky And The Dark Night – Part 2 – Control give the listener a good final impression of the band. (The original of Sky And The Dark Night was released in 2013 as an eight-minute cinematic EP trilogy.) The potential is there for production to improve with experience, particularly in utilizing some of the unusual outros on this album to advantage.

Fortunately, the arrangement of the tracks on the CD doesn’t follow the order of release, although three of the four original “Ghost Stories” tracks open the album. Songs from the other two EPs are scattered among the remaining ten, with the overall 13-song package coming in at a breezy 46 minute running time. The arrangement sets up the two most pop-friendly songs at the beginning (after the brief instrumental intro to Ghost Stories) with the following six tracks moving the compilation into more of a prog-rock feel before coming back with catchier tunes and the ballad to round out the album.

In their band bio, the group notes that:

The Monks of Mellonwah set out musically not to repeat past styles, yet rather to pave the future for alternative rock. In doing so, they take the preeminent sounds of 70s psychedelic rock and 90s alternative – and blend it into something fresh and new.

In a musical era where the sole goal of pop music seems to be one of competing to come up with the most compellingly annoying backbeat, a group which pays attention to the overall composition is rather refreshing. And while the songs don’t always hit the sweet spot, enough of them do to make this a compelling album worth purchasing if you’re into the progressive rock genre. While this band has picked up critical acclaim along the way, don’t take their word for it – or mine, for that matter. I encourage you to listen for yourself.

As I noted, the band is planning a American tour sometime in 2014, although dates have yet to be announced.

And now for something completely different…

Every so often something comes along which puts me at the intersection of doing something I enjoy because I find it interesting, being able to write about it, and making a little bit of money. Tomorrow will be the first of what I hope are many of these features.

If you’ve been reading here since about 2006 or so, you’ll have noticed I’ve done an occasional feature I call “Weekend of local rock.” I also had a Friday tradition called “Friday Night Videos” that I did for a couple years as well, and toward the end of the that series I abandoned the original premise of news videos and went to an all-music format. It seemed more appropriate for enjoyment over the weekend.

Thus. tomorrow I’m debuting a new regular feature. I haven’t thought of a catchier title than “monoblogue music”, so I’ll go with it. But in my occasional forays into attempting to find new writing clients, I came across an entrepreneur who was looking for people with a critical ear and existing media outlet to help promote his stable of musical artists by reviewing their work. So I contacted this gentleman and we have come to an agreement, the first installment of which will be up tomorrow afternoon. I like it because I get to listen to some different music than the formulaic crap which seems to plague the airwaves, from up-and-coming artists who may be enticed to come to this region. I’m sure he likes the fact I have a sub-200k world Alexa rank, but I think this can work to broaden my audience for the political end of my site as well. So it could be a win-win.

In speaking with this gentleman, it was made clear that my reviews didn’t have to be positive, which is fine. But I asked him to steer those artists my way who are either based on the East Coast or tour through the area. (The latter covers tomorrow’s first feature, as they are Australian-based but plan a U.S. tour later this year – on their previous tour they mainly played along the West Coast but I suspect this will be their breakout year and they will come this way.)

So while this may seem to be an unusual step – particularly for a political blog in an election year – bear in mind that I’ve always branched out into other realms because to write about politics on a daily basis would eventually burn me out. I look forward to what I hope will be a productive relationship on both ends, and one you the reader will enjoy.

Who might be the Shorebirds?

I’ve had some fun writing this article, which came from a comment/suggestion at the tail end of last season:

in the winter how about an article on 10 guys who you predict will be on the delmarva 2014 opening day roster?

Well, I waited until I had the camp roster earlier this month, but I’m going to go a little better and predict 25. They may not necessarily be the opening 25 – although I presume many of them will – but I constructed the list based on who I thought might advance from Aberdeen and who could be retained from last year’s Shorebird team. Unique about last year’s Delmarva squad was the lack of players who came up at the tail end of the season for a cup of coffee at our level – generally we would get 2 to 3 players from Aberdeen or the Gulf Coast League but last year we did not, probably because the Aberdeen IronBirds were chasing (and succeeded in securing) their first-ever playoff berth.

Thus, in alphabetical order and sorted by position, here are some of the players you might see in Delmarva in 2014:

Pitchers (13):

Sander Beck, rhp – Beck actually did a good job for the Shorebirds in 2013 (1-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 24/7 K/BB ratio in 14 appearances) but the logjam of pitchers brought in at the upper levels of the system, low draft status (a 33rd rounder in 2011), and his dearth of experience with just 65 professional innings logged in two seasons may mean Beck begins the year here, which would be his first full-season experience. Last year he joined the Shorebirds in early June.
Augey Bill, lhp – Perhaps the 13th guy, Bill is a lefty who pitched well for both the Gulf Coast League team and Aberdeen. Being a 39th round pick hurts his chances, but going 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 15/4 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 innings helps. The question is whether the Orioles deem him ready for a full-season team with the limited resume.
Steven Brault, lhp – Brault was an 11th round pick last year and starter for the IronBirds. His numbers were solid (1-2, 2.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 38/12 K/BB ratio in 43 innings) so it’s probable he advances to Delmarva.
Juan Guzman, rhp – Guzman would be returning for a third tour of duty with Delmarva. He was relatively decent overall in 2013 (6-6, 4.70 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 88/36 K/BB in 111 innings) but it will be interesting to see if he can grab one of the six starting rotation slots despite stiff competition because he pitched better in those situations than out of the bullpen. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, he made his debut there in 2010 and has pitched stateside since 2012.
Donnie Hart, lhp – A 27th round pick last season, Hart could round out the bullpen based on good numbers with the IronBirds (3-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 26/7 K/BB ratio in 24 innings) and the fact he’s a lefthander. Led Aberdeen with 13 games finished.
Hunter Harvey, rhp – Regarded as a legitimate big league prospect, last year’s first round selection (#22 overall) and son of former major-leaguer Bryan Harvey, Hunter excelled in eight regular season starts last season split between the Gulf Coast League and Aberdeen (0-1, 1.78 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 33/6 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings) so the only question to me is which Delmarva appearance will yield his first professional win. Could it be opening night in Asheville?
Mitch Horacek, lhp – Another who comes from a deep Aberdeen rotation, the 2013 9th round pick went 5-4 with a 2.78 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 45/7 K/BB ratio with the IronBirds.
Branden Kline, rhp – Sidelined in May with a broken fibula, Kline got a little bit of work in the Arizona Fall League but basically will have to play catch-up this season. The 2012 second-rounder (and Shorebird of the Week) went 1-2 with a 5.86 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 32/14 K/BB ratio in just 35 1/3 innings here before a forgettable 10.54 ERA in Arizona over 13 2/3 innings – that was against far superior competition than the average South Atlantic League team.
Harry Marino, lhp – Marino split his time last year between Aberdeen and Delmarva and made his Shorebird debut July 27. A non-drafted free agent originally inked by the Arizona Diamondbacks and signed last year by the Orioles, Marino went 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 15/10 K/BB ratio between the two teams, pitching 25 innings overall.
Alexander Santana, rhp – Entering his fourth year of pro ball, this Dominican product pitched well for Aberdeen last year (1-1, 2.14 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 48/18 K/BB ratio in just 33 2/3 innings) so I would look for him out of the bullpen.
Janser Severino, rhp – Another Dominican, Severino spent time as a starter with the IronBirds last season but pitched better out of the bullpen. Overall, he was 3-4 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 57/21 K/BB ratio in 62 innings.
Sebastian Vader, rhp – Drafted out of high school in 2010 (18th round), it’s taken Vader awhile to climb the ladder but he led the IronBirds with 7 wins and 85 1/3 innings pitched last season. Overall he was 7-3 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 64/18 K/BB ratio, If not for Harvey, Vader would likely be the opening day starter for Delmarva as he was for Aberdeen last season.
Jimmy Yacabonis. rhp – One of the bullpen closer mainstays for Aberdeen (the other being Donnie Hart), Jimmy was 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 14/5 K/BB ratio in 29 2/3 innings as he allowed only 15 hits. He was a 13th round pick last season.

It works out nicely that I have six projected starters: Harvey, Vader, Horacek, Kline, Brault, and Guzman, with Hart and Yacabonis closing and the others filling in the 2 to 3 innings in the middle. If the Aberdeen players can keep their walks down as they did in the NYPL, Delmarva could have a formidable staff.

For position players, (R) is for right-handed hitters, (L) for lefties, and (S) for switch-hitters. I’ll start with the catchers.

Catchers (3):

Pedro Perez (R) – He would be the most experienced of the group, but his bat is a definite liability – he hit just .105 (4×38) last season between Aberdeen and Delmarva, with a lifetime .177 mark over 4 pro seasons. The Shorebirds usually carry three catchers, but Perez could be inactive for portions of the season as well.
Chance Sisco (L) – As a second-round pick last season and in spite of this being his first full professional season out of high school, it’s thought that Sisco will be the primary catcher at Delmarva. He batted a robust .363 last season with a .919 OPS, but most of that was in the Gulf Coast League. Chance went 1-for-5 in 2 games with Aberdeen after the GCL season concluded.
Austin Wynns (R) – Another fairly high pick (10th round), Wynns was the primary catcher for Aberdeen. While Sisco will be considered the #1 catcher, as a general rule two Delmarva catchers get plenty of playing time so Wynns may be #1A. Wynns hit .235/0/21/.557 OPS in 54 games last year, getting the Aberdeen nod as a college catcher as opposed to being fresh from high school.

Infielders (5):

Byron Capellan (R) – Perhaps the most-traveled among the group, the Dominican native split his time between four teams last year, from the Gulf Coast League to one game in Frederick. While he just turned 20, this will be his fifth season in the pro ranks as he began his career while still 16 in the Dominican Summer League. All told, Capellan hit just .133 last season (and was 2-for-16 at Delmarva) and is a .210 hitter in four seasons. He split time between shortstop and second base last year.
Joel Hutter (R) – Joel is a guy who I think is a “cusp” player, one who could make the Frederick squad with a good spring, but hitting .230/5/41/.651 over a season here is probably not worth a promotion quite yet. He held down third base last year, but has played shortstop in the past. He was a 10th rounder two years ago but only a .240 lifetime hitter so far.
Jeff Kemp (R) – Another guy who’s versatile, Kemp was the primary second baseman for the IronBirds last season but also appeared at shortstop and third base. His bat isn’t too fearsome, though, as he hit .240/3/20/.686 OPS in 48 games. Kemp was a 33rd rounder last season.
Connor Narron (S) – In what would be his third season with Delmarva, Connor had a 2013 where he regressed – demoted from Frederick to Delmarva at mid-season and hitting .172/1/12/.536 OPS overall. Predominantly a first baseman, Narron played a little outfield but the onetime fifth-rounder (and 2012 SotW) has probably been passed on the depth chart by Trey Mancini, an 8th round pick in 2013 who hit .328 for Aberdeen and has seen time with the Orioles’ big league camp this spring. I think Mancini has the Frederick gig and will bypass Delmarva. That brings Narron back here to try and improve his numbers.
Kristopher Richards (R) – Another player who split time btween Delmarva and Aberdeen in 2013, this non-drafted free agent also lends the flexibility to play at first, second, or occasionally third base. Overall, Richards hit .207/0/22/.519 OPS but was respectable with a .253 average for Aberdeen.

Outfielders (4):

Conor Bierfeldt (R) – A slugging outfielder who fell to the 29th round last year, Bierfeldt was second in the NYPL with his 12 home runs – overall his numbers were .264/12/16/.862 OPS in 62 games. (The league leader in home runs had 13 in 74 games.) Obviously the question is whether that power can translate to better pitching and a tough hitter’s park. Bierfeldt was a corner outfielder, generally playing left field for the IronBirds.
Sam Kimmel (L) – Interestingly, Kimmel was a catcher who converted to outfield last season, which is why he repeated at Aberdeen. So he will be a little older than SAL competition, but as an 18th round pick he’s probably at about the correct level. Kimmel hit .277/1/16/.695 OPS last season with the IronBirds and is a .280 hitter in two seasons there. Kimmel played exclusively in left field last season.
Anthony Vega (L) – He began the season with Delmarva last year, but after a .211 first half Vega was sent to Aberdeen; there he batted a more respectable .256 for the season. Overall, it translated to a .229/2/13/.570 OPS season for the 2012 30th round pick who manned mostly left field here but slid over to center for Aberdeen.
Mike Yastrzemski (L) – Of course, most casual fans know the name made by his grandfather; indeed, the younger Yaz turned down the Red Sox out of high school. A 14th round pick, Mike has been featured in the big league camp after a .273/3/25/.781 OPS season for Aberdeen where he played all three outfield positions, mostly center.

It doesn’t appear the Shorebirds will be an offensive juggernaut, but their pitching should be very good. We may see a lot of 3-2, 2-1 style games at the ballyard. And since I projected a rotation, I may as well do a batting order while I’m at it.

Mike Yastrzemski, cf (L)
Jeff Kemp, 2b (R)
Sam Kimmel, lf (L)
Conor Bierfeldt, rf (R)
Chance Sisco, dh (L)
Joel Hutter, 3b (R)
Connor Narron, 1b (S)
Austin Wynns, c (R)
Byron Capellan, ss (R)

And one last thing. As you know, I do a Shorebird of the Week, which means I take all the photos and write the text which goes with it. One problem with this approach is that I have a tough time getting my first couple weeks filled and certain pitchers who don’t happen to appear in games I attend are overlooked. To this end, I would like to solicit reader photos of players, for which I would give credit. (Sorry, there’s nothing in the budget for pay.) I know some readers go down to spring training so I would love to use more photos and enhance the whole Shorebird of the Week portion of this website.

But be looking for the first installment April 3rd. We are just three weeks away!

Update 3/22: Well, so much for going 25-for-25. Steve Melewski of MASN Sports reported that among the seven cut from the Orioles’ minor league camp was relief pitcher Harry Marino. Also cast away were two other Shorebirds from last season: pitcher Casey Upperman and first baseman Nik Balog. It proves again that there is a pecking order in the organization, as none of the seven cut were drafted by the Orioles: several were signed out of independent leagues, one came in a trade, and Balog was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2012.

Update 3/24: And another two bite the dust as Melewski reported Connor Narron and Juan Guzman were among five minor league cuts. Frankly, I was sort of surprised Narron even made it to camp but the organization isn’t really deep at first base and probably wanted to evaluate him in a situation where other players were readily available to see. Meanwhile, it appears the depth of mound prospects for our level made Guzman a victim of a numbers game.

Update 3/26: And….there goes Sander Beck. Another low-round victim of the numbers game. I wonder how many of these guys will be playing independent league this summer.

Sound advice for me and my fellows

As many of you know, I write regularly for the Patriot Post. As such, I’ve been a longtime subscriber to their various releases and today editor Mark Alexander wrote a piece called “The GOP’s Fratricidal Threat to Liberty.” And while I disagree with his premise to some degree – because he seems to blame the TEA Party movement for recent failures moreso than the “Establishment” pushback, something I would reverse – the overall point about unity is a good one, and it got me to thinking about how things are going in Maryland.

Back in November I was crucified for a particular post, but in light of recent events I want to quote from what I said then:

Now you can trust me when I tell you this “erstwhile contributor” to Red Maryland has had many differences with them over the years. But I have to say that they are an important piece of Republican politics in this state, for better or worse. I would have more respect for those running the Lollar campaign if they pointed out the differences between their guy and the other Republicans running than I do with their spending time worrying about what a group of bloggers thinks. If you disagree with Kline’s assessment (of your campaign), prove him wrong and step up your game.

Indeed, I think the Lollar campaign has stepped up. But more to my point, there are some who are taking a victory lap over the eviction of Red Maryland from the pages of the Baltimore Sun. It’s well worth noting a particular timeline of events: I wrote my piece on November 6, the Red Maryland – Baltimore Sun partnership came out November 20 (on the eve of the MDGOP Fall Convention), and their endorsement of Larry Hogan was made official December 12. So the endorsement was made after the Sun hired them.

Also worth mentioning is this part of Red Maryland‘s rationale on choosing Hogan:

No doubt there will be, in some circles, the gnashing of teeth over our endorsement, much like there was for our 2010 endorsement of Bob Ehrlich. However, we will continue to ascribe to the Buckley Rule and support the most viable right candidate who can win. (Emphasis in original.)

Gnashing of teeth – check. But there’s another issue at play here, and it has nothing to do with who is on what payroll.

There are only a handful of conservative political blogs in Maryland; perhaps no more than a dozen really cover the state well on a regular basis. As I said back in November, I have had many differences with Red Maryland and probably will lock horns with them on a number of future occasions. There’s no doubt we see the limits and overall merit of the Buckley Rule differently.

But I do agree with the need for the Eleventh Commandment. There has to be a change in philosophy among all of us – instead of trying to be the “tallest midget in the room” (as a Red Maryland stalwart is fond of saying) by needlessly savaging political and online opponents, we should be the ones who support each other in the overall uphill climb. On the whole, we’ve lost a valuable platform because of mistakes made by those who tried to be that tallest midget, ones for which they were called out. Hopefully a lesson is learned out of all this; and I don’t doubt Red Maryland will still have a part to play going forward. Just remember, folks: perception is reality.

As I see in my perception, each and every one of us who toil in this field can complain all we want and write 24/7/365 about the mess that is Maryland politics, but if we don’t strive to educate and motivate our readers into supporting good conservative candidates from around the state we’ve done nothing but waste our time. (Okay, a few of us may be paid for advertising, consulting, and other favors, but that’s peanuts.)

I may not necessarily agree with Red Maryland or Jackie Wellfonder about their belief that Larry Hogan is the best candidate for governor, but if he wins on June 24 it’s our job to help him win on November 4. I can tell you from experience that it’s a rare ballot indeed where a Democrat is more conservative than a Republican, and looking at the top of the Maryland ticket this year won’t be one of those rarities. Trust me, it’s not like I’ve never had to put my ego aside because my choice in the primary lost. But I sucked it up, buttercup, because I understood what was at stake.

To me, the end game is to elect conservatives, and if we elect GOP moderates we either convince them they should become more conservative or find a better primary opponent for the next go-round. As Alexander said, we will still agree with them on 80 percent or more of the issues.

To finish, let me quote Alexander but add just a couple words:

The internecine warfare in the (Maryland) GOP (blogosphere) may be good for cornering constituents and emptying their wallets, but it is most assuredly and demonstrably NOT good for advancing Liberty.

If I have a legitimate beef with a candidate – and there’s at least one I’ve been disappointed in so far – I’m reserving the right to say so. But the events of the last couple weeks should remind us all we have a ton of work to do and these misadventures are too much of an ill-timed idle diversion.

Greener pastures

A couple years ago there was this guy who ran the Maryland Republican Party, but left because he thought he would have a much better chance to live out his dream of becoming a Congressman if he moved to another state.

I think you know where this is going. Late last night I got an e-mail from the TEA Party Express with the subject line “Big news from West Virginia.”

Hundreds of Republicans in Maryland (and at least one Maryland refugee) probably threw a brick at their computer just then. The TPX went on:

Today, the campaign trail led us to the Mountain State where we had the honor to endorse a true movement conservative, Alex Mooney for the 2nd Congressional district in West Virginia.

Alex Mooney is exactly the kind of Constitutional conservative that will bring the voice of the working class to Washington, D.C. He is a proven conservative champion who will never back down in the face of President Obama’s war on coal and will stand strong against the EPA’s radical anti-coal agenda.

Alex Mooney has a history of standing up for what is right and best for the people. Too many D.C. politicians say one thing while on the campaign and act and vote a different way once they are elected.

Mooney has already proven his willingness to stand up to the establishment of both parties at the state level in order to fight for his constituents and his conservative values. Now we need him to do the same thing in D.C., and stop the Obama-Pelosi big government agenda of tax increases, crippling regulations, and reckless spending.

Unlike the career politicians that have buried future generations under crippling debt, Alex Mooney is a conservative game-changer that will tackle the complacent, “do nothing but spend” culture of D.C.

Of course, they say nothing about these legislative accomplishments being conducted here in Maryland. And don’t get me wrong: over his final term in the Senate, the monoblogue Accountability Project pegged him as the second-best Senator in Maryland (behind Andy Harris) so he certainly has the conservative bonafides in my reckoning. I just think the TPX is being a little less than honest in their presentation, as opposed to the Madison Project which acknowledges some of his Maryland work.

Yet Mooney is having done for him (to a lesser extent) what Dan Bongino is doing in his Sixth Congressional District race here in Maryland – taking it to a national level. You don’t often see “establishment” Republicans do so as blatantly, but they tend to live off larger donations whch come to them more quietly.

And there is one other advantage to nationalizing Mooney’s campaign: maybe he can return some of the donations from Maryland Republicans who can use the money in their candidacy. We’ll see if he has enough support to win and finally achieve his dream.

Update: if your computer survived the first salvo, you probably don’t want to know that the Senate Conservatives Fund has also endorsed Mooney as one of five House candidates they’re backing.