August 2013 – Page 2

The real polls are yet to come

Because there isn’t a whole lot of interest yet in the race, polling from reliable sources doesn’t exist yet in the Maryland gubernatorial primaries. Since none of us are privy to internal polling done by the campaigns – if someone is, he or she’s not talking – two state websites have attempted to step into the breach: the old reliable Red Maryland and the upstart Red White and Blue.

In both cases, their polls show a spirited three-way race, with David Craig holding a 7.5 point edge over Ron George on the Red Maryland poll. But on the RWB poll, Charles Lollar leads by 4 points over Craig.

Having done polls myself, I know the results are rife with manipulation, as the campaigns exhort their supporters to vote in the respective polls to make their cause look better. A victory in these polls can prove to be a little lift in the real polls, as success tends to breed success.

However, I approach these with the theory that the more passionate supporters who would vote in these internet ballots exist in rough proportion to those found in real life, so I accept the idea that it’s a three-way race. A simple averaging of the polls in question would put David Craig at 33%, Charles Lollar at 30%, and Ron George at 23%, with the rest supporting one of the other candidates. As it turns out, the numbers for Craig and George are fairly consistent on both sites, but Lollar’s fluctuates by 16 points between the two.

Yet if you do a little digging into the actual numbers as I have, you may find that these polls are perhaps propping up one of the contenders to an outsized extent. The RWB poll is better for calculating this because the numbers are broken down not just by county in percentages, but the actual number of votes cast for each county. Unfortunately, the Red Maryland poll doesn’t provide the same crosstabs, but it does break down responses by county enough so I can make an educated guess as to how things really are.

Let’s begin with the obvious: there are three counties which are ridiculously oversampled in both polls, and all of them directly benefit two of the candidates. Both Harford and Talbot counties favor David Craig in an outsized manner, which is natural because Craig is Harford County Executive and running mate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio comes from Talbot. The other county is Anne Arundel, which benefits Ron George as he represents a portion of that county.

As it turns out, Anne Arundel (and to a lesser extent, Harford) are so oversampled that they suck the oxygen out of a number of counties – many of which tend to favor Charles Lollar. Out of nine counties significantly undersampled on the two polls, Lollar carries six of them, Craig two, and George one.

So when I adjusted the data to fit a more realistic turnout model (based on the RWB poll results, which featured the necessary raw data) I found that Lollar picked up four points, Craig lost four, and George (somewhat surprisingly) gained one. If you made that adjustment to the Red Maryland poll, you literally have a three-way battle which is anyone’s to win: Craig 28%, Lollar 26%, and George 25%. On the RWB poll, Lollar would have a commanding 42%-30% lead over Craig, with George lagging behind at 23%.

Truthfully, I don’t think Charles Lollar has 42% of the vote right now, but I don’t see him as third place either. At this stage in the game, it’s all about getting activists and volunteers, and I can give you an example from the Farm and Home Show this past weekend.

You may recall these pictures from my Facebook page:

I can tell you that the David Craig signs in the top photo and the literature on the upper right edge of the bottom photo all came courtesy of Craig’s county coordinator, who was my second volunteer of the weekend Thursday night and already there with bells on when I came by to check after work; she was an hour early for her shift.

The Ron George signs came courtesy of the candidate himself, as he stopped by sometime Friday to drop them off. I had some Ron George literature sent to me prior to the event, but it appears to be supplemented by the inserts; moreover, I had no bumper stickers or palm cards when I started. I do now.

Meanwhile, the yellow Charles Lollar palm cards and business cards in the middle of the second photo came via a volunteer who took time out of her trip to the beach to drop them off on Friday. (She would have also brought a big sign, but I advised her against it.) Now that’s dedication, and that’s why it’s important to get an early start on a campaign so the word can be spread.

So perhaps these are the polls of activists, but if Ron George only has support in Anne Arundel County and David Craig rests on his laurels assuming the Baltimore area is his, they may not even make it to the primary when there’s the possibility of Larry Hogan and Michael Steele to consider. I don’t see both of them entering the race, but one of the two may make the field too large to support. Worth noting, though, is even if Michael Steele took his 6% support in the Red Maryland poll, added the entirety of the undecided, and got the Blaine Young supporters to back him, he would still be fourth.

That would be the penalty of getting into the race late, banking on name recognition but not having the grassroots support needed for victory at the polls. Money can do a lot, but it can’t always win – otherwise we’d have a new Senator named Rob Sobhani.

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On a completely unrelated note, you are reading post number 3,500 in the series I call monoblogue, Not bad for nearly eight years of work, you think?

The destruction of 2016

Martin O’Malley and Maryland Democrats were attacked on two fronts in recent days. One came from an old foe and thorn in “O’Guvnah’s” side while the other pointed out a nearly decade-old omission Martin O’Malley is trying to take advantage of. Both are related to MOM’s appearances on the Eastern Shore.

In Ocean City O’Malley addressed the Maryland Association of Counties for the seventh time as governor. I’m sure MACo president (and Wicomico County Executive) Rick Pollitt was nodding in agreement, but Larry Hogan and Change Maryland had a different, blistering opinion of O’Malley’s remarks.

(O’Malley) was not just stretching the truth, it’s worse than that. Nearly everything he said in his speech today was blatantly false, much of what he said was actually the complete opposite of the truth.

The governor is entitled to his own opinions but he can’t just make up his own facts and pretend that they are true. You can’t say you are most proud of your success in job creation, and say you recovered 99% of all the jobs lost, when you actually doubled the unemployment rate and lost 110,000 more jobs, more than any governor in history.

You can’t brag about your success in strengthening small businesses, when you have lost 6,500 small businesses. You can’t claim success in economic development when you have lost 10 of the 13 Fortune 500 companies in the state, under your watch.

How can the governor say that he cut more spending – more than anyone in history, when he actually increased spending by $8 billion, an increase of more than 30%, and claim that he lowered taxes when he enacted the largest tax increases in history, 40 consecutive tax hikes that take an additional $3.1 billion a year out of the pockets of struggling Maryland families and small businesses?

What we saw today was a governor spinning magical tales of successes that only exist in his own mind. The people of Maryland deserve to know the truth.

All of this and more was unearthed by Change Maryland over the last two-plus years, as they have done the research and fact-checking seriously lacking from most of Maryland’s mainstream media.

Of course Hogan is still being mentioned as a gubernatorial candidate, so this salvo isn’t completely unexpected. But it’s interesting he’s speaking about the term-limited incumbent rather than the heir apparent Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown, who was endorsed by the aforementioned Pollitt recently. Maybe that works to the do-nothing narrative some in that race are trying to promote.

On the other hand, Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio is already on a ticket, but it didn’t stop her from raining on Martin O’Malley’s Dover Bridge parade.

It’s great that the Eastern Shore is finally getting a new Dover bridge, but this project should have been completed much quicker and for less money. The O’Malley – Brown Administration, in a flailing attempt to justify the gasoline tax increase, is trying to take credit for the Dover bridge that was already funded in the last decade. When this Administration took over, $41 million previously set aside for this project suddenly vanished.

Now, nearly ten years later, the Administration is ready to hold a press conference. As we’ve seen with other transportation projects across the state, the O’Malley – Brown Administration takes the money, spends it on whatever they want, then warns us that roads and bridges are falling apart and raises everyone’s taxes to fix the problems they created.

They are hoping that everyone forgets that tax payers are required to pay twice due to their reckless spending policies. This is also going to cost $9 million more now that the project has been delayed.

The bridge, which lies in Haddaway-Riccio’s district, has been a sore spot for area residents for decades, and perhaps symbolizes the uncaring Annapolis attitude to those who live in Caroline, Talbot, and Dorchester counties. Moreover, as originally intended, the bridge would have already been completed two years ago if greedy fingers hadn’t allocated the money for who-knows-what.

But while Haddaway-Riccio rightly blasts the current administration and their General Assembly minions for their inaction on the Dover Bridge, we don’t really know yet what the game plan will be for a David Craig administration. Will they have the intestinal fortitude to cut off the Red Line and Purple Line, the former of which will be in the planning process and the latter at the verge of construction by the time Craig takes office? And will they repeal the 2013 gas tax increase, or shrug their shoulders and figure Marylanders are already conditioned to pay it and pocket the extra money for their pet projects, like bond bills?

Certainly the Dover Bridge is a vital link for the area, but what about other potential Eastern Shore projects like a bypass for Easton much like the one encircling Salisbury, or perhaps an interchange at U.S. 50 and Maryland Route 404, where traffic headed for Ocean City and the Delaware beaches go their separate ways in a bottleneck each weekend? (Improvements to Maryland Route 404 were cited in the same announcement as the Dover Bridge.) Longer-term, what about a southern Chesapeake Bay crossing? And I’m certain my friends up the Shore and in the state’s panhandle have their ideas for improving how they get around as well.

It’s nice to be thought of once in a while, but truly creating “one Maryland” will mean not embarking on boondoggles and making the serious investments in infrastructure most useful in every corner of the state.

In his headlong rush to the White House, Martin O’Malley has mastered the photo-ops, but he can’t sweep his record under the rug.

2013 Wicomico Farm and Home Show in pictures and text

Most counties have a traditional county fair, but ours does it a little differently as they bill it the Farm and Home Show. But it’s on the 77th annual rendition, and as always they promised a whale of a time.

Actually, this 70′ long whale replica came from the National Aquarium in Baltimore. Not to be outdone in the aquatic wars, the Phillips Wharf Environmental Center brought out their Fishmobile.

Somewhat more on the exotic side were these alpacas, which are raised locally for their wool. They are not camera-shy, either.

Yet while all three had their patrons, the WFHS still had its bread and butter of more mainstream, rural attractions, like this mechanical bull.

This was accompanied by a somewhat obnoxious huckster who probably made his money off the photos he was selling for $5 a pop. Nice work if you can get it, I suppose.

But much more work went into the exhibits which were spread throughout the Farm and Home Show’s exhibit hall and show areas outside. Whether it was produce…

…or livestock…

…or horsemanship…

…dozens of youth and adult participants competed for the elusive blue ribbons and best of show designations. And it wasn’t just in those categories – photography holds a special place in my heart as well.

You likely can’t see it on the left, but one of my fiance Kim’s pictures is there with a blue ribbon on it, denoting it won its subcategory. On the right is one of her daughter’s photos, with not just a blue ribbon for subcategory but a purple one denoting “Best of Show” out of the entire junior division.

I also happen to know the woman who swept the adult “Best of Show” divisions, and it was no surprise Francie Davis won those because she’s won at the Delaware State Fair before. I’ve seen her work there and she’s quite good.

Yet there were other competitions held at the Farm and Home Show. Over the course of Saturday afternoon the antique tractor pull pitted man and machine against weight and mean old Mr. Gravity.

If you liked smoky and noisy, that was the event for you. And the kids even got to join in the fun – with pedal power, of course.

This big kid likes to see cars which were around when he was a little one – yes, I am a sucker for a car show.

This old Ford Fairlane was fascinating with its retractable hardtop. Not sure I’d be a big fan of what would then be a trunkless car, which is probably why the concept never caught on.

But I do like the more exotic models – not necessarily the 1950s-era Bentley someone brought, but this old Nash Rambler.

I’m of an age where I remember a dashboard full of doodads like this one.

And there’s other interesting detail as well. How did we survive with these bumpers?

I’d be curious to know where this was in Millsboro. This dealership has probably been out of existence for forty years or more, but lives on with the nameplate.

There were also people hawking their wares. One of the more interesting people I ran across was E. Dee Monnen, who is an author and one-time president of our Wicomico County Republican Club. So what does she mainly write on? Old-time baseball.

As I found out, her interest in the sport came from her grandfather. He was a contemporary of the legendary Washington Senators pitcher Walter Johnson and was, in fact, his first mound opponent, she claimed.

Of course, I was there to handle the Republican table at the event. Muir Boda took my pic there, with longtime volunteer Bob Miller on the far left (a rarity.)

Apparently, though, I missed out on many of the politicians who dropped in. While I saw County Council members Joe Holloway and Bob Culver in my rounds today, apparently Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio, Delegate candidate Mary Beth Carozza, and Delegate Charles Otto were supporters of the auction they held Friday night and Delegate Ron George dropped by yesterday to say hello and drop off some “Ron George for Governor” yard signs (which, by the way, are in my possession at the moment.)

I also saw this worst-kept secret made official.

Looks like Jim Mathias has a fight on his hands.

But as another Wicomico Farm and Home Show went into the books, one has to ponder if it’s going the way of these tractors: old and functional, but symbols of another time passed by.

I saw quite a few kids there, but many more gray hairs. If the WFHS is to survive, I think it needs to find some more items to cater to a younger crowd. It’s most likely the Wicomico GOP will remain there as supporters, but they truly need to figure out a way to increase attendance. There’s no admission fee so no one really counts the patrons, but if there were 500 people on the grounds at any one time (including workers and help) I would be surprised.

Maybe it’s time for a fresh approach. If antique tractors and cars can be made into works of art, so can this event.

Update: Speaking of antique tractors, I wanted to point out one more thing and it actually works into the theme with which I concluded.

I don’t know the woman personally, but being in the farming environment I’m sure Katie Howard has earned every one of her gray hairs. Yet that didn’t stop her from getting off the sidelines and trying her first “hook” as a tractor puller.

She didn’t win her class, but she pulled it a respectable distance – more than some of the others pulled. A little more speed and she would have done even better; of course, that knowledge comes from experience and she could be better next time around.

It’s that combination of experience and willingness to try something new which often leads to success, and it’s a lesson for the WHFS to learn for the 78th rendition next year.

Harris slates Fruitland townhall for Tuesday

Unlike many of his counterparts, our Congressman Andy Harris is holding another town hall meeting during the “District Work Period.” His announcement was simple:

Dear Michael,

I’m hosting a town hall event in Fruitland on Tuesday to let you know about the work I’m doing in Washington and answer questions you may have about important issues like Obamacare, immigration, the NSA, government spending, and jobs. The event will be at Black Diamond Catering and Lodge (219 S Fruitland Blvd) starting at 5:30 PM.

I hope to see you on Tuesday!

Whether I’ll be able to make that early time depends a lot on how my outside job goes. But among the laundry list of items he cites, the NSA jumps out at me. Andy was one of those who voted for the Amash amendment, which was intended to curb the NSA and their domestic spying program. Of all the issues facing the nation in this session of Congress, that may have split the body most as far-left liberals rubbed shoulders with TEA Party conservatives in supporting Justin Amash.

So as long as no one in a chicken suit shows, things should be heated similarly to his Bel Air townhall. It will be interesting to see what media shows up, won’t it?

Shorebird of the Week – August 15, 2013

While it’s the idea that every player on the Shorebirds improves as the season wears on, the long grind of the season also proves to weed out players from roles which may not suit them. Such seems to be the case with Mark Blackmar, who was a bust as a starting pitcher but has been a success as a reliever over the last month or so.

The splits are telling enough for the 21-year-old Texan, who was drafted in the 16th round two years ago out of Temple College in that state. As a starter, Mark was 1-5, 6.84 in 11 outings (50 innings) with a 1.92 WHIP. Over his last eight outings as a reliever, Mark is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in 25 innings, with a much better 1.12 WHIP.

So the overall numbers don’t look all that great and probably won’t translate well when the agate type of the 2013 season is set; for example, Blackmar would have to hurl another 13 scoreless innings this season just to get his ERA for the year under 5. (As it stands, his ERA for the season is 5.86 to go with a 3-6 record, 100 hits allowed in 75 innings, and a reasonably good 42/24 strikeout/walk ratio.) But the improvement should be obvious and it will give the Orioles an opportunity to set Mark up for success, perhaps as a reliever here or in Frederick.

While it wasn’t so pronounced in Aberdeen last season, there were signs that Mark would be a better pitcher in small doses, particularly when it came to control. As a starter for the IronBirds Blackmar’s strikeout/walk ratio was 14/16 but in relief it was 15/7. The same applies this season as Mark went from a 23/20 ratio as a starter to 19/4 as a reliever. Perhaps he has a more aggressive mindset out of the bullpen, but whatever the case the change is pronounced enough to perhaps convince the organization Mark would serve best out of the ‘pen in the future.

Reading my mind?

Since I spoke about ethanol Sunday, I found it quite funny that a free-market coalition of groups put out a letter dated today regarding the repeal of the Renewable Fuel Standard. I’ll start by quoting their release under the moniker of the Competitive Enterprise Institute:

The RFS is frequently criticized for its adverse impacts on food prices, wildlife habitat, and hunger-stricken nations, and potentially devastating impact on fuel prices. “These criticisms are valid and important,” said CEI Senior Fellow Marlo Lewis. “But even apart from those concerns, Congress should repeal the RFS because it conflicts with basic tenets of a free society. In a free society, no company should be forced to execute and assure the success of another company’s business plan.”

It’s an angle I considered in a roundabout way when I wrote about the benefits of scrapping the RFS on Sunday, obviously not knowing this letter was in the works. Interestingly enough, a similar broad coalition of groups objected a few weeks back when the Domestic Alternative Fuels Act of 2013 was proposed, a proposal I also wrote on.

Of course, we can complain all we want now because no proposal to scuttle the RFS will be going anywhere, particularly when Democrats generally favor more expensive “alternative” energy and farm-state Republicans won’t cross their key constituency, which is being made fat and happy by artificially high corn prices. Worth pointing out is that, had the economy grown as it was during the pre-Speaker Pelosi Bush years, we may be using enough gasoline that we could accommodate increased ethanol supplies without bumping into the “blend wall” as we threaten to do now. Even environmentalists have a problem with ethanol, although their solution is accelerating standards in other areas instead of properly dismissing them entirely.

So perhaps this is a situation where great minds think alike, but in the grand scheme of things we’re not going to see real solutions until the political climate in Washington changes and a cool front of common sense blows in.

Two for one?

It’s rare that you hear much from a lieutenant governor candidate and rarer still that the person talks about policy.

But in keeping with the theme that Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio would be ready to assume the governorship on a moment’s notice, she was entrusted with making a statement on Maryland’s health exchanges.

Under the O’Malley-Brown Administration, implementing the new health care law is more about politics, marketing and spin than improving people’s lives. The Administration wants everyone to believe that somehow Obamacare is free, as if grants magically appear that nobody has to pay for. They even said no state funds would be used to launch the exchange, which we later learned was not true.

If the new health care exchange is so great, then it should not take $24 million in marketing and technical assistance for people to use it. And make no mistake, this so-called ‘outreach’ is targeted towards their political base. It’s also strange that the O’Malley – Brown Administration takes credit for creating 300 marketing temp jobs funded by our own tax dollars. Government-run health care is bringing us an 83% healthcare tax. That won’t be in the glossy brochures, because it’s a fact.

Worth noting is the state’s $24 million tab, which supposedly created 300 new jobs for the “navigators.” $80,000 per job is actually pretty cheap for the state, but don’t worry – I’m sure it will bust its budget before the fiscal year is out. (Locally, we will be “served” by the Worcester County Health Department. We only rated 17 jobs in “outreach, education, eligibility determination and enrollment services particularly to hard-to-reach populations.”)

Of course, the question is what happens next year, and the next, as the program becomes even more entrenched. Do the workers get to unionize? Will they actually receive benefits? (Many of these jobs are wage-only.) There are a lot of unanswered questions.

But the more important point to this article is the fact that the statement was put out by the lieutenant governor candidate. I don’t recall Bob Ehrlich giving Mary Kane or Kristen Cox much to say on the campaign trail; granted, he was already in office when Cox was selected and a fairly known quantity when he picked Kane.

It reminds me somewhat of the saying about Bill Clinton’s 1992 run with “the smartest woman in the world.” Forget Al Gore, the real brains behind the operation would be Hillary, said the pundits. Of course, Craig and Haddaway-Riccio are married, but not to each other. They’ll only be joined at the hip for the next 10 to 15 months on the campaign trail. (It would be interesting to see how Haddaway-Riccio and Ken Ulman would fare in a debate.)

So the selection by the other GOP candidates becomes more important, because David Craig has upped the ante a little bit with this statement. That’s not to say there aren’t other great people for the job out there, but the others should choose wisely.

Ignoring the market

Gasoline. It’s something all of us need, and if you’re reading this in Maryland last month you began paying roughly 3.5 cents more per gallon at each fillup thanks to the state expanding the sales tax to gasoline as part of a multi-year process for full adoption of our 6% sales tax to that product.

While that bad news applies to Maryland consumers, all of us may soon be seeing less bang for the buck if the EPA gets its way. They’re edging us closer and closer to widespread usage of E15 fuel, which may be a necessary method to comply with short-sighted federal law. The problem: a “blend wall” where the amount of ethanol mandated for use runs up to the limits created by actual consumption, which is down significantly from that which was predicted when the regulations were written several years ago when the economy was humming along.

Many longtime followers of my site know I use the American Petroleum Institute as a go-to resource when it comes to energy issues. Yes, they are an advocacy group but they advocate the tried-and-true solutions for our energy problems, advocating for the least-costly alternative of petroleum which, as a beneficial byproduct, is a great job creator to boot. So while the EPA believes it’s “flexible” on renewable fuel standards enacted as part of a 2005 law, API believes they’re quite inflexible. The only real change was in the category of cellulosic biofuels, which saw its mandate cut by more than half – quite handy when there’s only a negligible amount currently in production. (API has a handy guide to the pitfalls of the RFS here.)

Meanwhile ethanol apologists – like the group which lobbied for E15 in the first place – claim their product will create jobs and reduce our dependence on foreign oil without making an impact on grocery prices, Yet their solution is more government mandates and subsidies. I find it quite telling that this group formed mere days after the election of Barack Obama, who was probably – and correctly – thought of as a person who would shower even more government largess onto the ethanol industry in his quest to wipe out the coal and oil industries.

Yet Congress can act, just as it did in making the mandates in the first place nearly a decade ago – a lifetime in the oil industry, given the boom in oil exploration and fracking over the last five years. So what would happen if the ethanol mandates were scrapped?

Obviously you would have a number of winners and losers. All those who invested in ethanol plants figuring that the government subsidies and mandates would have profit rolling their way – well, they would have the biggest “L” stamped on their forehead. Farmers may take a temporary hit as corn prices drop, but they would eventually stabilize; moreover, farmers who shunned soybeans or wheat for corn to be turned into fuel could go back to those other staple items.

Consumers would win in a number of ways. First of all, they’d get better quality gasoline that’s less expensive, which would both increase their mileage per gallon and amount of money remaining in their wallets. Secondly, the lowering of corn prices would benefit them at the grocery store, and not just in corn-based products because feed for poultry and livestock would be cheaper. And lastly, their small equipment would last longer because ethanol is poisonous to many small gasoline-powered motors.

And while the intention of these mandates was to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, new advances in exploration and extraction have placed the goal of North American energy self-sufficiency within reach. Nor is it necessarily in the form of gasoline, as companies with large automotive fleets are moving toward using natural gas as a motor fuel, building their own infrastructure along the way. (Yes, this can be done without a massive taxpayer subsidy or regulation.)

It just makes more sense to me to not grow our fuel, but our food. When you think of corn, you don’t think of a gas tank but instead think about that tasty ear cooked to perfection with some butter and pepper on it. Let’s get back to using corn for what the Good Lord meant it for, eating.

The R3volution will NOT be televised

On Monday another former Presidential candidate tries to become a media maven.

In and of itself, that’s not unusual as several of the alsorans have taken to the new media in various ways: Newt Gingrich has Gingrich Productions, which works in the realms of film and literature. Rick Santorum founded Patriot Voices as an advocacy group, but one which offers a movie called “Our Sacred Honor.” Perhaps the closest to doing multimedia is Herman Cain, but the ambitious “new online network of programming designed to give you the other side of popular culture, politics, entertainment” of CainTV has seemed to devolve into a mix of regular short videos and written commentary to go along with Herman’s nationally-syndicated radio show.

Yet the idea is still appealing, and on Monday Ron Paul will debut what he calls the Ron Paul Channel. There he promises:

When the Ron Paul Channel launches, we’ll take mainstream media by storm. No advertisers, no corporate agenda — just the truth delivered exclusively to subscribers like you.

From the looks of it, there will be at least some daily programming on the Ron Paul Channel beginning tomorrow – perhaps not a 24/7 setup like a cable news network, but having an exclusively online presence also saves in the overhead of actually securing a channel on cable or satellite, as Glenn Beck has done. Similarly, another alternative news network targeting the conservative audience is the TEA Party News Network, which is comprised of videos of their personalities on other news sources.

Trying a more conventional route, however, is One America News, which went on the air in July and runs constant programming to around 10 million cable-equipped homes. Their alliance with the Washington Times lends them some gravitas but may lead to a perception that they’re a knockoff of Fox News.

But Ron Paul has a rabidly loyal following that these other outlets don’t, with the possible exception of Beck. So what kind of audience can such a channel expect?

Let’s look at some numbers.

In 2012, according to Wikipedia, Ron Paul received 2,095,795 votes. However, there are perhaps 10 percent of these voters who would be the most militant followers and that’s the base one can expect to at least look at the RPC. So we’re down to 210,000 homes and maybe 10 percent of that crowd would be using the RPC as their primary news source daily. I think 21,000 viewers daily is a fairly decent estimate of their potential audience to start if all goes well and the programming is of sufficient quality. It may seem like a lot but it pales in comparison to what the cable networks reach, even on a summer weekend.

(As a point of comparison, the social media presence of the RPC has fewer than 13,000 followers right now between Facebook and Twitter. So I may not be far off base.)

It’s worth mentioning, though, that the RPC won’t be looking for sponsors, but subscribers. To me, that implies a monetary component which could be a few dollars a month or more for enhanced access. Obviously I could be wrong, and I hope I am because one would think that spreading the truth according to Ron Paul would be done in such a way to make it as accessible as possible.

A channel run by moneybombs? I suppose it’s possible; after all, we’ve found over the last half-decade or more that Dr. Paul is a pretty good marketer.

Another vote for Vogt

It’s beginning to look like a race out in the Sixth District, but the question is now becoming one of whether the establishment Republican is really Dan Bongino, who earned his stripes by garnering the Maryland GOP’s senatorial nomination last April. Consider that Dan’s closest opponent in that race, Richard Douglas, is now backing Vogt:

Service in the armed forces is not the only quality required of a conscientious member of Congress. But it is an enormous asset. For this reason, I believe that former Marine rifleman and Afghanistan veteran David Vogt is the best choice to represent Maryland District 6 in the U.S House of Representatives.

During the last twelve years, our nation’s most important national security enterprises have been combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. After September 11, 2001, Americans like Mr. Vogt enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps and other branches of the armed forces to perform our nation’s dangerous and demanding work. They volunteered without fanfare, fully aware that they would be deployed to combat theaters, rifle in hand. Their willingness to go in harm’s way is the essence of service and sacrifice.

Even Americans who opposed U.S. operations in Iraq or Afghanistan can appreciate the worth of such badly-needed qualities, today, in every walk of our often-troubled national life. These qualities are important because the interests of Maryland and our nation often demand that elected representatives in Congress, regardless of party, cross swords with the people who govern us from the White House, the Pentagon and other Executive branch departments and independent agencies.

Staring down the President, the Pentagon, a massive bureaucracy, or your own party leadership to serve the people takes genuine courage. But that is a House member’s duty, regardless of the political consequences. Armed forces veterans — particularly those with combat experience in the ranks — understand and have lived the duties of self-sacrifice and courage. They are less likely to become the star-struck cheerleaders for bad military, foreign, and domestic policy which, sadly, populate Congress today.

Service, seasoning and wisdom matter. Marylanders have had a bellyful of tough-talking lightweights in public life. Mr. Vogt is a step forward. He is the Republican primary candidate who has demonstrated the courage, seasoning and experience required to represent Marylanders well.

Mr. Vogt’s Afghanistan service in the U.S. Marine Corps did not make him a better American than his electoral opponents. But it will make him a better member of the U.S. Congress.

I’ll leave aside the question of Douglas’s backing vis-a-vis the question of establishment vs. conservative for the moment, because it’s worth pointing out that Bongino and Douglas were rivals for the same job last year, and the backbone of Richard’s campaign was his foreign policy experience as well as his tenure as a Senate staffer. At the same time, the question of Afghanistan was still in the air and Dan made a compelling case for pulling out, which automatically and immediately puts him at loggerheads with the Afghan campaign veteran Vogt. For that reason alone, I’m not surprised at this endorsement, which could help Vogt most in the extreme western part of the district where Douglas prevailed in the 2012 primary.

But this is also shaping up to be yet another establishment vs. outsider proxy battle, with Bongino again playing the role of outsider against Douglas in an election with few established names. It’s true that Vogt has no elected political experience, but the same could be said for Douglas – yet he was embraced by a number of MDGOP insiders as well as those inside the Beltway.

I find it interesting, though, that Bongino hasn’t chosen to begin rolling out endorsements yet. Maybe he feels less need to since it’s implied that many of those who backed his Senate run will do the same for a Congressional bid, but if Vogt’s ball keeps rolling he could make it a race. While it’s very unscientific, the most recent Red Maryland poll gives Bongino a solid – but not convincing – 17-point edge. Considering his name recognition from being on the ballot last year, that’s got to be too close for comfort.

So how will Dan Bongino play this? I can only speculate, but I suspect the big push will begin after Labor Day and it will center on pocketbook issues.

Meanwhile, there are some in the online media who are questioning the way the Vogt campaign is being run, particularly staffing decisions. There’s no question that Dan Bongino has rubbed some in the Maryland GOP the wrong way, but one name in particular continues to pop up on the radar screen of Jeff Quinton and his Quinton Report, and apparently that person is now involved in Vogt’s campaign as well.

Leaving aside the personality aspect, Jeff makes a valid point – why would a story like this be buried on a weekend? (I received this word before this evening, but it was embargoed to today and I respected the campaign’s wishes.) One might posit that a release on Saturday assures more attention during a slow news period and perhaps placement in the Sunday paper, but having done this gig for awhile I know the ebb and flow of readership and when certain material works best and Saturday is an unusual day for political activity like this. And having noticed a similar line on a Facebook posting from Monday, arguably that would have been the time to lead with it if the endorsement were in the can.

So far we have proven that first-time campaigners make mistakes. The question is whether the unforced errors will doom the Vogt campaign.

The tax-free year?

As an opponent is wont to do, yesterday David Craig released a criticism of the state’s tax-free week program:

Anything that gives Marylanders some tax relief is better than nothing, and it’s a recognition from a stubborn political monopoly about the need to spur the economy, but the need for a so-called ‘tax free week’ raises a broader issue. Why is it just for a week, and why do politicians decide what items qualify?

State government has collected nearly $4 billion since the enactment of a 20% sales tax increase in 2007. That is a lot of back to school clothes, and handing out some extra pocket change for shoes, shirts and pants is a sorry pittance considering this regressive, harmful tax hits working people the hardest.

Considering Craig comes from a county that’s a half-hour drive from a locality which has “tax-free forseeable perpetuity” – and isn’t afraid to trumpet that fact in every advertisement bargain-hungry Marylanders see – he raises the right question. But what is the answer?

According to the state’s latest budget summary, the sales tax raises $4.3 billion a year. So even if it were a “true” tax-free week, we would only lose about $83 million in total. Given the vast limitations on what can be purchased, I would figure the state is “sacrificing” no more than $10 million to tell the voters they care. (On a side note, the sales tax is only 12% of revenue but Uncle Sam is 27 percent, supplying $9.8 billion to prop up Maryland.)

So to me Craig’s question is valid, but I would go further and make the case that the state could do without the sales tax and be just fine. It’s 1/8 of the revenue, but consider the same budget document I refer to notes the difference between FY2012 and FY2014 spending is $3.47 billion. Just cutting the budget to FY2012 levels obviates the need for 3/4 of the sales tax revenue and I’d be pretty confident increased economic activity would cover the rest. Delaware may piss and moan about lost business, but that would be their problem. They still have an easier go of adjusting their casinos to market conditions thanks to our shortsightedness, so there’s always that.

Looking at that Maryland state budget, it’s also worth mentioning that eliminating the corporate income tax entirely would “cost” the state $1.091 billion – an amount almost exactly equal to the difference between the FY2013 and FY 2014 budgets. So maybe the sales tax stays for the interim – and remember, that $4.3 billion will likely go up somewhat because gasoline is now subject to a 1% sales tax, or about 3.5 cents per gallon – but we eliminate the corporate income tax and level-fund the budget. There are all kinds of ways to make the numbers work, with the key idea being maximizing the number of dollars in Marylanders’ wallets, not Annapolis coffers.

Of course, we know the media and Democrats (but I repeat myself) would scream bloody murder; to them I say: we tried it your way, and it’s becoming clear we have an utter failure on our hands. It’s time for the adults to take over again.

Shorebird of the Week – August 8, 2013

Aside from the time he’s been out of the lineup with an injury, it’s clear that, unlike some other Shorebird campaigns, there is a definite #1 catcher and Wynston Sawyer is the guy. He’s caught in more games than the other catchers on the roster combined, and if he can stay at his offensive level shown so far this season Sawyer has the potential to post a number of career bests among his four years in the Orioles’ organization.

With a career-high 5 RBI last night on a three-run homer and two-run double, Sawyer’s average moved up to .249, with a career best 6 home runs and 27 RBI. His .759 OPS to date is by far a career pinnacle, nearly 150 points above his lifetime average coming into 2013. (OPS is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage – the league average is around .700, so Sawyer is showing above-average ability.)

Perhaps one reason for Sawyer’s improvement is the fact he’s almost exclusively a catcher now. In previous seasons Wynston spent plenty of time playing at first base, with a nearly even split between the positions last season. But this year he’s only played at first once, although it was fairly recently (July 29.)

Sawyer, who doesn’t turn 22 until November, came out of Scripps Ranch High School in California as an 8th round pick in 2010 but has never really shown a great bat. If anything, it was consistent because Sawyer had hit .231, .231, and .221 his first three seasons. The .221 mark was at Delmarva last season, where he had a line of .221/2/49/.608 OPS. Over the years, though, Wynston has shown himself to have good strike zone knowledge as his ratio of walks to strikeouts has improved each season.

But after flying out of the gate with a .351 average in April, Sawyer crashed back to earth with a subpar May and June. At the All-Star break Wynston was in his usual .230s rut, but lately the bat has heated up and four of his six home runs have been hit in the season’s second half. With a lack of catching depth in the organization, the opportunity is there for Sawyer to be promoted by next year.